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The forecasting of electricity load is considered as an essential instrument, especially in countries with a restructured electricity market. The mid-term prediction is performed for the period within 1 month to 1 or 2 years and it is important for mid-term planning, including planning of repairs and economic exploitation of power systems, which are related to the reliability of the system directly. The forecast horizon in this paper is monthly and on a daily basis (peak load). The combined method of the neural network and the particle optimization algorithm were used to predict the load, and then the maximum amount of environmental pollution caused by the production of electricity required to supply the predicted load was calculated. The applied method was tested on the data of a North American electric company for four months (four seasons) and in comparison to the other methods presented in previous studies, it had an acceptable accuracy.

Het aantal ‘oldtimers’ – personenauto’s van 25 jaar en ouder – en het gebruik van deze relatief vervuilende auto’s nemen toe. Vooral de recent geïmporteerde oldtimers rijden relatief veel kilometers, wat erop duidt dat ze steeds vaker niet alleen voor recreatief, maar ook voor dagelijks vervoer worden gebruikt. In 2011 bedroeg de uitstoot van oldtimers bijna 3 kiloton stikstofoxiden (NOx) en 0,2 kiloton fijn stof (PM10). Dat is respectievelijk 10 en 5 procent van de totale emissies van personenauto’s in datzelfde jaar, terwijl het aantal kilometers dat oldtimers aflegden slechts ongeveer 1,5 procent uitmaakte van het totale aantal kilometers gereden door personenauto’s. Van de totale uitstoot van stikstofoxiden en fijn stof van de sector verkeer en vervoer zijn oldtimers verantwoordelijk voor respectievelijk circa 2 en 6 procent. In 2015 is de uitstoot van oldtimers weliswaar nog steeds 3 kiloton stikstofoxiden en 0,2 kiloton fijn stof, maar is het aandeel van de oldtimers groter: op het totaal van de uitstoot door personenauto’s zijn de oldtimeremissies dan 15 procent stikstofoxiden en 5 procent fijn stof. Het aandeel in de emissie van stikstofoxiden stijgt, omdat de rest van het personenautopark schoner wordt als gevolg van de Europese emissienormering. De uitstoot kan in 2015 lager uitvallen als er landelijk een milieuzone wordt ingesteld waarmee alle oldtimers uit de bebouwde kom worden geweerd. De stikstofoxidenuitstoot kan dan met maximaal 2 tot 2,5 kiloton worden teruggedrongen, en de fijnstofuitstoot met maximaal 0,1 kiloton. Het zou dan moeten gaan om milieuzones die substantieel groter zijn dan de huidige milieuzones voor vrachtauto’s. Landelijk zou het aantal binnenstedelijke luchtknelpunten voor de fractie stikstofdioxide (NO2) hierdoor met circa 5 procent kunnen afnemen. Door de afname van de fijnstofuitstoot heeft een milieuzone ook positieve effecten op de gezondheid, omdat fijn stof veel schadelijker is voor de gezondheid dan stikstofdioxide. Bovengenoemde landelijke getallen en percentages kunnen in de praktijk echter niet worden bereikt, omdat een milieuzone niet overal kan worden ingevoerd. Een milieuzone kan lokaal echter wel degelijk effectief zijn om stikstofdioxideknelpunten weg te nemen en de blootstelling aan schadelijke stoffen te verminderen. Om deze lokale effecten van een milieuzone op de knelpunten en gezondheid op een verantwoorde manier te kunnen bepalen, is aanvullend onderzoek nodig. Daarbij moeten de omvang en handhaving van de milieuzone gedetailleerd worden uitgewerkt en moeten op lokaal niveau, bij voorkeur in samenwerking met gemeenten, de gevolgen voor de parksamenstelling en verkeersstromen worden ingeschat.

