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The effects of the update of the EUROfusion TIMES Model (ETM) industrial sector to account for the introduction of low-carbon technologies is presented and discussed in this work. ETM is a minimum-cost energy system model aimed at investigating the conditions for the introduction of nuclear fusion in the future electricity mix. The most interesting ETM long-run scenarios (until 2100) must comply with stringent environmental targets to pursue the Below-2-Degrees objective, identified in the Paris Agreement, allowing wide commercial adoption of innovative production processes - currently under test or research - which would almost completely replace well-established fossil-based industrial techniques in the iron and steel, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, non-metallic minerals and pulp and paper sub-sectors. Among them, low-carbon and electrolysis-based processes could open the way to a considerable increase of electricity demand, requiring also clean resources not to undermine sectoral efforts in becoming more environmentally sustainable, and the same does the implementation of CCS technologies. The study shows that the industrial sector contributes to the energy mix decarbonization by relying on CCS technologies, when available, or new low-carbon technologies. The progressive electrification of the industrial sector turns into an increasing final electricity demand which is covered by renewables and nuclear when stringent climate policies are put in place. Despite technological constraints are likely to slow down fusion deployment in the future, a range of scenarios show that nuclear fusion could contribute to generation of carbon-free electricity in the future European energy system.

In the context of strategical planning in support of the energy transition, industry plays a key role, producing alone more than 20 % direct global CO 2 emissions, thus the adoption of low-carbon technologies in this field is crucial to reach ambitious environmental goals. An important tool in building long-term environmental strategies is scenario analysis, often built through quantitative bottom-up models, among which the TIMES model generator. However, the quality of the results strongly depends on the level of detail of the dataset it can rely on. Therefore, the development of insightful environmental-friendly energy use trajectories is favored by the use of a sufficiently rich and accurately built technological repository. A review of the technological outlook is presented in this paper in five industrial subsectors (iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, non-metallic minerals, chemicals, pulp and paper). That review leads to the composition of a dataset (referred to as industrial demand technology database) including both currently existing and announced technologies to be used in a variety of macro-scale energy models, with particular reference to those belonging to the TIMES family. Techno-economic and environmental parameters are critically selected from the available data sources, in order to give a picture of the degree of sustainability that each industrial sector can achieve in the long term. This is a first-of-a-kind comprehensive review – including, among others, the characterization of very innovative technologies still in research phase – and as such, it could be very helpful to develop useful insights focusing on a low carbon, sustainable energy system development.

Fusion is one of the technologies that may contribute to a future, low carbon, global energy supply system. In this article we investigate the role that it may play under different scenarios. The global energy model ETM (originally EFDA TIMES Model) has been used to analyse the participation of fusion technologies in the global electricity system in the long term.Results show that fusion technologies penetration is higher in scenarios with stricter CO2 emissions reduction targets. In addition, investment costs and discount rates of fusion technologies are key factors for fusion implementation. Finally, the main competitors for fusion in future are Carbon Capture and Storage and fission technologies. Keywords: Energy modelling, Global power system, Fusion technologies, Climate change

Until now, the complex relationship between energy security and climate change has been addressed using a partial understanding of security, one that is based on simplified indicators such as import dependence or fuel mix diversity. As a consequence, the synergies and trade-offs between climate change and energy security policies have not been systematically explored according to a wider understanding of the latter concept. The purpose of this article is to resolve the resulting knowledge gap by proposing a theoretical approach to energy security that is consistent with its multi-dimensional nature, taking into account the whole energy supply chain. Five key ‘systemic’ properties of energy security will be identified – namely, stability, flexibility, adequacy, resilience and robustness. The paper proposes a novel framework to assess energy security and uses this framework to develop a comprehensive approach to the interactions between climate change policies and energy security. The impact of a low-carbon scenario on one of these five properties (long-term robustness) will be assessed using a complex multi-regional energy system model. The results demonstrate how this scenario induces structural changes along the whole energy supply chain, revealing dynamic vulnerabilities and trade-offs that are not adequately accounted for by existing indicator-based assessments. Finally, the paper provides solid foundations for further analysis of these trade-offs using more detailed sectoral models.

