286 results on '"Eyring, V."'
Search Results
2. Machine-learned cloud classes from satellite data for process-oriented climate model evaluation
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Kaps, A., Lauer, A., Camps-Valls, G., Gentine, P., Gómez-Chova, L., and Eyring, V.
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Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - Abstract
Clouds play a key role in regulating climate change but are difficult to simulate within Earth system models (ESMs). Improving the representation of clouds is one of the key tasks towards more robust climate change projections. This study introduces a new machine-learning based framework relying on satellite observations to improve understanding of the representation of clouds and their relevant processes in climate models. The proposed method is capable of assigning distributions of established cloud types to coarse data. It facilitates a more objective evaluation of clouds in ESMs and improves the consistency of cloud process analysis. The method is built on satellite data from the MODIS instrument labelled by deep neural networks with cloud types defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), using cloud type labels from CloudSat as ground truth. The method is applicable to datasets with information about physical cloud variables comparable to MODIS satellite data and at sufficiently high temporal resolution. We apply the method to alternative satellite data from the Cloud\_cci project (ESA Climate Change Initiative), coarse-grained to typical resolutions of climate models. The resulting cloud type distributions are physically consistent and the horizontal resolutions typical of ESMs are sufficient to apply our method. We recommend outputting crucial variables required by our method for future ESM data evaluation. This will enable the use of labelled satellite data for a more systematic evaluation of clouds in climate models., Comment: Main Paper 16 pages, 11 figures. Supporting material 7 Pages, 8 figures. This work has been submitted to the IEEE for possible publication. Copyright may be transferred without notice, after which this version may no longer be accessible
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- 2022
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3. Taking climate model evaluation to the next level
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Eyring, V, Cox, PM, Flato, GM, Gleckler, PJ, Abramowitz, G, Caldwell, P, Collins, WD, Gier, BK, Hall, AD, Hoffman, FM, Hurtt, GC, Jahn, A, Jones, CD, Klein, SA, Krasting, JP, Kwiatkowski, L, Lorenz, R, Maloney, E, Meehl, GA, Pendergrass, AG, Pincus, R, Ruane, AC, Russell, JL, Sanderson, BM, Santer, BD, Sherwood, SC, Simpson, IR, Stouffer, RJ, and Williamson, MS
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Atmospheric Sciences ,Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience ,Environmental Science and Management - Abstract
Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.
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- 2019
4. AerChemMIP: Quantifying the effects of chemistry and aerosols in CMIP6
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Collins, JW, Lamarque, JF, Schulz, M, Boucher, O, Eyring, V, Hegglin, IM, Maycock, A, Myhre, G, Prather, M, Shindell, D, and Smith, JS
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Earth Sciences - Abstract
The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) is endorsed by the Coupled-Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) and is designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. These are specifically near-term climate forcers (NTCFs: methane, tropospheric ozone and aerosols, and their precursors), nitrous oxide and ozone-depleting halocarbons. The aim of AerChemMIP is to answer four scientific questions. 1. How have anthropogenic emissions contributed to global radiative forcing and affected regional climate over the historical period? 2. How might future policies (on climate, air quality and land use) affect the abundances of NTCFs and their climate impacts? 3.How do uncertainties in historical NTCF emissions affect radiative forcing estimates? 4. How important are climate feedbacks to natural NTCF emissions, atmospheric composition, and radiative effects? These questions will be addressed through targeted simulations with CMIP6 climate models that include an interactive representation of tropospheric aerosols and atmospheric chemistry. These simulations build on the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK) experiments, the CMIP6 historical simulations, and future projections performed elsewhere in CMIP6, allowing the contributions from aerosols and/or chemistry to be quantified. Specific diagnostics are requested as part of the CMIP6 data request to highlight the chemical composition of the atmosphere, to evaluate the performance of the models, and to understand differences in behaviour between them.
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- 2017
5. Preindustrial to present-day changes in tropospheric hydroxyl radical and methane lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)
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Naik, V, Voulgarakis, A, Fiore, AM, Horowitz, LW, Lamarque, JF, Lin, M, Prather, MJ, Young, PJ, Bergmann, D, Cameron-Smith, PJ, Cionni, I, Collins, WJ, Dalsøren, SB, Doherty, R, Eyring, V, Faluvegi, G, Folberth, GA, Josse, B, Lee, YH, MacKenzie, IA, Nagashima, T, Van Noije, TPC, Plummer, DA, Righi, M, Rumbold, ST, Skeie, R, Shindell, DT, Stevenson, DS, Strode, S, Sudo, K, Szopa, S, and Zeng, G
- Abstract
We have analysed time-slice simulations from 17 global models, participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), to explore changes in present-day (2000) hydroxyl radical (OH) concentration and methane (CH4) lifetime relative to preindustrial times (1850) and to 1980. A comparison of modeled and observation-derived methane and methyl chloroform lifetimes suggests that the present-day global multi-model mean OH concentration is overestimated by 5 to 10% but is within the range of uncertainties. The models consistently simulate higher OH concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with the Southern Hemisphere (SH) for the present-day (2000; inter-hemispheric ratios of 1.13 to 1.42), in contrast to observation-based approaches which generally indicate higher OH in the SH although uncertainties are large. Evaluation of simulated carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations, the primary sink for OH, against ground-based and satellite observations suggests low biases in the NH that may contribute to the high north-south OH asymmetry in the models. The models vary widely in their regional distribution of present-day OH concentrations (up to 34%). Despite large regional changes, the multi-model global mean (mass-weighted) OH concentration changes little over the past 150 yr, due to concurrent increases in factors that enhance OH (humidity, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, and UV radiation due to decreases in stratospheric ozone), compensated by increases in OH sinks (methane abundance, carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic carbon (NMVOC) emissions). The large inter-model diversity in the sign and magnitude of preindustrial to present-day OH changes (ranging from a decrease of 12.7% to an increase of 14.6%) indicate that uncertainty remains in our understanding of the long-term trends in OH and methane lifetime. We show that this diversity is largely explained by the different ratio of the change in global mean tropospheric CO and NOx burdens (ΔCO/ΔNOx, approximately represents changes in OH sinks versus changes in OH sources) in the models, pointing to a need for better constraints on natural precursor emissions and on the chemical mechanisms in the current generation of chemistry-climate models. For the 1980 to 2000 period, we find that climate warming and a slight increase in mean OH (3.5 ± 2.2%) leads to a 4.3 ± 1.9% decrease in the methane lifetime. Analysing sensitivity simulations performed by 10 models, we find that preindustrial to present-day climate change decreased the methane lifetime by about four months, representing a negative feedback on the climate system. Further, we analysed attribution experiments performed by a subset of models relative to 2000 conditions with only one precursor at a time set to 1860 levels. We find that global mean OH increased by 46.4 ± 12.2% in response to preindustrial to present-day anthropogenic NOx emission increases, and decreased by 17.3 ± 2.3%, 7.6 ± 1.5%, and 3.1 ± 3.0% due to methane burden, and anthropogenic CO, and NMVOC emissions increases, respectively. © Author(s) 2013.
