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Understanding why some renewable resources are overharvested while others are conserved remains an important challenge. Most explanations focus on institutional or ecological differences among resources. Here, we provide theoretical and empirical evidence that conservation and overharvest can be alternative stable states within the same exclusive-resource management system because of path-dependent processes, including slow institutional adaptation. Surprisingly, this theory predicts that the alternative states of strong conservation or overharvest are most likely for resources that were previously thought to be easily conserved under optimal management or even open access. Quantitative analyses of harvest rates from 217 intensely managed fisheries supports the predictions. Fisheries harvest rates also showed transient dynamics characteristic of path dependence, as well as convergence to the alternative stable state after unexpected transitions. This statistical evidence for path dependence differs from previous empirical support that was based largely on case studies, experiments, and distributional analyses. Alternative stable states in conservation appear likely outcomes for many cooperatively managed renewable resources, which implies that achieving conservation outcomes hinges on harnessing existing policy tools to navigate transitions.

Background: Plastics have conveyed great benefits to humanity and made possible some of the most significant advances of modern civilization in fields as diverse as medicine, electronics, aerospace, construction, food packaging, and sports. It is now clear, however, that plastics are also responsible for significant harms to human health, the economy, and the earth’s environment. These harms occur at every stage of the plastic life cycle, from extraction of the coal, oil, and gas that are its main feedstocks through to ultimate disposal into the environment. The extent of these harms not been systematically assessed, their magnitude not fully quantified, and their economic costs not comprehensively counted. Goals: The goals of this Minderoo-Monaco Commission on Plastics and Human Health are to comprehensively examine plastics’ impacts across their life cycle on: (1) human health and well-being; (2) the global environment, especially the ocean; (3) the economy; and (4) vulnerable populations—the poor, minorities, and the world’s children. On the basis of this examination, the Commission offers science-based recommendations designed to support development of a Global Plastics Treaty, protect human health, and save lives. Report Structure: This Commission report contains seven Sections. Following an Introduction, Section 2 presents a narrative review of the processes involved in plastic production, use, and disposal and notes the hazards to human health and the environment associated with each of these stages. Section 3 describes plastics’ impacts on the ocean and notes the potential for plastic in the ocean to enter the marine food web and result in human exposure. Section 4 details plastics’ impacts on human health. Section 5 presents a first-order estimate of plastics’ health-related economic costs. Section 6 examines the intersection between plastic, social inequity, and environmental injustice. Section 7 presents the Commission’s findings and recommendations. Plastics: Plastics are complex, highly heterogeneous, synthetic chemical materials. Over 98% of plastics are produced from fossil carbon- coal, oil and gas. Plastics are comprised of a carbon-based polymer backbone and thousands of additional chemicals that are incorporated into polymers to convey specific properties such as color, flexibility, stability, water repellence, flame retardation, and ultraviolet resistance. Many of these added chemicals are highly toxic. They include carcinogens, neurotoxicants and endocrine disruptors such as phthalates, bisphenols, per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), brominated flame retardants, and organophosphate flame retardants. They are integral components of plastic and are responsible for many of plastics’ harms to human health and the environment. Global plastic production has increased almost exponentially since World War II, and in this time more than 8,300 megatons (Mt) of plastic have been manufactured. Annual production volume has grown from under 2 Mt in 1950 to 460 Mt in 2019, a 230-fold increase, and is on track to triple by 2060. More than half of all plastic ever made has been produced since 2002. Single-use plastics account for 35–40% of current plastic production and represent the most rapidly growing segment of plastic manufacture. Explosive recent growth in plastics production reflects a deliberate pivot by the integrated multinational fossil-carbon corporations that produce coal, oil and gas and that also manufacture plastics. These corporations are reducing their production of fossil fuels and increasing plastics manufacture. The two principal factors responsible for this pivot are decreasing global demand for carbon-based fuels due to increases in ‘green’ energy, and massive expansion of oil and gas production due to fracking. Plastic manufacture is energy-intensive and contributes significantly to climate change. At present, plastic production is responsible for an estimated 3.7% of global greenhouse gas emissions, more than the contribution of Brazil. This fraction is projected to increase to 4.5% by 2060 if current trends continue unchecked. Plastic Life Cycle: The plastic life cycle has three phases: production, use, and disposal. In production, carbon feedstocks—coal, gas, and oil—are transformed through energy-intensive, catalytic processes into a vast array of products. Plastic use occurs in every aspect of modern life and results in widespread human exposure to the chemicals contained in plastic. Single-use plastics constitute the largest portion of current use, followed by synthetic fibers and construction. Plastic disposal is highly inefficient, with recovery and recycling rates below 10% globally. The result is that an estimated 22 Mt of plastic waste enters the environment each year, much of it single-use plastic and are added to the more than 6 gigatons of plastic waste that have accumulated since 1950. Strategies for disposal of plastic waste include controlled and uncontrolled landfilling, open burning, thermal conversion, and export. Vast quantities of plastic waste are exported each year from high-income to low-income countries, where it accumulates in landfills, pollutes air and water, degrades vital ecosystems, befouls beaches and estuaries, and harms human health—environmental injustice on a global scale. Plastic-laden e-waste is particularly problematic. Environmental Findings: Plastics and plastic-associated chemicals are responsible for widespread pollution. They contaminate aquatic (marine and freshwater), terrestrial, and atmospheric environments globally. The ocean is the ultimate destination for much plastic, and plastics are found throughout the ocean, including coastal regions, the sea surface, the deep sea, and polar sea ice. Many plastics appear to resist breakdown in the ocean and could persist in the global environment for decades. Macro- and micro-plastic particles have been identified in hundreds of marine species in all major taxa, including species consumed by humans. Trophic transfer of microplastic particles and the chemicals within them has been demonstrated. Although microplastic particles themselves (>10 µm) appear not to undergo biomagnification, hydrophobic plastic-associated chemicals bioaccumulate in marine animals and biomagnify in marine food webs. The amounts and fates of smaller microplastic and nanoplastic particles (MNPs

