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A significant barrier to achieving the radial velocity (RV) measurement accuracy and precision required to characterize terrestrial mass exoplanets is the existence of time-variable features in the measured spectra, from both telluric absorption and stellar variability, which affect measured line shapes and can cause apparent RV shifts. Reaching the desired accuracy using traditional techniques often requires avoiding lines contaminated by stellar variability and/or changing tellurics, and thus discarding a large fraction of the spectrum, lowering precision. New data-driven methods can help achieve extremely precise and accurate RVs by enabling the use of a larger fraction of the available data. While there exist methods for modeling telluric features or the stellar variability individually, there is a need for additional tools that are capable of modeling them simultaneously at the spectral level. Here we present StellarSpectraObservationFitting.jl (SSOF), a Julia package for measuring Doppler shifts and creating data-driven models (with fast, physically-motivated Gaussian Process regularization) for the time-variable spectral features for both the telluric transmission and stellar spectrum, while accounting for the wavelength-dependent instrumental line-spread function. We demonstrate SSOF's state-of-the-art performance on data from the NEID RV spectrograph on the WIYN 3.5m Telescope for multiple stars. We show SSOF's, ability to accurately identify and characterize spectral variability and provide $\sim$2-6x smaller photon-limited errors over the NEID CCF-based pipeline and match the performance of SERVAL, a leading template-based pipeline, using only observed EPRV spectra., Comment: 47 pages, 21 figures, 7 tables. In revision for AAS Journals. Code at https://github.com/christiangil/StellarSpectraObservationFitting.jl

We present the results of Sun-as-a-star observations by the NEID Solar Telescope at WIYN Observatory, spanning January 1, 2021 through June 30, 2024. We identify 117,060 observations which are unlikely to be significantly affected by weather, hardware or major calibration issues. We describe several high-level data products being made available to the community to aid in the interpretation and inter comparisons of NEID solar observations. Solar observations demonstrate excellent performance of NEID, including radial velocity (RV) accuracy and long-term stability of better than $\simeq 0.37$ m s$^{-1}$ over $\simeq 3.5$ years, even though NEID was not originally designed or optimized for daytime observations of the Sun. Currently, intrinsic stellar variability is the primary barrier to detecting Earth-analog planets for most nearby, Sun-like stars. We present a comparison of the effectiveness of several methods proposed to mitigate the effects of solar variability on the Sun's estimated RV. We find that the Scalpels algorithm performs particularly well and substantially reduces the RMS RV of solar spectra from over 2 m s$^{-1}$ to 0.277 m s$^{-1}$. Even when training on a subset of days with NEID solar observations and testing on a held-out sample, the RMS of cleaned RV is 0.34-0.42 m s$^{-1}$. This is significantly better than previous attempts at removing solar variability and suggests that the current generation of EPRV instruments are technically capable of detecting Earth-mass planets orbiting a solar twin if provided with sufficient observing time allocations ($\sim 10^3$ nights of observations)., Comment: 25 pages, 14 figures. Submitted to AAS Journals. Data release archived at https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.13363761

For solar-type stars, spots and their associated magnetic regions induce radial velocity perturbations through the Doppler rotation signal and the suppression of convective blueshift -- collectively known as rotation-modulation. We developed the Rotation-Convection (RC) model: a method of detrending and characterizing rotation-modulation, using only cross-correlation functions or 1-dimensional spectra, without the need for continuous high cadence measurements. The RC method uses a simple model for the anomalous radial velocity induced by an active region and has two inputs: stellar flux (or a flux proxy) and the relative radial velocity between strongly and weakly absorbed wavelengths (analogous to the bisector-inverse slope). On NEID solar data (three month baseline), the RC model lowers the amplitude of rotationally-modulated stellar activity to below the meter-per-second level. For the standard star HD 26965, the RC model detrends the activity signal to the meter-per-second level for HARPS, EXPRES, and NEID observations, even though the temporal density and timespan of the observations differs by an order of magnitude between the three datasets. In addition to detrending, the RC model also characterizes the rotation-modulation signal. From comparison with the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we confirmed that the model accurately recovers and separates the rotation and convection radial velocity components. We also mapped the amplitude of the rotation and convection perturbations as a function of height within the stellar atmosphere. Probing stellar atmospheres with our revised spot model will fuel future innovations in stellar activity mitigation, enabling robust exoplanet detection., Comment: Accepted to AJ, 22 pages, 9 figures

We present a new analysis of Kepler-21, the brightest (V = 8.5) Kepler system with a known transiting exoplanet, Kepler-21 b. Kepler-21 b is a radius valley planet ($R = 1.6\pm 0.2 R_{\oplus}$) with an Earth-like composition (8.38$\pm$1.62 g/cc), though its mass and radius fall in the regime of possible "water worlds." We utilize new Keck/HIRES and WIYN/NEID radial velocity (RV) data in conjunction with Kepler and TESS photometry to perform a detailed study of activity mitigation between photometry and RVs. We additionally refine the system parameters, and we utilize Gaia astrometry to place constraints on a long-term RV trend. Our activity analysis affirms the quality of Kepler photometry for removing correlated noise from RVs, despite its temporal distance, though we reveal some cases where TESS may be superior. Using refined orbital parameters and updated composition curves, we rule out a ``water world" scenario for Kepler-21 b, and we identify a long period super-Jupiter planetary candidate, Kepler-21 (c).

The Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) will seek to detect and characterize potentially Earth-like planets around other stars. To ensure that the mission achieves the Astro2020 Decadal's recommended goal of 25 exoEarth candidates (EECs), we must take into account the probabilistic nature of exoplanet detections and provide "science margin" to budget for astrophysical uncertainties with a reasonable level of confidence. In this study, we explore the probabilistic distributions of yields to be expected from a blind exoEarth survey conducted by such a mission. We identify and estimate the impact of all major known sources of astrophysical uncertainty on the exoEarth candidate yield. As expected, eta_Earth uncertainties dominate the uncertainty in EEC yield, but we show that sampling uncertainties inherent to a blind survey are another important source of uncertainty that should be budgeted for during mission design. We adopt the Large UV/Optical/IR Surveyor Design B (LUVOIR-B) as a baseline and modify the telescope diameter to estimate the science margin provided by a larger telescope. We then depart from the LUVOIR-B baseline design and identify six possible design changes that, when compiled, provide large gains in exoEarth candidate yield and more than an order of magnitude reduction in exposure times for the highest priority targets. We conclude that a combination of telescope diameter increase and design improvements could provide robust exoplanet science margins for HWO., Comment: 90 pages, 26 figures, 4 tables, Submitted to JATIS

We present an updated version of GRASS (the GRanulation And Spectrum Simulator, Palumbo et al. 2022) which now uses an expanded library of 22 solar lines to empirically model time-resolved spectral variations arising from solar granulation. We show that our synthesis model accurately reproduces disk-integrated solar line profiles and bisectors, and we quantify the intrinsic granulation-driven radial-velocity (RV) variability for each of the 22 lines studied. We show that summary statistics of bisector shape (e.g., bisector inverse slope) are strongly correlated with the measured anomalous, variability-driven RV at high pixel signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and spectral resolution. Further, the strength of the correlations vary both line by line and with the summary statistic used. These correlations disappear for individual lines at the typical spectral resolutions and SNRs achieved by current EPRV spectrographs; so we use simulations from GRASS to demonstrate that they can, in principle, be recovered by selectively binning lines that are similarly affected by granulation. In the best-case scenario (high SNR and large number of binned lines), we find that a $\lesssim$30$\%$ reduction in the granulation-induced root mean square (RMS) RV can be achieved, but that the achievable reduction in variability is most strongly limited by the spectral resolution of the observing instrument. Based on our simulations, we predict that existing ultra-high-resolution spectrographs, namely ESPRESSO and PEPSI, should be able to resolve convective variability in other, bright stars., Comment: 20 + 16 pages, 6 + 11 figures, 4 tables; in revision for AJ

