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BackgroundCurrent clinical guidelines recommend a coronary artery calcium (CAC) score of 100 Agatston Units or demographic-specific 75th percentile as high-risk thresholds for guiding atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease preventive therapy. Meanwhile, low CAC can help derisk individuals who may safely defer statin therapy. However, limited data from the early 2000s, including just 208 older Black individuals, inform CAC percentiles for adults aged 75 to 85 years, and none have been established in adults aged ≥85 years. This study aims to characterize the distribution of CAC and establish demographic-specific CAC percentiles in the population aged ≥75 years.MethodsWe assessed 2886 participants aged ≥75 years without clinical coronary heart disease from the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) visit 7 (2018-2019; n=2217) and the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) visit 5 (2010-2011; n=669). Prevalence of any CAC >0 and sex- and race-specific CAC percentiles across age were estimated nonparametrically with locally weighted regression models and pooled residual ranking.ResultsThe median age was 80 (interquartile interval, 77-83) years, and 60% were female. The prevalence of zero CAC was lowest in White males (4%), followed by Black males (13%), White females (14%), and highest in Black females (18%). Regardless of sex and race, most participants had CAC>100 (62.5%). CAC scores increased with age, with CAC identified in ≈95% of participants aged ≥90 years across sex-race subgroups. The 75th percentile corresponded to higher CAC scores for Black older adults (n=741), especially females, than currently used thresholds.ConclusionsIn community-dwelling adults aged ≥75 years free of clinical coronary heart disease, the prevalence of zero CAC was 11%, and CAC >100 as a threshold for high ASCVD risk would categorize most of this older population as high risk. Demographic-specific CAC percentiles from this study are a valuable tool for interpreting CAC in the population aged ≥75 years.

BackgroundDespite improvements in population health, marked racial and ethnic disparities in longevity and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality persist. This study aimed to describe risks for all-cause and CVD mortality by race and ethnicity, before and after accounting for socioeconomic status (SES) and other factors, in the MESA study (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis).MethodsMESA recruited 6814 US adults, 45 to 84 years of age, free of clinical CVD at baseline, including Black, White, Hispanic, and Chinese individuals (2000-2002). Using Cox proportional hazards modeling with time-updated covariates, we evaluated the association of self-reported race and ethnicity with all-cause and adjudicated CVD mortality, with progressive adjustments for age and sex, SES (neighborhood SES, income, education, and health insurance), lifestyle and psychosocial risk factors, clinical risk factors, and immigration history.ResultsDuring a median of 15.8 years of follow-up, 22.8% of participants (n=1552) died, of which 5.3% (n=364) died of CVD. After adjusting for age and sex, Black participants had a 34% higher mortality hazard (hazard ratio [HR], 1.34 [95% CI, 1.19-1.51]), Chinese participants had a 21% lower mortality hazard (HR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.66-0.95]), and there was no mortality difference in Hispanic participants (HR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.86-1.14]) compared with White participants. After adjusting for SES, the mortality HR for Black participants compared with White participants was reduced (HR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.01-1.34]) but still statistically significant. With adjustment for SES, the mortality hazards for Chinese and Hispanic participants also decreased in comparison with White participants. After further adjustment for additional risk factors and immigration history, Hispanic participants (HR, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.63-0.94]) had a lower mortality risk than White participants, and hazard ratios for Black participants (HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 0.92-1.26]) and Chinese participants (HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.60-1.08]) were not significantly different from those of White participants. Similar trends were seen for CVD mortality, although the age- and sex-adjusted HR for CVD mortality for Black participants compared with White participants was greater than all-cause mortality (HR, 1.72 [95% CI, 1.34-2.21] compared with HR, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.19-1.51]).ConclusionsThese results highlight persistent racial and ethnic differences in overall and CVD mortality, largely attributable to social determinants of health, and support the need to identify and act on systemic factors that shape differences in health across racial and ethnic groups.

