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Abstract: Over recent decades, our understanding of climate change has accelerated greatly, but unfortunately, observable impacts have increased in tandem. Both mitigation and adaptation have not progressed at the level or scale warranted by our collective knowledge on climate change. More effective approaches to engage people on current and future anthropogenic climate change effects are urgently needed. Here, we show how species whose distributions are shifting in response to climate change, that is, ‘species‐on‐the‐move’, present an opportunity to engage people with climate change by linking to human values, and our deep connections with the places in which we live, in a locally relevant yet globally coherent narrative. Species‐on‐the‐move can impact ecosystem structure and function, food security, human health, livelihoods, culture and even the climate itself through feedback to the climate system, presenting a wide variety of potential pathways for people to understand that climate change affects them personally as individuals. Citizen science focussed on documenting changes in biodiversity is one approach to foster a deeper engagement on climate change. However, other possible avenues, which may offer potential to engage people currently unconnected with nature, include arts, games or collaborations with rural agriculture (e.g. new occurrences of pest species) or fisheries organisations (e.g. shifting stocks) or healthcare providers (e.g. changing distributions of disease vectors). Through the importance we place on the aspects of life impacted by the redistribution of species around us, species‐on‐the‐move offer emotional pathways to connect with people on the complex issue of climate change in profound ways that have the potential to engender interest and action on climate change. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

The nine currently recognized species of moa (Order – Dinornithiformes; Bonaparte 1853) suffered extinction soon after New Zealand was settled by humans.  They were the result of an evolutionary radiation that produced a unique guild of birds – giant, and totally wingless species that evolved in the absence of non-volant mammals.   Recent advances in dating and paleoclimatology, and compilations of data on distributions of the nine species of moa, along with information on the geographic, topographic, climatic and edaphic characteristics of sites from which moa remains have been recovered, enabled us to test whether their evolutionary radiation truly was ‘adaptive’, producing ecologically distinct species.  Randomization, resampling analyses of moa distributions across North and South Islands revealed highly significant geographic and ecological segregation, with different species tending to occupy different islands, regions within islands, or elevations within regions.  Quadratic Discriminant Analyses demonstrated niche segregation at even finer scales, including that based on vegetation-defined habitats and on local climatic, topographic and edaphic conditions.  Moa distributions also appear to have been dynamic over time, shifting in their upper elevational limits as climatic conditions changed and vegetative zones shifted upward during the Holocene Epoch.  Our ongoing studies are building on the results presented here to explore the temporal dynamics of moa distributions, assess differential responses of moa species to natural and anthropogenic drivers, and determine how these forces may have combined to cause the extinction of moa just a few centuries ago.

Children and young people today are growing up in an increasingly urban, technical, virtual and ecologically precarious world, leaving many feel disconnected from nature yet anxious about its degradation at the same time. Two distinct bodies of knowledge – namely youth human-nature relationships and youth eco-anxiety – are concerned with the former and the latter respectively. Through a narrative literature review, we bring these fields together and explore their interaction. We demonstrate that the dominant responses of facilitating nature exposure and encouraging environmental action risk counteracting each other and ultimately fail to address the root cause of children and young people's experiences. We further show that emerging responses in both fields are overcoming these limitations by turning towards a reimagination of humanity's relationship with nature, providing a holistic way forward. We conclude by discussing barriers restricting the expansion of such approaches and opportunities for future research to contribute to dismantling these barriers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The two living species of bison (European and American) are among the few terrestrial megafauna to have survived the late Pleistocene extinctions. Despite the extensive bovid fossil record in Eurasia, the evolutionary history of the European bison (or wisent, Bison bonasus) before the Holocene (

