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This paper examines the meteorological factors that led to the record-breaking heavy precipitation event in Taiwan in the early 2020 mei-yu season (May 15–31). The extreme amount of rainfall (an average of 135.9 mm per station) during the 36-h period around May 22 (hereafter Y20R) also set a record. Compared to climatology, the Pacific subtropical high was stronger and the southwesterly monsoonal flow was more intense during the first half of the 2020 mei-yu season, resulting in a stronger moisture conveyor belt over the northern Indo-China Peninsula. The record-breaking precipitation in Y20R was mainly caused by the eastward movement of a southwest vortex (SWV) generated in southwestern China. When the eastern portion of the SWV touched northern Taiwan, its associated west-southwesterly winds and the large-scale southwesterly monsoonal flow transported moisture toward the Taiwan Strait. The moisture-laden southwesterly flow was lifted by the stationary mei-yu front, leading to the heavy rainfall in southern Taiwan. When the SWV passed through northern Taiwan, it became the dominant weather system that enhanced the west-southwesterly winds and transported moisture from South China to Taiwan. The front moved southward through the Taiwan Strait during this period, with its location greatly determining the pattern of rainfall in southern Taiwan. In summary, the most critical factors leading to heavy rainfall in southern Taiwan are the strong 850-hPa southwesterly winds and moisture fluxes associated with the SWV. The other key factors include, in order of sensitivity to rainfall, the distance of the front, the distance of the SWV, the frontal speed, and the intensity of the SWV.

The performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) across Taiwan during three mei-yu seasons between 2008 and 2010 is evaluated using observations from about 400 rain gauges. The QPFs, spanning a range of 12–36 h and run for two nested domains at grid sizes of 15 and 5 km, are verified. Both visual and statistical-based verification methods are used to provide complementary results. More emphasis is placed on intraseasonal variation and the diurnal cycle of mei-yu rainfall, as these aspects have been less well explored previously. While the categorical statistics indicate skill levels comparable to past studies, the model performs better for frontal rainfall in May than monsoon rainfall in June. The two WRF domains are found to capture the overall rainfall amount, its general spatial pattern, the increased rain from May to June, and the basic diurnal cycle to a reasonable extent. However, both domains exhibit a persistent eastward shift in rainfall areas throughout the season, from the upwind slope to near the ridge, mainly because of excessive daytime rainfall over the mountains that starts and ends too early (more so in June), combined with insufficient rainfall upstream (in plains and slopes) since the morning. Also, the 15-km domain has total rainfall amounts closer to the observations, but the 5-km domain suffers a larger underforecast with rainfall only at the resolvable scale. Despite this, the finer mesh is more capable of predicting the peak values and local variations in rainfall and, thus, has the same skill with higher hit percentages, especially toward the high thresholds.

This paper estimates marine boundary layer height (MBLH) over the western North Pacific (WNP) based on Global Positioning System Radio Occultation (GPS-RO) profiles from the Formosa Satellite Mission 3 (FORMOSAT-3)/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) satellites, island soundings, and numerical models. The seasonally-averaged MBLHs computed from nine years (2007&ndash, 2015) of GPS-RO data are inter-compared with those obtained from sounding observations at 15 island stations and from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP GFS) data over the WNP from 2012 to 2015. It is found that the MBLH using nine years of GPS-RO data is smoother and more consistent with that obtained from sounding observations than is the MBLH using four years of GPS-RO data in a previous study. In winter, higher MBLHs are found around the subtropical latitudes and over oceans east of Japan, which are approximately located within the paths of the North Equatorial Current and the Kuroshio Current. The MBLH is also significantly higher in winter than in summer over the WNP. The above MBLH pattern is generally similar to those obtained from the analysis data of the ERA-Interim and NCEP GFS, but the heights are about 200 m higher. The verification with soundings suggests that the ERA-Interim has a better MBLH estimation than the NCEP GFS. Thus, the MBLH distributions obtained from both the nine-year GPS-RO and the ERA-Interim data can represent well the climatological MBLH over the WNP, but the heights should be adjusted about 30 m lower for the former and ~200 m higher for the latter. A positive correlation between the MBLH and the instability of the lower atmosphere exists over large near-shore areas of the WNP, where cold air can move over warm oceans from the land in winter, resulting in an increase in lower-atmospheric instability and providing favorable conditions for convection to yield a higher MBLH. During summer, the lower-atmospheric instability becomes smaller and the MBLH is thus lower over near-shore oceans.