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- 2013
6. Analysis of present day and future OH and methane lifetime in the ACCMIP simulations
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Voulgarakis, A., Naik, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Shindell, D. T, Young, P. J, Prather, M. J, Wild, O., Field, R. D, Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P., Cionni, I., Collins, W. J, Dalsøren, S. B, Doherty, R. M, Eyring, V., Faluvegi, G., Folberth, G. A, Horowitz, L. W, Josse, B., MacKenzie, I. A, Nagashima, T., Plummer, D. A, Righi, M., Rumbold, S. T, Stevenson, D. S, Strode, S. A, Sudo, K., Szopa, S., and Zeng, G.
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atmospheric chemistry ,climate change ,climate modeling ,hydroxyl radical ,methane ,photolysis ,radiative forcing ,stratosphere ,troposphere - Abstract
Results from simulations performed for the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) are analysed to examine how OH and methane lifetime may change from present day to the future, under different climate and emissions scenarios. Present day (2000) mean tropospheric chemical lifetime derived from the ACCMIP multi-model mean is 9.8 ± 1.6 yr (9.3 ± 0.9 yr when only including selected models), lower than a recent observationally-based estimate, but with a similar range to previous multi-model estimates. Future model projections are based on the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and the results also exhibit a large range. Decreases in global methane lifetime of 4.5 ± 9.1% are simulated for the scenario with lowest radiative forcing by 2100 (RCP 2.6), while increases of 8.5 ± 10.4% are simulated for the scenario with highest radiative forcing (RCP 8.5). In this scenario, the key driver of the evolution of OH and methane lifetime is methane itself, since its concentration more than doubles by 2100 and it consumes much of the OH that exists in the troposphere. Stratospheric ozone recovery, which drives tropospheric OH decreases through photolysis modifications, also plays a partial role. In the other scenarios, where methane changes are less drastic, the interplay between various competing drivers leads to smaller and more diverse OH and methane lifetime responses, which are difficult to attribute. For all scenarios, regional OH changes are even more variable, with the most robust feature being the large decreases over the remote oceans in RCP8.5. Through a regression analysis, we suggest that differences in emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds and in the simulation of photolysis rates may be the main factors causing the differences in simulated present day OH and methane lifetime. Diversity in predicted changes between present day and future OH was found to be associated more strongly with differences in modelled temperature and stratospheric ozone changes. Finally, through perturbation experiments we calculated an OH feedback factor (F) of 1.24 from present day conditions (1.50 from 2100 RCP8.5 conditions) and a climate feedback on methane lifetime of 0.33 ± 0.13 yr K−1, on average. Models that did not include interactive stratospheric ozone effects on photolysis showed a stronger sensitivity to climate, as they did not account for negative effects of climate-driven stratospheric ozone recovery on tropospheric OH, which would have partly offset the overall OH/methane lifetime response to climate change.
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- 2013
7. CMIP5 SCIENTIFIC GAPS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR CMIP6
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Stouffer, R. J., Eyring, V., Meehl, G. A., Bony, S., Senior, C., Stevens, B., and Taylor, K. E.
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- 2017
8. A Strategy for Process-Oriented Validation of Coupled Chemistry-Climate Models
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Eyring, V., Harris, N. R. P, Rex, M., Shepherd, T. G, Fahey, D. W, Amanatidis, G. T, Austin, J., Chipperfield, M. P, Dameris, M., Forster, P. M. De F, Gettelman, A., Graf, H. F, Nagashima, T., Newman, P. A, Pawson, S., Prather, M. J, Pyle, J. A, Salawitch, R. J, Santer, B. D, and Waugh, D. W
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atmospheric chemistry ,climate change ,greenhouse effect ,mathematical models ,ozone layer ,upper atmosphere - Abstract
Accurate and reliable predictions and an understanding of future changes in the stratosphere are major aspects of the subject of climate change. Simulating the interaction between chemistry and climate is of particular importance, because continued increases in greenhouse gases and a slow decrease in halogen loading are expected. These both influence the abundance of stratospheric ozone. In recent years a number of coupled chemistry–climate models (CCMs) with different levels of complexity have been developed. They produce a wide range of results concerning the timing and extent of ozone-layer recovery. Interest in reducing this range has created a need to address how the main dynamical, chemical, and physical processes that determine the long-term behavior of ozone are represented in the models and to validate these model processes through comparisons with observations and other models. A set of core validation processes structured around four major topics (transport, dynamics, radiation, and stratospheric chemistry and microphysics) has been developed. Each process is associated with one or more model diagnostics and with relevant datasets that can be used for validation. This approach provides a coherent framework for validating CCMs and can be used as a basis for future assessments. Similar efforts may benefit other modeling communities with a focus on earth science research as their models increase in complexity.
