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As trade volume has exponentially increased over the past decades, we investigated the impact of free trade on relative poverty using data from 123 countries between 1995 and 2018. In this investigation, we used three variables for free trade, reflecting three aspects of free trade, trade openness, trade barrier or trade freedom, and trade policy, and two variables for relative poverty; the income share of the bottom 10% and the bottom 20%. When economic growth, polity and socioeconomic factors are controlled for, we found that (1) trade openness hurts the poor, increasing relative poverty regardless of industrialization, (2) trade freedom benefits the poor, decreasing relative poverty although the poor in industrial countries are hurt by trade freedom, and (3) WTO membership as a proxy for a trade policy is not statistically significant to the poor, although it seems beneficial to the poor. Given these results, we conclude that free trade lowers relative poverty, implying that the income shares of the bottoms 10% and 20% can increase more than by 0.9%p and 1.5%p, respectively, as free trade is promoted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), trade openness, and remittances received on the novel misery index, a measure of macroeconomic dynamics, while considering heterogeneity in misery levels. It analyzed data from 1995 to 2022 across six economically uncomfortable East African Community (EAC) countries. Given the non-normal distribution of the data, a panel quantile regression model was employed to address both distributional and unobserved individual heterogeneity. The empirical findings indicated the weak negative effects of FDI in the lower misery index countries and stronger negative effects in the upper misery index countries. Trade openness shows stronger negative and statistically significant effects in lower misery countries, while its effects are negative but not significant in higher misery countries. Additionally, remittance inflows have a more pronounced positive impact in lower misery countries but show lesser positive effects in countries with higher misery levels. The results are robust even after accounting for additional controls, exclusion of regressors, outliers, and endogeneity issues, suggesting that foreign funds can enhance economic stability for those in misery. The study recommends promoting clean FDI in lower-meminous countries, beneficial trade agreements, and encouraging diaspora communities to advocate for productive remittances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use unique enterprise survey data to explore the export behavior of firms in Tunisia, a small, trade-dependent country with a complex policy environment regarding exporting. Firms may export directly or indirectly through intermediaries, and can also sell to ‘offshore’ firms, which are export manufacturing firms with special legal status. Firm size, a proxy for productivity, is strongly associated with exporting of either type as well as with sales to offshore firms. In contrast to some studies, exporting is not positively associated with firm age (i.e., experience). Domestic-owned firms are more likely to use intermediaries to export while foreign-owned firms as well as those with more educated managers are more likely to export directly. Multinomial logit results reject the hypothesis of progression from indirect exports through direct plus indirect exporting and then to direct-only exporting as firm size increases; instead, the largest exporting firms are more likely to combine direct and indirect exporting, possibly to reduce risk. The findings from this study – the first to examine the heterogeneity of exporting behavior in Tunisia – reveal a complex picture of such behavior and confirm the importance of trade intermediaries for less sophisticated firms (those with lower manager education and internet access), pointing to potential measures to encourage exporting among such enterprises. The findings also suggest that efforts to encourage exporting may also improve firms’ ability to sell to ‘offshore’ firms, enhancing the so far elusive linkages of that sector with the rest of the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the impact of real exchange rate (RER) misalignment on the trade balance between the United States and China, accounting for the complexity of traded products. We employ two recent econometric techniques: the panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to estimate both long – and short-run dynamics, and the dynamic panel threshold model of Seo, M. H., and Y. Shin (2016. “Dynamic Panels with Threshold Effect and Endogeneity.” Journal of Econometrics 195 (2): 169–186) to uncover potential non-linearities and identify critical thresholds that could lead to a regime shift. Using highly disaggregated trade data at the HS 06-digit level, encompassing 913 products from 2004 to 2020, our findings reveal a negative impact of RER misalignment on the United States’ trade balance with China. However, this detrimental effect is significant only in industries dealing with less complex products. In contrast, industries handling highly complex products show a notably positive impact. Furthermore, our results suggest that industries can benefit from an undervalued exchange rate only when they have a relatively high level of product complexity. Additionally, heightened product complexity can mitigate any adverse effects overvaluation might have on the trade balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate the effects of the US–China Trade War on Brazilian exports in 2018 and 2019. We analyze the impacts from two perspectives: (i) on total Brazilian exports and (ii) on Brazilian exports of those products on which the United States imposed tariffs against China in the trade war. We used the statistical method of panel data. The results show that Brazil obtained export gains in the first analysis, while its exports were negatively affected in the second analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past six years, the Sino-US trade war has not only reshaped the relationship between the world's two largest economies but also profoundly influenced the global economic and trade patterns. This paper reviews the background, process, and implications of the Sino-US trade war, examining its impact on China, the United States, and the broader global trade landscape across various socioeconomic dimensions. We begin by reviewing the development of Sino-US trade relations in the past 20 years. Next we detail the background and evolution of the trade war. We then discuss the economic consequences of the conflict, including the effect of tariff increases on product prices, employment, investment, consumption, and welfare. Finally, we explore the reshaping of supply chains in the aftermath of the trade conflict, and the interaction between trade policies and industrial policies within the context of the Sino-US trade war.Existing literature indicates that the Sino-US trade war has resulted in significant welfare losses for both countries, with surprisingly little impact on employment. The tariffs have not achieved the intended outcome set by policymakers. Specifically, the additional tariffs imposed by the United States on China have neither effectively addressed trade imbalances nor brought manufacturing jobs back onshore. Our paper offers a new perspective on the complexity of the current international trade conflict.

