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Social workers are constantly predicting the future. In England and Wales there is a legal duty on them to do so, as the 1989 Children Act requires workers to assess not only whether children "have" suffered significant harm, but also whether they are "likely" to do so. Similarly, in Northern Ireland social workers are required by The Children (Northern Ireland) Order 1995 to do the same. On a more mundane level, social workers are constantly making predictions about whether a parent might use and benefit from a particular service, whether there will be a further incident of domestic violence or even whether a family will be in (or not) for a home visit. Yet predicting the future is hard and doing so with complete accuracy is impossible. Social work is not the only area where prediction is necessary. In the "Good Judgment Project," forecasts made by experts were found, over relatively long timeframes, to be no better than chance. On the other hand, some forecasters were able to outperform not only chance but also highly trained intelligence analysts with access to classified data. Clearly, human judgment is often highly fallible but, in the right conditions, can be incredibly helpful. Might it be possible to improve social work forecasts about the future? This paper considers key issues in theorising prediction in social work, including conceptions of risk, free will and self-determination. It then turns to practical issues, such as the relationship between forecasting and decision-making, and considers some possible research methods and issues associated with them. To illustrate the potential of this approach we describe how we have started to explore the face-validity value of this approach with social workers and how we have measured the accuracy of forecasting in social work.

This paper presents findings from a study undertaken in Wales on the safeguarding of children educated at home. Findings revealed that just under a third of home educators had children with additional learning needs who were removed from school due to what parents reported as negative experiences. These experiences included the suitability of a school system based upon assessment and attainment for children with additional learning needs and a failure to provide adequate support. The decision to home educate was not taken lightly, with parents persevering in attempts to make school work for their children. Similar issues are identified in recent media coverage in England and Wales which has suggested that rises in home education may be due to parents "off-rolling" their children because they feel forced out of schools that are unable or unwilling to promote inclusive practices. Findings showed that it was not school-based education that was rejected intrinsically, but rather the extent to which schools could meet their child's needs. In the advent of the Additional Learning Needs and Education Tribunal (Wales) Act 2018, these findings suggest that a more nuanced understanding of education is required where home education, either full-time or combined with school attendance, may be in the best interests of the child.

Child Sexual Exploitation (CSE) is a relatively new term within policy and practice. Whilst policy responses have shifted from criminalisation to recognising CSE as child abuse, a review of the 2011 Child Sexual Exploitation Guidance commissioned by the Welsh Government found a growing, yet limited, understanding of CSE in professional contexts. In this article, we explore practitioners' perceptions of how they work with young people experiencing, or at risk of, CSE and whether they believe the new Welsh CSE Guidance is effectively implemented in their practice. This small-scale qualitative study utilised small group interviews and semi-structured interviews to explore the perspectives of twelve participants in the initial phase of the guidance release. A thematic analysis of the data demonstrates a lack of professional awareness of the new Welsh CSE guidance, raising questions surrounding implementation efficacy. These findings highlight the complexity of implementation, illustrating a need for manageable caseloads and supportive cultures, which policymakers, senior management and front line managers need to be aware of. Clear and effective implementation strategies that consider these factors, pre- and post-release, are required to improve implementation efficacy in supporting best practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Working Alliance Inventory remains a widely studied measure of quality of therapeutic relationships between the practitioner and client. No prior study has examined the psychometrics and validity of the Working Alliance Inventory-Short (WAI-S) in a sample of families, social workers, and trained observers within child protection services. Surveys were completed by 130 families, social workers concerning 274 cases, and observers following 165 home visits during the first wave of data collected from a randomized controlled trial of child protection services. Confirmatory factor analyses were conducted on three versions of the WAI-S and demonstrated moderate to good model fit. Convergent construct validity was found with other standardized measures. Results support the use of the WAI-S during in child protection services practice and research. Future research into family engagement in child protection social work services should focus on the working relationship.