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1. Empathic Accuracy and Cognitive and Affective Empathy in Young Adults with and without Autism Spectrum Disorder

Author

McKenzie, K., Russell, A., Golm, D., and Fairchild, G.

Abstract

This study investigated whether young adults with ASD (n = 29) had impairments in Cognitive Empathy (CE), Affective Empathy (AE) or Empathic Accuracy (EA; the ability to track changes in others' thoughts and feelings) compared to typically-developing individuals (n = 31) using the Empathic Accuracy Task (EAT), which involves watching narrators recollecting emotionally-charged autobiographical events. Participants provided continuous ratings of the narrators' emotional intensity (indexing EA), labelled the emotions displayed (CE) and reported whether they shared the depicted emotions (AE). The ASD group showed deficits in EA for anger but did not differ from typically-developing participants in CE or AE on the EAT. The ASD group also reported lower CE (Perspective Taking) and AE (Empathic Concern) on the Interpersonal Reactivity Index, a self-report questionnaire.

Published
2022
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2. Artrópodos hematófagos del Río Raposo, Valle, Colombia: III - Tabanidae Artrópodos hematófagos del Río Raposo, Valle, Colombia: III – Tabanidae

Author

Lee V. H., Fairchild G. B., and Barreto Pablo

Subjects
Artrópodos hematófagos, Tabanidae, Pangoniini, Scionini, Chrysopini, Diachlorini, Tabanini, Science, Zoology, QL1-991, Botany, QK1-989
Abstract

Durante los estudios de artrópodos hematófagos y arbovirus de la Costa del Pacífico de Colombia, particularmente en la región del Río Raposo, para los dipteros de la familia Tabanidae se registraron 44 especies, de las cuales 39 son conocidas; las 5 restantes, todavía innominadas, pueden ser nuevas. En la familia hay representantes de las tribus Pangoniini, Scionini, Chrysopini, Diachlorini y Tabanini. La tribu Diachlorini es lamás rica, con 12 géneros y 23 especies, mientras que Tabanini tiene solamente 1 género, con 12 especies. Por primera vez se informa en Colombia la presencia de 13 especies. De los 44 representantes en la lista, 36 son conocidos en Panamá y 16 en Ecuador. La inoculacion en ratones de 3.090 ejemplares, repartidos en 370 grupos, que corresponden a 11 especies conocidas y a 3 sin identificar, es negativa para aislamiento de virus. Se hacen algunos comentarios sobre la ocurrencia y distribución de las especies colectadas.Thirty-nine known and 5 as yet undetermined or new species of the Family Tabanidae are recorded from the Río Raposo on the Pacific coastal plain of Colombia. The tribes Pangoniini, Scionini, Chrysopini, Diachlorini and Tabanini are represented in the collections. Diachlorini is the most common tribe with 12 genera and 23 species, whereas Tabanini is represented by only 1 genus with 12 species. Thirteen species are reported from Colombia for the first time. Of the 44 representatives listed, 36 are known from Panamá and 16 from Ecuador. A total of 3.090 individuals in 370 pools of 14 species were inoculated into mice with no virus isolations made. Comments are made on the distribution and occurrence of the species collected.

Published
1969

3. A globally-applicable disease ontology for biosurveillance; Anthology of Biosurveillance Diseases (ABD)

Author

Daughton, A. R., Priedhorsky, R., Fairchild, G., Generous, N., Hengartner, A., Abeyta, E., Velappan, N., Lillo, A., Stark, K., and Deshpande, A.

Subjects
Quantitative Biology - Quantitative Methods, Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence, Computer Science - Digital Libraries, Computer Science - Information Retrieval
Abstract

Biosurveillance, a relatively young field, has recently increased in importance because of its relevance to national security and global health. Databases and tools describing particular subsets of disease are becoming increasingly common in the field. However, a common method to describe those diseases is lacking. Here, we present the Anthology of Biosurveillance Diseases (ABD), an ontology of infectious diseases of biosurveillance relevance.

