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Background: Gold mining activities in South Africa resulted in contamination of residential environment with uranium-rich wastes from mine tailings. Health of the people living around the mine tailings could be affected by uranium exposure due to its hazardous chemotoxic and radiological properties. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study to assess i) uranium (U) concentrations in individual hair samples of children and adults living in close proximity to mine tailings in Northeast-Soweto in Johannesburg, South Africa, and ii) the association between U concentrations in hair and various factors, including zone of residence, socio-demographic and housing characteristics. Sampling sites were divided into three zones based on the distance between a dwelling and a cluster of mine tailings (zone 1

Purpose The association of hyperthyroidism with exposure to ionizing radiation is poorly understood. This study addresses the risk of hyperthyroidism in relation to incidental therapeutic radiation dose to the thyroid and pituitary glands in a large cohort of survivors of childhood cancer. Methods and Materials Using the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study's cohort of 5-year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed at hospitals in the United States and Canada between 1970 and 1986, the occurrence of hyperthyroidism through 2009 was ascertained among 12,183 survivors who responded to serial questionnaires. Radiation doses to the thyroid and pituitary glands were estimated from radiation therapy records, and chemotherapy exposures were abstracted from medical records. Binary outcome regression was used to estimate prevalence odds ratios (ORs) for hyperthyroidism at 5 years from diagnosis of childhood cancer and Poisson regression to estimate incidence rate ratios (RRs) after the first 5 years. Results Survivors reported 179 cases of hyperthyroidism, of which 148 were diagnosed 5 or more years after their cancer diagnosis. The cumulative proportion of survivors diagnosed with hyperthyroidism by 30 years after the cancer diagnosis was 2.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.0%-2.9%) among those who received radiation therapy. A linear relation adequately described the thyroid radiation dose response for prevalence of self-reported hyperthyroidism 5 years after cancer diagnosis (excess OR/Gy, 0.24; 95% CI, 0.06-0.95) and incidence rate thereafter (excess RR/Gy, 0.06; 95% CI, 0.03-0.14) over the dose range of 0 to 63 Gy. Neither radiation dose to the pituitary gland nor chemotherapy was associated significantly with hyperthyroidism. Radiation-associated risk remained elevated >25 years after exposure. Conclusions Risk of hyperthyroidism after radiation therapy during childhood is positively associated with external radiation dose to the thyroid gland, with radiation-related excess risk persisting for >25 years. Neither radiation dose to the pituitary gland nor chemotherapy exposures were associated with hyperthyroidism among childhood cancer survivors through early adulthood.

The Chernobyl accident on 26 April 1986 led to a sharp increase in thyroid cancer (TC) incidence in the individuals exposed to radiation in childhood. The major risk factor for TC was exposure to Iodine-131 (131I). Here, we estimated the thyroid doses due to 131I intake for 2041 participants of the genome-wide association study of TC in Belarusian people exposed to radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident. The following parameter-values specially developed in this study were used to estimate individual thyroid doses: (i) scaling factors for adjustment of the model-based doses, (ii) age and gender diet to characterize 131I intake, and (iii) area-, age- and gender-specific S-values for the thyroid gland per 131I decay in the thyroid. The most reliable doses were calculated for 103 people with measured 131I thyroid activity (the arithmetic mean of 1.2 Gy, median 0.52 Gy), and 275 individuals with detailed residential history and dietary data (the arithmetic mean of 0.41 Gy, median 0.24 Gy). The arithmetic mean of thyroid doses among all study participants was 0.23 Gy (median 0.082 Gy); the highest individual dose was 9.0 Gy. Special attention was paid to the reliability and validity of the obtained estimates, in particular for the individuals without 131I thyroid activity measurements and individual data on residential history and diet, by comparing those with the doses from other post-Chernobyl epidemiological studies. Overall, the doses estimated in the current study were in reasonable agreement with previously reported thyroid doses. These doses will be used in the genome-wide association study of TC in people exposed in Belarus to 131I after the Chernobyl accident.

ObjectivesExposure assessment for retrospective industrial cohorts are often hampered by limited availability of historical measurements. This study describes the development of company-specific job-exposure matrices (JEMs) based on measurements collected over five decades for a cohort study of 35 837 workers (Asbest Chrysotile Cohort Study) in the Russian Federation to estimate their cumulative exposure to chrysotile containing dust and fibres.MethodsAlmost 100 000 recorded stationary dust measurements were available from 1951-2001 (factories) and 1964–2001 (mine). Linear mixed models were used to extrapolate for years where measurements were not available or missing. Fibre concentrations were estimated using conversion factors based on side-by-side comparisons. Dust and fibre JEMs were developed and exposures were allocated by linking them to individual workers’ detailed occupational histories.ResultsThe cohort covered a total of 515 355 employment-years from 1930 to 2010. Of these individuals, 15% worked in jobs not considered professionally exposed to chrysotile. The median cumulative dust exposure was 26 mg/m3 years for the entire cohort and 37.2 mg/m3 years for those professionally exposed. Median cumulative fibre exposure was 16.4 fibre/cm3 years for the entire cohort and 23.4 fibre/cm3 years for those professionally exposed. Cumulative exposure was highly dependent on birth cohort and gender. Of those professionally exposed, women had higher cumulative exposures than men as they were more often employed in factories with higher exposure concentrations rather than in the mine.ConclusionsUnique company-specific JEMs were derived using a rich measurement database that overlapped with most employment-years of cohort members and will enable estimation of quantitative exposure–response.

Exposure of the thyroid gland to ionizing radiation at a young age is the main recognized risk factor for differentiated thyroid cancer. After the Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear accidents, thyroid cancer screening was implemented mainly for children, leading to case over-diagnosis as seen in South Korea after the implementation of opportunistic screening (where subjects are recruited at healthcare sites). The aim of cancer screening is to reduce morbidity and mortality, but screening can also cause negative effects on health (with unnecessary treatment if over-diagnosis) and on quality of life. This paper from the SHAMISEN special issue (Nuclear Emergency Situations - Improvement of Medical And Health Surveillance) presents the principles of cancer screening, the lessons learned from thyroid cancer screening, as well as the knowledge on thyroid cancer incidence after exposure to iodine-131. The SHAMISEN Consortium recommends to envisage systematic health screening after a nuclear accident, only when appropriately justified, i.e. ensuring that screening will do more good than harm. Based on the experience of the Fukushima screening, the consortium does not recommend mass or population-based thyroid cancer screening, as the negative psychological and physical effects are likely to outweigh any possible benefit in affected populations; thyroid health monitoring should however be made available to persons who request it (regardless of whether they are at increased risk or not), accompanied with appropriate information and support. This work was funded by OPERRA (Open Project for the European Radiation Research Area: EC FP7, grant agreement 604984) and the Norwegian Research Council (NFR project number 263856). ISGlobal acknowledges support from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities through the “Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa 2019–2023” Programme (CEX2018-000806-S), and support from the Generalitat de Catalunya through the CERCA Programme (http://cerca.cat/en/).

