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Demand for perishable food is sensitive to product prices and is affected by the prices of similar or alternative products. While brand loyalty influences the demand for products, determining a reasonable price requires a precise pricing strategy. In this paper, a pricing model for perishable food is presented in which the brand value of the product and the price of other manufacturers as competitors are considered. To this end, this study first predicts the price of competitors using a combination of optimized Neural Networks and presents an optimized model using a Genetic Algorithm. This algorithm combines a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and a Genetic Algorithm (GA). The proposed model is then used to merge with a game-theory model for the pricing of perishable foods. In this game-theory model, pricing approaches are developed based on identified prices of competitors. In the coordination contract game-theory model, Multi Retailer- one Supplier and Price-sensitive demand of Perishable product are developed with and without quantity discount contract. Obtained results indicate that independent procurement provides retailers with higher profit, while lower profit will be presented when coordination is not considered. Also, with coordination, the ordering cycle increases, and the ordering frequency decrease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bond line thickness (BLT) is an essential parameter of thermal conductive composite gels as the thermal interface material (TIM). Extensive research has been performed on designing next-generation TIMs with high thermal conductivity; however, it remains elusive how to link laboratory measurements and the theoretically predicted BLT. Here, we propose a new model to estimate BLT based on a rheological property, in which the TIM is assumed to be a simple power law fluid. To avoid the unrealistic situation of the BLT tending to zero, we introduce a decaying exponential function to describe the influence from fillers during the lid attach process and rebuild the force balance equation. Compared with previously reported models, the theoretical prediction BLT based on the proposed model is in good agreement with the experimental data. Our model has a guiding significance in predicting the BLT, which may help to optimize the thermal performance of TIMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The biochemical activity inside a cell has recently been suggested to act as a source of hydrodynamic fluctuations that can speed up or slow down enzyme catalysis [Tripathi et al., Commun. Phys. 5, 101 (2022).] The idea has been tested against and largely corroborated by simulations of activated barrier crossing in a simple fluid in the presence of thermal and athermal noise. The present paper attempts a wholly analytic solution to the same noise-driven barrier crossing problem but generalizes it to include viscoelastic memory effects of the kind likely to be present in cellular interiors. A calculation of the model's barrier crossing rate, using Kramers' flux-over-population formalism, reveals that in relation to the case where athermal noise is absent, athermal noise always accelerates barrier crossing, though the extent of enhancement depends on the duration τ0 over which the noise acts. More importantly, there exists a critical τ0—determined by the properties of the medium—at which Kramers' theory breaks down and, on approach to which, the rate grows significantly. The possibility of such a giant enhancement is potentially open to experimental validation using optically trapped nanoparticles in viscoelastic media that are acted on by externally imposed colored noise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hybrid manufacturing systems utilising raw materials and returned end-of-life products for production are studied. The systems are failure-prone and subject to inventory, market demand and return uncertainties. Thanks to growing environmental and sustainability concerns, the manufacturing sector is currently experiencing a significant growth in the popularity of reverse logistics. However, the practical implementation of production control in such systems is challenging due to return flow uncertainty and variability. To address this challenge, an estimation-based control using the Kalman filter is proposed in this research. The demand and return models employed contain random and deterministic components, with the latter being time-invariant for demand and uncertain with seasonal variations for return. The processing steps used include the estimation of inventory levels and demand and return components, return forecasting allowing cost computation over a long horizon, and the determination of the production and disposal policies adapting to market variations and uncertainties. We classify the systems according to relationships between their production capacity, demand and return ranges. We