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Population fluctuations of small rodents are often synchronized over larger areas (>100 km) than what could be explained by dispersal, suggesting that the synchronizing factor is weather‐related and possibly mediated through changes in food quality. Because bank vole (Myodes glareolus) populations usually peak 1 year after peaks in reproduction of the staple winter food plant bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus), we tested for a possible link between food and spatial synchrony by comparing the synchrony in bank vole population indices and bilberry seed production indices between three study areas across about 20,000 km2 in South Norway during a four decade period (1979–2019). There were subperiods of spatial synchrony and asynchrony between the study areas in the fluctuations of bank vole numbers and bilberry seed production, with the latter part of the study period displaying more pronounced synchrony than the first and middle part. However, with a few marked exceptions, when vole fluctuations were spatially out of phase across study areas so was bilberry seed production. Thus, we conclude that bilberry seed production to a large extent explained the spatiotemporal synchronicity in bank vole population fluctuations. Although bilberry seed production seems to be a causal driver of vole fluctuations, it remains to be seen to what extent the chemical composition of bilberry plants influences vole performance. Finally, certain weather factors may still influence voles directly, or indirectly by triggering bilberry seed production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract For several mammalian species, both population levels and distribution ranges are predicted to change due to changing habitat conditions caused by climate change. A general decrease in the amplitude of small rodent population cycles in northern Europe since the late 1980s has commonly been attributed to a lack of permanent snow cover during winter, or to unfavourable snow conditions. An alternative explanation is that increasing summer temperatures and an extended growing season are unfavourable for herbivorous rodents, by reducing the forage quality. If so, the negative effect should be stronger for the strictly herbivorous Microtus voles than for the herbivorous-granivorous Myodes voles. In a previous study small rodents were snap trapped in 22 regions in Norway during 1971–1979. We found that the trapping index of Microtus voles, but not Myodes voles, in this study was negatively related to summer temperatures. Both in this study and in a snap trapping study from 1994 to 2015, conducted in 13 study areas in Norway, the proportion of Microtus voles among voles captured was negatively related to summer temperatures. Summer temperature was a better predictor than snow depth, but both variables contributed significantly in multiple regression models. We conclude that summer temperature is likely to be a more important factor than snow cover for the population dynamics of herbivorous voles in northern Europe. Highlights • Low vole numbers during the 1990s and early 2000s has been linked to climate change. • Possible drivers are unfavourable snow conditions and high summer temperatures. • Decreased forage quality in warm summers should mainly affect herbivorous species. • Summer temperatures was the best predictor for herbivorous vole number in Norway. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors reflect on knowledge-generating and communication processes involved in the recently developed Norwegian Nature Index, particularly the communication process among experts involved in providing the required biodiversity knowledge. Eliciting a comprehensive overview of biodiversity is a complex process involving choices of approaches and methods in order to reach a common understanding of uncertainties and values as a basis for quantification. Part of the complexity is the establishment of dialogue between experts from research institutions with different research traditions and approaches. The authors discuss how the index was developed through communication processes, challenging involved experts to provide not only biodiversity data for the current situation, but also forecasts of future trends, assessments of uncertainty, and evaluations of the urgency of biodiversity loss and possibility of implementing policy and management measures. The Nature Index framework has potential for informing the biodiversity policy debate by involving stakeholders beyond the science-policy community and enhancing deliberations about biodiversity policy in a wider context of sustainable development. As a policy tool, the Nature Index may develop through a process of practical application, which in turn may have an impact on the selection of narratives, definition of management targets, and technical concepts such as reference states. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The Norwegian Nature Index is a comprehensive effort to ‘make nature visible’ in communications between policymakers and the general public. To ensure that appropriate ‘early warnings’ for biodiversity loss are made available as a basis for precautionary approaches to sustainability and biodiversity policy, different knowledge sources need to be applied, such as the Red List for threatened species and the Nature Index, which gives a comprehensive overview of biodiversity. The article shows how the Nature Index can be supplemented with ‘early warnings’ of biodiversity from involved scientific experts, who were asked to assess the situation in 2020 for the indicators, in view of all available knowledge. They also assessed the uncertainty in their forecasts and their considerations of the need for and difficulty of implementing management measures to maintain biodiversity at the current level. Particularly for the major ecosystems considered to have a poor state, namely forests and open lowlands, experts indicated that urgent action was needed to improve the state of many indicators and that such management action would be possible. The findings indicate potential for eliciting experts' formal and informal knowledge in assessing the need and potential approaches to biodiversity policy. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Reports of fading vole and lemming population cycles and persisting low populations in some parts of the Arctic have raised concerns about the spread of these fundamental changes to tundra food web dynamics. By compiling 24 unique time series of lemming population fluctuations across the circumpolar region, we show that virtually all populations displayed alternating periods of cyclic/non-cyclic fluctuations over the past four decades. Cyclic patterns were detected 55% of the time (n = 649 years pooled across sites) with a median periodicity of 3.7 years, and non-cyclic periods were not more frequent in recent years. Overall, there was an indication for a negative effect of warm spells occurring during the snow onset period of the preceding year on lemming abundance. However, winter duration or early winter climatic conditions did not differ on average between cyclic and non-cyclic periods. Analysis of the time series shows that there is presently no Arctic-wide collapse of lemming cycles, even though cycles have been sporadic at most sites during the last decades. Although non-stationary dynamics appears a common feature of lemming populations also in the past, continued warming in early winter may decrease the frequency of periodic irruptions with negative consequences for tundra ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetlands are important habitats for biodiversity and provide ecosystem services such as climate mitigation and carbon storage. The current wetland mapping techniques in Norway are tedious and costly, and remote sensing provides an opportunity for large-scale mapping and ecosystem accounting. We aimed to implement a deep learning approach to mapping wetlands with Sentinel-2 and LiDAR data over southern Norway. Our U-Net model, implemented through Google Earth Engine and TensorFlow, produced a wetland map with a balanced accuracy rate of 90.9% when validated against an independent ground-truth sample. This represents an improvement upon manually digitized land cover maps in Norway, which achieved accuracy rates of 46.8% (1:50,000 map) and 42.4% (1:5000 map). Using our map, we estimated a total wetland coverage area of 12.7% in southern Norway, which is double the previous benchmark estimates (5.6%). We followed an iterative model training and evaluation approach, which revealed that increasing the quantity and coverage of labeled wetlands greatly increases the model performance. We highlight the potential of satellite-based wetland maps for the ecosystem accounting of changes in wetland extents over time—something that is not feasible with traditional mapping methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the largest threats to biodiversity is land use change and habitat loss. Hollow oaks (Quercus spp. L.) are welldefined patches that are hotspots for biodiversity and red-listed species, but they are often rare and fragmented in the landscape. We investigated the effect of patch size, habitat quality, and isolation on functional groups and red-listed saproxylic beetles in hollow oaks (n=40) in Norway. The groups were defined by host tree association, trophic grouping, and red-listed status. Habitat quality, represented by tree form was most important in explaining species richness for most groups. Patch size, represented by circumference and amount of dead branches, was most important in explaining abundance. Isolation, that is single oaks compared with oaks in groups, had a negative effect on the abundance of beetles feeding both on wood and fungi (xylomycethopagous), as well as on species associated with broadleaved trees (oak semi-specialists), but did not affect species richness. This indicates that at this scale and in this landscape, isolated oaks are as species rich and valuable for conservation as other oaks, although some functional groups may be more vulnerable to isolation than others. The red-listed species only responded to patch size, indicating that oaks with large circumference and many dead branches are especially important for red-listed species and for conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We present an index-based assessment of ecological condition (IBECA). • We test the methodology using a regional case study in central Norway. • We investigate how IBECA aligns with two international frameworks. • We discuss challenges in indicator development and ecological condition assessments. • IBECA provides a transparent, flexible, cost-effective and management relevant tool. Sustainable nature management and ecosystem conservation depends critically on scientifically sound and stakeholder-relevant analytical frameworks for monitoring and assessing ecological condition. Several general frameworks are currently being developed internationally, including the Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBV), and the UN's SEEA EEA Ecosystem Condition Typology (ECT). However, there has so far been few attempts to develop empirical implementations of these general frameworks, or to assess their applicability for environmental decision-making at national or regional scales. In this paper, we aim to fill this implementation gap by demonstrating a practical application of an empirically-based ecological condition assessment framework, the Index-Based Ecological Condition Assessment (IBECA). IBECA defines seven major classes of indicators of ecological condition, representing distinct ecosystem characteristics, and empirically synthesizes indicators for each of these characteristics from various monitoring data. We exemplify and explore the utility and robustness of IBECA using a case study from forest and alpine ecosystems in central Norway, and we investigate how IBECA aligns with the two international frameworks EBV and ECT. In particular, we analyze how the different approaches to categorize indicators into classes affect the assessment of ecological condition, both conceptually and using the case study indicators. We used eleven indicators for each of the two ecosystems and assessed the ecological condition according to IBECA for i) each individual indicator, ii) the seven ecosystem characteristics (indicator classes), and iii) a synthetic ecological condition value for the whole ecosystem. IBECA challenges key concepts of the international frameworks and illustrates practical challenges for national or regional level implementation. We identify three main strengths with the IBECA approach: i) it provides a transparent and management-relevant quantitative approach allowing assessment of spatio-temporal variation in ecological condition across indicators, characteristics and ecosystems, ii) the high degree of flexibility and transparency facilitates updating the ecological condition assessments, also back in time, as improved data and knowledge