Published
2016

9. Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Author

Sherratt, K., Gruson, H., Grah, R., Johnson, H., Niehus, R., Prasse, B., Sandmann, F., Deuschel, J., Wolffram, D., Abbott, S., Ullrich, A., Gibson, G., Ray, E. L., Reich, N. G., Sheldon, D., Wang, Y., Wattanachit, N., Wang, L., Trnka, J., Obozinski, G., Sun, T., Thanou, D., Pottier, L., Krymova, E., Meinke, J. H., Barbarossa, M. V., Leithäuser, N., Mohring, J., Schneider, J., Wlazlo, J., Fuhrmann, J., Lange, B., Rodiah, I., Baccam, P., Gurung, H., Stage, S., Suchoski, B., Budzinski, J., Walraven, R., Villanueva, I., Tucek, V., Smíd, M., Zajícek, M., Pérez Alvarez, C., Reina, B., Bosse, N. I., Meakin, S., Castro, L., Fairchild, G., Michaud, I., Osthus, D., Alaimo Di Loro, P., Maruotti, A., Eclerová, V., Kraus, A., Kraus, D., Pribylova, L., Dimitris, B., Li, M. L., Saksham, S., Dehning, J., Mohr, S., Priesemann, V., Redlarski, G., Bejar, B., Ardenghi, G., Parolini, N., Ziarelli, G., Bock, Wolfgang, Heyder, S., Hotz, T., E. Singh, D., Guzman-Merino, M., Aznarte, J. L., Moriña, D., Alonso, S., Alvarez, E., López, D., Prats, C., Burgard, J. P., Rodloff, A., Zimmermann, T., Kuhlmann, A., Zibert, J., Pennoni, F., Divino, F., Català, M., Lovison, G., Giudici, P., Tarantino, B., Bartolucci, F., Jona Lasinio, G., Mingione, M., Farcomeni, A., Srivastava, A., Montero-Manso, P., Adiga, A., Hurt, B., Lewis, B., Marathe, M., Porebski, P., Venkatramanan, S., Bartczuk, R., Dreger, F., Gambin, A., Gogolewski, K., Gruziel-S?omka, M., Krupa, B., Moszynski, A., Niedzielewski, K., Nowosielski, J., Radwan, M., Rakowski, F., Semeniuk, M., Szczurek, E., Zieli?ski, J., Kisielewski, J., Pabjan, B., Kheifetz, Y., Kirsten, H., Scholz, M., Biecek, P., Bodych, M., Filinski, M., Idzikowski, R., Krueger, T., Ozanski, T., Bracher, J., Funk, S., Sherratt, K., Gruson, H., Grah, R., Johnson, H., Niehus, R., Prasse, B., Sandmann, F., Deuschel, J., Wolffram, D., Abbott, S., Ullrich, A., Gibson, G., Ray, E. L., Reich, N. G., Sheldon, D., Wang, Y., Wattanachit, N., Wang, L., Trnka, J., Obozinski, G., Sun, T., Thanou, D., Pottier, L., Krymova, E., Meinke, J. H., Barbarossa, M. V., Leithäuser, N., Mohring, J., Schneider, J., Wlazlo, J., Fuhrmann, J., Lange, B., Rodiah, I., Baccam, P., Gurung, H., Stage, S., Suchoski, B., Budzinski, J., Walraven, R., Villanueva, I., Tucek, V., Smíd, M., Zajícek, M., Pérez Alvarez, C., Reina, B., Bosse, N. I., Meakin, S., Castro, L., Fairchild, G., Michaud, I., Osthus, D., Alaimo Di Loro, P., Maruotti, A., Eclerová, V., Kraus, A., Kraus, D., Pribylova, L., Dimitris, B., Li, M. L., Saksham, S., Dehning, J., Mohr, S., Priesemann, V., Redlarski, G., Bejar, B., Ardenghi, G., Parolini, N., Ziarelli, G., Bock, Wolfgang, Heyder, S., Hotz, T., E. Singh, D., Guzman-Merino, M., Aznarte, J. L., Moriña, D., Alonso, S., Alvarez, E., López, D., Prats, C., Burgard, J. P., Rodloff, A., Zimmermann, T., Kuhlmann, A., Zibert, J., Pennoni, F., Divino, F., Català, M., Lovison, G., Giudici, P., Tarantino, B., Bartolucci, F., Jona Lasinio, G., Mingione, M., Farcomeni, A., Srivastava, A., Montero-Manso, P., Adiga, A., Hurt, B., Lewis, B., Marathe, M., Porebski, P., Venkatramanan, S., Bartczuk, R., Dreger, F., Gambin, A., Gogolewski, K., Gruziel-S?omka, M., Krupa, B., Moszynski, A., Niedzielewski, K., Nowosielski, J., Radwan, M., Rakowski, F., Semeniuk, M., Szczurek, E., Zieli?ski, J., Kisielewski, J., Pabjan, B., Kheifetz, Y., Kirsten, H., Scholz, M., Biecek, P., Bodych, M., Filinski, M., Idzikowski, R., Krueger, T., Ozanski, T., Bracher, J., and Funk, S.

