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While HIV-1 subtype B has caused a large epidemic in the Western world, its transmission in Ukraine remains poorly understood. We assessed the genetic diversity of HIV-1 subtype B viruses circulating in Ukraine, characterized the transmission group structure, and estimated key evolutionary and epidemiological parameters. We analyzed 120 HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences (including 46 newly generated) sampled from patients residing in 11 regions of Ukraine between 2002 and 2017. Phylogenies were estimated using maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic methods. A Bayesian molecular clock coalescent analysis was used to estimate effective population size dynamics and date the most recent common ancestors of identified clades. A phylodynamic birth-death model was used to estimate the effective reproductive number (Re) of these clades. We identified two phylogenetically distinct predominantly Ukrainian (≥75%) clades of HIV-1 subtype B. We found no significant transmission group structure for either clade, suggesting frequent mixing among transmission groups. The estimated dates of origin of both subtype B clades were around early 1970s, similar to the introduction of HIV-1 subtype A into Ukraine. Re was estimated to be 1.42 [95% highest posterior density (HPD) 1.26-1.56] for Clade 1 and 1.69 (95% HPD 1.49-1.84) for Clade 2. Evidently, the subtype B epidemic in the country is no longer concentrated in specific geographical regions or transmission groups. The study results highlight the necessity for strengthening preventive and monitoring efforts to reduce the further spread of HIV-1 subtype B.

ObjectivesTo determine protease mutations that develop at viral failure for protease inhibitor (PI)-naive patients on a regimen containing the PI atazanavir.MethodsResistance tests on patients failing atazanavir, conducted as part of routine clinical care in a multicentre observational study, were randomly matched by subtype to resistance tests from PI-naive controls to account for natural polymorphisms. Mutations from the consensus B sequence across the protease region were analysed for association and defined using the IAS-USA 2011 classification list.ResultsFour hundred and five of 2528 (16%) patients failed therapy containing atazanavir as a first PI over a median (IQR) follow-up of 1.76 (0.84-3.15) years and 322 resistance tests were available for analysis. Recognized major atazanavir mutations were found in six atazanavir-experienced patients (P < 0.001), including I50L and N88S. The minor mutations most strongly associated with atazanavir experience were M36I, M46I, F53L, A71V, V82T and I85V (P < 0.05). Multiple novel mutations, I15S, L19T, K43T, L63P/V, K70Q, V77I and L89I/T/V, were also associated with atazanavir experience.ConclusionsViral failure on atazanavir-containing regimens was not common and major resistance mutations were rare, suggesting that adherence may be a major contributor to viral failure. Novel mutations were described that have not been previously documented.

Objectives: The aim of the study was to investigate whether lamivudine (3TC) or emtricitabine (FTC) use following detection of M184V/I is associated with better virological outcomes. Methods: We identified people with viruses harbouring the M184V/I mutation in UK multicentre data sets who had treatment change/initiation within 1 year. We analysed outcomes of viral suppression (< 200 HIV‐1 RNA copies/mL) and appearance of new major drug resistance mutations (DRMs) using Cox and Poisson models, with stratification by new drug regimen (excluding 3TC/FTC) and Bayesian implementation, and estimated the effect of 3TC/FTC adjusted for individual and viral characteristics. Results: We included 2597 people with the M184V/I resistance mutation, of whom 665 (25.6%) were on 3TC and 458 (17.6%) on FTC. We found a negative adjusted association between 3TC/FTC use and viral suppression [hazard ratio (HR) 0.84; 95% credibility interval (CrI) 0.71–0.98]. On subgroup analysis of individual drugs, there was no evidence of an association with viral suppression for 3TC (n = 184; HR 0.94; 95% CrI 0.73–1.15) or FTC (n = 454; HR 0.99; 95% CrI 0.80–1.19) amongst those on tenofovir‐containing regimens, but we estimated a reduced rate of viral suppression for people on 3TC amongst those without tenofovir use (n = 481; HR 0.71; 95% CrI 0.54–0.90). We found no association between 3TC/FTC and detection of any new DRM (overall HR 0.92; 95% CrI 0.64–1.18), but found inconclusive evidence of a lower incidence rate of new DRMs (overall incidence rate ratio 0.69; 95% CrI 0.34–1.11). Conclusions: We did not find evidence that 3TC or FTC use is associated with an increase in viral suppression, but it may reduce the appearance of additional DRMs in people with M184V/I. 3TC was associated with reduced viral suppression amongst people on regimens without tenofovir. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The United Kingdom human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic was historically dominated by HIV subtype B transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM). Now 50% of diagnoses and prevalent infections are among heterosexual individuals and mainly involve non-B subtypes. Between 2002 and 2010, the prevalence of non-B diagnoses among MSM increased from 5.4% to 17%, and this study focused on the drivers of this change.Methods: Growth between 2007 and 2009 in transmission clusters among 14 000 subtype A1, C, D, and G sequences from the United Kingdom HIV Drug Resistance Database was analysed by risk group.Results: Of 1148 clusters containing at least 2 sequences in 2007, >75% were pairs and >90% were heterosexual. Most clusters (71.4%) did not grow during the study period. Growth was significantly lower for small clusters and higher for clusters of ≥7 sequences, with the highest growth observed for clusters comprising sequences from MSM and people who inject drugs (PWID). Risk group (P< .0001), cluster size (P< .0001), and subtype (P< .01) were predictive of growth in a generalized linear model.Discussion: Despite the increase in non-B subtypes associated with heterosexual transmission, MSM and PWID are at risk for non-B infections. Crossover of subtype C from heterosexuals to MSM has led to the expansion of this subtype within the United Kingdom. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disease progression in HIV-infected individuals varies greatly, and while the environmental and host factors influencing this variation have been widely investigated, the viral contribution to variation in set-point viral load, a predictor of disease progression, is less clear. Previous studies, using transmission-pairs and analysis of phylogenetic signal in small numbers of individuals, have produced a wide range of viral genetic effect estimates. Here we present a novel application of a population-scale method based in quantitative genetics to estimate the viral genetic effect on set-point viral load in the UK subtype B HIV-1 epidemic, based on a very large data set. Analyzing the initial viral load and associated pol sequence, both taken before anti-retroviral therapy, of 8,483 patients, we estimate the proportion of variance in viral load explained by viral genetic effects to be 5.7% (CI 2.8–8.6%). We also estimated the change in viral load over time due to selection on the virus and environmental effects to be a decline of 0.05 log10 copies/mL/year, in contrast to recent studies which suggested a reported small increase in viral load over the last 20 years might be due to evolutionary changes in the virus. Our results suggest that in the UK epidemic, subtype B has a small but significant viral genetic effect on viral load. By allowing the analysis of large sample sizes, we expect our approach to be applicable to the estimation of the genetic contribution to traits in many organisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genetically diverse pathogens (such as Human Immunodeficiency virus type 1, HIV-1) are frequently stratified into phylogenetically or immunologically defined subtypes for classification purposes. Computational identification of such subtypes is helpful in surveillance, epidemiological analysis and detection of novel variants, e.g., circulating recombinant forms in HIV-1. A number of conceptually and technically different techniques have been proposed for determining the subtype of a query sequence, but there is not a universally optimal approach. We present a model-based phylogenetic method for automatically subtyping an HIV-1 (or other viral or bacterial) sequence, mapping the location of breakpoints and assigning parental sequences in recombinant strains as well as computing confidence levels for the inferred quantities. Our Subtype Classification Using Evolutionary ALgorithms (SCUEAL) procedure is shown to perform very well in a variety of simulation scenarios, runs in parallel when multiple sequences are being screened, and matches or exceeds the performance of existing approaches on typical empirical cases. We applied SCUEAL to all available polymerase (pol) sequences from two large databases, the Stanford Drug Resistance database and