Incidence of differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) varies considerably between ethnic groups, with particularly high incidence rates in Pacific Islanders. Here, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) involving 1,554 cases/1,973 controls of European ancestry and 301 cases/348 controls of Oceanian ancestry from the EPITHYR consortium. Our results confirmed the association with the known DTC susceptibility loci at 2q35, 8p12, 9q22.33 and 14q13.3 in the European ancestry population and suggested two novel signals at 1p31.3 (rs334729) and 16q23.2 (rs16950982), which were associated with TSH levels in previous GWAS. We additionally replicated an association with 5p15.33 reported previously in Chinese and European populations. Except at 1p31.3, all associations were in the same direction in the population of Oceanian ancestry. The frequency of risk alleles at 2q35, 5p15.33 and 16q23.2 were significantly higher in Oceanians than in Europeans and may explain part of the highest DTC incidence observed in Oceanians.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementINCA (grant number 9533) and ARC (grant number PGA120150202302), Ligue Nationale Contre le Cancer, Agence Nationale pour la Recherche (ANR), the Direction Generale de la Sante, the Agence Francaise de Securite Sanitaire de l alimentation, de lenvironnement et du travail (ANSES), CHILDTHYR EEC program, and the Fondation de France. JG and CX were the recipient of a PhD fellowship from Region Ile-de-France.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:All participants provided informed consent and each study was approved by their governing ethics committee.All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesThe data that support the findings of this study are available on request from the corresponding author. The data are not publicly available due to privacy or ethical restrictions. (Less)

International audience; Differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) incidence is characterized by wide ethnic and geographic variations, with high incidence rates observed in Oceanian populations. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) identified mainly four DTC susceptibility loci at 9q22.33, 14q13.3, 2q35 and 8p12. Here we performed fine-mapping of the 2q35 and 8p12 loci in the population of the EPITHYR consortium that includes Europeans, Melanesians and Polynesians to identify likely causal variants for DTC risk. We conducted a colocalization analysis using eQTLs data to determine the SNPs with the highest probability of causality. At 2q35, we highlighted rs16857609 located in DIRC3. This SNP has a high probability of causality in the three populations, and a significant association in Europeans (OR = 1.4, p = 1.9 x 10-10). It is also associated with expression of DIRC3 and of the nearby gene IGFBP5 in thyroid tumour cells. At 8p12, we identified rs7844425 which was significantly associated with DTC in Europeans (OR = 1.32, p = 7.6 x 10-8) and rs2439304, which was highlighted by the colocalization analysis but only moderately associated with DTC in our dataset (OR = 1.2, p = 0.001). These SNPs are linked to the expression of NRG1 in thyroid tissue. Hence, our study identified novel variants at 2q35 and 8p12 to be prioritized for further functional studies.

Even 30 years after the accident, an association between breast cancer incidence and ionizing radiation exposure from Chernobyl fallout remains uncertain. We studied breast cancer incidence in the most contaminated regions of Belarus (Gomel and Mogilev) and Ukraine (Kyiv, Zhytomyr and Chernihiv) before (1978-1986) and after (1987-2016) the accident. Breast cancer cases and female population size data were received from the national cancer registries and the state departments of statistics. The study included 85 132 breast cancers with 150 million person-years at risk. We estimated annual rayon (district)-average absorbed doses to the breast from external and internal irradiation of the adult female population over the period of 1986-2016. We studied an association between rayon-average cumulative absorbed breast dose with 5-year lag, that is, excluding the exposure in 5 years prior to breast cancer diagnosis, and breast cancer incidence using negative binomial regression models. Mean (median) cumulative breast dose in 2016 was 12.3 (5.0) milligray (mGy) in Belarus and 5.7 (2.3) mGy in Ukraine, with the maximum dose of 55 mGy and 54 mGy, respectively. Breast cancer incidence rates statistically significantly increased with calendar year and attained age, and were higher in urban than in rural residents. Adjusting for time, age and urbanicity effects, we found no evidence of increasing incidence with rayon-average 5-year lagged cumulative breast dose. Owing to ecological study design limitations, a case-control study covering this area with individually reconstructed absorbed breast doses is needed testing for association between low-dose protracted radiation exposure and breast cancer risk after Chernobyl.

Uncertainties in thyroid doses due to iodine-131 ((131)I) intake were evaluated for 2,239 subjects of a case-control study of thyroid cancer following exposure to Chernobyl fallout during childhood and adolescence carried out in contaminated regions of Belarus and Russia. Using new methodological developments that became available recently, a Monte-Carlo simulation procedure was applied to calculate 1,000 alternative vectors of thyroid doses due to (131)I intake for the study population of 2,239 subjects accounting for sources of shared and unshared errors. An overall arithmetic mean of the stochastic thyroid doses in the study was estimated to be 0.43 Gy and median dose – 0.16 Gy. The arithmetic mean and median of deterministic doses estimated previously for 1,615 from 2,239 study subjects were 0.48 Gy and 0.20 Gy, respectively. The geometric standard deviation of individual stochastic doses varied from 1.59 to 3.61 with an arithmetic mean of 1.94 and a geometric mean of 1.89 over all subjects of the study. These multiple sets of thyroid doses will be used to update radiation-related thyroid cancer risks in the study population exposed to (131)I after the Chernobyl accident.

Thyroid radiation doses were estimated for a cohort of 2,965 Belarusian persons who were exposed in utero and during early life to fallout from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident. Prenatal and postnatal doses to the thyroid due to intake of iodine-131 ((131)I), external irradiation from radionuclides deposited on the ground and ingestion of cesium isotopes ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) were calculated for all cohort members. Dose estimation was based on personal interviews with subjects’ mothers which collected data on subjects’ residential history, consumption by mothers during time of pregnancy and breastfeeding, as well as consumption by subjects after birth. Direct instrumental measurement of radioactivity in mothers and the study subjects, if available, were also used for calculation of doses. Intake of (131)I by mother was found to be the predominant pathway for thyroid exposure for the study subjects. The average thyroid dose due to all exposure pathways was estimated to be 137 milli-Gray (mGy) (median dose of 25 mGy, maximal dose of 14.8 Gy), including 130 mGy (median dose of 17 mGy, maximal dose of 14.8 Gy) from (131)I intake, 4.9 mGy (median dose of 3.0 mGy, maximal dose of 102 mGy) due to external irradiation, and 2.5 mGy (median dose of 1.7 mGy, maximal dose of 47 mGy) due to ingestion of (134, 137)Cs. The dose estimates will be used to evaluate the radiation-related risk of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases in this unique cohort.

