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This study addresses the understudied dynamics of mortality and recruitment in Tropical Mountain forests, critical determinants of forest structural processes and biomass turnover. We examine how these demographic processes change with elevation and varying degrees of forest recovery by utilizing two forest censuses (2015 and 2019) from 16 plots (0.36 ha) across a 600-3500 m asl elevation gradient in the Ecuadorian Andes. Employing multivariate PCA analyses, we characterize successional forest dynamics and explore relationships between demographic rates, elevation, and indicators of forest recovery using standard linear regression and generalized additive models (GAMs). Contrary to our hypothesis, mortality exhibits a unimodal response, peaking at mid-elevations, with no significant relationship to above-ground biomass productivity (AGBp). In our successional forests, dominance by fast-growing species alters expected patterns, leading to increased mortality rates and AGBp, particularly at low-mid elevations. Forest recovery emerges as a significant driver of mortality and the sole predictor of recruitment, especially across different recovery statuses. Although forest recovery doesn't impact mortality rates, it elucidates the identity of declining species in forests with varying recovery degrees. Our findings underscore that while forest recovery does not alter mortality rates, it provides critical insights into understanding which species are affected under varying recovery conditions. Recruitment, primarily driven by successional dynamics, exhibits higher rates in sites with less recovery. Furthermore, we demonstrate the utility of forest structure indicators, such as above-ground biomass, in inferring successional dynamics when the time since the last disturbance is unknown. The study emphasizes the importance of considering disturbances in comprehending the intricate interplay between the environment and forest dynamics in secondary forests.

Land-use change is a primary driver of biodiversity loss. Tropical ecosystems face rapid conversion rates due to the encroachment of agricultural lands and supply needs for goods and services from an increasing population and changing market demands. Measuring the effect of land conversion on species diversity is challenging due to incomplete and uneven knowledge of different taxonomical groups. Here, we contrast different metrics for measuring biodiversity loss across three land-use typologies: secondary forest, agroforestry, and monoculture for five taxonomic groups: birds, frogs, fish, dung beetles, and macroinvertebrates in the Andean piedmont forests of the western equatorial Andes. Albeit our limited and uneven sample in space and time, we found that rarity, Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling, and Multinomial Classification Model (i.e., classifications of habitat specialists and generalists) constitute a more sensitive set of indicators to assess land-use change impacts on tropical mountain biodiversity compared to classical metrics. Likewise, our results showed that land-use intensification influenced community assemblages in the five taxonomic groups. These non-classical biodiversity metrics can provide better insight into the effect of land conversion on these highly biodiverse ecosystems composed of many rare species.

The Western Amazon is a highly biodiverse area. Zooplankton diversity studies in the region have been primarily conducted in Peru and Colombia, with limited research in the Ecuadorian Amazon. To address this gap, our research aimed to enhance taxonomic knowledge and understand zooplankton diversity patterns in the Napo and Pastaza lower basins at different spatial and temporal scales. Two sampling expeditions were conducted in the high waters of 2021 and rising waters of 2022. Dry conditions in 2021 led to lower-than-expected water levels. The study identified 107 zooplankton species, revealing variations in richness and composition between years, lakes, and depth strata. Grande Lake, deeper and wider than Delfincocha, exhibited significant turnover variations across strata in both seasons. Despite a relative longitudinal homogenization between channels and floodplains during high waters, beta diversity across vertical and temporal gradients highlighted complex dynamic zooplankton communities in both lakes. In addition, we include the first records of 44 taxa for the Ecuadorian Amazon and 36 for Ecuador. These findings emphasize the need for targeted research and conservation efforts in the face of escalating environmental threats to the Western Amazon.

Polyethylene plastic bags manufactured via blown film extrusion have different quality specifications depending on their intended use. It is known that the mechanical properties of a film depend on the process parameters established, but little is known concerning how they affect one another, even more so due to the variety of polyethylene materials and processing techniques. This study focuses on establishing a proper correspondence of important mechanical properties like the dart impact, tensile strength at break, and elongation at break with commonly used process parameters like the blow-up ratio, take-up ratio, thickness reduction, and neck height, for a high-density polyethylene hexene copolymer and a linear low-density polyethylene butene copolymer blend film. Because this polyethylene mixture is an anisotropic material, interesting R2 values equal to or higher than 0.90 were found: a BUR with elongation at break and tensile strength at break in the MD and TD, a TUR with elongation at break in the MD and tensile strength at break in the MD and TD, and a TR with elongation at break and tensile strength at break in the MD. Also, a relationship between the dart impact and both the neck height and thickness were found.

