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In many applications of small area estimation, dichotomous or categorical outcomes are the targets of statistical inference. For example, in the analysis of labour markets, proportions of working-age people in the various labour market statuses are of interest. In this paper, in line with the recent literature, we consider a classification with more than three statuses and estimate related population parameters for 611 local labour market areas using data from the 2012 Italian Labour Force Survey, administrative registers and the 2011 Census. As for the methodology, we propose multinomial expectile regression models. These models provide a means to utilise M-quantile type approaches, which have been shown to be a useful alternative to mixed model approaches when parametric assumptions on the distribution of random effects cannot be met. Via a large-scale simulation study, we show how this novel approach is much faster and provides reliable results when compared to multinomial mixed model approaches, and works for any number of categories rather than just a small number of categories as is more commonly the case with existing methods. Furthermore, the proposed approach potentially provides a framework for developing other methods for prediction with multi-category outcomes.

Summary We consider the estimation of the relative median poverty gap (RMPG) at the level of Italian provinces by using data from the European Union Survey on Income and Living Conditions. The overall sample size does not allow reliable estimation of income-distribution-related parameters at the provincial level; therefore, small area estimation techniques must be used. The specific challenge in estimating the RMPG is that, as it summarizes the income distribution of the poor, samples for estimating it for small subpopulations are even smaller than those available in other parameters. We propose a Bayesian strategy where various parameters summarizing the distribution of income at the provincial level are modelled by means of a multivariate small area model. To estimate the RMPG, we relate these parameters to a distribution describing income, namely the generalized beta distribution of the second kind. Posterior draws from the multivariate model are then used to generate draws for the distribution's area-specific parameters and then of the RMPG defined as their functional.

Background and aims: Familial Hypercholesterolaemia (FH) is characterised by a genetic alteration in the transport and metabolism of cholesterol that leads to elevated levels of total cholesterol (CT) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and early onset of atherosclerosis. According to the current guidelines, diet and promotion of healthy habits are first-line treatments. Little is known about the effectiveness of cholesterol-lowering diet and healthy lifestyle habits on plasma cholesterol and lipid profile in children and adolescents with FH. The aim of the study is to investigate the effect of the nutritional counseling on plasma lipid profile in FH children at the first step of treatment. Methods: 115 FH children (2–17 years) were included in the study; dietary habits were evaluated through a Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ) and blood samples for lipid profile were collected at the enrollment (T0) and six months later (T1). Results: the lipid profile at T0 and T1, expressed as mean ± standard deviation in mg/dL, was, respectively: total cholesterol 285.9 ± 51.1 and 276.6 ± 46.8 (paired test difference p value < 0.01), LDL-cholesterol 214.9 ± 47.7 and 206.4 ± 46.6 (p value < 0.01), HDL-cholesterol 52.9 ± 13 and 54.4 ± 11.5 (p value 0.07), triglycerides 87 ± 46.7 and 82.2 ± 38.4 (p value 0.4), non-HDL cholesterol 233 ± 51.4 and 222.2 ± 47.4 (p < 0.01). In the dietary habits (weekly portions) we observed an improvement (p ≤ 001) for fruit and vegetables, fish, pulses, whole foods, and a reduction (p < 0.01) for meat, sausages, cheese, junk foods consumption. Conclusions: In FH children we have highlighted an improvement of the plasma lipid profile and in healthy dietary habits after nutritional counseling.

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollutant concentrations is known to cause chronic lung inflammation, a condition that may promote increased severity of COVID-19 syndrome caused by the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). In this paper, we empirically investigate the ecologic association between long-term concentrations of area-level fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and excess deaths in the first quarter of 2020 in municipalities of Northern Italy. The study accounts for potentially spatial confounding factors related to urbanization that may have influenced the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 and related COVID-19 mortality. Our epidemiological analysis uses geographical information (e.g., municipalities) and negative binomial regression to assess whether both ambient PM2.5 concentration and excess mortality have a similar spatial distribution. Our analysis suggests a positive association of ambient PM2.5 concentration on excess mortality in Northern Italy related to the COVID-19 epidemic. Our estimates suggest that a one-unit increase in PM2.5 concentration (µg/m3) is associated with a 9% (95% confidence interval: 6–12%) increase in COVID-19 related mortality.