In April 1986, the Chernobyl nuclear accident resulted in wide-scale contamination of Belarus with significantly elevated levels of radioiodine isotopes, mainly iodine-131 (131I), and long-lived radiocaesium isotopes, mainly caesium-137 (137Cs). Various groups of the population were affected by exposure to ionising radiation, including pregnant women and their foetuses. This paper describes the methods and results related to the establishment of a cohort of 2965 Belarusian people exposed in utero due to Chernobyl fallout. The cohort consists of individuals whose mothers resided in the most radioactively contaminated areas in Belarus at the time of the accident. Prenatal and postnatal doses to the thyroid due to intake of 131I, external irradiation and ingestion of radiocaesium isotopes were estimated for all cohort members. Ongoing research on this unique cohort will provide important information on adverse health effects following prenatal and postnatal exposure to radioiodine and radiocaesium isotopes, for which available epidemiological data are scant.

In this study, we expanded on a previously published population-based case-control study on subjects exposed to iodine-131 (131I) from Chernobyl fallout at age &le, 18 years using improved individual 131I absorbed thyroid doses. We further studied the impact of iodine deficiency and other selected host risk factors on 131I-related thyroid cancer risk after childhood exposure. We included 298 thyroid cancer cases and 1934 matched controls from the most contaminated regions of Belarus and the Russian Federation. We performed statistical analysis using conditional logistic regression models. We found a statistically significant linear quadratic dose-effect association between thyroid cancer and 131I thyroid dose in the range up to 5 grays (Gy). Self-reported personal history of benign nodules, any thyroid disease except thyroid cancer, family history of thyroid cancer, increased body mass index, and deficient stable iodine status at the time of the accident were statistically significant risk factors (p &lt, 0.05 for each factor) for thyroid cancer after adjustment for thyroid 131I dose effect. Subjects who received stable iodine supplementation in the years after the accident had a significantly lower 131I-related risk of thyroid cancer. Our findings are important for thyroid cancer prevention, and for further improvement of medical surveillance in the affected populations.

In this study, we expanded on a previously published population-based case-control study on subjects exposed to iodine-131 (131I) from Chernobyl fallout at age ≤18 years using improved individual 131I absorbed thyroid doses. We further studied the impact of iodine deficiency and other selected host risk factors on 131I-related thyroid cancer risk after childhood exposure. We included 298 thyroid cancer cases and 1934 matched controls from the most contaminated regions of Belarus and the Russian Federation. We performed statistical analysis using conditional logistic regression models. We found a statistically significant linear quadratic dose-effect association between thyroid cancer and 131I thyroid dose in the range up to 5 grays (Gy). Self-reported personal history of benign nodules, any thyroid disease except thyroid cancer, family history of thyroid cancer, increased body mass index, and deficient stable iodine status at the time of the accident were statistically significant risk factors (p < 0.05 for each factor) for thyroid cancer after adjustment for thyroid 131I dose effect. Subjects who received stable iodine supplementation in the years after the accident had a significantly lower 131I-related risk of thyroid cancer. Our findings are important for thyroid cancer prevention, and for further improvement of medical surveillance in the affected populations.

On 26 April 2016, thirty years will have elapsed since the occurrence of the Chernobyl accident, which has so far been the most severe in the history of the nuclear reactor industry. Numerous epidemiological studies were conducted to evaluate the possible health consequences of the accident. Since the credibility of the association between the radiation exposure and health outcome is highly dependent on the adequacy of the dosimetric quantities used in these studies, this paper makes an effort to overview the methods used to estimate individual doses and the associated uncertainties in the main analytical epidemiological studies (i.e. cohort or case-control) related to the Chernobyl accident. Based on the thorough analysis and comparison with other radiation studies, the authors conclude that individual doses for the Chernobyl analytical epidemiological studies have been calculated with a relatively high degree of reliability and well-characterized uncertainties, and that they compare favorably with many other non-Chernobyl studies. The major strengths of the Chernobyl studies are: (1) they are grounded on a large number of measurements, either performed on humans or made in the environment; and (2) extensive effort has been invested to evaluate the uncertainties associated with the dose estimates. Nevertheless, gaps in the methodology are identified and suggestions for the possible improvement of the current dose estimates are made.

BackgroundWhile an increased risk of thyroid cancer from post-Chernobyl exposure to Iodine-131 (I-131) in children and adolescents has been well-documented, risks of other cancers or leukemia as a result of residence in radioactively contaminated areas remain uncertain.MethodsWe studied non-thyroid cancer incidence in a cohort of about 12,000 individuals from Belarus exposed under age of 18 years to Chernobyl fallout (median age at the time of Chernobyl accident of 7.9 years). During 15 years of follow-up from1997 through 2011, 54 incident cancers excluding thyroid were identified in the study cohort with 142,968 person-years at risk. We performed Standardized Incidence Ratio (SIR) analysis of all solid cancers excluding thyroid (n=42), of leukemia (n=6) and of lymphoma (n=6).ResultsWe found no significant increase in the incidence of non-thyroid solid cancer (SIR=0.83, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.61; 1.11), lymphoma (SIR=0.66, 95% CI: 0.26; 1.33) or leukemia (SIR=1.78, 95% CI: 0.71; 3.61) in the study cohort as compared with the sex-, age- and calendar-time-specific national rates. These findings may in part reflect the relatively young age of study subjects (median attained age of 33.4 years), and long latency for some radiation-related solid cancers.ConclusionsWe found no evidence of statistically significant increases in solid cancer, lymphoma and leukemia incidence 25 years after childhood exposure in the study cohort; however, it is important to continue follow-up non-thyroid cancers in individuals exposed to low-level radiation at radiosensitive ages.