the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database. Comparing with subtypes which had previously been assigned revealed that a minor but substantial (≈5%) fraction of pure subtype sequences may in fact be within- or inter-subtype recombinants. A free implementation of SCUEAL is provided as a module for the HyPhy package and the Datamonkey web server. Our method is especially useful when an accurate automatic classification of an unknown strain is desired, and is positioned to complement and extend faster but less accurate methods. Given the increasingly frequent use of HIV subtype information in studies focusing on the effect of subtype on treatment, clinical outcome, pathogenicity and vaccine design, the importance of accurate, robust and extensible subtyping procedures is clear. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The heterosexual risk group has become the largest HIV infected group in the United Kingdom during the last 10 years, but little is known of the network structure and dynamics of viral transmission in this group. The overwhelming majority of UK heterosexual infections are of non-B HIV subtypes, indicating viruses originating among immigrants from sub-Saharan Africa. The high rate of HIV evolution, combined with the availability of a very high density sample of viral sequences from routine clinical care has allowed the phylodynamics of the epidemic to be investigated for the first time. Sequences of the viral protease and partial reverse transcriptase coding regions from 11,071 patients infected with HIV of non-B subtypes were studied. Of these, 2774 were closely linked to at least one other sequence by nucleotide distance. Including the closest sequences from the global HIV database identified 296 individuals that were in UK-based groups of 3 or more individuals. There were a total of 8 UK-based clusters of 10 or more, comprising 143/2774 (5%) individuals, much lower than the figure of 25% obtained earlier for men who have sex with men (MSM). Sample dates were incorporated into relaxed clock phylogenetic analyses to estimate the dates of internal nodes. From the resulting time-resolved phylogenies, the internode lengths, used as estimates of maximum transmission intervals, had a median of 27 months overall, over twice as long as obtained for MSM (14 months), with only 2% of transmissions occurring in the first 6 months after infection. This phylodynamic analysis of non-B subtype HIV sequences representing over 40% of the estimated UK HIV-infected heterosexual population has revealed heterosexual HIV transmission in the UK is clustered, but on average in smaller groups and is transmitted with slower dynamics than among MSM. More effective intervention to restrict the epidemic may therefore be feasible, given effective diagnosis programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transmission clusters of HIV-1 subtype B uniquely associated with the epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in East Asia have recently been identified. Using the Los Alamos HIV sequence database and the UK HIV drug resistance database, we explored possible links between HIV MSM epidemics in East Asia and the rest of the world by using phylogenetic and molecular clock analyses. We found that JP.MSM.B-1, a subtype B MSM variant that accounts for approximately one-third of the infections among Japanese MSM, was detected worldwide, in the United Kingdom (n=13), mainland China (n=3), the United States, Germany, Canada, and Taiwan (n=1 each). Interestingly, 10 United Kingdom samples plus two from Germany and the United States formed a distinct monophyletic subgroup within JP.MSM.B-1. The estimated divergence times of JP.MSM.B-1 and the latter subgroup were ~1989 and ~1999, respectively. These dates suggest that JP.MSM.B-1 was circulating for many years in Japan among MSM before disseminating to other countries, most likely through global MSM networks. A significant number of other Asian MSM HIV lineages were also detected in the UK HIV drug resistance database. Our study provides insight into the regional and global dispersal of Asian MSM HIV lineages. Further study of these strains is warranted to elucidate viral migration and the interrelationship of HIV epidemics on a global scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic in Ukraine has been driven by a rapid rise among people who inject drugs, but recent studies have shown an increase through sexual transmission., Methods: Protease and reverse transcriptase sequences from 876 new HIV diagnoses (April 2013-March 2015) in Kiev were linked to demographic data. We constructed phylogenetic trees for 794 