then present an extensive numerical study of optimal policies for various system classes and show that adaptive policies outperform the conventional ones, thus proving the effectiveness of the proposed production control approach for complex industrially oriented systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conflicting predictions of ironic process theory and the implicit overcompensation hypothesis have been presented as a framework to explain the characteristics of errors that occur when a certain behavior is prohibited. The former predicts that instructions prohibiting a particular behavior will increase the likelihood of an outcome that should be avoided (ironic error), whereas the latter predicts that the likelihood of an outcome opposite of that to be avoided (overcompensation error) will increase. We examined how these errors, which negatively affect performance, are influenced by pressure and perceived weakness. Participants performed a tennis-stroke task, aiming to hit a ball toward a target zone while avoiding a discouraged zone. The results indicate that pressure decreases the ironic errors but increases the overcompensation errors that occur when a particular behavior is discouraged, while an increase in perceived weakness induces random errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pick-Up Points (PUPs) represent an alternative delivery option for online purchases. Parcels are delivered at a reduced cost to PUPs and wait until being picked up by customers or returned to the original warehouse if their sojourn time is over. When the chosen PUP is overloaded, the parcel may be refused and delivered to the next available PUP on the carrier tour. This paper presents and compares forecasting approaches for the load of a PUP to help PUP management companies balance delivery flows and reduce PUP overload. The parcel life-cycle has been taken into account in the forecasting process via models of the flow of parcel orders, the parcel delivery delays, and the pick-up process. Model-driven and data-driven approaches are compared in terms of load-prediction accuracy. For the considered example, the best approach (which makes use of the relationship of the load with the delivery and pick-up processes) is able to predict the load up to 4 days ahead with mean absolute errors ranging from 3.16 parcels (1 day ahead) to 8.51 parcels (4 days ahead) for a PUP with an average load of 45 parcels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Contemporary Accounting Research is the property of Canadian Academic Accounting Association and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Using the recently developed multistate mapping approach to surface hopping (multistate MASH) method combined with SA(3)-CASSCF(12,12)/aug-cc-pVDZ electronic structure calculations, the gas-phase isotropic ultrafast electron diffraction (UED) of cyclobutanone is predicted and analyzed. After excitation into the n-3s Rydberg state (S2), cyclobutanone can relax through two S2/S1 conical intersections, one characterized by compression of the CO bond and the other by dissociation of the α–CC bond. Subsequent transfer into the ground state (S0) is then achieved via two additional S1/S0 conical intersections that lead to three reaction pathways: α ring-opening, ethene/ketene production, and CO liberation. The isotropic gas-phase UED signal is predicted from the multistate MASH simulations, allowing for a direct comparison to the experimental data. This work, which is a contribution to the cyclobutanone prediction challenge, facilitates the identification of the main photoproducts in the UED signal and thereby emphasizes the importance of dynamics simulations for the interpretation of ultrafast experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transformation of production mode leads to the need to strictly ensure the order in-time delivery. The global control ability of manufacturing workshops has become a necessary capability for enterprises. The real-time accurate Order Remaining Completion Time (ORCT) prediction allows managers to master the production schedule fluctuation, which provides criteria for workshop management. Due to the widespread deployment of Internet of Things (IoT) devices in the workshop, the difficulty of systematic processing and analysis of multi-dimensional heterogeneous data has been the main pain point of ORCT prediction. To tackle these problems, a Manufacturing Big Data (MBD)-driven ORCT prediction method based on Salp Swarm Algorithm (SSA) and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) is proposed. An attribute selection algorithm combined with max-relevance and min-redundancy and regularisation is used to mine key data from MBD. An SSA-BiLSTM model is proposed to achieve efficient and accurate ORCT prediction. The prediction model is supported by BiLSTM, and the hyperparameters are optimised by SSA. Finally, a case study about ORCT prediction in the IoT-enabled manufacturing