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Abstract. The early Eocene (56 to 48 million years ago) is inferred to havebeen the most recent time that Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentrationsexceeded 1000 ppm. Global mean temperatures were also substantially warmerthan those of the present day. As such, the study of early Eocene climate provides insightinto how a super-warm Earth system behaves and offers an opportunity toevaluate climate models under conditions of high greenhouse gas forcing. TheDeep Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP) is a systematicmodel–model and model–data intercomparison of three early Paleogene timeslices: latest Paleocene, Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) and earlyEocene climatic optimum (EECO). A previous article outlined the modelexperimental design for climate model simulations. In this article, weoutline the methodologies to be used for the compilation and analysis ofclimate proxy data, primarily proxies for temperature and CO2. Thispaper establishes the protocols for a concerted and coordinated effort tocompile the climate proxy records across a wide geographic range. Theresulting climate “atlas” will be used to constrain and evaluate climatemodels for the three selected time intervals and provide insights into themechanisms that control these warm climate states. We provide version 0.1 ofthis database, in anticipation that this will be expanded in subsequentpublications.

'…there are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.' Donald Rumsfeld 12th February 2002.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Hyperthermals: rapid and extreme global warming in our geological past'.

During the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT; 1,200-800 kya), Earth's orbitally paced ice age cycles intensified, lengthened from ∼40,000 (∼40 ky) to ∼100 ky, and became distinctly asymmetrical. Testing hypotheses that implicate changing atmospheric CO2 levels as a driver of the MPT has proven difficult with available observations. Here, we use orbitally resolved, boron isotope CO2 data to show that the glacial to interglacial CO2 difference increased from ∼43 to ∼75 μatm across the MPT, mainly because of lower glacial CO2 levels. Through carbon cycle modeling, we attribute this decline primarily to the initiation of substantive dust-borne iron fertilization of the Southern Ocean during peak glacial stages. We also observe a twofold steepening of the relationship between sea level and CO2-related climate forcing that is suggestive of a change in the dynamics that govern ice sheet stability, such as that expected from the removal of subglacial regolith or interhemispheric ice sheet phase-locking. We argue that neither ice sheet dynamics nor CO2 change in isolation can explain the MPT. Instead, we infer that the MPT was initiated by a change in ice sheet dynamics and that longer and deeper post-MPT ice ages were sustained by carbon cycle feedbacks related to dust fertilization of the Southern Ocean as a consequence of larger ice sheets.

The Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was a global warming event that occurred about 56 million years ago, and is commonly thought to have been driven primarily by the destabilization of carbon from surface sedimentary reservoirs such as methane hydrates. However, it remains controversial whether such reservoirs were indeed the source of the carbon that drove the warming. Resolving this issue is key to understanding the proximal cause of the warming, and to quantifying the roles of triggers versus feedbacks. Here we present boron isotope data-a proxy for seawater pH-that show that the ocean surface pH was persistently low during the PETM. We combine our pH data with a paired carbon isotope record in an Earth system model in order to reconstruct the unfolding carbon-cycle dynamics during the event. We find strong evidence for a much larger (more than 10,000 petagrams)-and, on average, isotopically heavier-carbon source than considered previously. This leads us to identify volcanism associated with the North Atlantic Igneous Province, rather than carbon from a surface reservoir, as the main driver of the PETM. This finding implies that climate-driven amplification of organic carbon feedbacks probably played only a minor part in driving the event. However, we find that enhanced burial of organic matter seems to have been important in eventually sequestering the released carbon and accelerating the recovery of the Earth system.

Abstract. Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high ( >  800 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post hoc intercomparison of Eocene ( ∼  50  Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the early Eocene and the latest Paleocene (the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM). Together with the CMIP6 pre-industrial control and abrupt 4 ×  CO2 simulations, and additional sensitivity studies, these form the first phase of DeepMIP – the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project, itself a group within the wider Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, astronomical configuration, solar constant, land surface processes, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological data sets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed.

