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5. Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Author

Pereira, H.M., Martins, I.S., Rosa, I., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Hurtt, G., Quoss, L., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Bakkenes, M., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J., Jetz, W., Johnson, J., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., De Palma, A., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., Alkemade, R., Pereira, H.M., Martins, I.S., Rosa, I., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Hurtt, G., Quoss, L., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Bakkenes, M., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J., Jetz, W., Johnson, J., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., De Palma, A., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., and Alkemade, R.

Abstract

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Published
2024
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8. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures

Author

Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R., den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D., Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C., Scholes, R., Schoolenberg, M., Shin, Y.-J., Stehfest, E., Stephenson, F., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Wabnitz, C., José Alava, J., Cuadros-Casanova, I., Davies, K., Gasalla, M., Halouani, G., Harfoot, M., Hashimoto, S., Hickler, T., Hirsch, T., Kolomytsev, G., Miller, B., Ohashi, H., Gabriela Palomo, M., Popp, A., Paco Remme, R., Saito, O., Rashid Sumalia, U., Willcock, S., Pereira, H., Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R., den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D., Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C., Scholes, R., Schoolenberg, M., Shin, Y.-J., Stehfest, E., Stephenson, F., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Wabnitz, C., José Alava, J., Cuadros-Casanova, I., Davies, K., Gasalla, M., Halouani, G., Harfoot, M., Hashimoto, S., Hickler, T., Hirsch, T., Kolomytsev, G., Miller, B., Ohashi, H., Gabriela Palomo, M., Popp, A., Paco Remme, R., Saito, O., Rashid Sumalia, U., Willcock, S., and Pereira, H.

Abstract

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people, and quality of life.

Published
2023
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10. Essential Biodiversity Variables

Author

Pereira, H. M., Ferrier, S., Walters, M., Geller, G. N., Jongman, R. H. G., Scholes, R. J., Bruford, M. W., Brummitt, N., Butchart, S. H. M., Cardoso, A. C., Coops, N. C., Dulloo, E., Faith, D. P., Freyhof, J., Gregory, R. D., Heip, C., Höft, R., Hurtt, G., Jetz, W., Karp, D. S., McGeoch, M. A., Obura, D., Onoda, Y., Pettorelli, N., Reyers, B., Sayre, R., Scharlemann, J. P. W., Stuart, S. N., Turak, E., Walpole, M., and Wegmann, M.

Published
2013
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11. Expert perspectives on global biodiversity loss and its drivers and impacts on people

Author

Isbell, F., Balvanera, P., Mori, A.S., He, J.-S., Bullock, J.M., Regmi, G.R., Seabloom, E.W., Ferrier, S., Sala, O.E., Guerrero-Ramírez, N.R., Tavella, J., Larkin, D.J., Schmid, B., Outhwaite, C.L., Pramual, P., Borer, E.T., Loreau, M., Omotoriogun, T.C., Obura, D.O., Anderson, M., Portales-Reyes, C., Kirkman, K., Vergara, P.M., Clark, Adam Thomas, Komatsu, K.J., Petchey, O.L., Weiskopf, S.R., Williams, L.J., Collins, S.L., Eisenhauer, N., Trisos, C.H., Renard, D., Wright, A.J., Tripathi, P., Cowles, J., Byrnes, J.E.K., Reich, P.B., Purvis, A., Sharip, Z., O’Connor, M.I., Kazanski, C.E., Haddad, N.M., Soto, E.H., Dee, L.E., Díaz, S., Zirbel, C.R., Avolio, M.L., Wang, S., Ma, Z., Liang, J., Farah, H.C., Johnson, J.A., Miller, B.W., Hautier, Y., Smith, M.D., Knops, J.M.H., Myers, B.J.E., Harmáčková, Z.V., Cortés, J., Harfoot, M.B.J., Gonzalez, A., Newbold, T., Oehri, J., Mazón, M., Dobbs, C., Palmer, M.S., Isbell, F., Balvanera, P., Mori, A.S., He, J.-S., Bullock, J.M., Regmi, G.R., Seabloom, E.W., Ferrier, S., Sala, O.E., Guerrero-Ramírez, N.R., Tavella, J., Larkin, D.J., Schmid, B., Outhwaite, C.L., Pramual, P., Borer, E.T., Loreau, M., Omotoriogun, T.C., Obura, D.O., Anderson, M., Portales-Reyes, C., Kirkman, K., Vergara, P.M., Clark, Adam Thomas, Komatsu, K.J., Petchey, O.L., Weiskopf, S.R., Williams, L.J., Collins, S.L., Eisenhauer, N., Trisos, C.H., Renard, D., Wright, A.J., Tripathi, P., Cowles, J., Byrnes, J.E.K., Reich, P.B., Purvis, A., Sharip, Z., O’Connor, M.I., Kazanski, C.E., Haddad, N.M., Soto, E.H., Dee, L.E., Díaz, S., Zirbel, C.R., Avolio, M.L., Wang, S., Ma, Z., Liang, J., Farah, H.C., Johnson, J.A., Miller, B.W., Hautier, Y., Smith, M.D., Knops, J.M.H., Myers, B.J.E., Harmáčková, Z.V., Cortés, J., Harfoot, M.B.J., Gonzalez, A., Newbold, T., Oehri, J., Mazón, M., Dobbs, C., and Palmer, M.S.