The Collaborative Cohort of Cohorts for COVID-19 Research (C4R) is a national prospective study of adults comprising 14 established US prospective cohort studies. Starting as early as 1971, investigators in the C4R cohort studies have collected data on clinical and subclinical diseases and their risk factors, including behavior, cognition, biomarkers, and social determinants of health. C4R links this pre-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) phenotyping to information on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and acute and postacute COVID-related illness. C4R is largely population-based, has an age range of 18-108 years, and reflects the racial, ethnic, socioeconomic, and geographic diversity of the United States. C4R ascertains SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 illness using standardized questionnaires, ascertainment of COVID-related hospitalizations and deaths, and a SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey conducted via dried blood spots. Master protocols leverage existing robust retention rates for telephone and in-person examinations and high-quality event surveillance. Extensive prepandemic data minimize referral, survival, and recall bias. Data are harmonized with research-quality phenotyping unmatched by clinical and survey-based studies; these data will be pooled and shared widely to expedite collaboration and scientific findings. This resource will allow evaluation of risk and resilience factors for COVID-19 severity and outcomes, including postacute sequelae, and assessment of the social and behavioral impact of the pandemic on long-term health trajectories.

BackgroundUse of targeted exome-arrays with common, rare variants and functionally enriched variation has led to discovery of new genes contributing to population variation in risk factors. Plasminogen activator-inhibitor 1 (PAI-1), tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), and the plasma product D-dimer are important components of the fibrinolytic system. There have been few large-scale genome-wide or exome-wide studies of PAI-1, tPA, and D-dimer.ObjectivesWe sought to discover new genetic loci contributing to variation in these traits using an exome-array approach.MethodsCohort-level analyses and fixed effects meta-analyses of PAI-1 (n = 15 603), tPA (n = 6876,) and D-dimer (n = 19 306) from 12 cohorts of European ancestry with diverse study design were conducted, including single-variant analyses and gene-based burden testing.ResultsFive variants located in NME7, FGL1, and the fibrinogen locus, all associated with D-dimer levels, achieved genome-wide significance (P

BackgroundSeveral hemostatic factors and inflammatory markers are associated with the risk of incident venous thromboembolism (VTE), however, most existing data are from case-control studies in Caucasian populations.ObjectivesWe aimed to prospectively confirm previous findings and explore less studied biomarkers in relation to VTE risk in a multi-racial/multi-ethnic cohort.MethodsCirculating levels of factor VIII, fibrinogen, D-dimer, plasmin-antiplasmin complex (PAP), C-reactive protein (CRP), and interleukin-6 (IL-6) were measured at baseline (2000-2002) in 6706 participants of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Incident VTE was identified using hospitalization discharge codes from baseline to December 31, 2015. Hazard ratios (HRs) of VTE were estimated in Cox regression models.ResultsThere were 227 events during a median of 14 years of follow-up. Compared with participants in the lowest quartile, the HRs for those above the 95th percentile and p for trend across categories were 3.50 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.98-6.19; p

We examined associations of individual- and neighborhood-level life-course (LC) socioeconomic status (SES) with incident dementia in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort. Individual- and neighborhood-level SES were assessed at 3 life epochs (childhood, young adulthood, midlife) via questionnaire (2001-2002) and summarized into LC-SES scores. Dementia was ascertained through 2013 using cognitive exams, telephone interviews, and hospital and death certificate codes. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios of dementia by LC-SES scores in race-specific models. The analyses included data from 12,599 participants (25% Black) in the United States, with a mean age of 54 years and median follow-up of 24 years. Each standard-deviation greater individual LC-SES score was associated with a 14% (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.81, 0.92) lower risk of dementia in White and 21% (HR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.71, 0.87) lower risk in Black participants. Education was removed from the individual LC-SES score and adjusted for separately to assess economic factors of LC-SES. A standard-deviation greater individual LC-SES score, without education, was associated with a 10% (HR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.84, 0.97) lower dementia risk in White and 15% (HR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.76, 0.96) lower risk in Black participants. Neighborhood LC-SES was not associated with dementia. We found that individual LC-SES is a risk factor for dementia, whereas neighborhood LC-SES was not associated.

ObjectiveWe aimed to assess the association between migraine headache and incident dementia.BackgroundMigraine is a risk factor for white matter hyperintensities and ischemic stroke, which are both associated with increased risk of dementia. However, it is unknown whether migraine is independently associated with dementia.MethodsHistory of migraine was ascertained via questionnaire. Adjudicated cases of dementia were identified using cognitive tests, neuropsychological exams, and clinician review of suspected cases. Incident dementia was identified using adjudicated cases, follow-up calls, and surveillance of hospital and death codes. We assessed hazards of incident dementia by migraine status. Sex differences were also examined and stratified results were presented.ResultsAnalysis included 12,495 White and African American participants ages 51-70 with a median follow-up time of 21 years. Prevalence of dementia was 18.5% (1821/9955) among those with no migraine history, 15.8% (196/1243) among those with severe non-migraine heading, and 16.7% (233/1397) among migraineurs. There was no association between migraine and incident dementia [hazard ratio: 1.04 (0.91, 1.20)]. There was also no statistically significant interaction between sex and migraine status on risk of dementia.ConclusionDespite evidence of brain abnormalities in migraineurs, there was no association between migraine and incident dementia in this prospective cohort.

