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This paper conducts a comparative analysis of the meanings of the phrase flatten the curve before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using data from two corpora, the iWeb Corpus and the Coronavirus Corpus, it focuses on semantic frames (Fillmore, 1985) and frame metonymy (Dancygier & Sweetser, 2014). The investigation reveals that the construal of the phrase after the outbreak of COVID-19 requires the invocation of both bell curve and pandemic frames; that is, without the pandemic frame, the phrase would remain in the domain of statistics and refer to a change in a graph. The data are sorted into four semantic categories based on the context in which they appear (epidemiological/non-epidemiological) and on the effect they pursue regarding the flattening-the-curve scenario (rigorous/non-rigorous). The phrase's polysemy is explained by the part of the process for effect of the process metonymy. The flatter curve, as a salient part of a scenario, serves to refer to one of the scenario's effects. The analysis also observes a correlation between the real-world experience of the pandemic and the actual frequency of flatten the curve in that the ratio of each semantic category reflects the contemporaneous real-world significance of reducing the rate of increase of new infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent spread of COVID-19 across the U.S. led to concerted efforts by states to ``flatten the curve" through the adoption of stay-at-home mandates that encourage individuals to reduce travel and maintain social distance. Combining data on changes in travel activity with COVID-19 health outcomes and state policy adoption timing, we characterize nationwide changes in mobility patterns and isolate the portion attributable to statewide mandates. We find evidence of dramatic nationwide declines in mobility prior to adoption of any statewide mandates. Once states adopt a mandate, we estimate further mandate-induced declines between 2.1 and 7.0 percentage points across methods that account for states' differences in travel behavior prior to policy adoption. In addition, we investigate the effects of stay-at-home mandates on changes in COVID-19 health outcomes while controlling for pre-trends and observed pre-treatment mobility patterns. We estimate mandate-induced declines between 0.13 and 0.17 in deaths (5.6 to 6.0 in hospitalizations) per 100 thousand across methods. Across 43 adopting states, this represents 23,366-30,144 fewer deaths (and roughly one million averted hospitalizations) for the months of March and April - which indicates that death rates could have been 42-54% higher had states not adopted statewide policies. We further find evidence that changes in mobility patterns prior to adoption of statewide policies also played a role in reducing COVID-19 mortality and morbidity. Adding in averted deaths due to pre-mandate social distancing behavior, we estimate a total of 48-71,000 averted deaths from COVID-19 for the two-month period. Given that the actual COVID-19 death toll for March and April was 55,922, our estimates suggest that deaths would have been 1.86-2.27 times what they were absent any stay-at-home mandates during this period. These estimates represent a lower bound on the health impacts of stay-at-home policies, as they do not account for spillovers or undercounting of COVID-19 mortality. Our findings indicate that early behavior changes and later statewide policies reduced death rates and helped attenuate the negative consequences of COVID-19. Further, our findings of substantial reductions in mobility prior to state-level policies convey important policy implications for re-opening.Take Away Link https://are.berkeley.edu/sites/are.berkeley.edu/files/PolicyTakeAway_Web.pdf

In this work, the COVID-19 curve disclosed by the media is explored through the tools of scientific dissemination. The motivation for this exploration is the recognition of the public's difficulty in interpreting the graph of the new coronavirus pandemic. The target audience for the presentation of the curve is made up of those who know only one potentiation operation, a geometric progression and an exponential function, but who have no notions of differential equations. Before exploring the COVID-19 curve, the text begins by introducing the concept of a mathematical model. The differential equations involved in mathematical models will not be made explicit, but will be written in terms of hypotheses. The calculation of the solutions of non-comprehensive equations, but as consequences of the hypotheses, will be exposed through arguments. Then, the article shows a mathematical model to describe the development of COVID-19, the SIR, acronym for susceptible-infected-recovered. The SIR model requires a dynamic where the susceptible (S) can become infected (I) and the latter, recovered (R). The work shows how the SIR model is a base of the COVID-19 curve, where the number of infected people grow and develop. Although the SIR model does not directly predict deaths, the estimate of the latter amount is made based on the number of infected people per day. The article discusses how the SIR model is close to the observed data, despite all its limitations. The conclusion of the article is that the assumptions and general changes of the SIR model can be explained to an audience that does not master advanced mathematics, but the estimated death values and the duration of the pandemic scheduled for planning measures against the pandemic no qualitative explanations can be found. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), a novel corona virus, causing COVID-19 with Flu-like symptoms is the first alarming pandemic of the third millennium. SARS-CoV-2 belongs to beta coronavirus as Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). Pandemic COVID-19 owes devastating mortality and destructively exceptional consequences on Socio-Economics life around the world. Therefore, the current review is redirected to the scientific community to owe comprehensive visualization about SARS-CoV-2 to tackle the current pandemic. As systematically shown through the current review, it indexes unmet medical problem of COVID-19 in view of public health and vaccination discovery for the infectious SARS-CoV-2; it is currently under-investigational therapeutic protocols, and next possible vaccines. Furthermore, the review extensively reports the precautionary measures to achieve'' COVID-19/Flatten the curve''. It is concluded that vaccines formulation within exceptional no time in this pandemic is highly recommended, via following the same protocols of previous pandemics; MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, and excluding some initial steps of vaccination development process.

