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We present a catalog of hard X-ray serendipitous sources detected in the first 80 months of observations by the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR). The NuSTAR serendipitous survey 80 month (NSS80) catalog has an unprecedented ∼62 Ms of effective exposure time over 894 unique fields (a factor of 3 increase over the 40 month catalog, NSS40), with an areal coverage of ∼36 deg ^2 , larger than all NuSTAR extragalactic surveys. NSS80 provides 1274 hard X-ray sources in the 3−24 keV band (822 new detections compared to the previous NSS40). Approximately 76% of the NuSTAR sources have lower-energy (

AT2022cmc was recently reported as the first on-axis jetted tidal disruption event (TDE) discovered in the last decade, and the fourth on-axis jetted TDE candidate known so far. In this work, we present NuSTAR hard X-ray (3–30 keV) observations of AT2022cmc, as well as soft X-ray (0.3–6 keV) observations obtained by NICER, Swift, and XMM-Newton. Our analysis reveals that the broadband X-ray spectra can be well described by a broken power law with f _ν ∝ ν ^−0.5 ( f _ν ∝ ν ^−1 ) below (above) the rest-frame break energy of E _bk ∼ 10 keV at the observer frame t _obs = 7.8 and 17.6 days since discovery. At t _obs = 36.2 days, the X-ray spectrum is consistent with either a single power law or a broken power law. By modeling the spectral energy distribution from radio to hard X-ray across the three NuSTAR observing epochs, we find that the submillimeter/radio emission originates from external shocks at large distances ≳10 ^17 cm from the black hole, the UV/optical light comes from a thermal envelope with radius ∼10 ^15 cm, and the X-ray emission is consistent with synchrotron radiation powered by energy dissipation at intermediate radii within the (likely magnetically dominated) jet. We constrain the bulk Lorentz factor of the jet to be of the order 10–100. Our interpretation differs from the model proposed by Pasham et al. where both the radio and X-rays come from the same emitting zone in a matter-dominated jet. Our model for the jet X-ray emission has broad implications on the nature of relativistic jets in other sources such as gamma-ray bursts.

We present multiwavelength high-spatial resolution (∼0.″1, 70 pc) observations of UGC 4211 at z = 0.03474, a late-stage major galaxy merger at the closest nuclear separation yet found in near-IR imaging (0.″32, ∼230 pc projected separation). Using Hubble Space Telescope/Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph, Very Large Telescope/MUSE+AO, Keck/OSIRIS+AO spectroscopy, and the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) observations, we show that the spatial distribution, optical and near-infrared emission lines, and millimeter continuum emission are all consistent with both nuclei being powered by accreting supermassive black holes (SMBHs). Our data, combined with common black hole mass prescriptions, suggest that both SMBHs have similar masses, $\mathrm{log}\left({M}_{\mathrm{BH}}/{M}_{\odot }\right)$ ∼ 8.1 (south) and $\mathrm{log}\left({M}_{\mathrm{BH}}/{M}_{\odot }\right)$ ∼ 8.3 (north), respectively. The projected separation of 230 pc (∼6× the black hole sphere of influence) represents the closest-separation dual active galactic nuclei (AGN) studied to date with multiwavelength resolved spectroscopy and shows the potential of nuclear (

We present a catalog of the millimeter-wave (mm-wave) continuum properties of 98 nearby ( z < 0.05) active galactic nuclei (AGNs) selected from the 70 month Swift/BAT hard-X-ray catalog that have precisely determined X-ray spectral properties and subarcsecond-resolution Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array Band 6 (211–275 GHz) observations as of 2021 April. Due to the hard-X-ray (>10 keV) selection, the sample is nearly unbiased for obscured systems at least up to Compton-thick-level obscuration, and provides the largest number of AGNs with high-physical-resolution mm-wave data (≲100–200 pc). Our catalog reports emission peak coordinates, spectral indices, and peak fluxes and luminosities at 1.3 mm (230 GHz). Additionally, high-resolution mm-wave images are provided. Using the images and creating radial surface brightness profiles of mm-wave emission, we identify emission extending from the central sources and isolated blob-like emission. Flags indicating the presence of these emission features are tabulated. Among 90 AGNs with significant detections of nuclear emission, 37 AGNs (≈41%) appear to have both or one of extended or blob-like components. We, in particular, investigate AGNs that show well-resolved mm-wave components and find that these seem to have a variety of origins (i.e., a jet, radio lobes, a secondary AGN, stellar clusters, a narrow-line region, galaxy disk, active star formation regions, or AGN-driven outflows), and some components have currently unclear origins.

