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Abstract: Developed countries are increasingly dependent on international trade to meet seafood requirements, which has important social, environmental, and economic implications. After becoming an independent coastal state following Brexit, the UK faces increased trade barriers and changes in seafood availability and cost. We compiled a long-term (120-year) dataset of UK seafood production (landings and aquaculture), imports, and exports, and assessed the influence of policy change and consumer preference on domestic production and consumption. In the early twentieth century, distant-water fisheries met an increasing demand for large, flaky fish such as cod and haddock that are more abundant in northerly waters. Accordingly, from 1900 to 1975, the UK fleet supplied almost 90% of these fish. However, policy changes in the mid-1970s such as the widespread establishment of Exclusive Economic Zones and the UK joining the European Union resulted in large declines in distant-water fisheries and a growing mismatch between seafood production versus consumption in the UK. While in 1975, UK landings and aquaculture accounted for 89% of seafood consumed by the British public, by 2019 this was only 40%. The combination of policy changes and staunch consumer preferences for non-local species has resulted in today's situation, where the vast majority of seafood consumed in the UK is imported, and most seafood produced domestically is exported. There are also health considerations. The UK public currently consumes 31% less seafood than is recommended by government guidelines, and even if local species were more popular, total domestic production would still be 73% below recommended levels. In the face of climate change, global overfishing and potentially restrictive trade barriers, promoting locally sourced seafood and non-seafood alternatives would be prudent to help meet national food security demands, and health and environmental targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecologists and managers need to understand what types of communities emerge with continued human alterations to ecosystems against a background of natural change. Both natural and anthropogenic drivers are well known to affect organisms' distributions; however, it often remains unclear where along a range of environmental and anthropogenic gradients important compositional community changes occur.We used a big‐data approach, including over 175,000 presence records of benthic genera for the North Sea, to identify environmental (bed shear stress, sediment grain size, temperature) and anthropogenic parameters (trawling effort) driving benthic community composition over a 21‐year period. We applied a Gradient Forest analysis, based on Random Forests, to estimate the locations and importance of thresholds where small cumulative increases in the predictors drive a much greater change in genus composition than would be expected from linear effects.Shear stress was the most important predictor of benthic community composition. Trawling effort, temperature gradients and sediment grain size were of intermediate importance. This corroborates that current and wave effects (typically associated with seabed substrate types) are primary determinants of benthic communities.Our results suggest that a genus composition threshold for both infauna and epifaunal benthic communities is crossed when the seafloor is trawled as little as once every 4 years. Higher trawling levels corresponded with gradual compositional change without obvious thresholds, which would be consistent with chronic fishing in the North Sea over the last two centuries having caused persistent, long‐term changes in ecosystem structure and functioning. This was corroborated by the large‐scale spatial patterns of benthic community composition undergoing limited temporal changes during the 21‐year study period.Synthesis and applications. Although well established in theory, threshold effects are poorly validated in the field. We generated new information on multi‐organism responses to environmental change at the scale of a continental shelf ecosystem and over a multi‐decadal time period. This will help pure and applied scientists better understand the conditions under which community thresholds are crossed and provide environmental managers with empirical evidence that is expected to reduce uncertainty regarding decisions on the protection and sustainable use of the marine environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Commonwealth of Dominica is a Small Island Developing State in the eastern Caribbean, that has been subject to a wide variety of natural hazards over the past century, most recently the Category 5—Hurricane Maria on 18–19 September 2017. In Dominica fishing remains important for income generation and for local food security. While there are small-scale reef and demersal fisheries, pelagic fisheries have tended to dominate in recent years and fishers make extensive use of Fish Aggregating Devices. Climate Vulnerability Assessments (CVAs) provide a coherent framework for evaluating potential impacts over a broad range of species, and also socio-ecological systems. These methods assess the "exposure" to a stressor (climate change and/or hurricane events), the "sensitivity" to that stressor, and the "adaptive capacity" within fishing communities faced with potential threats. These three components are then combined to estimate overall "vulnerability". In this study we make use of fisheries catch data from landing ports around Dominica, to assess how each of Dominica's ten parishes differ in terms of climate vulnerability. We examine information on species' temperature preferences and life-history traits as well as data on social vulnerability. We then compare our predictions with observed damage following Hurricane Maria, using the 2017 Post-disaster Needs Assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Studies focussing on long-term changes in squid populations are rare due to limited availability of fisheries-independent data. However, squid play an important role as predator and prey in marine food-webs and have also become an increasingly important target for fisheries. Their short life history is thought to make them particularly sensitive to changes in the environment, potentially leading to strong fluctuations in population size. Here, we investigate whether squid have increased in the North Sea, in terms of distribution and abundance, and whether these patterns are related to variability in environmental and climatic factors. Location North Sea, north-east Atlantic Ocean. Methods We extracted squid catches from a unique 35-year time series of bottom trawl survey data in the North Sea (1980-2014), collected during late summer (August-September). Changes in distribution and abundance were compared with climatic variables known to be linked with various ecosystem components in the area. Results We found that squid distribution across the North Sea increased over the 35-year time series. Loligo expanded southward from a predominantly north-easterly distribution, compared to northward expansions by Alloteuthis and the Ommastrephidae from their core distributions in the southern and central North Sea respectively. In addition, all squid species studied here displayed an overall increase in biomass over the time series and there were large annual fluctuations. Significantly positive relationships were found between this increase and climate variables for each of the dominant individual taxa studied and when all species were combined. Main conclusions The results suggest a strong causal relationship between climate variability, notably warming sea temperatures, and squid populations. At least for the last 35 years, climate change appears to have been largely favourable for squid and with changes in climate set to continue, squid may end up beneficiaries where many finfish struggle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a discipline, marine historical ecology (MHE) has contributed significantly to our understanding of the past state of the marine environment when levels of human impact were often very