International audience; [No abstract available]

Introduction A retrospective cohort study of employees of one of the world’s largest chrysotile asbestos mine and mills (JSC Uralasbest, Asbest, Russia) is presently being conducted. The primary aim of the study is to more precisely characterise and quantify the exposure-response relationship for total and site-specific cancer risks associated with chrysotile exposure. Methods The study includes workers employed for at least one year during 1975–2010 in the mine, enrichment factories, transportation, laboratory, and the explosives unit. Ascertainment of cohort members through extraction of occupational histories from the enterprises’ archives started in 2012. Results At present, the cohort comprises more than 35 000 workers. A detailed occupational history was collected for each cohort member. Temporal trends in exposure levels were analysed using a database containing 89 290 monthly-averaged gravimetric dust concentrations from stationary sampling points in the enrichment factories (1951–2001) and 1457 in the mine (1964–2001). Parallel gravimetric and fibre (PCOM) concentrations were used to estimate dust to fibre conversion factors. Currently a job-exposure matrix is being developed to translate individuals’ job histories into exposure histories for both dust and fibre concentrations. Sverdlovsk region mortality data of cohort members have been ascertained by linkage with medical death certificates recorded at the Sverdlovsk Regional Civil Acts Registration Office. In addition, a comparison of mortality rates in Asbest city and in Sverdlovsk region (1997–2010) was performed. Further efforts are ongoing to ascertain vital status and migration of cohort members from Sverdlovsk region. A parallel cross-sectional survey aimed at estimating tobacco smoking in current workers and veterans (more than 7000 participants) was conducted. Conclusion The study will continue through 2019. Given the large size of the cohort, the large proportion of female workers and the detailed exposure data, information obtained in this study will expand knowledge of the cancer burden and prevention potential after chrysotile exposure.

To enhance understanding of etiology, we examined international population-based cancer incidence data for lymphoid leukemia, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, Hodgkin lymphoma and myeloid leukemia among children aged 0-19. Based on temporal trends during 1978-2007 in 24 populations, lymphoid leukemia and myeloid leukemia incidence rates generally have not changed greatly and differences in rates for non-Hodgkin and for Hodgkin lymphoma have diminished in some regions. Lymphoid leukemia rates during 2003-2007 in 54 populations varied about 10-fold, with rates highest in US white Hispanics (50.2 per million person-years) and Ecuador (48.3) and lowest in US blacks (20.4), Tunisia (17.7) and Uganda (6.9). Non-Hodgkin lymphoma rates varied 30-fold, with very high rates in sub-Saharan Africa (146.0 in Malawi and 54.3 in Uganda) and low rates (≤ 10) in some Asian populations (China, Japan, India, the Philippines and Thailand) and U.S. Asian-Pacific Islanders, eastern and northern European populations and Puerto Rico. Hodgkin lymphoma rates varied 15-fold, with rates highest in Italy (21.3) and lowest in China (1.7). Myeloid leukemia rates varied only about fivefold, with rates highest in the Philippines and Korea (exceeding 14.0) and lowest in Eastern Europe (5.9 in Serbia and 5.3 in the Czech Republic) and Uganda (2.7). The boy/girl average incidence rate ratios were 2.00 or lower. Age-specific patterns differed among the four hematopoietic malignancies, but were generally consistent within major categories world-wide, except for non-Hodgkin lymphoma. A systematic world-wide approach comparing postulated etiologic factors in low- versus high-risk populations may help clarify the etiology of these childhood malignancies.

Direct quantitative assessment of health risks following exposure to ionizing radiation is based on findings from epidemiological studies. Populations affected by nuclear bomb testing are among those that allow such assessment. The population living around the former Soviet Union’s Semipalatinsk nuclear test site is one of the largest human cohorts exposed to radiation from nuclear weapons tests. Following research that started in the 1960s, a registry that contains information on more than 300,000 individuals residing in the areas neighboring to the test site was established. Four nuclear weapons tests, conducted from 1949 to 1956, resulted in non-negligible radiation exposures to the public, corresponding up to approximately 300 mGy external dose. The registry contains relevant information about those who lived at the time of the testing as well as about their offspring, including biological material. An international group of scientists worked together within the research project SEMI-NUC funded by the European Union, and concluded that the registry provides a novel, mostly unexplored, and valuable resource for the assessment of the population risks associated with environmental radiation exposure. Suggestions for future studies and pathways on how to use the best dose assessment strategies have also been described in the project. Moreover, the registry could be used for research on other relevant public health topics.

Author(s): Zablotska, Lydia B; Nadyrov, Eldar A; Rozhko, Alexander V; Gong, Zhihong; Polyanskaya, Olga N; McConnell, Robert J; O'Kane, Patrick; Brenner, Alina V; Little, Mark P; Ostroumova, Evgenia; Bouville, Andre; Drozdovitch, Vladimir; Minenko, Viktor; Demidchik, Yuri; Nerovnya, Alexander; Yauseyenka, Vassilina; Savasteeva, Irina; Nikonovich, Sergey; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Hatch, Maureen | Abstract: BackgroundRecent studies of children and adolescents who were exposed to radioactive iodine-131 (I-131) after the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident in Ukraine exhibited a significant dose-related increase in the risk of thyroid cancer, but the association of radiation doses with tumor histologic and morphologic features is not clear.MethodsA cohort of 11,664 individuals in Belarus who were aged ≤18 years at the time of the accident underwent 3 cycles of thyroid screening during 1997 to 2008. I-131 thyroid doses were estimated from individual thyroid activity measurements taken within 2 months after the accident and from dosimetric questionnaire data. Demographic, clinical, and tumor pathologic characteristics of the patients with thyroid cancer were analyzed using 1-way analysis of variance, chi-square tests or Fisher exact tests, and logistic regression.ResultsIn total, 158 thyroid cancers were identified as a result of screening. The majority of patients had T1a and T1b tumors (93.7%), with many positive regional lymph nodes (N1; 60.6%) but few distant metastases (M1; l1%). Higher I-131 doses were associated with higher frequency of solid and diffuse sclerosing variants of thyroid cancer (P l .01) and histologic features of cancer aggressiveness, such as lymphatic vessel invasion, intrathyroidal infiltration, and multifocality (all P l .03). Latency was not correlated with radiation dose. Fifty-two patients with self-reported thyroid cancers which were diagnosed before 1997 were younger at the time of the accident and had a higher percentage of solid variant cancers compared with patients who had screening-detected thyroid cancers (all P l .0001).ConclusionsI-131 thyroid radiation doses were associated with a significantly greater frequency of solid and diffuse sclerosing variants of thyroid cancer and various features of tumor aggressiveness.