We present two independent measurements of stellar velocity dispersions ( σ _⋆ ) from the Ca ii H+K λ 3969, 3934 and Mg i b λ 5183, 5172, 5167 region (3880–5550 Å) and the calcium triplet region (8350–8750 Å) for 173 hard X-ray-selected Type 1 active galactic nuclei (AGNs; z ≤ 0.08) from the 105 month Swift-BAT catalog. We construct one of the largest samples of local Type 1 AGNs that have both single-epoch virial black hole mass ( M _BH ) estimates and σ _⋆ measurements obtained from high spectral resolution data, allowing us to test the usage of such methods for supermassive black hole studies. We find that the two independent σ _⋆ measurements are highly consistent with each other, with an average offset of only 0.002 ± 0.001 dex. Comparing M _BH estimates based on broad emission lines and stellar velocity dispersion measurements, we find that the former is systematically lower by ≈0.12 dex. Consequently, Eddington ratios estimated through broad-line M _BH determinations are similarly biased (but in the opposite way). We argue that the discrepancy is driven by extinction in the broad-line region. We also find an anticorrelation between the offset from the M _BH – σ _⋆ relation and the Eddington ratio. Our sample of Type 1 AGNs shows a shallower M _BH – σ _⋆ relation (with a power-law exponent of ≈3.5) compared with that of inactive galaxies (with a power-law exponent of ≈4.5), confirming earlier results obtained from smaller samples.

We present optical, radio, and X-ray observations of a rapidly evolving transient SN2019wxt (PS19hgw), discovered during the search for an electromagnetic counterpart to the gravitational-wave (GW) trigger S191213g. Although S191213g was not confirmed as a significant GW event in the off-line analysis of LIGO-Virgo data, SN2019wxt remained an interesting transient due to its peculiar nature. The optical/near-infrared (NIR) light curve of SN2019wxt displayed a double-peaked structure evolving rapidly in a manner analogous to currently known ultrastripped supernovae (USSNe) candidates. This double-peaked structure suggests the presence of an extended envelope around the progenitor, best modeled with two components: (i) early-time shock-cooling emission and (ii) late-time radioactive ^56 Ni decay. We constrain the ejecta mass of SN2019wxt at M _ej ≈ 0.20 M _⊙ , which indicates a significantly stripped progenitor that was possibly in a binary system. We also followed up SN2019wxt with long-term Chandra and Jansky Very Large Array observations spanning ∼260 days. We detected no definitive counterparts at the location of SN2019wxt in these long-term X-ray and radio observational campaigns. We establish the X-ray upper limit at 9.93 × 10 ^−17 erg cm ^−2 s ^−1 and detect an excess radio emission from the region of SN2019wxt. However, there is little evidence for SN1993J- or GW170817-like variability of the radio flux over the course of our observations. A substantial host-galaxy contribution to the measured radio flux is likely. The discovery and early-time peak capture of SN2019wxt in optical/NIR observations during EMGW follow-up observations highlight the need for dedicated early, multiband photometric observations to identify USSNe.

By characterizing the contribution of stray light to large data sets from the CXB Measurement X-ray observatory collected over 2012–2017, we report a measurement of the cosmic X-ray background (CXB) in the 3–20 keV energy range. These data represent ∼20% sky coverage while avoiding Galactic ridge X-ray emission and are less weighted by deep survey fields than previous measurements with CXB Measurement. Images in narrow energy bands are stacked in detector space and spatially fit with a model representing the stray light and uniform pattern expected from the CXB and the instrumental background, respectively. We establish baseline flux values from Earth-occulted data and validate the fitting method on stray-light observations of the Crab, which further serve to calibrate the resulting spectra. We present independent spectra of the CXB with the focal plane module FPMA and FPMB detector arrays, which are in excellent agreement with the canonical characterization by HEAO 1 and are 10% lower than most subsequent measurements: ${F}_{3-20\,\mathrm{keV}}^{\mathrm{FPMA}}=2.63\times {10}^{-11}\,\mathrm{erg}\,{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}\,{\mathrm{cm}}^{-2}\,{\deg }^{-2}$ and ${F}_{3\mbox{--}20\,\mathrm{keV}}^{\mathrm{FPMB}}\,=2.58\times {10}^{-11}\,\mathrm{erg}\,{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}\,{\mathrm{cm}}^{-2}\,{\deg }^{-2}$ . We discuss these results in light of previous measurements of the CXB and consider the impact of systematic uncertainties on our spectra.

