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Targeted killings are a prominent strategy for combatting terrorism and are regularly claimed to deter political violence. Employed against terrorist leaders like Osama bin Laden and others who are argued to be prominent terrorist threats, a growing body of evidence suggests that targeted killings do not achieve their desired general deterrent impacts. Yet, this strategy still enjoys great political support and targeted killings continue to be touted as examples of previous counterterrorism success even before their impacts could be observed. Aiming to disentangle whether there is an empirical basis for these divergent claims regarding the impacts of targeted killings, this study examines the impact of the killing of bin Laden on global patterns of terrorist fatalities. Employing group-based and dual trajectory models, our findings indicate that regardless of whether an explicit cut-point is included in the analysis, the killing of bin Laden coincided with a global increase in terrorist fatalities in many but not all countries, some of which had previously declining trajectories of fatalities from terrorism. The potential impacts of future targeted killings and general deterrence are discussed along with the need to consider terrorism consequences beyond national borders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: While terrorism studies were once castigated as atheoretical and unempirical, criminology has been well suited to apply theories of crime to terrorism and to then test those theories with rigorous methods and robust data. The present study takes stock of how criminologists have theorized about terrorism and tested those theories over time in 13 of the discipline's leading journals. Methods: The study systematically examines theoretical framing, hypotheses, methodological approach, focus within criminology and criminal justice, and policy recommendations in terrorism-focused articles. Results: While terrorism has become more central within top journals, sparse attention has been paid to many criminological theories that could help us understand terrorism. Additional qualitative, theoretical, and mixed-methods research is needed. Further, few articles address the making of terrorism laws. We identify other systematic strengths and weaknesses across the literature and highlight domains for future research. Conclusions: Criminological research on terrorism has engaged theories within and beyond the discipline and employed a range of methodologies with diverse data sources to make contributions to both our broader field and to the larger body of scholarship on terrorism. Yet, many opportunities exist for criminologists to expand research on the making, breaking, and reaction to break laws regarding terrorism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why do some governments negotiate with insurgent organizations while others use force? This study examines the factors that influence these strategic government approaches to insurgencies using an original data set of state actions toward 140 insurgent groups between 1998 and 2012. We develop a simple model to explain government policy choice and test on these original data. After accounting for ideological differences and insurgent organization alliances, our findings suggest that the size of the insurgent group, the extent of previous lethal violence, and previous government decisions all influence government selection of conciliatory, repressive, mixed, and non-response strategies. We conclude by discussing the implications for how governments make counterterrorism/counterinsurgency strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: This study examines the association between a country's gun availability and firearm-related terrorism. Methods: Employing data from 140 countries, we assess the possible relationship between a country's rate of suicide by firearm and their count of terrorist attacks involving a firearm through a series of structural equation models. Results: Collectively, we find that there is a positive relationship between gun availability and firearm-related terrorism in 2016 and 2017. However, this result fails our robustness check and is sensitive to the inclusion of the U.S. Conclusion: With important caveats, we believe the U.S. to be unique in terms of both gun availability and terrorism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increased incidence of natural disasters may be among the major forces driving crime over the coming century. Indeed, previous research suggests that natural disasters provide the catalyst for acts of terrorism. However, because governments can choose how they respond to natural disasters, they might be able to select actions that would mitigate hostile reactions. In this article, we argue that government responses' natural disasters could alter the rational motivations for terrorism. If true, then by responding adequately to a disaster, a government can also reduce both political violence risks and public health harms. This study argues that it is the portrayal of government responses to a natural disaster that impacts subsequent terrorism rather than the natural disaster itself. Using data from the Philippines, Turkey, and the United Kingdom between 1987 and 2013, findings suggest that when disasters occur, governments have a unique opportunity to diminish the incentives for terrorism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The United States has adopted the targeted killing of high-ranking members of terrorist organizations to disrupt terrorist networks and exert general deterrence. The most salient of these killings occurred on 2 May 2011, when US Navy Seals killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan. Although general deterrence suggests this should result in decreased subsequent terrorism, high-profile targeted killings can also result in increased terrorist violence through backlash. This study uses dual trajectory analysis to examine the divergent influence that the killing of bin Laden had on global terrorism trends between November 2007 and May 2014. These analyses reveal that killing bin Laden did not have the desired deterrent impact on global terrorism or on terrorism committed by Al Qaeda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although political violence has proven to be difficult for governments to manage, predict or control, previous research on the impact of relevant federal government actions and US presidential rhetoric on terrorist attacks and hate crimes demonstrates that what the US government does matters in ways that are both expected and unexpected. In the US, government counterterrorism strategies changed rapidly in response to the September 11th, 2001 attacks on the US. The Bush administration formed a new executive department, centralised intelligence agencies, invested in tangible counterterrorism measures, implemented two invasions and occupations, and spoke publicly about terrorism on a near-daily basis. Yet much has changed since that research, as the US has since elected a president whose presidential campaign relied upon espousing antagonism towards Muslims, immigrants and other minority groups. Further, President Trump's administration has repeatedly demonstrated its commitment to isolate and suppress Muslims as a strategy to combat Islamist extremism in contrast to previous administrations' more cooperative approaches. This article considers what existing research tells us about whether and how the different actions of the Trump administration may fuel both Jihadi and far-right extremism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Belligerent nonstate actors including terrorist organizations often exploit illicit economies to fund their activities. In Colombia numerous belligerent groups are involved in illegal narcotics markets. For more than 20 years, the Colombian government has responded with targeted eradication of illicit crops, intending to undermine the groups' sources of revenue while simultaneously disrupting the illicit drug economy. Despite its duration, this policy's effect on guerrilla violence remains unclear. Examining the potential for violent backlash to these tactics, this research note assesses the impact of aerial coca crop eradication in Colombia from 2004–2005 on domestic Colombian guerrilla kidnappings, assassinations, and terrorism. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED) is now routinely adopted in many parts of the world. The role assumed by police in CPTED practices has however received limited academic attention. Through an analysis of available documentation and interviews with local government planners from 10 Sydney councils, this article provides a (partial) understanding of the historical and contemporary roles police have played in the development and implementation of CPTED guidelines in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. It is argued that the NSW Police Force was a pivotal driver of the introduction of planning guidelines to ensure crime risks are considered when new developments are being planned. However, the ongoing contribution of police appears to have waned, largely due to administrative, practical and operational realities. These findings have relevance for ongoing CPTED practice and the work of specialist policing roles more generally. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED) involves the manipulation of the built environment to reduce crime risks. The introduction of theCrime Prevention and the Assessment of Development Applications: Guidelines under Section 79c of the Environmental Planning and Assessment Act 1979(S79c Guidelines) stimulated work in this area in New South Wales (NSW) in April 2001. While the S79c Guidelines have never been formally evaluated, a growing body of research projects have been conducted that shed some light on contemporary CPTED practice in NSW. Taken together, the findings arising from this research suggest that there has been an increased acknowledgement of CPTED in planning circles, but there have been numerous implementation challenges. The Guidelines speak little to built environment professionals and provide limited guidance to consent authorities; crime risk assessments are generally undertaken late in the development process; and operational policing issues have in some instances undermined police–council liaison. After reviewing these and other key implementation challenges, a series of recommendations are made to improve CPTED practice in NSW. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]