Previous work in the literature on regional economic integration has proposed the use of machine learning algorithms to evaluate the composition of customs unions, specifically, to estimate the degree to which customs unions match “natural markets” arising from trade flow data or appear to be driven by other factors such as political considerations. This paper expands upon the static approaches used in previous studies to develop a dynamic framework that allows to evaluate not only the composition of customs unions at a given point in time, but also changes in the composition over time resulting from accessions of new member states. We then apply the dynamic algorithm to evaluate the evolution of the global landscape of customs unions using data on bilateral trade flows of 200 countries from 1958 to 2018. A key finding is that there is considerable variation across different accession rounds of the European Union as to the extent to which these are aligned with the structure of “natural markets,” with some accession rounds following more strongly a commercial logic than others. Similar results are also found for other customs unions in the world, complementing the insights obtained from static analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of the digital economy in Southeast Asia (SEA). It evaluates SEA’s digital economy industry from various perspectives, analysing the reasons for its rapid development as a non-core innovation area of the digital economy.

For an extended period, international economists have focused on trade policies related to natural resources in developing countries. However, prevailing analytical frameworks primarily examine the impact of export and import policies when natural resource stocks are subject to singular or distinct adverse externalities. In contrast, developing nations with less stringent environmental management regulations frequently grapple with open-access and industrial pollution externalities. This research extends the analysis of trade policies on natural resources by incorporating the concurrent presence of within- and inter-industry externalities, thereby significantly altering the autarkic equilibrium’s character. A two-sector general equilibrium model assesses the economic, stock conservation, and welfare implications of implementing export and import taxes on renewable resource commodities. The study reveals that resource-exporting countries’ enforcement of resource export taxes can yield a triple win, contingent on the relative damage inflicted by open-access renewable resources and manufacturing sectors. Conversely, import taxes imposed by resource-importing nations result in a triple loss. Furthermore, the model suggests that import subsidies for resource goods can promote resource conservation and welfare benefits compared to free trade without trade policies, mainly when pollution dominates open-access externality in terms of depleting on the environmental stock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study employs the stochastic frontier gravity model (SFGM) to objectively assess the determinants of India’s rice exports from 2001 to 2019 across 22 major export destinations, highlighting untapped export potential and providing actionable policy recommendations for enhancing competitiveness in global rice markets. Results show that India's economic growth (GDP) and the GDP of importing nations positively impact rice exports. Conversely, geographical distances (representing transportation costs) and higher import tariffs act as deterrents. The devaluation of the Indian rupee positively influences export revenues. Common language benefits exports, while regional trade agreements show minimal impact. The study estimates significant untapped export potential between India and its partners, emphasizing the need for improved trade facilitation, logistics, and agreements.To maximize India's rice export potential, policymakers should prioritize quality compliance, streamline regulations, and invest in infrastructure and R&D for rice cultivars. Negotiating favorable trade agreements and implementing existing export policies like the New Agricultural Export Policy will aid market access and competitiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the impact of China’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on the export sophistication of countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Through an examination of data spanning from 2010 to 2015, our findings reveal that China’s OFDI significantly enhances export sophistication in host countries, with a more pronounced effect observed in relatively poor BRI nations. However, the positive correlation between China’s OFDI and export sophistication diminishes in host countries characterized by elevated productivity levels. Utilizing a structural equation model, we identify host country productivity as a crucial mediating factor. The indirect technology spillover effects of China’s OFDI, facilitated through increased productivity, account for approximately 39% of their overall impact on export sophistication. Furthermore, we delineate threshold effects of productivity for China’s OFDI, demonstrating substantial positive effects in host countries with a GDP per capita below the first threshold (approximately US$1,141) or within the range of the first and second thresholds (around US$7,115). Upon consideration of these thresholds, distinctions in the effects of China’s OFDI between BRI and non-BRI host countries diminish. Our analysis underscores that the favorable influence of China’s OFDI extends beyond the BRI, providing benefits to low and middle-income countries globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides an overview of the macroeconomic challenges facing the 10 countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It discusses various macroeconomic indicators and the importance of achieving high levels of economic growth. The article also explores ASEAN's participation in Regional Value Chains (RVCs) and Global Value Chains (GVCs), particularly in the automotive and electronics industries. It examines the adoption of inflation targeting frameworks by ASEAN countries and evaluates their macroeconomic performance. The text further analyzes the fiscal sustainability of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, providing policy recommendations to enhance revenue collection and reduce subsidies. It also discusses the challenges faced by Vietnam's economy and suggests policy measures to overcome them. The article touches on economic issues in Cambodia and Laos, including technology spillovers, Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) implementation, and financial system reform. The perspectives presented offer insights into these countries' economic situations and potential policy measures. [Extracted from the article]