The trend in crop yields and yield variability affects food security and impact agricultural and food policies. Recent studies in this area have either focused only on one country or performed global analysis on a handful of crops. We provide the first worldwide analysis of trend and variability for 8088 country-crop yield series taken from the FAO database, employing a robust estimator to cope with the adverse statistical effects of outliers. More than half of the series display a slowdown in yield growth due to a closing of the gap between realised and attainable yields as well as to agricultural policies promoting more sustainable agricultural practices. Around one fourth of the series show also an increase in yield variability as a consequence of climate change and changes in farm management practices. Yield variability is highest in Eastern Europe, Central Asia and Middle East and North Africa, where food security may be threatened.

Early chimerism analysis is important to assess engraftment in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantations.We retrospectively investigated the impact of T-cell chimerism at day 30 in bone marrow on acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD), relapse, and overall survival in 142 adult allo-transplanted patients.The majority of patients (89%) received myeloablative conditioning and 90% have undergone T-cell replete donor graft. At day 30, 103 patients showed T-complete chimerism with prevalence in haploidentical transplants, whereas 39 cases had CD3+ mixed chimerism, including 30 patients transplanted with HLA identical donors, and 21 with T-cell donors90%. T-cell chimerism at day 30 was weakly inversely related to aGVHD grades II-IV (p = .078) with no cases of grades III-IV aGVHD in patients with CD3+95%. Mixed T-cell chimerism did not impact on relapse (p = .448) and five of the seven patients who relapsed had T-cell chimerism ≤90%. Older age and active disease at transplant had a statistically significant negative effect on overall survival (p = .01 and p = .0001, respectively), whereas mixed CD3+ chimerism did not.T lymphocyte chimerism analysis at day +30 in bone marrow could identify allo-transplanted patients at major risk of aGVHD grades III-IV (CD3+ donors95%) mainly post-myeloablative conditioning regimen.

Estimating poverty and inequality parameters for small sub-populations with adequate precision is often beyond the reach of ordinary survey-weighted methods because of small sample sizes. In small area estimation, survey data and auxiliary information are combined, in most cases using a model. In this paper, motivated by the analysis of EU-SILC data for Italy, we target the estimation of a selection of poverty and inequality indicators, that is mean, headcount ratio and quintile share ratio, adopting a Bayesian approach. We consider unit-level models specified on the log transformation of a skewed variable (equivalized income). We show how a finite mixture of log-normals provides a substantial improvement in the quality of fit with respect to a single log-normal model. Unfortunately, working with these distributions leads, for some estimands, to the non-existence of posterior moments whenever priors for the variance components are not carefully chosen, as our theoretical results show. To allow the use of moments in posterior summaries, we recommend generalized inverse Gaussian distributions as priors for variance components, guiding the choice of hyperparameters.

Little is known about the role of Lp(a) in the assessment of cardiovascular risk in the paediatric population. Trying to clarify the clinical relevance of Lp(a) in risk stratification, the aim of the study is to evaluate the association between Lp(a) plasma levels in children with familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) and positive family history for premature cardiovascular disease (pCVD) in first- and second-degree relatives.653 Caucasian children and adolescents (334 females and 319 males), aged 2-17 years, with diagnosis of FH from a paediatric cohort included in the LIPIGEN Network, were selected. We compared family history of pCVD, lipid and genetic profile in two groups based on Lp(a) levels below or above 30 mg/dL. To determine the independent predictors of pCVD, a multivariate logistic regression was used, with all clinical characteristics and blood measurements as predictors.Subjects with Lp(a) 30 mg/dl more frequently reported positive family history of pCVD compared to subjects with Lp(a)≤30 mg/dl (69.90% vs 36.66%, p 0.0001), while did not show differences in terms of median [interquartile range] LDL-cholesterol level (153.00 [88.00 vs 164.50 [90.25] mg/dL, p = 0.3105). In the regression analysis, Lp(a) 30 mg/dl was an independent predictor of family history of pCVD. Comparing subjects with or without family history of pCVD, we reported significant differences for Lp(a) 30 mg/dl (46.25% vs 17.65%, p 0.0001), FH genetic mutation (50.48% vs 40.75%, p = 0,0157), as well as for LDL-cholesterol (p = 0.0013) and total cholesterol (p = 0.0101).Children/adolescents with FH and Lp(a) 30 mg/dl where more likely to have a positive family history of pCVD. Lp(a) screening in children and adolescents with FH may enhance risk assessment and help identify those subjects, children and relatives, at increased pCVD risk.