of indicators emerge, and iii) the quantitative and flexible procedure makes it a cost-effective approach suitable for fast management implementations. More generally, we stress the need for carefully choosing appropriate classification and aggregation approaches in ecological condition assessments, and for transparent and data-driven analytical approaches that can be adjusted as knowledge improves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the original published article, some of the symbols in figure 1A were modified incorrectly during the typesetting and publication process. The correct version of the figure is provided in this correction [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lemmings are a key component of tundra food webs and changes in their dynamics can affect the whole ecosystem. We present a comprehensive overview of lemming monitoring and research activities, and assess recent trends in lemming abundance across the circumpolar Arctic. Since 2000, lemmings have been monitored at 49 sites of which 38 are still active. The sites were not evenly distributed with notably Russia and high Arctic Canada underrepresented. Abundance was monitored at all sites, but methods and levels of precision varied greatly. Other important attributes such as health, genetic diversity and potential drivers of population change, were often not monitored. There was no evidence that lemming populations were decreasing in general, although a negative trend was detected for low arctic populations sympatric with voles. To keep the pace of arctic change, we recommend maintaining long-term programmes while harmonizing methods, improving spatial coverage and integrating an ecosystem perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is growing evidence that biodiversity is important for ecosystem functions. Thus, identification of habitat requirements essential for current species richness and abundance to persist is crucial. Hollow oaks (Quercus spp.) are biodiversity hot spots for deadwood‐dependent insect species, and the main objective of this paper was to test the effect of habitat history and current habitat distribution at various spatial scales on the associated beetle community. We used a gradient spanning 40 km from the coast to inland areas reflecting historical logging intensity (later and lower intensities inland) through 500 years in Southern Norway, to investigate whether the historical variation in oak density is influencing the structure of beetle communities in hollow oaks today. We trapped beetles in 32 hollow oaks along this gradient in forested and seminatural landscapes over two summers. We found higher species richness and total abundance inland consistent with our expectation based on historic logging intensity. Scale‐specific environmental variables also affected the response; beetle abundances were controlled by local conditions, whereas beetle species richness responded to habitat on the landscape scale. This indicates that long time continuity as well as large areas of favorable habitat is necessary to maintain beetle species richness through time in these highly long‐lasting structures. Large old trees are biodiversity hot spots that disappear globally at a faster rate than new ones are being recruited. In the present study, we demonstrate the importance of habitat history, spanning several centuries, and current habitat distribution to understand species richness and abundance of beetles in these long‐lasting habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] We provide a review of monitoring requirements and priorities in supranational biodiversity policies. [•] We quantify overlaps and gaps among policies. [•] In terms of spatial priorities, guidelines are lacking in most policies. [•] We suggest an overarching system for priority setting in biodiversity monitoring. [•] Our suggested system could serve as a first step towards more systematic prioritization of monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Suggestions of collapse in small herbivore cycles since the 1980s have raised concerns about the loss of essential ecosystem functions. Whether such phenomena are general and result from extrinsic environmental changes or from intrinsic process stochasticity is currently unknown. Using a large compilation of time series of vole abundances, we demonstrate consistent cycle amplitude dampening associated with a reduction in winter population growth, although regulatory processes responsible for cyclicity have not been lost. The underlying syndrome of change throughout Europe and grass-eating vole species suggests a common climatic driver. Increasing intervals of low-amplitude small herbivore population fluctuations are expected in the future, and these may have cascading impacts on trophic webs across ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The magnitude and urgency of the biodiversity crisis is widely recognized within scientific and political organizations. However, a lack of integrated measures for biodiversity has greatly constrained the national and international response to the biodiversity crisis. Thus, integrated biodiversity indexes will greatly facilitate information transfer from science toward other areas of human society. The Nature Index framework samples scientific information on biodiversity from a variety of sources, synthesizes this information, and then transmits it in a simplified form to environmental managers, policymakers, and the public. The Nature Index optimizes information use by incorporating expert judgment, monitoring-based estimates, and model-based estimates. The index relies on a network of scientific experts, each of whom is responsible for one or more biodiversity indicators. The resulting set of indicators is supposed to represent the best available knowledge on the state of biodiversity and ecosystems in any given area. The value of each indicator is scaled relative to a reference state, i.e., a predicted value assessed by each expert for a hypothetical undisturbed or sustainably managed ecosystem. Scaled indicator values can be aggregated or disaggregated over different axes representing spatiotemporal dimensions or thematic groups. A range of scaling models can be applied to allow for different ways of interpreting the reference states, e.g., optimal situations or minimum sustainable levels. Statistical testing for differences in space or time can be implemented using Monte-Carlo simulations. This study presents the Nature Index framework and details its implementation in