Abstract

Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast mod

Published
2023
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10. Action initiation and punishment learning differ from childhood to adolescence while reward learning remains stable

Author

Pauli, R., Brazil, I.A., Kohls, G., Klein-Flügge, M.C., Rogers, J.C., Dikeos, D.G., Dochnal, R., Fairchild, G., Fernández-Rivas, A., Herpertz-Dahlmann, B., Hervas, A., Konrad, K., Popma, A., Stadler, C., Freitag, C.M., De Brito, S.A., Lockwood, P.L., Pauli, R., Brazil, I.A., Kohls, G., Klein-Flügge, M.C., Rogers, J.C., Dikeos, D.G., Dochnal, R., Fairchild, G., Fernández-Rivas, A., Herpertz-Dahlmann, B., Hervas, A., Konrad, K., Popma, A., Stadler, C., Freitag, C.M., De Brito, S.A., and Lockwood, P.L.

Abstract

Contains fulltext : 292232.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access), Theoretical and empirical accounts suggest that adolescence is associated with heightened reward learning and impulsivity. Experimental tasks and computational models that can dissociate reward learning from the tendency to initiate actions impulsively (action initiation bias) are thus critical to characterise the mechanisms that drive developmental differences. However, existing work has rarely quantified both learning ability and action initiation, or it has relied on small samples. Here, using computational modelling of a learning task collected from a large sample (N = 742, 9-18 years, 11 countries), we test differences in reward and punishment learning and action initiation from childhood to adolescence. Computational modelling reveals that whilst punishment learning rates increase with age, reward learning remains stable. In parallel, action initiation biases decrease with age. Results are similar when considering pubertal stage instead of chronological age. We conclude that heightened reward responsivity in adolescence can reflect differences in action initiation rather than enhanced reward learning.

Published
2023

11. Impaired punishment learning in conduct disorder

Author

Elster, E.M., Pauli, R., Baumann, S., De Brito, S.A., Fairchild, G., Freitag, C.M., Konrad, K., Roessner, V., Brazil, I.A., Lockwood, P.L., Kohls, G., Elster, E.M., Pauli, R., Baumann, S., De Brito, S.A., Fairchild, G., Freitag, C.M., Konrad, K., Roessner, V., Brazil, I.A., Lockwood, P.L., and Kohls, G.

Abstract

04 juli 2023, Item does not contain fulltext, Objective: Conduct disorder (CD) has been associated with deficits in the use of punishment to guide reinforcement learning (RL) and decision making. This may explain the poorly planned and often impulsive antisocial and aggressive behavior in affected youths. Here, we used a computational modeling approach to examine differences in RL abilities between CD youths and typically developing controls (TDCs). Specifically, we tested two competing hypotheses that RL deficits in CD reflect either reward dominance (also known as reward hypersensitivity) or punishment insensitivity (also known as punishment hyposensitivity). Method: The study included 92 CD youths and 130 TDCs (ages 9-18, 48% girls) who completed a probabilistic RL task with reward, punishment, and neutral contingencies. Using computational modeling, we investigated the extent to which the two groups differed in their learning abilities to obtain reward and/or avoid punishment. Results: RL model comparisons showed that a model with separate learning rates per contingency explained behavioral performance best. Importantly, CD youths showed lower learning rates than TDCs specifically for punishment, whereas learning rates for reward and neutral contingencies did not differ. Moreover, callous-unemotional (CU) traits did not correlate with learning rates in CD. Conclusion: CD youths have a highly selective impairment in probabilistic punishment learning, regardless of their CU traits, while reward learning appears to be intact. In summary, our data suggest punishment insensitivity rather than reward dominance in CD. Clinically, the use of punishment-based intervention techniques to achieve effective discipline in patients with CD may be a less helpful strategy than reward-based techniques.