Abstract

Despite substantial progress in understanding global biodiversity loss, major taxonomic and geographic knowledge gaps remain. Decision makers often rely on expert judgement to fill knowledge gaps, but are rarely able to engage with sufficiently large and diverse groups of specialists. To improve understanding of the perspectives of thousands of biodiversity experts worldwide, we conducted a survey and asked experts to focus on the taxa and freshwater, terrestrial, or marine ecosystem with which they are most familiar. We found several points of overwhelming consensus (for instance, multiple drivers of biodiversity loss interact synergistically) and important demographic and geographic differences in specialists’ perspectives and estimates. Experts from groups that are underrepresented in biodiversity science, including women and those from the Global South, recommended different priorities for conservation solutions, with less emphasis on acquiring new protected areas, and provided higher estimates of biodiversity loss and its impacts. This may in part be because they disproportionately study the most highly threatened taxa and habitats.

Published
2022

12. Achieving global biodiversity goals by 2050 requires urgent and integrated actions

Author

Leadley, P., Gonzalez, A., Obura, D., Krug, C.B., Londoño-Murcia, M.C., Millette, K.L., Radulovici, A., Rankovic, A., Shannon, L.J., Archer, E., Armah, F.A., Bax, N., Chaudhari, K., Costello, M.J., Dávalos, L.M., Roque, F., DeClerck, F., Dee, L.E., Essl, F., Ferrier, S., Genovesi, P., Guariguata, M.R., Hashimoto, S., Ifejika Speranza, C., Isbell, F., Kok, M., Lavery, S.D., Leclere, D., Loyola, R., Lwasa, S., McGeoch, M., Mori, A.S., Nicholson, E., Ochoa, J.M., Öllerer, K., Polasky, S., Rondinini, C., Schroer, S., Selomane, O., Shen, X., Strassburg, B., Sumaila, U.R., Tittensor, D.P., Turak, E., Urbina, L., Vallejos, M., Vázquez-Domínguez, E., Verburg, P.H., Visconti, P., Woodley, S., Xu, J., Leadley, P., Gonzalez, A., Obura, D., Krug, C.B., Londoño-Murcia, M.C., Millette, K.L., Radulovici, A., Rankovic, A., Shannon, L.J., Archer, E., Armah, F.A., Bax, N., Chaudhari, K., Costello, M.J., Dávalos, L.M., Roque, F., DeClerck, F., Dee, L.E., Essl, F., Ferrier, S., Genovesi, P., Guariguata, M.R., Hashimoto, S., Ifejika Speranza, C., Isbell, F., Kok, M., Lavery, S.D., Leclere, D., Loyola, R., Lwasa, S., McGeoch, M., Mori, A.S., Nicholson, E., Ochoa, J.M., Öllerer, K., Polasky, S., Rondinini, C., Schroer, S., Selomane, O., Shen, X., Strassburg, B., Sumaila, U.R., Tittensor, D.P., Turak, E., Urbina, L., Vallejos, M., Vázquez-Domínguez, E., Verburg, P.H., Visconti, P., Woodley, S., and Xu, J.

Abstract

Governments are negotiating actions intended to halt biodiversity loss and put it on a path to recovery by 2050. Here, we show that bending the curve for biodiversity is possible, but only if actions are implemented urgently and in an integrated manner. Connecting these actions to biodiversity outcomes and tracking progress remain a challenge.

Published
2022

15. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: modelling Nature Futures

Author

Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R, den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D., Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C., Scholes, R., Schoolenberg, M., Shin, Y., Stehfest, E., Stephenson, F., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Wabnitz, C., Alava, J., Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Davies, K., Gasalla, M., Halouani, G., Harfoot, M., Hashimoto, S., Hickler, T., Hirsch, T., Kolomytsev, G., Miller, B., Ohashi, H., Palomo, M., Popp, A., Remme, R., Saito, O., Sumaila, R., Willcock, S., Pereira, H., Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R, den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D., Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C., Scholes, R., Schoolenberg, M., Shin, Y., Stehfest, E., Stephenson, F., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Wabnitz, C., Alava, J., Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Davies, K., Gasalla, M., Halouani, G., Harfoot, M., Hashimoto, S., Hickler, T., Hirsch, T., Kolomytsev, G., Miller, B., Ohashi, H., Palomo, M., Popp, A., Remme, R., Saito, O., Sumaila, R., Willcock, S., and Pereira, H.

Abstract

The expert group on scenarios and models of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services initiated the development of the Nature Futures Framework for developing scenarios of positive futures for nature, to help inform assessments of policy options. This new scenarios and modelling Framework seeks to open up diversity and plurality of perspectives by differentiating three main value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature (intrinsic values of nature), Nature for Society (instrumental values) and Nature as Culture (relational values). This paper describes how the Nature Futures Framework can be applied in modelling to support policy processes by identifying key interventions for change in realizing a diversity of desirable futures. First, the paper introduces and elaborates on key building blocks of the framework for developing qualitative scenarios and translating them into quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature and the Nature Futures frontier representing diverse preferences, ii) incorporating mutual and key feedbacks of social-ecological systems in Nature Futures scenarios, and iii) indicators describing the evolution of social-ecological systems with complementary knowledge and data. This paper then presents three possible application approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios to support the i) review, ii) implementation and iii) design phases of policy processes. The main objective of this paper is to facilitate the integration of the relational values of nature in models, through improved indicators and other forms of evidence, and to strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, ecosystems, nature’s contributions to people, and quality of life to identify science- and knowledge-based interventions and to enhance ecological understanding for achieving sustainable futures. The paper aims at stimulating the development of new scenarios and models based on this new framework by a wide c

Published
2021

18. Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy

Author

Leclère, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, Adriana, DeClerck, F.A.J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J.C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G.M., Ohashi, H., Popp, Alexander, Purvis, A., Schipper, A.M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., Meijl, H. van, Zeist, W.J. van, Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlík, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A.J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.B.N., Vuuren, D.P. van, Ware, C., Watson, J.E.M., Wu, W., Young, L., Leclère, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, Adriana, DeClerck, F.A.J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J.C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G.M., Ohashi, H., Popp, Alexander, Purvis, A., Schipper, A.M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., Meijl, H. van, Zeist, W.J. van, Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlík, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A.J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.B.N., Vuuren, D.P. van, Ware, C., Watson, J.E.M., Wu, W., and Young, L.

