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Liver transplantation for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) can be complicated by recurrence of PSC (rPSC). This may compromise graft survival but the effect on patient survival is less clear. We investigated the effect of post-transplant rPSC on graft and patient survival in a large European cohort. Registry data from the European Liver Transplant Registry regarding all first transplants for PSC between 1980 and 2015 were supplemented with detailed data on rPSC from 48 out of 138 contributing transplant centres, involving 1,549 patients. Bayesian proportional hazards models were used to investigate the impact of rPSC and other covariates on patient and graft survival. Recurrence of PSC was diagnosed in 259 patients (16.7%) after a median follow-up of 5.0 years (quantile 2.5%-97.5%: 0.4–18.5), with a significant negative impact on both graft (HR 6.7; 95% CI 4.9–9.1) and patient survival (HR 2.3; 95% CI 1.5–3.3). Patients with rPSC underwent significantly more re-transplants than those without rPSC (OR 3.6, 95% CI 2.7–4.8). PSC recurrence has a negative impact on both graft and patient survival, independent of transplant-related covariates. Recurrence of PSC leads to higher number of re-transplantations and a 33% decrease in 10-year graft survival.

Background and aims: Early prediction of the effect of vedolizumab (VDZ) in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is of paramount importance to guide clinical decisions. This study assessed whether early fecal calprotectin (FC) can predict endoscopic response and histologic remission after VDZ initiation. Methods: This was a prospective study. Inclusion criteria were endoscopic inflammation and FC >100 µg/g. FC was determined at baseline and weeks 2, 4, 8 and 16. At week 16, endoscopies with ileal and colonic biopsies were performed. FC changes were assessed with Wilcoxon Rank Sum tests. ROC statistics were used to assess the diagnostic accuracy of FC. Results: In total, 45 patients [27 Crohn’s disease (CD), 16/2 ulcerative colitis (UC)/IBD-unclassified] [40% males, median age 39 (28–51) years] were included. Week 16 endoscopic response and histologic remission rates were 58% and 33%. A median 37% decline in FC at week 2 was observed only in endoscopic responders, p = 0.025. FC <250 µg/g at week 8 predicted endoscopic response in both UC and CD (positive predictive value 100%), whereas absence of FC decline at week 8 corresponded with absence of endoscopic response in CD [negative predictive value (NPV) 82%] and absence of histologic remission in both UC and CD (NPV 90%). Conclusion: The onset of a decline in FC as early as week 2 is associated with endoscopic response to VDZ induction. FC <250 µg/g at week 8 is associated with endoscopic response, whereas absence of FC decline at week 8 is associated with absence of both endoscopic response and histologic remission. FC levels 8 weeks after the start of VDZ could be used to guide clinical decisions and might substitute for endoscopic response evaluation.

Objective Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) often affects women in their fertile age, and is known to compromise female fertility. Serum anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels are a proxy for the total number of primordial follicles, and a reliable predictor of the age at menopause. Our objective was to study the longitudinal intra-individual decline of serum AMH levels in female RA patients. Methods Female RA patients from a nationwide prospective cohort (2002–2008) were re-assesse

Background and Aims: Contaminated duodenoscopes and linear echoendoscopes (DLEs) pose a risk for infectious outbreaks. To identify DLEs and reprocessing risk factors, we combined the data from the previously published nationwide cross-sectional PROCESS 1 study (Prevalence of contamination of complex endoscopes in the Netherlands) with the follow-up PROCESS 2 study. Methods: We invited all 74 Dutch DLE centers to sample ≥2 duodenoscopes during PROCESS 1, and all duodenoscopes as well as linear echoendoscopes during PROCESS 2. The studies took place 1 year after another. Local staff sampled each DLE at ≤6 sites according to uniform methods explained by online videos. We used 2 contamination definitions: (1) any microorganism with ≥20 colony-forming units (CFU)/20 mL (AM20) and (2) presence of microorganisms with GI or oral origin, independent of CFU count (MGOs). We assessed the factors of age and usage by performing an analysis of pooled data of both PROCESS studies; additional factors including reprocessing characteristics were only recorded in PROCESS 2. Results: Ninety-seven percent of all Dutch centers (72 of 74; PROCESS 1, 66; PROCESS 2, 61) participated in one of the studies, sampling 309 duodenoscopes and 64 linear echoendoscopes. In total, 54 (17%) duodenoscopes and 8 (13%) linear echoendoscopes were contaminated according to the AM20 definition. MGOs were detected on 47 (15%) duodenoscopes and 9 (14%) linear echoendoscopes. Contamination