subtype A1 and 64 subtype B sequences and identified factors associated with transmission clustering. Clusters were defined as ≥2 sequences, ≥80% local branch support, and maximum genetic distance of all sequence pairs in the cluster ≤2.5%. Recent infection was determined through the limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay. Sequences were analyzed for transmitted drug resistance mutations., Results: Thirty percent of subtype A1 and 66% of subtype B sequences clustered. Large clusters (maximum 11 sequences) contained mixed risk groups. In univariate analysis, clustering was significantly associated with subtype B compared to A1 (odds ratio [OR], 4.38 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 2.56-7.50]); risk group (OR, 5.65 [95% CI, 3.27-9.75]) for men who have sex with men compared to heterosexual males; recent, compared to long-standing, infection (OR, 2.72 [95% CI, 1.64-4.52]); reported sex work contact (OR, 1.93 [95% CI, 1.07-3.47]); and younger age groups compared with age ≥36 years (OR, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.10-3.05] for age ≤25 years). Females were associated with lower odds of clustering than heterosexual males (OR, 0.49 [95% CI, .31-.77]). In multivariate analysis, risk group, subtype, and age group were independently associated with clustering (P < .001, P = .007, and P = .033, respectively). Eighteen sequences (2.1%) indicated evidence of transmitted drug resistance., Conclusions: Our findings suggest high levels of transmission and bridging between risk groups.

Objective: The study aim was to determine how resistance testing influences outcome of first-line highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in routine practice in the United Kingdom., Methods: The prevalence of transmitted drug resistance and the genotypic sensitivity score (GSS) of first-line HAART regimens were determined using data from the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort(CHIC) Study. Factors associated with starting a regimen with a reduced GSS and subsequent virological responses were analyzed by logistic and Cox regression., Results: Amongst patients tested in 1999–2006, 116 of 1175 (10%) had $1 resistance mutation; 64 patients (5.4%) had $1 mutation associated with resistance to drugs in the initial HAART regimen and 54 (4.6%) showed a GSS, 3. Factors independently associated with a GSS, 3 were starting HAART in 1999–2001 vs. 2004–2006 (odds ratio = 2.63; 95% confidence interval: 1.19 to 5.83) and use of ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r)–based vs. nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor–based regimens (1.97; 1.06 to 3.64). AGSS .3 was independently associated with virological suppression(hazard ratio for GSS, 3 = 0.60; 95% confidence interval 0.41 to 0.87)., Conclusions: Most patients starting HAART after undergoing resistance testing received regimens with a GSS $3. PI/r-based therapy was often selected in patients with resistance to the nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor backbone. Low GSS predicted poor virological suppression and the association persisted after adjusting for PI/r use.

Background: The use of different lists of resistance mutations has resulted in estimates of transmitted HIV drug resistance (THDR) that are often not comparable., Methods: We estimated the rate of THDR based on the 3 definitions: > or =1 major mutation(s) listed on the International AIDS Society (IAS)-USA drug resistance mutation (DRM) 2006 list; > or =1 surveillance drug resistance mutation(s) (SDRM) on the published list by Shafer et al; and low-level/intermediate/high-level resistance to > or =1 drug(s) according to the Stanford HIVdb interpretation algorithm. Analyses were based on genotypic resistance tests conducted during 1997-2005 on antiretroviral therapy-naive patients and reported to the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database. The effect on THDR rates of revisions to the IAS-DRM list was also examined., Results: Overall, 10.0%, 9.2%, and 10.4% of the 8272 samples available for analysis were classified as having THDR by the IAS-DRM, SDRM, and Stanford definitions, respectively; however, there was discordance for 244 (3%) samples. Changes in the version of the IAS-DRM list over time resulted in 4%-7% differences in the estimated rate of THDR, which increased from 4%-5% during 1997-2000 to 5%-7% during 2001-2005., Conclusions: The choice of genotypic definition had a minor influence on the estimated rate of THDR. The SDRM list is recommended for epidemiological estimates of THDR as it has been designed with such studies in mind.