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- 2005
9. Global Chemistry-Climate Modelling with EMAC
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Sausen, R., Deckert, R., Jöckel, P., Aquila, V., Brinkop, S., Burkhardt, U., Cionni, I., Dall’Amico, M., Dameris, M., Dietmüller, S., Eyring, V., Gottschaldt, K., Grewe, V., Hendricks, J., Ponater, M., Righi, M., Wagner, Siegfried, editor, Steinmetz, Matthias, editor, Bode, Arndt, editor, and Müller, Markus Michael, editor
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- 2010
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10. Chemistry–Climate Model Simulations of Twenty-First Century Stratospheric Climate and Circulation Changes
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Butchart, Neal, Cionni, I., Eyring, V., Shepherd, T. G., Waugh, D. W., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Brühl, C., Chipperfield, M. P., Cordero, E., Dameris, M., Deckert, R., Dhomse, S., Frith, S. M., Garcia, R. R., Gettelman, A., Giorgetta, M. A., Kinnison, D. E., Li, F., Mancini, E., McLandress, C., Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Rozanov, E., Sassi, F., Scinocca, J. F., Shibata, K., Steil, B., and Tian, W.
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- 2010
11. On the Generalization of Agricultural Drought Classification from Climate Data
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Gottfriedsen, J., Berrendorf, M., Gentine, P., Hassler, B., Reichstein, M., Weigel, K., and Eyring, V.
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FOS: Computer and information sciences ,Computer Science - Machine Learning ,Machine Learning (cs.LG) - Abstract
Climate change is expected to increase the likelihood of drought events, with severe implications for food security. Unlike other natural disasters, droughts have a slow onset and depend on various external factors, making drought detection in climate data difficult. In contrast to existing works that rely on simple relative drought indices as ground-truth data, we build upon soil moisture index (SMI) obtained from a hydrological model. This index is directly related to insufficiently available water to vegetation. Given ERA5-Land climate input data of six months with land use information from MODIS satellite observation, we compare different models with and without sequential inductive bias in classifying droughts based on SMI. We use PR-AUC as the evaluation measure to account for the class imbalance and obtain promising results despite a challenging time-based split. We further show in an ablation study that the models retain their predictive capabilities given input data of coarser resolutions, as frequently encountered in climate models.
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- 2021
12. Publisher Correction: Reflections and projections on a decade of climate science (Nature Climate Change, (2021), 11, 4, (279-285), 10.1038/s41558-021-01020-x)
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Eyring, V., Mishra, V., Griffith, G.P., Chen, L., Keenan, T., Turetsky, M.R., Brown, Sally, Jotzo, F., Moore, F.C., and van der Linden, S.
- Abstract
Published: 14 June 2021
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- 2021
13. Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – diagnostics for extreme events, regional and impact evaluation and analysis of Earth system models in CMIP
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Weigel, K., Bock, L., Gier, B. K., Lauer, A, Righi, M., Schlund, M., Adeniyi, K., Andela, B., Arnone, E., Berg, P., Caron, L. -P., Cionni, I. Corti S., Drost, N., Hunter, A., Lledó, L., Mohr, C. W., M, Paçal, A., Pérez-Zanón, N., Predoi, V., Sandstad, M., Sillmann, J., Sterl, A., Vegas-Regidor, J., Von Hardenberg, J., L, and Eyring, V.
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- 2021
14. Quantifying Progress Across Different CMIP Phases With the ESMValTool
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Bock, L., primary, Lauer, A., additional, Schlund, M., additional, Barreiro, M., additional, Bellouin, N., additional, Jones, C., additional, Meehl, G. A., additional, Predoi, V., additional, Roberts, M. J., additional, and Eyring, V., additional
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- 2020
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15. Stratospheric Ozone in the 21st Century
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Waugh, D. W., primary, Eyring, V., additional, and Kinnison, D. E., additional
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- 2011
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16. Long-term Ozone Changes and Associated Climate Impacts in CMIP5 Simulations
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Eyring, V, Arblaster, J. M, Cionni, I, Sedlacek, J, Perlwitz, J, Young, P. J, Bekki, S, Bergmann, D, Cameron-Smith, P, Collins, W. J, Faluvegi, G, Gottschaldt, K.-D, Horowitz, L. W, Kinnison, D. E, Lamarque, J.-F, Marsh, D. R, Saint-Martin, D, Shindell, D. T, Sudo, K, Szopa, S, and Watanabe, S
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Meteorology And Climatology - Abstract
Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960-2005) and future (2006-2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long-term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (approximately 20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to approximately 10DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections.
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- 2013
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17. Tropospheric Ozone Changes, Radiative Forcing and Attribution to Emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)
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Stevenson, D.S, Young, P.J, Naik, V, Lamarque, J.-F, Shindell, D. T, Voulgarakis, A, Skeie, R. B, Dalsoren, S. B, Myhre, G, Berntsen, T. K, Folberth, G. A, Rumbold, S. T, Collins, W. J, MacKenzie, I. A, Doherty, R. M, Zeng, G, vanNoije, T. P. C, Strunk, A, Bergmann, D, Cameron-Smith, P, Plummer, D. A, Strode, S. A, Horowitz, L, Lee, Y. H, Szopa, S, Sudo, K, Nagashima, T, Josse, B, Cionni, I, Righi, M, Eyring, V, Conley, A, Bowman, K. W, Wild, O, and Archibald, A
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Meteorology And Climatology - Abstract
Ozone (O3) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). All models applied a common set of anthropogenic emissions, which are better constrained for the present-day than the past. Future anthropogenic emissions follow the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which define a relatively narrow range of possible air pollution emissions. We calculate a value for the pre-industrial (1750) to present-day (2010) tropospheric ozone RF of 410 mW m−2. The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O3 produces a spread (+/-1 standard deviation) in RFs of +/-17%. Three different radiation schemes were used - we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields) of +/-10 percent. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of +/-3 percent. Given additional (unquantified) uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of +/-30 percent for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (44+/-12 percent), nitrogen oxides (31 +/- 9 percent), carbon monoxide (15 +/- 3 percent) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9 +/- 2 percent); earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 42 mW m(−2) DU(−1), a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (mW m(−2); relative to 1750) for the four future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) of 350, 420, 370 and 460 (in 2030), and 200, 300, 280 and 600 (in 2100). Models show some coherent responses of ozone to climate change: decreases in the tropical lower troposphere, associated with increases in water vapour; and increases in the sub-tropical to mid-latitude upper troposphere, associated with increases in lightning and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. Climate change has relatively small impacts on global mean tropospheric ozone RF.
