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This report outlines the results of a study of the impact of climate change on the energy infrastructure of California and the San Francisco Bay region, including impacts on power plant generation; transmission line and substation capacity during heat spells; wildfires near transmission lines; sea level encroachment upon power plants, substations, and natural gas facilities; and peak electrical demand. The following end-of-century impacts were projected: Expected warming will decrease gas-fired generator efficiency. The maximum statewidecoincident loss is projected at 10.3 gigawatts (with current power plant infrastructureand population), an increase of 6.2 percent over current temperature-induced losses. By the end of the century, electricity demand for almost all summer days is expected toexceed the current ninetieth percentile per-capita peak load. As much as 21 percent growth is expected in ninetieth percentile peak demand (percapita, exclusive of population growth). When generator losses are included in thedemand, the ninetieth percentile peaks may increase up to 25 percent. As the climate warms, California’s peak supply capacity will need to grow faster thanthe population. Substation capacity is projected to decrease an average of 2.7 percent. A 5º Celsius (9º Fahrenheit) air temperature increase (the average increase predicted forhot days in August) will diminish the capacity of a fully loaded transmission line by anaverage of 7.5 percent. The potential exposure of transmission lines to wildfire is expected to increase withtime. This study identified some lines whose probability of exposure to fire are expectedto increase by as much as 40 percent. Up to 25 coastal power plants and 86 substations are at risk of flooding (or partialflooding) due to sea level rise.

High cost of technology is seen as the primary barrier to full commercialization of cellulosic biofuels. There is broad expectation that once conversion technology breakthroughs occur, policy support is only needed to accelerate cost reductions through “learning by doing” effects. In this study, we show that droughts pose a significant economic risk to biofuel producers and consumers regardless of the rate at which technology costs fall. We model a future switchgrass derived cellulosic biorefinery industry in Kansas based on spatially resolute historic (1996–2005) weather data, representing a rainfall regime that could reflect drought events predicted to occur throughout the U.S. Midwest by climatologists (Karl et al. (2009) U.S. Global Change Research Program USA). We find that droughts reduced modeled biorefinery capacity factors, on average, by 47%, raising biofuel production costs by 35% between a modeled dry and wet year. Interestingly, we find that two logical strategies to plan for drought; (1) building large biorefineries to source feedstock from a larger area and, (2) Storing switchgrass in good production years for use in drought years; are not very effective in reducing drought risks. Our findings should be of particular concern to low carbon fuel policies like California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard and the U.S. Second Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS2) whose costs of compliance may be much higher than expected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]