Abstract

Contains fulltext : 228862.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access)

Published
2020

19. PRESENCE-ONLY AND PRESENCE-ABSENCE DATA FOR COMPARING SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING METHODS

Author

Elith, J, Graham, C, Valavi, R, Abegg, M, Bruce, C, Ford, A, Guisan, A, Hijmans, RJ, Huettmann, F, Lohmann, L, Loiselle, B, Moritz, C, Overton, J, Peterson, AT, Phillips, S, Richardson, K, Williams, S, Wiser, SK, Wohlgemuth, T, Zimmermann, NE, Ferrier, S, Elith, J, Graham, C, Valavi, R, Abegg, M, Bruce, C, Ford, A, Guisan, A, Hijmans, RJ, Huettmann, F, Lohmann, L, Loiselle, B, Moritz, C, Overton, J, Peterson, AT, Phillips, S, Richardson, K, Williams, S, Wiser, SK, Wohlgemuth, T, Zimmermann, NE, and Ferrier, S

Abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict and study distributions of species. Many different modeling methods and associated algorithms are used and continue to emerge. It is important to understand how different approaches perform, particularly when applied to species occurrence records that were not gathered in struc­tured surveys (e.g. opportunistic records). This need motivated a large-scale, collaborative effort, published in 2006, that aimed to create objective comparisons of algorithm performance. As a benchmark, and to facilitate future comparisons of approaches, here we publish that dataset: point location records for 226 anonymized species from six regions of the world, with accompanying predictor variables in raster (grid) and point formats. A particularly interesting characteristic of this dataset is that independent presence-absence survey data are available for evaluation alongside the presence-only species occurrence data intended for modeling. The dataset is available on Open Science Framework and as an R package and can be used as a benchmark for modeling approaches and for testing new ways to evaluate the accuracy of SDMs.

Published
2020

20. Challenges in producing policy-relevant global scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services

Author

Rosa, I.M.D., Purvis, A., Alkemade, R., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Ferrier, S., Guerra, C.A., Hurtt, G., Kim, H., Leadley, Paul, Martins, I.S., Popp, Alexander, Schipper, Aafke M., Vuuren, Detlef P. van, Pereira, H.M., Rosa, I.M.D., Purvis, A., Alkemade, R., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Ferrier, S., Guerra, C.A., Hurtt, G., Kim, H., Leadley, Paul, Martins, I.S., Popp, Alexander, Schipper, Aafke M., Vuuren, Detlef P. van, and Pereira, H.M.

Abstract

Contains fulltext : 217156.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)

Published
2020

21. Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Author

Pereira, H.M., Rosa, I.M.D., Martins, I.S., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Hurtt, G., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C.A., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, Petr, Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J.R., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A.M., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.N.B., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M.V., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F, Alkemade, R., Pereira, H.M., Rosa, I.M.D., Martins, I.S., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Hurtt, G., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C.A., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, Petr, Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J.R., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A.M., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.N.B., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M.V., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F, and Alkemade, R.

Abstract

Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Published
2020

22. Reversing terrestrial biodiversity declines due to habitat loss: a multi-model assessment

Author

Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J., Dürauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Vuuren, D., van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., and Young, L.

Published
2019

23. ECOLOGY: Essential Biodiversity Variables

Author

Pereira, H. M., Ferrier, S., Walters, M., Geller, G. N., Jongman, R. H. G., Scholes, R. J., Bruford, M. W., Brummitt, N., Butchart, S. H. M., Cardoso, A. C., Coops, N. C., Dulloo, E., Faith, D. P., Freyhof, J., Gregory, R. D., Heip, C., Höft, R., Hurtt, G., Jetz, W., Karp, D. S., McGeoch, M. A., Obura, D., Onoda, Y., Pettorelli, N., Reyers, B., Sayre, R., Scharlemann, J. P. W., Stuart, S. N., Turak, E., Walpole, M., and Wegmann, M.

Published
2013
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24. An evaluation of the predictive performance of distributional models for flora and fauna in north-east New South Wales

Author

Pearce, J., Ferrier, S., and Scotts, D.

Subjects
New South Wales -- Natural history, Vegetation dynamics -- Models, Animals -- Dispersal, Plants -- Dispersal, Animal populations -- Models, Regression analysis -- Usage, Environmental issues
Abstract

Logistic regression analysis is used to link field survey information to geographical and environmental predictors to create models for 153 plant and animal population dynamics in the northeast region of New South Wales, Australia. The model performed poorly when the specific habitats of species studied were not thoroughly sampled, or where the species were highly nomadic.

Published
2001

27. Bending the curve on terrestrial biodiversity loss: a multi model assessment

Author

Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J., Dürauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Vuuren, D., van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., and Young, L.

Published
2018

28. Essential biodiversity variables for mapping and monitoring species populations

Author

Jetz, W., McGeoch, M.A., Guralnick, R., Ferrier, S., Beck, J., Costello, M.J., Fernandez, M., Geller, G.N., Keil, P., Merow, C., Meyer, C., Muller-Karger, F.E., Pereira, H.M., Regan, E.C., Schmeller, Dirk Sven, Turak, E., Jetz, W., McGeoch, M.A., Guralnick, R., Ferrier, S., Beck, J., Costello, M.J., Fernandez, M., Geller, G.N., Keil, P., Merow, C., Meyer, C., Muller-Karger, F.E., Pereira, H.M., Regan, E.C., Schmeller, Dirk Sven, and Turak, E.