workshop is presented. The result verifies that the proposed ORCT prediction method has obvious advantages over the other three traditional methods in accuracy and efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that a common component governs volatility dynamics across a wide range of traded equity factors. This "common factor volatility" (CFV) exists even among orthogonal factors. CFV occurs in both cash-flow and discount-rate components of factor returns and derives from market responses to fundamental news rather than underlying commonality in news volatility. Incorporating CFV improves factor volatility forecasts relative to models that include only own-factor volatility. CFV allows us to characterize stochastic discount factor (SDF) volatility dynamics in a very general sense and we show that many popular models imply SDFs with time-varying volatility that correlates strongly with CFV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Computer simulation has long been an essential partner of ultrafast experiments, allowing the assignment of microscopic mechanistic detail to low-dimensional spectroscopic data. However, the ability of theory to make a priori predictions of ultrafast experimental results is relatively untested. Herein, as a part of a community challenge, we attempt to predict the signal of an upcoming ultrafast photochemical experiment using state-of-the-art theory in the context of preexisting experimental data. Specifically, we employ ab initio Ehrenfest with collapse to a block mixed quantum–classical simulations to describe the real-time evolution of the electrons and nuclei of cyclobutanone following excitation to the 3s Rydberg state. The gas-phase ultrafast electron diffraction (GUED) signal is simulated for direct comparison to an upcoming experiment at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Laboratory. Following initial ring-opening, dissociation via two distinct channels is observed: the C3 dissociation channel, producing cyclopropane and CO, and the C2 channel, producing CH2CO and C2H4. Direct calculations of the GUED signal indicate how the ring-opened intermediate, the C2 products, and the C3 products can be discriminated in the GUED signal. We also report an a priori analysis of anticipated errors in our predictions: without knowledge of the experimental result, which features of the spectrum do we feel confident we have predicted correctly, and which might we have wrong? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1 In the setting where participants are asked multiple similar possibly subjective multi-choice questions (e.g., Do you like Panda Express? Y/N; Do you like Chick-fil-A? Y/N), a series of peer prediction mechanisms have been designed to incentivize honest reports and some of them achieve dominantly truthfulness: Truth-telling is a dominant strategy and strictly dominates other "non-permutation strategy" with some mild conditions. However, those mechanisms require the participants to perform an infinite number of tasks. When the participants perform a finite number of tasks, these mechanisms only achieve approximated dominant truthfulness. The existence of a dominantly truthful multi-task peer prediction mechanism that only requires a finite number of tasks remains to be an open question that may have a negative result, even with full prior knowledge. This article answers this open question by proposing a family of mechanisms, VMI-Mechanisms, that are dominantly truthful with a finite number of tasks. A special case of this family, DMI-Mechanism, only requires ≥ 2C tasks where C is the number of choices for each question (C=2 for binary-choice questions). The implementation of these mechanisms does not require any prior knowledge (detail-free) and only requires ≥ 2 participants. To the best of our knowledge, any mechanism of the family is the first dominantly truthful peer prediction mechanism that works for a finite number of tasks. The core of these new mechanisms is a new family of information-monotone information measures: volume mutual information (VMI). VMI is based on a simple geometric information measure design method, the volume method. The volume method measures the informativeness of an object by "counting" the number of objects that are less informative than it. In other words, the more objects that the object of interest dominates, the more informative it is considered to be. Finally, in the setting where agents need to invest efforts to obtain their private signals, we show how to select the mechanism to optimally incentivize efforts among a proper set of VMI-Mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The inventory levels of pickup points play an important role for the same-day or next-day pickup and delivery services. The previous inventory optimisation research usually makes an assumption about demand distribution, does not use the real dataset or consider shipping strategies for this problem. In this study, we introduce