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Abstract Background HIV-1 is endemic in Botswana. The country’s primary challenge is identifying people living with HIV who are unaware of their status. We evaluated factors associated with undiagnosed HIV infection using HIV-1 phylogenetic, behavioural, and demographic data. Methods As part of the Botswana Combination Prevention Project, 20% of households in 30 villages were tested for HIV and followed from 2013 to 2018. A total of 12,610 participants were enrolled, 3596 tested HIV-positive at enrolment, and 147 participants acquired HIV during the trial. Extensive socio-demographic and behavioural data were collected from participants and next-generation sequences were generated for HIV-positive cases. We compared three groups of participants: (1) those previously known to be HIV-positive at enrolment (n = 2995); (2) those newly diagnosed at enrolment (n = 601) and (3) those who tested HIV-negative at enrolment but tested HIV-positive during follow-up (n = 147). We searched for differences in demographic and behavioural factors between known and newly diagnosed group using logistic regression. We also compared the topology of each group in HIV-1 phylogenies and used a genetic diversity-based algorithm to classify infections as recent (

Chronic nicotine exposure impacts various components of decision-making processes, such as exploratory behaviors. Here, the authors identify the cellular mechanism and show that chronic nicotine exposure increases the tonic activity of VTA dopaminergic neurons and reduces exploration in mice.

The COVID-19 epidemic was reported in the Hubei province in China in December 2019 and then spread around the world reaching the pandemic stage at the beginning of March 2020. Since then, several countries went into lockdown. Using a mechanistic-statistical formalism, we estimate the effect of the lockdown in France on the contact rate and the effective reproduction number Re of the COVID-19. We obtain a reduction by a factor 7 (Re = 0.47, 95%-CI: 0.45–0.50), compared to the estimates carried out in France at the early stage of the epidemic. We also estimate the fraction of the population that would be infected by the beginning of May, at the official date at which the lockdown should be relaxed. We find a fraction of 3.7% (95%-CI: 3.0–4.8%) of the total French population, without taking into account the number of recovered individuals before April 1st, which is not known. This proportion is seemingly too low to reach herd immunity. Thus, even if the lockdown strongly mitigated the first epidemic wave, keeping a low value of Re is crucial to avoid an uncontrolled second wave (initiated with much more infectious cases than the first wave) and to hence avoid the saturation of hospital facilities.

While population genetics of Schistosoma haematobium have been investigated in West Africa, only scant data are available from Côte d’Ivoire. The purpose of this study was to analyze both genetic variability and genetic structure among S. haematobium populations and to quantify the frequency of S. haematobium × S. bovis hybrids in school-aged children in different parts of Côte d’Ivoire. Urine samples were subjected to a filtration method and examined microscopically for Schistosoma eggs in four sites in the western and southern parts of Côte d’Ivoire. A total of 2692 miracidia were collected individually and stored on Whatman® FTA cards. Of these, 2561 miracidia were successfully genotyped for species and hybrid identification using rapid diagnostic multiplex mitochondrial cox1 PCR and PCR Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) analysis of the nuclear ITS2 region. From 2164 miracidia, 1966 (90.9%) were successfully genotyped using at least 10 nuclear microsatellite loci to investigate genetic diversity and population structure. Significant differences were found between sites in all genetic diversity indices and genotypic differentiation was observed between the site in the West and the three sites in the East. Analysis at the infrapopulation level revealed clustering of parasite genotypes within individual children, particularly in Duekoué (West) and Sikensi (East). Of the six possible cox1-ITS2 genetic profiles obtained from miracidia, S. bovis cox1 × S. haematobium ITS2 (42.0%) was the most commonly observed in the populations. We identified only 15 miracidia (0.7%) with an S. bovis cox1 × S. bovis ITS2 genotype. Our study provides new insights into the population genetics of S. haematobium and S. haematobium × S. bovis hybrids in humans in Côte d’Ivoire and we advocate for researching hybrid schistosomes in animals such as rodents and cattle in Côte d’Ivoire.

The number of screening tests carried out in France and the methodology used to target the patients tested do not allow for a direct computation of the actual number of cases and the infection fatality ratio (IFR). The main objective of this work is to estimate the actual number of people infected with COVID-19 and to deduce the IFR during the observation window in France. We develop a ‘mechanistic-statistical’ approach coupling a SIR epidemiological model describing the unobserved epidemiological dynamics, a probabilistic model describing the data acquisition process and a statistical inference method. The actual number of infected cases in France is probably higher than the observations: we find here a factor ×8 (95%-CI: 5–12) which leads to an IFR in France of 0.5% (95%-CI: 0.3–0.8) based on hospital death counting data. Adjusting for the number of deaths in nursing homes, we obtain an IFR of 0.8% (95%-CI: 0.45–1.25). This IFR is consistent with previous findings in China (0.66%) and in the UK (0.9%) and lower than the value previously computed on the Diamond Princess cruse ship data (1.3%).