Abstract

Species distributions and abundances are undergoing rapid changes worldwide. This highlights the significance of reliable, integrated information for guiding and assessing actions and policies aimed at managing and sustaining the many functions and benefits of species. Here we synthesize the types of data and approaches that are required to achieve such an integration and conceptualize ‘essential biodiversity variables’ (EBVs) for a unified global capture of species populations in space and time. The inherent heterogeneity and sparseness of raw biodiversity data are overcome by the use of models and remotely sensed covariates to inform predictions that are contiguous in space and time and global in extent. We define the species population EBVs as a space–time–species–gram (cube) that simultaneously addresses the distribution or abundance of multiple species, with its resolution adjusted to represent available evidence and acceptable levels of uncertainty. This essential information enables the monitoring of single or aggregate spatial or taxonomic units at scales relevant to research and decision-making. When combined with ancillary environmental or species data, this fundamental species population information directly underpins a range of biodiversity and ecosystem function indicators. The unified concept we present links disparate data to downstream uses and informs a vision for species population monitoring in which data collection is closely integrated with models and infrastructure to support effective biodiversity assessment.

Published
2019

29. Supporting material for the article entitled “Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy”

Author

Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, A., DeClerk, F.A., Di Marco, M., Dürauer, M., Doelman, J.C., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Zeist, W.J., Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlik, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., van Duuren, D., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., Young, L., Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, A., DeClerk, F.A., Di Marco, M., Dürauer, M., Doelman, J.C., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Zeist, W.J., Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlik, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., van Duuren, D., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., and Young, L.

Abstract

The archive provides supporting material for the article entitled “Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy”, published in the Nature journal (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2705-y). It contains: i) the final version of the methodological report (updating the initial version [DOI:10.22022/ESM/04-2018.15241] for this article), ii) geospatial land-use projections generated by land-use models for the various scenarios described in the article, iii) aggregated land-use model projections for other variables used in the article, iv) the code, input data and output data of the various biodiversity models applied to the land use projections, v) the code and side data to produce numbers and figures presented in the article.”

Published
2019

36. Towards pathways bending the curve terrestrial biodiversity trends within the 21st century

Author

Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., Declerck, F., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J., Durauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., Van Meijl, H., Van Vuuren, D., Van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., and Young, L.

Subjects
land-use change, scenarios, biodiversity
Published
2018

39. A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Author

Kim, H., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R.E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Hartfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Martins, I.S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., Pereira, H.M., Kim, H., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R.E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Hartfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Martins, I.S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., and Pereira, H.M.

Abstract

To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e. nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenarios selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem service models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modelling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modelling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

Published
2018

40. A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Author

Kim, H.J., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R.E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlík, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclère, D., Martins, I.S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A.M., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., Pereira, H.M., Kim, H.J., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R.E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlík, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclère, D., Martins, I.S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A.M., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., and Pereira, H.M.

Abstract

To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6 – to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

Published
2018

41. Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science

Author

Bonebrake, TC, Brown, CJ, Bell, JD, Blanchard, JL, Chauvenet, A, Champion, C, Chen, IC, Clark, TD, Colwell, RK, Danielsen, F, Dell, AI, Donelson, JM, Evengård, B, Ferrier, S, Frusher, S, Garcia, RA, Griffis, RB, Hobday, AJ, Jarzyna, MA, Lee, E, Lenoir, J, Linnetved, H, Martin, VY, McCormack, PC, McDonald, J, McDonald-Madden, E, Mitchell, N, Mustonen, T, Pandolfi, JM, Pettorelli, N, Possingham, H, Pulsifer, P, Reynolds, M, Scheffers, BR, Sorte, CJB, Strugnell, JM, Tuanmu, MN, Twiname, S, Vergés, A, Villanueva, C, Wapstra, E, Wernberg, T, Pecl, GT, Bonebrake, TC, Brown, CJ, Bell, JD, Blanchard, JL, Chauvenet, A, Champion, C, Chen, IC, Clark, TD, Colwell, RK, Danielsen, F, Dell, AI, Donelson, JM, Evengård, B, Ferrier, S, Frusher, S, Garcia, RA, Griffis, RB, Hobday, AJ, Jarzyna, MA, Lee, E, Lenoir, J, Linnetved, H, Martin, VY, McCormack, PC, McDonald, J, McDonald-Madden, E, Mitchell, N, Mustonen, T, Pandolfi, JM, Pettorelli, N, Possingham, H, Pulsifer, P, Reynolds, M, Scheffers, BR, Sorte, CJB, Strugnell, JM, Tuanmu, MN, Twiname, S, Vergés, A, Villanueva, C, Wapstra, E, Wernberg, T, and Pecl, GT

Abstract

© 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions.