We revisit the long-studied radial velocity (RV) target HD26965 using recent observations from the NASA-NSF 'NEID' precision Doppler facility. Leveraging a suite of classical activity indicators, combined with line-by-line RV analyses, we demonstrate that the claimed 45-day signal previously identified as a planet candidate is most likely an activity-induced signal. Correlating the bulk (spectrally-averaged) RV with canonical line activity indicators confirms a multi-day 'lag' between the observed activity indicator time series and the measured RV. When accounting for this lag, we show that much of the observed RV signal can be removed by a linear detrending of the data. Investigating activity at the line-by-line level, we find a depth-dependent correlation between individual line RVs and the bulk RVs, further indicative of periodic suppression of convective blueshift causing the observed RV variability, rather than an orbiting planet. We conclude that the combined evidence of the activity correlations and depth dependence is consistent with a radial velocity signature dominated by a rotationally-modulated activity signal at a period of $\sim$42 days. We hypothesize that this activity signature is due to a combination of spots and convective blueshift suppression. The tools applied in our analysis are broadly applicable to other stars, and could help paint a more comprehensive picture of the manifestations of stellar activity in future Doppler RV surveys., Comment: 25 pages, 13 figures. Accepted in AJ

Recent discoveries of transiting giant exoplanets around M-dwarf stars (GEMS), aided by the all-sky coverage of TESS, are starting to stretch theories of planet formation through the core-accretion scenario. Recent upper limits on their occurrence suggest that they decrease with lower stellar masses, with fewer GEMS around lower-mass stars compared to solar-type. In this paper, we discuss existing GEMS both through confirmed planets, as well as protoplanetary disk observations, and a combination of tests to reconcile these with theoretical predictions. We then introduce the \textit{Searching for GEMS} survey, where we utilize multi-dimensional nonparameteric statistics to simulate hypothetical survey scenarios to predict the required sample size of transiting GEMS with mass measurements to robustly compare their bulk-density with canonical hot-Jupiters orbiting FGK stars. Our Monte-Carlo simulations predict that a robust comparison requires about 40 transiting GEMS (compared to the existing sample of $\sim$ 15) with 5-$\sigma$ mass measurements. Furthermore, we discuss the limitations of existing occurrence estimates for GEMS, and provide a brief description of our planned systematic search to improve the occurrence rate estimates for GEMS., Comment: 16 pages + references, including 7 figures. Accepted in AAS Journals

We present a new catalog of Kepler planet candidates that prioritizes accuracy of planetary dispositions and properties over uniformity. This catalog contains 4376 transiting planet candidates, including 1791 residing within 709 multi-planet systems, and provides the best parameters available for a large sample of Kepler planet candidates. We also provide a second set of stellar and planetary properties for transiting candidates that are uniformly-derived for use in occurrence rates studies. Estimates of orbital periods have been improved, but as in previous catalogs, our tabulated values for period uncertainties do not fully account for transit timing variations (TTVs). We show that many planets are likely to have TTVs with long periodicities caused by various processes, including orbital precession, and that such TTVs imply that ephemerides of Kepler planets are not as accurate on multi-decadal timescales as predicted by the small formal errors (typically 1 part in $10^6$ and rarely $ > 10^{-5}$) in the planets' measured mean orbital periods during the Kepler epoch. Analysis of normalized transit durations implies that eccentricities of planets are anti-correlated with the number of companion transiting planets. Our primary catalog lists all known Kepler planet candidates that orbit and transit only one star; for completeness, we also provide an abbreviated listing of the properties of the two dozen non-transiting planets that have been identified around stars that host transiting planets discovered by Kepler., Comment: 64 pages, 32 figures, 5 tables. Accepted for publication in The Planetary Science Journal. A high-resolution version of Figure 32 can be downloaded from the following link: https://kona.ubishops.ca/architecture/KeplerPlot_large_cbar.png

We present an analysis of Sun-as-a-star observations from four different high-resolution, stabilized spectrographs -- HARPS, HARPS-N, EXPRES, and NEID. With simultaneous observations of the Sun from four different instruments, we are able to gain insight into the radial velocity precision and accuracy delivered by each of these instruments and isolate instrumental systematics that differ from true astrophysical signals. With solar observations, we can completely characterize the expected Doppler shift contributed by orbiting Solar System bodies and remove them. This results in a data set with measured velocity variations that purely trace flows on the solar surface. Direct comparisons of the radial velocities measured by each instrument show remarkable agreement with residual intra-day scatter of only 15-30 cm/s. This shows that current ultra-stabilized instruments have broken through to a new level of measurement precision that reveals stellar variability with high fidelity and detail. We end by discussing how radial velocities from different instruments can be combined to provide powerful leverage for testing techniques to mitigate stellar signals., Comment: 17 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication

Fundamental to our understanding of planetary bulk compositions is the relationship between their masses and radii, two properties that are often not simultaneously known for most exoplanets. However, while many previous studies have modeled the two-dimensional relationship between planetary mass and radii, this approach largely ignores the dependencies on other properties that may have influenced the formation and evolution of the planets. In this work, we extend the existing nonparametric and probabilistic framework of \texttt{MRExo} to jointly model distributions beyond two dimensions. Our updated framework can now simultaneously model up to four observables, while also incorporating asymmetric measurement uncertainties and upper limits in the data. We showcase the potential of this multi-dimensional approach to three science cases: (i) a 4-dimensional joint fit to planetary mass, radius, insolation, and stellar mass, hinting of changes in planetary bulk density across insolation and stellar mass; (ii) a 3-dimensional fit to the California Kepler Survey sample showing how the planet radius valley evolves across different stellar masses; and (iii) a 2-dimensional fit to a sample of Class-II protoplanetary disks in Lupus while incorporating the upper-limits in dust mass measurements. In addition, we employ bootstrap and Monte-Carlo sampling to quantify the impact of the finite sample size as well as measurement uncertainties on the predicted quantities. We update our existing open-source user-friendly \texttt{MRExo} \texttt{Python} package with these changes, which allows users to apply this highly flexible framework to a variety of datasets beyond what we have shown here., Comment: Accepted in ApJ. Updated MRExo package and sample scripts available here: https://github.com/shbhuk/mrexo/tree/v1.0dev. Package will be released on PyPI (pip) along with full documentation upon publication in ApJ

Exoplanets can be detected with various observational techniques. Among them, radial velocity (RV) has the key advantages of revealing the architecture of planetary systems and measuring planetary mass and orbital eccentricities. RV observations are poised to play a key role in the detection and characterization of Earth twins. However, the detection of such small planets is not yet possible due to very complex, temporally correlated instrumental and astrophysical stochastic signals. Furthermore, exploring the large parameter space of RV models exhaustively and efficiently presents difficulties. In this review, we frame RV data analysis as a problem of detection and parameter estimation in unevenly sampled, multivariate time series. The objective of this review is two-fold: to introduce the motivation, methodological challenges, and numerical challenges of RV data analysis to nonspecialists, and to unify the existing advanced approaches in order to identify areas for improvement., Comment: Published in Annual Reviews of Statistics and Its Application, contains the main text and supplemental appendix

We report the discovery of TOI-4127 b, a transiting, Jupiter-sized exoplanet on a long-period ($P = 56.39879^{+0.00010}_{-0.00010}$ d), high-eccentricity orbit around a late F-type dwarf star. This warm Jupiter was first detected and identified as a promising candidate from a search for single-transit signals in TESS Sector 20 data, and later characterized as a planet following two subsequent transits (TESS Sectors 26 and 53) and follow-up ground-based RV observations with the NEID and SOPHIE spectrographs. We jointly fit the transit and RV data to constrain the physical ($R_p = 1.096^{+0.039}_{-0.032} R_J$, $M_p = 2.30^{+0.11}_{-0.11} M_J$) and orbital parameters of the exoplanet. Given its high orbital eccentricity ($e=0.7471^{+0.0078}_{-0.0086}$), TOI-4127 b is a compelling candidate for studies of warm Jupiter populations and of hot Jupiter formation pathways. We show that the present periastron separation of TOI-4127 b is too large for high-eccentricity tidal migration to circularize its orbit, and that TOI-4127 b is unlikely to be a hot Jupiter progenitor unless it is undergoing angular momentum exchange with an undetected outer companion. Although we find no evidence for an external companion, the available observational data are insufficient to rule out the presence of a perturber that can excite eccentricity oscillations and facilitate tidal migration.

