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The Spatial Planning Act, which came into force in 1980, obliges Swiss municipalities to use urban land parsimoniously. However, they do not do so. To achieve parsimonious land use, the land within walking distance of good and very good public transport must be used intensively and in a locally balanced way, and it must provide a human-centered built environment and public realm. In this study, geodata was analyzed to generate and visualize projections of future urban land use for Greater Zurich. The projections consider a doubling of the number of residents and workers on the already zoned land. The intensity surfaces of two worker-resident ratio alternatives’ five public transport service level scenarios are compared with one another and with actual data for 2015. The projections show that Greater Zurich needs considerable intensification, especially of population, and redistribution of land use to achieve the intensity and level of local balance required for parsimonious urban land use. Therefore, future growth in residents and workers should be used to transform the built environment for parsimonious urban land use where it makes sense. To steer this transformation, planning practice must integrate spatial and traffic planning and so move towards context-dependent, conditional, dynamic, and integrative planning.

This paper explores the economic impacts of two related tracks of China's expected transformation—economic slowdown and rebalancing away from investment toward consumption—and estimates the spillovers for the rest of the world, with a special focus on Sub-Saharan African countries. The paper finds that an average annual slowdown of gross domestic product in China of 1 percent over 2016–30 is expected to result in a decline of gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa by 1.1 percent and globally by 0.6 percent relative to the past trends scenario by 2030. However, if China's transformation also entails substantial rebalancing, the negative income effects of the economic slowdown could be offset by the positive changes brought along by rebalancing through higher overall imports by China and positive terms of trade effects for its trading partners. If global supply responds positively to the shifts in relative prices and the new sources of consumer demand from China, a substantial rebalancing in China could have an overall favorable impact on the global economy. Economic growth could turn positive and higher on average, by 6 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa and 5.5 percent globally, as compared with the past trends scenario. Finally, rebalancing reduces the prevalence of poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa compared with the isolated negative effects of China's slowdown, which slightly increase the incidence of poverty. Overall, China's slowdown and rebalancing combined are estimated to increase gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa by 4.7 percent by 2030 and reduce poverty, but the extent of this varies by country.

The Malawi Urbanization Review aims to provide fresh perspectives on urbanization in Malawi, by analyzing the current and potential contribution of urbanization to long-term national development and the current institutional and financial capacity of local governments to manage the process. Analyses presented in this report are particularly timely as Malawi is planning for the coming half decade through the Malawi Growth and Development Strategy (MGDS) III (2016-2020). Malawi is urbanizing at a moderate rate and has a good chance of proactively managing the urbanization process. Opportunities may arise from a positive structural change that Malawi’s economy is undergoing, whereby the driver of growth and job creation moves from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors. Faster urbanization, with strong linkages with rural areas, can contribute further to deepening such structural change. To unlock the potential of urbanization as a catalyst for long-term economic development, it is necessary to strengthen the capacity of urban local governments to generate revenues and meet the key infrastructure and service needs in urban areas, which remain challenging even at the current rate of urbanization.

This paper re-examines the development implications of international migration focusing on two issues: how the costs and benefits of migration change over time, and the significance of South-South migration for development. First, the analysis finds that although greater migration could push down the wages of native workers of advanced countries in the short run, these wages eventually recover. This pattern would be mostly caused by the beneficial effect of additional labor on the real returns on capital and fostering faster capital formation. Additional South-North migration could favor capital income recipients and reduces labor income in host regions in the short run. In contrast, in sending countries, capital owners could experience lower incomes while wages rise. Globally, the welfare gains of new migrants could be expected to exceed the losses of old migrants by a wide margin. The remaining natives in sending countries could enjoy a net increase in remittances as well as an increase in labor income, although income from capital might decline. Second, in a hypothetical scenario with lower South-South migration, the implied losses of remittance income could lead to substantially lower welfare in developing countries. Although the wage differentials among developing countries tend to be smaller relative to their wage differentials with high-income countries, South-South migrants make substantial contributions to remittances.