Infections of herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1), cytomegalovirus (CMV), Helicobacter pylori, and Chlamydia pneumoniae may play a role in cognitive decline via systemic inflammation. We hypothesized that Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study participants who were seropositive in midlife for antibodies to HSV-1, CMV, H pylori, or C pneumoniae would have an accelerated rate of cognitive decline over 20 years. Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities performed a case-cohort study involving a stratified random sample of participants tested for serum immunoglobulin G antibodies to the pathogens of interest. We conducted a longitudinal study using this cohort. Cognitive change was measured using Z scores from the Delayed Word Recall (DWR), Digit Symbol Substitution (DSS), and Word Fluency (WF) Tests administered at visits 2 (1990-1992), 4 (1996-1998), and 5 (2011-2013). Linear regression models with generalized estimating equations and inverse probability of attrition weights were used to evaluate associations between infection and cognitive performance. Four hundred twenty-six participants were analyzed, of which 3% were seronegative for all 4 infections, 14% seropositive for one, 33% and 34% seropositive for 2 and 3, respectively, and 16% seropositive for all infections. At baseline, test scores were significantly lower for participants seropositive for H pylori and C pneumoniae. After baseline covariate adjustment, the rate of decline in DWR, DSS, WF, and global Z scores did not differ significantly by infection status for any of the 4 infections. There was also no significant association between the number of infections for which participants were seropositive and cognitive decline. Our study provides no evidence supporting a longitudinal relationship between seropositivity and cognitive decline.

BackgroundAbnormal thyroid hormone levels (high or low) and autoimmunity from autoimmune thyroid disease (AITD) may increase dementia risk.MethodsWe examined the associations of thyroid dysfunction or possible AITD in 1990 - 1992 with dementia through 2017 in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Neurocognitive Study. Thyroid dysfunction (subclinical and overt hypo- or hyperthyroidism and euthyroidism) was categorized from serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and free thyroxine (FT4) cut-points and AITD from anti-thyroid peroxidase (anti-TPO) antibody positivity. Dementia was identified primarily based on cognitive test performance, neuropsychological examinations and clinician review of suspected cases. Additional cases of dementia were ascertained through telephone interviews or relevant hospital and death certificate codes. Cox regression with multivariable adjustment was used for analysis.ResultsAfter exclusions for missing data, 12,481 participants were included in the analysis (mean index exam age 57 ± 5.7 (44% male, 25% black)), and 2,235 incident dementia cases were identified. AITD was not significantly associated with dementia. Subclinical hypothyroidism was associated with a lower risk of dementia (hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval (CI)): 0.74 (0.60 - 0.92)), while overt hyperthyroidism was associated with a higher risk of dementia (HR (95% CI): 1.40 (1.02 - 1.92)) compared to euthyroid participants. Participants with serum FT4 concentrations above the 95th percentile were at an increased risk of dementia compared to those in the middle 90% of FT4 (HR (95% CI): 1.23 (1.02 - 1.48)).ConclusionsSubclinical hypothyroidism was associated with reduced risk of dementia, whereas overt hyperthyroidism, particularly very elevated FT4, was associated with increased risk of dementia. The association between subclinical hypothyroidism and reduced risk of dementia cannot be explained, but may have been an artifact due to change. By extrapolation, effective treatment of overt hyperthyroidism may modestly reduce dementia risk in older adults.