a new strategy, mixture of anticipatory and emergency shipping, and propose forecasting-optimisation integrated approach to optimise multi-items' inventories in each pickup point based on big data analysis. We explore a real dataset including 23,808,261 records with 54 pickup points and 4018 items. We first cluster the dataset based on the distances between pickup points and the warehouse, then, implement the forecasting-optimisation integrated algorithms to select the more profitable strategy for each group. The result indicates that compared with the original algorithms, our proposed approach can effectively increase the profits, particularly, the novel algorithm, Long Short-Term Memory networks – Quantile Regression, performs better. Additionally, we find that the 100% anticipatory shipping is not necessarily superior to emergency shipment, when the pickup point is farther from the warehouse, the advantage of emergency shipment is more significant. However, the mixture of anticipatory and emergency shipping can contribute to higher profits for online retailers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting for intermittent demand is considered a difficult task and becomes even more challenging in the presence of obsolescence. Traditionally the problem has been dealt with modifications in the conventional parametric methods such as Croston. However, these methods are generally applied at the observed frequency, ignoring any additional information, such as trend that becomes prominent at higher levels of aggregation. We evaluate established Temporal Aggregation (TA) methods: ADIDA, Forecast Combination, and Temporal Hierarchies in the said context. We further employ restricted least-squares estimation and propose two new combination approaches tailored to decreasing demand scenarios. Finally, we test our propositions on both simulated and real datasets. Our empirical findings support the use of variable forecast combination weights to improve TA's performance in intermittent demand items with a risk of obsolescence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Throughput analysis plays an important role in the operations and management of automotive manufacturing. Predicting how the system throughput changes over time helps the plant managers to make timely operational decisions to meet the daily production requirement. In today's automotive production systems, the availability of sensing data reflecting process variables and machine status across the plant floor raises new opportunities for improving the throughput prediction accuracy. However, challenges exist in extracting the most important features from the high-dimensional data and capturing the complicated time-vary interdependency among different assets in the system. To overcome such challenges, in this paper we propose a hierarchical Recurrent Neural Network (RNN)-based framework that is composed of clustering, dimension reduction and feature selection, regression, and prediction pruning/adjustment. In addition to predicting end-of-line throughput, our framework then identifies the associations for low throughput to facilitate downtime prevention and maintenance decision-making. The proposed framework is applied to an automotive production system, and its effectiveness is demonstrated by comparison with conventional methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Contemporary Accounting Research is the property of Canadian Academic Accounting Association and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Heavy alcohol drinking is a major, preventable problem that adversely impacts the physical and mental health of US young adults. Studies seeking drinking risk factors typically focus on young adults who enrolled in 4-year residential college programs (4YCP) even though most high school graduates join the workforce, military, or community colleges. We examined 106 of these understudied young adults (USYA) and 453 4YCPs from the National Consortium on Alcohol and NeuroDevelopment in Adolescence (NCANDA) by longitudinally following their drinking patterns for 8 years from adolescence to young adulthood. All participants were no-to-low drinkers during high school. Whereas 4YCP individuals were more likely to initiate heavy drinking during college years, USYA participants did so later. Using mental health metrics recorded during high school, machine learning forecasted individual-level risk for initiating heavy drinking after leaving high school. The risk factors differed between demographically matched USYA and 4YCP individuals and between sexes. Predictors for USYA drinkers were sexual abuse, physical abuse for girls, and extraversion for boys, whereas 4YCP drinkers were predicted by the ability to recognize facial emotion and, for boys, greater openness. Thus, alcohol prevention programs need to give special consideration to those joining the workforce, military, or community colleges, who make up the majority of this age group.