Over the last decade, our understanding of climate sensitivity has improved considerably. The climate system shows variability on many timescales, is subject to non-stationary forcing and it is most likely out of equilibrium with the changes in the radiative forcing. Slow and fast feedbacks complicate the interpretation of geological records as feedback strengths vary over time. In the geological past, the forcing timescales were different than at present, suggesting that the response may have behaved differently. Do these insights constrain the climate sensitivity relevant for the present day? In this paper, we review the progress made in theoretical understanding of climate sensitivity and on the estimation of climate sensitivity from proxy records. Particular focus lies on the background state dependence of feedback processes and on the impact of tipping points on the climate system. We suggest how to further use palaeo data to advance our understanding of the currently ongoing climate change.

Geochemical proxies of sea surface temperature (SST) and seawater pH (pHsw) in scleractinian coral skeletons are valuable tools for reconstructing tropical climate variability. However, most coral skeletal SST and pHsw proxies are univariate methods that are limited in their capacity to circumvent non-climate-related variability. Here we present a novel multivariate method for reconstructing SST and pHsw from the geochemistry of coral skeletons. Our Scleractinian Multivariate Isotope and Trace Element (SMITE) method optimizes reconstruction skill by leveraging the covariance across an array of coral elemental and isotopic data with SST and pHsw. First, using a synthetic proxy experiment, we find that SMITE SST reconstruction statistics (correlation, accuracy, and precision) are insensitive to noise and variable calibration period lengths relative to Sr/Ca. While SMITE pHsw reconstruction statistics remain relative to δ11B throughout the same synthetic experiment, the magnitude of the long-term trend in pHsw is progressively lost under conditions of moderate-to-high analytical uncertainty. Next, we apply the SMITE method to an array of seven coral-based geochemical variables (B/Ca, δ11B, Li/Ca, Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, U/Ca & Li/Mg) measured from two Bermudan Porites astreoides corals. Despite a <3.5 year calibration period, SMITE SST and pHsw estimates exhibit significantly better accuracy, precision, and correlation with their respective climate targets than the best single- and dual-proxy estimators. Furthermore, SMITE model parameters are highly reproducible between the two coral cores, indicating great potential for fossil applications (when preservation is high). The results shown here indicate that the SMITE method can outperform the most common coral-based SST and pHsw reconstructions methods to date, particularly in datasets with a large variety of geochemical variables. We therefore provide a list of recommendations and procedures for users to begin implementing the SMITE method as well as an open-source software package to facilitate dissemination of the SMITE method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boron isotope ratio of seawater (δ11Bsw) is a parameter which must be known to reconstruct palaeo pH and CO2 from boron isotope measurements of marine carbonates. Beyond a few million years ago, δ11Bsw is likely to have been different to modern. Palaeo δ11Bsw can be estimated by simultaneously constraining the vertical gradients in foraminiferal δ11B (Δδ11B) and pH (ΔpH). A number of subtly different techniques have been used to estimate ΔpH in the past, all broadly based on assumptions about vertical gradients in oxygen, and/or carbon, or other carbonate system constraints. In this work we pull together existing data from previous studies, alongside a constraint on the rate of change of δ11Bsw from modeling. We combine this information in an overarching statistical framework called a Gaussian Process. The Gaussian Process technique allows us to bring together data and constraints on the rate of change in δ11Bsw to generate random plausible evolutions of δ11Bsw. We reconstruct δ11Bsw, and by extension palaeo pH, across the last 65Myr using this novel methodology. Reconstructed δ11Bsw is compared to other seawater isotope ratios, namely Sr87/86 ${}^{87/86}\mathrm{S}\mathrm{r}$, Os187/188 ${}^{187/188}\mathrm{O}\mathrm{s}$, and δ7Li, which we also reconstruct with Gaussian Processes. Our method provides a template for incorporation of future δ11Bsw constraints, and a mechanism for propagation of uncertainty in δ11Bsw into future studies. Plain Language Summary: Boron naturally exists in two forms—11B and 10B. Measuring the ratio of these two forms of boron within marine shells allows us to estimate how alkaline the ocean was in the past, which is related to how much carbon dioxide is in the atmosphere. Before we can do this calculation though, we need to know some other parameters, one of which is the relative abundance of the two forms of boron in the ocean at the time (which we call δ11Bsw). Preexisting studies have estimated δ11Bsw at particular times, and here we combine them to generate a full reconstruction across the last 65 million years, accounting for uncertainties. Our reconstruction is informed by limiting the rate at which δ11Bsw can change, based on model simulations. We provide a set of plausible evolutions of δ11Bsw which can be used in future work when calculating past ocean pH. Key Points: We reconstruct the temporal evolution of seawater isotope ratios of boron, strontium, lithium, and osmium over the last 65 million yearsThe evolution of seawater boron isotope ratio shows similarity to the evolution of strontium, lithium and osmium isotope ratiosRandomly drawn, smooth time series are provided for use in uncertainty propagation in calculation of palaeo pH [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Early Eocene Climate Optimum (EECO, which occurred about 51 to 53 million years ago), was the warmest interval of the past 65 million years, with mean annual surface air temperature over ten degrees Celsius warmer than during the pre-industrial period. Subsequent global cooling in the middle and late Eocene epoch, especially at high latitudes, eventually led to continental ice sheet development in Antarctica in the early Oligocene epoch (about 33.6 million years ago). However, existing estimates place atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels during the Eocene at 500-3,000 parts per million, and in the absence of tighter constraints carbon-climate interactions over this interval remain uncertain. Here we use recent analytical and methodological developments to generate a new high-fidelity record of CO2 concentrations using the boron isotope (δ(11)B) composition of well preserved planktonic foraminifera from the Tanzania Drilling Project, revising previous estimates. Although species-level uncertainties make absolute values difficult to constrain, CO2 concentrations during the EECO were around 1,400 parts per million. The relative decline in CO2 concentration through the Eocene is more robustly constrained at about fifty per cent, with a further decline into the Oligocene. Provided the latitudinal dependency of sea surface temperature change for a given climate forcing in the Eocene was similar to that of the late Quaternary period, this CO2 decline was sufficient to drive the well documented high- and low-latitude cooling that occurred through the Eocene. Once the change in global temperature between the pre-industrial period and the Eocene caused by the action of all known slow feedbacks (apart from those associated with the carbon cycle) is removed, both the EECO and the late Eocene exhibit an equilibrium climate sensitivity relative to the pre-industrial period of 2.1 to 4.6 degrees Celsius per CO2 doubling (66 per cent confidence), which is similar to the canonical range (1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius), indicating that a large fraction of the warmth of the early Eocene greenhouse was driven by increased CO2 concentrations, and that climate sensitivity was relatively constant throughout this period.