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- 2013
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18. Pre-industrial to End 21st Century Projections of Tropospheric Ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)
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Young, P. J, Archibald, A. T, Bowman, K. W, Lamarque, J.-F, Naik, V, Stevenson, D. S, Tilmes, S, Voulgarakis, A, Wild, O, Bergmann, D, Cameron-Smith, P, Cionni, I, Collins, W. J, Dalsoren, S. B, Doherty, R. M, Eyring, V, Faluvegi, G, Horowitz, L. W, Josse, B, Lee, Y. H, MacKenzie, I. A, Nagashima, T, Plummer, D. A, Righi, M, and Strode, S. A
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Geophysics ,Meteorology And Climatology - Abstract
Present day tropospheric ozone and its changes between 1850 and 2100 are considered, analysing 15 global models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean compares well against present day observations. The seasonal cycle correlates well, except for some locations in the tropical upper troposphere. Most (75 %) of the models are encompassed with a range of global mean tropospheric ozone column estimates from satellite data, but there is a suggestion of a high bias in the Northern Hemisphere and a low bias in the Southern Hemisphere, which could indicate deficiencies with the ozone precursor emissions. Compared to the present day ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden of 337+/-23 Tg, the ensemble mean burden for 1850 time slice is approx. 30% lower. Future changes were modelled using emissions and climate projections from four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Compared to 2000, the relative changes in the ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden in 2030 (2100) for the different RCPs are: −4% (−16 %) for RCP2.6, 2% (−7%) for RCP4.5, 1% (−9%) for RCP6.0, and 7% (18 %) for RCP8.5. Model agreement on the magnitude of the change is greatest for larger changes. Reductions in most precursor emissions are common across the RCPs and drive ozone decreases in all but RCP8.5, where doubled methane and a 40-150% greater stratospheric influx (estimated from a subset of models) increase ozone. While models with a high ozone burden for the present day also have high ozone burdens for the other time slices, no model consistently predicts large or small ozone changes; i.e. the magnitudes of the burdens and burden changes do not appear to be related simply, and the models are sensitive to emissions and climate changes in different ways. Spatial patterns of ozone changes are well correlated across most models, but are notably different for models without time evolving stratospheric ozone concentrations. A unified approach to ozone budget specifications and a rigorous investigation of the factors that drive tropospheric ozone is recommended to help future studies attribute ozone changes and inter-model differences more clearly.
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- 2013
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19. The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Overview and Description of Models, Simulations and Climate Diagnostics
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Lamarque, J.-F, Shindell, D. T, Naik, V, Plummer, D, Josse, B, Righi, M, Rumbold, S. T, Schulz, M, Skeie, R. B, Strode, S, Young, P. J, Cionni, I, Dalsoren, S, Eyring, V, Bergmann, D, Cameron-Smith, P, Collins, W. J, Doherty, R, Faluvegi, G, Folberth, G, Ghan, S. J, Horowitz, L. W, Lee, Y. H, MacKenzie, I. A, and Nagashima, T
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Meteorology And Climatology - Abstract
The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) consists of a series of time slice experiments targeting the long-term changes in atmospheric composition between 1850 and 2100, with the goal of documenting composition changes and the associated radiative forcing. In this overview paper, we introduce the ACCMIP activity, the various simulations performed (with a requested set of 14) and the associated model output. The 16 ACCMIP models have a wide range of horizontal and vertical resolutions, vertical extent, chemistry schemes and interaction with radiation and clouds. While anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions were specified for all time slices in the ACCMIP protocol, it is found that the natural emissions are responsible for a significant range across models, mostly in the case of ozone precursors. The analysis of selected present-day climate diagnostics (precipitation, temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind) reveals biases consistent with state-of-the-art climate models. The model-to- model comparison of changes in temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind between 1850 and 2000 and between 2000 and 2100 indicates mostly consistent results. However, models that are clear outliers are different enough from the other models to significantly affect their simulation of atmospheric chemistry.
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- 2013
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20. Interpretation of Mid-Stratospheric Arctic Ozone Measurements Using a Photochemical Box-Model
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Sinnhuber, B.-M., Müller, R., Langer, J., Bovensmann, H., Eyring, V., Klein, U., Trentmann, J., Burrows, J. P., and Künzi, K. F.
