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IntroductionLocal biodiversity is increasing in many temperate and subtropical waters due to climate change. It is often caused by shifting fish distributions, thus the biodiversity gradient, from lower to higher latitudes. However, these shifts in distributions do not occur uniformly across all species. Consequently, communities are not only shifting their spatial distributions, but species compositions are also changing. We investigated spatiotemporal differences in the compositions of fish species in the bays of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and identified species that contribute to the temporal changes.MethodsWe used fish count data collected using gillnets in eight major bays, encompassing over 600 km of coastline, during spring and fall seasons from 1982 to 2019. The nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) on the Bray-Curtis dissimilarity index among species composition vectors was used to detect the differences in species composition, and the similarity percentages (SIMPER) were used to determine the contribution of species to the differences. ResultsThe result shows there was a gradual change in species composition in all bays over the years, and the composition was different among bays and seasons. The species contributing to the temporal changes included those that are expanding (e.g., Common snook, Centropomus undecimalis, and Smallscale fat snook, C. parallelus) as well as retracting (e.g., Southern flounder, Paralichthys lethostigma, and Spanish mackerel, Scomberomorus maculatus) their distributions toward the north. The species observed only in recent years in these bays tended to have a preference for warmer water (e.g., Gulf pipefish, Syngnathus scovelli, and Chain pipefish, S. louisiana). DiscussionThe results are consistent with the potential effects of climate change. However, the salinity of the bays in the study area generally exhibits an increasing trend from the northern to southern bays. The spatial salinity gradient has a substantial impact on species compositions, indicating that species distributions are influenced by multiple environmental conditions. This complexity makes our ability to accurately predict future species compositions under changing environmental conditions challenging.

Abstract Climate change is causing shifts in the geographic distributions of coastal fish species toward higher latitudes. However, local fish communities found in higher latitudes today are not simply those found in lower latitudes in the past because the sensitivity of species to various environmental conditions is different. Responses of fish to environmental conditions differ depending on their life‐history traits such as the maximum population growth rate, age of maturity, and generation time because these traits are constrained by environmental conditions. Here, we investigate associations among temporal patterns in presence–absence (incidence) data, life‐history traits of species, and environmental conditions to elucidate the potential mechanisms behind the effects of climate change on coastal fish communities. In this study, fish monitoring data collected semi‐monthly between 1982 and 2019 from eight major bays in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico were analyzed with generalized additive models. Smooth patterns over seasons and years in the incidence data of 77 species were estimated, and the data were associated with environmental variables. Further, these temporal patterns were associated with the life‐history traits of species. The results show that species that are more common in the summer months (non‐winter spawners) tend to exhibit an increasing trend and that species common during the spring (winter spawners) tend to exhibit a decreasing trend, suggesting the importance of summer conditions in driving tropicalization. Salinity had significant effects on species in general, and longer‐lived species tended to be affected by temperature. These results suggest seasonal differences in the effects of environmental conditions and variation in sensitivity to environmental conditions among different life‐history strategies. These findings represent major steps toward understanding the mechanisms behind the tropicalization of estuarine communities.

Abstract Climate change causes marine species to shift and expand their distributions, often leading to changes in species diversity. While increased biodiversity is often assumed to confer positive benefits on ecosystem functioning, many examples have shown that the relationship is specific to the ecosystem and function studied and is often driven by functional composition and diversity. In the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, tropical species expansion was shown to have increased estuarine fish and invertebrate diversity; however, it is not yet known how those increases have affected functional diversity. To address this knowledge gap, two metrics of functional diversity, functional richness (FRic) and functional dispersion (FDis), were estimated in each year for a 38‐year study period, for each of the eight major bays along the Texas coast. Then, the community‐weighted mean (CWM) trait values for each of the functional traits are calculated to assess how functional composition has changed through time. Finally, principal component analysis (PCA) was used to identify species contributing most to changing functional diversity. We found significant increases in log‐functional richness in both spring and fall, and significant decreases in functional dispersion in spring, suggesting that although new functional types are entering the bays, assemblages are becoming more dominated by similar functional types. Community‐weighted trait means showed significant increases in the relative abundance of traits associated with large, long‐lived, higher trophic level species, suggesting an increase in periodic and equilibrium life‐history strategists within the bays. PCA identified mainly native sciaenid species as contributing most to functional diversity trends although several tropical species also show increasing trends through time. We conclude that the climate‐driven species expansion in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico led to a decrease in functional dispersion due to increasing relative abundance of species with similar life‐history characteristics, and thus the communities have become more functionally homogeneous.

This study investigated the contribution of shrimp stocks in supporting the production of valuable predator species. Fishery-independent data on white shrimp, brown shrimp, and selected fish species (spotted seatrout, red drum, and southern flounder) were collected from 1986 to 2014 by the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, and converted to catch-per-unit effort (CPUE). Here, the associations between the CPUEs of fish species as predators and those of shrimp species as prey in each sampled bay and sampling season were analyzed using co-integration analysis and Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR). Co-integration analysis revealed significant associations between 31 of 70 possible fish/shrimp pairings. The analysis also revealed discernible seasonal and spatial patterns. White shrimp in August and brown shrimp in May were associated with fish CPUEs in bays located along the lower coast of Texas, whereas white shrimp in November was more strongly associated with fish CPUEs in bays located on the upper coast. This suggests the possible influence of latitudinal environmental gradient. The results of the PLSR, on the other hand, were not conclusive. This may reflect the high statistical error rates inherent to the analysis of short non-stationary time series. Co-integration is a robust method when analyzing non-stationary time series, and a majority of time series in this study was non-stationary. Based on our co-integration results, we conclude that the CPUE data show significant associations between shrimp abundance and the three predator fish species in the tested regions.