different from those today. What is less widely known is that insights from MHE have made head way into being applied within the context of present-day and long-term management and policy. This study draws attention to the applied value of MHE.We demonstrate that a broad knowledge base exists with potential for management application and advice, including the development of baselines and reference levels. Using a number of case studies from around the world,we showcase the value of historical ecology in understanding change and emphasize how it either has already informed management or has the potential to do so soon. We discuss these case studies in a context of the science-policy interface around six themes that are frequently targeted by current marine and maritime policies: climate change, biodiversity conservation, ecosystem structure, habitat integrity, food security, and human governance. We encourage science-policy bodies to actively engage with contributions from MHE, as well-informed policy decisions need to be framed within the context of historical reference points and past resource or ecosystem changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The large fish indicator (LFI), or ‘proportion of fish greater than 40 cm length in bottom trawl surveys,’ is a frequently debated indicator of Good Environmental Status in European regional seas. How does the LFI respond to changes in fishing pressure? This question is addressed here through analysis of fine-scale spatial trends in the LFI within the North Sea, compared between two periods of contrasting fisheries management: 1983–1999 and 2000–2012, respectively, before and after the onset of the European Union's fleet reduction scheme. Over the entire period, the LFI has decreased in large parts of the North Sea. However, most of the decline was from 1983–1999; since 2000 the LFI has improved in much of the North Sea, especially in UK waters. Comparison with international effort data shows that those western areas where the LFI has improved correspond with regions where otter trawl effort has decreased since 2000 (and previously was highest in the 1990s), and also with decreases in beam trawl effort. This study provides strong support that recent European effort reduction schemes are now beginning to result in an improved ecosystem state as indicated by the regional-scale improvement in the LFI. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Using analysis of field survey size-at-age data, we examine responses of European plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) to spatial differences in environmental variables in the North Sea. Using available samples of plaice aged 1–7, northern and southern migrating groups of males and females grew differently. However, length-at-age growth patterns were not corroborated by complementary otolith-based estimates. Southern females and males were smaller than their northern counterparts until age 3. Southern males remained smaller up to age 7; by contrast southern and northern females reached similar size-at-age by year 4. Due to covariation, the influence of spatially variable environmental conditions was equivocal. However, temperature, depth, fishing pressure, phosphate levels, distance from shore, and conspecific density were all significant predictors of size for plaice aged 1–7. Our results suggest that fishing impacts on age structure limit the potential to examine the role of environmental variation on body size. For fish that rarely reach their full potential age and size, expected metabolic responses to warming may remain unexpressed, challenging predictions in a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, spatial distributions of fish stocks are shifting but although the role of climate change in range shifts is increasingly appreciated, little remains known of the likely additional impact that high levels of fishing pressure might have on distribution. For North Sea cod, we show for the first time and in great spatial detail how the stock has shifted its distribution over the past 100 years. We digitized extensive historical fisheries data from paper charts in UK government archives and combined these with contemporary data to a time-series spanning 1913-2012 (excluding both World Wars). New analysis of old data revealed that the current distribution pattern of cod - mostly in the deeper, northern- and north-easternmost parts of the North Sea - is almost opposite to that during most of the Twentieth Century - mainly concentrated in the west, off England and Scotland. Statistical analysis revealed that the deepening, northward shift is likely attributable to warming; however, the eastward shift is best explained by fishing pressure, suggestive of significant depletion of the stock from its previous stronghold, off the coasts of England and Scotland. These spatial patterns were confirmed for the most recent 3½ decades by data from fisheries-independent surveys, which go back to the 1970s. Our results demonstrate the fundamental importance of both climate change and fishing pressure for our understanding of changing distributions of commercially exploited fish. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Managing fisheries resources to maintain healthy ecosystems is one of the main goals of the ecosystem approach to fisheries ( EAF). While a number of international treaties call for the implementation of EAF, there are still gaps in the underlying methodology. One aspect that has received substantial scientific attention recently is fisheries-induced evolution ( FIE). Increasing evidence indicates that intensive fishing has the potential to exert strong directional selection on life-history traits, behaviour, physiology, and morphology of exploited fish. Of particular concern is that reversing evolutionary responses to fishing can be much more difficult than reversing demographic or phenotypically plastic responses. Furthermore, like climate change, multiple agents cause FIE, with effects accumulating over time. Consequently, FIE may alter the utility derived from fish stocks, which in turn can modify the monetary value living aquatic resources provide to society. Quantifying and predicting the evolutionary effects of fishing is therefore important for both ecological and economic reasons. An important reason this is not happening is the lack of an appropriate assessment framework. We therefore describe the evolutionary impact assessment ( Evo IA) as a structured approach for assessing the evolutionary consequences of fishing and evaluating the predicted evolutionary outcomes of alternative management options. Evo IA can contribute to EAF by clarifying how evolution may alter stock properties and ecological relations, support the precautionary approach to fisheries management by addressing a previously overlooked source of uncertainty and risk, and thus contribute to sustainable fisheries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Engelhard, G. H., Peck, M. A., Rindorf, A., Smout, S. C., van Deurs, M., Raab, K., Andersen, K. H., Garthe, S., Lauerburg, R. A. M., Scott, F., Brunel, T., Aarts, G., van Kooten, T., and Dickey-Collas, M. Forage fish, their fisheries, and their predators: who drives whom? – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 71: .The North Sea has a diverse forage fish assemblage, including herring, targeted for human consumption; sandeel, sprat, and Norway pout, exploited by industrial fisheries; and some sardine and anchovy, supporting small-scale fisheries. All show large abundance fluctuations, impacting on fisheries and predators. We review field, laboratory, and modelling studies to investigate the drivers of this complex system of forage fish. Climate clearly influences forage fish productivity; however, any single-species considerations of the influence of climate might fail if strong interactions between forage fish exist, as in the North Sea. Sandeel appears to be the most important prey forage fish. Seabirds are most dependent on forage fish, due to specialized diet and distributional constraints (breeding colonies). Other than fisheries, key predators of forage fish are a few piscivorous fish species including saithe, whiting, mackerel, and horse-mackerel, exploited in turn by fisheries; seabirds and seals have a more modest impact. Size-based foodweb modelling suggests that reducing fishing mortality may not necessarily lead to larger stocks of piscivorous fish, especially if their early life stages compete with forage fish for zooplankton resources. In complex systems, changes in the impact of fisheries on forage fish may have potentially complex (and perhaps unanticipated) consequences on other commercially and/or ecologically important species. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: Latitudinal variation in life-history traits is often explained by phenotypically plastic responses or local adaptations to different thermal regimes. We compared growth, maturation schedules and reproductive investment of female sole Solea solea between 8 populations, covering much of the species' distribution in northern Europe, with respect to thermal gradients. An energy allocation model was fitted to size–age data, and probabilistic maturation reaction norms were estimated from size–age–maturity data. We found that northern populations from colder environments had higher rates of energy acquisition and reproductive investment, an intrinsic tendency to mature earlier, and had smaller asymptotic sizes than southern populations from warmer environments. Consequently, growth rate was higher before maturation but lower after maturation in the north compared to the south. This is opposite to Bergmann's rule according to which slower growth, delayed maturation and larger asymptotic sizes are usually observed at lower temperatures. The observed patterns could indicate strong countergradient thermal adaptation for rapid growth and development as well as sustained fecundity in the north, or indicate a response to other selection pressures correlated with the thermal gradient. Potentially higher mortality in northern populations during cold winters might be one of the key drivers of the observed geographical variation in growth and maturation of sole. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Engelhard, G. H., Pinnegar, J. K., Kell, L. T., and Rijnsdorp, A. D. 2011. Nine decades of North Sea sole and plaice distribution. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1090–1104.Recent studies based mainly on research survey data suggest that within the North Sea, sole Solea solea and plaice Pleuronectes platessa have exhibited distribution shifts in recent decades—on average southward for sole and northward to deeper waters for plaice. Various hypotheses may account for such shifts, including climate change effects and more intensive fishing in southern and shallower waters; but the relatively short time-span of datasets analysed so far (∼3 decades) has complicated the separation of these two effects. We have made use of a unique dataset of catch and effort data for British North Sea trawlers; these cover nine decades (spanning the period 1913–2007) and are spatially detailed by ICES rectangle (0.5° latitude by 1° longitude). We quantify, for the first time, long-term distribution changes of North Sea sole and plaice over a period approaching a century, and demonstrate that the distribution shift in plaice was attributable to climate change rather than to fishing, but that both climate and fishing played a role in the distribution shift of sole. The discussion also highlights the potential impact of additional factors, including eutrophication, prey availability, and habitat modification. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Engelhard, G. H., Ellis, J. R., Payne, M. R., ter Hofstede, R., and Pinnegar, J. K. 2011. Ecotypes as a concept for exploring responses to climate change in fish assemblages. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: .How do species-rich fish assemblages respond to climate change or to other anthropogenic or environmental drivers? To explore this, a categorization concept is presented whereby species are assigned with respect to six ecotype classifications, according to biogeography, horizontal and vertical habitat preference, trophic guild, trophic level, or body size. These classification schemes are termed ecotypology, and the system is applied to fish in the North Sea using International Bottom Trawl Survey data. Over the period 1977–2008, there were changes in the North Sea fish community that can be related to fish ecotypes. Broadly speaking, there were steady increases in abundance of species that were either Lusitanian, small-bodied, or low-/mid-trophic-level ecotypes, and generally declining or only marginally increasing trends of most Boreal, large-bodied, or high-trophic-level ecotypes or combinations of them. The post-1989 warm biological regime appears to have favoured pelagic species more than demersal species. These community-level patterns agree with the expected responses of ecotypes to climate change and also with anticipated vulnerability to fishing pressure. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The article discusses a study on the chick provisioning and growth in two procellariiforms, namely, the Antarctic Petrel Thalassoica antarctica and the Southern Fulmar Fulmarus glacialoides. The study procedure included the use of leg bands and electronic tags to mark approximately 80 percent of breeding adults. An automatic weighing and identification nest-system was developed by the authors to weight the species and read their transponder number. The growth rates of chicks were computed using the individual chick mass data gathered from the artificial nest system.

The Barents Sea is the north-eastern fringe of the distribution of blue whiting ( Micromesistius poutassou). Fluctuations in distribution and abundance of blue whiting in the area have been marked. Two hypotheses are put forward to explain these fluctuations. First, rich year classes in the main Atlantic stock of blue whiting may contribute to increased abundance in the Barents Sea. Second, variations in hydrography, such as influx of warm Atlantic water, may be particularly important in this fringe area. We investigated these hypotheses using data from bottom trawl surveys conducted during the period 1981–2006. Variations in abundance (measured either as incidence or density) and distribution were correlated with recruitment in the Atlantic stock of blue whiting as well as hydrographic conditions. Regression analyses indicated that the abundance fluctuations are primarily determined by variations in recruitment of Atlantic blue whiting, a strong year class leading to high abundance in the Barents Sea the year after spawning. However, salinity anomaly in the Fugløya–Bear Island transect during the previous year, an indicator of high inflow of Atlantic water, had also a significant, positive effect. Thus, the data suggested a climatic modulation of dynamics that were primarily determined by recruitment of blue whiting in the main Atlantic stock. Analyses of size structure as well as earlier studies on population genetics supported this conclusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is commonly assumed that iteroparous fish, once mature, normally reproduce in all consecutive seasons. Recent work has suggested, however, that in Norwegian spring-spawning herring—a population that undertakes extensive spawning migrations—almost one in two adults may skip their second spawning migration. Why should herring not return to spawn the year after first spawning, but instead wait an extra year? For herring, participation in distant, energetically costly, and risky spawning migrations will only pay off in terms of fitness if individuals are sufficiently large, and in sufficient condition, to both successfully migrate and spawn. Changes in the environment and individual condition should therefore affect the likelihood of skipped spawning. This paper describes long-term changes in the extent to which the second reproductive season is skipped in this herring population. These are shown to be linked to the size and condition of herring as first-time spawners, and to climatic factors possibly related to food availability. The findings corroborate the hypothesis that skipped reproduction results from