The extinction of the woolly rhinoceros (Coelodonta antiquitatis) at the onset of the Holocene remains an enigma, with conflicting evidence regarding its cause and spatiotemporal dynamics. This partly reflects challenges in determining demographic responses of late Quaternary megafauna to climatic and anthropogenic causal drivers with available genetic and paleontological techniques. Here, we show that elucidating mechanisms of ancient extinctions can benefit from a detailed understanding of fine-scale metapopulation dynamics, operating over many millennia. Using an abundant fossil record, ancient DNA, and high-resolution simulation models, we untangle the ecological mechanisms and causal drivers that are likely to have been integral in the decline and later extinction of the woolly rhinoceros. Our 52,000-y reconstruction of distribution-wide metapopulation dynamics supports a pathway to extinction that began long before the Holocene, when the combination of cooling temperatures and low but sustained hunting by humans trapped woolly rhinoceroses in suboptimal habitats along the southern edge of their range. Modeling indicates that this ecological trap intensified after the end of the last ice age, preventing colonization of newly formed suitable habitats, weakening stabilizing metapopulation processes, triggering the extinction of the woolly rhinoceros in the early Holocene. Our findings suggest that fragmentation and resultant metapopulation dynamics should be explicitly considered in explanations of late Quaternary megafauna extinctions, sending a clarion call to the fragility of the remaining large-bodied grazers restricted to disjunct fragments of poor-quality habitat due to anthropogenic environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean warming and species exploitation have already caused large‐scale reorganization of biological communities across the world. Accurate projections of future biodiversity change require a comprehensive understanding of how entire communities respond to global change. We combined a time‐dynamic integrated food web modeling approach (Ecosim) with previous data from community‐level mesocosm experiments to determine the independent and combined effects of ocean warming, ocean acidification and fisheries exploitation on a well‐managed temperate coastal ecosystem. The mesocosm parameters enabled important physiological and behavioral responses to climate stressors to be projected for trophic levels ranging from primary producers to top predators, including sharks. Through model simulations, we show that under sustainable rates of fisheries exploitation, near‐future warming or ocean acidification in isolation could benefit species biomass at higher trophic levels (e.g., mammals, birds, and demersal finfish) in their current climate ranges, with the exception of small pelagic fishes. However, under warming and acidification combined, biomass increases at higher trophic levels will be lower or absent, while in the longer term reduced productivity of prey species is unlikely to support the increased biomass at the top of the food web. We also show that increases in exploitation will suppress any positive effects of human‐driven climate change, causing individual species biomass to decrease at higher trophic levels. Nevertheless, total future potential biomass of some fisheries species in temperate areas might remain high, particularly under acidification, because unharvested opportunistic species will likely benefit from decreased competition and show an increase in biomass. Ecological indicators of species composition such as the Shannon diversity index decline under all climate change scenarios, suggesting a trade‐off between biomass gain and functional diversity. By coupling parameters from multilevel mesocosm food web experiments with dynamic food web models, we were able to simulate the generative mechanisms that drive complex responses of temperate marine ecosystems to global change. This approach, which blends theory with experimental data, provides new prospects for forecasting climate‐driven biodiversity change and its effects on ecosystem processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Avoiding the undesirable impacts of invasive species requires robustly evaluating the effects of alternative management scenarios. Such evaluations depend on reliable spatio‐temporal projections of changes in the distribution and abundance of the invasive species under different scenarios. However, commonly used modelling approaches are constrained for this purpose because they do not incorporate demographic processes and are seldom validated.We develop a spatially and temporally explicit grid‐based population model for invasive fallow deer Dama dama in Tasmania, Australia, validated against observed distribution and abundance 'targets' using a pattern‐oriented approach. We use this validated model to project the future invasion patterns of deer, including encroachment into areas of high conservation value, under eight harvest and habitat suitability scenarios.Projected population sizes of deer differ greatly depending on harvest and habitat suitability scenarios. Without harvest, the population grows sixfold, from about 80,000 deer in 2019 to over 500,000 by 2100. In contrast, the population stabilises at 32,000–41,000 deer with 25% annual harvest. Abundance in the environmentally sensitive Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA), a region of high conservation value, increases in all scenarios. We identify likely areas in the expanding range of deer where targeted removal should be most effective at minimising deer numbers in the TWWHA.Synthesis and applications: Using a pattern‐oriented model validated with spatio‐temporal data, we show how the future distribution and abundance of invasive fallow deer in Tasmania can be substantially reduced by targeted increases in harvest and prioritising areas for removal around high conservation value regions. Our approach can be used to project likely effects of management interventions on future distributions and abundances for a range of invasive taxa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]