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- 1999
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21. Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate-Chemistry Interactions
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Isaksen, I.S.A, Granier, C, Myhre, G, Bernsten, T. K, Dalsoren, S. B, Gauss, S, Klimont, Z, Benestad, R, Bousquet, P, Collins, W, Cox, T, Eyring, V, Fowler, D, Fuzzi, S, Jockel, P, Laj, P, Lohmann, U, Maione, M, Monks, T, Prevot, A. S. H, Raes, F, Richter, A, Rognerud, B, Schulz, M, Shindell, D, Stevenson, D. S, Storelvmo, T, Wang, W.-C, vanWeele, M, Wild, M, and Wuebbles, D
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Meteorology And Climatology - Abstract
Chemically active climate compounds are either primary compounds such as methane (CH4), removed by oxidation in the atmosphere, or secondary compounds such as ozone (O3), sulfate and organic aerosols, formed and removed in the atmosphere. Man-induced climate-chemistry interaction is a two-way process: Emissions of pollutants change the atmospheric composition contributing to climate change through the aforementioned climate components, and climate change, through changes in temperature, dynamics, the hydrological cycle, atmospheric stability, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions, affects the atmospheric composition and oxidation processes in the troposphere. Here we present progress in our understanding of processes of importance for climate-chemistry interactions, and their contributions to changes in atmospheric composition and climate forcing. A key factor is the oxidation potential involving compounds such as O3 and the hydroxyl radical (OH). Reported studies represent both current and future changes. Reported results include new estimates of radiative forcing based on extensive model studies of chemically active climate compounds such as O3, and of particles inducing both direct and indirect effects. Through EU projects such as ACCENT, QUANTIFY, and the AEROCOM project, extensive studies on regional and sector-wise differences in the impact on atmospheric distribution are performed. Studies have shown that land-based emissions have a different effect on climate than ship and aircraft emissions, and different measures are needed to reduce the climate impact. Several areas where climate change can affect the tropospheric oxidation process and the chemical composition are identified. This can take place through enhanced stratospheric-tropospheric exchange of ozone, more frequent periods with stable conditions favouring pollution build up over industrial areas, enhanced temperature-induced biogenic emissions, methane releases from permafrost thawing, and enhanced concentration through reduced biospheric uptake. During the last 510 years, new observational data have been made available and used for model validation and the study of atmospheric processes. Although there are significant uncertainties in the modelling of composition changes, access to new observational data has improved modelling capability. Emission scenarios for the coming decades have a large uncertainty range, in particular with respect to regional trends, leading to a significant uncertainty range in estimated regional composition changes and climate impact.
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- 2011
22. Multimodel Assessment of the Factors Driving Stratospheric Ozone Evolution over the 21st Century
- Author
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Oman, L. D, Plummer, D. A, Waugh, D. W, Austin, J, Scinocca, J. F, Douglass, A. R, Salawitch, R. J, Canty, T, Akiyoshi, H, Bekki, S, Braesicke, P, Butchart, N, Chipperfield, M. P, Cugnet, D, Dhomse, S, Eyring, V, Frith, S, Hardiman, S. C, Kinnison, D. E, Lamarque, J.-F, Mancini, E, Marchand, M, Michou, M, Morgenstern, O, and Nakamura, T
- Subjects
Geophysics - Abstract
The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from 14 chemistry-climate models, driven by prescribed levels of halogens and greenhouse gases. There is general agreement among the models that total column ozone reached a minimum around year 2000 at all latitudes, projected to be followed by an increase over the first half of the 21st century. In the second half of the 21st century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off, or even decrease depending on the latitude. Separation into partial columns above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely caused by differences in the model projections of ozone in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and is projected to return to 1960 levels well before the end of the century, although there is a spread among models in the dates that ozone returns to specific historical values. We find decreasing halogens and declining upper atmospheric temperatures, driven by increasing greenhouse gases, contribute almost equally to increases in upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere, an increase in upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in most of the models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century, returning to 1960 levels well before the end of the century in most models.
- Published
- 2010
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
23. Quantifying Uncertainty in Projections of Stratospheric Ozone Over the 21st Century
- Author
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Charlton-Perez, A. J, Hawkins, E, Eyring, V, Cionni, I, Bodeker, G. E, Kinnison, D. E, Akiyoshi, H, Frith, S. M, Garcia, R, Gettelman, A, Lamarque, J. F, Nakamura, T, Pawson, S, Yamashita, Y, Bekki, S, Braesicke, P, Chipperfield, M. P, Dhomse, S, Marchand, M, Mancini, E, Morgenstern, O, Pitari, G, Plummer, D, Pyle, J. A, and Rozanov, E
- Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology - Abstract
Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an ensemble of opportunity of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for 10 ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21 st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations 15 return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels.
- Published
- 2010
24. Multi-Model Assessment of the Factors Driving Stratospheric Ozone Evolution Over the 21st Century
- Author
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Oman, L. D, Plummer, D. A, Waugh, D. W, Austin, J, Scinocca, J, Douglass, A. R, Salawitch, R. J, Canty, T, Akiyoshi, H, Bekki, S, Braesicke, P, Butchart, N, Chipperfield, M. P, Cugnet, D, Dhomse, S, Eyring, V, Frith, S, Hardiman, S. C, Kinnison, D. E, Lamarque, J. F, Mancini, E, Marchand, M, Michou, M, Morgenstern, O, and Nakamura T
- Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology - Abstract
The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from fourteen chemistry-climate models. There is general agreement among the models at the broadest levels, showing column ozone decreasing at all latitudes from 1960 to around 2000, then increasing at all latitudes over the first half of the 21st century, and latitudinal variations in the rate of increase and date of return to historical values. In the second half of the century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off or even decrease depending on the latitude, resulting in variable dates of return to historical values at latitudes where column ozone has declined below those levels. Separation into partial column above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely due to differences in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and returns to 1960 levels before the end of the century, although there is a spread among the models in dates that ozone returns to historical values. Using multiple linear regression, we find decreasing halogens and increasing greenhouse gases contribute almost equally to increases in the upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere an increase in tropical upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in all models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century and returns to 1960 levels.
- Published
- 2010
25. The impact of horizontal transport on the chemical composition in the tropopause region: lightning NO x and streamers
- Author
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Grewe, V., Shindell, D.T., and Eyring, V.