trade-offs between current and future reproduction, growth and survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Norwegian spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus) population collapsed to the state of commercial extinction in the late 1960s; the stock remained at extremely low levels for over two decades, but has recovered fully since the 1980s. It is known that the collapse coincided with strong changes in maturation characteristics. However, the long-term patterns of maturation in this stock have remained largely undescribed. We applied discriminant and neural network analysis to historical scale data to predict age at maturation for individual herring of the year-classes 1930–1992. Based on these data, this paper (1) presents new, revised maturity ogives for these year-classes with a temporal resolution of 1 year and (2) describes the long-term variability in age at 50% maturity, length at 50% maturity, and length-at-age. This new information shows that during the period of low stock abundance, age at 50% maturity was considerably reduced and length at 50% maturity moderately increased as compared to the situation both before and after the collapse. These variations coincided with changes in length-at-age, suggesting that the maturity changes to a large extent reflect variations in body growth related with stock abundance. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The ‘immunocompetence handicap hypothesis’ predicts that highly sexually dimorphic and polygynous species will exhibit sex differences in immunity. We tested this hypothesis in southern elephant and grey seals during their early development by measuring the following parameters: leucocyte counts, serum IgG levels, erythrocyte sedimentation rate and haematocrit. We failed to find any differences due to sex as assessed by the parameters investigated. Animals were sampled longitudinally during their development and there were significant age effects from birth to weaning in both species. Total and differential leucocyte counts and erythrocyte sedimentation rates increased just prior to weaning then decreased. Haematocrits declined whilst total circulating immunoglobulin G concentrations increased. Body temperatures remained constant throughout the postnatal period. Differences between the species were seen in total leucocyte counts and in polymorphonuclear cells and eosinophils. Southern elephant seals had higher concentrations than grey seals and total leucocyte counts in the former were among the highest reported for mammals. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We evaluate two methods allowing the prediction of age at maturation from the widths of the annual growth layers in scales (or otoliths) in a case study on Norwegian spring-spawning herring. For this stock, scale measurements have been made routinely for many decades. We compare the performance in classifying age at maturation (at 3, 4,…,9 years) between conventional discriminant analysis (DA) and the new methodology of artificial neural networks (NN) trained by back-propagation against a ‘control’ of historical estimates of age at maturation obtained by visual examination of scales. Both methods show encouraging, and about equally high, classification success. The marginal differences in performance are in favour of DA, if the proportion of correctly classified cases is used as criterion (DA 68.0%, NN 66.6%), but in favour of NN if other criteria are used, including prediction error (error >1 year: DA 5.2%, NN 2.9%), and the average degree of under- or overestimation (underestimation 1.1% of mean with DA; overestimation 0.2% of mean with NN). Evidence is provided that both methods approach the a priori limits to maximal classification success, limits set by overlapping combinations of predictor variables between maturation groups. The methods allow studies on age at maturation in this stock over a very long timespan, including periods well before, during, and after its collapse to commercial extinction. Similar techniques might well be applicable to any other fish stock with long-term data on scale or otolith growth layers. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Serum clinical chemistry parameters were examined in lactating southern elephant seal Mirounga leonina mothers and their pups from the declining Macquarie Island population. There were significant changes in serum values from 2 to 21 days postpartum in both nursing mothers (increase: inorganic phosphate; decrease: creatinine, potassium, chloride, cholesterol, total protein, albumin, globulin, aspartate aminotransferase, creatine kinase) and suckling pups (increase: inorganic phosphate, globulin, cholesterol; decrease: albumin, alkaline phosphatase, gammaglutamyl transferase; increase followed by decrease: triglycerides, iron). We found no evidence that changes were due to chronic stress effects caused by repeated chemical immobilisations (mothers) or physical restraint (pups): at late lactation, clinical chemistry values were similar for mother–pup pairs of a control group (not handled previously), moderate treatment group (previously handled twice) and high treatment group (previously handled three to four times). We were not able to detect differences in clinical chemistry values between mother–pup pairs distributed over two areas differing in the frequency of human visits. The clinical chemistry values presented here can serve as reference ranges to allow future comparison with other southern elephant seal populations to investigate factors, e.g. food limitation, suspected to be involved in population declines. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Recreational fishing is popular worldwide, but many low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMICs) are experiencing increased participation and reduced catches. Like other LMICs, the recreational fishery in Namibia is facing concerns regarding its sustainability. Empirical evidence suggested limited knowledge of the fish and fishery as one plausible cause. Herein, we used a horizon scan survey to identify critical questions by anglers and decision makers to facilitate sustainable and adaptive management strategies. Of 115 questions and concerns raised by 59 stakeholders, including fisheries managers, anglers (specialists and non‐specialists), and scientists, 58 of the top research questions were organised within 11 high‐priority themes, including: governance; human dimensions; regulatory actions; compliance; knowledge of fish populations; resource monitoring and data acquisition; angler outreach, education, and engagement; competing sectors/groups; bioeconomics; catch‐and‐release practises and perceived threats. Questions raised by non‐specialist anglers differed from those raised by specialist anglers and scientists, which highlighted the potential importance of integrating fisher ecological knowledge into fishery management. Although questions were in the context of recreational fisheries, we recommend that some of the themes identified herein may be applicable to other LMICs and may also improve understanding of other fisheries, such as small‐scale or commercial fisheries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the majority of the global human population living in coastal regions, correctly characterizing the climate risk that ocean-dependent communities and businesses are exposed to is key to prioritizing the finite resources available to support adaptation. We apply a climate risk analysis across the European fisheries sector to identify the most at-risk fishing fleets and coastal regions and then link the two analyses together. We employ an approach combining biological traits with physiological metrics to differentiate climate hazards between 556 populations of fish and use these to assess the relative climate risk for 380 fishing fleets and 105 coastal regions in Europe. Countries in southeast Europe as well as the United Kingdom have the highest risks to both fishing fleets and coastal regions overall, while in other countries, the risk-profile is greater at either the fleet level or at the regional level. European fisheries face a diversity of challenges posed by climate change; climate