Published
2023

12. Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Author

Sherratt, K, Gruson, H, Grah, R, Johnson, H, Niehus, R, Prasse, B, Sandmann, F, Deuschel, J, Wolffram, D, Abbott, S, Ullrich, A, Gibson, G, L Ray, E, G Reich, N, Sheldon, D, Wang, Y, Wattanachit, N, Wang, L, Trnka, J, Obozinski, G, Sun, T, Thanou, D, Pottier, L, Krymova, E, H Meinke, J, Vittoria Barbarossa, M, Leithäuser, N, Mohring, J, Schneider, J, Włazło, J, Fuhrmann, J, Lange, B, Rodiah, I, Baccam, P, Gurung, H, Stage, S, Suchoski, B, Budzinski, J, Walraven, R, Villanueva, I, Tucek, V, Smid, M, Zajíček, M, Pérez Álvarez, C, Reina, B, I Bosse, N, R Meakin, S, Castro, L, Fairchild, G, Michaud, I, Osthus, D, Alaimo Di Loro, P, Maruotti, A, Eclerová, V, Kraus, A, Kraus, D, Pribylova, L, Dimitris, B, Lingzhi Li, M, Saksham, S, Dehning, J, Mohr, S, Priesemann, V, Redlarski, G, Bejar, B, Ardenghi, G, Parolini, N, Ziarelli, G, Bock, W, Heyder, S, Hotz, T, E Singh, D, Guzman-Merino, M, L Aznarte, J, Moriña, D, Alonso, S, Álvarez, E, López, D, Prats, C, Pablo Burgard, J, Rodloff, A, Zimmermann, T, Kuhlmann, A, Zibert, J, Pennoni, F, Divino, F, Català, M, Lovison, G, Giudici, P, Tarantino, B, Bartolucci, F, Jona Lasinio, G, Mingione, M, Farcomeni, A, Srivastava, A, Montero-Manso, P, Adiga, A, Hurt, B, Lewis, B, Marathe, M, Porebski, P, Venkatramanan, S, P Bartczuk, R, Dreger, F, Gambin, A, Gogolewski, K, Gruziel-Słomka, M, Krupa, B, Moszyński, A, Niedzielewski, K, Nowosielski, J, Radwan, M, Rakowski, F, Semeniuk, M, Szczurek, E, Zieliński, J, Kisielewski, J, Pabjan, B, Kirsten, H, Kheifetz, Y, Scholz, M, Biecek, P, Bodych, M, Filinski, M, Idzikowski, R, Krueger, T, Ozanski, T, Bracher, J, Funk, S, Katharine Sherratt, Hugo Gruson, Rok Grah, Helen Johnson, Rene Niehus, Bastian Prasse, Frank Sandmann, Jannik Deuschel, Daniel Wolffram, Sam Abbott, Alexander Ullrich, Graham Gibson, Evan L Ray, Nicholas G Reich, Daniel Sheldon, Yijin Wang, Nutcha Wattanachit, Lijing Wang, Jan Trnka, Guillaume Obozinski, Tao Sun, Dorina Thanou, Loic Pottier, Ekaterina Krymova, Jan H Meinke, Maria Vittoria Barbarossa, Neele Leithäuser, Jan Mohring, Johanna Schneider, Jaroslaw Włazło, Jan Fuhrmann, Berit Lange, Isti Rodiah, Prasith Baccam, Heidi Gurung, Steven Stage, Bradley Suchoski, Jozef Budzinski, Robert Walraven, Inmaculada Villanueva, Vit Tucek, Martin Smid, Milan Zajíček, Cesar Pérez Álvarez, Borja Reina, Nikos I Bosse, Sophie R Meakin, Lauren Castro, Geoffrey Fairchild, Isaac Michaud, Dave Osthus, Pierfrancesco Alaimo Di Loro, Antonello Maruotti, Veronika Eclerová, Andrea Kraus, David Kraus, Lenka Pribylova, Bertsimas Dimitris, Michael Lingzhi Li, Soni Saksham, Jonas Dehning, Sebastian Mohr, Viola Priesemann, Grzegorz Redlarski, Benjamin Bejar, Giovanni Ardenghi, Nicola Parolini, Giovanni Ziarelli, Wolfgang Bock, Stefan Heyder, Thomas Hotz, David E Singh, Miguel Guzman-Merino, Jose L Aznarte, David Moriña, Sergio Alonso, Enric Álvarez, Daniel López, Clara Prats, Jan Pablo Burgard, Arne Rodloff, Tom Zimmermann, Alexander Kuhlmann, Janez Zibert, Fulvia Pennoni, Fabio Divino, Marti Català, Gianfranco Lovison, Paolo Giudici, Barbara Tarantino, Francesco Bartolucci, Giovanna Jona Lasinio, Marco Mingione, Alessio Farcomeni, Ajitesh Srivastava, Pablo Montero-Manso, Aniruddha Adiga, Benjamin Hurt, Bryan Lewis, Madhav Marathe, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Rafal P Bartczuk, Filip Dreger, Anna Gambin, Krzysztof Gogolewski, Magdalena Gruziel-Słomka, Bartosz Krupa, Antoni Moszyński, Karol Niedzielewski, Jedrzej Nowosielski, Maciej Radwan, Franciszek Rakowski, Marcin Semeniuk, Ewa Szczurek, Jakub Zieliński, Jan Kisielewski, Barbara Pabjan, Holger Kirsten, Yuri Kheifetz, Markus Scholz, Przemyslaw Biecek, Marcin Bodych, Maciej Filinski, Radoslaw Idzikowski, Tyll Krueger, Tomasz