A business plan competition is conducted to test whether survey instruments or panel judges are able to identify the fastest growing firms. Participants submitted six- to eight-page business plans and defended them before a three- or four-judge panel. Applicants are surveyed shortly after they applied and one and two years after the competition. Follow-up surveys are used to construct measures of enterprise growth and baseline surveys and panel scores to construct measures of enterprise growth potential. A survey measure of ability correlates strongly with future growth, but the panel scores add to predictive power even after controlling for ability and other survey variables. The survey questions have more power to explain the variance in growth. Participants presenting before the panel were given a chance to win customized management training. Fourteen months after the training, there is no positive effect of the training on growth of the business.

This paper examines the effects of output volatility on global sustainability in a dynamic panel data model allowing for error cross section dependence. It finds that output volatility impedes the process of sustainable development. It further suggests that output volatility exerts a significant effect on natural resources depletion, a key element of sustainability measure, via a financial development channel with respect to liquidity liability ratio. It also shows that lower income countries, lower energy intensity countries and lower trade share countries are in general more vulnerable to macroeconomic volatility or shocks. The findings highlight the interaction between global financial markets and the wider economy as a key factor influencing the sustainable development path, and have significant implications for the conduct of macroeconomic and environmental policies in an integrated global green economy.

Using household data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, this paper assesses how aging affects saving. To overcome a systematic bias against the life-cycle hypothesis of survey data, the paper estimates how the age profile of saving changes when the micro data are corrected to account for the contribution to pensions (as additional saving) and receipt of benefits from pensions (as dissaving). With these corrections, the Russian data support the life-cycle hypothesis. A small decline in the aggregate saving rate, because of aging, can thus be expected. However, since aggregate saving rates result from a combination of age and cohort effects, this decline may not be significant. When extrapolating the rising trends of the cohort effect, the fact that younger generations are earning and saving more than older generation at the same age, the projection shows a growing aggregate saving rate. The changes in saving of future cohorts, for example because of changes in the growth rate of the economy, can affect the aggregate saving rate even more than aging.

The sustainability and survival of any organization invariably depend on performance. Performance measurement and management in right and dynamic way are the essential steps for survival, which is sustainable – real success. The traditional practice involves conventional thinking about performance metrics measuring financial performances like Net Profit. Literature survey reveals there is a scope and need to go beyond such traditional measurement and management. Therefore scope for using innovative technique and empowerment has been explored for the socio-economic potential sector in particular. The present work is in that direction to develop, exhibit and demonstrate a new technique called as Business Performance Evaluation Technique to come out with Performance Index. To start with, through survey a bank of key factor to success was created. Thereafter, Stake Holders in 360 degree manner had the option to group them in four perspectives [1.Continuation Desired, 2.Improvement Needed, 3.Experimentation Sought and 4.Challenges for Sustainability], then fixing of success indicator, weightage and target value for all factors. Validation was done involving 10 Stake Holders who could work out Performance Index for each perspective and in totality. Correlation amongst gap in % Net Profit & Performance Index in said four perspectives also studied and reported to assess the relevancy of the model. Next exercise was carried out where in metrics have been grouped in another four perspectives [1. Financial, 2. Customer, 3. Learning & Growth and 4. International Business Process] as per balanced scorecard concept. Gap in Performance Index in said four perspectives found out and similar correlation with gap in % Net Profit studied and reported for the similar purpose as well to compare amongst two way grouped perspectives. The study and analysis reveals how the new concepts can supplement traditional financial measures and enable companies/ intending one to track performance, monitor progress and manage intangible assets needed for future growth. The reported research is: (i) an innovation in performance measurement as evident from applications of novel technique, (ii) an empowerment in management where grass root level Stake Holder like artisans could participate and (iii) an approach to explore a sector which is socio-economic potential.

