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Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (IHC) is an aggressive disease with few reliable preoperative biomarkers. This study aims to elucidate if radiomics extracted from preoperative [18F]FDG PET/CT may grant a non-invasive biological characterization of IHC and predict outcome after complete resection of the tumor.All patients preoperatively imaged by [18F]FDG PET/CT who underwent hepatectomy for mass-forming IHC in the period 2010-2019 were retrospectively evaluated. On PET images, manual slice-by-slice segmentation of IHC was performed (Tumor-VOI). A 5-mm margin region was semi-automatically generated around the tumor (Margin-VOI). Textural analysis was performed using the LifeX software. Analyzed outcomes included tumor grading (G3 vs. G1-2), microvascular invasion (MVI), overall survival (OS), and progression-free survival (PFS). The performances of the combined clinical-radiomic models were compared with those of standard clinical models.Overall, 74 patients (40 females, median age 68 years) were included. Considering tumor grading and MVI, the models combining the clinical data and radiomics of the Tumor-VOI had better performances than the clinical ones (AUC = 0.78 vs. 0.72 for grading; 0.87 vs. 0.78 for MVI). The inclusion into the models of radiomics of the Margin-VOI further improved the prediction of grading (AUC = 0.83), but not of MVI. Considering OS and PFS, the models including the preoperative clinical data and radiomics of the Tumor-VOI and Margin-VOI had better performances than the pure clinical ones (C-index = 0.81 vs. 0.76 for OS; 0.81 vs. 0.72 for PFS) and similar to the models including the pathology and postoperative data (C-index = 0.81 for OS; 0.79 for PFS). No model retained the standard SUV measures.The PET-based radiomics of IHC can predict pathology data and allow a reliable preoperative evaluation of prognosis. The radiomics of both the tumoral and peritumoral areas had clinical relevance. The combined clinical-radiomic models outperformed the pure preoperative clinical ones and achieved performances non-inferior to the postoperative models.

Medical imaging represents the primary tool for investigating and monitoring several diseases, including cancer. The advances in quantitative image analysis have developed towards the extraction of biomarkers able to support clinical decisions. To produce robust results, multi-center studies are often set up. However, the imaging information must be denoised from confounding factors – known as batch-effect – like scanner-specific and center-specific influences. Moreover, in non-solid cancers, like lymphomas, effective biomarkers require an imaging-based representation of the disease that accounts for its multi-site spreading over the patient’s body. In this work, we address the dual-factor deconfusion problem and we propose a deconfusion algorithm to harmonize the imaging information of patients affected by Hodgkin Lymphoma in a multi-center setting. We show that the proposed model successfully denoises data from domain-specific variability while it coherently preserves the spatial relationship between imaging descriptions of peer lesions, which is a strong prognostic biomarker for tumor heterogeneity assessment. This harmonization step allows to significantly improve the performance in prognostic models, enabling building exhaustive patient representations and delivering more accurate analyses. This work lays the groundwork for performing large-scale and reproducible analyses on multi-center data that are urgently needed to convey the translation of imaging-based biomarkers into the clinical practice as effective prognostic tools. The code is available on GitHub at thislink

This work explores how the narrative on immigration changes when society is threatened by “real” risks, i.e., during the COVID-19 health crisis. We compared the frequency and engagement of over 348,684 posts published on Facebook between December 2019 and November 2020 by Italian politicians and news media. We identified two waves of “tangible crisis” assuming that in these two periods the risk stemming from COVID-19 was strongly perceived by the Italian population, contrasting our observations to the periods preceding the first wave and between both waves. Our findings suggest that the political discourse and risk narratives on immigration decreased during times of “tangible crises” for right-wing populist parties and news media. This happened at a time when key policies regarding immigration and regularization of migrants were highly discussed by the Italian government, receiving unexpectedly low reactions. This leads us to theorize that anti-immigrant communication decreases during times of “tangible crises.”

Advanced image analysis, including radiomics, has recently acquired recognition as a source of biomarkers, although there are some technical and methodological challenges to face for its application in the clinic. Among others, proper phenotyping of metastatic or systemic disease where multiple lesions coexist is an issue, since each lesion contributes to characterization of the disease. Therefore, the radiomic profile of each lesion should be modeled into a more complex architecture able to reproduce each “unit” (lesion) as a part of the “entire” (patient). This work aimed to characterize intra-tumor heterogeneity underpinning metastatic prostate cancer using an exhaustive innovative approach which consist of a i) feature transformation method to build an agnostic (i.e., irrespective of pre-existence knowledge, experience, and expertise) radiomic profile of lesions extracted from [18F]FMCH PET/CT, ii) qualitative assessment of intra-tumor heterogeneity of patients, iii) quantitative representation of the intra-tumor heterogeneity of patients in terms of the relationship between their lesions’ profiles, to be associated with prognostic factors. We confirmed that metastatic prostate cancer patients encompassed lesions with different radiomic profiles that exhibited intra-tumor radiomic heterogeneity and that the presence of many radiomic profiles within the same patient impacted the outcome.