Ozanski, Johannes Bracher, Sebastian Funk, Sherratt, K, Gruson, H, Grah, R, Johnson, H, Niehus, R, Prasse, B, Sandmann, F, Deuschel, J, Wolffram, D, Abbott, S, Ullrich, A, Gibson, G, L Ray, E, G Reich, N, Sheldon, D, Wang, Y, Wattanachit, N, Wang, L, Trnka, J, Obozinski, G, Sun, T, Thanou, D, Pottier, L, Krymova, E, H Meinke, J, Vittoria Barbarossa, M, Leithäuser, N, Mohring, J, Schneider, J, Włazło, J, Fuhrmann, J, Lange, B, Rodiah, I, Baccam, P, Gurung, H, Stage, S, Suchoski, B, Budzinski, J, Walraven, R, Villanueva, I, Tucek, V, Smid, M, Zajíček, M, Pérez Álvarez, C, Reina, B, I Bosse, N, R Meakin, S, Castro, L, Fairchild, G, Michaud, I, Osthus, D, Alaimo Di Loro, P, Maruotti, A, Eclerová, V, Kraus, A, Kraus, D, Pribylova, L, Dimitris, B, Lingzhi Li, M, Saksham, S, Dehning, J, Mohr, S, Priesemann, V, Redlarski, G, Bejar, B, Ardenghi, G, Parolini, N, Ziarelli, G, Bock, W, Heyder, S, Hotz, T, E Singh, D, Guzman-Merino, M, L Aznarte, J, Moriña, D, Alonso, S, Álvarez, E, López, D, Prats, C, Pablo Burgard, J, Rodloff, A, Zimmermann, T, Kuhlmann, A, Zibert, J, Pennoni, F, Divino, F, Català, M, Lovison, G, Giudici, P, Tarantino, B, Bartolucci, F, Jona Lasinio, G, Mingione, M, Farcomeni, A, Srivastava, A, Montero-Manso, P, Adiga, A, Hurt, B, Lewis, B, Marathe, M, Porebski, P, Venkatramanan, S, P Bartczuk, R, Dreger, F, Gambin, A, Gogolewski, K, Gruziel-Słomka, M, Krupa, B, Moszyński, A, Niedzielewski, K, Nowosielski, J, Radwan, M, Rakowski, F, Semeniuk, M, Szczurek, E, Zieliński, J, Kisielewski, J, Pabjan, B, Kirsten, H, Kheifetz, Y, Scholz, M, Biecek, P, Bodych, M, Filinski, M, Idzikowski, R, Krueger, T, Ozanski, T, Bracher, J, Funk, S, Katharine Sherratt, Hugo Gruson, Rok Grah, Helen Johnson, Rene Niehus, Bastian Prasse, Frank Sandmann, Jannik Deuschel, Daniel Wolffram, Sam Abbott, Alexander Ullrich, Graham Gibson, Evan L Ray, Nicholas G Reich, Daniel Sheldon, Yijin Wang, Nutcha Wattanachit, Lijing Wang, Jan Trnka, Guillaume Obozinski, Tao Sun, Dorina Thanou, Loic Pottier, Ekaterina Krymova, Jan H Meinke, Maria Vittoria Barbarossa, Neele Leithäuser, Jan Mohring, Johanna Schneider, Jaroslaw Włazło, Jan Fuhrmann, Berit Lange, Isti Rodiah, Prasith Baccam, Heidi Gurung, Steven Stage, Bradley Suchoski, Jozef Budzinski, Robert Walraven, Inmaculada Villanueva, Vit Tucek, Martin Smid, Milan Zajíček, Cesar Pérez Álvarez, Borja Reina, Nikos I Bosse, Sophie R Meakin, Lauren Castro, Geoffrey Fairchild, Isaac Michaud, Dave Osthus, Pierfrancesco Alaimo Di Loro, Antonello Maruotti, Veronika Eclerová, Andrea Kraus, David Kraus, Lenka Pribylova, Bertsimas Dimitris, Michael Lingzhi Li, Soni Saksham, Jonas Dehning, Sebastian Mohr, Viola Priesemann, Grzegorz Redlarski, Benjamin Bejar, Giovanni Ardenghi, Nicola Parolini, Giovanni Ziarelli, Wolfgang Bock, Stefan Heyder, Thomas Hotz, David E Singh, Miguel Guzman-Merino, Jose L Aznarte, David Moriña, Sergio Alonso, Enric Álvarez, Daniel López, Clara Prats, Jan Pablo Burgard, Arne Rodloff, Tom Zimmermann, Alexander Kuhlmann, Janez Zibert, Fulvia Pennoni, Fabio Divino, Marti Català, Gianfranco Lovison, Paolo Giudici, Barbara Tarantino, Francesco Bartolucci, Giovanna Jona Lasinio, Marco Mingione, Alessio Farcomeni, Ajitesh Srivastava, Pablo Montero-Manso, Aniruddha Adiga, Benjamin Hurt, Bryan Lewis, Madhav Marathe, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Rafal P Bartczuk, Filip Dreger, Anna Gambin, Krzysztof Gogolewski, Magdalena Gruziel-Słomka, Bartosz Krupa, Antoni Moszyński, Karol Niedzielewski, Jedrzej Nowosielski, Maciej Radwan, Franciszek Rakowski, Marcin Semeniuk, Ewa Szczurek, Jakub Zieliński, Jan Kisielewski, Barbara Pabjan, Holger Kirsten, Yuri Kheifetz, Markus Scholz, Przemyslaw Biecek, Marcin Bodych, Maciej Filinski, Radoslaw Idzikowski, Tyll Krueger, Tomasz Ozanski, Johannes Bracher, and Sebastian Funk