IntroductionIn 2010, the American Heart Association initiated Life's Simple 7 with the goal of significantly improving cardiovascular health by the year 2020. The association of Life's Simple 7 with risk of peripheral artery disease has not been thoroughly explored.MethodsRacially diverse individuals from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (2000-2012) were followed for incident peripheral artery disease (ankle brachial index ≤0.90) and decline in ankle brachial index (≥0.15) over approximately 10 years of follow-up. Cox and logistic regression were used to assess associations of individual Life's Simple 7 components (score 0-2) and overall Life's Simple 7 score (score 0-14) with incident peripheral artery disease and ankle brachial index decline, respectively, adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, and income. Analyses were performed in 2016-2018.ResultsOf 5,529 participants, 251 (4.5%) developed incident peripheral artery disease; 419 (9.8%) of 4,267 participants experienced a decline in ankle brachial index. Each point higher for the overall Life's Simple 7 score was associated with a 17% lower rate of incident peripheral artery disease (hazard ratio=0.83, 95% CI=0.78, 0.88, p

Geographic differences in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality among African Americans (AAs) are well-established, but not well-characterized. Using the Minnesota Heart Survey (MHS) and Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, we aimed to assess whether CVD risk factors drive geographic disparities in CVD mortality among AAs. ARIC risk factors were measured between1987-1989 from a population-based sample of AAs, aged 45 to 64 years, living in Jackson, MS and Forsyth County, NC. Similar measures were made at MHS baseline, 1985, in AAs from Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN. CVD mortality was identified using ICD codes for underlying cause of death. We compared MHS and ARIC on CVD death rates using Poisson regression, risk factor prevalences, and hazard ratios using Cox regression. After CVD risk factor adjustment, AA men in MHS had 3.4 (95% CI: 2.1, 4.7) CVD deaths per 1000 person-years vs 9.9 (95% CI: 8.7, 11.1) in ARIC. AA women in MHS had 2.7 (95% CI: 1.8, 3.6) CVD deaths per 1000 person-years vs 6.7 (95% CI: 6.0, 7.4) in ARIC. A 2-fold higher CVD mortality rate remained in ARIC vs MHS after additional adjustment for education and income. ARIC had higher total cholesterol, hypertension, diabetes, and BMI, as well as less education and income than MHS. Risk factor hazard ratios of CVD death did not differ. The CVD death rate was lower in AAs in Minnesota (MHS) than AAs in the Southeast (ARIC). While our findings support maintaining low risk for CVD prevention, differences in CVD mortality reflect unidentified geographic variation.

AimsWhile coronary artery calcium (CAC) has been extensively validated for predicting clinical events, most outcome studies of CAC have evaluated coronary heart disease (CHD) rather than atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events (including stroke). Also, virtually all CAC studies are of short- or intermediate-term follow-up, so studies across multi-ethnic cohorts with long-term follow-up are warranted prior to widespread clinical use. We sought to evaluate the contribution of CAC using the population-based MESA cohort with over 10 years of follow-up for ASCVD events, and whether the association of CAC with events varied by sex, race/ethnicity, or age category.Methods and resultsWe utilized MESA, a prospective multi-ethnic cohort study of 6814 participants (51% women), aged 45-84 years, free of clinical CVD at baseline. We evaluated the relationship between CAC and incident ASCVD using Cox regression models adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, sex, education, income, cigarette smoking status, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diabetes, lipid-lowering medication, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication, intentional physical exercise, and body mass index. Only the first event for each individual was used in the analysis. Overall, 500 incident ASCVD (7.4%) events were observed in the total study population over a median of 11.1 years. Hard ASCVD included 217 myocardial infarction, 188 strokes (not transient ischaemic attack), 13 resuscitated cardiac arrest, and 82 CHD deaths. Event rates in those with CAC = 0 Agatston units ranged from 1.3% to 5.6%, while for those with CAC > 300, the 10-year event rates ranged from 13.1% to 25.6% across different age, gender, and racial subgroups. At 10 years of follow-up, all participants with CAC > 100 were estimated to have >7.5% risk regardless of demographic subset. Ten-year ASCVD event rates increased steadily across CAC categories regardless of age, sex, or race/ethnicity. For each doubling of CAC, we estimated a 14% relative increment in ASCVD risk, holding all other risk factors constant. This association was not significantly modified by age, sex, race/ethnicity, or baseline lipid-lowering use.ConclusionsCoronary artery calcium is associated strongly and in a graded fashion with 10-year risk of incident ASCVD as it is for CHD, independent of standard risk factors, and similarly by age, gender, and ethnicity. While 10-year event rates in those with CAC = 0 were almost exclusively below 5%, those with CAC ≥ 100 were consistently above 7.5%, making these potentially valuable cutpoints for the consideration of preventive therapies. Coronary artery calcium strongly predicts risk with the same magnitude of effect in all races, age groups, and both sexes, which makes it among the most useful markers for predicting ASCVD risk.