IntroductionA retrospective cohort study of 35 840 employees is currently being conducted in a chrysotile mine and its processing facilities in Asbest, the Russian Federation. The primary aim is to quantify exposure-response relationships for cancers potentially associated with chrysotile exposure. Some of those cancers are also tobacco-related; however individual-level information on tobacco use is not available for the full cohort. To address this gap, a cross-sectional study of current and retired workers from JSC Uralasbest was conducted to assess the relationship between smoking status and workers’ exposure to chrysotile.MethodsSelf-administered questionnaires were completed by current workers during meetings organized by occupational safety specialists. Retired workers filled in questionnaires during Veterans’ meetings or were interviewed via telephone or at home. Estimates of exposure to chrysotile were available for 999 current and 3795 retired workers who were linked to the cohort study.ResultsAmong the 7451 respondents (n=3698 men and n=3753 women), 66% of men and 9% of women were ever-smokers. Smoking prevalence was stable across birth decades in men, but increased from ConclusionWhile no adjustments for smoking among men appear necessary in the future analyses, including smoking propensity by birth cohort for women may be useful.

Background: Thyroid dysfunction after exposure to low or moderate doses of radioactive iodine-131 (131I) at a young age is a public health concern. However, quantitative data are sparse concerning 131I-related risk of these common diseases. Objective: Our goal was to assess the prevalence of thyroid dysfunction in association with 131I exposure during childhood (≤ 18 years) due to fallout from the Chernobyl accident. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of hypothyroidism, hyperthyroidism, autoimmune thyroiditis (AIT), serum concentrations of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), and autoantibodies to thyroperoxidase (ATPO) in relation to measurement-based 131I dose estimates in a Belarusian cohort of 10,827 individuals screened for various thyroid diseases. Results: Mean age at exposure (± SD) was 8.2 ± 5.0 years. Mean (median) estimated 131I thyroid dose was 0.54 (0.23) Gy (range, 0.001–26.6 Gy). We found significant positive associations of 131I dose with hypothyroidism (mainly subclinical and antibody-negative) and serum TSH concentration. The excess odds ratio per 1 Gy for hypothyroidism was 0.34 (95% CI: 0.15, 0.62) and varied significantly by age at exposure and at examination, presence of goiter, and urban/rural residency. We found no evidence of positive associations with antibody-positive hypothyroidism, hyperthyroidism, AIT, or elevated ATPO. Conclusions: The association between 131I dose and hypothyroidism in the Belarusian cohort is consistent with that previously reported for a Ukrainian cohort and strengthens evidence of the effect of environmental 131I exposure during childhood on hypothyroidism, but not other thyroid outcomes.

Relatively few data are available on the prevalence of hyperthyroidism (TSH concentrations of0.3 mIU/liter, with normal or elevated concentrations of free T4) in individuals exposed to radioiodines at low levels. The accident at the Chornobyl (Chernobyl) nuclear plant in Ukraine on April 26, 1986 exposed large numbers of residents to radioactive fallout, principally to iodine-131 ((131)I) (mean and median doses = 0.6 Gy and 0.2 Gy). We investigated the relationship between (131)I and prevalent hyperthyroidism among 11,853 individuals exposed as children or adolescents in Ukraine who underwent an in-depth, standardized thyroid gland screening examination 12-14 years later. Radioactivity measurements taken shortly after the accident were available for all subjects and were used to estimate individual thyroid doses. We identified 76 cases of hyperthyroidism (11 overt, 65 subclinical). Using logistic regression, we tested a variety of continuous risk models and conducted categorical analyses for all subjects combined and for females (53 cases, n = 5,767) and males (23 cases, n = 6,086) separately but found no convincing evidence of a dose-response relationship between (131)I and hyperthyroidism. There was some suggestion of elevated risk among females in an analysis based on a dichotomous dose model with a threshold of 0.5 Gy chosen empirically (OR = 1.86, P = 0.06), but the statistical significance level was reduced (P = 0.13) in a formal analysis with an estimated threshold. In summary, after a thorough exploration of the data, we found no statistically significant dose-response relationship between individual (131)I thyroid doses and prevalent hyperthyroidism.

While thyroid cancer risks from exposure to ionizing radiation early in life are well characterized quantitatively, the association of radiation with nonmalignant, functional thyroid disorders has been less studied. Here, we report on a risk analysis study of hypothyroidism with radiation dose to the thyroid gland and the hypothalamic-pituitary axis among survivors of childhood cancer. Utilizing data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study, a cohort of 14,364 five-year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed at 26 hospitals in the U.S. and Canada between 1970 and 1986 and followed through 2009, the occurrence of hypothyroidism was ascertained among 12,015 survivors through serial questionnaires. Radiation doses to the thyroid gland and pituitary gland were estimated from radiotherapy records. Binary outcome regression was used to estimate prevalence odds ratios for hypothyroidism at five years from diagnosis of childhood cancer and Poisson regression to model incidence rate ratios (RR) after the first five years. A total of 1,193 cases of hypothyroidism were observed, 777 (65%) of which occurred five or more years after cancer diagnosis. The cumulative proportion affected with hypothyroidism (prevalence at five years after cancer diagnosis plus incidence through 30 years after cancer diagnosis) was highest among five-year survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma (32.3%; 95% CI: 29.5-34.9) and cancers of the central nervous system (17.7%; 95% CI: 15.2-20.4). The incidence rate was significantly associated with radiation dose to the thyroid and pituitary. The joint association of hypothyroidism with thyroid and pituitary dose was sub-additive for pituitary doses greater than 16 Gy. In particular, a very strong thyroid radiation dose dependence at low-to-moderate pituitary/hypothalamic doses was diminished at high pituitary doses. Radiation-related risks were higher in males than females and inversely associated with age at exposure and time since exposure but remained elevated more than 25 years after exposure. Our findings indicated that hypothyroidism was significantly associated with treatment with bleomycin (RR = 3.4; 95% CI: 1.6-7.3) and the alkylating agents cyclohexyl-chloroethyl-nitrosourea (CCNU) (RR = 3.0; 95% CI: 1.5-5.3) and cyclophosphamide (RR = 1.3; 95% CI: 1.0-1.8), with a significant dose response for CCNU ( P0.01). The risk of hypothyroidism among childhood cancer survivors treated with radiation depends both on direct, dose-dependent radiation-induced damage to the thyroid gland and on dose-dependent indirect effects secondary to irradiation of the hypothalamic-pituitary axis. The dose-response relationship for each site depends on dose to the other. Radiation-related risk persists for more than 25 years after treatment. Treatment with certain chemotherapy agents may increase the risk of hypothyroidism.

