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49. The Interdecadal Changes of the Relationship Between May‐June and July‐August NWPSH and Their Physical Mechanisms.

Author

Li, Shuai, Kucharski, Fred, Yang, Jie, Gong, ZhiQiang, Zhao, Yuxuan, and Feng, Guolin

Subjects
EL Nino, METEOROLOGISTS, OCEAN, STATISTICAL correlation, WINTER
Abstract

Unlike prior researches focusing on interannual or interdecadal changes of the Northwest Pacific subtropical high (NWPSH), this paper emphasizes the interdecadal changes in the relationship between May‐June and July‐August NWPSH. The correlation coefficients between them are 0.66 (passing the 99.9% confidence level) and 0.12 during 1979–2002 and 2003–2023. Therefore, the May‐June NWPSH has a strong connection with July‐August East Asian precipitation during 1979–2002, but not during 2003–2023. The interdecadal variations in the relationship of NWPSH are due to interdecadal changes of ENSO. During 1979–2002, the eastern‐type ENSO in prior winter, having longer durations, can influence May‐June and July‐August NWPSH and the North Indian Ocean. However, the central‐type ENSO in prior winter only persists it's influence until May‐June, and changes into a Pacific Dipole pattern in July‐August during 2003–2023. Despite the North Indian Ocean continually warms during 2003–2023, the tropical Pacific Dipole offsets its impacts on the NWPSH. Plain Language Summary: The Northwest Pacific Subtropical High (NWPSH) has always been valued by meteorologists due to its important role in the East Asian climate. This paper found that the relationship between the NWPSH in May‐June and July‐August has weakened significantly since 2002. The eastern‐type ENSO, characterized by longer durations, can influence the NWPSH and the North Indian Ocean in May‐June and July‐August before 2002. However, from 2003 to 2023, the influence of the central‐type ENSO only persists until May‐June, transitioning to a Pacific Dipole pattern in July‐August. Therefore, both May‐June and July‐August NWPSH are affected by the North Indian Ocean before 2002. However, the NWPSH in May‐June is affected by the North Indian Ocean and prior winter ENSO after 2002, while the July‐August NWPSH is impacted by the tropical Pacific Dipole. And the tropical Pacific Dipole also offsets the influence of the North Indian Ocean on the NWPSH. This leads to a weakening of the relationship between the NWPSH in May‐June and July‐August. Key Points: The relationship between the Northwest Pacific subtropical high (NWPSH) in May‐June and July‐August has significantly weakened after 2002The reason for weakening relationship of NWPSH is that the persistent eastern ENSO has become a short‐period central ENSO after 2002Central ENSO will become Pacific Dipole mode in summer, which will weaken the influence of North Indian Ocean on NWPSH [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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50. The relationship between the South China Sea summer monsoon onset and North Pacific meridional sea surface temperature anomalies.

Author

Zhao, Yuxuan, Liu, Ruoyu, Yao, Chenwei, Li, Shuai, Wu, Zhiwei, Gong, Zhiqiang, and Feng, Guolin

Subjects
OCEAN temperature, SPRING, ROSSBY waves, MONSOONS, EL Nino
Abstract

This study investigates the connection between significant sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific during boreal spring (February–April, FMA) and the subsequent South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset. The SST anomalies, similar to the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), referred to as the PMM+ mode, are defined to examine the new influencing factor on the SCSSM onset. Our findings reveal that the (February–March–April, FMA) PMM+ has a noteworthy positive correlation with the subsequent May SCSSM onset date, with this correlation being minimally affected by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during preceding winter. A robust positive PMM+ in boreal spring can be persist until May via atmosphere–ocean interaction. The cooling area over Western North Pacific would reduce precipitation heating, thereby generating Rossby waves that reinforce the formation of the anomalous anticyclone over the SCS. As a result, easterly winds and suppressed convection prevail over the SCS, making the SCSSM break out later than normal. Furthermore, the amplification of anticyclonic vorticity anomalies also strengthens the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) stronger and shifts its position further westward compared to normal years, thereby blocking active convection to the west of the SCS. Given the weakened relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the SCSSM onset in recent years, the PMM+ could be considered as a promising preceding signal for the SCSSM onset, thus holding significant implications for the SCSSM prediction efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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