The impact of GPS radio occultation (RO) data assimilation on severe weather predictions in East Asia is introduced and reviewed. Both the local observation operator that assimilates the retrieved refractivity as local point measurement, and the nonlocal observation operator that assimilates the integrated retrieved refractivity along a straight raypath have been utilized in WRF 3DVAR to improve the initial analysis of the model. A general evaluation of the impact of these approaches on Asian regional analysis and daily prediction is provided in this paper. In general, the GPS RO data assimilation may improve prediction of severe weather such as typhoons and Mei-yu systems when COSMIC data were available, ranging from several points in 2006 to a maximum of about 60 in 2007 and 2008 in this region. Based on a number of experiments, regional model predictions at 5 km resolution were not significantly influenced by different observation operators, although the nonlocal observation operator sometimes results in slightly better track forecast. These positive impacts are seen not only in typhoon track prediction but also in prediction of local heavy rainfall associated with severe weather over Taiwan. The impact of 56 GPS RO soundings on track prediction of Cyclone Gonu (2007) over the Indian Ocean is also appealing when compared to other tracks assimilated with different observations. From a successive evaluation of skill scores for real-time forecasts on Mei-yu frontal systems operationally conducted over a longer period and predictions of six typhoons in 2008, assimilation of GPS RO data appears to have some positive impact on regional weather predictions, on top of existent assimilation with all other observations.

A study of the impact of FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC GPS radio occultation (RO) and dropwindsonde data on regional model simulations for a 11-day period during the 2007 Mei-yu season is presented. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its three-dimensional variation component, WRF-Var, are used for regional model predictions of heavy rainfall events in Taiwan. Without the use of GPS RO and dropwindsonde data, pressure and relative humidity are, in general, underestimated by the model; temperature predictions have a warm bias at the low level and a cold bias at the high level; and the east–west and north–south component winds have positive and negative biases, respectively. Incorporating GPS RO data tends to improve the prediction for longer integration. The assimilation of dropwindsonde data improves the forecast at the earlier time and at higher levels, and the improvement decreases over time. The reason the dropwindsonde data produce a positive impact earlier and the GPS RO data later is that there are few GPS RO observations in the fine domain. The large-scale simulation is first improved using the GPS RO observations, and the resulting changes can have a positive impact on the mesoscale at the later time. The dropwindsonde observations were taken inside the fine domain such that their impact can be detected early in the simulation. With both types of observation included, the prediction shows even greater improvement. At the earlier forecast time, there is nearly no impact from GPS and dropwindsonde data on rainfall forecasts. However, at the later integration time, the GPS data start to significantly improve the rainfall forecast. The dropwindsonde data also provide a positive impact on rainfall forecasts, but it is not as significant as that of the GPS data.

This paper presents an observational and numerical study of Typhoon Mindulle (2004) as it affected Taiwan. Mindulle made landfall on the east coast of Taiwan at 1500 UTC 1 July 2004, and after 13 h, it exited Taiwan from the north coast. Severe rainfall (with a maximum amount of 787 mm) occurred over central-southwestern Taiwan on 2 July 2004. During the landfall of Mindulle’s main circulation, a secondary low formed over the Taiwan Strait. However, the secondary low, after it developed significantly (vorticity exceeded 5 × 10−4 s−1 over a 30-km radius), did not replace the original center as was observed in many other storms. Instead, it moved inland and dissipated after the original center redeveloped near the north coast of Taiwan. In this study, the evolution of the secondary low, the redevelopment of the primary center, and the processes leading to the severe rainfall were examined. Results showed that the processes leading to the formation and the development of the secondary low were similar to those described in previous studies. These processes include the leeside subsidence warming, the horizontal transport of vorticity around the northern tip of the Central Mountain Range (CMR), and the overmountain upper-level vorticity remnant. However, because of the northward track, Mindulle preserved some strong vorticity on the eastern slope of the CMR. This strong vorticity remnant was steered northward over the ocean offshore from the north coast where the redevelopment of the primary center occurred. This “quasi-continuous track” of Mindulle has not been documented in previous studies. The vortex interaction between the redeveloped primary center and the secondary low resulted in the northeastward movement of the secondary low, which then dissipated after making landfall. Analyses also showed that even though heavy rainfall would occur over the mountain area when only the southwesterly flow prevailed, as on 3 July 2004, Typhoon Mindulle and the secondary low provided extra convergence that resulted in the west–east-oriented convective bands. These convective bands and the orographic lifting of the circulation associated with the secondary low resulted in the heavy rainfall over the central-western plains area.

