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Susceptibility to classical bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) has been linked to 23 bp indel in promoter and 12 bp indel in the first intron of cattle prion protein gene. This study aimed to investigate 23/12 bp indel polymorphisms in the polymorphisms in cattle prion protein ( PRNP ) gene to reveal the risk of BSE in Ethiopian cattle. Also, frequency of each polymorphism was compared to the other Bos taurus and Bos indicus breeds. According to results, the insertion variant was detected at a low frequency in all of the study populations at both loci. The 23 bp insertion allele in Fogera breed was relatively lower than Borona and Arsi and the same allele at the same locus in Afar breed was higher than the rest of the breeds (0.16). Due to high linkage disequilibrium (LD) of the deletion allele in Bos taurus , the frequencies of deletion allele at 23 bp (0.84) and 12 bp (0.86) loci in Afar breed were relatively closer than the rest of the breeds. In addition, DD/DD was found as the highly frequent diplotype in all of the breeds. The low frequency of insertion alleles at 23 and 12 bp indel sites demonstrate that Ethiopian cattle have a genetically high risk for BSE.

Since 2004, a novel bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), distinct from the conventional 'classical BSE' (C-BSE), has been reported as an atypical BSE. Atypical BSE is detected mostly in aged cattle, and it is suggested that atypical BSE may occur spontaneously. Relaxation of the relevant countermeasures such as feed ban, which prevents the use of bovine meat-and-bone meal as feed, has been discussed in recent years owing to the decrease in C-BSE cases. If atypical BSE occurs spontaneously without exposure to an agent called abnormal prion protein (PrP Sc ), complete removal of these measures will be difficult. In this study, we verified the possibility that L-BSE, which is a subtype of atypical BSE, occurs spontaneously. We first hypothesized that L-BSE occurs only through the process of infection via oral exposure. If the hypothesis was true, the infection of L-BSE would be mostly limited to calves under 1 year of age due to their high susceptibility, and the feed ban would effectively reduce the number of infected calves by birth cohort. Thus, we created a mathematical model to estimate the number of infected calves by birth cohort and compared the effectiveness of the feed ban on C-BSE and L-BSE. The number of tested animals and detected cases in nine European countries were used for this analysis. Our results showed that the estimated number of infected calves in the birth cohort indicated that feed ban was less effective on L-BSE. This result supports the alternative hypothesis that at least a part of the L-BSE can occur without infection via oral exposure. Our results suggest that the complete abolition of countermeasures, such as feed ban, should be discussed carefully. As for the occurrence mechanism, although there remains uncertainty to reach conclusions, it is reasonable to assume that L-BSE can occur spontaneously at present., (© 2021 Wiley-VCH GmbH.)

Early in this century, the crisis connected to the spread of bovine spongiform encephalopathy caused a great concern related to the use of animal by-products (ABPs). According to the Commission Regulation (EU) No 1069/2009, these materials are classified in three categories according to their related risk. In 2011 Commission Regulation (EU) No 142/2011 established that meat and bone meal (MBM) and fat deriving from ABPs not intended for human consumption (category 1 and 2) are required to be permanently marked with glyceroltriheptanoate (GTH), at a minimum concentration of 250 mg kg -1 of fat, while category 3 processed animal proteins (PAPs) must not contain this compound. PAPs are bio resources, which could be used in a renewable and regenerative way in a circular economy model for a conscious usage of raw materials. The aim of this study was to provide information on GTH occurrence in MBM and, if any, in PAPs. Samples were collected from 2017 to 2021 and analysed by GC-MS. Detected non-compliant samples were exclusively of MBM category 1 and 2, probably due to the addition of an inadequate amount of GTH during the manufacturing processes. These results highlighted the importance of National Monitoring Programs as a useful tool to minimise safety related risk due to the misuse of GTH. Thus, investigating the critical points in feed supply-chain and sharing the information on its occurrence may help to improve animal and human wellness and safety.

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is a kind of prion disease caused by proteinase K-resistant prion protein (PrP Sc ) in cattle. Although BSE has been reported worldwide, BSE-infected cases have never been reported in Korea. In a previous study, we identified BSE-related somatic mutation E211K in 3 Korean Holstein cattle. In Korea, the BSE surveillance system has been established. However, several genetic factors have not been controlled simultaneously thus far. In the present study, we performed enhanced surveillance of prion disease-related factors in Korean cattle, including Holstein cattle and Hanwoo (Korean native cattle), which is widely raised for meat. We investigated the germline mutation E211K at codon 211 of the PRNP gene and analysed genotype, allele and haplotype frequencies of the 23- and 12-bp insertion/deletion polymorphisms of the PRNP gene using direct DNA sequencing. In addition, we investigated linkage disequilibrium (LD) and compared haplotype distributions of polymorphisms among cattle breeds. Furthermore, we carried out BSE diagnosis in the medulla oblongata (MO) of Korean cattle including 3 Korean Holstein cattle carrying somatic mutation E211K using Western blotting analysis. We did not find the E211K mutation in the PRNP gene in any of the Korean cattle and found significantly different genotype, allele and haplotype distributions of the 23- and 12-bp insertion/deletion polymorphisms of the PRNP gene in male Holstein compared with male Hanwoo, female Hanwoo and total Hanwoo. In addition, only male Holstein showed weak LD between 23- and 12-bp insertion/deletion polymorphisms. Furthermore, the PrP Sc bands were not detected in all Korean cattle tested. To the best of our knowledge, the enhanced surveillance system of BSE was conducted for the first time in Korean cattle., (© 2021 Wiley-VCH GmbH.)