Dietary lifestyle intervention is key in treating non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We aimed to examine the longitudinal relation between well-established dietary patterns as well as population-specific dietary patterns and NAFLD. Participants from two subsequent visits of the Rotterdam Study were included. All underwent serial abdominal ultrasonography (median follow-up: 4.4 years) and filled in a food frequency questionnaire. Secondary causes of steatosis were excluded. Dietary data from 389 items were collapsed into 28 food groups and a posteriori dietary patterns were identified using factor analysis. Additionally, we scored three a priori dietary patterns (Mediterranean Diet Score, Dutch Dietary Guidelines and WHO-score). Logistic mixed regression models were used to examine the relation between dietary patterns and NAFLD. Analyses were adjusted for demographic, lifestyle and metabolic factors. We included 963 participants of whom 343 had NAFLD. Follow-up data was available in 737 participants. Incident NAFLD was 5% and regressed NAFLD was 30%. We identified five a posteriori dietary patterns (cumulative explained variation [R2] = 20%). The patterns were characterised as: vegetable and fish, red meat and alcohol, traditional, salty snacks and sauces, high fat dairy & refined grains pattern. Adherence to the traditional pattern (i.e. high intake of vegetable oils/stanols, margarines/butters, potatoes, whole grains and sweets/desserts) was associated with regression of NAFLD per SD increase in Z-score (0.40, 95% CI 0.15–1.00). Adherence to the three a priori patterns all showed regression of NAFLD, but only the WHO-score showed a distinct association (0.73, 95% CI 0.53–1.00). Hence, in this large elderly population, adherence to a plant-based, high-fibre and low-fat diet was related to regression of NAFLD.

Missing values are a pervasive problem in almost all kinds of studies. In large cohort studies, the type of study most often conducted in the field of epidemiology, missing observations in covariates pose the major challenge. Since measurements are taken in an uncontrolled environment, typically many covariates need to be considered as potential confounders to filter out unwanted influences that environmental factors may have on the estimates of interest. Due to the large number of variables measured and the fact that measurement often relies on participants recalling and reporting detailed information, large proportions of missing data are common in these types of studies. In light of the above, the research that forms this thesis focuses on the analysis of incomplete cohort study data where missingness is in the covariates. We describe a fully Bayesian approach to analyse and impute data in this setting and discuss a number of naive and more sophisticated approaches to impute such data using multiple imputation with chained equations (MICE). The fully Bayesian approach is applied to multiple applications from the field of Epidemiology, and is further extended to settings with time-varying covariates, in which additional challenges, such as the functional form of the association between outcome and covariate and potential endogeneity arise. Moreover, the implementation of the fully Bayesian approach in the R package JointAI is described and illustrated by means

Background: Childhood eczema is variable in onset and persistence. Objectives: To identify eczema phenotypes during childhood, and their associations with early-life environmental and genetic factors. Methods: In this study of 5297 children from a multiethnic population-based prospective cohort study, phenotypes based on parent-reported physician-diagnosed ec

Background: Evidence for the efficacy of TIPSS in ectopic variceal bleeding (EctVB) is largely based on relatively small series. Aim: To define the efficacy of TIPSS in EctVB. Methods: Retrospective analysis of consecutive patients with chronic liver disease who presented with EctVB and received TIPSS in three tertiary centres in 1992-2016. Results: The study included 53 patients (70% male, median age 61 years, median model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score 11). The ectopic varices were located around the insertion of stomas (40%), duodenum (23%), rectum (17%) and at other sites (20%). Three-quarters of the patients had previously received unsuccessful medical, endoscopic or surgical therapy. The median follow-up was 14.0 months. Following TIPSS, bleeding recurred in 12 patients: 6 of 12 (50%) with duodenal varices, 2 of 9 (22%) with rectal varices and one each with stomal (1/21), intraperitoneal (1/3), hepaticojejunostomy (1/2) and ascending colon varices (1/2). The risk factors for re-bleeding were MELD score at TIPSS placement (HR: 1.081 per point; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.012-1.153; P = 0.034), varices located at site other than an enterostomy (HR: 9.770; 95%CI