This article details a correction to: Landrigan PJ, Raps H, Cropper M, et al. The Minderoo-Monaco Commission on Plastics and Human Health. Annals of Global Health. 2023; 89(1): 23. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5334/aogh.4056.

"Cap and trade" is one of the most innovative policy options developed by environmental economists. By placing a cap on a social bad and allowing firms to buy and sell the right to generate it, policymakers combine government intervention with market-based incentives to improve welfare and internalize the externality. Such programs represent a great opportunity for instructors to show students how economic theory is used in the real world. Students can learn several important tenets of economics by playing an in-class game based on musical chairs, which creates a market for pollution using a mobile app or paper-based interaction. This active learning method engages students and improves comprehension of price formation, gains from trade, voluntary response to incentives, and an important environmental policy.

COVID-19 has shown that the consequences of a pandemic are wider-reaching than cases and deaths. Morbidity and mortality are important direct costs, but infectious diseases generate other direct and indirect benefits and costs as the economy responds to these shocks: some people lose, others gain and people modify their behaviours in ways that redistribute these benefits and costs. These additional effects feedback on health outcomes to create a complicated interdependent system of health and non-health outcomes. As a result, interventions primarily intended to reduce the burden of disease can have wider societal and economic effects and more complicated and unintended, but possibly not anticipable, system-level influences on the epidemiological dynamics themselves. Capturing these effects requires a systems approach that encompasses more direct health outcomes. Towards this end, in this article we discuss the importance of integrating epidemiology and economic models, setting out the key challenges which such a merging of epidemiology and economics presents. We conclude that understanding people’s behaviour in the context of interventions is key to developing a more complete and integrated economic-epidemiological approach; and a wider perspective on the benefits and costs of interventions (and who these fall upon) will help society better understand how to respond to future pandemics.

