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We model further development of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK given the current data and assuming different scenarios of handling the epidemic. In this research, we further extend the stochastic model suggested in \cite{us} and incorporate in it all available to us knowledge about parameters characterising the behaviour of the virus and the illness induced by it. The models we use are flexible, comprehensive, fast to run and allow us to incorporate the following: -time-dependent strategies of handling the epidemic; -spatial heterogeneity of the population and heterogeneity of development of epidemic in different areas; -special characteristics of particular groups of people, especially people with specific medical pre-histories and elderly. Standard epidemiological models such as SIR and many of its modifications are not flexible enough and hence are not precise enough in the studies that requires the use of the features above. Decision-makers get serious benefits from using better and more flexible models as they can avoid of nuanced lock-downs, better plan the exit strategy based on local population data, different stages of the epidemic in different areas, making specific recommendations to specific groups of people; all this resulting in a lesser impact on economy, improved forecasts of regional demand upon NHS allowing for intelligent resource allocation.

Coronavirus COVID-19 spreads through the population mostly based on social contact. To gauge the potential for widespread contagion, to cope with associated uncertainty and to inform its mitigation, more accurate and robust modelling is centrally important for policy making. We provide a flexible modelling approach that increases the accuracy with which insights can be made. We use this to analyse different scenarios relevant to the COVID-19 situation in the UK. We present a stochastic model that captures the inherently probabilistic nature of contagion between population members. The computational nature of our model means that spatial constraints (e.g., communities and regions), the susceptibility of different age groups and other factors such as medical pre-histories can be incorporated with ease. We analyse different possible scenarios of the COVID-19 situation in the UK. Our model is robust to small changes in the parameters and is flexible in being able to deal with different scenarios. This approach goes beyond the convention of representing the spread of an epidemic through a fixed cycle of susceptibility, infection and recovery (SIR). It is important to emphasise that standard SIR-type models, unlike our model, are not flexible enough and are also not stochastic and hence should be used with extreme caution. Our model allows both heterogeneity and inherent uncertainty to be incorporated. Due to the scarcity of verified data, we draw insights by calibrating our model using parameters from other relevant sources, including agreement on average (mean field) with parameters in SIR-based models.

This paper establishes new bridges between number theory and modern harmonic analysis, namely between the class of complex functions, which contains zeta functions of arithmetic schemes and closed with respect to product and quotient, and the class of mean-periodic functions in several spaces of functions on the real line. In particular, the meromorphic continuation and functional equation of the zeta function of arithmetic scheme with its expected analytic shape is shown to correspond to mean-periodicity of a certain explicitly defined function associated to the zeta function. This correspondence can be viewed as an extension of the Hecke--Weil correspondence. The case of elliptic curves over number fields and their regular models is treated in more details, and many other examples are included as well., Comment: 45 pages

This is an introduction to noncommutative local reciprocity maps for totally ramified Galois extensions with arithmetically profinite group. These maps in general are not homomorphisms but Galois cycles; a description of their image and kernel is included., Comment: For introduction and notation, see math.NT/0012131 . Published by Geometry and Topology Monographs at http://www.maths.warwick.ac.uk/gt/GTMon3/m3-II-9.abs.html

Author's generalization of one-dimensional class field theory to theory of abelian totally ramified p-extensions of a complete discrete valuation field with arbitrary non-separably p-closed residue field and its applications are described., Comment: For introduction and notation, see math.NT/0012131 . Published by Geometry and Topology Monographs at http://www.maths.warwick.ac.uk/gt/GTMon3/m3-I-16.abs.html

This is a presentation of explicit methods to construct higher local class field theory by using topological K-groups, explicit symbols and a generalization of Neukirch-Hazewinkel's axiomatic approaches. The existence theorem is discussed as well., Comment: For introduction and notation, see math.NT/0012131 . Published by Geometry and Topology Monographs at http://www.maths.warwick.ac.uk/gt/GTMon3/m3-I-10.abs.html

This appendix discusses some basic definitions and properties of differential forms and Kato's cohomology groups in characteristic p and a sketch of the proof of Bloch-Kato-Gabber's theorem which describes the differential symbol from the Milnor K-group K_n(F)/p of a field F of positive characteristic p to the differential module \Omega_F^n., Comment: For introduction and notation, see math.NT/0012131 . Published by Geometry and Topology Monographs at http://www.maths.warwick.ac.uk/gt/GTMon3/m3-I-a.abs.html

This is a review of Parshin's higher local class field theory in characteristic p., Comment: For introduction and notation, see math.NT/0012131 . Published by Geometry and Topology Monographs at http://www.maths.warwick.ac.uk/gt/GTMon3/m3-I-7.abs.html

Certain topologies on Milnor K-groups of higher local fields K are studied. These are related to the topology on the multiplicative group and important for explicit higher local class field theory. The structure of the quotient of Milnor K-groups modulo the intersection of all neighbourhoods of zero is described., Comment: For introduction and notation, see math.NT/0012131 . Published by Geometry and Topology Monographs at http://www.maths.warwick.ac.uk/gt/GTMon3/m3-I-6.abs.html

The monograph "Invitation to higher local fields" is the result of the conference on higher local fields held in Muenster, August 29 to September 5, 1999. The aim is to provide an introduction to higher local fields (more generally complete discrete valuation fields with arbitrary residue field) and render the main ideas of this theory (Part I), as well as to discuss several applications and connections to other areas (Part II). The volume grew as an extended version of talks given at the conference. The two parts are separated by a paper of K. Kato, an IHES preprint from 1980 which has never been published. We hope that the volume will be a useful introduction and guide to the subject. The contributions to this volume were received over the period November 1999 to August 2000 and the electronic publication date is 10 December 2000. This is the introduction: math.NT/0012131. Other arXiv references are as follows: Part I: Sections 1: math.NT/0012132, 2: math.NT/0012133, A: math.NT/0012134, 4: math.NT/0012135, 5: math.NT/0012136, 6: math.NT/0012137, 7: math.NT/0012138, 8: math.NT/0012139, 9: math.NT/0012140, 10: math.NT/0012141, 11: math.NT/0012142, 12: math.NT/0012143, 13: math.NT/0012144, 14: math.NT/0012145, 15: math.NT/0012146, 16: math.NT/0012147, 17: math.NT/0012148, 18: math.NT/0012149 . Interlude: math.NT/0012150 . Part II: Sections 1: math.NT/0012151, 2: math.NT/0012152, 3: math.NT/0012153, 4: math.NT/0012154, 5: math.NT/0012155, 6: math.NT/0012156, 7: math.NT/0012157, 8: math.NT/0012158, 9: math.NT/0012159, 10: math.NT/0012160 ., Comment: Published by Geometry and Topology Monographs at http://www.maths.warwick.ac.uk/gt/gtmcontents3.html

The wild group is the group of wild automorphisms of a local field of characteristic p. In this paper we apply Fontaine-Wintenberger's theory of fields of norms to study the structure of the wild group. In particular we provide a new short proof of R. Camina's theorem which says that every pro-p-group with countably many open sugroups is isomorphic to a closed subgroup of the wild group. We study some closed subgroups T of the wild group whose commutator subgroup is unusually small. Realizing the group T as the Galois group of arithmetically profinite extensions of p-adic fields we answer affirmatively Coates--Greenberg's problem on deeply ramified extensions of local fields. Finally using the subgroup T we show that the wild group is not analytic over commutative complete local noetherian integral domains with finite residue field of characteristic p., Comment: 15 pages, AMSTeX