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Purpose: The focus of this paper is to provide an assessment of the impact of imports from China on Indian manufacturing and capture the multifarious dimensions of India–China bilateral trade flows. By examining the comparative disadvantage imports (RCA<1), the paper critically examines their significance on India's industry output and performance and underlines factors beyond trade competitiveness. Design/methodology/approach: For examining the impact of India's manufacturing imports from China on industry performance, four stages of analysis is adopted. First, the imports with RCA <1 have been identified. For these, BRCA was also computed. Second, trends in industry performance associated with high imports from China. Third, for estimating the impact of imports on industry output, augmented production function was specified and estimated with imports from China as a potential determinant. And fourth, comparison of industry performance between India and China. Findings: The impact of imports from China on industry output is positive and significant. A 1% increase/decrease in the share of China in world imports will result in output increasing by 0.31%. The rise in imports from China seems to be on account of non-availability of necessary intermediate and capital goods domestically, thereby making these imports critical and complementary for production. This negates the threat perception of imports from China. Research limitations/implications: The paper recognizes the need for understanding the firm heterogeneity in import decisions and R&D intensity of imports. Across industries, the drivers for firms' decisions to import are "learning by importing' and "self-selection" (Camino-Magro et al., 2020). Also, another important dimension at the firm-level analysis is the elasticity of substitution between foreign and domestic inputs. If the elasticity of substitution is low then high import barriers will lead to reduction of domestic output. These firm-level issues are important for effective policy interventions. Practical implications: One, the inward looking focus of the industry which is exhibited in low export intensity will not provide the necessary impetus to propel the manufacturing sector to a higher technology frontier and translate the productivity gains to export competitiveness. Two, unless the domestic manufacturing is propelled from the current low/medium technology to high technology products, the current policy thrust on "self-reliance" cannot be realized. Originality/value: Analysis is based on manufacturing imports with RCA<1 from China thereby underlining factors beyond trade competitiveness not covered by RCA methodology. Complementing the quantitative analysis with economic policy developments in China and India and contrasting the same has provided insights into the real factors determining India–China bilateral trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impact of real exchange rate misalignment on Pakistan’s economic growth across different identified threshold levels. The research makes three significant contributions to the applied macroeconomics literature. First, it employs a dynamic regression model to assess the primary factors determining the equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER). Second, it examines the asymmetric impact of real exchange rate misalignment on Pakistan’s economic growth using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. Third, through a threshold regression model inspired by Hansen (Hansen, Econometrica 68:575–603, 2000), it identifies the threshold values of the Pakistani rupee that can either promote or hinder economic growth. The study concludes that the Pakistani rupee experienced significant periods of both undervaluation and overvaluation between 1982 and 2022. Moreover, the analysis establishes that overvaluation impedes Pakistan's economic growth, while undervaluation stimulates it. Our findings suggest that the undervaluation of the Pakistani rupee promotes economic growth up to an estimated threshold of a 10.025% deviation from ERER is reached. In contrast, an overvalued Pakistani rupee can stimulate economic growth up to a 9.346% threshold. The study implies that Pakistan should avoid both overvaluation and undervaluation beyond these identified thresholds to sustainably enhance economic growth. Additionally, it recommends that appropriate fiscal and monetary policies be pursued to maintain the exchange rate close to the equilibrium rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between political instability, economic growth, and Greece's overall stock market index (ASE) returns from 1970 to 2018. The aim is to measure and quantify the impact of political instability on economic growth and the overall stock market returns. The analysis includes six different variables as proxies that quantify political instability. A new Socio-Political Instability index is constructed from these variables by employing the principal component analysis. The empirical part employs GARCH, GARCH-M, Granger causality tests and OLS regressions. The paper provides new insightful results and a new measure of political instability for Greece. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growing importance of information and communication technology (ICT) in every facet of life motivated this study to examine the association between ICT, financial development and economic growth.