Background: Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is an emerging zoonotic disease of cattle associated with pathological prion protein (PrP sc ) transmitted via meat and bone meal (MBM). Although Bangladesh did not experience a BSE outbreak but the country could not export animal products to developed countries as has not yet been declared BSE free country by OIE due to lack of scientific risk evaluation for BSE. The objectives were identification of hazard, release and exposure pathways of pathological prion protein through MBM and analysis of risk for the occurrence of BSE in Bangladesh., Methods: The scientific data were reviewed, hazards were scheduled and surveys were conducted on livestock production system, import of MBM and its use to identify the hazards present in Bangladesh context. The analysis was done by the 'OIE Risk Analysis Framework 2006 and European Union (EU) Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) 2003'. From the historical reviews, import of MBM and its use was identified, as external hazards., Results: The analysis revealed that these hazards had negligible or moderate risk for the introduction of infectious PrP sc as Bangladeshi cattle are vegetarian cattle. No milk replacer was used and use of slaughtered waste in the animal feed industry is absent. Unconsumable bones are processed to produce bone chips, fertilizers and bone meal for poultry feeds. Scrapie was never prevalent in Bangladesh. Therefore, risk from the internal challenge was negligible in Bangladesh for the occurrence of classical BSE. These prevented the propagation of BSE infectivity and eliminated BSE infectivity from the system very fast, if that was present., Conclusions: It was concluded that introduction of PrP sc into cattle population of Bangladesh through MBM was very negligible. Therefore, Bangladesh can be considered as BSE negligible risk country., (© 2021 The Authors. Veterinary Medicine and Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Quantitative risk assessments for Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) necessitate estimates for key parameters such as the prevalence of infection, the probability of absence of infection in defined birth cohorts, and the numbers of BSE-infected, but non-detected cattle entering the food chain. We estimated three key parameters with adjustment for misclassification using the German BSE surveillance data using a Gompertz model for latent (i.e., unobserved) age-dependent detection probabilities and a Poisson response model for the number of BSE cases for birth cohorts 1999 to 2015. The models were combined in a Bayesian framework. We estimated the median true BSE prevalence between 3.74 and 0.216 cases per 100,000 animals for the birth cohorts 1990 to 2001 and observed a peak for the 1996 birth cohort with a point estimate of 16.41 cases per 100,000 cattle. For birth cohorts ranging from 2002 to 2013, the estimated median prevalence was below one case per 100,000 heads. The calculated confidence in freedom from disease (design prevalence 1 in 100,000) was above 99.5% for the birth cohorts 2002 to 2006. In conclusion, BSE surveillance in the healthy slaughtered cattle chain was extremely sensitive at the time, when BSE repeatedly occurred in Germany (2000-2009), because the entry of BSE-infected cattle into the food chain could virtually be prevented by the extensive surveillance program during these years and until 2015 (estimated non-detected cases/100.000 [95% credible interval] in 2000, 2009, and 2015 are 0.64 [0.5,0.8], 0.05 [0.01,0.14], and 0.19 [0.05,0.61], respectively).

Treatment with human pituitary-derived growth hormone (hGH) was responsible for a significant proportion of iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (iCJD) cases. France and the UK experienced the largest case numbers of hGH-iCJD, with 122 and 81 cases respectively. Differences in the frequency of the three PRNP codon 129 polymorphisms (MM, MV and VV) and the estimated incubation periods associated with each of these genotypes in the French and the UK hGH-iCJD cohorts led to the suggestion that the prion strains responsible for these two hGH-iCJD cohorts were different. In this study, we characterized the prion strains responsible for hGH-iCJD cases originating from UK (n = 11) and France (n = 11) using human PrP expressing mouse models. The cases included PRNP MM, MV and VV genotypes from both countries. UK and French sporadic CJD (sCJD) cases were included as controls. The prion strains identified following inoculation with hGH-iCJD homogenates corresponded to the two most frequently observed sCJD prion strains (M1 CJD and V2 CJD ). However, in clear contradiction to the initial hypothesis, the prion strains that were identified in the UK and the French hGH-iCJD cases were not radically different. In the vast majority of the cases originating from both countries, the V2 CJD strain or a mixture of M1 CJD  + V2 CJD strains were identified. These data strongly support the contention that the differences in the epidemiological and genetic profiles observed in the UK and France hGH-iCJD cohorts cannot be attributed only to the transmission of different prion strains., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Widespread dietary exposure of the population of Britain to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) prions in the 1980s and 1990s led to the emergence of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD) in humans. Two previous appendectomy sample surveys (Appendix-1 and -2) estimated the prevalence of abnormal prion protein (PrP) in the British population exposed to BSE to be 237 per million and 493 per million, respectively. The Appendix-3 survey was recommended to measure the prevalence of abnormal PrP in population groups thought to have been unexposed to BSE. Immunohistochemistry for abnormal PrP was performed on 29,516 samples from appendices removed between 1962 and 1979 from persons born between 1891 through 1965, and from those born after 1996 that had been operated on from 2000 through 2014. Seven appendices were positive for abnormal PrP, of which two were from the pre-BSE-exposure era and five from the post BSE-exposure period. None of the seven positive samples were from appendices removed before 1977, or in patients born after 2000 and none came from individuals diagnosed with vCJD. There was no statistical difference in the prevalence of abnormal PrP across birth and exposure cohorts. Two interpretations are possible. Either there is a low background prevalence of abnormal PrP in human lymphoid tissues that may not progress to vCJD. Alternatively, all positive specimens are attributable to BSE exposure, a finding that would necessitate human exposure having begun in the late 1970s and continuing through the late 1990s.

Purpose: In the late1990s, reacting to the outbreak of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the United Kingdom that caused a new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) in humans, manufacturers withdrew bovine heparin from the market in the United States. There have been growing concerns about the adequate supply and safety of porcine heparin. Since the BSE epidemic has been declining markedly, the US Food and Drug Administration reevaluates the vCJD risk via use of bovine heparin., Methods: We developed a computational model to estimate the vCJD risk to patients receiving bovine heparin injections. The model incorporated information including BSE prevalence, infectivity levels in the intestines, manufacturing batch size, yield of heparin, reduction in infectivity by manufacturing process, and the dose-response relationship., Results: The model estimates a median risk of vCJD infection from a single intravenous dose (10 000 USP units) of heparin made from US-sourced bovine intestines to be 6.9 × 10 -9 (2.5-97.fifth percentile: 1.5 × 10 -9 -4.3 × 10 -8 ), a risk of 1 in 145 million, and 4.6 × 10 -8 (2.5-97.fifth percentile: 1.1 × 10 -8 -2.6 × 10 -7 ), a risk of 1 in 22 million for Canada-sourced products. The model estimates a median risk of 1.4 × 10 -7 (2.5-97.fifth percentile: 2.9 × 10 -8 -9.3 × 10 -7 ) and 9.6 × 10 -7 (2.5-97.fifth percentile: 2.1 × 10 -7 -5.6 × 10 -6 ) for a typical treatment for venous thromboembolism (infusion of 2-4 doses daily per week) using US-sourced and Canada-sourced bovine heparin, respectively., Conclusions: The model estimates the vCJD risk from use of heparin when appropriately manufactured from US or Canadian cattle is likely small. The model and conclusions should not be applied to other medicinal products manufactured using bovine-derived materials., (Published 2020. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.)