Background: Knowledge about bacterascites is limited and management guidelines are based on small patient series. The purpose of this study was to add further insight into the clinical characteristics, microbiological findings, and prognosis of patients diagnosed with bacterascites. Methods: Retrospective analysis of patients with advanced chronic liver disease diagnosed with bacterascites and SBP between January 2003 and August 2016. Results: In this study, 123 patients were included with 142 episodes of bacterascites. The median MELD score was 20 and clinical symptoms of infection were present in 78%. Empiric antibiotic treatment was initiated in 68

TLR7 agonists are of high interest for the treatment of cancer, auto-immunity and chronic viral infections. They are known to activate plasmacytoid dendritic cells (pDCs) to produce high amounts of Type I Interferon (IFN) and to facilitate T and B cell responses, the latter with the help of maturation markers such as CD40, CD80 and CD86. The TLR7 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs179008 (GLn11Leu), sex and chronic viral infection have all been reported to influence pDC IFN production. It is unknown, however, whether these factors also influence pDC phenotypic maturation and thereby IFN-independent pDC functions. Furthermore, it is unclear whether SNP rs179008 influences HBV susceptibility and/or clearance. Here we investigated whether the SNP rs179008, sex and HBV infection affected phenotypic maturation of pDCs from 38 healthy individuals and 28 chronic HBV patients. In addition, we assessed SNP prevalence in a large cohort of healthy individuals (n = 231) and chronic HBV patients (n = 1054). Consistent with previous reports, the rs179008 variant allele was largely absent in Asians and more prevalent in Caucasians. Among Caucasians, the SNP was equally prevalent in healthy and chronically infected males. The SNP was, however, significantly more prevalent in healthy females than in those with chronic HBV infection (42 versus 28%), suggesting that in females it may offer protection from chronic infection. Ex vivo experiments demonstrated that induction of the co-stimulatory molecules CD40 and CD86 by TLR7 ligands, but not TLR9 ligands, was augmented in pDCs from healthy SNP-carrying females. Furthermore, CD80 and CD86 upregulation was more pronounced in females independent of the SNP. Lastly, our data suggested that chronic HBV infection impairs pDC maturation. Th

Background: Recent investigations suggest an increasing prevalence of Gram-positive and antibiotic-resistant bacteria causing spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), probably related to changes in antibiotic prescription patterns, in particular more widespread and long-term use of antibiotic prophylaxis with quinolones. Objective: The primary objective of this study was to assess potential changes in the microbiology of SBP in two patient cohorts studied at a 10-year interval. Further aims were to study prognostic factors and outcome of SBP. Methods: A retrospective double-cohort study, including all ascitic cultures from patients with cirrhosis obtained 2003–2005 and 2013–2014, was conducted. Results: In total 312 patients were included, 125 patients in the first and 187 patients in the second cohort. SBP was diagnosed in 132 of 840 analyzed ascitic fluid samples; 62 samples were culture positive. An increase of Gram-positive bacterial isolates was noted from 26% to 46% between cohorts (p = 0.122). The prevalence of multidrug-antibiotic–resistant pathogens increased from 25% to 32% (p = 0.350). Survival after SBP among the two cohorts was comparable. Conclusion: This single-center study in the Netherlands found a modest but nonsignificant increase in the proportion of patients with SBP caused by Gram-positive bacteria and multidrug-antibiotic–resistant bacteria over a 10-year period. Our findings differ from reported data in other countries and suggest empiric antibiotic prophylaxis and treatment of SBP should be based on national and regional microbiological findings and resistance patterns.