This paper presents an observational and numerical study of the southwesterly flow and heavy rainfall associated with Typhoon Mindulle (2004). When Mindulle made landfall on the east coast of Taiwan on 1 July 2004, a secondary low formed over the Taiwan Strait. The low then dissipated after Mindulle moved out over the ocean north of Taiwan. Subsequently, the accompanying strong southwesterly flow brought extremely heavy rainfall over southern and central Taiwan. The modeling study of the 15-km and 5-km grids shows that the southwesterly flow, which resulted from a downgradient acceleration toward the low system over the Taiwan Strait, transported the convectively unstable air northeastward over the northern South China Sea. When low-level air convergence provided enough lifting, strong mesoscale convective systems (MCS) were triggered in this region. This contributed to the formation of a series of mesolows and mesohighs which prevented air from accelerating farther northeastward. Only after these MCSs dissipated and the Pacific high extended westward was the moist unstable air able to accelerate into the southern Taiwan Strait, where it converged with the westerly flow of the typhoon circulation, producing convective rainbands southwest of Taiwan. When moving over land, these MCSs were enhanced, resulting in heavy rainfall. It is concluded that although the typhoon circulation was critical on the rainband development, the importance of the southwesterly flow in bringing the moist unstable air to converge with the typhoon circulation can not be left out. The southwesterly flow was first induced by typhoon's low pressure system at early stage, and was enhanced as a result of the westward extension of the Pacific high at later stage. The moisture budget analysis further shows that the development of the MCSs was mainly contributed by the horizontal moisture transport in the southwesterly flow. Evaporation locally from the ocean played only a minor role.

This paper presents an evaluation study of a real-time fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) mesoscale ensemble prediction system in the Taiwan area during the 2003 mei-yu season. The ensemble system consists of 16 members that used the same nested domains of 45- and 15-km resolutions, but different model settings of the initial conditions (ICs), the cumulus parameterization scheme (CPS), and the microphysics scheme (MS). Verification of geopotential height, temperature, relative humidity, and winds in the 15-km grid shows that the members using the Kain–Fritsch CPS performed better than those using the Grell CPS, and those using the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) Nonhydrostatic Forecast System (NFS) ICs fared better than those using the CWB Global Forecast System (GFS) ICs. The members applying the mixed-phase MS generally exhibited the smallest errors among the four MSs. Precipitation verification shows that the members using the Grell CPS, in general, had higher equitable threat scores (ETSs) than those using the Kain–Fritsch CPS, that the members with the GFS ICs performed better than with the NFS ICs, and that the mixed-phase and Goddard MSs gave relatively high ETSs in the rainfall simulation. The bias scores show that, overall, all 16 members underforecasted rainfall. Comparisons of the ensemble means show that, on average, an ensemble mean, no matter how many members it contains, can produce better forecasts than an individual member. Among the three possible elements (IC, CPS, and MS) that can be varied to compose an ensemble, the ensemble that contains members with all three elements varying performed the best, while that with two elements varying was second best, and that with only one varying was the worst. Furthermore, the first choice for composing an ensemble is to use perturbed ICs, followed by the perturbed CPS, and then the perturbed MS.

This paper describes an observational and numerical study of an intense wintertime cold front that occurred in Taiwan on 8 January 1996. The front was associated with rope clouds at the leading edge, and a broad area of stratiform clouds behind. The front was blocked by the Central Mountain Range of Taiwan and divided into two sections on each side of the mountain range. As the cold air moved southward along the east coast, the increasing westward Coriolis force induced a landward acceleration. After the cold air piled up against the mountains, a coastal pressure ridge developed. The cold air damming yielded a geostrophic balance between the westward Coriolis force and the eastward component of the pressure gradient force in the x direction, and a southward acceleration in the y direction mainly caused by the southward pressure gradient force component. Over the Taiwan Strait, southward pressure gradient forces increased when the low-level stable cold air was confined over the Taiwan Strait, leading to a southward acceleration of the cold air. The formation of a windward ridge off the northwest coast of Taiwan contributed to a large southward acceleration, resulting in the development of a coastal jet. Over the Taiwan Strait, the cold air moved southward the fastest due to the channeling effect. The air parcels along the east coast of Taiwan experienced a downgradient acceleration from the cold air damming and advanced at a slower speed. Those traveling over the western plains and the nearshore coast advanced at the slowest speed. Two sensitivity runs, one without Taiwan’s topography (flat land only) and the other without Taiwan’s landmass, demonstrated the influences of Taiwan’s terrain and water–land contrast on the airflow. The run with no surface fluxes showed that the ocean modified the low-level cold air by supplying surface heat and moisture fluxes. This weakened the front, reduced low-level stability, and increased forced shallow convection (formation of rope clouds) at the leading edge.