- Published
- 2004
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
26. Evaluation of ACCMIP outgoing longwave radiation from tropospheric ozone using TES satellite observations
- Author
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Bowman, Kevin, Shindell, Drew T., Worden, Helen, Lamarque, J. F., Young, Paul, Stevenson, D. S., Qu, Z., de la Torre, M, Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, Philip, Collins, William J., Doherty, R. M., Dalsoren, Stig B, Eyring, V., Faluvegi, G., Folberth, G., Ghan, S, Horowitz, L. W., Josse, B, Lee, Yunha H, MacKenzie, Ian A., Myhre, G, Nagashima, T, Naik, Vaishali, Plummer, David A, Skeie, R, Strode, Sarah, Sudo, K., Szopa, Sophie, Voulgarakis, A., Zeng, Guang, Kulawik, S, Aghedo, A, Worden, J, Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, University of Edinburgh, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation du climat (CLIM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
- Subjects
Atmospheric Science ,Ozone ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,02 engineering and technology ,Atmospheric sciences ,01 natural sciences ,7. Clean energy ,lcsh:Chemistry ,Troposphere ,CARBON-DIOXIDE ,chemistry.chemical_compound ,SOUTHERN AFRICA ,PREINDUSTRIAL TIMES ,Radiative transfer ,Tropospheric ozone ,[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment ,ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY ,ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS ,021101 geological & geomatics engineering ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere ,CHEMISTRY-CLIMATE MODELS ,Radiative forcing ,lcsh:QC1-999 ,NADIR RETRIEVALS ,TROPICAL TROPOSPHERE ,Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer ,lcsh:QD1-999 ,chemistry ,13. Climate action ,Climatology ,Atmospheric chemistry ,Environmental science ,Outgoing longwave radiation ,ZONAL STRUCTURE ,BIOMASS BURNING EMISSIONS ,INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT ACCMIP ,lcsh:Physics - Abstract
We use simultaneous observations of tropospheric ozone and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) sensitivity to tropospheric ozone from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) to evaluate model tropospheric ozone and its effect on OLR simulated by a suite of chemistry-climate models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean of ACCMIP models show a persistent but modest tropospheric ozone low bias (5–20 ppb) in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and modest high bias (5–10 ppb) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) relative to TES ozone for 2005–2010. These ozone biases have a significant impact on the OLR. Using TES instantaneous radiative kernels (IRK), we show that the ACCMIP ensemble mean tropospheric ozone low bias leads up to 120 mW m−2 OLR high bias locally but zonally compensating errors reduce the global OLR high bias to 39 ± 41 m Wm−2 relative to TES data. We show that there is a correlation (R2 = 0.59) between the magnitude of the ACCMIP OLR bias and the deviation of the ACCMIP preindustrial to present day (1750–2010) ozone radiative forcing (RF) from the ensemble ozone RF mean. However, this correlation is driven primarily by models whose absolute OLR bias from tropospheric ozone exceeds 100 m Wm−2. Removing these models leads to a mean ozone radiative forcing of 394 ± 42 m Wm−2. The mean is about the same and the standard deviation is about 30% lower than an ensemble ozone RF of 384 ± 60 m Wm−2 derived from 14 of the 16 ACCMIP models reported in a companion ACCMIP study. These results point towards a profitable direction of combining satellite observations and chemistry-climate model simulations to reduce uncertainty in ozone radiative forcing.
- Published
- 2013
27. Report on the 5th SPARC General Assembly
- Author
-
Arblaster, J., Eyring, V., Fahey, D., Santee, M., Sato, K., Scaife, A., Young, P., Alexander, S., Garfinkel, C., Geller, M., MacDonald, A., Osprey, S., and Tegtmeier, Susann
- Subjects
ozone ,model evaluation ,climate change ,methane ,Erdsystem-Modellierung ,stratosphere ,modeling ,chemistry-climate - Abstract
Beautiful Queestown, New Zealand, was hot to the nearly 300 scientists from around the globe that came together to participate in the 5th SPARC General Assembly in 2008 meant that a lot has happened since SPARC hat its last "family reunion" in Bologna, Italy. SPARC's evaluation has continued and its reach has extended to inluce aspects of the troposphere which have links with the stratosphere
- Published
- 2014
28. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organisation
- Author
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Eyring, V., primary, Bony, S., additional, Meehl, G. A., additional, Senior, C., additional, Stevens, B., additional, Stouffer, R. J., additional, and Taylor, K. E., additional
- Published
- 2015
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
29. Long-term changes in tropospheric and stratospheric ozone and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations
- Author
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Eyring, V., Cionni, I, Arblaster, J, Sedlacek, J, Perlwitz, Judith, Young, Paul, Bekki, Slimane, Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, Philip, Collins, William J., Faluvegi, G., Gottschaldt, K. -D., Horowitz, L. W., Kinnison, Doug, Lamarque, Jean-Francois, Marsh, D.R., Saint-Martin, D., Shindell, Drew T., Sudo, K., Szopa, Sophie, and Watanabe, S
- Abstract
[1] Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960–2005) and future (2006–2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long-term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (~20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to ~10 DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections.
- Published
- 2013
30. World Climate Research Programme Open Science Conference - The SPARC Perspective
- Author
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Alexander, M. J., Eyring, V., Hegglin, M., McFarlane, N., Pendlebury, D., Rosenlof, K., Ramaswamy, V., and Santee, M. L.
- Subjects
climate change ,stratosphere ,WCRP ,SPARC - Published
- 2012
31. IEEE GRSS welcomes contributions of the society members to the preparation of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Reprort
- Author
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Eyring, V., Knutti, R., and Textor, C.
- Subjects
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ,climate change ,model evaluation and analysis ,IPCC - Published
- 2011
32. Developments in CCMVal and Related Model Intercomparison Projects
- Author
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Eyring, V.