This paper examines whether domestic output growth helps attract capital inflows and, in turn, capital inflows help boost output growth in a set of 38 Sub-Saharan African countries. Using a two-step approach to address reverse causality and omitted variable issues, the paper finds that output growth in countries in Sub-Saharan Africa does not attract capital inflows. However, aid and foreign direct investment inflows enhance growth, while sovereign debt inflows do not. A 1 percent increase in the level of real aid inflows raises growth of real output per capita by 0.022 percentage point. For foreign direct investment inflows, the figure is 0.002 percentage point.

Without appropriate policies to address the expected rise in the care burden, population aging can reduce womens access to economic opportunities and decelerate future growth, thereby threatening the agenda of poverty reduction and shared prosperity in Europe and Central Asia. Based on the analysis of existing and newly collected quantitative and qualitative data, several key policy recommendations can be formulated for policymakers consideration: (a) improvement of the accessibility, affordability, and quality of formal childcare and eldercare options offers a way to address challenges related to excessive reliance on informal care and to capitalize on current opportunities; (b) the design of future demographic, health, and education policy reforms should take into account any potential effects on informal care providers; (c) care leave (both paid and unpaid) can shape families choices about care and market work; (d) flexible work arrangements can function as effective alternatives to unpaid leave; and (e) care-related allowances (both in-kind and cash) aim to promote quality care for children and elders and recognize the work of caregivers but may have negative repercussions on caregivers labor force outcomes. Increased recognition of the critical role of care in aging societies and careful review of the policy environment related to formal and informal care provision can help governments to harness the full potential of demographics, thereby promoting poverty reduction and shared prosperity.

This is the tenth year that the paying taxes indicator has been part of the World Bank Doing Business project. The journey over the period of the study has been an eventful and interesting one and the economic backdrop continues to present a challenging environment for governments as they consider their future fiscal policies. Globalization, the march of technological change, changing demographic patterns and the persistent challenges that continue around climate change and the environment all come together to generate a turbulent mix of issues which have a significant impact on fiscal policy and the associated tax systems. Against this backdrop, this year the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has put forward proposals for changing the international tax rules to modernize them for today s globalized business and to address concerns over base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS). It is apparent that these proposals are already changing the way some tax authorities apply existing rules, leading to new and increased uncertainty for business, at least in the short term. Alongside all of this however there are two simple, mutually supportive objectives for governments; to ensure that there are sufficient public revenues for the future, to lay a foundation for sustained improvements in productivity, while at the same time incentivising investment and economic growth. This year the authors have also focused more on the compliance aspects of the information that authors collect through the study. Stable tax systems and strong tax administrations are important for businesses, helping them to operate in an environment where the tax treatment of transactions is predictable, and where governments operate transparently. The paying taxes study provides an unrivalled global database which supports an ongoing research program.

This is the eleventh edition of the Kenya Economic Update. The special focus of this update examines the structural factors underpinning the poor performance of the manufacturing sector. Drawing on recent firm-level data from the 2010 Industrial Census and the 2013 Enterprise Survey. It investigates the extent to which the sector's lack of dynamism reflects problems in Kenya's business environment, which compares poorly to regional neighbors' on several manufacturing-relevant dimensions. The report has four main messages: First, Kenya begins 2015 in a sound economic position. After growing an estimated 5.4 percent in 2014, its economy is poised to be among the fastest growing in the region, with growth projected at 6.0 percent in 2015, 6.6 percent in 2016, and 7.0 percent in 2017. Second, the external sector remains weak and vulnerable, as import growth continue to outpace export growth and short-term flows finance the current account deficit. The large deficit points to underlying structural weaknesses in Kenya's economy, which need to be addressed. Third, Kenya needs to increase the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector so that it can grow, export, and create much-needed jobs. As a share of GDP, Kenya's manufacturing sector has been stagnant in recent years, and it has lost international market share; lastly, the weak business environmentis a key constraint for the manufacturing sector. Obstacles to doing business affect this sector more than many others because manufacturing needs access to capital for investments, infrastructure to import inputs and export and distribute finished products, affordable and reliable electricity to produce, labor to man operations, and fair and streamlined regulations and trade policies that allow firms to compete.