Beginning in 1950, people living on the banks of the Techa River received chronic low-dose-rate internal and external radiation exposures as a result of releases from the Mayak nuclear weapons plutonium production facility in the Southern Urals region of the Russian Federation. The Techa River cohort includes about 30,000 people who resided in riverside villages sometime between 1950 and 1960. Cumulative red bone marrow doses range up to 2 Gy with a mean of 0.3 Gy and a median of 0.2 Gy. Between 1953 and 2005, 93 first primary cases of leukemia, including 23 cases of chronic lymphatic leukemia (CLL), were ascertained among the cohort members. A significant linear dose-response relationship was seen for leukemias other than CLL (P < 0.001), but not for CLL. The estimated excess relative risk per Gy is 4.9 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.6; 14.3) for leukemias other than CLL and less than 0 (95% upper bound 1.4) for CLL.

The 2001 World Health Organization classification scheme considers B-cell chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) and small lymphocytic lymphoma (SLL) in an aggregate category (CLL/SLL) because of shared clinicopathological features. We have estimated age-adjusted incidence rates (IRs) of CLL and SLL in the population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program in the United States to analyse patterns of CLL and SLL separately and jointly. Age-standardized to the 2000 US population, overall IRs were 3.83 per 100 000 person-years for CLL (n = 15 676) and 1.31 for SLL (n = 5382) during 1993-2004. Incidence of the combined entity, CLL/SLL, was 90% higher among males compared to females, and the male:female IR ratio was significantly higher for CLL (1.98) than for SLL (1.67). CLL/SLL IRs were 25% and 77% lower among Blacks and Asian/Pacific Islanders, respectively, compared to Whites. A significant reporting delay was evident for CLL but not for SLL, so that CLL/SLL temporal trends must be interpreted cautiously. CLL and SLL IRs increased exponentially with age among all gender/race groups, with CLL IRs increasing more steeply with advancing age than SLL. Avenues of future research include assessment of delayed- and under-reporting to cancer registries and exploration of race, gender, and age effects in epidemiological studies.

Deterministic thyroid radiation doses due to iodine-131 ((131)I) intake were reconstructed in a previous article for 11,732 participants of the Belarusian-American cohort study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases in individuals exposed during childhood or adolescence to fallout from the Chernobyl accident. The current article describes an assessment of uncertainties in reconstructed thyroid doses that accounts for the shared and unshared errors. Using a Monte Carlo simulation procedure, 1,000 sets of cohort thyroid doses due to (131)I intake were calculated. The arithmetic mean of the stochastic thyroid doses for the entire cohort was 0.68 Gy. For two-thirds of the cohort the arithmetic mean of individual stochastic thyroid doses was less than 0.5 Gy. The geometric standard deviation of stochastic doses varied among cohort members from 1.33 to 5.12 with an arithmetic mean of 1.76 and a geometric mean of 1.73. The uncertainties in thyroid dose were driven by the unshared errors associated with the estimates of values of thyroid mass and of the (131)I activity in the thyroid of the subject; the contribution of shared errors to the overall uncertainty was small. These multiple sets of cohort thyroid doses will be used to evaluate the radiation risks of thyroid cancer and noncancer thyroid diseases, taking into account the structure of the errors in the dose estimates.

To enhance understanding of etiology, we examined international population-based cancer incidence data for lymphoid leukemia, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, Hodgkin lymphoma and myeloid leukemia among children aged 0-19. Based on temporal trends during 1978-2007 in 24 populations, lymphoid leukemia and myeloid leukemia incidence rates generally have not changed greatly and differences in rates for non-Hodgkin and for Hodgkin lymphoma have diminished in some regions. Lymphoid leukemia rates during 2003-2007 in 54 populations varied about 10-fold, with rates highest in US white Hispanics (50.2 per million person-years) and Ecuador (48.3) and lowest in US blacks (20.4), Tunisia (17.7) and Uganda (6.9). Non-Hodgkin lymphoma rates varied 30-fold, with very high rates in sub-Saharan Africa (146.0 in Malawi and 54.3 in Uganda) and low rates (≤ 10) in some Asian populations (China, Japan, India, the Philippines and Thailand) and U.S. Asian-Pacific Islanders, eastern and northern European populations and Puerto Rico. Hodgkin lymphoma rates varied 15-fold, with rates highest in Italy (21.3) and lowest in China (1.7). Myeloid leukemia rates varied only about fivefold, with rates highest in the Philippines and Korea (exceeding 14.0) and lowest in Eastern Europe (5.9 in Serbia and 5.3 in the Czech Republic) and Uganda (2.7). The boy/girl average incidence rate ratios were 2.00 or lower. Age-specific patterns differed among the four hematopoietic malignancies, but were generally consistent within major categories world-wide, except for non-Hodgkin lymphoma. A systematic world-wide approach comparing postulated etiologic factors in low- versus high-risk populations may help clarify the etiology of these childhood malignancies.

The Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in Ukraine in 1986 led to widespread radioactive releases into the environment - primarily of radioiodines and cesium - heavily affecting the northern portions of the country, with settlement-averaged thyroid doses estimated to range from 10 mGy to more than 10 Gy. The increased risk of thyroid cancer among exposed children and adolescents is well established but the impact of radioactive contamination on the risk of other types of cancer is much less certain. To provide data on a public health issue of major importance, we have analyzed the incidence of non-thyroid cancers during the post-Chernobyl period in a well-defined cohort of 13,203 individuals who were

Recent studies of children and adolescents who were exposed to radioactive iodine-131 (I-131) after the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident in Ukraine exhibited a significant dose-related increase in the risk of thyroid cancer, but the association of radiation doses with tumor histologic and morphologic features is not clear.A cohort of 11,664 individuals in Belarus who were aged ≤18 years at the time of the accident underwent 3 cycles of thyroid screening during 1997 to 2008. I-131 thyroid doses were estimated from individual thyroid activity measurements taken within 2 months after the accident and from dosimetric questionnaire data. Demographic, clinical, and tumor pathologic characteristics of the patients with thyroid cancer were analyzed using 1-way analysis of variance, chi-square tests or Fisher exact tests, and logistic regression.In total, 158 thyroid cancers were identified as a result of screening. The majority of patients had T1a and T1b tumors (93.7%), with many positive regional lymph nodes (N1; 60.6%) but few distant metastases (M1;1%). Higher I-131 doses were associated with higher frequency of solid and diffuse sclerosing variants of thyroid cancer (P .01) and histologic features of cancer aggressiveness, such as lymphatic vessel invasion, intrathyroidal infiltration, and multifocality (all P .03). Latency was not correlated with radiation dose. Fifty-two patients with self-reported thyroid cancers which were diagnosed before 1997 were younger at the time of the accident and had a higher percentage of solid variant cancers compared with patients who had screening-detected thyroid cancers (all P .0001).I-131 thyroid radiation doses were associated with a significantly greater frequency of solid and diffuse sclerosing variants of thyroid cancer and various features of tumor aggressiveness.