Introduction: The early identification of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection is still a real challenge for emergency departments (ED). First, we aimed to develop a score, based on the use of the lung ultrasonography (LUS), in addition to the pre-triage interview, to correctly address patients; second, we aimed to prove the usefulness of a three-path organization (COVID-19, not-COVID-19 and intermediate) compared to a two-path organization (COVID-19, non-COVID-19). Methods: We retrospectively analysed 292 patients admitted to our ED from 10 April to 15 April 2020, with a definite diagnosis of positivity (93 COVID-19 patients) or negativity (179 not-COVID-19 patients) for SARS-COV-2 infection. Using a logistic regression, we found a set of predictors for infection selected from the pre-triage interview items and the LUS findings, which contribute with a different weight to the final score. Then, we compared the organization of two different pathways. Results: The most informative factors for classifying the patient are known nasopharyngeal swab positivity, close contact with a COVID-19 patient, fever associated with respiratory symptoms, respiratory failure, anosmia or dysgeusia, and the ultrasound criteria of diffuse alveolar interstitial syndrome, absence of B-lines and presence of pleural effusion. Their sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and AUC-ROC are, respectively, 0.83, 0.81, 0.82 and 0.81. The most significant difference between the two pathways is the percentage of not-COVID-19 patients assigned to the COVID-19 area, that is, 10.6% (19/179) in the three-path organization, and 18.9% (34/179) in the two-path organization (p = 0.037). Conclusions: Our study suggests the possibility to use a score based on the pre-triage interview and the LUS findings to correctly manage the patients admitted to the ED, and the importance of an intermediate area to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the ED and, as a consequence, in the hospital.

Summary In business surveys, estimates of means and totals for subnational regions, industries and business classes can be too imprecise because of the small sample sizes that are available for subpopulations. We propose a small area technique for the estimation of totals for skewed target variables, which are typical of business data. We adopt a Bayesian approach to inference. We specify a prior distribution for the random effects based on the idea of local shrinkage, which is suitable when auxiliary variables with strong predictive power are available: another feature that is often displayed by business survey data. This flexible modelling of random effects leads to predictions in agreement with those based on global shrinkage for most of the areas, but enables us to obtain less shrunken and thereby less biased estimates for areas characterized by large model residuals. We discuss an application based on data from the Italian survey on small and medium enterprises. By means of a simulation exercise, we explore the frequentist properties of the estimators proposed. They are good, and differently from methods based on global shrinkage remain so also for areas characterized by large model residuals.

Although the European Union's (EU) Common Agricultural Policy was intended as sectoral, its recent reforms lead to a stronger territorial vocation, allowing for possible overlaps with the objectives of the Cohesion Policy, the main regional policy of the EU. Through a threshold regression approach, we explore if the possible interactions between these policies influence the agricultural productive performance in more and less developed regions. Results show that in regions with agricultural Gross Value Added per worker lower than 25.53 thousand Euros, both policies exhibit a negative effect, mitigated if they are implemented together. In more productive regions, the effects are the opposite. Aunque la Politica Agricola Comun de la Union Europea (UE) fue concebida como sectorial, sus reformas recientes la dirigen a una vocacion territorial mas fuerte, lo que permite posibles solapamientos con los objetivos de la Politica de Cohesion, que es la principal politica regional de la UE. Mediante un enfoque de regresion de umbral, el articulo explora si las posibles interacciones entre estas politicas influyen en el rendimiento productivo agricola en regiones con un mayor y menor desarrollo. Los resultados muestran que en las regiones con un Valor Anadido Bruto agricola por trabajador inferior a 25.530 euros, ambas politicas muestran un efecto negativo, que se ve mitigado si se aplican conjuntamente. En las regiones mas productivas, los efectos son los opuestos. 欧州連合 (EU)の共通農業政策 (Common Agricultural Policy)はセクター別のものとして意図されていたが、最近なされた改定によりより多くの地域的雇用がもたらされ、EUの主要な地域政策である結束政策の目的と重複する可能性が生じた。本稿では、閾値回帰アプローチにより、これらの政策間の相互作用が、より開発の進んだ地域と進んでいない地域の農業生産性に影響を与えるかどうかを探索する。結果から、労働者一人当たりの農業の粗付加価値が2,553万ユーロ以下の地域では、いずれの政策もマイナスの効果をもたらし、政策が一緒に実施されればマイナスの効果が緩和されることが示された。生産性の高い地域では、その効果は逆である。