Human prion diseases are classified into sporadic, genetic, and acquired forms. Within this last group, iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (iCJD) is caused by human-to-human transmission through surgical and medical procedures. After reaching an incidence peak in the 1990s, it is believed that the iCJD historical period is probably coming to an end, thanks to lessons learnt from past infection sources that promoted new prion prevention and decontamination protocols. At this point, we sought to characterise the biomarker profile of iCJD and compare it to that of sporadic CJD (sCJD) for determining the value of available diagnostic tools in promptly recognising iCJD cases. To that end, we collected 23 iCJD samples from seven national CJD surveillance centres and analysed the electroencephalogram and neuroimaging data together with a panel of seven CSF biomarkers: 14-3-3, total tau, phosphorylated/total tau ratio, alpha-synuclein, neurofilament light, YKL-40, and real-time quaking induced conversion of prion protein. Using the cut-off values established for sCJD, we found the sensitivities of these biomarkers for iCJD to be similar to those described for sCJD. Given the limited relevant information on this issue to date, the present study validates the use of current sCJD biomarkers for the diagnosis of future iCJD cases., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Objective: To assess whether the involvement of the peripheral nervous system (PNS) belongs to the phenotypic spectrum of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD)., Methods: We examined medical records of 117 sCJDVV2 (ataxic type), 65 sCJDMV2K (kuru-plaque type) and 121 sCJDMM(V)1 (myoclonic type) subjects for clinical symptoms, objective signs and neurophysiological data. We reviewed two diagnostic nerve biopsies and looked for abnormal prion protein (PrP Sc ) by western blotting and real-time quaking-induced conversion (RT-QuIC) in postmortem PNS samples from 14 subjects., Results: Seventy-five (41.2%) VV2-MV2K patients, but only 11 (9.1%) MM(V)1, had symptoms or signs suggestive of PNS involvement occurring at onset in 18 cases (17 VV2-MV2K, 9.3%; and 1 MM(V)1, 0.8%) and isolated in 6. Nerve biopsy showed a mixed predominantly axonal and demyelinating neuropathy in two sCJDMV2K. Electromyography showed signs of neuropathy in half of the examined VV2-MV2K patients. Prion RT-QuIC was positive in all CJD PNS samples, whereas western blotting detected PrP Sc in the sciatic nerve in one VV2 and one MV2K., Conclusions: Peripheral neuropathy, likely related to PrP Sc deposition, belongs to the phenotypic spectrum of sCJDMV2K and VV2 and may mark the clinical onset. The significantly lower prevalence of PNS involvement in typical sCJDMM(V)1 suggests that the PNS tropism of sCJD prions is strain dependent., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) or prion diseases of animals notably include scrapie in small ruminants, chronic wasting disease (CWD) in cervids and classical bovine spongiform encephalopathy (C-BSE). As the transmission barrier phenomenon naturally limits the propagation of prions from one species to another, and the lack of epidemiological evidence for an association with human prion diseases, the zoonotic potential of these diseases was for a long time considered negligible. However, in 1996, C-BSE was recognized as the cause of a new human prion disease, variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD), which triggered an unprecedented public health crisis in Europe. Large-scale epidemio-surveillance programs for scrapie and C-BSE that were implemented in the EU after the BSE crisis revealed that the distribution and prevalence of prion diseases in the ruminant population had previously been underestimated. They also led to the recognition of new forms of TSEs (named atypical) in cattle and small ruminants and to the recent identification of CWD in Europe. At this stage, the characterization of the strain diversity and zoonotic abilities associated with animal prion diseases remains largely incomplete. However, transmission experiments in nonhuman primates and transgenic mice expressing human PrP clearly indicate that classical scrapie, and certain forms of atypical BSE (L-BSE) or CWD may have the potential to infect humans. The remaining uncertainties about the origins and relationships between animal prion diseases emphasize the importance of the measures implemented to limit human exposure to these potentially zoonotic agents, and of continued surveillance for both animal and human prion diseases., (© 2019 International Society of Neuropathology.)

Prions cause fatal and transmissible neurodegenerative diseases, including Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in humans, scrapie in small ruminants, and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). After the BSE epidemic, and the associated human infections, began in 1996 in the United Kingdom, general concerns have been raised about animal prions. We detected a prion disease in dromedary camels (Camelus dromedarius) in Algeria. Symptoms suggesting prion disease occurred in 3.1% of dromedaries brought for slaughter to the Ouargla abattoir in 2015-2016. We confirmed diagnosis by detecting pathognomonic neurodegeneration and disease-specific prion protein (PrP Sc ) in brain tissues from 3 symptomatic animals. Prion detection in lymphoid tissues is suggestive of the infectious nature of the disease. PrP Sc biochemical characterization showed differences with BSE and scrapie. Our identification of this prion disease in a geographically widespread livestock species requires urgent enforcement of surveillance and assessment of the potential risks to human and animal health.