Abstract

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease contribute to situational awareness and capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise forecasts’ predictive performance by combining independent models into an ensemble. Here we report the performance of ensemble predictions of COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe from March 2021 to March 2022. Methods: We created the European COVID-19 Forecast Hub, an online open-access platform where modellers upload weekly forecasts for 32 countries with results publicly visualised and evaluated. We created a weekly ensemble forecast from the equally-weighted average across individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured forecast accuracy using a baseline and relative Weighted Interval Score (rWIS). We retrospectively explored ensemble methods, including weighting by past performance. Results: We collected weekly forecasts from 48 models, of which we evaluated 29 models alongside the ensemble model. The ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time, performing better on rWIS than 91% of forecasts for deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models), and 83% forecasts for cases (N=886 predictions from 23 models). Performance remained stable over a 4-week horizon for death forecasts but declined with longer horizons for cases. Among ensemble methods, the most influential choice came from using a median average instead of the mean, regardless of weighting component models. Conclusions: Our results support combining independent models into an ensemble forecast to improve epidemiological predictions, and suggest that median averages yield better performance than methods based on means. We highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than case forecasts at horizons greater than two weeks. Funding: European Commission, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades, FEDER; Ag

Published
2023

17. Hypothalamic-Ptuitary-Adrenal (HPA) Axis Activity in Adults with Intellectual Disabilities: A Preliminary Investigation

Author

Presland, A. D., Clare, I. C. H., Broughton, S., Luke, L., Wheeler, E., Fairchild, G., Watson, P. C., Chan, W. Y. S., Kearns, A., and Ring, H. A.

Abstract

Background: Cortisol is a marker of physiological arousal, exhibiting a characteristic pattern of diurnal activity. The daily cortisol profile has been examined extensively and is atypical in a number of clinical disorders. However, there are very few studies focussing on the cortisol profile in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID). This paper reports a preliminary investigation into the nature of the cortisol profile in adults with mild or moderate ID and provides reflections on the challenges of psychophysiological research in this population. Methods: On two consecutive days, 39 adults with mild or moderate ID each donated saliva samples for cortisol analysis, at multiple times between waking and evening. A comparison between these data and the published literature permitted a descriptive assessment of the cortisol awakening response (CAR) and diurnal profile. A variety of psychometric measures and an assessment of behavioural history were also collected in order to describe aspects of the participants' emotional and behavioural states. Results: Individuals with ID exhibit a diurnal cortisol secretion profile, qualitatively similar to that of the typical, healthy, adult population. However, the findings also suggested a blunted CAR, warranting further investigation. There was also some evidence that cortisol secretion was affected by anxiety and a recent history of aggression. Conclusion: While further work is required to characterise the CAR fully, there was no indication that the diurnal cortisol profile among people with ID differs from that of the typical population. This study also demonstrates that, although challenging, it is feasible, and acceptable to participants, to collect repeated physiological measures from men and women with mild and moderate ID. (Contains 2 figures and 2 tables.)