Part of the rationale for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was that it will increase trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, creating jobs and reducing migration to the United States (U.S.). Since poor data on illegal migration to the United States make direct measurement difficult, data on migration within Mexico, where census data permit careful analysis, are used instead to evaluate the mechanism behind predictions on migration to the United States. Specifications are provided for migration within Mexico, incorporating measures of cost of living, amenities, and networks. Contrary to much of the literature, labor market variables enter very significantly and as predicted once possible credit constraint effects are controlled for. Greater exposure to FDI and trade deters outmigration, with the effects working partly through the labor market. Finally, some tentative inferences are presented about the impact of increased FDI on Mexico- U.S. migration. On average, a doubling of FDI inflows leads to a 1.5 to 2 percent drop in migration.

This study investigates the relationship between leverage andfuture corporate growth, using aten-yearsampleofIndonesianfirms. Theleverageeffectisfoundtobeinsignificantfortheoverall sample, unlike the earlierfindings by Lang et al. (1996) for firms in a well-developed market such as the U.S. However, when firms are sorted by size and Tobins q, only the small low-q firms indicate a statistically significant negative effect of leverage on future corporate growth. This is evidence consistent with the fact that the Indonesian economy has been dominated by large firms which have better access to capital markets, and also that small firms with high growth potential do not suffer from debt-overhang, although smallfirms with low growth potential do.

This background paper was prepared for the East Asia Pacific aging report. The East Asia and Pacific region grew at an unparalleled rate in the past 50 years. This economic boom is partly attributable to unprecedented demographic changes in East Asia during this period. But demographics are only part of the story. The size of the economic bonus or burden which results from population aging depends on how policy influences labor force participation, savings, human capital accumulation and total factor productivity.

This strategic environmental assessment (SEA) is a technical piece intended to assist in the current and future identification of priority industrial pollutants and economic instruments to minimize industrial waste. This industrial sector SEA is one of six pieces of technical support envisioned by the Himachal Pradesh (HP) inclusive green growth (IGG) development policy loan (DPL) to fill knowledge gaps and strengthen operational success of the DPL. The DPL acknowledges that industrial development is an important economic driver within HP, and that such development must be consistent with maintaining the integrity of other natural resource assets on which human health depend. The general objectives of the SEA study are: (i) to assist in identification of priority pollutants and industries; (ii) to review existing institutional structures that address these pollutants; (iii) to identify and recommend potential reform options through the introduction of new policy approaches; and (iv) to identify complementary institutional support necessary to implement such a program. The SEA was undertaken from April to December 2013 based on secondary data collection, existing literature, various consultative meetings with key stakeholders, and diagnostic analyses of this information. The purpose of the consultations was to discuss the findings, issues, and preliminary directions suggested by the desk reviews, and to initiate a work plan for amassing additional information. The SEA has included participatory approaches to ensure that presented policy changes are designed and implemented in a way that is responsive to the different segments of HP society. This report is presented in three parts. Part one forms a foundation for focusing subsequent diagnostic work by providing more extensive detail on the institutional context, pollution situation, health and environmental linkages, and opportunities for using economic instruments. Part two performs additional diagnostic analyses to inform the core recommendations relating to options for new economic instruments, institutional reforms, and capacity building; these recommendations are presented in part three.

This report looks at the growth poles policy in Romania to determine ways to increase its effectiveness and efficiency for the next programming cycle (2014-2020). The growth poles policy in Romania has been initiated in 2008, as a means to support a balanced economic development of the country, while still targeting investments to maximize economic impact. A total of seven growth poles have been designated and are currently supported as such, via an integrated development plan designed for each. In an effort respond to all the above the Romanian Ministry of Regional Development and Public Administration (MRDPA) has engaged with the World Bank in a broader advisory services partnership implemented between 2012-2013. The current review is a result of this joint work. The report is grouped into three main parts. The first part sets out the context of analysis, including a brief presentation of growth poles policy objectives as well as the European policy context, and conceptual debates in which it is framed. The second part includes a set of recommendations regarding the growth poles policy for the next programming cycle (2014-2020). The third part includes an analysis of each of the growth poles, presenting specific recommendations for each.