In several EU member states, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) cases have been identified in cattle born after the reinforced ban (BARB cases), for reasons that are not entirely clear. Epidemiological investigation of these cases has proved challenging. The European Food Safety Authority recently recommended the collection of a predefined set of epidemiological data from BSE suspects and confirmed BSE cases to aid future investigations. In this study, we present an epidemiological framework and BSE investigation questionnaire to aid the investigation of suspect BSE cases, and illustrate its application during the investigation of a BSE case in Ireland in 2015. It is recommended that the framework and questionnaire are used concurrently: the framework provides structure and focus, whereas the questionnaire (with 135 questions) aids data collection. The framework focuses on confirmation and discrimination, estimating the date and location of exposure, and determining the method/source of exposure. The BSE case in Ireland in 2015 was a BARB case born in 2010. It was identified with classical BSE at an authorised knackery as part of Ireland's targeted active surveillance programme for BSE. No definitive source of infection with the BSE agent could be attributed in this case., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© British Veterinary Association (unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is the only animal prion disease that has been demonstrated to be zoonotic, causing variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) in humans. The link between BSE and vCJD was established by careful surveillance, epidemiologic investigations, and experimental studies using in vivo and in vitro models of cross-species transmission. Similar approaches have been used to assess the zoonotic potential of other animal prion diseases, including atypical forms identified through active surveillance. There is no epidemiologic evidence that classical or atypical scrapie, atypical forms of BSE, or chronic wasting disease (CWD) is associated with human prion disease, but the limitations of the epidemiologic data should be taken into account when interpreting these results. Transmission experiments in nonhuman primates and human PrP transgenic mice suggest that classic scrapie, L-type atypical BSE (L-BSE), and CWD may have zoonotic potential, which for L-BSE appears to be equal to or greater than that of classic BSE. The results of in vitro conversion assays to analyze the human transmission barrier correlate well with the in vivo data. However, it is still difficult to predict the likelihood that an animal prion disease will transmit to humans under conditions of field exposure from the results of in vivo or in vitro experiments. This emphasizes the importance of continuing systematic surveillance for both human and animal prion diseases in identifying zoonotic transmission of diseases other than classic BSE., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

This chapter describes the prion diseases of cattle, or bovine transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (BoTSEs). "Classic" bovine spongiform encephalopathy (C-BSE), the major prion protein disorder of Bovidae, was first described in 1986. We also describe the spatiotemporal correlation of C-BSE to a novel form of human prion disease, variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD), which led to the classification of BSE as a zoonotic disease (and the "cause" of vCJD) in 1996. From isolated cases first identified retrospectively in May 1985, a major bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic peaked within the British Isles in 1991, and has so far led to over 195,000 confirmed cases in cattle, and several thousand more cases within Europe and a few elsewhere. By 2017, the disease had been essentially eradicated below the level of surveillance detection in Europe, although sporadic cases are still predicted to show up for several years to come. By 2004, other forms of BSE, H-type and L-type, had been recognized and, in the absence of information to the contrary, are also included in the classification of BSE as a zoonotic prion disease of bovine origin. This chapter aims to cover the clinical, epidemiologic, neuropathologic, biochemical, biomarker, and pathogenetic aspects of the bovine prion disease and gives a brief, but important, description of the surveillance of BSE and other animal TSEs in Europe., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) are an important public health concern. Since the emergence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) during the 1980s and its link with human Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, active surveillance has been a key element of the European Union's TSE control strategy. Success of this strategy means that now, very few cases are detected compared with the number of animals tested. Refining surveillance strategies would enable resources to be redirected towards other public health priorities. Cost-effectiveness analysis was performed on several alternative strategies involving reducing the number of animals tested for BSE and scrapie in Great Britain and, for scrapie, varying the ratio of sheep sampled in the abattoir to fallen stock (which died on the farm). The most cost-effective strategy modelled for BSE involved reducing the proportion of fallen stock tested from 100% to 75%, producing a cost saving of ca GBP 700,000 per annum. If 50% of fallen stock were tested, a saving of ca GBP 1.4 million per annum could be achieved. However, these reductions are predicted to increase the period before surveillance can detect an outbreak. For scrapie, reducing the proportion of abattoir samples was the most cost-effective strategy modelled, with limited impact on surveillance effectiveness., (This article is copyright of The Authors, 2017.)

Occasional cases of classical bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) still continue to occur within the European Union (EU) for animals born after reinforced feed bans (BARBs), which should in theory have eliminated all risk of infection. The study aimed to determine (i) whether a common rate of decline of BSE infection was evident across EU member states, i.e. to determine whether control measures have been equally effective in all member states, (ii) whether there was any evidence of spontaneous occurrence of BSE in the data and (iii) the expected date for the last BSE case in UK. It was found that there was no significant difference in the rate of decline of BSE prevalence between member states, with a common rate of decline of 33·9% per annum (95% CI 30·9-37%) in successive annual birth cohorts. Trend analysis indicated an ultimate decline to 0 prevalence, suggesting that spontaneous occurrence does not explain the majority of cases. Projecting forward the trends from the back-calculation model indicated that there was approximately a 50% probability of further cases in the UK, and should the current rate of decline continue, there remains the possibility of further occasional cases up until 2026.

A classical type of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (C-BSE), recognized in 1987, had a large impact on public health due to its zoonotic link to variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease by the human consumption of dietary products contaminated with the C-BSE prion. Thus, a number of countries implemented BSE surveillance using rapid post-mortem test kits that were approved for detection of the C-BSE prion in the cattle brain. However, as atypical BSE (L- and H-BSE) cases emerged in subsequent years, the efficacy of the kits for the detection of atypical BSE prions became a matter of concern. In response to this, laboratories in the European Union and Canada evaluated the kits used in their countries. Here, we carried out an evaluation study of NippiBL®, a kit currently used for BSE screening in Japan. By applying the kit to cattle brains of field cases of C-BSE and L-BSE, and an experimental case of H-BSE, we showed its comparable sensitivities to C, L-, and H-BSE prions, and satisfactory performance required by the European Food Safety Authority. In addition to NippiBL®, two kits (TeSeE® and FRELISA®) formerly used in Japan were effective for detection of the L-BSE prion, although the two kits were unable to be tested for the H-BSE prion due to the discontinuation of domestic sales during this study. These results indicate that BSE screening in Japan is as effective as those in other countries, and it is unlikely that cases of atypical BSE have been overlooked.