Abstract Face masks are an important component in controlling COVID-19, and policy orders to wear masks are common. However, behavioral responses are seldom additive, and exchanging one protective behavior for another could undermine the COVID-19 policy response. We use SafeGraph smart device location data and variation in the date that US states and counties issued face mask mandates as a set of natural experiments to investigate risk compensation behavior. We compare time at home and the number of visits to public locations before and after face mask orders conditional on multiple statistical controls. We find that face mask orders lead to risk compensation behavior. Americans subject to the mask orders spend 11–24 fewer minutes at home on average and increase visits to some commercial locations—most notably restaurants, which are a high-risk location. It is unclear if this would lead to a net increase or decrease in transmission. However, it is clear that mask orders would be an important part of an economic recovery if people otherwise overestimate the risk of visiting public places.

BackgroundTheory suggests that individual behavioral responses impact the spread of flu-like illnesses, but this has been difficult to empirically characterize. Social distancing is an important component of behavioral response, though analyses have been limited by a lack of behavioral data. Our objective is to use media data to characterize social distancing behavior in order to empirically inform explanatory and predictive epidemiological models.MethodsWe use data on variation in home television viewing as a proxy for variation in time spent in the home and, by extension, contact. This behavioral proxy is imperfect but appealing since information on a rich and representative sample is collected using consistent techniques across time and most major cities. We study the April-May 2009 outbreak of A/H1N1 in Central Mexico and examine the dynamic behavioral response in aggregate and contrast the observed patterns of various demographic subgroups. We develop and calibrate a dynamic behavioral model of disease transmission informed by the proxy data on daily variation in contact rates and compare it to a standard (non-adaptive) model and a fixed effects model that crudely captures behavior.ResultsWe find that after a demonstrable initial behavioral response (consistent with social distancing) at the onset of the outbreak, there was attenuation in the response before the conclusion of the public health intervention. We find substantial differences in the behavioral response across age subgroups and socioeconomic levels. We also find that the dynamic behavioral and fixed effects transmission models better account for variation in new confirmed cases, generate more stable estimates of the baseline rate of transmission over time and predict the number of new cases over a short horizon with substantially less error.ConclusionsResults suggest that A/H1N1 had an innate transmission potential greater than previously thought but this was masked by behavioral responses. Observed differences in behavioral response across demographic groups indicate a potential benefit from targeting social distancing outreach efforts.

ABSTRACT Pooled testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) detection is instrumental for increasing test capacity while decreasing test cost. Pooled testing programs permit sustainable, long-term surveillance measures, which are essential for the early detection of virus resurgence in communities or the emergence of variants of concern. While numerous pooled approaches have been proposed to increase test capacity, uptake by laboratories has been limited. On 9 December 2020, we invited 362 U.S. laboratories that inquired about the Yale School of Public Health SalivaDirect test to participate in a survey to evaluate testing constraints and pooling strategies for SARS-CoV-2 testing. The survey was distributed using Qualtrics, and three reminders were sent. The survey closed on 21 January 2021. Of 93 responses received (25.7% response rate), 90 were from Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA)-certified laboratories conducting SARS-CoV-2 testing. The remaining three were excluded from the analyses. Responses indicated that the major barriers to the uptake of pooled testing in the United States may not simply be the number of tests a laboratory can process per day, but rather the lack of clear protocols and adequate resources; laboratories are working with fixed physical and human capital constraints. Importantly, laboratories across the country are heterogeneous in infrastructure and workflow. The need for SARS-CoV-2 testing will remain for years to come. Testing programs can be maintained through pooled PCR testing strategies, and while statisticians, operations researchers, and others with expertise in sampling design have important value to add, laboratories require support on how to transition from traditional diagnostic testing to pooled surveillance. IMPORTANCE While numerous pooled SARS-CoV-2 testing approaches have been described in an effort to increase testing capacity and decrease test prices, uptake by laboratories has been limited. Responses to our survey of United States-based laboratories highlight the importance of consulting end-users—those that solutions are being designed for—so challenges can be addressed in a manner tailored to meet the specific needs out in the field. It may be surprising to those designing pooled testing strategies to learn that laboratories view pooling as more time-consuming than testing samples individually, and therefore that it is thought to create delays in test reporting.