The analysis of variance, and mixed models in general, are popular tools for analyzing experimental data in psychology. Bayesian inference for these models is gaining popularity as it allows to easily handle complex experimental designs and data dependence structures. When working on the log of the response variable, the use of standard priors for the variance parameters can create inferential problems and namely the non-existence of posterior moments of parameters and predictive distributions in the original scale of the data. The use of the generalized inverse Gaussian distributions with a careful choice of the hyper-parameters is proposed as a general purpose option for priors on variance parameters. Theoretical and simulations results motivate the proposal. A software package that implements the analysis is also discussed. As the log-transformation of the response variable is often applied when modelling response times, an empirical data analysis in this field is reported. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11336-021-09769-y.

Background Total nucleated cell (TNC) count is the most important biological feature to consider in assessing the quality of umbilical cord blood (UCB) for haematopoietic stem cell (HSC) transplantation. Certain obstetric factors have been reported to increase TNC count in UCB units collected for transplantation. The aim of our study was to analyze how various maternal, neonatal and obstetric factors affected TNC count in the UCBs we collected for our cord blood bank in southern Italy. Material and methods We performed a retrospective analysis of 634 medical records of UCBs collected by Calabria Cord Blood Bank (CCBB), between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2016. We analyzed various maternal, neonatal and obstetric variables factors and related this factor with the characteristic of TNC. Results We found that the average number of TNCs was significantly greater in vaginal delivery than in caesarean delivery. We also found that TNCs were higher in the 40th week of pregnancy and when Apgar 1' scores were ≤ 9. The effect of a newborn's gender was less evident on TNC count. Conclusions Knowledge of factors predictive of a higher TNC count would help cord blood banks more efficiently identify donors likely to yield high-quality UCBs for transplantation.

Objective To evaluate the role of low molecular weight heparin in COVID-19 treatment.Design Retrospective cohort studySetting Patients with COVID-19 pneumonia consecutively admitted to Castel San Giovanni COVID- Hospital from February 29, to April 7, 2020.Main outcome measure Hospital mortality and safety in patients treated with low molecular weight hep- arin.Results Of the 257 patients enrolled, 49 (19.1%) died during the hospitalization. Hospital mortality was significantly lower in patients treated with therapeutic dose of low molecular weight heparin (T-LMWH) (17/126, 13.5%), compared with patients treated with prophylactic dose (P-LMWH) (32/131, 24.4%; χ²=4.98, p = 0.02). Crude and adjusted odds ratios of mortality for patients treated with T-LMWH were OR=0.483, 95% CI 0.252-0.923 and OR=0.374, 95% CI 0.177-0.792. In a stratified analysis by ventila- tion type, the only subgroup of patients who benefited from therapeutic doses of heparin were those re- ceiving non-invasive mechanical ventilation (OR=0.099, 95% CI 0.028-0.354, pConclusion Treatment with therapeutic doses of T-LMWH is safe and seems to reduce mortality in COVID-19 patients with pneumonia, especially among those who need non-invasive mechanical ventila- tion. We look forward to prospective studies to confirm this observation and evaluate the appropriate dose of LMWH in the treatment of COVID-19 patients.