We report the results of observations of p-mode oscillations in the G0 subgiant star HD 35833 in both radial velocities and photometry with NEID and TESS, respectively. We achieve separate, robust detections of the oscillation signal with both instruments (radial velocity amplitude $A_{\rm RV}=1.11\pm0.09$ m s$^{-1}$, photometric amplitude $A_{\rm phot}=6.42\pm0.60$ ppm, frequency of maximum power $\nu_{\rm max} = 595.71\pm17.28$ $\mu$Hz, and mode spacing $\Delta \nu = 36.65\pm0.96$ $\mu$Hz) as well as a non-detection in a TESS sector concurrent with the NEID observations. These data shed light on our ability to mitigate the correlated noise impact of oscillations with radial velocities alone, and on the robustness of commonly used asteroseismic scaling relations. The NEID data are used to validate models for the attenuation of oscillation signals for exposure times $t<\nu_{\rm max}^{-1}$, and we compare our results to predictions from theoretical scaling relations and find that the observed amplitudes are weaker than expected by $>4\sigma$, hinting at gaps in the underlying physical models., Comment: 19 Pages, 14 Figures, Appendix

A foundational idea in the theory of in situ planet formation is the "minimum mass extrasolar nebula" (MMEN), a surface density profile ($\Sigma$) of disk solids that is necessary to form the planets in their present locations. While most previous studies have fit a single power-law to all exoplanets in an observed ensemble, it is unclear whether most exoplanetary systems form from a universal disk template. We use an advanced statistical model for the underlying architectures of multi-planet systems to reconstruct the MMEN. The simulated physical and Kepler-observed catalogs allows us to directly assess the role of detection biases, and in particular the effect of non-transiting or otherwise undetected planets, in altering the inferred MMEN. We find that fitting a power-law of the form $\Sigma = \Sigma_0^* (a/a_0)^\beta$ to each multi-planet system results in a broad distribution of disk profiles; $\Sigma_0^* = 336_{-291}^{+727}$ g/cm$^2$ and $\beta = -1.98_{-1.52}^{+1.55}$ encompass the 16th-84th percentiles of the marginal distributions in an underlying population, where $\Sigma_0^*$ is the normalization at $a_0 = 0.3$ AU. Around half of inner planet-forming disks have minimum solid masses of $\gtrsim 40 M_\oplus$ within 1 AU. While transit observations do not tend to bias the median $\beta$, they can lead to both significantly over- and under-estimated $\Sigma_0^*$ and thus broaden the inferred distribution of disk masses. Nevertheless, detection biases cannot account for the full variance in the observed disk profiles; there is no universal MMEN if all planets formed in situ. The great diversity of solid disk profiles suggests that a substantial fraction ($\gtrsim 23\%$) of planetary systems experienced a history of migration., Comment: Accepted to AJ. 14 pages, 6 figures, 1 table. Accompanying code is available via SysSimPyMMEN, a pip-installable Python package (see https://syssimpymmen.readthedocs.io/en/latest/)

We detail the follow up and characterization of a transiting exo-Venus identified by TESS, GJ 3929b, (TOI-2013b) and its non-transiting companion planet, GJ 3929c (TOI-2013c). GJ 3929b is an Earth-sized exoplanet in its star's Venus-zone (P$_{b}$ = 2.616272 $\pm$ 0.000005 days; S$_{b}$ = 17.3$^{+0.8}_{-0.7}$ S$_{\oplus}$) orbiting a nearby M dwarf. GJ 3929c is most likely a non-transiting sub-Neptune. Using the new, ultra-precise NEID spectrometer on the WIYN 3.5 m Telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory, we are able to modify the mass constraints of planet b reported in previous works and consequently improve the significance of the mass measurement to almost 4$\sigma$ confidence (M$_{b}$ = 1.75 $\pm$ 0.45 M$_{\oplus}$). We further adjust the orbital period of planet c from its alias at 14.30 $\pm$ 0.03 days to the likely true period of 15.04 $\pm$ 0.03 days, and adjust its minimum mass to m$\sin i$ = 5.71 $\pm$ 0.92 M$_{\oplus}$. Using the diffuser-assisted ARCTIC imager on the ARC 3.5 m telescope at Apache Point Observatory, in addition to publicly available TESS and LCOGT photometry, we are able to constrain the radius of planet b to R$_{p}$ = 1.09 $\pm$ 0.04 R$_{\oplus}$. GJ 3929b is a top candidate for transmission spectroscopy in its size regime (TSM = 14 $\pm$ 4), and future atmospheric studies of GJ 3929b stand to shed light on the nature of small planets orbiting M dwarfs., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2204.09063

Characterizing the masses and orbits of near-Earth-mass planets is crucial for interpreting observations from future direct imaging missions (e.g., HabEx, LUVOIR). Therefore, the Exoplanet Science Strategy report (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 2018) recommended further research so future extremely precise radial velocity surveys could contribute to the discovery and/or characterization of near-Earth-mass planets in the habitable zones of nearby stars prior to the launch of these future imaging missions. Newman et al. (2021) simulated such 10-year surveys under various telescope architectures, demonstrating they can precisely measure the masses of potentially habitable Earth-mass planets in the absence of stellar variability. Here, we investigate the effect of stellar variability on the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the planet mass measurements in these simulations. We find that correlated noise due to active regions has the largest effect on the observed mass SNR, reducing the SNR by a factor of $\sim$5.5 relative to the no-variability scenario -- granulation reduces by a factor of $\sim$3, while p-mode oscillations has little impact on the proposed survey strategies. We show that in the presence of correlated noise, 5-cm s$^{-1}$ instrumental precision offers little improvement over 10-cm s$^{-1}$ precision, highlighting the need to mitigate astrophysical variability. With our noise models, extending the survey to 15 years doubles the number of Earth-analogs with mass SNR $>$ 10, and reaching this threshold for any Earth-analog orbiting a star $>$ 0.76 M$_{\odot}$ in a 10-year survey would require an increase in number of observations per star from that in Newman et al. (2021)., Comment: 30 pages, 9 figures, accepted in AJ

Tens of thousands of solar-like oscillating stars have been observed by space missions. Their photometric variability in the Fourier domain can be parameterized by a sum of two super-Lorentizian functions for granulation and a Gaussian-shaped power excess for oscillation. The photometric granulation/oscillation parameters scale with stellar parameters and they can also make predictions for corresponding parameters in radial velocity measurements. Based on scaling relations, we simulate realistic radial velocity time series and examine how the root-mean-square scatter of radial velocity measurements varies with stellar parameters and different observation strategies such as the length of integration time and gaps in the time series. Using stars with extensive spectroscopic observations from the spectrographs (SONG and HARPS), we measure the granulation amplitude and timescale from the power spectrum of the radial velocity time series. We compare these measurements with literature values based on Kepler photometry. We find that the granulation amplitude in radial velocity can be well predicted from the photometry and scaling relations. Both granulation timescales in radial velocity agree with those predicted from photometry for giants and sub-giants. However, for main-sequence stars, only one granulation timescale in radial velocity is in agreement with the photometric-based values, while the other timescale generally lies at lower frequencies compared to the result of photometry. In conclusion, we show the photometric scaling relations from Kepler photometry and the scaling relationship to Doppler observations can be very useful for predicting the photometric and radial velocity stellar variabilities due to stellar granulation and oscillation., Comment: Submitted to ApJ, comments welcome