A sex × diabetes interaction in cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been established among white persons; however, it is unknown whether this interaction occurs among African Americans. We hypothesized that there was a multiplicative sex × diabetes interaction for CVD among African Americans participating in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (1987-2013). Race-specific Cox models were run in three stages: Stage 1 examined baseline diabetes status; stage 2 examined baseline diabetes status with the competing risk of non-CVD death; and stage 3 examined time-varying diabetes status with a competing risk of non-CVD death. There were 1,073 incident CVD events among 3,767 African Americans and 2,475 among 10,291 white persons. Among African Americans, in stage 1 analysis, the hazard ratio for women with diabetes was 2.3 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.0, 2.7) compared with women without diabetes after adjustment for age, and the corresponding hazard ratio for men was 1.8 (95% CI: 1.5, 2.1) (P for interaction = 0.014). After full adjustment, the diabetes hazard ratio was attenuated to 2.0 (95% CI: 1.8, 2.3) among women and remained 1.8 (95% CI: 1.5, 2.1) for men (P for interaction = 0.058). A synergistic influence on CVD risk between being a black woman and having diabetes was consistent across stage 2 and stage 3 analyses, with marginally significant interaction, mirroring sex differences seen in whites.

Background and aimsResults from prospective studies evaluating the relationship between elevated lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) activity and incident peripheral arterial disease (PAD) have been mixed. We investigated whether higher Lp-PLA2 levels are associated with increased risk of incident PAD and whether PLA2G7 gene variants, which result in lower Lp-PLA2 levels, are associated with reduced risk of incident PAD.MethodsOur analysis included 9922 participants (56% female; 21% African-American; mean age 63 years) without baseline PAD at ARIC Visit 4 (1996-1998), who had Lp-PLA2 activity measured and were subsequently followed for the development of PAD, defined by occurrence of a PAD-related hospitalization, through 2012. Cox proportional hazard models were performed to determine the association of Lp-PLA2 levels and PLA2G7 gene variants with incident PAD.ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 14.9 years, we identified 756 incident cases of PAD. In analyses adjusting for age, race, and sex, each standard deviation increment in Lp-PLA2 activity (62 nmol/ml/min) was associated with a higher risk of developing PAD (hazard ratio (HR) 1.17; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09, 1.26). This association remained significant after additional adjustment for risk factors, other cardiovascular disease, and medication use, but was strongly attenuated (HR: 1.09; 95% CI 1.00, 1.20). PLA2G7 variants were not associated with a lower risk of PAD in both white carriers (HR: 1.21; 95% CI: 0.17-8.56) and African-American carriers (HR: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.41-1.67), although statistical power was quite limited for this analysis, particularly in whites.ConclusionsWhile higher Lp-PLA2 activity was associated with an increased risk for incident PAD, it is likely a risk marker largely represented by traditional risk factors.

Background and aimsReduced kidney function is a risk factor for lower-extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD). However, the associations of novel filtration markers with PAD are yet to be quantified. Moreover, little is known on whether bone-mineral metabolism (BMM) markers are related to incident PAD beyond kidney function.MethodsUsing data from 12,472 participants at baseline (1990-1992) of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, we comprehensively quantified the associations of kidney related markers with incident PAD (defined as hospitalizations with diagnosis of lower-extremity atherosclerosis, revascularization, or amputation). Kidney related markers of interest included estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (based on creatinine, cystatin C, and both), cystatin C, beta-2 microglobulin (B2M), and BMM markers (serum fibroblast growth factor 23, parathyroid hormone, calcium, and phosphorus).ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 21 years, 471 participants developed incident PAD. Low eGFR was significantly associated with future PAD risk, with slightly stronger relationship when cystatin C was used (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 6.3-8.3 for eGFR