Abstract Background In principle, risk-stratification as a routine part of the NHS Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP) should produce a better balance of benefits and harms. The main benefit is the offer of NICE-approved more frequent screening and/ or chemoprevention for women who are at increased risk, but are unaware of this. We have developed BC-Predict, to be offered to women when invited to NHSBSP which collects information on risk factors (self-reported information on family history and hormone-related factors via questionnaire; mammographic density; and in a sub-sample, Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms). BC-Predict produces risk feedback letters, inviting women at high risk (≥8% 10-year) or moderate risk (≥5 to

It is now possible to accurately assess breast cancer risk at routine NHS Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP) appointments, provide risk feedback and offer risk management strategies to women at higher risk. These strategies include National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) approved additional breast screening and risk-reducing medication. However, the NHSBSP invites nearly all women three-yearly, regardless of risk. In March 2022, a one-day agenda setting meeting took place in Manchester to discuss the feasibility and desirability of implementation of risk-stratified screening in the NHSBSP. Fifty-eight individuals participated (38 face-to-face, 20 virtual) with relevant expertise from academic, clinical and/or policy-making perspectives. Key findings were presented from the PROCAS2 NIHR programme grant regarding feasibility of risk-stratified screening in the NHSBSP. Participants discussed key uncertainties in seven groups, followed by a plenary session. Discussions were audio-recorded and thematically analysed to produce descriptive themes. Five themes were developed: (i) risk and health economic modelling; (ii) health inequalities and communication with women; (iii); extending screening intervals for low-risk women; (iv) integration with existing NHSBSP; and (v) potential new service models. Most attendees expected some form of risk-stratified breast screening to be implemented in England and collectively identified key issues to be resolved to facilitate this.

We present the active galactic nucleus (AGN) catalog and optical spectroscopy for the second data release of the Swift BAT AGN Spectroscopic Survey (BASS DR2). With this DR2 release we provide 1449 optical spectra, of which 1182 are released for the first time, for the 858 hard-X-ray-selected AGNs in the Swift BAT 70-month sample. The majority of the spectra (801/1449, 55%) are newly obtained from Very Large Telescope (VLT)/X-shooter or Palomar/Doublespec. Many of the spectra have both higher resolution ( R > 2500, N ∼ 450) and/or very wide wavelength coverage (3200–10000 Å, N ∼ 600) that are important for a variety of AGN and host galaxy studies. We include newly revised AGN counterparts for the full sample and review important issues for population studies, with 47 AGN redshifts determined for the first time and 790 black hole mass and accretion rate estimates. This release is spectroscopically complete for all AGNs (100%, 858/858), with 99.8% having redshift measurements (857/858) and 96% completion in black hole mass estimates of unbeamed AGNs (722/752). This AGN sample represents a unique census of the brightest hard-X-ray-selected AGNs in the sky, spanning many orders of magnitude in Eddington ratio ( L / L _Edd = 10 ^−5 –100), black hole mass ( M _BH = 10 ^5 –10 ^10 M _⊙ ), and AGN bolometric luminosity ( L _bol = 10 ^40 –10 ^47 erg s ^−1 ).

We present the BAT AGN Spectroscopic Survey (BASS) Near-infrared Data Release 2 (DR2), a study of 168 nearby ( $\bar{z}=0.04$ , z < 0.6) active galactic nuclei (AGN) from the all-sky Swift Burst Array Telescope X-ray survey observed with the Very Large Telescope (VLT)/X-shooter in the near-infrared (NIR; 0.8–2.4 μ m). We find that 49/109 (45%) Seyfert 2 and 35/58 (60%) Seyfert 1 galaxies observed with VLT/X-shooter show at least one NIR high-ionization coronal line (CL; ionization potential χ > 100 eV). Comparing the emission of the [Si vi ] λ 1.9640 CL with the X-ray emission for the DR2 AGN, we find a significantly tighter correlation, with a lower scatter (0.37 dex) than that for the optical [O iii ] λ 5007 line (0.71 dex). We do not find any correlation between CL emission and the X-ray photon index Γ. We find a clear trend of line blueshifts with increasing ionization potential in several CLs, such as [Si vi ] λ 1.9640, [Si x ] λ 1.4300, [S viii ] λ 0.9915, and [S ix ] λ 1.2520, indicating the radial structure of the CL region. Finally, we find a strong underestimation bias in black hole mass measurements of Sy 1.9 using broad H α due to the presence of significant dust obscuration. In contrast, the broad Pa α and Pa β emission lines are in agreement with the M – σ relation. Based on the combined DR1 and DR2 X-shooter sample, the NIR BASS sample now comprises 266 AGN with rest-frame NIR spectroscopic observations, the largest set assembled to date.