Advanced imaging and analysis improve prediction of pathology data and outcomes in several tumors, with entropy-based measures being among the most promising biomarkers. However, entropy is often perceived as statistical data lacking clinical significance. We aimed to generate a voxel-by-voxel visual map of local tumor entropy, thus allowing to (1) make entropy explainable and accessible to clinicians; (2) disclose and quantitively characterize any intra-tumoral entropy heterogeneity; (3) evaluate associations between entropy and pathology data. We analyzed the portal phase of preoperative CT of 20 patients undergoing liver surgery for colorectal metastases. A three-dimensional core kernel (5 × 5 × 5 voxels) was created and used to compute the local entropy value for each voxel of the tumor. The map was encoded with a color palette. We performed two analyses: (a) qualitative assessment of tumors’ detectability and pattern of entropy distribution; (b) quantitative analysis of the entropy values distribution. The latter data were compared with standard Hounsfield data as predictors of post-chemotherapy tumor regression grade (TRG). Entropy maps were successfully built for all tumors. Metastases were qualitatively hyper-entropic compared to surrounding parenchyma. In four cases hyper-entropic areas exceeded the tumor margin visible at CT. We identified four “entropic” patterns: homogeneous, inhomogeneous, peripheral rim, and mixed. At quantitative analysis, entropy-derived data (percentiles/mean/median/root mean square) predicted TRG (p p = n.s.). We present a standardized imaging technique to visualize tumor heterogeneity built on a voxel-by-voxel entropy assessment. The association of local entropy with pathology data supports its role as a biomarker. Graphical Abstract

Class imbalance is a common issue in many domain applications of learning algorithms. Oftentimes, in the same domains it is much more relevant to correctly classify and profile minority class observations. This need can be addressed by Feature Selection (FS), that offers several further advantages, s.a. decreasing computational costs, aiding inference and interpretability. However, traditional FS techniques may become sub-optimal in the presence of strongly imbalanced data. To achieve FS advantages in this setting, we propose a filtering FS algorithm ranking feature importance on the basis of the Reconstruction Error of a Deep Sparse AutoEncoders Ensemble (DSAEE). We use each DSAE trained only on majority class to reconstruct both classes. From the analysis of the aggregated Reconstruction Error, we determine the features where the minority class presents a different distribution of values w.r.t. the overrepresented one, thus identifying the most relevant features to discriminate between the two. We empirically demonstrate the efficacy of our algorithm in several experiments on high-dimensional datasets of varying sample size, showcasing its capability to select relevant and generalizable features to profile and classify minority class, outperforming other benchmark FS methods. We also briefly present a real application in radiogenomics, where the methodology was applied successfully.

Time-varying covariates are of great interest in clinical research since they represent dynamic patterns which reflect disease progression. In cancer studies biomarkers values change as functions of time and chemotherapy treatment is modified by delaying a course or reducing the dose intensity, according to patient’s toxicity levels. In this work, a Functional covariate Cox Model (FunCM) to study the association between time-varying processes and a time-to-event outcome is proposed. FunCM first exploits functional data analysis techniques to represent time-varying processes in terms of functional data. Then, information related to the evolution of the functions over time is incorporated into functional regression models for survival data through functional principal component analysis. FunCM is compared to a standard time-varying covariate Cox model, commonly used despite its limiting assumptions that covariate values are constant in time and measured without errors. Data from MRC BO06/EORTC 80931 randomised controlled trial for treatment of osteosarcoma are analysed. Time-varying covariates related to alkaline phosphatase levels, white blood cell counts and chemotherapy dose during treatment are investigated. The proposed method allows to detect differences between patients with different biomarkers and treatment evolutions, and to include this information in the survival model. These aspects are seldom addressed in the literature and could provide new insights into the clinical research.