Plasminogen activator inhibitor type 1 (PAI-1) plays an essential role in the fibrinolysis system and thrombosis. Population studies have reported that blood PAI-1 levels are associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). However, it is unclear whether the association reflects a causal influence of PAI-1 on CHD risk. To evaluate the association between PAI-1 and CHD, we applied a 3-step strategy. First, we investigated the observational association between PAI-1 and CHD incidence using a systematic review based on a literature search for PAI-1 and CHD studies. Second, we explored the causal association between PAI-1 and CHD using a Mendelian randomization approach using summary statistics from large genome-wide association studies. Finally, we explored the causal effect of PAI-1 on cardiovascular risk factors including metabolic and subclinical atherosclerosis measures. In the systematic meta-analysis, the highest quantile of blood PAI-1 level was associated with higher CHD risk comparing with the lowest quantile (odds ratio=2.17; 95% CI: 1.53, 3.07) in an age- and sex-adjusted model. The effect size was reduced in studies using a multivariable-adjusted model (odds ratio=1.46; 95% CI: 1.13, 1.88). The Mendelian randomization analyses suggested a causal effect of increased PAI-1 level on CHD risk (odds ratio=1.22 per unit increase of log-transformed PAI-1; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.47). In addition, we also detected a causal effect of PAI-1 on elevating blood glucose and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Our study indicates a causal effect of elevated PAI-1 level on CHD risk, which may be mediated by glucose dysfunction.

BackgroundMuch controversy surrounds the association of traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors with venous thromboembolism (VTE).MethodsWe performed an individual level random-effect meta-analysis including 9 prospective studies with measured baseline cardiovascular disease risk factors and validated VTE events. Definitions were harmonized across studies. Traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors were modeled categorically and continuously using restricted cubic splines. Estimates were obtained for overall VTE, provoked VTE (ie, VTE occurring in the presence of 1 or more established VTE risk factors), and unprovoked VTE, pulmonary embolism, and deep-vein thrombosis.ResultsThe studies included 244 865 participants with 4910 VTE events occurring during a mean follow-up of 4.7 to 19.7 years per study. Age, sex, and body mass index-adjusted hazard ratios for overall VTE were 0.98 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.89-1.07) for hypertension, 0.97 (95% CI: 0.88-1.08) for hyperlipidemia, 1.01 (95% CI: 0.89-1.15) for diabetes mellitus, and 1.19 (95% CI: 1.08-1.32) for current smoking. After full adjustment, these estimates were numerically similar. When modeled continuously, an inverse association was observed for systolic blood pressure (hazard ratio=0.79 [95% CI: 0.68-0.92] at systolic blood pressure 160 vs 110 mm Hg) but not for diastolic blood pressure or lipid measures with VTE. An important finding from VTE subtype analyses was that cigarette smoking was associated with provoked but not unprovoked VTE. Fully adjusted hazard ratios for the associations of current smoking with provoked and unprovoked VTE were 1.36 (95% CI: 1.22-1.52) and 1.08 (95% CI: 0.90-1.29), respectively.ConclusionsExcept for the association between cigarette smoking and provoked VTE, which is potentially mediated through comorbid conditions such as cancer, the modifiable traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors are not associated with increased VTE risk. Higher systolic blood pressure showed an inverse association with VTE.

BackgroundFew studies have addressed retention of minorities, particularly African Americans, in longitudinal research. Our aim was to determine whether there was differential retention between African Americans and Whites in the ARIC cohort and identify cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and indicators of socioeconomic status (SES) associated with these retention differences.Methods15,688 participants, 27% African American and 73% White, were included from baseline, 1987-1989, and classified as having died, lost or withdrew from study contact, or remained active in study calls through 2013. Life tables were created illustrating retention patterns stratified by race, from baseline through visit 5, 2011-2013. Prevalence tables stratified by race, participation status, and center were created to examine CVD risk factors and SES at baseline and visit 5.Results54% of African Americans compared with 62% of Whites were still in follow-up by 2013. This difference was due to an 8% higher cumulative incidence of death among African Americans. Those who remained in follow-up had the lowest baseline CVD risk factors and better SES, followed by those who were lost/withdrew, then those who died. Whites had lower levels of most CVD risk factors and higher SES than African Americans overall at baseline and visit 5; though, the magnitude of visit 5 differences was less.ConclusionsIn the ARIC cohort, retention differed among African Americans and Whites, but related more to mortality differences than dropping-out. Additional research is needed to better characterize the factors contributing to minority participants' recruitment and retention in longitudinal research.