It is often assumed that the "Kepler dichotomy" -- the apparent excess of planetary systems with a single detected transiting planet in the Kepler catalog -- reflects an intrinsic bimodality in the mutual inclinations of planetary orbits. After conducting 600 simulations of planet formation followed by simulated Kepler observations, we instead propose that the apparent dichotomy reflects a divergence in the amount of migration and the separation of planetary semimajor axes into distinct "clusters". We find that our simulated high-mass systems migrate rapidly, bringing more planets into orbital periods of less than 200 days. The outer planets are often caught in a migration trap -- a range of planet masses and locations in which a dominant co-rotation torque prevents inward migration -- which splits the system into two clusters. If clusters are sufficiently separated, the inner cluster remains dynamically cold, leading to low mutual inclinations and a higher probability of detecting multiple transiting planets. Conversely, our simulated low-mass systems typically bring fewer planets inside 200 days, forming a single cluster that quickly becomes dynamically unstable, leading to collisions and high mutual inclinations. We propose an alternative explanation for the apparent Kepler dichotomy in which migration traps during formation lead to fewer planets inside the Kepler detection window, and where mutual inclinations play only a secondary role. If our scenario is correct, then Kepler's STIPs (Systems with Tightly-packed Inner Planets) are a sample of planets that escaped capture by co-rotation traps, and their sizes may be a valuable probe into the structure of protoplanetary discs., Comment: 21 pages, 10 figures. Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal

Close-in gas giants present a surprising range of stellar obliquity, the angle between a planet's orbital axis and its host star's spin axis. It is unclear whether the obliquities reflect the planets' dynamical history (e.g., aligned for in situ formation or disk migration versus misaligned for high-eccentricity tidal migration) or whether other mechanisms (e.g., primordial misalignment or planet-star interactions) are more important in sculpting the obliquity distribution. Here we present the stellar obliquity measurement of TOI-1268 (TIC-142394656, $V_{\rm mag} {\sim} 10.9$), a young K-type dwarf hosting an 8.2-day period, Saturn-sized planet. TOI-1268's lithium abundance and rotation period suggest the system age between the ages of Pleiades cluster (${\sim}120$ Myr) and Praesepe cluster (${\sim}670$ Myr). Using the newly commissioned NEID spectrograph, we constrain the stellar obliquity of TOI-1268 via the Rossiter-McLaughlin (RM) effect from both radial velocity (RV) and Doppler Tomography (DT) signals. The 3$\sigma$ upper bounds of the projected stellar obliquity $|\lambda|$ from both models are below 60$^\circ$. The large host star separation ($a/R_\star {\sim} 17$), combined with the system's young age, makes it unlikely that the planet has realigned its host star. The stellar obliquity measurement of TOI-1268 probes the architecture of a young gas giant beyond the reach of tidal realignment ($a/R_\star {\gtrsim} 10$) and reveals an aligned or slightly misaligned system., Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in ApJL; see independent work by Subjak et al. for RV follow-up of TOI-1268

Measured spectral shifts due to intrinsic stellar variability (e.g., pulsations, granulation) and activity (e.g., spots, plages) are the largest source of error for extreme precision radial velocity (EPRV) exoplanet detection. Several methods are designed to disentangle stellar signals from true center-of-mass shifts due to planets. The EXPRES Stellar Signals Project (ESSP) presents a self-consistent comparison of 22 different methods tested on the same extreme-precision spectroscopic data from EXPRES. Methods derived new activity indicators, constructed models for mapping an indicator to the needed RV correction, or separated out shape- and shift-driven RV components. Since no ground truth is known when using real data, relative method performance is assessed using the total and nightly scatter of returned RVs and agreement between the results of different methods. Nearly all submitted methods return a lower RV RMS than classic linear decorrelation, but no method is yet consistently reducing the RV RMS to sub-meter-per-second levels. There is a concerning lack of agreement between the RVs returned by different methods. These results suggest that continued progress in this field necessitates increased interpretability of methods, high-cadence data to capture stellar signals at all timescales, and continued tests like the ESSP using consistent data sets with more advanced metrics for method performance. Future comparisons should make use of various well-characterized data sets -- such as solar data or data with known injected planetary and/or stellar signals -- to better understand method performance and whether planetary signals are preserved., Comment: 33 pages (+12 pages of Appendix), 10 figures, 8 tables, accepted for publication in AJ

The radial velocity (RV) detection of exoplanets is challenged by stellar spectroscopic variability that can mimic the presence of planets and by instrumental instability that can further obscure the detection. Both stellar and instrumental changes can distort the spectral line profiles and be misinterpreted as apparent RV shifts. We present an improved FourIEr \textit{phase} SpecTrum Analysis (FIESTA a.k.a. $\mathit{\phi}$ESTA) to disentangle apparent velocity shifts due to a line deformation from a true Doppler shift. $\mathit{\phi}$ESTA projects stellar spectrum's cross correlation function (CCF) onto a truncated set of Fourier basis functions. Using the amplitude and phase information from each Fourier mode, we can trace the line variability at different CCF width scales to robustly identify and mitigate multiple sources of RV contamination. For example, in our study of the 3 years of HARPS-N solar data, $\mathit{\phi}$ESTA reveals the solar rotational effect, the long-term trend due to solar magnetic cycle, instrumental instability and apparent solar rotation rate changes. Applying a multiple linear regression model on $\mathit{\phi}$ESTA metrics, we reduce the weighted rms noise from 1.89 m/s to 0.98 m/s. In addition, we observe a $\sim$3 days lag in the $\mathit{\phi}$ESTA metrics, similar to the findings from previous studies on BIS and FWHM.

Efforts with extreme-precision radial velocity (EPRV) instruments to detect small-amplitude planets are largely limited, on many timescales, by the effects of stellar variability and instrumental systematics. One avenue for investigating these effects is the use of small solar telescopes which direct disk-integrated sunlight to these EPRV instruments, observing the Sun at high cadence over months or years. We have designed and built a solar feed system to carry out "Sun-as-a-star" observations with NEID, a very high precision Doppler spectrometer recently commissioned at the WIYN 3.5m Telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory. The NEID solar feed has been taking observations nearly every day since December 2020; data is publicly available at the NASA Exoplanet Science Institute (NExScI) NEID Solar Archive: \url{https://neid.ipac.caltech.edu/search_solar.php}. In this paper, we present the design of the NEID solar feed and explanations behind our design intent. We also present early radial velocity (RV) results which demonstrate NEID's RV stability on the Sun over 4 months of commissioning: 0.66~m/s RMS under good sky conditions and improving to 0.41~m/s RMS under best conditions., Comment: Accepted to AJ

We validate the planetary nature of an ultra-short period planet orbiting the M dwarf KOI-4777. We use a combination of space-based photometry from Kepler, high-precision, near-infrared Doppler spectroscopy from the Habitable-zone Planet Finder, and adaptive optics imaging to characterize this system. KOI-4777.01 is a Mars-sized exoplanet ($\mathrm{R}_{p}=0.51 \pm 0.03R_{\oplus}$) orbiting the host star every 0.412-days ($\sim9.9$-hours). This is the smallest validated ultra-short period planet known and we see no evidence for additional massive companions using our HPF RVs. We constrain the upper $3\sigma$ mass to $M_{p}<0.34~\mathrm{M_\oplus}$ by assuming the planet is less dense than iron. Obtaining a mass measurement for KOI-4777.01 is beyond current instrumental capabilities., Comment: 25 pages, 8 figures, accepted for publication in AJ