Published
2018

42. Visions for nature and nature’s contributions to people for the 21st century : Report from an IPBES visioning workshop held on 4-8 September 2017 in Auckland, New Zealand

Author

Lundquist, Carolyn J., Pereira, H.M., Alkemade, J.R.M., den Belder, E., Carvalho Ribeiro, Sonja, Davies, Kate, Greenaway, Alison, Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E., Kim, H., Lazarova, Tanya, Pereira, Laura, Peterson, G., Ravera, Federica, van den Brink, Thelma, Argumedo, Alejandro, Arida, Clarissa, Armenteras, Dolors, Ausseil, Anne-Gaelle, Baptiste, Brigitte, Belanger, Julie, Bingham, Kelly, Bowden-Kerby, Austin, Cao, Mingchang, Nettleton-Carino, Jocelyn, Van Damme, Paul Andre, Devivo, R., Dickson, Fiona, Dushimumuremyi, Jean Paul, Ferrier, S., Flores-Díaz, Adriana, Foley, Melissa, Garcia Marquez, Jaime, Giraldo-Perez, Paulina, Greenhalgh, Suzie, Hamilton, D.J., Hardison, Preston, Hicks, Geoff, Hughey, Ken, Kahui-McConnell, Richelle, Wangechi Karuri-Sebina, Geci, de Kock, M., Leadley, Paul, Lemaitre, Frederic, Maltseva, Elina, de Mattos Scaramuzza, Carlos A., Metwaly, Mona, Nelson, W., Ngo, Hien, Neumann, Christian, Norrie, Craig, Perry, Joanne, Quintana, Rodrigo, Rodriguez Osuna, Vanesa Eliana, Röhrl, Richard, Seager, J., Sharpe, Helen, Shortland, Tui, Shulbaeva, Polina, Rashid Sumaila, U., Takahashi, Yasuo, Titeux, Titeux, Tiwari, Sunandan, Trisos, Christopher, Ursache, Andrei, Wheatley, Amanda, Wilson, David, Wood, S., van Wyk, Ernita, Yue, Tian Xiang, and Zulfikar, Dina

Subjects
Environmental Systems Analysis, Public Administration and Policy, Milieusysteemanalyse, Life Science, WASS, Bestuurskunde
Abstract

Existing scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) have important limitations and gaps that constrain their usefulness for the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). Specifically, they fail to incorporate policy objectives related to nature conservation and social-ecological feedbacks, they do not address the linkages between biodiversity and ecosystem services, and they are typically relevant at only a particular spatial scale. In addition, nature and its benefits are treated as the consequence of human decisions, but are not at the centre of the analysis. To address these issues, the IPBES Scenarios and Models Expert Group initiated the development of a set of Multiscale Scenarios for Nature Futures based on positive visions for human relationships with nature.The first step of this process was a visioning workshop with stakeholders and experts on 4-8 September 2017 in Auckland, New Zealand. A total of 73 participants from inter-governmental organisations, national government organisations, non-governmental organisations, academia and the private sector, from 31 countries, and with a range of sectoral expertise on biodiversity topics, from urban development to agriculture to fisheries, worked together in a visioning exercise. This report documents the results from this visioning workshop to inform further stakeholder consultation and the development of the associated multiscale scenarios by modelers and experts. This creative visioning exercise was carried out in four steps based on a suite of participatory methods that were used to develop visions of alternative futures. First the participants identified important themes to develop the visions. Next, thematic groups identified the main trends for BES in each theme and a set of “Seeds” of emerging initiatives leading to positive futures for our relationship with nature. Implications of what would happen across a range of sectors were identified for each seed. Then a pathway analysis of how the current regime in each theme may be transformed into the future desirable regime was carriedout. Narratives were then built for the visions emerging from each group. Finally, commonalities of visions across the groups were identified, and the regional relevance of each vision for different parts of the world was assessed.

Published
2017

43. Reliability in CMOS IC processing

Author

Shreeve, R, Ferrier, S, Hall, D, and Wang, J

Subjects
Electronics And Electrical Engineering
Abstract

Critical CMOS IC processing reliability monitors are defined in this paper. These monitors are divided into three categories: process qualifications, ongoing production workcell monitors, and ongoing reliability monitors. The key measures in each of these categories are identified and prioritized based on their importance.

Published
1990

44. A005 – No Differences in Outcomes in Subjects with Low Back Pain who met the Clinical Prediction Rule for Lumbar Spine Manipulation when Non-thrust Manipulation was used as the Comparator