During the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in July 2001 the European Commission established a surveillance scheme for the comprehensive sampling of all BSE clinical suspects, healthy slaughter (HS) animals >30months, and all emergency slaughter and fallen stock animals tested when >24months. With the exponential decline in classical BSE cases, this comprehensive surveillance system has been successively modified to become risk-based, targeting those exit streams and ages where cases from the original epidemic are most likely to be detected. Such reductions in testing are not without losses in the information subsequently collected, which could affect the sensitivity of the surveillance system to relatively small changes in the underlying prevalence of BSE across the European Union (EU). Here we report on a cohort-based approach to estimate the time taken for EU surveillance to observe a theoretical re-emergence of BSE in cattle. A number of surveillance schemes were compared. The baseline scheme considered detection being triggered by at least one case in the 'age window' 48-72 months in the fallen stock or emergency slaughter exit streams. Alternative schemes changed the start and end of this age window as well as considering testing for HS cattle. Under the baseline scheme, an estimated 15 years would lapse ([2.5th, 97.5th] percentiles=[10,24]) prior to detection, during which time 2867 infected animals ([2.5th, 97.5th]=[1722,6967]) would enter the slaughter population. These animals would be predominantly young animals (majority <24months) showing no clinical signs. This baseline scheme reduced the time to detection by 2 years, compared to a scheme where only clinical suspects were tested assuming BSE symptoms are recognised to the same degree by veterinary surgeons. Additional testing of younger animals did not improve detection as young infected animals were unlikely to test positive, but testing of older animals reduced the time to detection. Testing of HS animals >72months reduced the time to detection by one year compared to the baseline model, but would incur a high financial cost, e.g. testing HS animals >72months of age for 14 years would entail approximately 50.4 million additional tests. A limitation of the results is that there is no guarantee that current detection methods, optimised for detection of classical BSE, would identify a novel prion disease in cattle and it is currently difficult to envisage plausible routes by which a re-emergence of classical BSE could occur in Europe., (Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

We report the diagnostic sensitivity of 3 EU-approved rapid tests (ELISAs; 1 from IDEXX and 2 from Bio-Rad) for the detection of transmissible spongiform encephalopathy diseases in goats. Ninety-eight goat brainstem samples were tested. All the rapid tests had 100% specificity and ≥80% sensitivity, with the IDEXX test significantly more sensitive than the 2 Bio-Rad tests. All tests detected 100% of samples from goats with clinical scrapie, but missed 8% (IDEXX) to 33% (Bio-Rad SG) of samples from preclinical goats. Importantly, only IDEXX picked up all samples from clinical bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE)-infected goats, whereas the other 2 rapid tests missed 15% (Bio-Rad SG) to 25% (Bio-Rad SAP). These results show that a fraction of preclinical scrapie infections are likely missed by EU surveillance, with sensitivity of detection strongly dependent on the choice of the rapid test. Moreover, a significant proportion of clinical BSE infections are underestimated by using either Bio-Rad test. Assuming that the same sensitivity on preclinical goats would also occur in BSE-infected goats, our data suggest that IDEXX is likely the most sensitive test for detecting preclinical field cases of BSE infection in goats, although with an 8% failure rate. These results raise some concerns about the reliability of current EU surveillance figures on BSE infection in goats.

To determine oral transmissibility of the L-type bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) prion, we orally inoculated 16 calves with brain homogenates of the agent. Only 1 animal, given a high dose, showed signs and died at 88 months. These results suggest low risk for oral transmission of the L-BSE agent among cattle.

Background: The polymorphism at codon 129 of the prion protein gene (PRNP) and the PrPSc types 1 and 2 belong to a molecular classification of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD) that correlates well with the clinical and neuropathological phenotype of sCJD., Objective: The aim of the study was to perform the first detailed evaluation of neuropsychological deficits in a large group of definite sCJD patients with known molecular subtype., Methods: We analyzed neuropsychological symptoms in a cohort of 248 sCJD patients with known M129 V polymorphism of PRNP and prion protein type., Results: Neuropsychological symptoms were very frequent in our patients (96%) and occurred as early as in the first third of the disease course. Besides amnesia and impaired attention (89% each), frontal lobe syndrome (75%), aphasia (63%), and apraxia (57%) were the most common neuropsychological deficits. There was no statistically significant difference with regard to frequency of neuropsychological symptoms between the subtypes. In MV2 and VV2 patients, the onset of neuropsychological symptoms was significantly later than in all other subtypes., Conclusion: We provide the first detailed analysis of neuropsychological symptoms in a large group of sCJD patients with known M129 V genotype and prion protein type. We suggest that the rate of progression of neuropsychological symptoms is subtype-specific. These data may improve the diagnosis in atypical sCJD subtypes.

After thirty years, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) still represents the biggest crisis in the field of food safety. Initially detected in the United Kingdom in 1986, BSE spread to many other countries all over the world, involving approximately 200,000 cattle. The origin of BSE is uncertain, but epidemiological studies suggest that the source was cattle feed prepared from prion-infected animal tissues. The implementation of the drastic measures, including the ban of meat and bone meal from livestock feed and the removal of specified risk material from the food chain, has eventually resulted in a significant decline of the epidemic. For many years, it was believed that the disease was caused by transmission of a single prion strain. However, since 2004 two types of BSE, with distinct phenotypical characteristics, have been detected in Italy and France. These atypical types are characterized by distinct Western Blot profiles of abnormal protease-resistant prion protein, named high-type (H-BSE) and low-type (L-BSE). At present, there is no comprehensive information about the origin of the atypical BSEs (sporadic vs. acquired), and data about the pathogenesis of both atypical forms are very limited as compared to the classical type (C-BSE). This chapter will provide a well-organized overview of what is known about classical and atypical BSE. It will review information on the main epidemiological features, pathogenesis, and the criteria for routine diagnosis based on rapid tests, histological, immunohistochemical, and Western blot analysis. Furthermore, a brief overview about the most recently in vitro techniques will be also provided., (© 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