adaptation, therefore, needs to be tailored to each country, region, and fleet’s specific situation. Our analysis supports this process by highlighting where and what adaptation measures might be needed and informing where policy and business responses could have the greatest impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fishing – especially trawling – is one of the most ubiquitous anthropogenic pressures on marine ecosystems worldwide, yet very few long-term, spatially explicit datasets on trawling effort exist; this greatly hampers our understanding of the medium- to long-term impact of trawling. This important gap is addressed here for the North Sea, a highly productive shelf sea which is also subject to many anthropogenic pressures. For a 31-year time span (1985–2015), we provide a gridded dataset of the spatial distribution of total international otter and beam trawling effort, with a resolution of 0.5 ∘ latitude by 1 ∘ longitude, over the North Sea. The dataset was largely reconstructed using compiled effort data from seven fishing effort time series, each covering shorter time spans and only some of the countries fishing the North Sea. For the years where effort data for particular countries were missing, the series was complemented using estimated (modelled) effort data. This new, long-term and large-scale trawling dataset may serve the wider scientific community, as well as those involved with policy and management, as a valuable information source on fishing pressure in a large marine ecosystem which is heavily impacted but which simultaneously provides a wealth of ecosystem services to society. The dataset is available on the Cefas Data Hub at: 10.14466/CefasDataHub.61, version 2 (Couce et al., 2019). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sympatric flatfish predators may partition their resources in coastal environments to reduce competition and maximise foraging efficiency. However, the degree of spatial and temporal consistency in their trophic ecology is not well understood because dietary studies tend to overlook the heterogeneity of consumed prey. Increasing the spatial and temporal scale of dietary analyses can thus help to resolve predator resource use. We applied a stomach content and multi‐tissue (liver and muscle) stable isotope (δ13C, δ15N and δ34S) approach to investigate the feeding habits of two co‐occurring flatfish predators, common dab (Limanda limanda) and European plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), across four bays on the Northumberland coast (UK) over short (hours), medium (days) and long (months) temporal scales. Stomach content analyses showed spatial consistencies in predator resource use, whereas stable isotope mixing models revealed considerable inter‐bay diet variability. Stomach contents also indicated high dietary overlap between L. limanda and P. platessa, while the stable isotope data yielded low to moderate levels of overlap, with cases of complete niche separation. Furthermore, individual specialisation metrics indicated consistently low levels of specialisation among conspecifics over time. We document changes in resource partitioning in space and time, reflecting diet switching in response to local and temporal fluctuations of patchily distributed prey. This study highlights how trophic tracers integrated at multiple temporal and spatial scales (within tens of kilometres) provide a more integrative approach for assessing the trophic ecology of sympatric predators in dynamic environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fishing – especially trawling – is one of the most ubiquitous anthropogenic pressures on marine ecosystems worldwide, yet very few long-term, spatially explicit datasets on trawling effort exist; this greatly hampers our understanding of the medium- to long-term impact of trawling. This important gap is addressed here for the North Sea, a highly productive shelf sea which is also subject to many anthropogenic pressures. For a 31-year time span (1985–2015), we provide a dataset on the spatial distribution of total international otter and beam trawling effort, for all ICES rectangles (0.5° latitude by 1° longitude) of the North Sea. The dataset was largely reconstructed using compiled effort data from 7 fishing effort time-series, each covering shorter time spans and some of the countries fishing the North Sea only. For the years where effort data for particular countries were missing, the series was complemented using estimated (modelled) effort data. This new, long-term and large-scale trawling dataset may serve the wider scientific community, as well as those involved with policy and management, as a valuable information source on fishing pressure in a Large Marine Ecosystem which is heavily impacted, but which simultaneously provides a wealth of ecosystem services to society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study addresses a common assumption in fisheries science: that partial fishing mortality is directly proportional to fishing effort. It is important to challenge this a priori sensible assumption, as it is also built into many models and tools used by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) to help provide advice and conserve fish stocks. Here we test this assumption at scales relevant to management using catch and effort data from the EC Scientific, Technical and Economic Committee for Fisheries (STECF), together with mean fishing mortality estimates from ICES. We focus on the eight predominant fishing gear types in the North Sea, and for each gear, test how effort is related to partial fishing mortality exerted by each gear on their main target species. For many gear types, the relationships found were not inconsistent with the assumption being tested, although in many cases there was also no significant pattern between fishing mortality and effort. Fishing mortality-effort relationships can be complex, as exemplified by the frequent lack of significant relationships in mixed demersal fisheries. The relationship between fishing mortality and effort can also vary over time, particularly in response to changes in catchability, producing patterns that can be difficult to uncover. These factors may significantly affect the impact management strategies may have on stocks and fleets. As tools are developed to provide mixed fisheries advice, we encourage efforts that help understand the implications of assumptions made for management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gadus morhua (Atlantic cod) stocks in the Barents Sea are currently at levels not seen since the 1950s. Causes for the population increase last century, and understanding of whether such large numbers will be maintained in the future, are unclear. To explore this, we digitised and interrogated historical cod catch and diet datasets from the Barents Sea. Seventeen years of catch data and 12 years of prey data spanning 1930–1959 cover unexplored spatial and temporal ranges, and importantly capture the end of a previous warm period, when temperatures were similar to those currently being experienced. This study aimed to evaluate cod catch per unit effort and prey frequency in relation to spatial, temporal and environmental variables. There was substantial spatio-temporal heterogeneity in catches through the time series. The highest catches were generally in the 1930s and 1940s, although at some localities more cod were recorded late in the 1950s. Generalized Additive Models showed that environmental, spatial and temporal variables are all valuable descriptors of cod catches, with the highest occurring from 15–45°E longitude and 73–77°N latitude, at bottom temperatures between 2 and 4°C and at depths between 150 and 250 m. Cod diets were highly variable during the study period, with frequent changes in the relative frequencies of different prey species, particularly Mallotus villosus (capelin). Environmental variables were particularly good at describing the importance of capelin and Clupea harengus (herring) in the diet. These new analyses support existing knowledge about how the ecology of the region is controlled by climatic variability. When viewed in combination with more