This paper examines the macroeconomic and development policies to spur economic integration and growth in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It reviews how economic transformation and integration have fueled growth and job creation in the region. ASEAN's increased participation in global and regional value chains, with the People's Republic of China (PRC) as a regional hub, laid the solid foundation of regional production networks. However, with the changing role of the PRC in global value chains, the region needs to renew policy initiatives to address the development challenges and seize new growth opportunities with its single market goals. The analysis suggests the region requires strategic plans for infrastructure development, digitalization, and greater integration reinforced by the removal of trade barriers, increased labor mobility, and foreign direct investment mobilization. The region's successful future also depends on cooperative policy efforts around developing e‐government and digital value chains, strengthening micro‐, small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises and startups, and building smart cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present article discusses changes in tariff and non-tariff restrictions applied in World Trade Organization (WTO) countries during the COVID-19 pandemic.

This study analyzes the determinants of intra-ECCAS trade, with special attention paid to the role of institutional quality from 1996 to 2021.

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic posed an unprecedented shock on the demand and supply chains of commodities, thus, disrupting trade flows globally. Albeit East African Community (EAC) countries reported negative trade balances even prior to the inception of the pandemic; it remains unknown as to whether the situation significantly deteriorated in the pandemic era. This study, therefore, evaluated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the trade balance of EAC economies for the period March 2020–December 2022 using the PMG model. Further, it assessed the differentiated impact of the pandemic on the value of imports and exports. First, the findings revealed the presence of a long-run relationship between COVID-19 and trade deficit/imports/exports in the region. Secondly, whereas the impact of the pandemic on the trade deficit was insignificant in the short run; it was positive and significant in the long run. This suggested that despite the easing of the stringent lockdown measures, countries in the region are still feeling the effects of the pandemic. Thirdly, while the pandemic significantly increased imports in the short run, its impact was insignificant in the long run. Contrariwise, no impact of the pandemic was found on exports. The study, thus, recommends that though current increased controls and surveillance on trade remain inevitable, such measures should be instigated in a manner that does not overly disrupt the normal trade flows. Additionally, EAC countries need to bolster their production chains to guarantee self-reliance which is critical in ensuring that intraregional trade in the region remains buoyant in such challenging times.

Structural quantitative work in international economics typically models trade costs as a log‐linear function of exogenous trade‐policy variables. We propose a structural approach that allows for a nonparametric relationship and for treating tariff and nontariff trade‐policy variables as potentially endogenous. The data reject the assumption of log‐linearity of trade costs in both tariff‐ and nontariff‐policy variables. We assess the effects of a unilateral increase of US tariffs on Chinese imports by 10 percentage points and document that the estimated effects on real bilateral trade‐flow changes would be substantially underestimated by standard approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically examines how exports respond to exchange rate movements (exchange rate and exchange rate volatility) at the micro and macro levels using Turkey’s bilateral export data with 65 partner countries. Panel data contaninig 65 cross-sectional dimensions and 60 monthly time series dimensions from 2018:01 to 2022:12 are used. The empirical results of the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) technique show that the negative effect of exchange rate volatility on micro export flows is amplified. Moreover, the potential positive effect of the exchange rate on micro export flows is weaker. Our findings are robust against the alternative method of exchange rate volatility and nominal exchange rate volatility. Our results are also intact under alternative robustness tests. The paper provides notable policy implications. Policymakers should be aware of the potential structural differences between micro and macro exports. Therefore, policymakers should also consider other aspects such as cross-border e-commerce when formulating economic policies on microexports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a quantitative trade model, this paper evaluates the trade and welfare effects of deep trade agreements in an application to China joining the RCEP and CPTPP. By feeding trade cost shocks from the changes in RTA deepness into the model, we find substantial gains from incorporating legal enforceability and dispute settlement provisions in both agreements. With the CPTPP being deeper than the RCEP, our counterfactual exercise of China