- Subjects
stratospheric ozone ,model evaluation ,CCMVal ,Model Intercomparison Projects - Published
- 2011
33. Process-Oriented Evaluation of Chemistry-Climate and Earth System Models
- Author
-
Eyring, V.
- Subjects
stratospheric ozone ,model evaluation ,Earth System Models ,CCMVal - Published
- 2011
34. Impact of Ship Emissions on Atmosphere and Climate
- Author
-
Eyring, V.
- Subjects
Ship Emissions - Published
- 2011
35. Performance metrics and data in global model evaluations
- Author
-
Eyring, V.
- Subjects
stratospheric ozone ,model evaluation ,Earth System Models ,CCMVal - Published
- 2011
36. Impact of Ship Emissions on Atmosphere and Climate (as geoengineering analogue)
- Author
-
Eyring, V.
- Subjects
Ship Emissions - Published
- 2011
37. Stratospheric Ozone in the 21st Century
- Author
-
Waugh, D.W., Eyring, V., and Kinnison, D.E.
- Subjects
modelling ,ozone ,climate change ,stratosphere ,chemistry-climate - Published
- 2011
38. Supplementary material to "ESMValTool (v1.0) – a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth System Models in CMIP"
- Author
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Eyring, V., primary, Righi, M., additional, Evaldsson, M., additional, Lauer, A., additional, Wenzel, S., additional, Jones, C., additional, Anav, A., additional, Andrews, O., additional, Cionni, I., additional, Davin, E. L., additional, Deser, C., additional, Ehbrecht, C., additional, Friedlingstein, P., additional, Gleckler, P., additional, Gottschaldt, K.-D., additional, Hagemann, S., additional, Juckes, M., additional, Kindermann, S., additional, Krasting, J., additional, Kunert, D., additional, Levine, R., additional, Loew, A., additional, Mäkelä, J., additional, Martin, G., additional, Mason, E., additional, Phillips, A., additional, Read, S., additional, Rio, C., additional, Roehrig, R., additional, Senftleben, D., additional, Sterl, A., additional, van Ulft, L. H., additional, Walton, J., additional, Wang, S., additional, and Williams, K. D., additional
- Published
- 2015
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
39. ESMValTool (v1.0) – a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth System Models in CMIP
- Author
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Eyring, V., primary, Righi, M., additional, Evaldsson, M., additional, Lauer, A., additional, Wenzel, S., additional, Jones, C., additional, Anav, A., additional, Andrews, O., additional, Cionni, I., additional, Davin, E. L., additional, Deser, C., additional, Ehbrecht, C., additional, Friedlingstein, P., additional, Gleckler, P., additional, Gottschaldt, K.-D., additional, Hagemann, S., additional, Juckes, M., additional, Kindermann, S., additional, Krasting, J., additional, Kunert, D., additional, Levine, R., additional, Loew, A., additional, Mäkelä, J., additional, Martin, G., additional, Mason, E., additional, Phillips, A., additional, Read, S., additional, Rio, C., additional, Roehrig, R., additional, Senftleben, D., additional, Sterl, A., additional, van Ulft, L. H., additional, Walton, J., additional, Wang, S., additional, and Williams, K. D., additional
- Published
- 2015
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
40. Quantitative evaluation of ozone and selected climate parameters in a set of EMAC simulations
- Author
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Righi, M., primary, Eyring, V., additional, Gottschaldt, K.-D., additional, Klinger, C., additional, Frank, F., additional, Jöckel, P., additional, and Cionni, I., additional
- Published
- 2015
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
41. Evaluation of Chemistry-Climate Models
- Author
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Eyring, V, Shepherd, T. G., Waugh, D. W., Morgenstern, O, Giorgetta, M. A., Shibata, K, Waugh, D, Akiyoshi, H, Austin, J, Baumgärtner, A, Bekki, S, Braesicke, P, Brühl, C, Chipperfield, M. P., Dameris, M, Frith, S, Garny, H, Gettelman, A, Hardiman, S. C., Hegglin, M, Jonsson, A, Kinnison, D, Lamarque, J. F., Mancini, E, Manzini, E, Michou, M, Nielsen, E, Pitari, Giovanni, Rozanov, E, Scinocca, J. F., Smale, D, Strahan, S, Toohey, M, and Tian, W.
- Published
- 2010
42. Vorhersagen von stratosphärischem Ozon im 21. Jahrhundert
- Author
-
Eyring , V.
- Subjects
Stratosphäre ,Ozon - Published
- 2010
43. Activities and views of the WGNE/WGCM metrics panel and WGCM
- Author
-
Eyring , V.
- Subjects
model evaluation - Published
- 2010
44. A Framework for Process-Oriented Evaluation of Earth System Models
- Author
-
Eyring , V. and Friedlingstein, P.
- Subjects
model evaluation - Published
- 2010
45. Review of the formulation of present‐generation stratospheric chemistry‐climate models and associated external forcings
- Author
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Morgenstern, O., Giorgetta, M. A., Shibata, K., Eyring, V., Waugh, D. W., Shepherd, T. G., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Baumgaertner, A. J. G., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Brühl, C., Chipperfield, M. P., Cugnet, D., Dameris, M., Dhomse, S., Frith, S. M., Garny, H., Gettelman, A., Hardiman, S. C., Hegglin, M. I., Jöckel, P., Kinnison, D. E., Lamarque, J. -F., Mancini, E., Manzini, E., Marchand, M., Michou, M., Nakamura, T., Nielsen, J. E., Olivié, D., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J. F., Smale, D., Teyssèdre, H., Toohey, M., Tian, W., and Yamashita, Y.