In recent years, M-quantile regression has been applied to small area estimation to obtain reliable and outlier robust estimators without recourse to strong parametric assumptions. In this paper, after a review of M-quantile regression and its application to small area estimation, we cover several topics related to model specification and selection for M-quantile regression that received little attention so far. Specifically, a pseudo-R2 goodness-of-fit measure is proposed, along with likelihood ratio and Wald type tests for model specification. A test to assess the presence of actual area heterogeneity in the data is also proposed. Finally, we introduce a new estimator of the scale of the regression residuals, motivated by a representation of the M-quantile regression estimation as a regression model with Generalised Asymmetric Least Informative distributed error terms. The Generalised Asymmetric Least Informative distribution, introduced in this paper, generalises the asymmetric Laplace distribution often associated to quantile regression. As the testing procedures discussed in the paper are motivated asymptotically, their finite sample properties are empirically assessed in Monte Carlo simulations. Although the proposed methods apply generally to Mquantile regression, in this paper, their use ar illustrated by means of an application to Small Area Estimation using a well known real dataset.

International audience; The aim was the validation of a platform for internal dosimetry, named MCID, based on patient-specific images and direct Monte Carlo (MC) simulations, for radioembolization of liver tumors with 90Y-labeled microspheres. CT of real patients were used to create voxelized phantoms with different density and activity maps. SPECT acquisitions were simulated by the SIMIND MC code. Input macros for the GATE/Geant4 code were generated by MCID, loading coregistered morphological and functional images and performing image segmentation. The dosimetric results obtained from the direct MC simulations and from conventional MIRD approach at both organ and voxel level, in condition of homogeneous tissues, were compared, obtaining differences of about 0.3% and within 3%, respectively, whereas differences increased (up to 14%) introducing tissue heterogeneities in phantoms. Mean absorbed dose for spherical regions of different sizes (10 mm ≤ r ≤ 30 mm) from MC code and from OLINDA/EXM were also compared obtaining differences varying in the range 7–69%, which decreased to 2–9% after correcting for partial volume effects (PVEs) from imaging, confirming that differences were mostly due to PVEs, even though a still high difference for the smallest sphere suggested possible source description mismatching. This study validated the MCID platform, which allows the fast implementation of a patient-specific GATE simulation, avoiding complex and time-consuming manual coding. It also points out the relevance of personalized dosimetry, accounting for inhomogeneities, in order to avoid absorbed dose misestimations.

The analysis of poverty persistence received considerable attention in recent years. In this paper we explore the role of the adopted poverty measure in the analysis of its persistence. Specifically, we consider three measures: the risk of poverty, the severe material deprivation and subjective poverty, motivated by the understanding of poverty as a complex phenomenon and for which no single measure can effectively capture its several dimensions. The empirical analysis is based on the 2013-2016 longitudinal sample of the EU-SILC survey. We focus on Italian households with dependent children. We apply a correlated random effects probit models with endogenous initial conditions to assess genuine state dependence after controlling for structural household characteristics and variables related to participation in the labour market. A strong state dependence emerges, regardless of the considered poverty measure thus providing evidence of poverty and social exclusion persistence. We also find evidence of relevance of initial conditions for all measures in focus. Nonetheless, structural household characteristics and household level economic variables play roles that are often different in the three parallel models; these differences are consistent with the aims and nature of the alternative measures.

Data linkage can be used to combine values of the variable of interest from a national survey with values of auxiliary variables obtained from another source, such as a population register, for use in small area estimation. However, linkage errors can induce bias when fitting regression models; moreover, they can create non-representative outliers in the linked data in addition to the presence of potential representative outliers. In this paper, we adopt a secondary analyst’s point of view, assuming that limited information is available on the linkage process, and develop small area estimators based on linear mixed models and M-quantile models to accommodate linked data containing a mix of both types of outliers. We illustrate the properties of these small area estimators, as well as estimators of their mean squared error, by means of model-based and design-based simulation experiments. We further illustrate the proposed methodology by applying it to linked data from the European Survey on Income and Living Conditions and the Italian integrated archive of economic and demographic micro data in order to obtain estimates of the average equivalised income for labour market areas in central Italy.