joining the CPTPP shows that 69% of its welfare gains come from deepening RCEP provisions to the CPTPP level. For the RCEP members, the gains from deepening non-tariff-related core provisions are quantitatively important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research examines economic integration within the RCEP subset of 13 countries from 2000 to 2020, focusing on the impact of green energy and digital currency adoption. A 1% increase in sustainable energy deployment yields significant short-term (0.01%) and long-term (0.05%) improvements; while, a 1% rise in electronic banking transactions results in substantial short-term (0.19%) and long-term (0.26%) enhancements. A 1% GDP increase leads to notable short-term (0.32%) and long-term (0.59%) improvements, emphasizing economic strength’s importance. Improved internet access (1% increase) contributes to short-term (0.09%) and long-term (0.10%) economic integration. Conversely, a 1% increase in economic risk corresponds to a significant long-term reduction (0.33%) in economic integration. The research suggests crucial policy implications, emphasizing prioritizing green power generation, strengthening digital infrastructure, and promoting eco-friendly blockchain technologies for sustainable economic integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of coalitions on the economic costs of the 2012 Iran and 2014 Russia sanctions. By estimating and simulating a quantitative general equilibrium trade model under different coalition setups, we (1) dissect welfare losses for sanctions senders and target; (2) compare prospective coalition partners; (3) investigate 'optimal' coalitions that maximize payoff from sanctions; (4) provide bounds for sanctions potential, that is, the maximum welfare change attainable when sanctions are scaled vertically up to an embargo, and horizontally up to a global regime. Relative to unilateral action, we find that coalitions magnify welfare losses imposed while their impact on domestic welfare loss incurred depends on the design and sectoral dimension of sanctions. Hypothetical cooperation of large developing economies such as China additionally raises the deterrent force of coalitions. Additionally, we quantify transfers that equalize welfare losses across coalition members to further demonstrate asymmetries in the relative economic burden of sanctions. In all scenarios, we implement a novel Bayesian bootstrap procedure that generates confidence bands for simulation outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractThis study explores the impact of technical barriers to trade (TBTs) on China’s high-tech exports to the United States (US). We use the UN Comtrade database and the WTO/TBT-SPS Notification and Enquiry of China for the period 2003 to 2018 to quantify TBTs and estimate their effects. Overall, our findings support and are in line with the demand-enhancing promoting effects of TBTs on China’s high-tech exports, indicating that TBTs can act as a catalyst for quality upgrading. However, our findings also suggest the potential of a diminishing promoting effect, possibly caused by the negative impact from the newly imposed TBTs on exports. Our study highlights the need for policymakers and producers in China to carefully consider the impact of TBTs on their exports and invest in product upgrades to enhance their competitiveness in order to meet the increasing technical standards requirements of the US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Export product diversification accelerates economic growth by helping the nations to escape the commodity dependence trap, reducing the volatility of terms of trade, and stabilizing export revenues. Creative industries are the emerging and evolving industrial sectors that affect the export basket's composition of nations and its growth effects. In this paper, for the first time, we calculated the diversification level of creative products’ export basket using three measures including Theil and GINI inequality indices and Herfindahl–Hirschman concentration index for the top ten exporters including China, the US, France, Italy, the UK, Germany, India, Switzerland, Singapore, and the Netherlands. In addition, we analyzed the effects of diversification of creative products’ export basket on the economic growth of the countries over the period 2002–2020. Our results indicate the diversification level of the creative products’ basket in Switzerland, the US, France, and China decreased over the period, while for Germany and the Netherlands, it increased over recent years. For other countries, the indexes do not show significant fluctuations. By estimating a Barro-type growth regression model and also panel Granger non-causality test, we found creative products’ diversification acts as a pro-growth factor in the countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study empirically examines the influence of tourism development, renewable energy and green finance (GF) on high-quality economic development. Using data from 33 years of data in China from 1990 to 2022, this study applies Gregory Hansen analysis to investigate the relationships between tourism development (TD), renewable energy (RE), green finance, and high-quality economic development (HQED), and accepts a Spatial auto regressive. This study demonstrates that tourism development plays a crucial role in promoting high-quality economic growth by positively impacting all three of its components. Moreover, the utilization of renewable energy further enhances the beneficial influence of green finance on the promotion of superior economic growth (EG), while also impacting the correlation between foreign direct investment (FDI) and superior economic growth. Our study suggests three policy recommendations for policymakers based on these findings. These recommendations include strengthening the integration of tourism development with GF, establishing an environmental disclosure framework to oversee local governments in enhancing the effectiveness of GF, and implementing medium- and long-term favorable policies as an external intervention strategy to encourage green finance in the private sector.