Heavy metals constitute an important group of persistent toxic pollutants occurring in ambient air and other media. One of the suspected sources of these metals in the atmosphere is combustion of transport fuels in road vehicles. However estimates of the emissions of these metals from road vehicles as reported in national emission inventories show a very high variability in emission factors used. This paper provides high quality data on concentrations of heavy metals in fuels and derives default emission factors from these. The paper discusses these values against the emission estimates presently reported by the Parties to the LRTAP Convention. The measured concentrations of heavy metals in petrol and diesel fuel show a high variability between different samples taken at gas stations throughout Europe. Metal concentrations in road transport fuels vary over two orders of magnitude, but all remain in the ppb region (a few tenths of a ppb to a few hundred ppb for all metals). The frequency distributions of the measurements could be approximated by lognormal distributions. We could not detect a significant difference between samples from different countries. The fuel based emission factors as derived in this study are compared with those related to lubricant use as published by Winther and Slentø (2010). For most HMs studied here, this would lead to an two to fourfold increase of the tailpipe emissions as derived from the fuel concentrations. The emission factors, including 95 percent confidence intervals were derived from a statistical analysis of the survey data. The proposed emission factors were generally lower than previously published emission factors. National emissions of heavy metals from vehicle exhaust, estimated in this study therefore are in many cases considerably lower than those reported by the countries for this source.

Heavy metals constitute an important group of persistent toxic pollutants occurring in ambient air and other media. One of the suspected sources of these metals in the atmosphere is combustion of transport fuels in road vehicles. However estimates of the emissions of these metals from road vehicles as reported in national emission inventories show a very high variability in emission factors used. This paper provides high quality data on concentrations of heavy metals in fuels and derives default emission factors from these. The paper discusses these values against the emission estimates presently reported by the Parties to the LRTAP Convention. The measured concentrations of heavy metals in petrol and diesel fuel show a high variability between different samples taken at gas stations throughout Europe. Metal concentrations in road transport fuels vary over two orders of magnitude, but all remain in the ppb region (a few tenths of a ppb to a few hundred ppb for all metals). The frequency distributions of the measurements could be approximated by lognormal distributions. We could not detect a significant difference between samples from different countries. The fuel based emission factors as derived in this study are compared with those related to lubricant use as published by Winther and Slentø (2010). For most HMs studied here, this would lead to an two to fourfold increase of the tailpipe emissions as derived from the fuel concentrations. The emission factors, including 95 percent confidence intervals were derived from a statistical analysis of the survey data. The proposed emission factors were generally lower than previously published emission factors. National emissions of heavy metals from vehicle exhaust, estimated in this study therefore are in many cases considerably lower than those reported by the countries for this source.

De luchtverontreinigende emissies van vrachtauto's en binnenvaartschepen moeten aan steeds strengere eisen voldoen. Daardoor zullen de emissies van nieuwe voer- en vaartuigen in 2020 nog maar een fractie zijn in vergelijking tot bijvoorbeeld 1990. Werkt het allemaal goed in de praktijk? En heeft het de komende jaren nog zin om over te stappen naar alternatieve brandstoffen zoals aardgas en biobrandstoffen? Of zijn alle problemen rond de luchtverontreinigende emissies straks van de baan en kunnen we de focus geheel richten op energieverbruik en CO² reductie?

In opdracht van het Ministerie van I&M heeft TNO in samenwerking met het RIVM, DCMR en GGD-Amsterdam een roetindicator geoperationaliseerd. De roetindicator is gebaseerd op elementair koolstof (EC) concentraties in de buitenlucht. Met deze indicator kunnen lokale overheden gezondheidsaspecten meewegen in besluitvorming over verkeersmaatregelen.

De luchtverontreinigende emissies van vrachtauto's en binnenvaartschepen moeten aan steeds strengere eisen voldoen. Daardoor zullen de emissies van nieuwe voer- en vaartuigen in 2020 nog maar een fractie zijn in vergelijking tot bijvoorbeeld 1990. Werkt het allemaal goed in de praktijk? En heeft het de komende jaren nog zin om over te stappen naar alternatieve brandstoffen zoals aardgas en biobrandstoffen? Of zijn alle problemen rond de luchtverontreinigende emissies straks van de baan en kunnen we de focus geheel richten op energieverbruik en CO² reductie?