Virial black hole (BH) mass ( M _BH ) determination directly involves knowing the broad-line region (BLR) clouds’ velocity distribution, their distance from the central supermassive BH ( R _BLR ), and the virial factor ( f ). Understanding whether biases arise in M _BH estimation with increasing obscuration is possible only by studying a large ( N > 100) statistical sample of obscuration-unbiased (hard) X-ray-selected active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in the rest-frame near-infrared (0.8–2.5 μ m) since it penetrates deeper into the BLR than the optical. We present a detailed analysis of 65 local Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) selected Seyfert galaxies observed with Magellan/FIRE. Adding these to the near-infrared BAT AGN spectroscopic survey database, we study a total of 314 unique near-infrared spectra. While the FWHMs of H α and near-infrared broad lines (He i , Pa β , Pa α ) remain unbiased to either BLR extinction or X-ray obscuration, the H α broad-line luminosity is suppressed when N _H ≳ 10 ^21 cm ^−2 , systematically underestimating M _BH by 0.23–0.46 dex. Near-infrared line luminosities should be preferred to H α until N _H < 10 ^22 cm ^−2 , while at higher obscuration a less-biased R _BLR proxy should be adopted. We estimate f for Seyfert 1 and 2 using two obscuration-unbiased M _BH measurements, i.e., the stellar velocity dispersion and a BH mass prescription based on near-infrared and X-ray, and find that the virial factors do not depend on the redshift or obscuration, but some broad lines show a mild anticorrelation with M _BH . Our results show the critical impact obscuration can have on BLR characterization and the importance of the near-infrared and X-rays for a less-biased view of the BLR.

We present new central stellar velocity dispersions for 484 Sy 1.9 and Sy 2 from the second data release of the Swift/BAT AGN Spectroscopic Survey (BASS DR2). This constitutes the largest study of velocity dispersion measurements in X-ray-selected obscured active galactic nuclei (AGN) with 956 independent measurements of the Ca ii H and K λ 3969, 3934 and Mg I λ 5175 region (3880–5550 Å) and the calcium triplet region (8350–8730 Å) from 642 spectra mainly from VLT/X-Shooter or Palomar/DoubleSpec. Our sample spans velocity dispersions of 40–360 km s ^1 , corresponding to 4–5 orders of magnitude in black hole mass ( M _BH = 10 ^5.5−9.6 M _⊙ ), bolometric luminosity ( L _bol ∼ 10 ^42–46 erg s ^−1 ), and Eddington ratio ( L / L _Edd ∼ 10 ^−5 to 2). For 281 AGN, our data and analysis provide the first published central velocity dispersions, including six AGN with low-mass black holes ( M _BH = 10 ^5.5−6.5 M _⊙ ), discovered thanks to high spectral resolution observations ( σ _inst ∼ 25 km s ^−1 ). The survey represents a significant advance with a nearly complete census of velocity dispersions of hard X-ray–selected obscured AGN with measurements for 99% of nearby AGN ( z < 0.1) outside the Galactic plane (∣ b ∣ > 10°). The BASS AGN have much higher velocity dispersions than the more numerous optically selected narrow-line AGN (i.e., ∼150 versus ∼100 km s ^−1 ) but are not biased toward the highest velocity dispersions of massive ellipticals (i.e., >250 km s ^−1 ). Despite sufficient spectral resolution to resolve the velocity dispersions associated with the bulges of small black holes (∼10 ^4–5 M _⊙ ), we do not find a significant population of super-Eddington AGN. Using estimates of the black hole sphere of influence from velocity dispersion, direct stellar and gas black hole mass measurements could be obtained with existing facilities for more than ∼100 BASS AGN.