European surveillance for Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), initiated in 2001, has shown a steady exponential decline in the number of infected cattle, demonstrating that control measures have been effective. In 2016 23 European countries out of 28 demonstrated negligible risk status for the disease. The international standard setting body, the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), prescribes that for countries where there is a non-negligible BSE risk, surveillance should allow the detection of one case per 100,000 in the adult cattle population with 95% confidence (Type A surveillance). The Cattle TSE Monitoring Model (C-TSEMM) was developed to estimate the sensitivity of surveillance systems to detect BSE in cattle. The model includes a cohort-based back calculation model to estimate the number and age of infected animals, the subset of those that are detectable by the diagnostic test, and the stream by which infected animals exit the standing population, that is, healthy slaughter, emergency slaughter, fallen stock and clinical suspects. Data collected by the European Commission (EC) and European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), containing the details of over 91 million cattle tested within the European Member States (EU25) surveillance scheme from 2002 to 2011, was used to populate the model. When considering the EU25 surveillance scheme as a single epidemiological unit, the model estimated that the surveillance scheme in place exceeded the OIE required threshold for Type A surveillance, and that a revised monitoring system excluding all healthy slaughter animals would also exceed this threshold. Results indicated a variation in individual country sensitivity of surveillance with seven countries (Germany, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, Poland and the UK) exceeding the required threshold individually. Key assumptions included the fitting of an exponential distribution for all countries to describe the decline in prevalence over time and, for those members with no detected cases of BSE, an estimated area prevalence was used as a proxy. These results were part of the evidence base that lifted the testing requirement for healthy slaughter animals in European countries in 2013. The model has been maintained and updated by EFSA each year with the addition of new member states, and updated surveillance data., (Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

As of mid-2016, 231 cases of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease-the human form of a prion disease of cattle, bovine spongiform encephalopathy-have been reported from 12 countries. With few exceptions, the affected individuals had histories of extended residence in the UK or other Western European countries during the period (1980-96) of maximum global risk for human exposure to bovine spongiform encephalopathy. However, the possibility remains that other geographic foci of human infection exist, identification of which may help to foreshadow the future of the epidemic. We report results of a quantitative analysis of country-specific relative risks of infection for three individuals diagnosed with variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the USA and Canada. All were born and raised in Saudi Arabia, but had histories of residence and travel in other countries. To calculate country-specific relative probabilities of infection, we aligned each patient's life history with published estimates of probability distributions of incubation period and age at infection parameters from a UK cohort of 171 variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease cases. The distributions were then partitioned into probability density fractions according to time intervals of the patient's residence and travel history, and the density fractions were combined by country. This calculation was performed for incubation period alone, age at infection alone, and jointly for incubation and age at infection. Country-specific fractions were normalized either to the total density between the individual's dates of birth and symptom onset ('lifetime'), or to that between 1980 and 1996, for a total of six combinations of parameter and interval. The country-specific relative probability of infection for Saudi Arabia clearly ranked highest under each of the six combinations of parameter × interval for Patients 1 and 2, with values ranging from 0.572 to 0.998, respectively, for Patient 2 (age at infection × lifetime) and Patient 1 (joint incubation and age at infection × 1980-96). For Patient 3, relative probabilities for Saudi Arabia were not as distinct from those for other countries using the lifetime interval: 0.394, 0.360 and 0.378, respectively, for incubation period, age at infection and jointly for incubation and age at infection. However, for this patient Saudi Arabia clearly ranked highest within the 1980-96 period: 0.859, 0.871 and 0.865, respectively, for incubation period, age at infection and jointly for incubation and age at infection. These findings support the hypothesis that human infection with bovine spongiform encephalopathy occurred in Saudi Arabia., (© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2016. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Public Health.)

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) created a global European crisis in the 1980s and 90s, with very serious health and economic implications. Classical BSE now appears to be under control, to a great extent as a result of a global research effort that identified the sources of prions in meat and bone meal (MBM) and developed new animal-testing tools that guided policy. Priority ( www.prionpriority.eu ) was a European Union (EU) Framework Program 7 (FP7)-funded project through which 21 European research institutions and small and medium enterprises (SMEs) joined efforts between 2009 and 2014, to conduct coordinated basic and applied research on prions and prion diseases. At the end of the project, the Priority consortium drafted a position paper ( www.prionpriority.eu/Priority position paper) with its main conclusions. In the present opinion paper, we summarize these conclusions. With respect to the issue of re-introducing ruminant protein into the feed-chain, our opinion is that sustaining an absolute ban on feeding ruminant protein to ruminants is essential. In particular, the spread and impact of non-classical forms of scrapie and BSE in ruminants is not fully understood and the risks cannot be estimated. Atypical prion agents will probably continue to represent the dominant form of prion diseases in the near future in Europe. Atypical L-type BSE has clear zoonotic potential, as demonstrated in experimental models. Similarly, there are now data indicating that the atypical scrapie agent can cross various species barriers. More epidemiological data from large cohorts are necessary to reach any conclusion on the impact of its transmissibility on public health. Re-evaluations of safety precautions may become necessary depending on the outcome of these studies. Intensified searching for molecular determinants of the species barrier is recommended, since this barrier is key for important policy areas and risk assessment. Understanding the structural basis for strains and the basis for adaptation of a strain to a new host will require continued fundamental research, also needed to understand mechanisms of prion transmission, replication and how they cause nervous system dysfunction and death. Early detection of prion infection, ideally at a preclinical stage, also remains crucial for development of effective treatment strategies.

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) appeared in the United Kingdom in the mid 1980s, and has been attributed to the use of meat and bone meal (MBM) in cattle feed contaminated with a scrapie-like agent. Import of infectious materials from a country where BSE has occurred is believed to be the major factor underlying the spread of the BSE epidemic to other countries. This study presents a new stochastic model developed to estimate risk of BSE from importation of cattle infected with the BSE agent. The model describes the propagation of the BSE agent through the Canadian cattle herd through rendering and feeding processes, following importation of cattle with infectious prions. This model was used estimate the annual number of newly infected animals each year over the period 1980-2019. Model predictions suggested that the number of BSE infections in Canada might have been approximately 40-fold greater than the actual number of clinically diagnosed cases. Under complete compliance with the 2007 ban on feeding MBM, this model further predicts that BSE is disappearing from the Canadian cattle system. A series of sensitivity analyses was also conducted to test the robustness of model predictions to alternative assumptions about factors affecting the evolution of the Canadian BSE epidemic.