recent data, these historical relationships will be valuable in forecasting the future of Barents Sea fisheries, and in understanding how environments and ecosystems may respond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Well-designed marine protected area ( MPA) networks can deliver a range of ecological, economic and social benefits, and so a great deal of research has focused on developing spatial conservation prioritization tools to help identify important areas., However, whilst these software tools are designed to identify MPA networks that both represent biodiversity and minimize impacts on stakeholders, they do not consider complex ecological processes. Thus, it is difficult to determine the impacts that proposed MPAs could have on marine ecosystem health, fisheries and fisheries sustainability., Using the eastern English Channel as a case study, this paper explores an approach to address these issues by identifying a series of MPA networks using the Marxan and Marxan with Zones conservation planning software and linking them with a spatially explicit ecosystem model developed in Ecopath with Ecosim. We then use these to investigate potential trade-offs associated with adopting different MPA management strategies., Limited-take MPAs, which restrict the use of some fishing gears, could have positive benefits for conservation and fisheries in the eastern English Channel, even though they generally receive far less attention in research on MPA network design., Our findings, however, also clearly indicate that no-take MPAs should form an integral component of proposed MPA networks in the eastern English Channel, as they not only result in substantial increases in ecosystem biomass, fisheries catches and the biomass of commercially valuable target species, but are fundamental to maintaining the sustainability of the fisheries., Synthesis and applications. Using the existing software tools Marxan with Zones and Ecopath with Ecosim in combination provides a powerful policy-screening approach. This could help inform marine spatial planning by identifying potential conflicts and by designing new regulations that better balance conservation objectives and stakeholder interests. In addition, it highlights that appropriate combinations of no-take and limited-take marine protected areas might be the most effective when making trade-offs between long-term ecological benefits and short-term political acceptability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Phenotypic traits such as peak spawning time may vary within and differ between populations in relation to environmental factors, such as temperature. Sole (Solea solea) is a valuable, commercially exploited species that spawns in late winter or spring. The date of peak spawning was estimated for each year for seven stocks from monthly fish samples collected from commercial fisheries since 1970. Four out of seven stocks showed a significant long-term trend towards earlier spawning (Irish Sea, east-central North Sea, southern North Sea, eastern English Channel) at a rate of 1.5weeks per decade. The other three stocks (Bristol Channel, western English Channel and western-central North Sea) failed to show a relationship, but the available time series were limited for these stocks (<10years). Sea surface temperature during winter significantly affected the date of peak spawning, although the effect differed between stocks. The implications of the effect of winter temperature on the timing of spawning for the population dynamics are discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Plirú, A., van der Kooij, J., Engelhard, G. H., Fox, C. J., Milligan, S. P., and Hunter, E. 2012. Sprat feeding behaviour, selective predation, and impact on plaice egg mortality. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: 1019–1029.Although the causes of fish egg and larval mortality are poorly understood, predation is thought to be a major contributing factor. The feeding behaviour of sprat at a plaice spawning ground in the Irish Sea during February 2009 is described and their contribution to plaice egg mortality investigated. Acoustic observations and analysis of stomach contents revealed diel behaviour, with dense schools associated with feeding formed during daylight dispersing into thinly spread aggregations at dusk. Of 338 stomachs analysed, 95% contained identifiable prey items. Feeding activity peaked between 10:00 and 18:00, for all food groups. Numerically, gadoid eggs were the most frequently consumed prey (64%), followed by copepods (25%) and plaice eggs (7%). Plaice eggs were present in 91% of the stomachs analysed. Converting stomach content data to daily consumption suggested that sprat may consume 73% of all plaice eggs spawned in the area. Predation by sprat appears to account for a large proportion of plaice egg mortality, so the abundance and distribution of this pelagic predator may have important consequences for the recruitment dynamics of other fish species. Moreover, fish eggs may be an important energy source for sprat during late winter, when alternative prey is scarce. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Rijnsdorp, A. D., Peck, M. A., Engelhard, G. H., Möllmann, C., and Pinnegar, J. K. 2009. Resolving the effect of climate change on fish populations. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1570–1583.This paper develops a framework for the study of climate on fish populations based on first principles of physiology, ecology, and available observations. Environmental variables and oceanographic features that are relevant to fish and that are likely to be affected by climate change are reviewed. Working hypotheses are derived from the differences in the expected response of different species groups. A review of published data on Northeast Atlantic fish species representing different biogeographic affinities, habitats, and body size lends support to the hypothesis that global warming results in a shift in abundance and distribution (in patterns of occurrence with latitude and depth) of fish species. Pelagic species exhibit clear changes in seasonal migration patterns related to climate-induced changes in zooplankton productivity. Lusitanian species have increased in recent decades (sprat, anchovy, and horse mackerel), especially at the northern limit of their distribution areas, while Boreal species decreased at the southern limit of their distribution range (cod and plaice), but increased at the northern limit (cod). Although the underlying mechanisms remain uncertain, available evidence suggests climate-related changes in recruitment success to be the key process, stemming from either higher production or survival in the pelagic egg or larval stage, or owing to changes in the quality/quantity of nursery habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: An ecosystem approach to the management of the marine environment has received considerable attention over recent years. However, there are few examples which demonstrate its practical implementation. Much of this relates to the history of existing marine monitoring and assessment programmes which (for many countries) are sectoral, making it difficult to integrate monitoring data and knowledge across programmes at the operational level. To address this, a scientific expert group, under the auspices of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES), prepared a plan for how ICES could contribute to the development of an Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (IEA) for the North Sea by undertaking a pilot study utilising marine monitoring data. This paper presents the main findings arising from the expert group and in particular it sets out one possible integrated approach for assessing the relative significance of environmental forcing and fishing pressure on the ecological status of the North Sea, it then compares the findings with assessments made of other Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs). We define the North Sea ecosystem on the basis of 114 state and pressure variables resolved as annual averages between 1983 and 2003 and at the spatial scale of ICES rectangles. The paper presents results of integrated time-series