This paper aims to quantitatively explore the uncertainty around the global potential of shale gas development and its possible impacts, using a multi-regional energy system model, TIAM (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model). Starting from the premise that shale gas resource size and production cost are two key preconditions for its development, our scenario analysis reveals the way these and other variables interact with the global energy system, impacting on the regional distribution of gas production, interregional gas trade, demand and prices. The analysis shows how the reciprocal effects of substitutions on both the supply and demand-side play an important role in constraining or enabling the penetration of shale gas into the energy mix. Moreover, we systematically demonstrate that the global potential for shale gas development is contingent on a large number of intervening variables that manifest themselves in different ways across regionally-distinct energy systems. A simple theoretical model is derived from the results of the scenario analysis. Its purpose is to simplify and explain the complex behaviour of the system, by illustrating the chain of actions and feedbacks induced by different shale gas economics, their magnitude, their relative importance, and the necessary conditions for the global potential to be realised., JRC.F.3-Energy security

The paper analyses Italian hydrogen scenarios to meet climate change, environmental and energy security issues. An Italy-Markal model was used to analyse the national energy–environment up to 2050. About 40 specific hydrogen technologies were considered, reproducing the main chains of production, transport and consumption, with a focus on transport applications. The analysis is based on the Baseline and Alternative scenario results, where hydrogen reaches a significant share. The two scenarios constitute the starting points to analyse the hydrogen potential among the possible energy policy options. The energy demand in the Baseline scenario reaches values around 240 Mtoe at 2030, with an average annual growth of 0.9%. The Alternative scenario reduces consumption down to 220 Mtoe and stabilizes the CO 2 emissions. The Alternative scenario expects a rapid increase of hydrogen vehicles in 2030, up to 2.5 million, corresponding to 1 Mtoe of hydrogen consumption. A sensitivity analysis shows that the results are rather robust.

This study evaluates the overall effects of the present Italian Renewable Energy Supply of Electricity (RES-E) obligation and compares the contribution of each expected RES-E to the economic equilibrium mix resulting from computable economic equilibrium scenarios. The impact of the policies has been evaluated by means of a model of the Italian energy–environment system built with the MARKAL/TIMES methodology, which has been developed by the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Project of the International Energy Agency (IEA/ETSAP). Since the development of RES-E helps energy security, climate mitigation and the distribution of energy production revenues across the country, this study evaluates also an alternative scenario assuming a progressive increase of the RES-E obligation. Both scenarios are then compared with the targets fixed for each RES by the Italian White Paper on renewable energy source. Eventually the effectiveness of the RES-E policies implemented through the green-certificate mechanism are compared with the obligation to improve the efficiency of end-use devices fed by electricity and natural gas. Contrary to green-certificates policies, White certificates obligations increase energy security and GDP at the same time, because in principle they force end users to more rational choices.

This paper compares different results from a set of energy scenarios produced by international energy experts, in order to analyse projections on increasing European external energy dependence and vulnerability. Comparison among different scenarios constitutes the basis of a critical review of existing energy security policies, suggesting alternative or complementary future actions. According to the analysis, the main risks and negative impacts in the long term could be the increasing risk of collusion among exporters due to growing dependence of industrialized countries and insufficient diversification; and a risk of demand/supply imbalance, with consequent instability for exporting regions due to insufficient demand, and lack of infrastructures due to insufficient supply. Cooperation with exporting countries enhancing investments in production capacity, and with developing countries in order to reinforce negotiation capacity of energy-importing countries seem to be the most effective policies at international level.

The increasing interest in developing unconventional hydrocarbon resources will have important interactions with the transition to a low carbon energy system. The purpose of this article is to explore the uncertainty around the future development of shale gas and to study the complex relationship between climate change policies and energy security, using a methodology accounting for the multidimensional and systemic nature of energy security. Using a complex multiregional model of the global energy system, a scenario analysis has been developed to answer two questions: (i) to what extent and under which conditions is the deployment of shale gas consistent with a low carbon system? (ii) as a low carbon energy system prompts a number of structural changes along the whole energy supply chain, can shale gas help to dampen the negative impact on energy security of these changes? The structure of this article is as follows. Section 1 will conceptualize the links between energy security and low carbon policies and will introduce a methodological framework to assess their interactions. Section 2 will outline the modeling tools used for this assessment, and will elaborate on the input assumptions guiding the scenario analysis. Section 3 will present the results and discuss them in the context of the methodological framework set out in the first section. This will be followed by a conclusion and recommendation for future research. Keywords: climate change; shale gas; energy security; low carbon; policymaking

Soft-linking TIMES models with carefully selected complementary models can provide useful additional insights into the results from the TIMES model and can usefully scrutinize specific TIMES results in greater detail with another model. This multi-model approach can take advantage of the individual strengths of different modelling approaches. This chapter collates methodologies and results from a number of soft-linking exercises with TIMES. Two specific examples are given; firstly the soft-linking of TIMES to a power system model to investigate the TIMES results and provide additional insights into power system flexibility, reliability and market issues. The second example comprises the soft-linking of a TIMES model to a power system and a housing stock model to explore the impacts of increased electrification of residential heating on the power system and associated emissions from the residential sector. These examples show how a multi-model approach and soft-linking can provide a strong complementary analysis to TIMES modelling exercises and generate insights into results that otherwise would be difficult to achieve with a single model approach.