Female labor force participation rates in urban India between 1987 and 2011 are surprisingly low and have stagnated since the late 1980s. Despite rising growth, fertility decline, and rising wages and education levels, married women's labor force participation hovered around 18 percent. Analysis of five large cross-sectional micro surveys shows that a combination of supply and demand effects have contributed to this stagnation. The main supply side factors are rising household incomes and husband's education as well as the falling selectivity of highly educated women. On the demand side, the sectors that draw in female workers have expanded least, so that changes in the sectoral structure of employment alone would have actually led to declining participation rates.

The Central America region is a small market. The region contains around 43 million inhabitants (0.6 percent of total world population) who generate around 0.25 percent of the world's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). While the region has successfully embarked on a regional integration agenda and has strong commercial links with the US, extra-regional trade-mainly with large fast-growing emerging economies-remains a challenge. Export performance is analyzed along three dimensions that, together, give a fairly comprehensive picture of competitiveness: 1) the composition, orientation and growth of the export basket; 2) the degree of export diversification across products and markets; and 3) the level of sophistication and quality of their main exports. This analysis allows exports dynamics at the different margins of trade (intensive, extensive, and quality) to be evaluated and individual countries' to be benchmarked with peers in the Central American region. The results of this report allow policy makers to identify key areas to explore in the overall discussion of export competitiveness in the Central American region. This paper relates to the literature on challenges and opportunities that trade liberalization can bring to the Central American region. Much of the recent literature focuses on the role of the free trade agreement negotiated by Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua, with the US.

Tajikistan has successfully emerged from the global economic crisis. Economic activity was strong, driven by growth in industrial production and services. Inward remittances remain a key factor in stimulating domestic consumption. Although inflation returned to single digits, it continues to be susceptible to higher global prices of key imports. The country remains vulnerable to a range of external shocks, and economic outcomes depend critically on regional trade, transport, and investment policies. Concerns remain with respect to weaknesses in the financial sector. Structural reforms continue, and transparency has increased. The outlook is generally positive, but chronic risks remain.

Tajikistan is one of the world's most remittance-dependent economies, receiving net remittance inflows equivalent to approximately 40 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Falling remittance inflows was one of the main transmission channels through which the 2008-09 global economic crisis adversely impacted the economy. Conversely, the pickup in growth since 2009 can also be traced to the rebound in remittance inflows (primarily from Russia, where more than 90 percent of Tajik migrants work), which reached 42 percent of GDP in 2010 and an estimated 40 percent of GDP in 2011. As the World Bank's 2011 country economic memorandum has argued, future growth in Tajikistan will depend crucially on increasing efficiency and raising private investment rates. Remittances are likely to grow more slowly than the earlier trend over the last 5-6 years, but could nonetheless be a major contributor to future growth if more go into private investment than in the past.

Botswana has been one of the most successful countries in the developing world over the last 40 years by many measures. Incomes have grown at a sustained pace, poverty has fallen, and the citizenry has become more educated. To be sure, poverty and income inequalities remain a problem, but rising standards of living have meant a better life for this generation of Batswana than any before it. The question facing the country leadership is whether this commendable performance can be sustained into the next generation. There are clouds on the horizon that cannot be ignored. Diamond earnings, the life blood of decades of prosperity, have flattened out. In per capita terms they are falling. Moreover, because revenues from diamonds going to the public sector have been falling for more than a decade, a growth model predicated upon an ever expanding state presence is not viable. Diamond earnings accruing to the state for subsequent redistribution have peaked. Employment and wages in the public sector have reached their natural limits as a share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP); recycling revenues from mining into the private sector, either directly or through the financial sector, has been inefficient with low social returns; and redistributive mechanisms to support social safety nets are also likely be approaching their limits. The country confronts the challenge of looking for new sources of growth outside of government.