Published
2013
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20. Introduction

Author

Fairchild, G. B. and BioStor

Published
1966

23. Sex differences in psychiatric comorbidity and clinical presentation in youths with conduct disorder

Author

Konrad, K. Kohls, G. Baumann, S. Bernhard, A. Martinelli, A. Ackermann, K. Smaragdi, A. Gonzalez-Madruga, K. Wells, A. Rogers, J.C. Pauli, R. Clanton, R. Baker, R. Kersten, L. Prätzlich, M. Oldenhof, H. Jansen, L. Kleeven, A. Bigorra, A. Hervas, A. Kerexeta-Lizeaga, I. Sesma-Pardo, E. Angel Gonzalez-Torres, M. Siklósi, R. Dochnal, R. Kalogerakis, Z. Pirlympou, M. Papadakos, L. Cornwell, H. Scharke, W. Dikeos, D. Fernández-Rivas, A. Popma, A. Stadler, C. Herpertz-Dahlmann, B. De Brito, S.A. Fairchild, G. Freitag, C.M.

Abstract

Background: Conduct disorder (CD) rarely occurs alone but is typically accompanied by comorbid psychiatric disorders, which complicates the clinical presentation and treatment of affected youths. The aim of this study was to investigate sex differences in comorbidity pattern in CD and to systematically explore the ‘gender paradox’ and ‘delayed-onset pathway’ hypotheses of female CD. Methods: As part of the FemNAT-CD multisite study, semistructured clinical interviews and rating scales were used to perform a comprehensive phenotypic characterization of 454 girls and 295 boys with CD (9–18 years), compared to 864 sex- and age-matched typically developing controls. Results: Girls with CD exhibited higher rates of current major depression, anxiety disorders, post-traumatic stress disorder and borderline personality disorder, whereas boys with CD had higher rates of current attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder. In line with the ‘gender paradox’ hypothesis, relative to boys, girls with CD showed significantly more lifetime psychiatric comorbidities (incl. Alcohol Use Disorder), which were accompanied by more severe CD symptoms. Female and male youths with CD also differed significantly in their CD symptom profiles and distribution of age-of-onset subtypes of CD (i.e. fewer girls with childhood-onset CD). In line with the ‘delayed-onset pathway’ hypothesis, girls with adolescent-onset CD showed similar levels of dimensional psychopathology like boys with childhood-onset CD, while boys with adolescent-onset CD had the lowest levels of internalizing psychopathology. Conclusions: Within the largest study of CD in girls performed to date, we found compelling evidence for sex differences in comorbidity patterns and clinical presentation of CD. Our findings further support aspects of the ‘gender paradox’ and ‘delayed-onset pathway’ hypotheses by showing that girls with CD had higher rates of comorbid lifetime mental disorders and functional impairments, and they usually developed CD during adolescence. These novel data on sex-specific clinical profiles of CD will be critical in informing intervention and prevention programmes. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health

Published
2022

24. A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave

Author

Bracher, J, Wolffram, D, Deuschel, J, Görgen, K, Ketterer, JL, Ullrich, A, Abbott, S, Barbarossa, MV, Bertsimas, D, Bhatia, S, Bodych, M, Bosse, NI, Burgard, JP, Castro, L, Fairchild, G, Fuhrmann, J, Funk, S, Gogolewski, K, Gu, Q, Heyder, S, Hotz, T, Kheifetz, Y, Kirsten, H, Krueger, T, Krymova, E, Li, ML, Meinke, JH, Michaud, IJ, Niedzielewski, K, Ożański, T, Rakowski, F, Scholz, M, Soni, S, Srivastava, A, Zieliński, J, Zou, D, Gneiting, T, Schienle, M, and List of Contributors by Team

Subjects
social sciences
Abstract

Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October-19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.

Published
2021

40. Positive and negative parenting in conduct disorder with high versus low levels of callous-unemotional traits

Author

Pauli, R. Tino, P. Rogers, J.C. Baker, R. Clanton, R. Birch, P. Brown, A. Daniel, G. Ferreira, L. Grisley, L. Kohls, G. Baumann, S. Bernhard, A. Martinelli, A. Ackermann, K. Lazaratou, H. Tsiakoulia, F. Bali, P. Oldenhof, H. Jansen, L. Smaragdi, A. Gonzalez-Madruga, K. Gonzalez-Torres, M.A. Gonzalez De Artaza-Lavesa, M. Steppan, M. Vriends, N. Bigorra, A. Siklosi, R. Ghosh, S. Bunte, K. Dochnal, R. Hervas, A. Stadler, C. Fernandez-Rivas, A. Fairchild, G. Popma, A. DIkeos, D. Konrad, K. Herpertz-Dahlmann, B. Freitag, C.M. Rotshtein, P. De Brito, S.A.