This issue is devoted to survey sampling methods. It carries on a tradition of Mathematical Population Studies, after the issues guest-edited by Malay Ghosh and Tomasz Żadlo (2014) and Vera Toepoe...

to investigate the effect of age at CI activation and to explore the role of other variables such as linguistic skills, stimulation modality and gender on reading comprehension.Prospective observational nonrandomized study.89 children with profound congenital sensorineural hearing loss were included in the study. The mean age at CI activation was 21 months (DS ± 11; range 7-50). The Italian reading standardized test, "Prove di lettura MT", was used to assess reading comprehension. The individual raw data MT score were converted into z scores (expected values: means = 0 and SD = 1). The positive values indicated better performance and negative values indicated worse performance.Early implanted children achieved significantly better reading comprehension skills, 55 out of 89 children are within 1 SD from the overall mean. 34 children (38.2%) attainted MT z-scores less than 1 SD below the mean. Children with unilateral CI performed somewhat worse if compared to bilateral CI and bimodal stimulation mode, although the differences were weakly significant from a statistical point of view. A strong and positive correlation (rho .69, p .001) was found with the lexical and morphosyntactic comprehension (rho .70, p .001). Not significantly different values were observed for gender and parental education level.Early cochlear implantation promoted better development of reading skills in children with cochlear implantation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCES: outcomes research.

A standard assumption when modelling linked sample data is that the stochastic properties of the linking process and process underpinning the population values of the response variable are independ...

This paper employs data from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (2004) to explore how women’s empowerment is related to partner’s attitudes, participation in microcredit programmes and a set of other socio-economic factors. We use a structural equation model with categorical observed variables. We get that participation in microcredit programmes has a positive impact on both the empowerment’s dimensions considered, while partner’s attitudes effect is weaker, proving that gender community norms are likely to be rooted in women’s minds regardless of the partners’ perceptions of women’s status.

Objectives/Hypothesis Social conversational skills are a salient aspect of early pragmatic development in young children. These skills include two different abilities, assertiveness and responsiveness. This study investigated the development of these abilities in early implanted children and their relationships with lexical development and some language-sensitive variables. Study Design Prospective, observational, nonrandomized study. Methods Participants included 28 children with congenital profound sensorineural hearing loss. The mean age at device activation was 13.3 months (standard deviation [SD] ±4.2). The Social-Conversational Skills Rating Scale was used to evaluate assertiveness and responsiveness. The MacArthur-Bates Communicative Development Inventory (Words and Sentences form) was used to analyze the lexical development. The device experience was 12 months for each child, and the mean age at testing was 25.9 months (SD ±4.6). Results Assertiveness and responsiveness scores were within the normal range of normal-hearing age-matched peers. Age at cochlear implant activation exerted a significant impact, with the highest scores associated to the youngest patients. The residual correlations between assertiveness and responsiveness with the lexical development were positive and strongly significant (r = 0.69 and 0.73, respectively). Preoperative hearing threshold demonstrated an associated significant coefficient on the assertiveness score. Age at diagnosis and maternal education level were not correlated with the social conversational skills. Conclusions Early-implanted children developed social conversational skills that are similar to normal-hearing peers matched for age 1 year after device activation. Social conversational skills and lexical development were strongly correlated, but the present study design cannot specify the direction of this relationship. Children with better preoperative residual hearing exhibited better assertive ability. Level of Evidence 4 Laryngoscope, 2015