Almost four years since the onset of the global financial and economic crisis, unemployment and underemployment remain stubbornly high in many G20 countries, and many workers remain trapped in low paid, often informal, jobs with little social protection. Job creation has been anemic in many countries, too slow to fully reabsorb the mass of unemployed and underemployed or, particularly in some emerging market economies, to keep pace with labour force growth and the pressures of rural-urban migration. This raises concerns about the long-term negative effects on human capital, growing inequality and lower future output growth. The political pressures are high, and the risk of a drift towards protectionist measures aimed at 'keeping jobs at home' cannot be ignored. While there is substantial variation in national contexts, G20 countries can help minimize these risks through collective and collaborative work aimed at identifying and implementing credible policy reforms that will boost job creation, employment and the quality of jobs. The report aims at providing a preliminary review of countries' experiences against the backdrop of an evolving economic outlook and could form the basis of a more in-depth analysis, should Ministers request it. Improving labour market outcomes involves several challenges relating to both the quantity and quality aspects of job creation. There is a need in all countries to harness growth to generate labour market opportunities that correspond to labour force growth.

An appropriate rural investment climate (RIC) is essential for rural businesses to be successful and generate employment and income in their communities. Improving the investment climate could facilitate income-generation activities in both farm and nonfarm sectors, thus reducing rural poverty. Nonfarm sector focused growth, combined with agricultural growth, and has been shown by Delgado et al. (1998) to have a significant impact on the local economy through the generation of employment and income. This study is the first to focus on both farm and nonfarm enterprises in its 2010 surveys of RIC in Yemen, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, and Mozambique unlike six previous RIC assessment (RICA) pilot projects that focused only on nonfarm enterprises. This report assesses the weaknesses and strengths of all RIC components in farm and nonfarm enterprises of the four countries surveyed, and recommends measures to address the weaknesses. The report identifies similar business obstacles for farm and nonfarm enterprises and four critical areas of the RIC to be improved. The results of the RICA are based on analyses of obstacles perceived by rural entrepreneurs and on assessments by RIC indicators, enterprise entry and exit, and enterprise performance. To have maximum synergy effects, farm and nonfarm enterprises should be promoted together.

In the wake of the revolution, Tunisian society is currently undergoing a significant transformation. In late 2011, the country's first representative government in more than three decades was formed, as the Constituent Assembly was seated. Hundreds of legitimate candidates ran in an election that was free, fair, and enjoyed nearly 90 percent participation by eligible voters. 'Tunisia: from revolutions to institutions,' published one year after the exile of Ben Ali, seeks to describe the factors driving this transformation, examining how specific elements of society have changed, or not changed, in the post-revolutionary period. Information and communication technologies (ICTs), which played a central role in the lead-up to the revolution as well as the revolution itself, have continued to influence rapid changes in the past year. This report charts the application of these technologies by citizens, civil society, entrepreneurs, and government stakeholders. It also identifies openings to capitalize on technology's ability to improve governance, expand economic opportunity, and encourage social cohesion.

Bridging the Atlantic is a descriptive study of Brazil's involvement with counterparts in Sub-Saharan Africa through knowledge exchange, trade, and investments. The objective of the study is to understand these relations better with the intent to forge concrete and mutually beneficial partnerships between Brazil and Sub-Saharan Africa. Brazil and Sub-Saharan Africa are natural partners, with at one point a shared geography and later a shared history. Since the turn of the twentieth century, Africa has become one of the major fronts of Brazil's international agenda. Africa is rapidly changing and Brazil has expressed growing interest in supporting and taking part in African development. The study includes a narrative of the shared history between Brazil and Africa, as well as a description of Brazilian foreign direct investment and trade with Africa. It ends with recommendations made by the World Bank to strengthen the cooperation between Brazil and Sub-Saharan Africa.