To maximize the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction potential of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), it is critical to develop EV dynamic charging management strategies. These strategies leverage the temporal variability in emissions associated with generated electricity to align EV charging with periods of low-carbon power generation. This study introduces a deep neural network tool to enable BEV drivers to make charging sessions align with the availability of cleaner energy resources. This study leverages a Long Short-Term Memory network to forecast individual BEV vehicle miles traveled (VMT) up to two days ahead, using a year-long dataset of driving and charging patterns from 66 California-based BEVs. Based on the predicted VMT, the model then estimates the vehicle's energy needs and the necessity of a charging session. This allows drivers to charge theirvehicles strategically, prioritizing low-carbon electricity periods without risking incomplete journeys. This framework empowers drivers to actively contribute to cleaner electricity consumption with minimal disruption to their daily routines. The tool developed in this project outperforms benchmark models such as recurrent neural networks and autoregressive integrated moving averages, demonstrating its predictive capabilities. To enhance the reliability of predictions, confidence intervals are integrated into the model, ensuring that the model does not disrupt drivers' daily routine trips when skipping non-critical charging events. The potential benefits of the tool are demonstrated by applying it to real-world EV data, finding that if drivers follow the tool’s predictive suggestion, they can reduce overall GHG emissions by 41% without changing their driving patterns. This study also found that even charging in regions with higher carbon-intensity electricity than California can achieve Californian emission levels for EV charging in the short term through strategic management of non-critical charging events. This findingreveals new possibilities for further emissions reduction from EV charging, even before the full transition to a carbon-neutral grid. View the NCST Project Webpage

The evaluation of thermoelectric materials relies significantly on the thermoelectric figure of merit, ZT, which serves as a crucial parameter in assessing their properties. The accurate prediction of ZT values can be accomplished by utilizing machine learning models to learn material characteristics. However, factors such as the size of the dataset, model hyperparameters, and data quality can all impact the accuracy of machine learning. In contrast to previous research where high-dimensional features were simply discarded to transform them into low-dimensional ones, deep learning models such as autoencoder can extract more effective information. Therefore, in this article, the combination of autoencoders and the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) is employed to learn the chemical characteristics and ZT values of various materials. The reliability of the model was confirmed by achieving an R2 score of 0.94 during tenfold cross-validation. 130 000 materials were predicted and screened, the temperature dependence of the screened materials was studied in depth, and 13 materials with high ZT values were identified. Four of the 13 most promising candidates identified are existing thermoelectric materials, while nine are ideal candidates for future experimental studies and validation. This work utilizes autoencoders for extensive prediction and screening of promising materials, providing an effective approach for handling high-dimensional material data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasts of demands or prices become increasingly unreliable as the future becomes more distant. It is, therefore, beneficial to show that optimal decisions during an initial time interval are either partially or wholly independent of the forecasted data from some future time onwards. Using a commodity trading model as an example, we obtain conditions that allow us to make optimal buying and selling decisions for a commodity in some initial time interval without knowing its price forecast beyond some future time. Such an initial time interval is called a decision horizon and the time up to which the forecasted data is required to make the optimal decisions during the decision horizon is called a forecast horizon. We use the maximum principle to solve the example and show that the decision and forecast horizons in the problem arise from lower and upper bounds imposed on the on-hand inventory of the commodity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We revisit the predictive ability of dividend changes for firms' future earnings and extend the literature by examining the effect of management forecasting ability. Although prior studies have examined the relationship between dividend changes and future earnings, the empirical evidence is mixed. The belief that dividend changes have implications for future earnings depends on the assumption that managers can accurately assess future earnings prospects. In this regard, we posit that the predictive ability of dividends can vary with managers' forecasting ability. Analyzing a large sample of Japanese dividend-paying firms, we find that dividend changes, particularly dividend increases, are positively associated with increases in future earnings. Consistent with our hypothesis, this positive association is more pronounced for firms with high-forecasting ability managers. Our findings support the signaling theory of dividend changes and indicate that management forecasting ability has a moderating effect on the linkage between firms' dividend changes and future earnings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior studies find a positive relation between analyst forecast revisions and upcoming news, suggesting that analysts' forecast revisions are incomplete with respect to available information. In this study, we use the association between forecast revisions and upcoming news to measure forecast completeness and show that post-forecast-revision drift is higher when forecasts are incomplete. We follow Hui and Yeung's (2013) approach to separate forecast revision news into industry-wide and firm-specific components because they find that drift is primarily associated with the industry component. We find that forecast revisions are less complete for industry-wide news than for firm-specific news. Furthermore, analysts' industry-wide revisions are less complete early in the year and when the underlying news is bad, and we find stronger post-forecast-revision drift in those cases. We also show that analysts who were optimistic in prior periods tend to issue forecasts that are less complete and that generate stronger drift than forecasts by other analysts. Our findings provide an explanation for the drift that contrasts with prior studies that attribute the drift to investors' slow assimilation of the news in forecast revisions. Thus, our study sheds light on analysts' role in conveying firm-specific and industry-wide news to investors and on the implications for post-forecast-revision drift. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the accelerated prediction of the thermal conductivity of materials through end-to-end structure-based approaches employing machine learning methods. Due to the non-availability of high-quality thermal conductivity data, we first performed high-throughput calculations based on first principles and the Boltzmann transport equation for 225 materials, effectively more than doubling the size of the existing dataset. We assessed the performance of state-of-the-art machine learning models for thermal conductivity prediction on this expanded dataset and observed that all these models suffered from overfitting. To address this issue, we introduced a different graph-based neural network model, which demonstrated more consistent and regularized performance across all evaluated datasets. Nevertheless, the best mean absolute percentage error achieved on the test dataset remained in the range of 50–60%. This suggests that while these models are valuable for expediting material screening, their current accuracy is still limited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The majority of warehouse expenses is driven by labour cost. Therefore, efficient management of labour resources is required. To do so, workforce planning is used to match the workforce capacity with the incoming workload. While doing so, it is often wrongly assumed that each worker has the same and constant capacity or performance. Addressing this, we build a model to predict the employee-based productivity of newly hired warehouse personnel that will support workforce planning by incorporating multiple data sources. To this end,wedevelop a framework to identify relevant variables in four categories: warehouse, operator, shift and product. We demonstrate that Extreme Gradient Boosting, using these variables may reduce the root mean squared error of the prediction by more than 50%. A comprehensive scenario analysis shows that improving productivity predictions translates into substantial cost savings. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis identifies which variable categories should be favoured in the data collection process to achieve the best prediction results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of granular avalanches in rotating drums is not only essential to understanding various complex behaviors of interest in granular media from a scientific perspective; it also has valuable applications in regard to industrial processes and geological catastrophes. Despite decades of research studies on avalanches, a proper understanding of their dynamic properties still remains a great challenge to scientists due to a lack of state-of-the-art techniques. In this study, we accurately predict the avalanche dynamic features of three-dimensional granular materials in rotating drums, by using graph neural networks on the basis of their initial static microstructures alone. We find that our method is robust to changes in various model parameters, such as the interaction potential, size polydispersity, and noise in particle coordinates. In addition, with the grain-scale velocities obtained either from our network or from numerical simulations, we find an approximately equal and strong correlation between the global velocity and global velocity fluctuation in our 3D granular avalanche systems, which further demonstrates the predictive power of our trained graph neural networks to uncover the fundamental physics of granular avalanches. We expect our method to provide more insight into the avalanche dynamics of granular materials and other amorphous systems in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Contemporary Accounting Research is the property of Canadian Academic Accounting Association and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

BackgroundSocial media can influence alcohol initiation behaviors such as sipping, which can lead to future adverse alcohol-related outcomes. Few studies have examined the role of problematic social media use, characterized by addiction, mood modification, tolerance, withdrawal, conflict, and relapse, especially in early adolescence.ObjectiveTo examine the prospective association between social media use and sipping alcohol in a nationwide sample of early adolescents, and the extent to which problematic social media use mediates the association.MethodsWe analyzed prospective data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study (N = 7514; ages 9-10 years at baseline; 2016-2018) to estimate associations between social media time (Year 1) and alcohol sipping (Year 3) using modified Poisson regression, adjusting for confounders and testing problematic social media use (Year 2) as a mediator.ResultsSocial media time (Year 1) was prospectively associated with 1.31 (95% confidence interval 1.20-1.43) times higher risk of new-onset sipping (Year 3). The association between social media time and new-onset alcohol sipping was partially mediated by problematic social media use at Year 2 (25.0% reduction in the association between the former two factors after adding problematic social media use, p = 0.002).ConclusionsTime spent on social media was associated with a higher risk of alcohol sipping in a diverse national sample of early adolescents, and the association was partially mediated by problematic social media use. Media literacy education and family media use plans could advise early adolescents about exposure to alcohol content on social media and warning signs for problematic use.

Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years from 2004 to 2022. Geographical location, history of mass drug administration treatment, and previously measured prevalence data were included in these models as key predictors. The best-performing models were included in an ensemble, using weights derived from their relative likelihood scores. To incorporate the inherent stochasticity of disease transmission and challenges of population-level surveillance, we forecasted probability distributions for the TF prevalence in each geographic district, rather than predicting a single value. Based on our probabilistic forecasts, 1.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43-1.48%) of all districts in trachoma-endemic countries, equivalent to 172 districts, will exceed the 5% TF control threshold in 2030 with the current interventions. Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2030 may require enhanced intervention and/or surveillance of high-risk districts.

Purpose: To evaluate statistical models developed for predicting medal-winning performances for international swimming events and generate updated performance predictions for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. Methods: The performance of 2 statistical models developed for predicting international swimming performances was evaluated. The first model employed linear regression and forecasting to examine performance trends among medal winners, finalists, and semifinalists over an 8-year period. A machine-learning algorithm was used to generate time predictions for each individual event for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. The second model was a Bayesian framework and comprised an autoregressive term (the previous winning time), moving average (past 3 events), and covariates for stroke, gender, distance, and type of event (World Championships vs Olympic Games). To examine the accuracy of the predictions from both models, the mean absolute error was determined between the predicted times for the Budapest 2022 World Championships and the actual results from said championships. Results: The mean absolute error for prediction of swimming performances was 0.80% for the linear-regression machine-learning model and 0.85% for the Bayesian model. The predicted times and actual times from the Budapest 2022 World Championships were highly correlated (r =.99 for both approaches). Conclusions: These models, and associated predictions for swimming events at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games, provide an evidence-based performance framework for coaches, sport-science support staff, and athletes to develop and evaluate training plans, strategies, and tactics, as well as informing resource allocation to athletes, based on their potential for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Efficient resource management methods are essential for spare parts used in the maintenance and repair of equipment. Forecasting plays a critical role in planning, especially under demand uncertainty. Existing works regarding spare parts with intermittent demand focus on the mere forecasting model while integrating the planning and forecasting models are not sufficiently investigated. We examine the interaction between two models to optimise planning and forecasting decisions and prevent sub-optimality. This paper presents two mathematical models, including a planning model that determines stock level, spare part order assignment to suppliers, equipment repair assignment, and the number of intervals over the planning horizon. The second model is the forecasting model by Support Vector Machine (SVM). Considering uncertainty, demand estimation is performed by piecewise linearisation considering the optimal number of intervals in the planning model used in forecasting. An interactive procedure is developed to optimise models. We use an empirical investigation from an oil company providing the spare part supply chain data. The analyses show that demand estimation by piecewise method and integrating the decisions optimises the cost, improves the forecasting accuracy, and planning performance. Moreover, we offer several insights to practitioners that shed light on spare part planning and forecasting decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two hypotheses have been advanced for when motor sequence learning occurs: offline between bouts of practice or online concurrently with practice. A third possibility is that learning occurs both online and offline. A complication for differentiating between those hypotheses is a process known as reactive inhibition, whereby performance worsens over consecutively executed sequences, but dissipates during breaks. We advance a new quantitative modeling framework that incorporates reactive inhibition and in which the three learning accounts can be implemented. Our results show that reactive inhibition plays a far larger role in performance than is appreciated in the literature. Across four groups of participants in which break times and correct sequences per trial were varied, the best overall fits were provided by a hybrid model. The version of the offline model that does not account for reactive inhibition, which is widely assumed in the literature, had the worst fits. We discuss implications for extant hypotheses and directions for future research.

Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) tools are revolutionizing the field of machine learning by significantly reducing the need for deep computer science expertise. Designed to make ML more accessible, they enable users to build high-performing models without extensive technical knowledge. This study delves into these tools in the context of time series analysis, which is essential for forecasting future trends from historical data. We evaluate three prominent AutoML tools—AutoGluon, Auto-Sklearn, and PyCaret—across various metrics, employing diverse datasets that include Bitcoin and COVID-19 data. The results reveal that the performance of each tool is highly dependent on the specific dataset and its ability to manage the complexities of time series data. This thorough investigation not only demonstrates the strengths and limitations of each AutoML tool but also highlights the criticality of dataset-specific considerations in time series analysis. Offering valuable insights for both practitioners and researchers, this study emphasizes the ongoing need for research and development in this specialized area. It aims to serve as a reference for organizations dealing with time series datasets and a guiding framework for future academic research in enhancing the application of AutoML tools for time series forecasting and analysis.

This paper describes a model for developing highly resolved, time-of-day specific electric vehicle charging demand profiles from travel survey data. Since timing of vehicle charging is dependent on electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) availability, four EVSE scenarios are considered: 1) home only, 2) home and workplace only, 3) universal EVSE, and 4) a probabilistic scenario where EVSE availability varies by location. To illustrate the implications of differing demand profiles on power grid operation with high renewable generating capacity, the profiles are in a typical regional economic dispatch model. The results provide a valuable approach for understanding the interactions between vehicle electrification and renewable energy deployment while exploring an updated range of assumptions about EVSE availability and charging behaviors for New York and the six New England states. All scenarios result in increased peak demand and increased generation by non-renewable generating sources. This indicates that incentive mechanisms that influence charging decisions are necessary to attain lower emissions outcomes.View the NCST Project Webpage

Introduction: Big data and improved analytic techniques, such as triple exponential smoothing (TES), allow for prediction of emergency department (ED) volume. We sought to determine 1) which method of TES was most accurate in predicting pre-coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19), during COVID-19, and post-COVID-19 ED volume; 2) how the pandemic would affect TES prediction accuracy; and 3) whether TES would regain its pre-COVID-19 accuracy in the early post-pandemic period.Methods: We studied monthly volumes of four EDs with a combined annual census of approximately 250,000 visits in the two years prior to, during the 25-month COVID-19 pandemic, and the 14 months following. We compared the accuracy of four models of TES forecasting by measuring the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean square errors (MSE) and mean absolute deviation (MAD), comparing actual to predicted monthly volume.Results: In the 23 months prior to COVID-19, the overall average MAPE across four forecasting methods was 3.88% ± 1.88% (range 2.41–6.42% across the four ED sites), rising to 15.21% ± 6.67%during the 25-month COVID-19 period (range 9.97–25.18% across the four sites), and falling to 6.45% ± 3.92% in the 14 months after (range 3.86–12.34% across the four sites). The 12-month Holt-Winter method had the greatest accuracy prior to COVID-19 (3.18% ± 1.65%) and during the pandemic (11.31% ± 4.81%), while the 24-month Holt-Winter offered the best performance following the pandemic (5.91% ± 3.82%). The pediatric ED had an average MAPE more than twice that of the average MAPE of the three adult EDs (6.42% ± 1.54% prior to COVID-19, 25.18% ± 9.42% during the pandemic, and 12.34% ± 0.55% after COVID-19). After the onset of the pandemic, there was no immediate improvement in forecasting model accuracy until two years later; however, these still had not returned to baseline accuracy levels.Conclusion: We were able to identify a TES model that was the most accurate. Most of the models saw an approximate four-fold increase in MAPE after onset of the pandemic. In the months following the most severe waves of COVID-19, we saw improvements in the accuracy of forecasting models, but they were not back to pre-COVID-19 accuracies.