The present study examines the patterns of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Kazakhstan and draws comparisons with global trends. Based on statistical data spanning from 2000 to 2022, the study reveals that the growth of FDI in Kazakhstan has exhibited greater volatility and speed compared to developed nations. However, it is strongly associated with global FDI inflows and the growth of gross domestic product (GDP). This article aims to examine the patterns and determinants influencing FDI in Kazakhstan and to juxtapose these patterns with global trends. The main approach used in the study was systematic. The article’s contribution lies in its provision of novel insights into the dynamics of FDI in Kazakhstan and its correlation with economic growth. Furthermore, the article elucidates the various factors that contribute to the expansion of FDI in Kazakhstan, while also offering suggestions for the development of public policy in this domain. The article provides a comprehensive examination of FDI patterns in Kazakhstan, comparing them to global trends and identifying the factors that influence the dynamics of FDI. Furthermore, the article offers suggestions for expanding the economic base of Kazakhstan beyond its reliance on the oil and gas industry, enhancing focus on high-tech and innovative sectors, and enhancing the institutional framework.

As trade volume has exponentially increased over the past decades, we investigated the impact of free trade on relative poverty using data from 123 countries between 1995 and 2018. In this investigation, we used three variables for free trade, reflecting three aspects of free trade, trade openness, trade barrier or trade freedom, and trade policy, and two variables for relative poverty; the income share of the bottom 10% and the bottom 20%. When economic growth, polity and socioeconomic factors are controlled for, we found that (1) trade openness hurts the poor, increasing relative poverty regardless of industrialization, (2) trade freedom benefits the poor, decreasing relative poverty although the poor in industrial countries are hurt by trade freedom, and (3) WTO membership as a proxy for a trade policy is not statistically significant to the poor, although it seems beneficial to the poor. Given these results, we conclude that free trade lowers relative poverty, implying that the income shares of the bottoms 10% and 20% can increase more than by 0.9%p and 1.5%p, respectively, as free trade is promoted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As economies increasingly rely on digitalization, information and communication technologies (ICT) have become critical in shaping global economic transformations. This study explores the impact of ICT on export concentration and diversification in emerging markets and developing countries. Using a panel data set of 110 countries from 2000 to 2019, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator has been employed to assess the short- and long-term effects of ICT on these economies. To summarize information on various ICT channels, an ICT index has been constructed through principal component analysis (PCA). Additionally, the study examines the combined influence of ICT and human capital on export concentration. Findings indicate that ICT development significantly accelerates export diversification in developing countries, aligning their export structures with global standards. The interaction between ICT and human capital positively impacts export concentration, suggesting that higher levels of human capital enhance ICT's effects. Overall, ICT not only boosts human capital but also equips developing countries with the skills needed to enter new markets, develop high-value products, and compete globally. Consequently, governments in developing countries should prioritize investments in ICT infrastructure to lower trade costs, diversify exports, and promote sustainable economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the literature on financialized growth, two models are often presented as complementary but opposing: some countries drive their domestic demand through debt, while others grow on the basis of exports. In this research, we identify Sweden as a country that in the midst of the financial euphoria preceding 2008 combined these two models simultaneously. By identifying this "debt&export-led" growth model, we add richness and taxonomic complexity to the literature on financialized growth models. That said, this research contributes especially to the debate on the Swedish growth model, revealing a "hybrid" model that resulted from the interaction of two sets of factors: i) the presence of a successful exports sector, driven by a commensurate regulatory framework in a context of strong international demand; and ii) the manner in which financialization operated in Sweden, through a historic increase in private debt levels simultaneous with a partial dismantling of the welfare state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature on convergence in per-capita income across countries has not converged on a common concept of convergence. It may be within a country towards its own steady state or between countries. Between country convergence may be absolute convergence to the same steady state; conditional convergence to country specific steady states, functions of observed variables; or club convergence to different steady states. It may be measured by beta convergence; sigma convergence; or the presence of a common trend. This paper surveys the econometric issues involved in estimating the rate of convergence; testing for convergence; and specifying the unobserved steady state. The survey suggests that rather than there being different ways to measure a single concept, convergence, the different measures are measuring different things. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article seeks to investigate which demand component led and shaped the growth patterns of the US economy between 1954 and 2020 and comprehensive sub-periods relying on a proper allocation of imports. In doing so, it aims to establish whether the external sector can make a positive contribution to growth even in a context of negative net exports. Finally, it seeks to shed light on the reasons for higher or lower output growth, drawing particular attention to the engines of growth in each historical period. This article takes a novel approach in two ways: (1) it calculates and analyzes the decomposition of the contributions to growth for the US; (2) it divides the analysis into sub-periods and engines of growth, separately analyzing movements in the components of the multiplier, the dynamics of each component’s share with respect to GDP, and their respective growth rates. The empirical results show that the very low growth rates experienced between 2008 and 2020 are mainly explained by a minimal contribution of the government sector accompanied by weak demand from the private sector, highlighting the importance of growth-oriented public policies. These negative results have been only partially compensated by improvements in the external sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractAs secularism is increasing and religious diversity is regaining momentum worldwide, it is important to understand how systemic religious differences have influenced financial development in Africa. To this end, this study seeks to investigate the impact of religiosity on financial development in Africa by using freedom of religion to proxy religiosity and domestic credit to the private sector to proxy financial development covered from 2000 to 2020. The results from the panel quantile regression show that religiosity is negatively associated with the use of financial services across the quantile, whereas freedom of association, assembly, and civil society, and security and safety are marginally stronger within the lower, middle, and upper quantiles. The findings underscore that, fundamental human rights exert significant influence on financial development in Africa. Our findings contribute to literature by expanding knowledge on the role of personal freedom on economic activities hence, African governments and policymakers constitutionalize freedom as a fundamental human right, as freedom matters for financial development in Africa.

This paper explores the way that intellectual property rights (IPRs) protection as a moderator variable affects firm-level productivity gains through innovation (filing patents) and diffusion (importing goods). Applying the estimation method of conditional average treatment effect by Lee, Okui, and Whang (2017) to Chinese firm data, I show the graphic representation of the non-linearity that characterizes the heterogeneous average treatment effects of patenting and importing activities on firm productivity. The graphic results suggest that the productivity effect of patenting is positively influenced by local IPRs protection, while that of importing is initially negatively and subsequently positively affected by IPRs protection. I also find that overstrict protection of IPRs may diminish the productivity impact of both channels, and private-owned firms rely more on IPRs protection to enhance productivity through filing patents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last few decades, many economies in sub-Saharan Africa have experienced much faster economic growth than other parts of the world. However, many of these economies have not experienced significant poverty reduction. Several factors such as the quality of governance may limit the expected effects of economic growth on poverty. This paper examines the triangular relationship between extreme poverty, governance quality, and economic growth for the sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2010–2019. Compared to the work carried out until now, the novelty of this research lies in using the Panel Threshold Regression (PTR) and Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) models to determine the optimal level of governance index, which once attained, will make extreme poverty decrease with economic growth and governance quality. We found that the nexus between these three variables is nonlinear. Besides, results show that there exists a statistically negative relationship between governance and extreme poverty above the threshold level of 0.314 for the Global Governance Index (GGI) and 66.9 for the Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG), above which governance quality decreases extreme poverty. The results showed that the economic growth would begin to reduce extreme poverty once governance reaches a threshold level of 0.367 for GGI and 63.2 for IIAG. Better performance of governance also appears to improve economic growth and reduces poverty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study estimates fiscal multipliers and evaluates the effectiveness of fiscal policy in a large panel of 107 developing countries over the medium term. Using Jorda's local projection model, the study finds that fiscal multipliers are more effective during recessionary times than expansion. The findings reveal that fiscal balance and investment are more effective fiscal policy tools to stimulate output growth during recessionary times in developing countries. Quantitatively, the estimates suggest that fiscal multipliers tend to be as low as 0.16 and as large as 2.1 during times of recession. The baseline results broadly hold when fiscal policy shocks are subject to a battery of robustness check exercises in the medium-term framework. Also, the study reports heterogeneities in the size of fiscal multipliers with multipliers being larger and persistent in upper middle-income economies than lower middle-income economies. Furthermore, the study finds that tax-based measures as compared to expenditure-led policies are more stimulative during recessionary times. The study has important policy implications in terms of resorting to different fiscal tools in effectively boosting the output growth during recessionary times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents a model of North–South trade and development and investigates the growth rates of two countries under a trade pattern that