International financial markets remain turbulent, dominated by the political and economic challenges of the Euro zone debt crisis and signs of weakening global growth. However, to date, although portfolio outflows have been seen, Indonesia's domestic economy continues to perform strongly. The economy remains relatively well-positioned to weather future external shocks and steps have been taken to improve crisis preparedness, for example, by increasing the flexibility of any fiscal response. The Euro zone continues to grapple with the policy responses to stem the crisis. The political and policy responses to the Euro zone debt crisis have been evolving on an almost daily basis, influencing global financial markets, risk appetite and capital flows to emerging economies such as Indonesia. Increased funding stress for European financial institutions was followed by a coordinated announcement of liquidity swap arrangements by central banks including the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. In addition to putting in place policies to address the near-term impacts of any future shocks, with a protracted weakness in external demand likely, it is an opportune time to move forward with investments and reforms which can enhance domestic productivity and growth and attract more stable and longer-term capital flows. Indeed, the 2012 budget again significantly boosts capital expenditure, although ongoing budget execution challenges could hinder the effectiveness of the increased allocation on infrastructure improved infrastructure and investment climate can help to promote further the positive recent performance of Indonesia's manufacturing sector, after its weakness in the decade following the Asian crisis. The scope for productivity growth within manufacturing and other sectors through technology adoption and adaption can also be enhanced by further improvements in the quality of education of the labor force and the institutional environment for research and development.

The recovery of global growth that started in 2010 began to weaken in 2011. During the first half the falloff was linked to the Tohoku nuclear disaster in Japan and high oil prices, but by the end of July, temporary effects from Tohoku were starting to fade and global industrial production was rising. However, since August the global economy has come under increasing stress from the sovereign debt problems in Europe, anemic growth in the US, and a slowdown in China and other main emerging markets. The latest leading indicators and forecasts point to a further slowdown in growth in Europe. Meanwhile, risks remain of a double-dip recession in the US and sharper slowdown in the large emerging economies. Near term developments depend critically on factors that are largely beyond the control of governments. As this is being written, leaders of the major European Union (EU) countries are still seeking to implement a set of credible policies to establish an orderly process for managing sovereign debt in Greece, to prevent risks from spreading to other economies in the euro zone, to recapitalize banks affected by likely sovereign debt write downs, and to establish a more unified and effective fiscal framework for euro zone (EZ) states. Uncertainty over their ability to successfully conclude this process, as well a series of ratings downgrades, stock market volatility and uncertainty over US deficit policies have shaken investor and business confidence and kept consumers wary. Most forecasters have already reduced their projections for global growth in the US and the EU by a percent or more.

Afghanistan's economy is growing strongly. The growth drivers in recent years have been above-average agricultural production, strong growth in construction and transportation, and security spending enabled by large aid flows, especially in FY2009/10. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth reached 8.4 percent in FY2010/11. Afghanistan's fiscal position is strengthening. In the last three years revenues grew by an average of 34 percent p.a., thanks to improvements in customs and tax administration. Larger increases are expected once mining operations and with the introduction of a value-added tax in FY2014/15. However, government expenditures will also increase in the coming years due to higher security spending, the roll out of pay-and-grading reforms for the civil service, rising recurrent obligations from large donor-supported projects (including those financed outside of the core budget) and the fiscal costs of the Kabul Bank bail-out. The first phase of the handover of security responsibilities to Afghan national security forces in six locations has been completed.

Inclusive growth (IG) analysis involves analyzing the available data in a country to determine the best course of action for accelerating growth and or improving the distribution of the opportunities and benefits from the growth process. In economies in which international migration is a significant trend, that determination may be especially challenging. The international migration phenomenon can contribute to (or detract from) growth and its distribution through myriad number of complex and sometimes divergent channels, and these effects can change substantially over time. The ability to analyze these impacts, however, is often significantly handicapped by a lack of appropriate data. Moreover, because the migration decision is inherently a private decision made by households in the best interest of their welfare, determining the policy conclusions based on the results of inclusive growth analysis is often unclear. Governments are rightfully wary of interfering with the migration process. This paper examines the issue of international migration in inclusive growth. The aim is to provide the practitioners of inclusive growth diagnostics a useful framework for assessing the nature of the international migration phenomenon, and to highlight the key tools utilized in evaluating its current and potential impact on shared growth.