This paper presents a methodological framework using a multi model approach to assess power system security. System security is viewed here as a multidimensional systemic property of the entire energy system. The paper shows that the different dimensions of a secure energy system are correlated, and hence their behaviour cannot be explained solely by an understanding of the individual dimensions or by system elements in isolation. The implication of this is that a proper assessment of the security of a power system requires a combination of different techno-economic models. The paper develops a comprehensive multi-model approach for investigating energy security issues within power systems, and applies it to a case study focussing on the Italian power sector. The core research activity involves using an energy systems model of Italy (MONET) to build a dedicated power systems model (PLEXOS-IT) and then undertaking a soft-linking exercise between the two models. The purpose is to use PLEXOS-IT to investigate the system adequacy of the power system results produced by MONET for future possible energy system scenarios. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

In this quantitative assessment of fossil fuel sustainability, 13 long‐term energy scenarios are reviewed and the characteristics of sustainable consumption patterns are identified. First, economic sustainability is analysed by considering the physical availability of fossil fuels and by investigating OECD energy supply security. Second, environmental sustainability is discussed by analysing fossil fuel consumption in scenarios leading to a stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations by 2100 and also in scenarios leading to a near‐term reduction of OECD CO2 emissions. From an economic point of view there is nothing to induce policymakers to take action to reduce fossil fuel consumption. The only possible reason for abandoning the current fossil‐intensive consumption path would be by adopting a “precautionary”; approach in fixing a “safe”; level of greenhouse gas concentration (e.g. 450 ppm). Although we lack the necessary conditions for a medium‐term radical change of the energy system, in or...

In spite of its critical role, energy security lacks a universally agreed definition, which given its complexity may well just be unrealistic. The concept is still used in a wide range of reports and documents, often without discussion of its dimensions and their significance. As a consequence, the literature is characterized by an almost overwhelming focus on securing supplies of primary energy sources and geopolitics. Clearly, views on energy security also differ widely between nations. The European Union’s approach towards energy security is presented in this paper; it can be derived from several policy legislations and proposals that followed the European Commission’s 2000 Green Paper “Towards a European Strategy for the Security of Energy Supply”.

At the beginning of 2005 the European Emissions Trading Scheme came into force for the 25 European Union members. The main objective of the scheme is to reduce the costs of abating greenhouse gas emissions as indicated in the Kyoto Protocol for the industrialized economies. The European Union is the first signatory of the Protocol to implement a fully market-based mechanism at the international level with the Emissions Trading Scheme. In this paper some general considerations on the European Emissions Trading Scheme are presented, with close attention to its implementation in Italy

This paper compares different results from a set of energy scenarios produced by international energy experts, in order to analyze projections on increasing European external energy dependence and vulnerability. Comparison among different scenarios constitutes the basis of a critical review of existing energy security policies, suggesting alternative or complementary future actions. According to the analysis, the main risks and negative impacts in the long term could be the increasing risk of collusion among exporters due to growing dependence of industrialized countries and insufficient diversification; and a risk of demand/supply imbalance, with consequent instability for exporting regions due to insufficient demand, and lack of infrastructures due to insufficient supply. Cooperation with exporting countries enhancing investments in production capacity, and with developing countries in order to reinforce negotiation capacity of energy importing countries seem to be the most effective policies at international level.

The costs of energy supply disruptions for industrialised economies go well beyond the economic measures of national accounts. According to different kinds of risks, physical shortages or price shocks, there are several categories of negative effects. Oil disruptions have both a direct and an indirect impact, (at global and local levels) and have a short- and a medium-term horizon. The economic effects of electricity shortages are also direct and indirect, but the temporal lag is shorter than for oil disruptions. In this paper, we summarise the different ways an economy is affected by an oil shock or a power black-out. Oil crises in the past produced high inflation rates, trade and payments imbalances, high unemployment, and weak business and consumer confidence. The social costs of electricity shortages have immediate negative results, and relatively small, indirect effects – depending on the extension of the disruption, the duration, the availability of advance warning and information. A specific assessment of the social costs of an electricity shortage remains a research task for the future.