Author

Hopkins-Rosseel, D, Attwood, K, Karson, K, Lee, K, Cook, C, Learman, K, Klatt, M, O’Callaghan, L, Coelho, F, Krakovsky, A, Ellison, P, Lambert, C, Bradshaw, M, Miller, P, McKnight, A, Mihell, T, Moies, T, Ravenscroft, D, Benard, L, Hurtubise, K, Ramage, B, Brown, S, Camden, C, Wilson, B, Missiuna, C, Kirby, A, Wat, J, Cooke, M, Patel, Z, Zaidi, L, Shalchi, M, Baldner, ME, Howard, J, Jack, E, Pepe, G, Cheifetz, O, Pak, P, Lamb, B, Tirone, C, Jawed, H, Brunton, K, Mansfield, A, Cott, C, Inness, L, Metzker, M, Cameron, D, Slen, S, Roxborough, L, St John, T, Tatla, S, McCallum, V, Teixeira-Salmela, LF, Pinheiro, MB, Machado, GC, Carvalho, AC, Menezes, KK, Avelino, PR, Faria, CDCM, Scianni, AA, Souza, LAC, Martins, JC, Lara, EM, Aguiar, LT, Moura, JB, Hamilton, CB, Monica, MR, Chesworth, BM, Trivino, M, Kaizer, F, Bergeron, S, Charbonneau, J, Gadoury, M, Gendron, V, Levin, MF, Carlucci, A, Dinunzio, P, Laverdière, A, Lin, Z, Park, M, Perlman, C, Todor, R, Geddes, EL, Southam, J, Koopman, J, Sun, T, Miller, J, MacDermid, J, Brosseau, L, Hoens, A, Scott, A, Houde, K, Yardley, T, Devereaux, M, Quan-Velanoski, K, Yeung, E, Levesque, L, Arnold, C, Crockett, K, Kay, JL, Walton, WM, Kerslake, S, Gilmore, P, Barry, J, Blanchard, J, Howson, S, Scott, M, Solomon, M, Beaton, M, Zwerling, I, Connelly, DM, Debigaré, R, Harris, J, Parsons, TL, Lord, MJ, Morin, M, Pukal, C, Thibault-Gagnon, S, Teyhen, D, Laliberté, M, Hudon, A, Sonier, V, Badro, V, Hunt, M, Feldman, DE, Mori, B, Brooks, D, Herold, J, Beaton, D, Manns, PJ, Darrah, J, Hatzoglou, D, Karkouti, E, Cheng, L, Laprade, J, Giangregorio, L, Jain, R, Evans, C, Anderson, C, Cosgrove, M, Lees, D, Chan, G, Gibson, BE, Hall, M, Prasanna, S, Simmonds, M, Turner, K, Bell, M, Bays, L, Lau, C, Lai, C, Kendzerska, T, Davies, R, Greig, A, Dawes, D, Murphy, S, Parker, G, Loveridge, B, Dyer, JO, Montpetit-Tourangeau, K, Mamede, S, van, Gog T, Denis, M, Savard, I, Moffet, H, Bourdeau, G, Elkadhi, A, McGuire, M, Yu, J, Kelland, K, Hoe, E, Andreoli, A, Nixon, S, Montreuil, J, Besner, C, Richter, A, Bostick, GP, Parent, E, Barnes, M, Brososky, C, Jelley, W, Larocque, N, Borghese, M, Switzer-McIntyre, S, Norton, B, Puri, C, Prior, M, Littke, N, Damp, Lowery C, Sinclair, L, Sawant, A, Doherty, TJ, House, AA, Gati, J, Bartha, R, Overend, TJ, Matmari, L, Uyeno, J, Heck, CS, Nadeau, S, Gagnon, G, Tousignant, M, Moreside, J, Quirk, A, Hubley-Kozey, C, Ploughman, M, Murray, C, Murdoch, M, Harris, C, Hogan, S, Stefanelli, M, Shears, J, Squires, S, McCarthy, J, Lungu, E, Desmeules, F, Dionne, CE, Belzile, EL, Vendittoli, PA, Mérette, C, Boissy, P, Corriveau, H, Marquis, F, Cabana, F, Ranger, P, Belzile, E, Larochelle, P, Dimentberg, R, Ezzat, AM, Cibere, J, Koehoorn, M, Sayre, EC, Li, LC, Hermenegildo, J, Kim, SY, Hiemstra, LA, Kerslake, A, Heard, SM, Buchko, GML, Villeneuve, M, Lamontagne, A, Subramanian, SK, Chilingaryan, G, Sveistrup, H, Barclay-Goddard, R, Ripat, J, Gandhi, M, Karunaratne, N, Vaccariello, R, Zhao, Y, Hamel-Hébert, I, Malo, M-J, Spahija, J, Vermeltfoort, K, Staruszkiewicz, A, Anselm, K, Badnjevic, A, Burton, K, Balogh, R, Poth, C, Manns, P, Beaupre, L, Karam, SL, Tremblay, F, Leew, S, Goldstein, S, Pelland, L, Gilchrist, I, Gray, C, Guy, T, Yoon, D, Lui, KY, Culham, E, Berg, K, Hsueh, J, Rutherford, D, Hurley, S, Fisk, JD, Beaulieu, S, Knox, K, Marrie, RA, MacPherson, K, Leese, J, Rosedale, R, Rastogi, R, Willis, S, Filice, F, Chesworth B, B, May, S, Robbins, S, Robbins, SM, Ravi, R, McLaughlin, TL, Kennedy, DM, Stratford, PW, Denis, S, Dickson, P, Andrion, J, Gollish, JD, Darekar, A, Fung, J, Aravind, G, Gray, CK, Duclos, C, Kemlin, C, Dyer, J-O, Gagnon, D, Auchincloss, C, McLean, L, Goldfinger, C, Pukall, CF, Chamberlain, S, Singh, C, De, Vera M, Campbell, KL, Lai, D, Sabrina, Tung, Pringle, D, Eng, L, Brown, C, Shen, X, Halytskyy, O, Mahler, M, Niu, C, Villeneuve, J, Charow, R, Lam, C, Shani, RM, Tiessen, K, Howell, D, Alibhai, SMH, Xu, W, Jones, JM, Liu, G, Dufour, SP, Richardson, JA, Woollacott, M, Sachdeva, R, Gerow, C, Heynen, N, Jiang, J, Lebersback, M, Quest, B, Tasker, L, Chan, M, Vielleuse, JV, Vokaty, S, Wener, MA, Pearson, I, Gagnon, I, Vafadar, AK, Cote, J, Archambault, P, Raja, K, Balthillaya, MG, Destieux, C, Gaudreault, N, Vautravers, P, Paquet, N, Taillon-Hobson, A, MacKay-Lyons, M, Gubitz, G, Giacomantonio, N, Wightman, H, Marsters, D, Thompson, K, Blanchard, C, Eskes, G, Ferrier, S, Slipp, S, Freeman, M, Peacock, F, Boyd, J, Boyer-Rémillard, ME, Pilon-Piquette, M, McKinley, P, Graham, L, Pelletier, D, Gingras-Hill, C, Windholz, TY, Swanson, T, Vanderbyl, BL, Jagoe, RT, Backman, C, Franche, RL, Perron, M, Bouyer, H, Bastien, M, Hébert, LJ, Beaulieu, K, Beland, P, Belletete, A, Couture, A, Pinard, M, Leonard, G, Mayo, NE, Simmonds, MJ, Parent, EC, Dhillon, S, Fritz, J, Long, A, Boutros, N, Norcia, MC, Sammouda, J, Tran, CL, Schearer, J, McGivery, J, Van, Huizen J, Chesworth, B, DiCiacca, S, Roopchand–Martin, S, Nelson, G, Smith, S, Taiilon-Hobson, A, Aaron, S, Bilodeau, M, Coutinho, MA, Moraes, KS, Lage, SM, Vieira, DSR, Parreira, VF, Britto, RR, Monteiro, DP, Lages, ACR, Basilio, ML, Pires, COM, Carvalho, MLV, Procopio, RJ, Shatil, S, Schneider, K, Emery, C, Musselman, KE, Yang, JF, Bastian, AJ, Mullick, A, Blanchette, A, Moïn-Darbari, K, Esculier, JF, Roy, JS, Ma, S, Lui, J, Perreault, K, Rossignol, M, Morin, D, Muir, I, Millette, D, Lee, S, Cooney, D, Eberhart, D, Brolin, S, Doull, K, Apinis, C, Masetto, A, Couture, M, Desrosiers, J, Cossette, P, Toliopoulos, P, Woodhouse, LJ, Lacelle, M, Leroux, M, Girard, S, Fernandes, JC, Napier, C, McCormack, R, Hunt, MA, Brooks-Hill, A, Scott, L, Hollett, S, Dawson, K, Dimitri, D, Beallor, M, McEwen, S, Xie, B, Warner, S, Bilsen, JV, Sherif, AB, Hamilton, C, Bates, E, Beatty, J, Cameron, T, Gomez, M, Lung, M, Bamm, E, Rosenbaum, P, Stratford, P, Wilkins, S, Mahlberg, N, Tardif, G, Fancott, F, Lowe, M, Sharpe, S, Schwartz, F, MacNeil, J, Gabison, S, Verrier, MC, Nussbaum, EN, Popovic, MR, Mathur, S, West, R, Thelwell-Denton, V, Wightman, R, Loi, S, Yoshida, K, Barry, N, Guérin, B, Picard, S, Smart, A, Park, Dorsay J, Robert, M, Rodriguez, M, Stevenson, KM, Sulway, S, Rutka, J, Pothier, D, Dillon, W, Sulway, C, Bone, G, Zack, E, Chepeha, J, McLaughlin, L, Cleaver, SR, Fraser, M, Coombs, W, Funk, S, and Yardley, D