Background and aimsNumerous biological pathways linking sleep disturbances to atherosclerosis have been identified, such as insulin resistance, inflammation, hypertension, and endothelial dysfunction. Yet, the association of sleep apnea and sleep duration with peripheral artery disease (PAD) is not well characterized.MethodsWe evaluated the cross-sectional association between objectively measured sleep and prevalent PAD in 1844 participants (mean age 68 years) who in 2010-2013 had in-home polysomnography, 7-day wrist actigraphy and ankle-brachial index (ABI) measurements. We also evaluated the relation between self-reported diagnosed sleep apnea and PAD incidence in 5365 participants followed from 2000 to 2012. PAD was defined as ABI

ObjectiveControlling cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in diabetes mellitus (DM) reduces the number of CVD events, but the effects of multifactorial risk factor control are not well quantified. We examined whether being at targets for blood pressure (BP), LDL cholesterol (LDL-C), and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) together are associated with lower risks for CVD events in U.S. adults with DM.Research design and methodsWe studied 2,018 adults, 28-86 years of age with DM but without known CVD, from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), and Jackson Heart Study (JHS). Cox regression examined coronary heart disease (CHD) and CVD events over a mean 11-year follow-up in those individuals at BP, LDL-C, and HbA1c target levels, and by the number of controlled risk factors.ResultsOf 2,018 DM subjects (43% male, 55% African American), 41.8%, 32.1%, and 41.9% were at target levels for BP, LDL-C, and HbA1c, respectively; 41.1%, 26.5%, and 7.2% were at target levels for any one, two, or all three factors, respectively. Being at BP, LDL-C, or HbA1c target levels related to 17%, 33%, and 37% lower CVD risks and 17%, 41%, and 36% lower CHD risks, respectively (P < 0.05 to P < 0.0001, except for BP in CHD risk); those subjects with one, two, or all three risk factors at target levels (vs. none) had incrementally lower adjusted risks of CVD events of 36%, 52%, and 62%, respectively, and incrementally lower adjusted risks of CHD events of 41%, 56%, and 60%, respectively (P < 0.001 to P < 0.0001). Propensity score adjustment showed similar findings.ConclusionsOptimal levels of BP, LDL-C, and HbA1c occurring together in individuals with DM are uncommon, but are associated with substantially lower risk of CHD and CVD.

IntroductionEpidemiological studies generally have not found plasma total fibrinogen to be a risk factor for venous thromboembolism (VTE), but several have reported associations between variants in the fibrinogen gamma gene (FGG) and VTE. A case-control study in whites suggested plasma γ' fibrinogen concentration may be associated inversely with VTE, but this was not replicated in African Americans.ObjectiveTo examine the prospective association between γ' fibrinogen concentrations and occurrence of VTE.MethodsWe used the Longitudinal Investigation of Thromboembolism Etiology (LITE), involving two pooled population-based cohorts in the United States including 16,234 participants. The cohorts comprised white and African American men and women, aged 50years and older at study onset in the early 1990s. We identified VTEs during follow-up and documented they met standardized diagnostic criteria.ResultsDuring two decades of follow-up, neither γ' fibrinogen nor total fibrinogen nor their ratio was associated with VTE overall (n=521 VTEs), in subgroups defined by race, or in other subgroups. In both race groups, the minor allele of FGG rs2066865 was associated with lower γ' fibrinogen concentrations, but this allele was not associated with VTE.ConclusionsA lower plasma concentration of γ' fibrinogen in healthy adults does not appear to increase VTE risk.

BackgroundData are limited on genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for incident coronary heart disease (CHD). Moreover, it is not known whether genetic variants identified to date also associate with risk of CHD in a prospective setting.MethodsWe performed a two-stage GWAS analysis of incident myocardial infarction (MI) and CHD in a total of 64,297 individuals (including 3898 MI cases, 5465 CHD cases). SNPs that passed an arbitrary threshold of 5×10-6 in Stage I were taken to Stage II for further discovery. Furthermore, in an analysis of prognosis, we studied whether known SNPs from former GWAS were associated with total mortality in individuals who experienced MI during follow-up.ResultsIn Stage I 15 loci passed the threshold of 5×10-6; 8 loci for MI and 8 loci for CHD, for which one locus overlapped and none were reported in previous GWAS meta-analyses. We took 60 SNPs representing these 15 loci to Stage II of discovery. Four SNPs near QKI showed nominally significant association with MI (p-value