We present the second catalog and data release of optical spectral line measurements and active galactic nucleus (AGN) demographics of the BAT AGN Spectroscopic Survey, which focuses on the Swift-BAT hard X-ray detected AGNs. We use spectra from dedicated campaigns and publicly available archives to investigate spectral properties of most of the AGNs listed in the 70 month Swift-BAT all-sky catalog; specifically, 743 of the 746 unbeamed and unlensed AGNs (99.6%). We find a good correspondence between the optical emission line widths and the hydrogen column density distributions using the X-ray spectra, with a clear dichotomy of AGN types for N _H = 10 ^22 cm ^−2 . Based on optical emission-line diagnostics, we show that 48%–75% of BAT AGNs are classified as Seyfert, depending on the choice of emission lines used in the diagnostics. The fraction of objects with upper limits on line emission varies from 6% to 20%. Roughly 4% of the BAT AGNs have lines too weak to be placed on the most commonly used diagnostic diagram, [O iii ] λ 5007/H β versus [N ii ] λ 6584/H α , despite the high signal-to-noise ratio of their spectra. This value increases to 35% in the [O iii ] λ 5007/[O ii ] λ 3727 diagram, owing to difficulties in line detection. Compared to optically selected narrow-line AGNs in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, the BAT narrow-line AGNs have a higher rate of reddening/extinction, with H α /H β > 5 (∼36%), indicating that hard X-ray selection more effectively detects obscured AGNs from the underlying AGN population. Finally, we present a subpopulation of AGNs that feature complex broad lines (34%, 250/743) or double-peaked narrow emission lines (2%, 17/743).

In this study, we use the Swift/BAT AGN sample, which has received extensive multiwavelength follow-up analysis as a result of the BAT AGN Spectroscopic Survey, to develop a diagnostic for nuclear obscuration by examining the relationship between the line-of-sight column densities ( N _H ), the 2–10 keV to 12 μ m luminosity ratio, and WISE mid-infrared colors. We demonstrate that heavily obscured AGNs tend to exhibit both preferentially “redder” mid-infrared colors and lower values of L _X,Obs. / L _12 _μ _m than less obscured AGNs, and we derive expressions relating N _H to the L _X,Obs. / L _12 _μ _m and L _22 _μ _m / L _4.6 _μ _m luminosity ratios, as well as develop diagnostic criteria using these ratios. Our diagnostic regions yield samples that are ≳80% complete and ≳60% pure for AGNs with log( N _H /cm ^−2 ) ≥ 24, as well as ≳85% pure for AGNs with $\mathrm{log}({N}_{{\rm{H}}}/{\mathrm{cm}}^{-2})\gtrsim 23.5$ . We find that these diagnostics cannot be used to differentiate between optically star-forming galaxies and active galaxies. Further, mid-IR contributions from host galaxies that dominate the observed 12 μ m emission can lead to larger apparent X-ray deficits and redder mid-IR colors than the AGNs would intrinsically exhibit, though this effect helps to better separate less and more obscured AGNs. Finally, we test our diagnostics on two catalogs of AGNs and infrared galaxies, including the XMM-Newton XXL-N field, and we identify several known Compton-thick AGNs, as well as a handful of candidate heavily obscured AGNs based upon our proposed obscuration diagnostics.

The BAT AGN Spectroscopic Survey (BASS) is designed to provide a highly complete census of the key physical parameters of the supermassive black holes (SMBHs) that power local active galactic nuclei (AGNs) ( z ≲ 0.3), including their bolometric luminosity ( L _bol ), black hole (BH) mass ( M _BH ), accretion rates ( L _bol / L _Edd ), line-of-sight gas obscuration ( N _H ), and the distinctive properties of their host galaxies (e.g., star formation rates, masses, and gas fractions). We present an overview of the second data release of BASS (DR2), an unprecedented spectroscopic AGN survey in spectral range, resolution, and sensitivity, including 1449 optical (∼3200 Å–1 μ m) and 233 near-IR (1–2.5 μ m) spectra for the brightest 858 ultrahard X-ray (14–195 keV) selected AGNs across the entire sky and essentially all levels of obscuration. This release provides a highly complete set of key measurements (emission-line measurements and central velocity dispersions), with 99.9% measured redshifts and 98% BH masses estimated (for unbeamed AGNs outside the Galactic plane). The BASS DR2 AGN sample represents a unique census of nearby powerful AGNs, spanning over 5 orders of magnitude in AGN bolometric luminosity ( L _bol ∼ 10 ^40 –10 ^47 erg s ^−1 ), BH mass ( M _BH ∼ 10 ^5 –10 ^10 M _⊙ ), Eddington ratio ( L _bol / L _Edd ≳ 10 ^−5 ), and obscuration ( N _H ∼ 10 ^20 –10 ^25 cm ^−2 ). The public BASS DR2 sample and measurements can thus be used to answer fundamental questions about SMBH growth and its links to host galaxy evolution and feedback in the local universe, as well as open questions concerning SMBH physics. Here we provide a brief overview of the survey strategy, the key BASS DR2 measurements, data sets and catalogs, and scientific highlights from a series of DR2-based works pursued by the BASS team.