Subjects
Innovation in Education, Physiotherapy Research, Practice Model and Policy, Abstracts, CPA Congress 2013, Guest Editorial, Best Practice
Published
2013

45. Visions for nature and nature’s contributions to people for the 21st century. Report from an IPBES visioning workshop held on 4-8 September 2017 in Auckland, New Zealand

Author

Lundquist, C.J., Pereira, H.M., Alkemade, R., den Belder, E., Carvalho Ribeiro, S., Davies, K., Greenaway, A., Hauck, Jennifer, Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I., Kim, H., King, N., Lazarova, T., Pereira, L., Peterson, G., Ravera, F., van den Brink, T., Argumedo, A., Arida, C., Armenteras, D., Ausseil, A.G., Baptiste, B., Belanger, J., Bingham, K., Bowden-Kerby, A., Cao, M., Carino, J., Van Damme, P.A., Devivo, R., Dickson, F., Dushimumuremyi, J.P., Ferrier, S., Flores-Díaz, A., Foley, M., Garcia Marquez, J., Giraldo-Perez, P., Greenhaigh, S., Hamilton, D.J., Hardison, P., Hicks, G., Hughey, K., Kahui-McConnell, R., Karuri-Sebina, G., De Kock, M., Leadley, P., Lemaitre, F., Maltseva, E., de Mattos Scaramuzza, C.A., Metwally, M., Nelson, W., Ngo, H., Neumann, C., Norrie, C., Perry, J., Quintana, R., Rodriguez Osuna, V.E., Roehrl, C., Seager, J., Sharpe, H., Shortland, T., Shulbaeva, P., Sumaila, U.R., Takahashi, Y., Titeux, N., Tiwari, S., Trisos, C., Ursache, A., Wheatley, A., Wilson, D., Wood, S., van Wyk, E., Yue, T.X., Zulfikar, D., Lundquist, C.J., Pereira, H.M., Alkemade, R., den Belder, E., Carvalho Ribeiro, S., Davies, K., Greenaway, A., Hauck, Jennifer, Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I., Kim, H., King, N., Lazarova, T., Pereira, L., Peterson, G., Ravera, F., van den Brink, T., Argumedo, A., Arida, C., Armenteras, D., Ausseil, A.G., Baptiste, B., Belanger, J., Bingham, K., Bowden-Kerby, A., Cao, M., Carino, J., Van Damme, P.A., Devivo, R., Dickson, F., Dushimumuremyi, J.P., Ferrier, S., Flores-Díaz, A., Foley, M., Garcia Marquez, J., Giraldo-Perez, P., Greenhaigh, S., Hamilton, D.J., Hardison, P., Hicks, G., Hughey, K., Kahui-McConnell, R., Karuri-Sebina, G., De Kock, M., Leadley, P., Lemaitre, F., Maltseva, E., de Mattos Scaramuzza, C.A., Metwally, M., Nelson, W., Ngo, H., Neumann, C., Norrie, C., Perry, J., Quintana, R., Rodriguez Osuna, V.E., Roehrl, C., Seager, J., Sharpe, H., Shortland, T., Shulbaeva, P., Sumaila, U.R., Takahashi, Y., Titeux, N., Tiwari, S., Trisos, C., Ursache, A., Wheatley, A., Wilson, D., Wood, S., van Wyk, E., Yue, T.X., and Zulfikar, D.