Norway. The results suggest that the framework is a functional, efficient, and pragmatic approach for gathering and synthesizing scientific knowledge on the state of biodiversity in any marine or terrestrial ecosystem and has general applicability worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The population cycles of rodents at northern latitudes have puzzled people for centuries, and their impact is manifest throughout the alpine ecosystem. Climate change is known to be able to drive animal population dynamics between stable and cyclic phases, and has been suggested to cause the recent changes in cyclic dynamics of rodents and their predators. But although predator–rodent interactions are commonly argued to be the cause of the Fennoscandian rodent cycles, the role of the environment in the modulation of such dynamics is often poorly understood in natural systems. Hence, quantitative links between climate-driven processes and rodent dynamics have so far been lacking. Here we show that winter weather and snow conditions, together with density dependence in the net population growth rate, account for the observed population dynamics of the rodent community dominated by lemmings (Lemmus lemmus) in an alpine Norwegian core habitat between 1970 and 1997, and predict the observed absence of rodent peak years after 1994. These local rodent dynamics are coherent with alpine bird dynamics both locally and over all of southern Norway, consistent with the influence of large-scale fluctuations in winter conditions. The relationship between commonly available meteorological data and snow conditions indicates that changes in temperature and humidity, and thus conditions in the subnivean space, seem to markedly affect the dynamics of alpine rodents and their linked groups. The pattern of less regular rodent peaks, and corresponding changes in the overall dynamics of the alpine ecosystem, thus seems likely to prevail over a growing area under projected climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A 1680 km2coastal archipelago area in Norway around Sandøy (62°N 6°E), with a resident population of approximately 750 harbour seals was modelled in a geographic information system (GIS). The proportions of different habitat types available to harbour seals for foraging were estimated. Empirical data on levels of activity and foraging of VHF radio-tracked harbour seals were used to parameterise an energetics simulation model based on activity, body size, and composition. The harbour-seal energy requirement was simulated for a period from 20 June to 31 August. The diet of seals in the area was established from otoliths in faecal samples. The daily food requirements of the 750 harbour seals averaged 3 t based on a diet of mainly Gadidae. A procedure to extrapolate from individual movements and foraging activities of radio-tracked seals to population-level habitat use of foraging seals was adopted. The habitat use of the population was then used to integrate the results of the energetics simulations into the GIS model. The distribution of fishing operations was included and the co-occurrence of fishing operations and seals was analysed. The largest potential for interaction between fisheries and harbour seals was a bottom-set gillnet fishery at 100–200-m depth just off the slope separating the archipelago and adjacent shelf waters. Seals were foraging on fish species targeted by this fishery and the entanglement of seals in this type of fishery was assumed to have an effect both on seal population growth rate and on gillnet fishing efficiency. An estimated total of 32.1 t of fish was removed by seal predation from the areas actually fished by bottom-set nets (117 km2) during the 73 days simulation period. The corresponding figures for the areas fished by Danish seine (140 km2) and shrimp trawl (153 km2) were 20.4 and 40.6 t of fish, respectively. While seal predation of fish probably caused negative effects on gillnet and Danish seine catches the removal of benthic-feeding fishes may cause a positive effect on shrimp catches. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• We present five conceptual approaches for setting indicator reference values. • We present four conceptual approaches for setting indicator limit values. • The choice of approach depends on data availability, coverage and type. • We discuss practical considerations and possible solutions to setting these values. • We aim to contribute to development and practical use of this type of value setting. Effective evidence-based nature conservation and habitat management relies on developing and refining our methodological toolbox for detecting critical ecological changes at an early stage. This requires not only optimizing the use and integration of evidence from available data, but also optimizing methods for dealing with imperfect knowledge and data deficiencies. For policy and management relevance, ecological data are often synthesized into indicators, which are assessed against reference levels and limit values. Here we explore challenges and opportunities in defining ecological condition in relation to a reference condition reflecting intact ecosystems, as well as setting limit values for good ecological condition , linked to critical ecological thresholds in dose–response relationships between pressures and condition variables. These two concepts have been widely studied and implemented in aquatic sciences, but rarely in terrestrial systems. In this paper, we address practical considerations, theoretical challenges and possible solutions using different approaches to determine reference and limit values for good ecological condition in terrestrial ecosystems, based on empirical experiences from a case study in central Norway. We present five approaches for setting indicator reference values for intact ecosystems : absolute biophysical boundaries, reference areas, reference communities, ecosystem dynamics based models, and habitat availability based models. We further present four approaches for identifying indicator limit values for good ecological condition : empirically estimated values, statistical distributions, assumed linear relationships, and expert judgement-based limits. This exercise highlights the versatile and robust nature of ecological condition assessments based on reference and limit values for different management purposes, for situations where knowledge of the underlying relationships is lacking, and for situations limited by data availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]