Increasing oil security represents one of the most important policy actions, especially within IEA countries. Short and long term mechanisms could help such goal. On the short term side, revision of IEA emergency response oil stock system has been discussed. The attention is mainly focused on three issues: the high costs of stock management for private industries, the possible use of strategic reserves to smooth price when no high supply disruption has taken, the extension of IEA emergency system to non-OECD countries. The main actions specifically proposed by the European Commission are: an harmonisation of national storage systems, with the institution of public and private agency, a wider co-ordinated use of security stocks, and an increase in the physical amount of oil stocks. Long term measures for enhancing oil supply security can be seen on the demand-side and the supply-side. Main demand-side policies could be the following: energy saving and efficiency, investments in research and technology, and reduction of oil price inelasticity especially for transport sector. Main supply-side policies can be summarized into co-operation and institutional promotion for supply diversification of suppliers/routes. Main factors that could affect described policies could be the liberalization of international trade even in the energy sector and the increasing role of oil demand from developing countries.

Energy market liberalization and international economic interdependence have affected governments’ ability to react to security of supply challenges. On the other side, whereas in the past security of supply was largely seen as a national responsibility, the frame of reference has increasingly become the EU in which liberation increases security of supply mainly by increasing the number of markets participants and improving the flexibility of energy systems. In this logic, security of supply becomes a risk management strategy with a strong inclination towards cost effectiveness, involving both the supply and the demand side. Security of supply has two major components that interrelate: cost and risk. This paper focus the attention on costs in the attempt to develop a market compatible approach geared towards security of supply.

The costs of energy supply disruptions for industrialised economies go well beyond the economic measures of national accounts. According to different kinds of risks, physical shortages or price shocks, there are several categories of negative effects. Oil disruptions have both a direct and an indirect impact, (at global and local levels) and have a short- and a medium-term horizon. The economic effects of electricity shortages are also direct and indirect, but the temporal lag is shorter than for oil disruptions. In this paper, we summarise the different ways an economy is affected by an oil shock or a power black-out. Oil crises in the past produced high inflation rates, trade and payments imbalances, high unemployment, and weak business and consumer confidence. The social costs of electricity shortages have immediate negative results, and relatively small, indirect effects - depending on the extension of the disruption, the duration, the availability of advance warning and information. A specific assessment of the social costs of an electricity shortage remains a research task for the future.

Energy market liberalization and international economic interdependence have affected governments' ability to react to security of supply challenges. On the other side, whereas in the past security of supply was largely seen as a national responsibility, the frame of reference has increasingly become the EU in which liberation increases security of supply mainly by increasing the number of markets participants and improving the flexibility of energy systems. In this logic, security of supply becomes a risk management strategy with a strong inclination towards cost effectiveness, involving both the supply and the demand side. Security of supply has two major components that interrelate: cost and risk. This paper focus the attention on costs in the attempt to develop a market compatible approach geared towards security of supply.

Increasing oil security represents one of the most important policy actions, especially within IEA countries. Short and long term mechanisms could help such goal. On the short term side, revision of IEA emergency response oil stock system has been discussed. The attention is mainly focused on three issues: the high costs of stock management for private industries, the possible use of strategic reserves to smooth price when no high supply disruption has taken, the extension of IEA emergency system to non-OECD countries. The main actions specifically proposed by the European Commission are: an harmonisation of national storage systems, with the institution of public and private agency, a wider co-ordinated use of security stocks, and an increase in the physical amount of oil stocks. Long term measures for enhancing oil supply security can be seen on the demand-side and the supply-side. Main demand-side policies could be the following: energy saving and efficiency, investments in research and technology, and reduction of oil price inelasticity especially for transport sector. Main supply-side policies can be summarized into co-operation and institutional promotion for supply diversification of suppliers/routes. Main factors that could affect described policies could be the liberalization of international trade even in the energy sector and the increasing role of oil demand from developing countries.

This work presents the EFDA Times model (ETM), developed within the European Fusion Development Agreement (EFDA). ETM is an optimization global energy model which aims at providing the optimum energy system composition in terms of social wealth and sustainability including fusion as an alternative technology in the long term. Two framework scenarios are defined: a Base case scenario with no limits to CO2 emissions, and a 450ppm scenario with a limit of 450ppm in CO2-eq concentrations set by 2100. Previous results showed that in the Base case scenario, with no measures for CO 2 emission reductions, fusion does not enter the energy system. However, when CO2 emission restrictions are imposed, the global energy system composition changes completely. In a 450ppm scenario, coal technologies disappear in a few decades, being mainly replaced by nuclear fission technologies which experience a great increase when constrained only by Uranium resources exhaustion. Fission technologies are then replaced by the fusion power plants that start in 2070, with a significant contribution to the global electricity production by 2100. To conclude the work, a sensitivity analysis will be presented on some parameters that may affect the possible role of fusion in the future global energy system.

Description of energy-intensive industrial technologies included in the OpenIndustrial demand technology database (Open-IDTD) and data for the calculation of environmental performance factors