and spatial analysis which identifies and explains significant spatial and temporal gradients in the data. For example, a significant shift in the status of the North Sea ecosystem (based upon 114 state-pressure variables) is identified to have occurred around 1993. This corresponds to previously documented shifts in the environmental conditions (particularly sea surface temperature) and changes in the distribution of key species of plankton (Calanus sp.), both reported to have occurred in 1989. The difference in specific timing between reported regime shifts for the North Sea may be explained, in part, by time-lag dependencies in the trophic structure of the ecosystem with shifts in higher trophic levels occurring later than 1989. By examining the connection (or relatedness) between ecosystem components (e.g. environment, plankton, fish, fishery and seabirds) for the identified regime states (1983–1993; 1993–2003) we conclude that both the North Sea pelagic and benthic parts of the ecosystem were predominantly top-down (fishery) controlled between 1983 and 1993, whereas between 1993 and 2003 the pelagic stocks shifted to a state responding mainly to bottom-up (environment) influences. However, for the demersal fish stocks between 1993 and 2003 top-down (fishery) pressure dominated even though over this period significant reductions in fishing pressure occurred. The present analysis, therefore, provides further evidence in support of the need for precautionary management measures taken in relation to setting fishery quotas. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Sidney J. Holt (1926–2019) was more than a founding father of quantitative fisheries science, and the man who "helped save the great whales." His accomplishments, over a career spanning seven decades, run deeper: he was a champion of reductionism (i.e. able to identify the factors essential for management) and a systemic thinker who inspired scientists to think critically about marine conservation and management. This article draws on first-hand experiences with Sidney over the last 15 years, when he regularly collaborated with scholars of the ICES Working Group on the History of Fish and Fisheries and the Oceans Past Initiative. Four main themes emerged from our reflections on Sidney's life and legacy, which constitute ongoing scientific challenges: (1) the suitability of maximum sustainable yield as a target reference point for fisheries management; (2) the future of marine mammal conservation; (3) successful implementation of ecosystem-based marine management; and (4) the value of historical perspectives for conservation and management. We consider Sidney's work across these themes, in which he readily collaborated, focused on evidence-based solutions, and, where evidence was lacking, he advocated for the "precautionary principle." We posit there is much that we, and future generations of scientists, can learn from his example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global environmental change is increasing hypoxia in aquatic ecosystems. During hypoxic events, bacterial respiration causes an increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) while oxygen (O2) declines. This is rarely accounted for when assessing hypoxia tolerances of aquatic organisms. We investigated the impact of environmentally realistic increases in CO2 on responses to hypoxia in European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax). We conducted a critical oxygen (O2crit) test, a common measure of hypoxia tolerance, using two treatments in which O2 levels were reduced with constant ambient CO2 levels (~530 µatm), or with reciprocal increases in CO2 (rising to ~2,500 µatm). We also assessed blood acid-base chemistry and haemoglobin-O2 binding affinity of sea bass in hypoxic conditions with ambient (~650 μatm) or raised CO2 (~1770 μatm) levels. Sea bass exhibited greater hypoxia tolerance (~20% reduced O2crit), associated with increased haemoglobin-O2 affinity (~32% fall in P50) of red blood cells, when exposed to reciprocal changes in O2 and CO2. This indicates that rising CO2 which accompanies environmental hypoxia facilitates increased O2 uptake by the blood in low O2 conditions, enhancing hypoxia tolerance. We recommend that when impacts of hypoxia on aquatic organisms are assessed, due consideration is given to associated environmental increases in CO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of "blue growth," which aims to promote the growth of ocean economies while holistically managing marine socioecological systems, is emerging within national and international marine policy. The concept is often promoted as being novel; however, we show that historical analogies exist that can provide insights for contemporary planning and implementation of blue growth. Using a case‐study approach based on expert knowledge, we identified 20 historical fisheries or aquaculture examples from 13 countries, spanning the last 40–800 years, that we contend embody blue growth concepts. This is the first time, to our knowledge, that blue growth has been investigated across such broad spatial and temporal scales. The past societies managed to balance exploitation with equitable access, ecological integrity and/or economic growth for varying periods of time. Four main trajectories existed that led to the success or failure of blue growth. Success was linked to equitable rather than open access, innovation and management that was responsive, holistic and based on scientific knowledge and monitoring. The inability to achieve or maintain blue growth resulted from failures to address limits to industry growth and/or anticipate the impacts of adverse extrinsic events and drivers (e.g. changes in international markets, war), the prioritization of short‐term gains over long‐term sustainability, and loss of supporting systems. Fourteen cross‐cutting lessons and 10 recommendations were derived that can improve understanding and implementation of blue growth. Despite the contemporary literature broadly supporting our findings, these recommendations are not adequately addressed by agendas seeking to realize blue growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phytoplankton primary production is at the base of the marine food web; changes in primary production have direct or indirect effects on higher trophic levels, from zooplankton organisms to marine mammals and seabirds. Here, we present a new time-series on gross primary production in the North Sea, from 1988 to 2013, estimated using in situ measurements of chlorophyll and underwater light. This shows that recent decades have seen a significant decline in primary production in the North Sea. Moreover, primary production differs in magnitude between six hydrodynamic regions within the North Sea. Sea surface warming and reduced riverine nutrient inputs are found to be likely contributors to the declining levels of primary production. In turn, significant correlations are found between observed changes in primary production and the dynamics of higher trophic levels including (small) copepods and a standardized index of fish recruitment, averaged over seven stocks of high commercial significance in the North Sea. Given positive (bottom-up) associations between primary production, zooplankton abundance and fish stock recruitment, this study provides strong evidence that if the decline in primary production continues, knock-on effects upon the productivity of fisheries are to be expected unless these fisheries are managed effectively and cautiously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How have North Sea skate and shark assemblages changed since the early 20th century when bottom trawling became widespread, whilst their environment became increasingly impacted by fishing, climate change, habitat degradation and other anthropogenic pressures? This article examines long-term changes in the distribution and occurrence of the elasmobranch assemblage of the southern North Sea, based on extensive historical time series (1902-2013) of fishery-independent survey data. In general, larger species (thornback ray, tope, spurdog) exhibited long-term declines, and the largest (common skate complex) became