Prenatal exposure to external radiation has been linked to growth retardation among atomic bomb survivors in adolescence. It is unclear from previous studies whether in utero exposure to internal radiation such as iodine-131 (I-131), which concentrates in the thyroid gland, has an effect on physical growth. We examined the associations between estimated thyroid gland dose from prenatal exposure to I-131 and self-reported height and weight in a cohort of 2,460 individuals exposed to radioactive fallout from the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident [mean I-131 dose = 72 (mGy)] and screened for thyroid diseases in adolescence. Using multivariable linear regression models, we estimated the mean differences in height, weight and body mass index (BMI) per unit increase in dose (100 mGy) in models adjusted for gender, age at examination, type of residence (rural/urban) and presence of thyroid disease diagnosed at screening. All of the adjustment factors as well as the trimester of exposure were evaluated as potential modifiers of the dose response. Overall, no significant dose response was found for height (P = 0.29), weight (P = 0.14) or BMI (P = 0.16). We found significant modification of the dose response for weight and BMI by presence/absence of thyroid disease (P = 0.02 and P = 0.03, respectively), but not for other factors. In individuals without thyroid disease (n = 1,856), there was a weak, significant association between I-131 thyroid dose and higher weight (210 g per 100 mGy, P = 0.02) or BMI (70 g/m2 per 100 mGy, P = 0.02) that depended on individuals (n = 52) exposed to ≥500 mGy. In individuals with thyroid disease (n = 579, 67.4% with simple diffuse goiter) no significant association with I-131 for weight (P = 0.14) or BMI (P = 0.14) was found. These results do not support the hypothesis that in utero exposure to I-131 at levels experienced by a majority of study subjects may be associated with meaningful differences in adolescent anthropometry. However, additional studies are needed to clarify whether in utero exposure to I-131 at levels > = 500 mGy may be associated with increases in weight/BMI and to evaluate the confounding or modifying role of thyroid disease, past iodine deficiency, maternal and prenatal/postnatal factors.

Sun’s comments about the relationship between iodine-131 (131I), hypothyroidism, and simple diffuse goiter suggest a misunderstanding of our study findings. We reported a significantly higher—rather than lower—radiation-associated risk of hypothyroidism among study participants without goiter than in the participants with goiter (Ostroumova et al. 2013). Specifically, the excess odds ratio (EOR) per Gray of 131I thyroid dose was 0.50 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.24, 0.90] in participants without goiter and 0.04 (95% CI: –0.09, 0.32) in those with goiter. We also reported a lack of significant variation of EOR per Gray for hypothyroidism by levels of urinary iodine (p = 0.23), although in the discussion we noted that iodine concentration in spot urine samples, unlike presence of diffuse goiter, reflects current levels of iodine intake and is subject to high within-individual variability. The territories of Belarus were known to be iodine deficient before the Chernobyl accident; in the Soviet Union there was a system of iodine prophylaxis that was discontinued by the mid-1980s (Kholodova and Fedorova 1992). In 1995–1998, five of the six Belarus regions were classified as having moderate iodine deficiency, whereas the Gomel region, most heavily contaminated with 131I, was classified as having mild iodine deficiency partly due to some iodine supplementation in this area after the Chernobyl accident (Arinchin et al. 2000). High prevalence of diffuse goiter detected by ultrasound in children and adolescents in the relatively uncontaminated Brest region (27.8%) and low prevalence in the heavily contaminated Gomel region (5.6%) (Arinchin et al. 2000) support the idea that these differences are attributed to different intake of dietary iodine and not to 131I exposure. Moreover, there is little evidence of a dose–response association between thyroid exposure and simple diffuse goiter in other radiation-exposed cohorts (Ron and Brenner 2010). As we described in the “Materials and Methods” of our article (Ostroumova et al. 2013), availability of individual direct measurements of thyroid radioactivity served as a key criterion for inclusion into the study. All study participants had direct measurements of thyroid radioactivity performed within 2 months after the accident. In the methods for dosimetry, we cited the article by Drozdovitch et al. (2013), in which dose reconstruction methods were described in detail. We also noted that intake of 131I on average accounted for about 95% of the estimated thyroid dose, whereas the contribution of other short-lived radioiodines, external exposures, and internal exposure from cesium-137 and cesium-134 was minor (Bouville et al. 2007). We appreciate Sun’s interest in our study and hope our response is useful.

The 1986 accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant remains the most serious nuclear accident in history, and excess thyroid cancers, particularly among those exposed to releases of iodine-131 remain the best-documented sequelae. Failure to take dose-measurement error into account can lead to bias in assessments of dose-response slope. Although risks in the Ukrainian-US thyroid screening study have been previously evaluated, errors in dose assessments have not been addressed hitherto. Dose-response patterns were examined in a thyroid screening prevalence cohort of 13,127 persons aged

SummaryObjective Serum thyroglobulin (Tg) has been associated with a number of thyroid disorders and has been proposed as an indicator of iodine deficiency in a population. However, few studies have addressed the epidemiology of Tg in a population-based setting or in the context of exposure to radioactive iodine-131 (I-131). Our objective was to evaluate baseline levels of Tg in relation to sociodemographic characteristics, iodine status and thyroid function for individuals exposed to I-131. Design A population-based cohort assembled in Belarus following the Chornobyl accident provided demographic factors, clinical data and physiological measurements. Participants Our analytical sample included 10 344 subjects of whom 7890 had no thyroid disease and 2454 had evidence of structural or functional thyroid abnormality. Measurements Standardized assays were used to measure serum Tg, urinary iodine, TSH and antibodies to Tg and thyroid peroxidase. Ultrasound was used to assess the presence of nodules and estimate thyroid volume. Results In the fully adjusted model, percent change in Tg was significantly increased among females, smokers and subjects of older age and Tg increased with decreasing urinary iodine concentration, increasing serum TSH and increasing thyroid volume (P-values for trend