Infographics of modest complexity are commonly used to convey knowledge to non-experts. However, little is known regarding how the use of infographics may convince the public and lead to massive behavioral changes in response to an acute cause. In March 2020, scientists and journalists revamped a scholarly published graph into the "flatten the curve" (FTC) mantra that defined the United States' initial response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This study examined how Americans' awareness of the flatten the curve charts relates to their perceived effectiveness of social distancing measures, perceived controllability of the pandemic, and behavioral intentions toward social distancing measures. Implications on visual communication of science are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), a novel corona virus, causing COVID-19 with Flu-like symptoms is the first alarming pandemic of the third millennium. SARS-CoV-2 belongs to beta coronavirus as Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). Pandemic COVID-19 owes devastating mortality and destructively exceptional consequences on Socio-Economics life around the world. Therefore, the current review is redirected to the scientific community to owe comprehensive visualization about SARS-CoV-2 to tackle the current pandemic. As systematically shown through the current review, it indexes unmet medical problem of COVID-19 in view of public health and vaccination discovery for the infectious SARS-CoV-2; it is currently under-investigational therapeutic protocols, and next possible vaccines. Furthermore, the review extensively reports the precautionary measures to achieve" COVID-19/Flatten the curve". It is concluded that vaccines formulation within exceptional no time in this pandemic is highly recommended, via following the same protocols of previous pandemics; MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, and excluding some initial steps of vaccination development process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This literature-based article found that on 08 June 2020, New Zealand claimed victory over coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mainly because of effective non-pharmaceutical strategies and interventions that included a hard lockdown. The response was informed by the country’s Influenza Pandemic Plan (although without criticism), which was updated in 2017, and the swift responses from political leadership and other key stakeholders. Strategies instituted included the proclamation of urgent precautionary measures leading to border closures, issuing of a 3-month-long COVID-19 notice under the Epidemic Preparedness Act 2006, the proclamation of the COVID-19 Elimination Strategy and the Initial COVID-19 Māori Response Action Plan, which incorporated COVID-19 Alert Levels that facilitated stepwise easing of the hard lockdown. The non-pharmaceutical strategies seem to have worked again, even as the second wave of COVID-19 infections returned in August 2020 through an Auckland cluster. Hence, the New Zealand case remains one that the world can draw lessons from, although not perfect.

Turning verbal theories into formal models is an essential business of a mature science. Here I elaborate on taxonomies of models, provide ten lessons for translating a verbal theory into a formal model, and discuss the specific challenges involved in collaborations between modelers and non-modelers. It's a start. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the net benefits of social distancing to slow the spread of COVID-19 in USA. Social distancing saves lives but imposes large costs on society due to reduced economic activity. We use epidemiological and economic forecasting to perform a rapid benefit–cost analysis of controlling the COVID-19 outbreak. Assuming that social distancing measures can substantially reduce contacts among individuals, we find net benefits of about $5.2 trillion in our benchmark case. We examine the magnitude of the critical parameters that might imply negative net benefits, including the value of statistical life and the discount rate. A key unknown factor is the speed of economic recovery with and without social distancing measures in place. A series of robustness checks also highlight the key role of the value of mortality risk reductions and discounting in the analysis and point to a need for effective economic stimulus when the outbreak has passed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Keywords: COVID-19; Novel coronavirus; SARS-CoV-2; Mathematical modelling; Compartmental models; Forecasting; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Disease control; Flatten the curve; Lockdown EN COVID-19 Novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 Mathematical modelling Compartmental models Forecasting Non-pharmaceutical interventions Disease control Flatten the curve Lockdown 1 4 4 05/27/20 20200525 NES 200525 Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been responsible for over three million reported cases worldwide, including more than 200,000 deaths (as of 1 May 2020). We discuss the authors' results about strategies for intervening to maintain intensive care unit (ICU) bed demand below the number of ICU beds in the UK. [Extracted from the article]

This literature-based article found that on 08 June 2020, New Zealand claimed victory over coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mainly because of effective non-pharmaceutical strategies and interventions that included a hard lockdown. The response was informed by the country's Influenza Pandemic Plan (although without criticism), which was updated in 2017, and the swift responses from political leadership and other key stakeholders. Strategies instituted included the proclamation of urgent precautionary measures leading to border closures, issuing of a 3-month-long COVID-19 notice under the Epidemic Preparedness Act 2006, the proclamation of the COVID-19 Elimination Strategy and the Initial COVID-19 Māori Response Action Plan, which incorporated COVID-19 Alert Levels that facilitated stepwise easing of the hard lockdown. The non-pharmaceutical strategies seem to have worked again, even as the second wave of COVID-19 infections returned in August 2020 through an Auckland cluster. Hence, the New Zealand case remains one that the world can draw lessons from, although not perfect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic offers many medical, economic, societal, and cultural challenges. The response by individual states in the United States of America varies, but with the common initial impetus for all being to "flatten the curve," which was intended to delay infections and spread the burden and impact on hospitals and medical systems. Starting with that intention, the responses by states has included many major steps not taken in prior pandemics. Those steps have significantly adversely affected hospitals rather than support them, and the overall impact has been to "flatten the economy" rather than just to "flatten the curve." Many state governors have stated that their decisions are "science-led" and "data driven" but the reality is that there is not relevant experimental data. The progression of decisions during the early pandemic decisions is traced, and the basis of decisions based in science or herd mentality is discussed. Experiences are not experiments, and experiences are not founded in the scientific process. Medical and government leaders must be vigilant to recognize the limitations of available data in responding to unique circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected 20 million people worldwide with over 732,000 deaths and trillions of dollars of lost economic productivity. It has put many countries into lockdown to contain the virus and save lives. As COVID-19 cases in some countries start to plateau and societies work hard to 'flatten the curve', leaders are being asked to formulate plans for safe and staged 'exit strategies' to reopen society. Each country will decide on their own exit strategy but many plans are considering similar vital healthcare principles including the maintenance of social distancing to prevent ongoing community transmission, testing capacity, protection of the healthcare systems and the health of their care workers. This review aims to provide an overview of essential factors that plans for exit strategy should consider and their effect on the societies' social and healthcare life., Competing Interests: None., (© 2020 The Authors.)