The warm Neptune GJ 3470b transits a nearby ($d=29$pc) bright slowly rotating M1.5-dwarf star. Using spectroscopic observations during two transits with the newly commissioned NEID spectrometer on the WIYN 3.5m Telescope at Kitt Peak Observatory, we model the classical Rossiter-Mclaughlin effect yielding a sky-projected obliquity of $\lambda=98_{-12}^{+15\:\circ}$ and a $v \sin i = 0.85_{-0.33}^{+0.27}$km/s. Leveraging information about the rotation period and size of the host star, our analysis yields a true obliquity of $\psi=95_{-8}^{+9\:\circ}$, revealing that GJ 3470b is on a polar orbit. Using radial velocities from HIRES, HARPS and the Habitable-zone Planet Finder, we show that the data are compatible with a long-term RV slope of $\dot{\gamma} = -0.0022 \pm 0.0011$m/s/day over a baseline of 12.9 years. If the RV slope is due to acceleration from another companion in the system, we show that such a companion is capable of explaining the polar and mildly eccentric orbit of GJ 3470b using two different secular excitation models. The existence of an outer companion can be further constrained with additional RV observations, Gaia astrometry, and future high-contrast imaging observations. Lastly, we show that tidal heating from GJ 3470b's mild eccentricity has most likely inflated the radius of GJ 3470b by a factor of $\sim$1.5-1.7, which could help account for its evaporating atmosphere., Comment: 21 pages, 7 figures. Accepted in ApJL

Owing to recent advances in radial-velocity instrumentation and observation techniques, the detection of Earth-mass planets around Sun-like stars may soon be primarily limited by intrinsic stellar variability. Several processes contribute to this variability, including starspots, pulsations, and granulation. Although many previous studies have focused on techniques to mitigate signals from pulsations and other types of magnetic activity, granulation noise has to date only been partially addressed by empirically-motivated observation strategies and magnetohydrodynamic simulations. To address this deficit, we present the GRanulation And Spectrum Simulator ($\texttt{GRASS}$), a new tool designed to create time-series synthetic spectra with granulation-driven variability from spatially- and temporally-resolved observations of solar absorption lines. In this work, we present $\texttt{GRASS}$, detail its methodology, and validate its model against disk-integrated solar observations. As a first-of-its-kind empirical model for spectral variability due to granulation in a star with perfectly known center-of-mass radial-velocity behavior, $\texttt{GRASS}$ is an important tool for testing new methods of disentangling granular line-shape changes from true Doppler shifts., Comment: 18 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journal

Precise mass measurements of exoplanets discovered by the direct imaging or transit technique are required to determine planet bulk properties and potential habitability. Furthermore, it is generally acknowledged that, for the foreseeable future, the Extreme Precision Radial Velocity (EPRV) measurement technique is the only method potentially capable of detecting and measuring the masses and orbits of habitable-zone Earths orbiting nearby F, G, and K spectral-type stars from the ground. In particular, EPRV measurements with a precision of better than approximately 10 cm/s (with a few cm/s stability over many years) are required. Unfortunately, for nearly a decade, PRV instruments and surveys have been unable to routinely reach RV accuracies of less than roughly 1 m/s. Making EPRV science and technology development a critical component of both NASA and NSF program plans is crucial for reaching the goal of detecting potentially habitable Earthlike planets and supporting potential future exoplanet direct imaging missions such as the Habitable Exoplanet Observatory (HabEx) or the Large Ultraviolet Optical Infrared Surveyor (LUVOIR). In recognition of these facts, the 2018 National Academy of Sciences (NAS) Exoplanet Science Strategy (ESS) report recommended the development of EPRV measurements as a critical step toward the detection and characterization of habitable, Earth-analog planets. In response to the NAS-ESS recommendation, NASA and NSF commissioned the EPRV Working Group to recommend a ground-based program architecture and implementation plan to achieve the goal intended by the NAS. This report documents the activities, findings, and recommendations of the EPRV Working Group., Comment: Full report: 103 pages. Executive summary: 7 pages. More information about the NASA-NSF Exoplanet Observational Research (NN-EXPLORE) program, including the NASA-NSF Extreme Precision Radial Velocity Initiative, can be found here: https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/exep/NNExplore/

Early analyses of exoplanet statistics from the Kepler Mission revealed that a model population of multiple-planet systems with low mutual inclinations (${\sim1^{\circ}-2^{\circ}}$) adequately describes the multiple-transiting systems but underpredicts the number of single-transiting systems. This so-called "Kepler dichotomy" signals the existence of a sub-population of multi-planet systems possessing larger mutual inclinations. However, the details of these inclinations remain uncertain. In this work, we derive constraints on the intrinsic mutual inclination distribution by statistically exploiting Transit Duration Variations (TDVs) of the Kepler planet population. When planetary orbits are mutually inclined, planet-planet interactions cause orbital precession, which can lead to detectable long-term changes in transit durations. These TDV signals are inclination-sensitive and have been detected for roughly two dozen Kepler planets. We compare the properties of the Kepler observed TDV detections to TDV detections of simulated planetary systems constructed from two population models with differing assumptions about the mutual inclination distribution. We find strong evidence for a continuous distribution of relatively low mutual inclinations that is well-characterized by a power law relationship between the median mutual inclination ($\tilde{\mu}_{i,n}$) and the intrinsic multiplicity ($n$): $\tilde{\mu}_{i,n} = \tilde{\mu}_{i,5}(n/5)^{\alpha}$, where $\tilde{\mu}_{i,5} = 1.10^{+0.15}_{-0.11}$ and $\alpha = -1.73^{+0.09}_{-0.08}$. These results suggest that late-stage planet assembly and possibly stellar oblateness are the dominant physical origins for the excitation of Kepler planet mutual inclinations., Comment: Accepted to AJ, 19 pages, 10 figures (excluding appendix)

Population studies of Kepler's multi-planet systems have revealed a surprising degree of structure in their underlying architectures. Information from a detected transiting planet can be combined with a population model to make predictions about the presence and properties of additional planets in the system. Using a statistical model for the distribution of planetary systems (He et al. 2020; arXiv:2007.14473), we compute the conditional occurrence of planets as a function of the period and radius of Kepler-detectable planets. About half ($0.52 \pm 0.03$) of the time, the detected planet is not the planet with the largest semi-amplitude $K$ in the system, so efforts to measure the mass of the transiting planet with radial velocity (RV) follow-up will have to contend with additional planetary signals in the data. We simulate RV observations to show that assuming a single-planet model to measure the $K$ of the transiting planet often requires significantly more observations than in the ideal case with no additional planets, due to the systematic errors from unseen planet companions. Our results show that planets around 10-day periods with $K$ close to the single-measurement RV precision ($\sigma_{1,\rm obs}$) typically require $\sim 100$ observations to measure their $K$ to within 20% error. For a next generation RV instrument achieving $\sigma_{1,\rm obs} = 10$ cm/s, about $\sim 200$ ($600$) observations are needed to measure the $K$ of a transiting Venus in a Kepler-like system to better than 20% (10%) error, which is $\sim 2.3$ times as many as what would be necessary for a Venus without any planetary companions., Comment: Accepted to AJ. 28 pages, 13 figures

In the search for planets orbiting distant stars the presence of stellar activity in the atmospheres of observed stars can obscure the radial velocity signal used to detect such planets. Furthermore, this stellar activity contamination is set by the star itself and cannot simply be avoided with better instrumentation. Various stellar activity indicators have been developed that may correlate with this contamination. We introduce a new stellar activity indicator called the Stellar Activity F-statistic for Exoplanet surveys (SAFE) that has higher statistical power (i.e., probability of detecting a true stellar activity signal) than many traditional stellar activity indicators in a simulation study of an active region on a Sun-like star with moderate to high signal-to-noise. Also through simulation, the SAFE is demonstrated to be associated with the projected area on the visible side of the star covered by active regions. We also demonstrate that the SAFE detects statistically significant stellar activity in most of the spectra for HD 22049, a star known to have high stellar variability. Additionally, the SAFE is calculated for recent observations of the three low-variability stars HD 34411, HD 10700, and HD 3651, the latter of which is known to have a planetary companion. As expected, the SAFE for these three only occasionally detects activity. Furthermore, initial exploration appears to indicate that the SAFE may be useful for disentangling stellar activity signals from planet-induced Doppler shifts., Comment: 20 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journal