Energy management in modern vehicles typically relates to optimizing the powerflow in the (hybrid) powertrain, whereas emission management is associated with the combustion engine and its aftertreatment system. To achieve maximum performance in both fuel economy and hazardous emissions, the concept of Integrated Powertrain Control (IPC) is presented. This paper presents an overview of TNOs IPC roadmap. It is shown how system integration takes a dominant role in the near future and how complexity of the powertrain is handled in a structured way. The potential benefit of IPC ís demonstrated for a commercial hybrid delivery truck case study. Based on simulations with a validated powertrain model, analysis is carried out considering the trade-off between energy management and emission management. It is demonstrated that the CO2 emissions and related operational costs allow for a reduction of 3.5%, whereas NOx emissions can be reduced up to 27%. The added value of IPC is that it targets the NOx emissions exactly at the boundary set by emission legislatíon whereas the remaining freedom is used to achieve lowest operational costs.

Energy management in modern vehicles typically relates to optimizing the powerflow in the (hybrid) powertrain, whereas emission management is associated with the combustion engine and its aftertreatment system. To achieve maximum performance in both fuel economy and hazardous emissions, the concept of Integrated Powertrain Control (IPC) is presented. This paper presents an overview of TNOs IPC roadmap. It is shown how system integration takes a dominant role in the near future and how complexity of the powertrain is handled in a structured way. The potential benefit of IPC ís demonstrated for a commercial hybrid delivery truck case study. Based on simulations with a validated powertrain model, analysis is carried out considering the trade-off between energy management and emission management. It is demonstrated that the CO2 emissions and related operational costs allow for a reduction of 3.5%, whereas NOx emissions can be reduced up to 27%. The added value of IPC is that it targets the NOx emissions exactly at the boundary set by emission legislatíon whereas the remaining freedom is used to achieve lowest operational costs.

The conversion efficiency of three way catalytic converters is mainly defined by the temperature range wherein they are operating. Traditionally, ignition retard has been used to reduce the light-off time of the catalyst. This is however associated with a fuel penalty. With increasing vehicle electrification, electrically heating facilities present an alternative, especially for hybrid vehicles. Nevertheless, system complexity of hybrid vehicles prevents engineers to evaluate possible heating technologies and their corresponding fuel penalty with respect to traditional solutions. This paper evaluates the application of an electrically heated catalyst on a hybrid vehicle equipped with a Natural Gas (NG) engine. The effect of heating power on light-off time and fuel penalty is determined, using analysis techniques emerging from integrated powertrain control. By means of a case study, the importance of an integral approach is explained by comparing the fuel penalty and conversion efficiency improvement of electric heating with that of ignition retard. In this process, a mix of simulation and test data were combined, forming the foundations for future control developments of a suitable light-off strategy. © 2010 Institut français du pétrole.

The conversion efficiency of three way catalytic converters is mainly defined by the temperature range wherein they are operating. Traditionally, ignition retard has been used to reduce the light-off time of the catalyst. This is however associated with a fuel penalty. With increasing vehicle electrification, electrically heating facilities present an alternative, especially for hybrid vehicles. Nevertheless, system complexity of hybrid vehicles prevents engineers to evaluate possible heating technologies and their corresponding fuel penalty with respect to traditional solutions. This paper evaluates the application of an electrically heated catalyst on a hybrid vehicle equipped with a Natural Gas (NG) engine. The effect of heating power on light-off time and fuel penalty is determined, using analysis techniques emerging from integrated powertrain control. By means of a case study, the importance of an integral approach is explained by comparing the fuel penalty and conversion efficiency improvement of electric heating with that of ignition retard. In this process, a mix of simulation and test data were combined, forming the foundations for future control developments of a suitable light-off strategy. © 2010 Institut français du pétrole.