Abstract

Less is known about the relationship between conduct disorder (CD), callous-unemotional (CU) traits, and positive and negative parenting in youth compared to early childhood. We combined traditional univariate analyses with a novel machine learning classifier (Angle-based Generalized Matrix Learning Vector Quantization) to classify youth (N = 756; 9-18 years) into typically developing (TD) or CD groups with or without elevated CU traits (CD/HCU, CD/LCU, respectively) using youth- and parent-reports of parenting behavior. At the group level, both CD/HCU and CD/LCU were associated with high negative and low positive parenting relative to TD. However, only positive parenting differed between the CD/HCU and CD/LCU groups. In classification analyses, performance was best when distinguishing CD/HCU from TD groups and poorest when distinguishing CD/HCU from CD/LCU groups. Positive and negative parenting were both relevant when distinguishing CD/HCU from TD, negative parenting was most relevant when distinguishing between CD/LCU and TD, and positive parenting was most relevant when distinguishing CD/HCU from CD/LCU groups. These findings suggest that while positive parenting distinguishes between CD/HCU and CD/LCU, negative parenting is associated with both CD subtypes. These results highlight the importance of considering multiple parenting behaviors in CD with varying levels of CU traits in late childhood/adolescence. Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2020.

Published
2021

41. Sex-specific associations of basal steroid hormones and neuropeptides with Conduct Disorder and neuroendocrine mediation of environmental risk

Author

Bernhard, A. Kirchner, M. Martinelli, A. Ackermann, K. Kohls, G. Gonzalez-Madruga, K. Wells, A. Fernández-Rivas, A. De Artaza-Lavesa, M.G. Raschle, N.M. Konsta, A. Siklósi, R. Hervás, A. Herpertz-Dahlmann, B. De Brito, S.A. Popma, A. Stadler, C. Konrad, K. Fairchild, G. Freitag, C.M.

Subjects
hormones, hormone substitutes, and hormone antagonists
Abstract

Conduct Disorder (CD) is characterized by severe aggressive and antisocial behavior. The stress hormone system has frequently been investigated as a neurobiological correlate of CD, while other interacting neuroendocrine biomarkers of sex hormone or neuropeptide systems have rarely been studied, especially in females. We examined multiple basal neuroendocrine biomarkers in female and male adolescents with CD compared to healthy controls (HCs), and explored whether they mediate effects of environmental risk factors on CD. Within the FemNAT-CD study, salivary cortisol, alpha-amylase, testosterone, dehydroepiandrosterone-sulfate (DHEA-S), estradiol, progesterone, oxytocin, and arginine-vasopressin were measured under basal conditions in 166 pubertal adolescents with CD, and 194 sex-, age-, and puberty-matched HCs (60% females, 9–18 years). Further, environmental risk factors were assessed. Single hormone analyses showed higher DHEA-S, and lower estradiol and progesterone levels in both females and males with CD relative to HCs. When accounting for interactions between neuroendocrine systems, a male-specific sex hormone factor (testosterone/DHEA-S) predicted male CD, while estradiol and a stress-system factor (cortisol/alpha-amylase) interacting with oxytocin predicted female CD. Estradiol, progesterone, and oxytocin partly explained associations between early environmental risk and CD. Findings provide evidence for sex-specific associations between basal neuroendocrine measures and CD. Especially altered sex hormones (androgen increases in males, estrogen reductions in females) robustly related to CD, while basal stress-system measures did not. Early environmental risk factors for CD may act partly through their effects on the neuroendocrine system, especially in females. Limitations (e.g., basal neuroendocrine assessment, different sample sizes per sex, pubertal participants, exploratory mediation analyses) are discussed. © 2021

Published
2021

45. New North American Tabanidae. 7, Descriptions of Tabaninae from Mexico (Diptera). American Museum novitates ; no. 1695

Author

Aitken, Thomas H. G., Bequaert, Joseph C. (Joseph Charles), b. 1886., Dampf, Alfonso Alexis Ernst Michael, 1884, David Rockefeller Mexican Expedition of the American Museum of Natural History (1947), Fairchild, G. B., Philip, Cornelius B. (Cornelius Becker), 1900, American Museum of Natural History Library, Aitken, Thomas H. G., Bequaert, Joseph C. (Joseph Charles), b. 1886., Dampf, Alfonso Alexis Ernst Michael, 1884, David Rockefeller Mexican Expedition of the American Museum of Natural History (1947), Fairchild, G. B., and Philip, Cornelius B. (Cornelius Becker), 1900

Subjects
Horseflies, Insects, Mexico

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