This study presents precipitation verification of individual members and ensemble means in the Taiwan area for a real-time mesoscale ensemble prediction system, during the 2000, 2001, and 2002 early summer convective (mei-yu) seasons. The ensemble system, using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) as a forecast model, consists of six members, each run with a different combination of moisture physics schemes. Precipitation forecasts within the 15-km domain were verified against the observational data from the 342 rain gauge stations on the island. In general the model that utilized the Grell cumulus parameterization scheme (CPS) and the Reisner I microphysics scheme (the GR model) had the best forecast skill among the six members. This physics combination is, therefore, recommended for MM5 rainfall simulations in the Taiwan area during the mei-yu season. The Kain–Fritsch CPS dominated the rainfall process and generally underforecast rainfall at high rainfal...

This study presents precipitation verification, in the Taiwan area, for a real-time Pennsylvania State University‐ National Center for Atmospheric Research Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) system during the 1998 Mei-yu season. The highest equitable threat score (ETS) of precipitation forecasts, verified against observed precipitation, was about 0.2 at the 2.5-mm threshold for this nearly 2-month period. The complex and steep terrain in this region presented great challenges to the 15-km model in predicting realistic rainfall because the precipitation was driven by local forcings such as thermal effects and orographic lifting. In addition, the lack of observational data over the surrounding ocean greatly limited the quality of the model’s initial data. It was found that the model system more accurately simulated nighttime rainfall than daytime precipitation. This was caused by the model underforecasting the rainfall events that resulted from solar heating and orographic lifting over the mountain slopes during the daytime hours. Precipitation, however, was overforecast over the high mountain regions (.1200 m). Further, the analysis of ETS with regard to the terrain height indicated that the model performed better over the lowlands than over the mountainous areas (slopes and highlands). It was discovered that the ETSs were much higher for precipitation forecasts after the onset of the east Asia summer monsoon than prior to the onset. Overall, the model more accurately predicted precipitation for the rainfall events associated with the Mei-yu front and the accompanying mesoscale convective systems than it predicted precipitation associated with the local forcings.

This paper presents an observational and numerical study of an intense wintertime cold front that made landfall along the northwest coast of the United States during IOP 2 (3–4 Dec 1993) of the Coastal Observation and Simulation with Topography experiment. Observations suggest that the offshore frontal zone was associated with two transitions: the first characterized by a substantial temperature gradient, a nearly vertically oriented wind shift from southwesterly ahead to westerly behind, and a convective rainband, while the second transition had a slantwise wind shift zone from westerly ahead to northwesterly behind. The frontal zone was quite narrow (∼5 km wide) and nearly vertical below 850 mb, and its width increased by 1–2 orders of magnitude above 850 mb. Well before the frontal landfall, low-level flow to the west of the Olympics was associated with geostrophic balance in the cross-shore direction and downgradient acceleration in the alongshore direction, which contributed to the formation...

Observational analyses and numerical simulations are used to investigate the interaction between a warm-season frontal system/trough and the complex terrain of the western United States. Prior to frontal landfall, synoptically driven offshore flow was associated with the northward development of a thermal trough, and a coastal pressure ridge and associated southerly winds moved northward along the coasts of northern California, Oregon, Washington, and southwestern British Columbia. This coastal pressure ridge, coupled with the subsequent weakening of the offshore flow, resulted in the onshore push of cool marine air approximately 24 h before frontal passage. The onshore surge of cool marine air into warm, dry continental air associated with the thermal trough produced a mesofront that moved over the coastal and Cascade Mountains. Diagnosis of a realistic simulation of the event shows that both solar heating and adiabatic warming from downslope flow over the Rockies and the Cascade Mountains are i...

Observational analyses and numerical simulations are used to investigate a Puget Sound convergence zone (PSCZ) event that occurred in the lee of the Olympic Mountains of Washington State. The PSCZ, which develops when low-level airstreams are forced to converge over Puget Sound by the regional orography, is frequently associated with a mesoscale swath of clouds and precipitation across the central Puget Sound that stretches eastward over the western side of the Cascade Mountains. It was found that latent heat release enhances the PSCZ circulation and associated precipitation. Both the Olympic and the Cascade Mountains are important in the formation of the PSCZ. The Olympics deflect the low-level onshore flow into two branches, one along the Strait of Juan de Fuca and another around the southern flank of the Olympics; in addition, a lee trough, which develops to the east of this barrier, induces convergence over the central Puget Sound. The Cascades deflect low-level flow over northern Puget Sound...