the North specializes in investment goods while the South specializes in consumption goods. Many studies on North–South trade conclude that both countries' growth rates are equalized in the long run. Conversely, we show that if the ‘comparative advantage’ is explicitly considered, both countries' growth rates are not equalized in some cases and, hence, the South cannot catch up with the North even in the long run. Unlike many previous studies, we close the model by fixing each country's income distribution and making the price and quantity variables interdependent. Our results show that the growth rates of both countries are equalized in the long run if their trade patterns are fixed, irrespective of their comparative advantages, whereas their growth rates are not equalized in some cases if their trade patterns are determined by the comparative advantage principle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of financial development on the economic growth of jurisdictions with systemically important Islamic finance. Design/methodology/approach: The authors use several estimation methods. The primary analysis is based on the LSDVC method using a sample of 23 countries covering the period of 2000–2019. Findings: The findings suggest that the financial sector may not be a significant factor in determining economic growth, or that it may decrease it depending on the proxy used. These results are in line with recent studies and robust across different estimation specifications and methods used. Practical implications: Finance practitioners may reconsider the way they conduct their daily activities as their impact on economic growth is fading away. Similarly, policymakers should consider the role that financial development plays in economic growth alongside other factors that may influence its impact. It may be necessary to examine the moderating effects of institutional development on the relationship between finance and growth and consider the channels through which financial development can contribute to economic growth. Additionally, it would be useful to study the impact of Islamic finance on economic growth using different data sources. Originality/value: Although the topic has been explored using different data sets and focusing on different samples, it has not been explored considering the impact of Islamic finance development on economic growth. Given the global appeal of the Islamic finance industry, it is worth investigating its significance for economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the impact of green economic growth and renewable energy on food security in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The rationale for the study comes from the background that with a fast rate of growing population, there is a high pressure on natural resources, which often leads to resource depletion, being experienced across the globe. This study utilises panel data analysis consisting of 37 SSA countries that are members of the Official Development Assistance (ODA). Data was obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and World Development Indicators (WDI) for the period 2005–2022. To control for endogeneity, the study applies the system Generalised Method of Moments (GMM). The result shows that renewable energy and green economic growth have a positive significant impact on food security, though this impact is asymmetric across SSA sub-regions. On the other hand, industrialisation through its emissions, contributes negatively to food security. The implication is that SSA countries should focus on policies aimed at improving green economic growth and renewable energy consumption; while policies aimed at reducing the inefficient adoption of renewable electricity and discouraging industrialisation aimed at suppressing agricultural practices should be adopted.

In the recent past, geopolitical tension has taken center stage in defining macroeconomic dynamics. Given that, this study examines the impact of geopolitical risk on economic growth for 41 countries from 2000 to 2020. Our panel estimations using the feasible generalized least square (FGLS) technique show that geopolitical risk positively and significantly impacts economic growth. The results are consistent even after addressing endogeneity concerns using system GMM and auto-correlated explanatory growth variables using the PCSE estimation. Our results indicate that a percent increase in geopolitical risk increases economic growth to 3.3%. For the cohort of advanced and emerging economies, our result shows that the advanced economies can better mitigate any geopolitical shocks and experience favorable growth rates. On the other hand, emerging economies posit a detrimental impact of geopolitical risk on their economic growth, thereby indicating an asymmetric effect between the two sets of economies. Further, macroeconomic conditions and institutional factors play a significant role in determining the impact of geopolitical risk on the economic growth of 41 countries. In the presence of institutional factors like democracy and economic freedom, the relationship between geopolitical risk and economic growth remains intact. In the context of geopolitical risk, these institutional factors stimulate economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the long‐term causal impact of Abenomics, a comprehensive policy package aiming to revitalise the Japanese economy. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), the study assesses the effects of Abenomics across a variety of economic indicators. The findings reveal mixed impacts, with no evidence of Abenomics reducing budget deficits or boosting exports, but a positive effect on real GDP per capita paired with a reduction in the unemployment rate. The evidence regarding the effect on labor force participation rates is weaker, with primarily statistically insignificant increases observed. These results offer insights into the effectiveness of comprehensive policy interventions and provide lessons for policymakers globally in the midst of a global economic slowdown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]