Mathematical epidemiology, one of the oldest and richest areas in mathematical biology, has significantly enhanced our understanding of how pathogens emerge, evolve, and spread. Classical epidemiological models, the standard for predicting and managing the spread of infectious disease, assume that contacts between susceptible and infectious individuals depend on their relative frequency in the population. The behavioral factors that underpin contact rates are not generally addressed. There is, however, an emerging a class of models that addresses the feedbacks between infectious disease dynamics and the behavioral decisions driving host contact. Referred to as "economic epidemiology" or "epidemiological economics," the approach explores the determinants of decisions about the number and type of contacts made by individuals, using insights and methods from economics. We show how the approach has the potential both to improve predictions of the course of infectious disease, and to support development of novel approaches to infectious disease management.

We analyzed feasibility of pooling saliva samples for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 testing and found that sensitivity decreased according to pool size: 5 samples/pool, 7.4% reduction; 10 samples/pool, 11.1%; and 20 samples/pool, 14.8%. When virus prevalence is >2.6%, pools of 5 require fewer tests; when

The G protein-coupled estrogen receptor (GPER), also known as GPR30, is a widely conserved 7-transmembrane-domain protein which has been identified as a novel 17β-estradiol-binding protein that is structurally distinct from the classic oestrogen receptors (ERα and ERβ). There are still conflicting data regarding the exact role and the natural ligand of GPER/GPR30 in reproductive tracts as both male and female knock-out mice are fertile and have no abnormalities of reproductive organs. Testicular germ cell cancers (TGCCs) are the most common malignancy in young males and the most frequent cause of death from solid tumors in this age group. Clinical and experimental studies suggested that estrogens participate in the physiological and pathological control of male germ cell proliferation. In human seminoma cell line, while 17β-estradiol (E2) inhibits in vitro cell proliferation through an ERβ-dependent mechanism, an impermeable E2 conjugate (E2 coupled to BSA), in vitro cell proliferation is stimulated by activating ERK1/2 and protein kinase A through a membrane GPCR that we further identified as GPER/GPR30. The same effect was observed with low but environmentally relevant doses of BPA, an estrogenic endocrine disrupting compound. Furthermore, GPER/GPR30 is specifically overexpressed in seminomas but not in non-seminomas and this overexpression is correlated with an ERβ-downregulation. This GPER/GPR30 overexpression could be linked to some genetic variations, as single nucleotide polymorphisms, which was also reported in other hormone-dependent cancers. We will review here the implication of GPER/GPR30 in TGCCs pathophysiology and the arguments to consider GPER/GPR30 as a potential therapeutic target in humans.

The success of market-based mechanisms in reducing conflicts and internalizing externalities depends on their ability to clarify property rights amongst heterogenous resource users. We investigate the effectiveness of novel markets in achieving their goals using the case study of grazing markets in Laikipia County, Kenya. In this system, sheep- and goat (shoat)- and cattle-rearing pastoralists negotiate land access for cattle with neighboring cattle ranchers. Using data on pastoralists’ livestock and contracting preferences and a model of pastoral herd management, we show that contracting for cattle grazing access on private property alters relative input shadow prices for grazing resources in communal pastoral lands, ultimately resulting in relieved cattle grazing pressure. However, the permitting process is less attractive to pastoralists who prefer rearing shoats instead of cattle. These shoat-rearing pastoralists instead fill some of the vacated space with shoats instead of purchasing permits themselves. This leakage offsets some of the conservation benefits arising from the contracting program and results in a greater share of shoats in the communal herd mix. Approximately 0.59 cows’ worth of free space persists on the commons per permit sold, indicating reduced grazing pressure, but this represents a small proportion (3.8%) of the total livestock in the system. The narrow introduction of the cattle-focused permit market and lack of strong management institutions on the commons dampen the permitting program’s conservation benefits, necessitating further interventions. Alleviating these factors and dramatically scaling up the program has the potential to turn the permitting system into a successful conservation tool.