ImportanceMyocardial scarring leads to cardiac dysfunction and poor prognosis. The prevalence of and factors associated with unrecognized myocardial infarction and scar have not been previously defined using contemporary methods in a multiethnic US population.ObjectiveTo determine prevalence of and factors associated with myocardial scar in middle- and older-aged individuals in the United States.Design, setting, and participantsThe Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) study is a population-based cohort in the United States. Participants were aged 45 through 84 years and free of clinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline in 2000-2002. In the 10th year examination (2010-2012), 1840 participants underwent cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging with gadolinium to detect myocardial scar. Cardiovascular disease risk factors and coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores were measured at baseline and year 10. Logistic regression models were used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for myocardial scar.ExposuresCardiovascular risk factors, CAC scores, left ventricle size and function, and carotid intima-media thickness.Main outcomes and measuresMyocardial scar detected by CMR imaging.ResultsOf 1840 participants (mean [SD] age, 68 [9] years, 52% men), 146 (7.9%) had myocardial scars, of which 114 (78%) were undetected by electrocardiogram or by clinical adjudication. In adjusted models, age, male sex, body mass index, hypertension, and current smoking at baseline were associated with myocardial scar at year 10. The OR per 8.9-year increment was 1.61 (95% CI, 1.36-1.91; P

Background and aimsAn elevated plasma concentration of intrinsic coagulation factor XI is a risk factor for venous thromboembolism, but its role in the etiology of atherothrombotic outcomes is uncertain. We examined the association of factor XI with incident stroke and coronary heart disease in the prospective Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.MethodsWe measured factor XI on plasma samples collected in 1993-1995 from middle-aged adults (n = 11,439), who were followed through 2012 for incident cardiovascular events.ResultsOver a median of 18 years of follow-up (max = 20 years), 722 participants had incident stroke events (631 ischemic and 91 hemorrhagic) and 1776 had incident coronary events. Although there were weak positive associations between factor XI and total, ischemic, cardioembolic, and nonlacunar stroke, when adjusted for demographics, further adjustment for other stroke risk factors eliminated the associations. Similarly, there was no independent association of factor XI with incident coronary heart disease events.ConclusionA higher basal factor XI concentration in the general population was not a risk marker for stroke or coronary heart disease.

IntroductionPlasma D-dimer is a useful clinical test for acute venous thromboembolism (VTE), and concentrations remain higher in VTE patients after treatment than in controls. Yet, evidence is limited on whether higher basal D-dimer concentrations in the general population are associated with greater risk of first VTE.ObjectiveTo assess the prospective association between D-dimer and incident VTE over a long follow-up.MethodsWe measured plasma D-dimer in 12,097 participants, initially free of VTE, in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. Over a median follow-up of 17years, we identified 521 VTEs. We calculated hazard ratios of VTE using proportional hazards regression.ResultsThe age, race, and sex adjusted hazard ratios of VTE across quintiles of D-dimer were 1, 1.5, 1.8, 2.1, and 3.2 (p for trend

BackgroundSeveral studies have demonstrated the tremendous potential of using coronary artery calcium (CAC) in addition to traditional risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) risk prediction. However, to date, no risk score incorporating CAC has been developed.ObjectivesThe goal of this study was to derive and validate a novel risk score to estimate 10-year CHD risk using CAC and traditional risk factors.MethodsAlgorithm development was conducted in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), a prospective community-based cohort study of 6,814 participants age 45 to 84 years, who were free of clinical heart disease at baseline and followed for 10 years. MESA is sex balanced and included 39% non-Hispanic whites, 12% Chinese Americans, 28% African Americans, and 22% Hispanic Americans. External validation was conducted in the HNR (Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study) and the DHS (Dallas Heart Study).ResultsInclusion of CAC in the MESA risk score offered significant improvements in risk prediction (C-statistic 0.80 vs. 0.75; p < 0.0001). External validation in both the HNR and DHS studies provided evidence of very good discrimination and calibration. Harrell's C-statistic was 0.779 in HNR and 0.816 in DHS. Additionally, the difference in estimated 10-year risk between events and nonevents was approximately 8% to 9%, indicating excellent discrimination. Mean calibration, or calibration-in-the-large, was excellent for both studies, with average predicted 10-year risk within one-half of a percent of the observed event rate.ConclusionsAn accurate estimate of 10-year CHD risk can be obtained using traditional risk factors and CAC. The MESA risk score, which is available online on the MESA web site for easy use, can be used to aid clinicians when communicating risk to patients and when determining risk-based treatment strategies.