In the past 30 y, the numbers and types of fluoroscopically-guided (FG) procedures have increased dramatically. The objective of the present study is to provide estimated radiation doses to physician specialists, other than cardiologists, who perform FG procedures. The authors searched Medline to identify English-language journal articles reporting radiation exposures to these physicians. They then identified several primarily therapeutic FG procedures that met specific criteria: well-defined procedures for which there were at least five published reports of estimated radiation doses to the operator, procedures performed frequently in current medical practice, and inclusion of physicians from multiple medical specialties. These procedures were percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL), vertebroplasty, orthopedic extremity nailing for treatment of fractures, biliary tract procedures, transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt creation (TIPS), head/neck endovascular therapeutic procedures, and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Radiation doses and other associated data were abstracted, and effective dose to operators was estimated. Operators received estimated doses per patient procedure equivalent to doses received by interventional cardiologists. The estimated effective dose per case ranged from 1.7-56 μSv for PCNL, 0.1-101 μSv for vertebroplasty, 2.5-88 μSv for orthopedic extremity nailing, 2.0-46 μSv for biliary tract procedures, 2.5-74 μSv for TIPS, 1.8-53 μSv for head/neck endovascular therapeutic procedures, and 0.2-49 μSv for ERCP. Overall, mean operator radiation dose per case measured over personal protective devices at different anatomic sites on the head and body ranged from 19-800 (median = 113) μSv at eye level, 6-1,180 (median = 75) μSv at the neck, and 2-1,600 (median = 302) μSv at the trunk. Operators' hands often received greater doses than the eyes, neck, or trunk. Large variations in operator doses suggest that optimizing procedure protocols and proper use of protective devices and shields might reduce occupational radiation dose substantially.

Background and Aims: - Iodine-131 (I-131), the major component of Chernobyl fallout and an isotope readily absorbed by the thyroid gland, has been clearly linked to a subsequent increase in thyroid...

Studies of Mayak workers and people who lived along the Techa River have demonstrated significant associations between low-dose-rate radiation exposure and increased solid cancer risk. It is of interest to use the long-term follow-up data from these cohorts to describe radiation effects for specific types of cancer; however, statistical variability in the site-specific risk estimates is large. The goal of this work is to describe this variability and provide Bayesian adjusted risk estimates. We assume that the site-specific estimates can be viewed as a sample from some underlying distribution and use Bayesian methods to produce adjusted excess relative risk per gray estimates in the Mayak and Techa River cohorts. The impact of the adjustment is compared to that seen in similar analyses in the atomic bomb survivors. Site-specific risk estimates in the Mayak and Techa River cohorts have large uncertainties. Unadjusted estimates vary from implausibly large decreases to large increases, with a range that greatly exceeds that found in the A-bomb survivors. The Bayesian adjustment markedly reduced the range of the site-specific estimates for the Techa River and Mayak studies. The extreme variability in the site-specific risk estimates is largely a consequence of the small number of excess cases. The adjusted estimates provide a useful perspective on variation in the actual risks. However, additional work on interpretation of the adjusted estimates, extension of the methods used in describing effect modification, and making more use of prior knowledge is needed to make these methods useful.

In the present paper, analysis of solid cancer mortality and incidence risk after radiation exposure in the Techa River Cohort in the Southern Urals region of Russia is described. Residents along the Techa River received protracted exposure to ionizing radiation in the 1950s due to the releases of radioactive materials from the Mayak Production Association. The current follow-up through December 2003 includes individuals exposed on the Techa riverside within the Chelyabinsk and Kurgan oblasts using mortality data, and within the Chelyabinsk oblast using incidence data. The analysis was performed by means of the biologically based two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model and conventional excess relative risk models. For the mortality and incidence cohorts, central estimates of the excess relative risk per dose of 0.85 Gy(-1) (95% CI 0.36; 1.38) and 0.91 Gy(-1) (95% CI 0.35; 1.52) were found, respectively. For both the mortality and incidence cohorts, the best description of the radiation risk was achieved with the same TSCE model including a lifelong radiation effect on the promotion rate of initiated cells. An increase in the excess risk with attained age was observed, whereas no significant change of risk with age at exposure was seen. Direct comparison of the mortality and incidence cohorts showed that the excess relative risk estimates agreed very well in both cohorts, as did the excess absolute risk and the hazard after correction for the different background rates.

Background: Like stable iodine, radioiodines concentrate in the thyroid gland, increasing thyroid cancer risk in exposed children. Data on exposure to the embryonic/fetal thyroid are rare, raising questions about use of iodine 131 (I-131) in pregnant women. We present here estimated risks of thyroid disease from exposure in utero to I-131 fallout from the Chernobyl nuclear accident. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional thyroid screening study (palpation, ultrasound, thyroid hormones, and, if indicated, fine needle aspiration) from 2003 to 2006. Participants were 2582 mother-child pairs from Ukraine in which the mother had been pregnant at the time of the accident on April 26, 1986, or 2 months after the time during which I-131 fallout was still present (1494 from contaminated areas, 1088 in the comparison group). Individual cumulative in utero thyroid dose estimates were derived from estimated I-131 activity in the mother’s thyroid (mean 72 mGy; range 0–3230 mGy). Results: There were seven cases of thyroid carcinoma and one case of Hurthle cell neoplasm identified as a result of the screening. Whereas the estimated excess odds ratio per gray for thyroid carcinoma was elevated (excess odds ratio per gray 11.66), it was not statistically significant (P = 0.12). No radiation risks were identified for other thyroid diseases. Conclusion: Our results suggest that in utero exposure to radioiodines may have increased the risk of thyroid carcinoma approximately 20 yr after the Chernobyl accident, supporting a conservative approach to medical uses of I-131 during pregnancy.

In this study the solid cancer mortality data in the Techa River Cohort in the Southern Urals region of Russia was analyzed. The cohort received protracted exposure in the 1950s due to the releases of radioactive materials from the Mayak plutonium complex. The Extended Techa River Cohort includes 29,849 people who resided along the Techa River between 1950 and 1960 and were followed from January 1, 1950 through December 31, 1999. The analysis was done within the framework of the biologically based two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model. It was found that about 2.6% of the 1854 solid cancer deaths (excluding 18 bone cancer cases) could be related to radiation exposure. At age 63, which is the mean age for solid cancer deaths, the excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) were found to be 0.76 Gy(-1) (95% CI 0.23; 1.29) and 33.0 (10(4) PY Gy)(-1) (95% CI 9.8; 52.6), respectively. These risk estimates are consistent with earlier excess relative risk analyses for the same cohort. The change in the ERR with age was investigated in detail, and an increase in risk with attained age was observed. Furthermore, the data were tested for possible signs of genomic instability, and it was found that the data could be described equally well by a model incorporating effects of genomic instability. Results from the TSCE models indicated that radiation received at older ages might have stronger biological effects than exposure at younger ages.