Studies involving large observational datasets commonly face the challenge of dealing with multiple missing values. The most popular approach to overcome this challenge, multiple imputation using chained equations, however, has been shown to be sub-optimal in complex settings, specifically in settings with longitudinal outcomes, which cannot be easily and adequately included in the imputation models. Bayesian methods avoid this difficulty by specification of a joint distribution and thus offer an alternative. A popular choice for that joint distribution is the multivariate normal distribution. In more complicated settings, as in our two motivating examples that involve time-varying covariates, additional issues require consideration: the endo- or exogeneity of the covariate and its functional relation with the outcome. In such situations, the implied assumptions of standard methods may be violated, resulting in bias. In this work, we extend and study a more flexible, Bayesian alternative to the multivariate normal approach, to better handle complex incomplete longitudinal data. We discuss and compare assumptions of the two Bayesian approaches about the endo- or exogeneity of the covariates and the functional form of the association with the outcome, and illustrate and evaluate consequences of violations of those assumptions using simulation studies and two real data examples.

Studies involving large observational datasets commonly face the challenge of dealing with multiple missing values. The most popular approach to overcome this challenge, multiple imputation using chained equations, however, has been shown to be sub-optimal in complex settings, specifically in settings with longitudinal outcomes, which cannot be easily and adequately included in the imputation models. Bayesian methods avoid this difficulty by specification of a joint distribution and thus offer an alternative. A popular choice for that joint distribution is the multivariate normal distribution. In more complicated settings, as in our two motivating examples that involve time-varying covariates, additional issues require consideration: the endo- or exogeneity of the covariate and its functional relation with the outcome. In such situations, the implied assumptions of standard methods may be violated, resulting in bias. In this work, we extend and study a more flexible, Bayesian alternative to the multivariate normal approach, to better handle complex incomplete longitudinal data. We discuss and compare assumptions of the two Bayesian approaches about the endo- or exogeneity of the covariates and the functional form of the association with the outcome, and illustrate and evaluate consequences of violations of those assumptions using simulation studies and two real data examples.

Background/Objective: Intake of sugar-containing beverages (SCBs) has been associated with higher body mass index (BMI) in childhood. The potential effect of SCB intake during infancy is unclear. We examined the association of SCB intake at 13 months with BMI development until 6 years and body composition at age 6 years. Subjects/Methods: This study included 2371 Dutch children from a population-based prospective cohort study. SCB intake at 13 months was assessed using a Food Frequency Questionnaire with validation against 24-h recalls and was standardized for total energy. BMI was calculated from repeated weight and height measurements, and age- and sex-specific s.d. scores were calculated. Adiposity was measured using Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Results: In girls, higher SCB intake at 13 months was significantly associated with higher BMI at ages 2, 3, 4 and 6 years (at age 6 years BMI (s.d. score) increase 0.11 (95% confidence interval (CI) +0.00; 0.23), high versus low intake). We observed a tendency towards higher android/gynoid fat ratio in girls with high intake (s.d. increase 0.14 (95% CI -0.02; 0.29), versus low intake) but not with body fat percentage. In boys, there was no association with BMI or body composition, but boys with high SCB intake at 13 months were t

Abnormal gestational weight gain (GWG) is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. We examined whether dietary patterns are associated with GWG. Participants included 3374 pregnant women from a population-based cohort in the Netherlands. Dietary intake during pregnancy was assessed with food-frequency questionnaires. Three a posteriori-derived dietary patterns were identified using principal component analysis: a “Vegetable, oil and fish”, a “Nuts, high-fiber cereals and soy”, and a “Margarine, sugar and snacks” pattern. The a priori-defined dietary pattern was based on national dietary recommendations. Weight was repeatedly measured around 13, 20 and 30 weeks of pregnancy; pre-pregnancy and maximum weight were self-reported. Normal weight women with high adherence to the “Vegetable, oil and fish” pattern had higher early-pregnancy GWG than those with low adherence (43 g/week (95% CI 16; 69) for highest vs. lowest quartile (Q)). Adherence to the “Margarine, sugar and snacks” pattern was associated with a higher prevalence of excessive GWG (OR 1.45 (95% CI 1.06; 1.99) Q4 vs. Q1). Normal weight women with higher scores on the “Nuts, high-fiber cereals and soy” pattern had more moderate GWG than women with lower scores (-0.01 (95% CI 0.02; -0.00) per SD). The a priori-defined pattern was not associated with GWG. To conclude, specific dietary patterns may play a role in early pregnancy but are not consistently associated with GWG.