Objectives/Hypothesis To investigate the effect of age at cochlear implant activation on oral narrative ability in children implanted before 2.5 years of age and to examine the role of other variables (gender, parental education level, stimulation modality) in narrative skills. Study design retrospective nonrandomized group study Methods Thirty children (21 females; 9 males) with congenital, bilateral severe-to-profound sensorineural hearing loss were included in this study. The mean age at cochlear implant activation was 14.7 months (standard deviation [SD] ± 5.3). The Renfrew Bus Story was used to analyze oral narrative skills at mean chronological age of 63 months (SD ± 0.2). Results The total information on the Renfrew Bus Story raw score ranged from 8 to 40, with a mean of 22.7 (SD ± 8.6). Children produced on average 7.5 words in a sentence (SD ± 1.5). The mean score for complexity was 2.2 (SD ± 1.5). Regression analysis revealed a highly significant and negative linear effect of age at cochlear implant activation on all outcomes. The mother's education level had a positive strong effect on sentence length but a weak effect on total information and complexity. The paternal education score had a weak influence on the sentence length. Gender, age at diagnosis, and stimulation modality were not correlated with the narrative outcomes. Conclusions Early implanted children can develop narrative skills close to normal hearing children. The sociocultural context, expressed by maternal and paternal educational level, are positively related to the development of oral narrative. Levels of Evidence 4. Laryngoscope, 125:1685–1690, 2015

Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to shed light on transitions from the state of unemployment to that of employment and of inactivity in Italy and Spain.Design/methodology/approach– First, the paper investigates the determinants of unemployment outflows in these two Mediterranean labour markets. Then, the paper examines discrepancies and similarities between specific outflow determinants, especially the interactions between gender and marital status, by comparing results obtained across countries.Findings– The findings of the paper suggest that gender and marital status influence the probability of unemployment outflows in both countries, although not in the same way, especially with reference to marital status. Discrepancies also emerge in relation to the role of geographical area of residence.Originality/value– International comparisons of unemployment outflows are rather new in the literature, and as far as we know none have been performed using European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions data. Further, although studies quite often examine the issue of gender-related labour mobility using the European Community Household Panel survey that took place in the 1990s (Arulampalamet al., 2007; Garcia Pérez and Rebollo Sanz, 2005; Theodossiou and Zangelidis, 2009), one of the main contributions of this paper is that it provides a systematic examination of the issue, considering the influence of gender and marital status differences on patterns of unemployment outflows to employment and inactivity.

Log-normal linear regression models are popular in many fields of research. Bayesian estimation of the conditional mean of the dependent variable is problematic as many choices of the prior for the variance (on the log-scale) lead to posterior distributions with no finite moments. We propose a generalized inverse Gaussian prior for this variance and derive the conditions on the prior parameters that yield posterior distributions of the conditional mean of the dependent variable with finite moments up to a pre-specified order. The conditions depend on one of the three parameters of the suggested prior; the other two have an influence on inferences for small and medium sample sizes. A second goal of this paper is to discuss how to choose these parameters according to different criteria including the optimization of frequentist properties of posterior means.

Objectives Parental questionnaires are important tools in the evaluation of auditory and language skills of very young children affected by sensorineural hearing loss. One of these instruments is the Production on Infant Scale Evaluation (PRISE). The purposes of this study were to adapt and validate the PRISE on Italian children with normal hearing; and to obtain normative data. Methods A back translation technique was used to adapt the Italian version of PRISE. The PRISE was submitted to parents of 234 normal children aged between 3 and 18 months of life. All of them passed local universal newborn hearing screenings and they presented no audiological risk factors. Results The PRISE internal reliability (Cronbach's alpha) was 0.87. Split-half reliability indexes were λ 4 = 0.89 and λ 6 = 0.89. Corrected item-total correlation coefficients were significant for all items. The correlation of PRISE with a modified Infant Toddler Meaningful Auditory Integration Scale (IT-MAIS), collected for convergent validity measurement purposes, was good ( r = 0.743). A positive correlation of PRISE scores with age was found, reflecting on the age-dependence of pre-verbal skills. Conclusion These findings demonstrate high reliability and convergent validity of the Italian PRISE version. This questionnaire constitutes a robust tool for assessing early language development in infants and toddlers with normal hearing. It seems particularly sensitive to the normal language development in the first years of life, which can be very useful for early rehabilitation of hearing loss.

