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BACKGROUND: Following the first locally transmitted case in Sukhbaatar soum, Selenge Province, we aimed to investigate the ultimate scale of the epidemic in the scenario of uninterrupted transmission. METHODS: This was a prospective case study following the locally modified WHO FFX cases generic protocol. A rapid response team collected data from November 14 to 29, 2020. We created a stochastic process to draw many transmission chains from this greater distribution to better understand and make inferences regarding the outbreak under investigation. RESULTS: The majority of the cases involved household transmissions (35, 52.2%), work transmissions (20, 29.9%), index (5, 7.5%), same apartment transmissions (2, 3.0%), school transmissions (2, 3.0%), and random contacts between individuals transmissions (1, 1.5%). The posterior means of the basic reproduction number of both the asymptomatic cases R 0 Asy $$ {R}_0^{Asy} $$ and the presymptomatic cases R 0 Pre $$ {R}_0^{Pre} $$ (1.35 [95% CrI 0.88-1.86] and 1.29 [95% CrI 0.67-2.10], respectively) were lower than that of the symptomatic cases (2.00 [95% Crl 1.38-2.76]). CONCLUSION: Our study highlights the heterogeneity of COVID-19 transmission across different symptom statuses and underscores the importance of early identification and isolation of symptomatic cases in disease control. Our approach, which combines detailed contact tracing data with advanced statistical methods, can be applied to other infectious diseases, facilitating a more nuanced understanding of disease transmission dynamics.

BackgroundModern oil development frequently occurs in close proximity to human populations. Los Angeles, California is home to the largest urban oil field in the country with thousands of active oil and gas wells in very close proximity to homes, schools and parks, yet few studies have investigated potential health impacts. The neighborhoods along the Las Cienagas oil fields are situated in South LA, densely populated by predominantly low-income Black and Latinx families, many of whom are primarily Spanish-speakers.MethodsA cross-sectional community-based study was conducted between January 2017 and August 2019 among residents living

Early diagnosis and treatment of infectious tuberculosis (TB) is essential to the attainment of global targets specified in the End TB Strategy. Using case-based TB surveillance data, we analysed delays in health seeking, diagnosis and treatment among TB patients in Mongolia from 2018 to 2021. We calculated the median and interquartile range (IQR) for "diagnostic delay", defined as the time from symptom onset to diagnosis, subdivided into "health-seeking delay" (time from symptom onset to first visit to a health facility) and "health facility diagnostic delay" (time from first health facility visit to diagnosis), and for "treatment delay", defined as the time from diagnosis to start of treatment. We also calculated "total delay", defined as the time from symptom onset to treatment start. Based on data for 13 968 registered TB patients, the median total delay was estimated to be 37 days (IQR, 19-76). This was mostly due to health-seeking delay (median, 23 days; IQR, 8-53); in contrast, health facility diagnostic delay and treatment delay were relatively short (median, 1 day; IQR, 0-7; median, 1 day; IQR, 0-7, respectively). In 2021, health-seeking delay did not differ significantly between men and women but was shorter in children than in adults and shorter in clinically diagnosed than in bacteriologically confirmed TB cases. Health-seeking delay was longest in the East region (median, 44.5 days; IQR, 20-87) and shortest in Ulaanbaatar (median, 9; IQR, 14-64). TB treatment delay was similar across sexes, age groups and types of TB diagnosis but slightly longer among retreated cases and people living in Ulaanbaatar. Efforts to reduce TB transmission in Mongolia should prioritize decreasing delays in health seeking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]