Background: Recent evidence highlights the epidemiological value of blood DNA methylation (DNAm) as surrogate biomarker for exposures to risk factors for non-communicable diseases (NCD). DNAm surrogate of exposures predict diseases and longevity better than self-reported or measured exposures in many cases. Consequently, disease prediction models based on blood DNAm surrogates may outperform current state-of-art prediction models. This study aims to develop novel DNAm surrogates for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) risk factors and develop a composite biomarker predictive of CVD risk. We compared the prediction performance of our newly developed risk score with the state-of-art DNAm risk scores for cardiovascular diseases, the ‘next-generation’ epigenetic clock DNAmGrimAge, and the prediction model based on traditional risk factors SCORE2.Results: Using data from the EPIC Italy cohort, we derived novel DNAm surrogates for BMI, blood pressure, fasting glucose and insulin, cholesterol, triglycerides, and coagulation biomarkers. We validated them in four independent datasets from Europe and the US. Further, we derived a DNAmCVDscore predictive of the time-to-CVD event as a combination of several DNAm surrogates. ROC curve analyses show that DNAmCVDscore outperforms previously developed DNAm scores for CVD risk and SCORE2 for short-term CVD risk. Interestingly, the performance of DNAmGrimAge and DNAmCVDscore was comparable (slightly lower for DNAmGrimAge, although the differences were not statistically significant).Conclusions: We described novel DNAm surrogates for CVD risk factors useful for future molecular epidemiology research, and we described a blood DNAm-based composite biomarker, DNAmCVDscore, predictive of short-term cardiovascular events. Our results highlight the usefulness of DNAm surrogate biomarkers of risk factors in epigenetic epidemiology to identify high-risk populations. In addition, we provide further evidence on the effectiveness of prediction models based on DNAm surrogates and discuss methodological aspects for further improvements. Finally, our results encourage testing this approach for other NCD diseases by training and developing DNAm surrogates for disease-specific risk factors and exposures.

In clinical practice, it is often the case where the association between the occurrence of events and time-to-event outcomes is of interest; thus, it can be modeled within the framework of recurrent events. The purpose of our study is to enrich the information available for modeling survival with relevant dynamic features, properly taking into account their possibly time-varying nature, as well as to provide a new setting for quantifying the association between time-varying processes and time-to-event outcomes. We propose an innovative methodology to model information carried out by time-varying processes by means of functional data, modeling each time-varying variable as the compensator of marked point process the recurrent events are supposed to derive from. By means of Functional Principal Component Analysis, a suitable dimensional reduction of these objects is carried out in order to plug them into a Cox-type functional regression model for overall survival. We applied our methodology to data retrieved from the administrative databases of Lombardy Region (Italy), related to patients hospitalized for Heart Failure (HF) between 2000 and 2012. We focused on time-varying processes of HF hospitalizations and multiple drugs consumption and we studied how they influence patients' overall survival. This novel way to account for time-varying variables allowed to model self-exciting behaviors, for which the occurrence of events in the past increases the probability of a new event, and to quantify the effect of personal behaviors and therapeutic patterns on survival, giving new insights into the direction of personalized treatment.

Image texture analysis has for decades represented a promising opportunity for cancer assessment and disease progression evaluation, evolving over time in a discipline, i.e., radiomics. However, the road for a complete translation into clinical practice is still hampered by intrinsic limitations. As purely supervised classification models fails in devising univocal imaging- based differences in tumors with different prognosis, cancer sub- typing approaches would benefit from the employment of distant supervision, for instance exploiting survival/recurrence information. In this work, we transfer our previous model for Hodgkin Lymphoma subtyping to a multi-center study case. We evaluated model performance in two independent datasets coming from two hospitals, comparing and analyzing the results. Our preliminary data confirmed the instability of radiomics due to across-center lack of reproducibility, leading to meaningful results in one center and poorer performance in the other. We then learnt stratification rules from the first dataset via Random Forest and leveraged those rules to transfer the stratification policy onto the second dataset. In this way, on the one hand, we tested the stratification ability of cancer subtyping in a validation setting and, on the other hand, enriched the noisier dataset with valuable information, in a borrowing strength fashion. The transfer of the model resulted successful. Moreover, having extracted decision rules for cancer subtyping, we were able to draw up risk factors to be considered in clinics. The work shows the potentialities of the proposed pipeline to be further evaluated in larger multi-center datasets, with the goal of translating radiomics into clinical practice.