Abstract Background The differences between breast cancer risk factors in white British/Irish and Asian women attending screening in the UK are not well documented. Methods Between 2009-15 ethnicity and traditional breast cancer risk factors were self-identified by a screening cohort from Greater Manchester, with follow up to 2016. Risk factors and incidence rates were compared using age-standardised statistics (European standard population). Results Eight hundred and seventy-nine Asian women and 51,779 unaffected white British/Irish women aged 46-73 years were recruited. Asian women were at lower predicted breast cancer risk from hormonal and reproductive risk factors than white British/Irish women (mean 10 year risk 2.6% vs 3.1%, difference 0.4%, 95%CI 0.3-0.5%). White British/Irish women were more likely to have had a younger age at menarche, be overweight or obese, taller, used hormone replacement therapy and not to have had children.. However, despite being less overweight Asian women had gained more weight from age 20 years and were less likely to undertake moderate physical activity. Asian women also had a slightly higher mammographic density. Asian age-standardised incidence was 3.2 (95%CI 1.6-5.2, 18 cancers) per thousand women/year vs 4.5 (95%CI 4.2-4.8, 1076 cancers) for white British/Irish women. Conclusions Asian women attending screening in Greater Manchester are likely to have a lower risk of breast cancer than white British/Irish women, but they undertake less physical activity and have more adult weight gain.

Background: In the UK, women are invited for 3-yearly mammography screening, through the NHS Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP), from the ages of 47–50 years to the ages of 69–73 years. Women with family histories of breast cancer can, from the age of 40 years, obtain enhanced surveillance and, in exceptionally high-risk cases, magnetic resonance imaging. However, no NHSBSP risk assessment is undertaken. Risk prediction models are able to categorise women by risk using known risk factors, although accurate individual risk prediction remains elusive. The identification of mammographic breast density (MD) and common genetic risk variants [single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)] has presaged the improved precision of risk models. Objectives: To (1) identify the best performing model to assess breast cancer risk in family history clinic (FHC) and population settings; (2) use information from MD/SNPs to improve risk prediction; (3) assess the acceptability and feasibility of offering risk assessment in the NHSBSP; and (4) identify the incremental costs and benefits of risk stratified screening in a preliminary cost-effectiveness analysis. Design: Two cohort studies assessing breast cancer incidence. Setting: High-risk FHC and the NHSBSP Greater Manchester, UK. Participants: A total of 10,000 women aged 20–79 years [Family History Risk Study (FH-Risk); UK Clinical Research Network identification number (UKCRN-ID) 8611] and 53,000 women from the NHSBSP [aged 46–73 years; Predicting the Risk of Cancer At Screening (PROCAS) study; UKCRN-ID 8080]. Interventions: Questionnaires collected standard risk information, and mammograms were assessed for breast density by a number of techniques. All FH-Risk and 10,000 PROCAS participants participated in deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) studies. The risk prediction models Manual method, Tyrer–Cuzick (TC), BOADICEA (Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm) and Gail were used to assess risk, with modelling based on MD and SNPs. A preliminary model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of risk stratified screening was conducted. Main outcome measures: Breast cancer incidence. Data sources: The NHSBSP; cancer registration. Results: A total of 446 women developed incident breast cancers in FH-Risk in 97,958 years of follow-up. All risk models accurately stratified women into risk categories. TC had better risk precision than Gail, and BOADICEA accurately predicted risk in the 6268 single probands. The Manual model was also accurate in the whole cohort. In PROCAS, TC had better risk precision than Gail [area under the curve (AUC) 0.58 vs. 0.54], identifying 547 prospective breast cancers. The addition of SNPs in the FH-Risk case–control study improved risk precision but was not useful in BRCA1 (breast cancer 1 gene) families. Risk modelling of SNPs in PROCAS showed an incremental improvement from using SNP18 used in PROCAS to SNP67. MD measured by visual assessment score provided better risk stratification than automatic measures, despite wide intra- and inter-reader variability. Using a MD-adjusted TC model in PROCAS improved risk stratification (AUC = 0.6) and identified significantly higher rates (4.7 per 10,000 vs. 1.3 per 10,000; p