The Habitable zone Planet Finder (HPF) is a fiber fed precise radial velocity spectrograph at the 10 m Hobby Eberly Telescope (HET). Due to its fixed altitude design, the HET pupil changes appreciably across a track, leading to significant changes of the fiber far-field illumination. HPF's fiber scrambler is designed to suppress the impact of these illumination changes on the radial velocities -- but the residual impact on the radial velocity measurements has yet to be probed on sky. We use GJ 411, a bright early type (M2) M dwarf to probe the effects of far-field input trends due to these pupil variations on HPF radial velocities (RVs). These large changes ($\sim$ 2x) in pupil area and centroid present a harsh test of HPF's far-field scrambling. Our results show that the RVs are effectively decoupled from these extreme far-field input changes due to pupil centroid offsets, attesting to the effectiveness of the scrambler design. This experiment allows us to test the impact of these changes with large pupil variation on-sky, something we would not easily be able to do at a conventional optical telescope. While the pupil and illumination changes expected at these other telescopes are small, scaling from our results enables us to estimate and bound these effects, and show that they are controllable even for the new and next generation of RV instruments in their quest to beat down instrumental noise sources towards the goal of a few cm/s., Comment: 16 pages. Published in The Astrophysical Journal

NEID is a high-resolution optical spectrograph on the WIYN 3.5-m telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory and will soon join the new generation of extreme precision radial velocity instruments in operation around the world. We plan to use the instrument to conduct the NEID Earth Twin Survey (NETS) over the course of the next 5 years, collecting hundreds of observations of some of the nearest and brightest stars in an effort to probe the regime of Earth-mass exoplanets. Even if we take advantage of the extreme instrumental precision conferred by NEID, it will remain difficult to disentangle the weak (~10 cm s$^{-1}$) signals induced by such low-mass, long-period exoplanets from stellar noise for all but the quietest host stars. In this work, we present a set of quantitative selection metrics which we use to identify an initial NETS target list consisting of stars conducive to the detection of exoplanets in the regime of interest. We also outline a set of observing strategies with which we aim to mitigate uncertainty contributions from intrinsic stellar variability and other sources of noise., Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures, 1 table

We identify a set of planetary systems observed by Kepler that merit transit timing variation (TTV) analysis given the orbital periods of transiting planets, the uncertainties for their transit times and the number of transits observed during the Kepler mission. We confirm the planetary nature of 4 KOIs within multicandidate systems. We forward model each of the planetary systems identified to determine which systems are likely to yield mass constraints that may be significantly improved upon with follow-up transit observations. We find projected TTVs diverge by more than 90 minutes after 6000 days in 27 systems, including 22 planets with orbital periods exceeding 25 days. Such targets would benefit the most from additional transit timing data. TTV follow-up could push exoplanet characterization to lower masses, at greater orbital periods and at cooler equilibrium temperatures than is currently possible from the Kepler dataset alone. Combining TTVs and recently revised stellar parameters, we characterize an ensemble of homogeneously selected planets and identify planets in the Kepler field with large enough estimated transmission annuli for atmospheric characterization with JWST., Comment: 70 pages, 33 figures

We present occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZ) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define $\eta_\oplus$ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radius between 0.5 and 1.5 $R_\oplus$ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 K and 6300 K. We find that $\eta_\oplus$ for the conservative HZ is between $0.37^{+0.48}_{-0.21}$ (errors reflect 68\% credible intervals) and $0.60^{+0.90}_{-0.36}$ planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between $0.58^{+0.73}_{-0.33}$ and $0.88^{+1.28}_{-0.51}$ planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates using both a Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with $95\%$ confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is about 6 pc away, and there are about 4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun., Comment: To appear in The Astronomical Journal

The radial velocity method is one of the most successful techniques for the discovery and characterization of exoplanets. Modern spectrographs promise measurement precision of ~0.2-0.5 m/s for an ideal target star. However, the intrinsic variability of stellar spectra can mimic and obscure true planet signals at these levels. Rajpaul et al. (2015) and Jones et al. (2017) proposed applying a physically motivated, multivariate Gaussian process (GP) to jointly model the apparent Doppler shift and multiple indicators of stellar activity as a function of time, so as to separate the planetary signal from various forms of stellar variability. These methods are promising, but performing the necessary calculations can be computationally intensive and algebraically tedious. In this work, we present a flexible and computationally efficient software package, GPLinearOdeMaker.jl, for modeling multivariate time series using a linear combination of univariate GPs and their derivatives. The package allows users to easily and efficiently apply various multivariate GP models and different covariance kernel functions. We demonstrate GPLinearOdeMaker.jl by applying the Jones et al. (2017) model to fit measurements of the apparent Doppler shift and activity indicators derived from simulated active solar spectra time series affected by many evolving star spots. We show how GPLinearOdeMaker.jl makes it easy to explore the effect of different choices for the GP kernel. We find that local kernels could significantly increase the sensitivity and precision of Doppler planet searches relative to the widely used quasi-periodic kernel., Comment: 19 pages, 4 figures, published in ApJ

The angular momentum deficit (AMD) of a planetary system is a measure of its orbital excitation and a predictor of long-term stability. We adopt the AMD-stability criteria to constrain the orbital architectures for exoplanetary systems. Previously, He, Ford, & Ragozzine (2019) (arXiv:1907.07773v2) showed through forward modelling (SysSim) that the observed multiplicity distribution can be well reproduced by two populations consisting of a low and a high mutual inclination component. Here, we show that a broad distribution of mutual inclinations arising from systems at the AMD-stability limit can also match the observed Kepler population. We show that distributing a planetary system's maximum AMD amongst its planets results in a multiplicity-dependent distribution of eccentricities and mutual inclinations. Systems with intrinsically more planets have lower median eccentricities and mutual inclinations, and this trend is well described by power-law functions of the intrinsic planet multiplicity ($n$): $\tilde{\mu}_{e,n} \propto n^{-1.74_{-0.07}^{+0.11}}$ and $\tilde{\mu}_{i,n} \propto n^{-1.73_{-0.08}^{+0.09}}$, where $\tilde{\mu}_{e,n}$ and $\tilde{\mu}_{i,n}$ are the medians of the eccentricity and inclination distributions. We also find that intrinsic single planets have higher eccentricities ($\sigma_{e,1} \sim 0.25$) than multi-planet systems, and that the trends with multiplicity appear in the observed distributions of period-normalized transit duration ratios. We show that the observed preferences for planet size orderings and uniform spacings are more extreme than what can be produced by the detection biases of the Kepler mission alone. Finally, we find that for systems with detected transiting planets between 5 and 10 days, there is another planet with a greater radial velocity signal $\simeq~53\%$ of the time., Comment: Published in AJ; 41 pages, 15 figures, plus supplemental online materials with 8 figures

Using radial-velocity data from the Habitable-zone Planet Finder, we have measured the mass of the Neptune-sized planet K2-25b, as well as the obliquity of its M4.5-dwarf host star in the 600-800MYr Hyades cluster. This is one of the youngest planetary systems for which both of these quantities have been measured, and one of the very few M dwarfs with a measured obliquity. Based on a joint analysis of the radial velocity data, time-series photometry from the K2 mission, and new transit light curves obtained with diffuser-assisted photometry, the planet's radius and mass are $3.44\pm 0.12 \mathrm{R_\oplus}$ and $24.5_{-5.2}^{+5.7} \mathrm{M_\oplus}$. These properties are compatible with a rocky core enshrouded by a thin hydrogen-helium atmosphere (5% by mass). We measure an orbital eccentricity of $e=0.43 \pm 0.05$. The sky-projected stellar obliquity is $\lambda=3 \pm 16^{\circ}$, compatible with spin-orbit alignment, in contrast to other "hot Neptunes" that have been studied around older stars., Comment: Accepted for publication in AJ, 31 pages, 14 figures