Seventeen typical cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) were detected in Canada the period of 2003-2011. The clinical incidence of BSE was censored by early slaughter, death, or exportation of infected cattle due to the long incubation period of BSE disease. The aim of this study was to estimate the infection incidence of BSE in birth cohorts during 1996-2004 and project infection frequency through to 2007. An estimate of the number of asymptomatic infected cattle slaughtered for human consumption is also provided. The number of incident, asymptomatic cases was assumed to follow a Poisson process. A Bayesian back-calculation approach was used to project the risk of contracting BSE in those birth cohorts. Model parameters and inputs were taken from scientific literature and governmental data sources. The projected number of infected cattle in birth cohorts spanning the period 1996-2007 was 492, with median 95% credible interval 258-830. If the requirement to remove specified risk material (SRM) from cattle prior to entering the food chain was not in place, the predicted number of slaughtered infected in the human food chain from 1996-2010 was 298, with a 95% credible interval 156-500. The magnitude of the BSE epidemic in Canada for 1996-2007 birth cohorts was estimated to be approximately 28-fold higher than the number of clinical cases detected through to October 2011. Although some of those cattle were slaughtered for human consumption, the requirement of SRM removal may have prevented most of the infectious material from entering the food chain.

The epidemics of classical bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) related to BSE-infected food are coming to an end. The decline in concern about these diseases may invite complacency and questions whether surveillance for human prion diseases is still necessary. This article reviews the main points of surveillance and why it is still needed: animal sources for human prion infection other than BSE cannot be excluded; the potentially increasing circulation of prions between humans by blood, blood products and medical procedures; the prevalence of vCJD prion carriers in the UK; and the scientific study of prion diseases as paradigm for other neurodegenerative diseases with "prion-like" spread of pathological proteins. We conclude that continuation of detailed surveillance of human prion disorders would be prudent in view of all these points that deserve clarification.

Although there is a long tradition of research on animal disease control, economic evaluation of control measures is rather limited in veterinary medicine. This may, on the one hand, be due to the different types of costs and refunds and the different people and organizations bearing them, such as animal holders, county, region, state or European Union, but it may also be due to the fact that economic analyses are both complex and time consuming. Only recently attention has turned towards economic analysis in animal disease control. Examples include situations, when decisions between different control measures must be taken, especially if alternatives to culling or compulsory vaccination are under discussion. To determine an optimal combination of control measures (strategy), a cost-benefit analysis should be performed. It is not necessary to take decisions only based on the financial impact, but it becomes possible to take economic aspects into account. To this end, the costs caused by the animal disease and the adopted control measures must be assessed. This article presents a brief overview of the methodological approaches used to retrospectively analyse the economic impact of two particular relevant diseases in Germany in the last few years: Blue-tongue disease (BT) and Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE).

On February 11, 2015, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency announced that a cow born and raised in Alberta had tested positive for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), commonly known as mad cow disease. BSE is a prion disease of cattle that, when transmitted to humans, produces a fatal neurodegenerative disease known as variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. We believe that this latest case of BSE in Canadian cattle suggests the timeliness of a review of the management of BSE in Canada from a historically and scientifically informed perspective. In this article, we ask: how did the Canadian management of BSE between 1990 and 2014 engage with the contemporary understanding of BSE's human health implications? We propose that Canadian policies largely ignored the implicit medical nature of BSE, treating it as a purely agricultural and veterinary issue. In this way, policies to protect Canadians were often delayed and incomplete, in a manner disturbingly reminiscent of Britain's failed management of BSE. Despite assurances to the contrary, it is premature to conclude that BSE (and with it the risk of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease) is a thing of Canada's past: BSE remains very much an issue in Canada's present.

Human prion diseases are a group of very rare diseases with a unique pathogenesis and, due to an inauspicious prognosis and unavailability of therapy, with fatal consequences. The etiopathogenetic background is the presence of pathologically misfolded prion protein, highly resistant to denaturation, the aggregation and presence of which in the brain tissue causes irreversible neuronal damage. The most frequent prion disease in humans is Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) which occurs in sporadic, hereditary/familial, or acquired/infectious/iatrogenic forms. A new form of CJD, variant CJD, is considered to be linked to dietary exposure to beef products from cattle infected with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and to infection via blood transfusion. The clinical picture of these diseases is characterized by a rapidly progressing dementia, cerebellar and extrapyramidal symptoms, and rather specific MRI, EEG, and CSF findings. Clinically, the diagnosis is described as possible or probable prion disease and needs to be confirmed by neuropathological or immunological investigation of the brain tissue. Epidemiological data from the Czech Republic spanning the last decade are presented.

Many human neurodegenerative diseases are associated with hyperphosphorylation and widespread intra-neuronal and glial associated aggregation of the microtubule associated protein tau. In contrast, animal tauopathies are not reported with only senescent animals showing inconspicuous tau labelling of fine processes albeit significant tau aggregation may occur in some experimental animal disease. Since 1986, an idiopathic neurological condition of adult cattle has been recognised in the UK as a sub-set of cattle slaughtered as suspect bovine spongiform encephalopathy cases. This disorder is characterised by brainstem neuronal chromatolysis and degeneration with variable hippocampal sclerosis and spongiform change. Selected cases of idiopathic brainstem neuronal chromatolysis (IBNC) were identified from archive material and characterised using antibodies specific to several tau hyperphosphorylation sites or different isoforms of the tau microtubule binding region. Labelling was also carried out for alpha synuclein, ubiquitin, TDP43, Aβ 1-42, Aβ 1-40. Widespread tau labelling was identified in all IBNC brains examined and with each of seven tau antibodies recognising different hyperphosphorylated sites. Labelling with each antibody was associated with dendrites, neuronal perikarya and glia. Thus IBNC is a sporadic, progressive neurological disease predominantly affecting aged cattle that occurs throughout the UK and is associated with hyperphosphorylation of tau, a rare example of a naturally-occurring tauopathy in a non-primate species. Secondary accumulation of alpha synuclein and ubiquitin was also present. The neuropathology does not precisely correspond with any human tauopathy. The cause of IBNC remains undetermined but environmental factors and exposure to agrochemicals needs to be considered in future aetiological investigations.