- Abstract
The goal of the Chemistry‐Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) activity is to improve understanding of chemistry‐climate models (CCMs) through process‐oriented evaluation and to provide reliable projections of stratospheric ozone and its impact on climate. An appreciation of the details of model formulations is essential for understanding how models respond to the changing external forcings of greenhouse gases and ozonedepleting substances, and hence for understanding the ozone and climate forecasts produced by the models participating in this activity. Here we introduce and review the models used for the second round (CCMVal‐2) of this intercomparison, regarding the implementation of chemical, transport, radiative, and dynamical processes in these models. In particular, we review the advantages and problems associated with approaches used to model processes of relevance to stratospheric dynamics and chemistry. Furthermore, we state the definitions of the reference simulations performed, and describe the forcing data used in these simulations. We identify some developments in chemistry‐climate modeling that make models more physically based or more comprehensive, including the introduction of an interactive ocean, online photolysis, troposphere‐stratosphere chemistry, and non‐orographic gravity‐wave deposition as linked to tropospheric convection. The\ud relatively new developments indicate that stratospheric CCM modeling is becoming more consistent with our physically based understanding of the atmosphere.
- Published
- 2010
46. Good Practice Guidance Paper on Assessing and Combining Multi Model Climate Projections
- Author
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Knutti, R., Abramowitz, G., Collins, M., Eyring , V., Gleckler, P.J., Hewitson, B., and Mearns, L.
- Subjects
climate change ,climate model - Published
- 2010
47. Quantitative evaluation of ozone and selected climate parameters in a set of EMAC simulations
- Author
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Righi, M., primary, Eyring, V., additional, Gottschaldt, K.-D., additional, Klinger, C., additional, Frank, F., additional, Jöckel, P., additional, and Cionni, I., additional
- Published
- 2014
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
48. Supplementary material to "Quantitative evaluation of ozone and selected climate parameters in a set of EMAC simulations"
- Author
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Righi, M., primary, Eyring, V., additional, Gottschaldt, K.-D., additional, Klinger, C., additional, Frank, F., additional, Jöckel, P., additional, and Cionni, I., additional
- Published
- 2014
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
49. Technical support for European action to reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from international maritime transport
- Author
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Faber, J., Markowska, A., Nelissen, D., Davidson, M., Eyring, V., Cionni, I., Selstad, E., Kågeson, P., Lee, D., Buhaug, Ø., Lindtsad, H., Roche, P., Humpries, E., Graichen, J., Cames, M., Schwarz, W., and Computational Geo-Ecology (IBED, FNWI)
- Abstract
The European Union has pledged to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 20% by 2020 and, like other sectors, maritime shipping should contribute to securing this target. The EU would preferably like to see action at a global level. However, if no international agreement is reached by the end of 2011, the European Commission will propose a policy to include international maritime emissions in abatement efforts. This report has been written for the European Commission, DG Environment, to provide technical assistance in preparing such a policy to reduce GHG emissions from maritime transport. This report demonstrates that of the many policy instruments available to address these emissions, directly or indirectly, the inclusion of maritime shipping in the EU Emission Trading Scheme is the most environmentally effective as well as cost-effective. Under the EU ETS, ship operators would have to surrender allowances for emissions on voyages to EU ports. They would have to do so regardless of the flag or nationality of the owner. Some ships may be diverted as a result, but this can be kept to a minimum by defining a voyage as the route from the port of loading to the port of discharge. For most types of vessel this would make it uneconomical to change route. Other instruments, such as an emissions tax, would be effective but could be harder to implement. Yet other instruments, such as efficiency standards for ships entering EU ports, would have less scope for reducing emissions and suffer from carbon leakage. This report for the first time provides a reliable estimate of GHG emissions from maritime transport on voyages to EU ports. These amount to 208 Mt CO2, equal to 4.1% of EU land-based emissions. Despite the potentially significant efficiency improvements available in this sector, its emissions are projected to rise in the coming decades.
- Published
- 2009
50. Past and Future non-CO2 emissions for IPCC AR5
- Author
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Lamarque, J.-F., Granier, Claire, Bond, T., Eyring, V., Kainuma, M., Masui, T., Liousse, C., Mieville, Aude, Rihai, K., Schultz, M., Schulz, M, Smith, S., Thompson, A., Stevenson, D., van Aardenne, J., van Vuuren, D., National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), TROPO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [Urbana], University of Illinois System, DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre (IPA), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt [Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling] (DLR), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Laboratoire d'aérologie (LAERO), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Institute for Energy and Climate Research (IEK), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH | Centre de recherche de Juliers, Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association-Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)-University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, European Environment Agency (EEA), Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
- Subjects
[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes ,[SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society - Abstract
We will discuss the recently created emission datasets that will be used in the AR5 (Assessment Report 5) of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report under preparation. These emissions will be used as boundary conditions for the air quality simulations from 1850 to about 2030, as well as to calculate the concentrations which will be used in the coupled earth-system models used in the climate simulations done over the 1850-2300 period.Emissions of gaseous and particulate species (i.e. aerosols, aerosol precursors, ozone precursors and ozone-destroying agents) from anthropogenic activities and biomass burning have been defined over the full period, using the 2000 dataset for harmonization of the past and current 1850-2000 emissions with the future emissions determined by the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs).We will describe the methodology used to create the historical emissions using a variety of existing datasets. An evaluation and harmonization across different emission datasets and different periods has been achieved. Based on this evaluation, one dataset was selected for each emission sector for each compound. A methodology was defined in order to harmonize these different datasets over different regions, and ensure a good consistency of the datasets over the full period. A gridding methodology was also defined, and emissions at a 0.5x0.5 resolution are provided. Future emissions are generated by integrated assessment models. These projections are calibrated to the consensus year 2000 inventory and are consistent with the four underlying 21st century "representative concentration pathways" (RCPs) and their associated economic, energy, and land-use changes.We will also present the various ways such datasets are made available to the community.
- Published
- 2009
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