Abstract Understanding how invasive species establish and spread is vital for developing effective management strategies for invaded areas and identifying new areas where the risk of invasion is highest. We investigated the explanatory power of dispersal histories reconstructed based on local‐scale wind data and a regional‐scale wind‐dispersed particle trajectory model for the invasive seed chalcid wasp Megastigmus schimitscheki (Hymenoptera: Torymidae) in France. The explanatory power was tested by: (1) survival analysis of empirical data on M. schimitscheki presence, absence and year of arrival at 52 stands of the wasp's obligate hosts, Cedrus (true cedar trees); and (2) Approximate Bayesian analysis of M. schimitscheki genetic data using a coalescence model. The Bayesian demographic modeling and traditional population genetic analysis suggested that initial invasion across the range was the result of long‐distance dispersal from the longest established sites. The survival analyses of the windborne expansion patterns derived from a particle dispersal model indicated that there was an informative correlation between the M. schimitscheki presence/absence data from the annual surveys and the scenarios based on regional‐scale wind data. These three very different analyses produced highly congruent results supporting our proposal that wind is the most probable vector for passive long‐distance dispersal of this invasive seed wasp. This result confirms that long‐distance dispersal from introduction areas is a likely driver of secondary expansion of alien invasive species. Based on our results, management programs for this and other windborne invasive species may consider (1) focusing effort at the longest established sites and (2) monitoring outlying populations remains critically important due to their influence on rates of spread. We also suggest that there is a distinct need for new analysis methods that have the capacity to combine empirical spatiotemporal field data, genetic data, and environmental data to investigate dispersal and invasion.

Schistosomiasis is a parasitic disease affecting more than 250 million people, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa. In Côte d’Ivoire both Schistosoma haematobium (causing urogenital schistosomiasis) and Schistosoma mansoni (causing intestinal schistosomiasis) co-exist. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of S. haematobium and S. mansoni and to identify risk factors among schoolchildren in the western and southern parts of Côte d’Ivoire. From January to April 2018, a cross-sectional study was carried out including 1187 schoolchildren aged 5−14 years. Urine samples were examined by a filtration method to identify and count S. haematobium eggs, while stool samples were subjected to duplicate Kato-Katz thick smears to quantify eggs of S. mansoni and soil-transmitted helminths. Data on sociodemographic, socioeconomic, and environmental factors were obtained using a pretested questionnaire. Multivariate logistic regression was employed to test for associations between variables. We found a prevalence of S. haematobium of 14.0% (166 of 1187 schoolchildren infected) and a prevalence of S. mansoni of 6.1% (66 of 1089 schoolchildren infected). In the southern part of Côte d’Ivoire, the prevalence of S. haematobium was 16.1% with a particularly high prevalence observed in Sikensi (35.6%), while S. mansoni was most prevalent in Agboville (11.2%). Swimming in open freshwater bodies was the main risk factor for S. haematobium infection (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 127.0, 95% confidence interval (CI): 25.0−634.0, p < 0.001). Fishing and washing clothes in open freshwater bodies were positively associated with S. haematobium and S. mansoni infection, respectively. Preventive chemotherapy using praziquantel should be combined with setting-specific information, education, and communication strategies in order to change children’s behavior, thus avoiding contact with unprotected open freshwater.

Most seed plants produce both pollen and ovules. In principle, pollen export could interfere with pollen import through self‐pollination, resulting in ovule usurpation and reduced fruit set. Evidence for such interference exists under experimental settings but its importance under natural conditions is unknown. To test for sexual interference in nature, it is necessary to study together mating system, through paternity analyses, and fruit set, the proportion of flowers giving seeds or fruits. We developed a new model combining both processes, using chestnut (Castanea) as case study. We carried out a paternity analysis in an intensively studied plot of 273 trees belonging to three interfertile chestnut species and including a range of individuals with more or less functional stamens, resulting in a large data set of 1924 mating events. We then measured fruit set on 216 of these trees. Fruit set of male‐fertile trees was much lower than that of male‐sterile trees. Our process‐based model shows that pollen is not limiting in the study site and hence cannot account for reduced fruit set. It also indicates that self‐pollination is high (74%) but selfing rate is low (4%). Self‐pollen is less competitive than cross‐pollen, reducing sexual interference, but not sufficiently, as many ovules end up being self‐fertilized, 95% of which abort before fruit formation, resulting in the loss of 46% of the fruit crop. These results suggest that the main cause of reduced reproductive potential in chestnut is sexual interference by self‐pollen, raising questions on its evolutionary origins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]