European red deer (Cervus elaphus elaphus) are susceptible to the agent of bovine spongiform encephalopathy, one of the transmissible spongiform encephalopathies, when challenged intracerebrally but their susceptibility to alimentary challenge, the presumed natural route of transmission, is unknown. To determine this, eighteen deer were challenged via stomach tube with a large dose of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy agent and clinical signs, gross and histological lesions, presence and distribution of abnormal prion protein and the attack rate recorded. Only a single animal developed clinical disease, and this was acute with both neurological and respiratory signs, at 1726 days post challenge although there was significant (27.6%) weight loss in the preceding 141 days. The clinically affected animal had histological lesions of vacuolation in the neuronal perikaryon and neuropil, typical of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies. Abnormal prion protein, the diagnostic marker of transmissible encephalopathies, was primarily restricted to the central and peripheral nervous systems although a very small amount was present in tingible body macrophages in the lymphoid patches of the caecum and colon. Serial protein misfolding cyclical amplification, an in vitro ultra-sensitive diagnostic technique, was positive for neurological tissue from the single clinically diseased deer. All other alimentary challenged deer failed to develop clinical disease and were negative for all other investigations. These findings show that transmission of bovine spongiform encephalopathy to European red deer via the alimentary route is possible but the transmission rate is low. Additionally, when deer carcases are subjected to the same regulations that ruminants in Europe with respect to the removal of specified offal from the human food chain, the zoonotic risk of bovine spongiform encephalopathy, the cause of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, from consumption of venison is probably very low.

When the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic first emerged in the United Kingdom in the mid 1980s, the etiology of animal prion diseases was largely unknown. Risk management efforts to control the disease were also subject to uncertainties regarding the extent of BSE infections and future course of the epidemic. As understanding of BSE increased, mathematical models were developed to estimate risk of BSE infection and to predict reductions in risk in response to BSE control measures. Risk models of BSE-transmission dynamics determined disease persistence in cattle herds and relative infectivity of cattle prior to onset of clinical disease. These BSE models helped in understanding key epidemiological features of BSE transmission and dynamics, such as incubation period distribution and age-dependent infection susceptibility to infection with the BSE agent. This review summarizes different mathematical models and methods that have been used to estimate risk of BSE, and discusses how such risk projection models have informed risk assessment and management of BSE. This review also provides some general insights on how mathematical models of the type discussed here may be used to estimate risks of emerging zoonotic diseases when biological data on transmission of the etiological agent are limited.

During the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic, Portugal was the third most affected country. As a result of a successful national eradication plan, the number of BSE affected animals has been progressively declining in Portugal with no cases identified in 2013. However, within the scope of this active surveillance scheme, we have identified the first H-type BSE case born after the introduction of the reinforced ban in fallen stock. Here, we report the phenotypic features of this case and the analysis of the protein coding sequence of prnp as well as the prnp promoter and intron 1 insertion-deletions.

Using a stochastic simulation model, we estimated the effectiveness of the three BSE interventions (SRM removal, post-mortem testing and cohort culling) in Japan, in terms of the amount of bovine ID50 that would be prevented from entering the human food supply and the number of life years that would be saved from resulting vCJD cases. The average reduction of the BSE load on the human food supply under SRM removal was 97% over the period from 2002 to 2009. The average reduction of the BSE load under most-mortem testing was 83% over the period from 2002 to 2007. The risk reducing effect of the three interventions combined was 99%. The maximum number of life years saved by the three interventions combined was 40.84 in 2006., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

We investigated major factors underlying an unusual 2008 public 'candlelight protest' in South Korea about US beef imports related to concerns about bovine spongiform encephalopathy. Using a survey we explored determinants of consumer responses to negative publicity in mass media. Respondents (80.7 per cent) reduced consumption of imported beef during the scare; of those 62.5 per cent decreased consumption of US beef only. We explain the determinants in order of their importance and define the relevant terms from a theory of consumer behavior in economics. Our findings suggest that several effects worked jointly in their influence on most respondents who reduced beef consumption.

Background: Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) is transmitted by blood transfusion. To mitigate the risk of transfusion-transmitted vCJD (TTvCJD), the US Food and Drug Administration has recommended deferral of potential at-risk blood donors, but some risk remains. We describe a quantitative risk assessment to estimate residual, postdeferral TTvCJD risk in the United States., Study Design and Methods: We assumed that certain US donors may have acquired vCJD infection through dietary exposure to the agent of bovine spongiform encephalopathy during time spent in the United Kingdom, France, and other countries in Europe. Because of uncertainties regarding the prevalence of vCJD in the United Kingdom, we used both low and high UK prevalence estimates as model inputs. The model estimated the risk of infection from a transfusion in year 2011 and the cumulative risk from 1980 through 2011. The model was validated by comparing the model predictions with reported cases of vCJD., Results: Using the low UK prevalence estimate, the model predicted a mean risk of 1 in 134 million transfusions, zero TTvCJD infections acquired in the year 2011, and zero cumulative clinical TTvCJD cases for the period spanning 1980 to 2011. With the high UK prevalence estimate, the model predicted a mean risk of 1 in 480,000 transfusions, six infections for 2011, and nine cumulative clinical cases from 1980 to 2011., Conclusions: Model validation exercises indicated that predictions based on the low prevalence estimate are more consistent with clinical cases actually observed to date, implying that the risk, while highly uncertain, is likely very small., (Published 2014. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.)

We estimated the infection prevalence of BSE in Japanese cattle born in the period 2000-2012, using maximum likelihood methods and BSE surveillance data of these birth cohorts. From this, we predicted the number of infected cattle and test positives in years 2004-2020. Assuming that the infection prevalence decayed exponentially over time from 2000, the infection prevalence of the 2000 birth cohort was estimated to be 0.00058 which declined exponentially by 0.115 times per year in the following years. The number of infected cattle was calculated to have peaked in 2005 and would be zero by 2020. The number of test positives was calculated to have peaked in 2005 and would be zero by 2012. The number of BSE cases actually detected was within the 95% confidence interval of the predicted numbers. The detectable prevalence (predicted number of test positives/number of cattle tested) was predicted to be highest in 2005. In this year it was predicted that one animal out of 160,000 tested would test positive. The detectable prevalence would decline exponentially to zero in the subsequent years., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)