OBJECTIVES Although it has been postulated that patients might benefit from the centralization of high-volume specialized centres, conflicting results have been reported on the relationship between the number of lung resections performed and the long-term, all-cause mortality rates among patients who underwent surgery for lung cancer. A population-based observational study was performed to contribute to the ongoing debate. METHODS The 2613 patients, all residents of the Lombardy region (Italy), who underwent lung resection for lung cancer from 2012 to 2014 were entered into the cohort and were followed until 2018. The hospitals were classified according to the annual number of pulmonary resections performed. Three categories of lung resection cases were identified: low (≤30), intermediate (31–95) and high (>95). The outcome of interest was all-cause death. A frailty model was used to estimate the death risk associated with the categories of numbers of lung resections performed, taking into account the multilevel structure of the data. A set of sensitivity analyses was performed to account for sources of systematic uncertainty. RESULTS The 1-year and 5-year survival rates of cohort members were 90% and 63%. Patients operated on in high-volume centres were on average younger and more often women. Compared to patients operated on in a low-volume centre, the mortality risk exhibited a significant, progressive reduction as the numbers of lung resections performed increased to intermediate (−13%; 95% confidence interval +10% to −31%) and high (−26%; 0% to −45%). Sensitivity analyses revealed that the association was consistent. CONCLUSIONS Further evidence that the volume of lung resection cases performed strongly affects the long-term survival of lung cancer patients has been supplied.

to find clinical features that can predict prognosis in patients with oligometastatic disease treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) Patients with less than 5 metastases in less than 3 different body sites were included in the analysis. Various clinical and treatment parameters were analyzed to create a Cox proportional hazard model for Overall Survival (OS). Subsequently, significant variables were used to create a score 997 patients were analyzed. Median OS was 2.61 years, 1 and 3 years OS was respectively 85% and 43%. Location of the primary tumor, performance status, site of irradiated metastases, presence of extratarget non irradiated lesions and RT dose were significant prognostic factors for OS. These parameters were used to create a score and to distinguish three different classes, with median OS of 5.67 years in low risk, 2.47 years in intermediate risk and 1.82 years in high risk group. moving from easily accessible clinical parameters, a score was created to help the physician’s decision about the better treatment or combination of treatments for the individual patient.

Previous studies for cancer biomarker discovery based on pre-diagnostic blood DNA methylation profiles, either ignore the explicit modeling of the time to diagnosis (TTD) as in a survival analysis setting, or provide inconsistent results. This lack of consistency is likely due to the limitations of standard EWAS approaches, that model the effect of DNAm at CpG sites on TTD independently. In this work, we argue that a global approach to estimate CpG sites effect profile is needed, and we claim that such approach should capture the complex (potentially non-linear) relationships interplaying between sites. To prove our concept, we develop a new Deep Learning-based approach assessing the relevance of individual CpG Islands (i.e., assigning a weight to each site) in determining TTD while modeling their combined effect in a survival analysis scenario. The algorithm combines a tailored sampling procedure with DNAm sites agglomeration, deep non-linear survival modeling and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values estimation to aid robustness of the derived effects profile. The proposed approach deal with the common complexities arising from epidemiological studies, such as small sample size, noise, and low signal-to-noise ratio of blood-derived DNAm. We apply our approach to a prospective case-control study on breast cancer nested in the EPIC Italy cohort and we perform weighted gene-set enrichment analyses to demonstrate the biological meaningfulness of the obtained results. We compared the results of Deep Survival EWAS with those of a traditional EWAS approach, demonstrating that our method performs better than the standard approach in identifying biologically relevant pathways.Author summaryBlood-derived DNAm profiles could be exploited as new biomarkers for cancer risk stratification and possibly, early detection. This is of particular interest since blood is a convenient tissue to assay for constitutional methylation and its collection is non-invasive. Exploiting pre-diagnostic blood DNAm data opens the further opportunity to investigate the association of DNAm at baseline on cancer risk, modeling the relationship between sites’ methylation and the Time to Diagnosis. Previous studies mostly provide inconsistent results likely due to the limitations of standard EWAS approaches, that model the effect of DNAm at CpG sites on TTD independently. In this work we argue that an approach to estimate single CpG sites’ effect while modeling their combined effect on the survival outcome is needed, and we claim that such approach should capture the complex (potentially non-linear) relationships interplaying between sites. We prove this concept by developing a novel approach to analyze a prospective case-control study on breast cancer nested in the EPIC Italy cohort. A weighted gene set enrichment analysis confirms that our approach outperforms standard EWAS in identifying biologically meaningful pathways.