locally extirpated (as did angelshark). Smaller species increased (spotted and starry ray, lesser-spotted dogfish) as did smooth-hound, likely benefiting from greater resilience to fishing and/or climate change. This indicates a fundamental shift from historical dominance of larger, commercially valuable species to current prevalence of smaller, more productive species often of low commercial value. In recent years, however, some trends have reversed, with the (cold-water associated) starry ray now declining and thornback ray increasing. This shift may be attributed to (i) fishing, including mechanised beam trawling introduced in the 1960s-1970s, and historical target fisheries for elasmobranchs; (ii) climate change, currently favouring warm-water above cold-water species; and (iii) habitat loss, including potential degradation of coastal and outer estuarine nursery habitats. The same anthropogenic pressures, here documented to have impacted North Sea elasmobranchs over the past century, are likewise impacting shelf seas worldwide and may increase in the future; therefore, parallel changes in elasmo-branch communities in other regions are to be expected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In the North Sea, turbot (Scophthalmus maximus) and brill (Scophthalmus rhombus) represent highly valuable species in commercial fisheries. Still, available data for both species are limited, making stock assessment difficult. Long-term fisheries data have the potential to improve the understanding of stock dynamics such as long-term distribution changes or development in species' abundances. Historical British otter trawler lpue (landings-per-unit-effort) data from 1923 to 2009, and at the spatial scale of ICES rectangles, revealed that the distribution patterns of turbot and brill were different for most of the 20th century and only became similar in the recent decade. Further, between the 1920s and 1960s, turbot was commonly caught in the northern North Sea and in particular on Turbot Bank, at that time a turbot hotspot off the east coast of Scotland. Within a short time period turbot nearly disappeared from this region. Brill, in contrast, revealed a stable distribution in the southern and central North Sea with a slow expansion into the central North Sea. We used survey cpue (catch-per-unit-effort) from the International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS; 1970–2009) and the Beam Trawl Survey (BTS; 1985–2009), as well as British otter trawler lpue, as proxies for the abundance of adult turbot and brill. Commercial lpue suggested for brill and turbot a long-term decrease in abundance. IBTS cpue suggested an increase in abundance for turbot, but this was not confirmed by the BTS. For brill, both surveys did not show a clear trend. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The responses of fish populations to anthropogenic and environmental drivers are of growing interest. In commercial fisheries attention is increasingly directed to species historically being of secondary importance and potentially being influenced by these drivers. We present long-term commercial fisheries data of North Sea whiting (Merlangius merlangus), comprising international catches (1903–2010), quotas (1980–2010), and British otter trawler data (landings-per-unit-effort (lpue) for 1923–2009 at the spatial scale of ICES rectangles). Based on lpue data, we tested the possible effects of climate change and fishing pressure on whiting distribution. Results showed no distinct latitudinal and deepening shifts, but a ∼1° westward shift between the late-1940s and 1960s. Relations to climate change and fishing pressure were not strong. The lack of clear latitudinal and deepening shifts contrasts with recent studies on other North Sea species reporting such shifts related to temperature change. The North Sea is at the centre of the distribution range of whiting, and the temperature changes might still fall well within the physiological tolerance limits of this species, hence not affecting the distribution. The drivers for the longitudinal shift remain unclear. However, whiting is also commonly discarded by fisheries; if levels of discarding differ spatially, our results may not represent the true picture of whiting distribution and need to be interpreted with caution. This highlights the challenge in detection and attribution of climate change effects on exploited fish stocks with commercial data only. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Heino, M., Baulier, L., Boukal, D. S., Ernande, B., Johnston, F. D., Mollet, F. M., Pardoe, H., Therkildsen, N. O., Uusi-Heikkilä, S., Vainikka, A., Arlinghaus, R., Dankel, D. J., Dunlop, E. S., Eikeset, A. M., Enberg, K., Engelhard G. H., Jørgensen, C., Laugen, A. T., Matsumura, S., Nusslé, S., Urbach, D., Whitlock, R., Rijnsdorp, A. D., and Dieckmann, U. 2013. Can fisheries-induced evolution shift reference points for fisheries management? – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 707–721.Biological reference points are important tools for fisheries management. Reference points are not static, but may change when a population's environment or the population itself changes. Fisheries-induced evolution is one mechanism that can alter population characteristics, leading to “shifting” reference points by modifying the underlying biological processes or by changing the perception of a fishery system. The former causes changes in “true” reference points, whereas the latter is caused by changes in the yardsticks used to quantify a system's status. Unaccounted shifts of either kind imply that reference points gradually lose their intended meaning. This can lead to increased precaution, which is safe, but potentially costly. Shifts can also occur in more perilous directions, such that actual risks are greater than anticipated. Our qualitative analysis suggests that all commonly used reference points are susceptible to shifting through fisheries-induced evolution, including the limit and “precautionary” reference points for spawning-stock biomass, Blim and Bpa, and the target reference point for fishing mortality, F0.1. Our findings call for increased awareness of fisheries-induced changes and highlight the value of always basing reference points on adequately updated information, to capture all changes in the biological processes that drive fish population dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

To anticipate the response of fish populations to climate change, we developed a framework that integrates requirements in all life stages to assess impacts across the entire life cycle. The framework was applied on plaice ( Pleuronectes platessa) and Atlantic herring ( Clupea harengus) in the North Sea, Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) in the Norwegian/ Barents Seas and European anchovy ( Engraulis encrasicolus) in the Bay of Biscay. In each case study, we reviewed habitats required by each life stage, habitat availability, and connectivity between habitats. We then explored how these could be altered by climate change. We documented environmental processes impacting habitat availability and connectivity, providing an integrated view at the population level and in a spatial context of potential climate impacts. A key result was that climate-driven changes in larval dispersion seem to be the major unknown. Our summary suggested that species with specific habitat requirements for spawning (herring) or nursery grounds (plaice) display bottlenecks in their life cycle. Among the species examined, anchovy could cope best with environmental variability. Plaice was considered to be least resilient to climate-driven changes due to its strict connectivity between spawning and nursery grounds. For plaice in the North Sea, habitat availability was expected to reduce with climate change. For North Sea herring, Norwegian cod and Biscay anchovy, climate-driven changes were expected to have contrasting impacts depending on the life stage. Our review highlights the need to integrate physiological and behavioural processes across the life cycle to project the response of specific populations to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]