Published
2017

46. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

Author

Rosa, I.M.D., Pereira, H.M., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Acosta, L.A., Akcakaya, R., den Belder, E., Fazel, A.M., Fujimori, S., Harfoot, M., Harhash, K.A., Harrison, P.A., Hauck, Jennifer, Hendriks, R.J.J., Hernández, G., Jetz, W., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I., Kim, H.J., King, N., Kok, M.T.J., Kolomytsev, G.O., Lazarova, T., Leadley, P., Lundquist, C.J., García Márquez, J., Meyer, C., Navarro, L.M., Nesshöver, Carsten, Ngo, H.T., Ninan, K.N., Palomo, M.G., Pereira, L.M., Peterson, G.D., Pichs, R., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Ravera, F., Rondinini, C., Sathyapalan, J., Schipper, A.M., Seppelt, Ralf, Settele, Josef, Sitas, N., van Vuuren, D., Rosa, I.M.D., Pereira, H.M., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Acosta, L.A., Akcakaya, R., den Belder, E., Fazel, A.M., Fujimori, S., Harfoot, M., Harhash, K.A., Harrison, P.A., Hauck, Jennifer, Hendriks, R.J.J., Hernández, G., Jetz, W., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I., Kim, H.J., King, N., Kok, M.T.J., Kolomytsev, G.O., Lazarova, T., Leadley, P., Lundquist, C.J., García Márquez, J., Meyer, C., Navarro, L.M., Nesshöver, Carsten, Ngo, H.T., Ninan, K.N., Palomo, M.G., Pereira, L.M., Peterson, G.D., Pichs, R., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Ravera, F., Rondinini, C., Sathyapalan, J., Schipper, A.M., Seppelt, Ralf, Settele, Josef, Sitas, N., and van Vuuren, D.

Abstract

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

Published
2017

47. Dimensions of biodiversity loss: Spatial mismatch in land-use impacts on species, functional and phylogenetic diversity of European bees

Author

De Palma, A., Kuhlmann, M., Bugter, R., Ferrier, S., Hoskins, A.J., Potts, S.G., Roberts, S.P.M., Schweiger, Oliver, Purvis, A., De Palma, A., Kuhlmann, M., Bugter, R., Ferrier, S., Hoskins, A.J., Potts, S.G., Roberts, S.P.M., Schweiger, Oliver, and Purvis, A.

Abstract

AimAgricultural intensification and urbanization are important drivers of biodiversity change in Europe. Different aspects of bee community diversity vary in their sensitivity to these pressures, as well as independently influencing ecosystem service provision (pollination). To obtain a more comprehensive understanding of human impacts on bee diversity across Europe, we assess multiple, complementary indices of diversity.LocationOne Thousand four hundred and forty six sites across Europe.MethodsWe collated data on bee occurrence and abundance from the published literature and supplemented them with the PREDICTS database. Using Rao's Quadratic Entropy, we assessed how species, functional and phylogenetic diversity of 1,446 bee communities respond to land-use characteristics including land-use class, cropland intensity, human population density and distance to roads. We combined these models with statistically downscaled estimates of land use in 2005 to estimate and map—at a scale of approximately 1 km2—the losses in diversity relative to semi-natural/natural baseline (the predicted diversity of an uninhabited grid square, consisting only of semi-natural/natural vegetation).ResultsWe show that—relative to the predicted local diversity in uninhabited semi-natural/natural habitat—half of all EU27 countries have lost over 10% of their average local species diversity and two-thirds of countries have lost over 5% of their average local functional and phylogenetic diversity. All diversity measures were generally lower in pasture and higher-intensity cropland than in semi-natural/natural vegetation, but facets of diversity showed less consistent responses to human population density. These differences have led to marked spatial mismatches in losses: losses in phylogenetic diversity were in some areas almost 20 percentage points (pp.) more severe than losses in species diversity, but in other areas losses were almost 40 pp. less severe.Main conclusionsThese

Published
2017

49. Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being

Author

Pecl, G.T., Araújo, Miguel B., Bell, J.D., Blanchard, Julia L., Bonebrake, T.C., Chen, I.C., Clark, T.D., Colwell, R.K., Danielsen, Finn, Evengård, Birgitta, Falconi, L., Ferrier, S., Frusher, S., García, R.A., Griffis, R.B., Hobday, A.J., Janion-Scheepers, C., Jarzyna, M.A., Jennings, S., Lenoir, J., Linnetved, H.I., Martin, V.Y., McCormack, P.C., McDonald, J., Mitchell, N.J., Mustonen, Tero, Pandolfi, J.M., Pettorelli, N., Popova, E., Robinson, S.A., Scheffers, B.R., Shaw, Justine, Sorte, C.J.B., Strugnell, J.M., Sunday, J.M., Tuanmu, M.N., Vergés, A., Villanueva, C., Wernberg, Thomas, Wapstra, E., Williams, S.E., Pecl, G.T., Araújo, Miguel B., Bell, J.D., Blanchard, Julia L., Bonebrake, T.C., Chen, I.C., Clark, T.D., Colwell, R.K., Danielsen, Finn, Evengård, Birgitta, Falconi, L., Ferrier, S., Frusher, S., García, R.A., Griffis, R.B., Hobday, A.J., Janion-Scheepers, C., Jarzyna, M.A., Jennings, S., Lenoir, J., Linnetved, H.I., Martin, V.Y., McCormack, P.C., McDonald, J., Mitchell, N.J., Mustonen, Tero, Pandolfi, J.M., Pettorelli, N., Popova, E., Robinson, S.A., Scheffers, B.R., Shaw, Justine, Sorte, C.J.B., Strugnell, J.M., Sunday, J.M., Tuanmu, M.N., Vergés, A., Villanueva, C., Wernberg, Thomas, Wapstra, E., and Williams, S.E.

Abstract

Distributions of Earth's species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by humanmediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals.

Published
2017

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