We confirm the planetary nature of a warm Jupiter transiting the early M dwarf TOI-1899, using a combination of available TESS photometry; high-precision, near-infrared spectroscopy with the Habitable-zone Planet Finder; and speckle and adaptive optics imaging. The data reveal a transiting companion on an $\sim29$-day orbit with a mass and radius of $0.66\pm0.07\ \mathrm{M_{J}}$ and $1.15_{-0.05}^{+0.04}\ \mathrm{R_{J}}$, respectively. The star TOI-1899 is the lowest-mass star known to host a transiting warm Jupiter, and we discuss the follow-up opportunities afforded by a warm ($\mathrm{T_{eq}}\sim362$ K) gas giant orbiting an M0 star. Our observations reveal that TOI-1899.01 is a puffy warm Jupiter, and we suggest additional transit observations to both refine the orbit and constrain the true dilution observed in TESS., Comment: 24 pages, 5 figures, 3 tables, published in AJ

We confirm the planetary nature of TOI-1728b using a combination of ground-based photometry, near-infrared Doppler velocimetry and spectroscopy with the Habitable-zone Planet Finder.TOI-1728 is an old, inactive M0 star with \teff{} $= 3980^{+31}_{-32}$ K, which hosts a transiting super Neptune at an orbital period of $\sim$ 3.49 days. Joint fitting of the radial velocities and TESS and ground-based transits yields a planetary radius of $5.05_{-0.17}^{+0.16}$ R$_{\oplus}$, mass $26.78_{-5.13}^{+5.43}$ M$_{\oplus}$ and eccentricity $0.057_{-0.039}^{+0.054}$. We estimate the stellar properties, and perform a search for He 10830 \AA absorption during the transit of this planet and claim a null detection with an upper limit of 1.1$\%$ with 90\% confidence. A deeper level of He 10830 \AA ~ absorption has been detected in the planet atmosphere of GJ 3470b, a comparable gaseous planet. TOI-1728b is the largest super Neptune -- the intermediate subclass of planets between Neptune and the more massive gas-giant planets -- discovered around an M dwarf. With its relatively large mass and radius, TOI-1728 represents a valuable datapoint in the M-dwarf exoplanet mass-radius diagram, bridging the gap between the lighter Neptune-sized planets and the heavier Jovian planets known to orbit M-dwarfs. With a low bulk density of $1.14_{-0.24}^{+0.26}$ g/cm$^3$, and orbiting a bright host star (J $\sim 9.6$, V $\sim 12.4$), TOI-1728b is also a promising candidate for transmission spectroscopy both from the ground and from space, which can be used to constrain planet formation and evolutionary models., Comment: 21 pages, 12 figures, 4 tables: Accepted for publication

Young, rapidly-rotating M dwarfs exhibit prominent starspots, which create quasiperiodic signals in their photometric and Doppler spectroscopic measurements. The periodic Doppler signals can mimic radial velocity (RV) changes expected from orbiting exoplanets. Exoplanets can be distinguished from activity-induced false positives by the chromaticity and long-term incoherence of starspot signals, but these qualities are poorly constrained for fully-convective M stars. Coherent photometric starspot signals on M dwarfs may persist for hundreds of rotations, and the wavelength dependence of starspot RV signals may not be consistent between stars due to differences in their magnetic fields and active regions. We obtained precise multi-wavelength RVs of four rapidly-rotating M dwarfs (AD Leo, G 227-22, GJ 1245B, GJ 3959) using the near-infrared (NIR) Habitable-zone Planet Finder, and the optical Keck/HIRES spectrometer. Our RVs are complemented by photometry from Kepler, TESS, and the Las Cumbres Observatory (LCO) network of telescopes. We found that all four stars exhibit large spot-induced Doppler signals at their rotation periods, and investigated the longevity and optical-to-NIR chromaticity for these signals. The phase curves remain coherent much longer than is typical for Sunlike stars. Their chromaticity varies, and one star (GJ 3959) exhibits optical and NIR RV modulation consistent in both phase and amplitude. In general, though, we find that the NIR amplitudes are lower than their optical counterparts. We conclude that starspot modulation for rapidly-rotating M stars frequently remains coherent for hundreds of stellar rotations, and gives rise to Doppler signals that, due to this coherence, may be mistaken for exoplanets., Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal

Recent and upcoming stabilized spectrographs are pushing the frontier for Doppler spectroscopy to detect and characterize low-mass planets. Specifications for these instruments are so impressive that intrinsic stellar variability is expected to limit their Doppler precision for most target stars (Fischer et al. 2016). To realize their full potential, astronomers must develop new strategies for distinguishing true Doppler shifts from intrinsic stellar variability. Stellar variability due to star spots, faculae and other rotationally-linked variability are particularly concerning, as the stellar rotation period is often included in the range of potential planet orbital periods. To robustly detect and accurately characterize low-mass planets via Doppler planet surveys, the exoplanet community must develop statistical models capable of jointly modeling planetary perturbations and intrinsic stellar variability. Towards this effort, this note presents simulations of extremely high resolution, solar-like spectra created with SOAP 2.0 (arXiv:1409.3594) that includes multiple evolving star spots. We anticipate this data set will contribute to future studies developing, testing, and comparing statistical methods for measuring physical radial velocities amid contamination by stellar variability., Comment: 3 pages, 1 figure, published in RNAAS

The Kepler mission observed thousands of transiting exoplanet candidates around hundreds of thousands of FGK dwarf stars. He, Ford, & Ragozzine (2019) (arXiv:1907.07773) applied forward modeling to infer the distribution of intrinsic architectures of planetary systems, developed a clustered Poisson point process model for exoplanetary systems (SysSim) to reproduce the marginal distributions of the observed Kepler population, and they showed that orbital periods and planet radii are clustered within a given planetary system. Here, we extend the clustered model to explore correlations between planetary systems and their host star properties. We split the sample of Kepler FGK dwarfs into two halves and model the fraction of stars with planets (between 0.5-10 $R_\oplus$ and 3--300 days), $f_{\rm swpa}$, as a linear function of the Gaia DR2 color. We confirm previous findings that the occurrence of these planetary systems rises significantly toward later type (redder) stars. The fraction of stars with planets increases from $f_{\rm swpa} = 0.32_{-0.11}^{+0.12}$ for F2V dwarfs to $f_{\rm swpa} = 0.96_{-0.19}^{+0.04}$ for mid K-dwarfs. About half ($f_{\rm swpa} = 0.57_{-0.10}^{+0.14}$) of all solar-type (G2V) dwarfs harbor a planetary system between 3 and 300 days. This simple model can closely match the observed multiplicity distributions of both the bluer and redder halves in our sample, suggesting that the architectures of planetary systems around stars of different spectral types may be similar aside from a shift in the overall fraction of planet hosting stars., Comment: Published in AJ; 28 pages, 9 figures, plus supplemental online materials with 5 figures