Boron isotopes in planktonic foraminifera are a widely used proxy to determine ancient surface seawater pH and by extension atmospheric CO 2 concentration and climate forcing on geological timescales. Yet, to reconstruct absolute values for pH and CO 2 , we require a δ11 B foram-borate to pH calibration and independent determinations of ocean temperature, salinity, a second carbonate parameter, and the boron isotope composition of seawater. Although δ11 B-derived records of atmospheric CO 2 have been shown to perform well against ice-core-based CO 2 reconstructions, these tests have been performed at only a few locations and with limited temporal resolution. Here we present two highly resolved CO 2 records for the late Pleistocene from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Sites 999 and 871. Our δ11 B-derived CO 2 record shows a very good agreement with the ice core CO 2 record with an average offset of 13±46 (2σ) and an RMSE of 26 ppm, with minor short-lived overestimations of CO 2 (of up to ∼50 ppm) occurring during some glacial onsets. We explore potential drivers of this disagreement and conclude that partial dissolution of foraminifera has a minimal effect on the CO 2 offset. We also observe that the general agreement between δ11 B-derived and ice core CO 2 is improved by optimising the δ11 B foram-borate calibration. Despite these minor issues, a strong linear relationship between relative change in climate forcing from CO 2 (from ice core data) and pH change (from δ11 B) exists over the late Pleistocene, confirming that pH change is a robust proxy of climate forcing over relatively short (<1 million year) intervals. Overall, these findings demonstrate that the boron isotope proxy is a reliable indicator of CO 2 beyond the reach of the ice cores and can help improve determinations of climate sensitivity for ancient time intervals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]