[1] Typhoon Morakot (2009), a devastating tropical cyclone (TC) that made landfall in Taiwan from 7 to 9 August 2009, produced the highest recorded rainfall in southern Taiwan in the past 50 years. This study examines the factors that contributed to the heavy rainfall. It is found that the amount of rainfall in Taiwan was nearly proportional to the reciprocal of TC translation speed rather than the TC intensity. Morakot's landfall on Taiwan occurred concurrently with the cyclonic phase of the intraseasonal oscillation, which enhanced the background southwesterly monsoonal flow. The extreme rainfall was caused by the very slow movement of Morakot both in the landfall and in the postlandfall periods and the continuous formation of mesoscale convection with the moisture supply from the southwesterly flow. A composite study of 19 TCs with similar track to Morakot shows that the uniquely slow translation speed of Morakot was closely related to the northwestward-extending Pacific subtropical high (PSH) and the broad low-pressure systems (associated with Typhoon Etau and Typhoon Goni) surrounding Morakot. Specifically, it was caused by the weakening steering flow at high levels that primarily resulted from the weakening PSH, an approaching short-wave trough, and the northwestward-tilting Etau. After TC landfall, the circulation of Goni merged with the southwesterly flow, resulting in a moisture conveyer belt that transported moisture-laden air toward the east-northeast. Significant mesoscale convection occurred on a long-lived east-west-oriented convergence line and on the mountain slope in southern Taiwan. This convective line was associated with large low-level moisture flux convergence caused by the northwesterly circulation of Morakot and the southwesterly flow. It is thus suggested that the long duration of Typhoon Morakot in the Taiwan area, the interaction of southwest monsoon and typhoon circulation, the mesoscale convection, and the presence of terrain are the key factors in generating the tremendous rainfall.

[1] The impact of retrieved total precipitable water (TPW) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) infrared (IR), MODIS near-infrared (NIR), and the combined Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)-IR and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-Microwave channels on simulations of Hurricane Emily was assessed and compared using the Weather Research and Forecasting model and its three-dimensional variation data assimilation (3D-Var) system. After assimilating MODIS IR TPW, the model clearly better reproduced storm tracking, intensity, and the 10 m wind field, while the improvement was limited or nil when assimilating either MODIS NIR TPW or AIRS TPW. After the data assimilation of MODIS IR TPW, a positive moisture increment was present to the east of the simulated storm in 3D-Var analysis (i.e., initial conditions). The positive TPW increment enhanced a convective cloud, which was also observed by satellites. The convective cloud effectively modulated the height and wind fields, resulting in a weakening of the vertical wind shear (VWS) over the region. The weak VWS band was then advected to the north of the storm, preventing the storm from attaching to the strong VWS zone located between 20°N and 30°N. There was no such positive moisture increment, convective cloud, or weak VWS band occurring to the east of the simulated storm in the other data assimilation experiments. This explains why the simulated storm intensified with assimilation of MODIS IR TPW but not for the other experiments.

Observational and numerical studies have consistently shown the importance of latent heat release associated with frontal precipitation in the development of a Mei-Yu front. However, a systematic evaluation of precipitation parameterization in the simulation of a Mei-Yu front has been rare in the literature. In order to enhance our understanding on precipitation parameterization of Mei-Yu fronts, this study conducts numerical experiments to evaluate the performance of subgrid-scale cumulus schemes and resolvable-scale microphysics schemes to simulate the Mei-Yu frontal system on 4-5 June 1998 at grid resolutions of 45 km and 15 km, using the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model MM5. Principal findings are summarized here. The horizontal extent and intensity of precipitation, the partitioning off precipitation into grid-resolvable and subgrid-scale portions, the vertical thermodynamic profile in the precipitation region and the embedded mesoscale structure are extremely sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterization schemes. This is true for both the 45- and 15-km grids. The partitioning of precipitation into subgrid scale and resolvable scale is sensitive to the particular cumulus parameterization that is used in the model, but it is nearly the same on both the 4S- and IS-km grids for a given cumulus parameterization. The detailed ice-phase microphysical processes do not have a significant impact on the rainfall pattern on either the 45- and 15-km grids. However, the inclusion of cloud ice-snow-graupel microphysical processes increases the total surface precipitation amount by 30% compared to the amount with only warm raid processes. Variations in the subgrid-scale cumulus parameterization have a much larger impact on the distribution and amount of Mei-Yu frontal precipitation than do variations in the resolvable-scale microphysics parameterization at mesoscale grid resolutions of 10-50 km.