Background The role of image-derived biomarkers in recurrent oligometastatic Prostate Cancer (PCa) is unexplored. This paper aimed to evaluate [18F]FMCH PET/CT radiomic analysis in patients with recurrent PCa after primary radical therapy. Specifically, we tested intra-patient lesions similarity in oligometastatic and plurimetastatic PCa, comparing the two most used definitions of oligometastatic disease. Methods PCa patients eligible for [18F]FMCH PET/CT presenting biochemical failure after first-line curative treatments were invited to participate in this prospective observational trial. PET/CT images of 92 patients were visually and quantitatively analyzed. Each patient was classified as oligometastatic or plurimetastatic according to the total number of detected lesions (up to 3 and up to 5 or > 3 and > 5, respectively). Univariate and intra-patient lesions' similarity analysis were performed. Results [18F]FMCH PET/CT identified 370 lesions, anatomically classified as regional lymph nodes and distant metastases. Thirty-eight and 54 patients were designed oligometastatic and plurimetastatic, respectively, using a 3-lesion threshold. The number of oligometastic scaled up to 60 patients (thus 32 plurimetastatic patients) with a 5-lesion threshold. Similarity analysis showed high lesions' heterogeneity. Grouping patients according to the number of metastases, patients with oligometastatic PCa defined with a 5-lesion threshold presented lesions heterogeneity comparable to plurimetastic patients. Lesions within patients having a limited tumor burden as defined by three lesions were characterized by less heterogeneity. Conclusions We found a comparable heterogeneity between patients with up to five lesions and plurimetastic patients, while patients with up to three lesions were less heterogeneous than plurimetastatic patients, featuring different cells phenotypes in the two groups. Our results supported the use of a 3-lesion threshold to define oligometastatic PCa.

AIM: To identify the effect of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) interactions on the risk of toxicity following radiotherapy (RT) for prostate cancer (PCa) and propose a new method for polygenic risk score incorporating SNP-SNP interactions (PRSi). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Analysis included the REQUITE PCa cohort that received external beam RT and was followed for 2 years. Late toxicity endpoints were: rectal bleeding, urinary frequency, haematuria, nocturia, decreased urinary stream. Among 43 literature-identified SNPs, the 30% most strongly associated with each toxicity were tested. SNP-SNP combinations (named SNP-allele sets) seen in ≥10% of the cohort were condensed into risk (RS) and protection (PS) scores, respectively indicating increased or decreased toxicity risk. Performance of RS and PS was evaluated by logistic regression. RS and PS were then combined into a single PRSi evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: Among 1,387 analysed patients, toxicity rates were 11.7% (rectal bleeding), 4.0% (urinary frequency), 5.5% (haematuria), 7.8% (nocturia) and 17.1% (decreased urinary stream). RS and PS combined 8 to 15 different SNP-allele sets, depending on the toxicity endpoint. Distributions of PRSi differed significantly in patients with/without toxicity with AUCs ranging from 0.61 to 0.78. PRSi was better than the classical summed PRS, particularly for the urinary frequency, haematuria and decreased urinary stream endpoints. CONCLUSIONS: Our method incorporates SNP-SNP interactions when calculating PRS for radiotherapy toxicity. Our approach is better than classical summation in discriminating patients with toxicity and should enable incorporating genetic information to improve normal tissue complication probability models. ispartof: RADIOTHERAPY AND ONCOLOGY vol:159 pages:241-248 ispartof: location:Ireland status: published

Simple Summary Patients receiving chemotherapy for liver metastases from colorectal cancer may develop liver injuries that impair hepatic function and postoperative outcome. The non-invasive diagnosis of these damages is still an unmet need. Recently, advanced imaging analysis techniques, including the so-called “radiomics”, achieved adequate prediction of pathology data. The present study demonstrated that radiomic analysis of liver parenchyma in combination with clinical and laboratory data improves non-invasive diagnosis of chemotherapy-related liver injuries. Abstract Non-invasive diagnosis of chemotherapy-associated liver injuries (CALI) is still an unmet need. The present study aims to elucidate the contribution of radiomics to the diagnosis of sinusoidal dilatation (SinDil), nodular regenerative hyperplasia (NRH), and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Patients undergoing hepatectomy for colorectal metastases after chemotherapy (January 2018-February 2020) were retrospectively analyzed. Radiomic features were extracted from a standardized volume of non-tumoral liver parenchyma outlined in the portal phase of preoperative post-chemotherapy computed tomography. Seventy-eight patients were analyzed: 25 had grade 2–3 SinDil, 27 NRH, and 14 NASH. Three radiomic fingerprints independently predicted SinDil: GLRLM_f3 (OR = 12.25), NGLDM_f1 (OR = 7.77), and GLZLM_f2 (OR = 0.53). Combining clinical, laboratory, and radiomic data, the predictive model had accuracy = 82%, sensitivity = 64%, and specificity = 91% (AUC = 0.87 vs. AUC = 0.77 of the model without radiomics). Three radiomic parameters predicted NRH: conventional_HUQ2 (OR = 0.76), GLZLM_f2 (OR = 0.05), and GLZLM_f3 (OR = 7.97). The combined clinical/laboratory/radiomic model had accuracy = 85%, sensitivity = 81%, and specificity = 86% (AUC = 0.91 vs. AUC = 0.85 without radiomics). NASH was predicted by conventional_HUQ2 (OR = 0.79) with accuracy = 91%, sensitivity = 86%, and specificity = 92% (AUC = 0.93 vs. AUC = 0.83 without radiomics). In the validation set, accuracy was 72%, 71%, and 91% for SinDil, NRH, and NASH. Radiomic analysis of liver parenchyma may provide a signature that, in combination with clinical and laboratory data, improves the diagnosis of CALI.