Small area estimation with M-quantile models was proposed by Chambers and Tzavidis (2006). The key target of this approach to small area estimation is to obtain reliable and outlier robust estimates avoiding at the same time the need for strong parametric assumptions. This approach, however, does not allow for the use of unit level survey weights, making questionable the design consistency of the estimators unless the sampling design is self-weighting within small areas. In this paper, we adopt a model-assisted approach and construct design consistent small area estimators that are based on the M-quantile small area model. Analytic and bootstrap estimators of the design-based variance are discussed. The proposed estimators are empirically evaluated in the presence of complex sampling designs.

type="main" xml:lang="es"> A menudo son necesarias medidas de bienestar economico para areas geograficas pequenas, ya que los indicadores economicos pueden distribuirse de manera desigual entre subconjuntos de regiones relativamente pequenas. Se considera una estimacion de areas pequenas de ingresos equivalentes promedio. A menudo, los datos de ingresos familiares disponibles solo se logran encontrar para una muestra de hogares por lo general demasiado pequena como para ofrecer estimaciones confiables para regiones pequenas. Se considera una tecnica de estimacion de area pequena que es robusta frente a valores atipicos, produce resultados consistentes con estimaciones ponderadas del diseno obtenidas para areas mas grandes y capaz de generar mapas sin apenas contraccion. La metodologia propuesta se aplica a los Sistemas Laborales Locales en la Toscana (Italia).

The Gini coefficient is a popular concentration measure often used in the analysis of economic inequality. Estimates of this index for small regions may be useful to properly represent inequalities within local communities. However, the small area estimation for the Gini coefficient has not been thoroughly investigated. A method based on area level models, thereby avoiding the assumption of the availability of Census data at the micro level, is proposed. A modified design based estimator for the coefficient with reduced small sample bias is suggested as input for the small area model, while a hierarchical Beta mixed regression model is introduced to combine survey data and auxiliary information. The methodology is illustrated by means of an example based on Italian data from the European Union Survey on Income and Living Conditions.

Social conversational skills are a salient aspect of early pragmatic development in young children. These skills include two different abilities, assertiveness and responsiveness. This study investigated the development of these abilities in early implanted children and their relationships with lexical development and some language-sensitive variables.Prospective, observational, nonrandomized study.Participants included 28 children with congenital profound sensorineural hearing loss. The mean age at device activation was 13.3 months (standard deviation [SD] ±4.2). The Social-Conversational Skills Rating Scale was used to evaluate assertiveness and responsiveness. The MacArthur-Bates Communicative Development Inventory (Words and Sentences form) was used to analyze the lexical development. The device experience was 12 months for each child, and the mean age at testing was 25.9 months (SD ±4.6).Assertiveness and responsiveness scores were within the normal range of normal-hearing age-matched peers. Age at cochlear implant activation exerted a significant impact, with the highest scores associated to the youngest patients. The residual correlations between assertiveness and responsiveness with the lexical development were positive and strongly significant (r = 0.69 and 0.73, respectively). Preoperative hearing threshold demonstrated an associated significant coefficient on the assertiveness score. Age at diagnosis and maternal education level were not correlated with the social conversational skills.Early-implanted children developed social conversational skills that are similar to normal-hearing peers matched for age 1 year after device activation. Social conversational skills and lexical development were strongly correlated, but the present study design cannot specify the direction of this relationship. Children with better preoperative residual hearing exhibited better assertive ability.4 Laryngoscope, 126:2098-2105, 2016.

Lactobacillus helveticus is a homofermentative thermophilic lactic acid bacterium used extensively for manufacturing Swiss type and aged Italian cheese. In this study, the phenotypic and genotypic diversity of strains isolated from different natural dairy starter cultures used for Grana Padano, Parmigiano Reggiano, and Provolone cheeses was investigated by a classification tree technique. A data set was used that consists of 119 L. helveticus strains, each of which was studied for its physiological characters, as well as surface protein profiles and hybridization with a species-specific DNA probe. The methodology employed in this work allowed the strains to be grouped into terminal nodes without difficult and subjective interpretation. In particular, good discrimination was obtained between L. helveticus strains isolated, respectively, from Grana Padano and from Provolone natural whey starter cultures. The method used in this work allowed identification of the main characteristics that permit discrimination of biotypes. In order to understand what kind of genes could code for phenotypes of technological relevance, evidence that specific DNA sequences are present only in particular biotypes may be of great interest.