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We apply methods from randomized numerical linear algebra (RandNLA) to develop improved algorithms for the analysis of large-scale time series data. We first develop a new fast algorithm to estimate the leverage scores of an autoregressive (AR) model in big data regimes. We show that the accuracy of approximations lies within (1 + O(")) of the true leverage scores with high probability. These theoretical results are subsequently exploited to develop an effcient algorithm, called LSAR, for fitting an appropriate AR model to big time series data. Our proposed algorithm is guaranteed, with high probability, to find the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of the underlying true AR model and has a worst case running time that significantly improves those of the state-of-the-art alternatives in big data regimes. Empirical results on large-scale synthetic as well as real data highly support the theoretical results and reveal the effcacy of this new approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The novel coronavirus COVID-19 arrived on Australian shores around 25 January 2020. This paper presents a novel method of dynamically modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia with a high degree of accuracy and in a timely manner using limited data; a valuable resource that can be used to guide government decision-making on societal restrictions on a daily and/or weekly basis. The "partially-observable stochastic process" used in this study predicts not only the future actual values with extremely low error, but also the percentage of unobserved COVID-19 cases in the population. The model can further assist policy makers to assess the effectiveness of several possible alternative scenarios in their decision-making processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the problem of choosing the best subset of $p$ features in linear regression, given $n$ observations. This problem naturally contains two objective functions including minimizing the amount of bias and minimizing the number of predictors. The existing approaches transform the problem into a single-objective optimization problem. We explain the main weaknesses of existing approaches and, to overcome their drawbacks, we propose a bi-objective mixed integer linear programming approach. A computational study shows the efficacy of the proposed approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the Fisher Information for the birth rate of a partially observable simple birth process involvingnobservations. We suppose that at each observation time, each individual in the population can be observed independently with known fixed probabilityp. Finding an analytical form of the Fisher Information in general appears intractable. Nonetheless, we find a very good approximation for the Fisher Information by exploiting the probabilistic properties of the underlying stochastic process. Both numerical and theoretical results strongly support the latter approximation and confirm its high level of accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In this paper, we present some algebraic properties of a particular class of probability transition matrices, namely, Hamiltonian transition matrices. Each matrix $$P$$ in this class corresponds to a Hamiltonian cycle in a given graph $$G$$ on $$n$$ nodes and to an irreducible, periodic, Markov chain. We show that a number of important matrices traditionally associated with Markov chains, namely, the stationary, fundamental, deviation and the hitting time matrix all have elegant expansions in the first $$n-1$$ powers of $$P$$ , whose coefficients can be explicitly derived. We also consider the resolvent-like matrices associated with any given Hamiltonian cycle and its reverse cycle and prove an identity about the product of these matrices. As an illustration of these analytical results, we exploit them to develop a new heuristic algorithm to determine a non-Hamiltonicity of a given graph. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a new hybrid algorithm for the Hamiltonian cycle problem by synthesizing the Cross Entropy method and Markov decision processes. In particular, this new algorithm assigns a random length to each arc and alters the Hamiltonian cycle problem to the travelling salesman problem. Thus, there is now a probability corresponding to each arc that denotes the probability of the event 'this arc is located on the shortest tour.' Those probabilities are then updated as in cross entropy method and used to set a suitable linear programming model. If the solution of the latter yields any tour, the graph is Hamiltonian. Numerical results reveal that when the size of graph is small, say less than 50 nodes, there is a high chance the algorithm will be terminated in its cross entropy component by simply generating a Hamiltonian cycle, randomly. However, for larger graphs, in most of the tests the algorithm terminated in its optimization component (by solving the proposed linear program). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]