We present robust planet occurrence rates for Kepler planet candidates around M stars for planet radii $R_p = 0.5-4~\textrm{R}_\oplus$ and orbital periods $P = 0.5-256$ days using the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) technique. This work incorporates the final Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and data products and augments them with updated stellar properties using Gaia DR2 and 2MASS PSC. We apply a set of selection criteria to select a sample of 1,746 Kepler M dwarf targets that host 89 associated planet candidates. These early M dwarfs and late K dwarfs were selected from cross-referenced targets using several photometric quality flags from Gaia DR2 and color-magnitude cuts using 2MASS magnitudes. We estimate a habitable zone occurrence rate of $f_{\textrm{M,HZ}} = 0.33^{+0.10}_{-0.12}$ for planets with $0.75-1.5$ R$_\oplus$ size. We caution that occurrence rate estimates for Kepler M stars are sensitive to the choice of prior due to the small sample of target stars and planet candidates. For example, we find an occurrence rate of $4.2^{+0.6}_{-0.6}$ or $8.4^{+1.2}_{-1.1}$ planets per M dwarf (integrating over $R_p = 0.5-4~\textrm{R}_\oplus$ and $P = 0.5-256$ days) for our two choices of prior. These occurrence rates are greater than those for FGK dwarf target when compared at the same range of orbital periods, but similar to occurrence rates when computed as a function of equivalent stellar insolation. Combining our result with recent studies of exoplanet architectures indicates that most, and potentially all, early-M dwarfs harbor planetary systems., Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures; submitted to MNRAS

Transiting planets with radii 2-3 $R_\bigoplus$ are much more numerous than larger planets. We propose that this drop-off is so abrupt because at $R$ $\sim$ 3 $R_\bigoplus$, base-of-atmosphere pressure is high enough for the atmosphere to readily dissolve into magma, and this sequestration acts as a strong brake on further growth. The viability of this idea is demonstrated using a simple model. Our results support extensive magma-atmosphere equilibration on sub-Neptunes, with numerous implications for sub-Neptune formation and atmospheric chemistry., Comment: Accepted by Astrophysical Journal Letters

We validate the discovery of a 2 Earth radii sub-Neptune-size planet around the nearby high proper motion M2.5-dwarf G 9-40 (EPIC 212048748), using high-precision near-infrared (NIR) radial velocity (RV) observations with the Habitable-zone Planet Finder (HPF), precision diffuser-assisted ground-based photometry with a custom narrow-band photometric filter, and adaptive optics imaging. At a distance of $d=27.9\mathrm{pc}$, G 9-40b is the second closest transiting planet discovered by K2 to date. The planet's large transit depth ($\sim$3500ppm), combined with the proximity and brightness of the host star at NIR wavelengths (J=10, K=9.2) makes G 9-40b one of the most favorable sub-Neptune-sized planet orbiting an M-dwarf for transmission spectroscopy with JWST, ARIEL, and the upcoming Extremely Large Telescopes. The star is relatively inactive with a rotation period of $\sim$29 days determined from the K2 photometry. To estimate spectroscopic stellar parameters, we describe our implementation of an empirical spectral matching algorithm using the high-resolution NIR HPF spectra. Using this algorithm, we obtain an effective temperature of $T_{\mathrm{eff}}=3404\pm73$K, and metallicity of $\mathrm{[Fe/H]}=-0.08\pm0.13$. Our RVs, when coupled with the orbital parameters derived from the transit photometry, exclude planet masses above $11.7 M_\oplus$ with 99.7% confidence assuming a circular orbit. From its radius, we predict a mass of $M=5.0^{+3.8}_{-1.9} M_\oplus$ and an RV semi-amplitude of $K=4.1^{+3.1}_{-1.6}\mathrm{m\:s^{-1}}$, making its mass measurable with current RV facilities. We urge further RV follow-up observations to precisely measure its mass, to enable precise transmission spectroscopic measurements in the future., Comment: Accepted for publication in AJ, 22 pages, 15 figures

Understanding the dynamics and kinematics of out-flowing atmospheres of hot and warm exoplanets is crucial to understanding the origins and evolutionary history of the exoplanets near the evaporation desert. Recently, ground based measurements of the meta-stable Helium atom's resonant absorption at 10830 \AA~has become a powerful probe of the base environment which is driving the outflow of exoplanet atmospheres. We report evidence for the He I 10830 \AA~in absorption (equivalent width $\sim$ $0.012 \pm 0.002$ \AA) in the exosphere of a warm Neptune orbiting the M-dwarf GJ 3470, during three transits using the Habitable Zone Planet Finder (HPF) near infrared spectrograph. This marks the first reported evidence for He I 10830 \AA\, atmospheric absorption for a planet orbiting an M-dwarf. Our detected absorption is broad and its blueshifted wing extends to -36 km/sec, the largest reported in the literature to date. We modelled the state of Helium atoms in the exosphere of GJ3470b based on assumptions on the UV and X-ray flux of GJ 3470, and found our measurement of flux-weighted column density of meta-stable state Helium $(N_{He^2_3S} = 2.4 \times 10^{10} \mathrm{cm^{-2}})$, derived from our transit observations, to be consistent with model, within its uncertainties. The methodology developed here will be useful to study and constrain the atmospheric outflow models of other exoplanets like GJ 3470b which are near the edge of the evaporation desert., Comment: Accepted in ApJ

This Astro2020 State of the Profession Consideration White Paper highlights the growth of astrostatistics and astroinformatics in astronomy, identifies key issues hampering the maturation of these new subfields, and makes recommendations for structural improvements at different levels that, if acted upon, will make significant positive impacts across astronomy., Comment: 14 pages, 1 figure; submitted to the Decadal Survey on Astronomy and Astrophysics (Astro2020) on 10 July 2019; see https://sites.nationalacademies.org/DEPS/Astro2020/DEPS_192906

To date a dozen transiting "Tatooines" or circumbinary planets (CBPs) have been discovered, by eye, in the data from the Kepler mission; by contrast, thousands of confirmed circumstellar planets orbiting around single stars have been detected using automated algorithms. Automated detection of CBPs is challenging because their transits are strongly aperiodic with irregular profiles. Here, we describe an efficient and automated technique for detecting circumbinary planets that transit their binary hosts in Kepler light curves. Our method accounts for large transit timing and duration variations (TTVs and TDVs), induced by binary reflex motion, in two ways: 1) We directly correct for large-scale TTVs and TDVs in the light curves by using Keplerian models to approximate binary and CBP orbits; and 2) We allow additional aperiodicities on the corrected light curves by employing the Quasi-periodic Automated Transit Search algorithm (QATS). We demonstrate that our method dramatically improves detection significance using simulated data and two previously identified CBP systems, Kepler-35 and Kepler-64., Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures. Accepted to MNRAS

We infer the number of planets-per-star as a function of orbital period and planet size using $Kepler$ archival data products with updated stellar properties from the $Gaia$ Data Release 2. Using hierarchical Bayesian modeling and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, we incorporate planet radius uncertainties into an inhomogeneous Poisson point process model. We demonstrate that this model captures the general features of the outcome of the planet formation and evolution around GK stars, and provides an infrastructure to use the $Kepler$ results to constrain analytic planet distribution models. We report an increased mean and variance in the marginal posterior distributions for the number of planets per $GK$ star when including planet radius measurement uncertainties. We estimate the number of planets-per-$GK$ star between 0.75 and 2.5 $R_{\oplus}$ and 50 to 300 day orbital periods to have a $68\%$ credible interval of $0.49$ to $0.77$ and a posterior mean of $0.63$. This posterior has a smaller mean and a larger variance than the occurrence rate calculated in this work and in Burke et al. (2015) for the same parameter space using the $Q1-Q16$ (previous $Kepler$ planet candidate and stellar catalog). We attribute the smaller mean to many of the instrumental false positives at longer orbital periods being removed from the $DR25$ catalog. We find that the accuracy and precision of our hierarchical Bayesian model posterior distributions are less sensitive to the total number of planets in the sample, and more so on the characteristics of the catalog completeness and reliability and the span of the planet parameter space., Comment: 16 pages, 3 figures, published in the Astrophysical Journal

The 2020s will be the most data-rich decade of astronomy in history. As the scale and complexity of our surveys increase, the problem of scheduling becomes more critical. We must develop high-quality scheduling approaches, implement them as open-source software, and begin linking the typically separate stages of observation and data analysis., Comment: 10 pages; Astro2020 APC White Paper