ObjectivesThis study aims at exploring and quantifying multiple types of adverse events (AEs) experienced by patients during cancer treatment. A novel longitudinal score to evaluate the Multiple Overall Toxicity (MOTox) burden is proposed. The MOTox approach investigates the personalised evolution of high overall toxicity (high-MOTox) during the treatment.DesignRetrospective analysis of the MRC-BO06/EORTC-80931 randomised controlled trial for osteosarcoma.SettingInternational multicentre population-based study.ParticipantsA total of 377 patients with resectable high-grade osteosarcoma, who completed treatment within 180 days after randomisation without abnormal dosages (+25% higher than planned).InterventionsPatients were randomised to six cycles of conventional versus dose-intense regimens of doxorubicin and cisplatin. Non-haematological toxicity data were collected prospectively and graded according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE).Main outcome measuresThe MOTox score described the overall toxicity burden in terms of multiple toxic AEs, maximum-severity episode and cycle time-dimension. Evolution of high-MOTox was assessed through multivariable models, that investigated the impact of personalised characteristics (eg, achieved chemotherapy dose, previous AEs or biochemical factors) cycle-by-cycle.ResultsA cycle-by-cycle analysis identifies different evolutions of MOTox levels during treatment, detecting differences in patients’ health. Mean MOTox values and percentages of patients with high-MOTox decreased cycle-by-cycle from 2.626 to 1.953 and from 57.8% to 36.6%, respectively. High-MOTox conditions during previous cycles were prognostic risk factors for a new occurrence (ORs range from 1.522 to 4.439), showing that patient’s history of toxicities played an important role in the evolution of overall toxicity burden during therapy. Conventional regimen may be preferred to dose-intense in terms of AEs at cycles 2–3 (pConclusionsThe novel longitudinal method developed can be applied to any cancer studies with CTCAE-graded toxicity data. After validation in other studies, the MOTox approach may lead to improvements in healthcare assessment and treatment planning.Trial registration numberISRCTN86294690; Post-results.

This paper proposes an innovative statistical method to measure the impact of the class/school on student achievements in multiple subjects. We propose a semiparametric model for a bivariate response variable with random coefficients, that are assumed to follow a discrete distribution with an unknown number of support points, together with an Expectation-Maximization algorithm—called BSPEM algorithm—to estimate its parameters. In the case study, we apply the BSPEM algorithm to data about Italian middle schools, considering students nested within classes, and we identify subpopulations of classes, standing on their effects on student achievements in reading and mathematics. The proposed model is extremely informative in exploring the correlation between multiple class effects, which are typical of the educational production function. The estimated class effects on reading and mathematics student achievements are then explained in terms of various class and school level characteristics selected by means of a LASSO regression.

Nowadays, the importance of educational data mining and learning analytics in higher education institutions is being recognised. The analysis of university careers and of student dropout prediction is one of the most studied topics in the area of learning analytics. From the perspective of estimating the likelihood of a student dropping out, we propose an innovative statistical method that is a generalisation of mixed-effects trees for a response variable in the exponential family: generalised mixed-effects trees (GMET). We performed a simulation study in order to validate the performance of our proposed method and to compare GMET to classical models. In the case study, we applied GMET to model undergraduate student dropout in different courses at Politecnico di Milano. The model was able to identify discriminating student characteristics and estimate the effect of each degree-based course on the probability of student dropout.