Patterns of species diversity have been associated with changes in climate across latitude and elevation. However, the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms underlying these relationships are still actively debated. Here, we present a complementary view of the well-known tropical niche conservatism (TNC) hypothesis, termed the multiple zones of origin (MZO) hypothesis, to explore mechanisms underlying latitudinal and elevational gradients of phylogenetic diversity in tree communities. The TNC hypothesis posits that most lineages originate in warmer, wetter, and less seasonal environments in the tropics and rarely colonize colder, drier, and more seasonal environments outside of the tropical lowlands, leading to higher phylogenetic diversity at lower latitudes and elevations. In contrast, the MZO hypothesis posits that lineages also originate in temperate environments and readily colonize similar environments in the tropical highlands, leading to lower phylogenetic diversity at lower latitudes and elevations. We tested these phylogenetic predictions using a combination of computer simulations and empirical analyses of tree communities in 245 forest plots located in six countries across the tropical and subtropical Andes. We estimated the phylogenetic diversity for each plot and regressed it against elevation and latitude. Our simulated and empirical results provide strong support for the MZO hypothesis. Phylogenetic diversity among co-occurring tree species increased with both latitude and elevation, suggesting an important influence on the historical dispersal of lineages with temperate origins into the tropical highlands. The mixing of different floras was likely favored by the formation of climatically suitable corridors for plant migration due to the Andean uplift. Accounting for the evolutionary history of plant communities helps to advance our knowledge of the drivers of tree community assembly along complex climatic gradients, and thus their likely responses to modern anthropogenic climate change.

(1) Background: Tropical Mountain forests (TMF) constitute a threatened major carbon sink due to deforestation. Carbon compensation projects could significantly aid in preserving these ecosystems. Consequently, we need a better understanding of the above-ground carbon (AGC) spatial distribution in TMFs to provide project developers with accurate estimations of their mitigation potential; (2) Methods: integrating field measurements and remote sensing data into a random forest (RF) modelling framework, we present the first high-resolution estimates of AGC density (Mg C ha−1) over the western Ecuadorian Andes to inform an ongoing carbon compensation mechanism; (3) Results: In 2021, the total landscape carbon storage was 13.65 Tg in 194,795 ha. We found a broad regional partitioning of AGC density mediated primarily by elevation. We report RF-estimated AGC density errors of 15% (RMSE = 23.8 Mg C ha−1) on any 10 m pixel along 3000 m of elevation gradient covering a wide range of ecological conditions; (4) Conclusions: Our approach showed that AGC high-resolution maps displaying carbon stocks on a per-pixel level with high accuracy (85%) could be obtained with a minimum of 14 ground-truth plots enriched with AGC density data from published regional studies. Likewise, our maps increased precision and reduced uncertainty concerning current methodologies used by international standards in the Voluntary Carbon Market.

Reference ecosystems used in tropical forest restoration lack the temporal dimension required to characterise a mature or intact vegetation community. Here we provide a practical ‘palaeo-reference ecosystem’ for the eastern Andean forests of Ecuador to complement the standard ‘reference ecosystem’ approach. Pollen assemblages from sedimentary archives recovered from Ecuadorian montane forests are binned into distinct time periods and characterised as 1) Ancient (pre-human arrival), 2) Pre-European (Indigenous cultivation), 3) Successional (European arrival/Indigenous depopulation), 4) Mature (diminished human population), 5) Deforested (re-colonisation), and 6) Modern (industrial agriculture). A multivariate statistical approach is then used to identify the most recent period in which vegetation can be characterised as mature. Detrended correspondence analysis indicates that the pollen spectra from CE 1718-1819 (time bin 4 – Mature (diminished human population)) is most similar to that of a pre-human arrival mature or intact state. The pollen spectra of this period are characterised by Melastomataceae, Fabaceae, Solanaceae and Weinmannia. The vegetation of the 1700s, therefore, provides the most recent phase of substantial mature vegetation that has undergone over a century of recovery, representing a practical palaeo-reference ecosystem. We propose incorporating palynological analyses of short cores spanning the last 500 years with botanical inventory data to achieve more realistic and long-term restoration goals.

Abstract The Galapagos Islands are a global hotspot of environmental change. However, despite their potentially major repercussions, little is known about current and expected changes in regional terrestrial climate variables and sea surface temperatures (SST). Here, by analysing existing meteorological observations and secondary datasets, we find that the Islands have warmed by about 0.6 °C since the early 1980s, while at the same time becoming drier. In fact, the onset of the wet season is currently delayed 20 days. This drying trend may reverse, however, given that future climate projections for the region suggest mean annual precipitation may increase between 20 and 70%. This would also be accompanied by more extreme wet and hot conditions. Further, we find that regional SST has increased by 1.2 °C over the last two decades. These changes will, in turn, translate into deterioration of marine ecosystems and coral, proliferation of invasive species, and damages to human water, food, and infrastructure systems. Future projections, however, may be overestimated due to the poor capacity of climatic models to capture Eastern-Pacific ENSO dynamics. Our findings emphasize the need to design resilient climate adaptation policies that will remain robust in the face of a wide range of uncertain and changing climatic futures.

Here, the authors investigate the aboveground carbon sink efficiency of Andean forests. The study shows the high potential of these forests to serve as future carbon refuges, and urges to reduce deforestation and increase restoration.

Aquatic insects in the order Trichoptera are extremely diverse in number of species and their trophic roles. However, their distribution and diversity patterns are poorly known in the Neotropics, including the species restricted to tropical mountain ecosystems. Recent studies in tropical mountains have shown high levels of endemism of aquatic insects and changes in the composition of communities over short distances. Still, the incidence of environmental filters that explain such patterns has not been addressed quantitatively. Given the relevance of understanding Trichoptera spatial diversity patterns to prioritize conservation areas for freshwaters, as well as to obtain baseline information to predict changes in aquatic communities facing global environmental changes, we assessed the species distribution and assemblages of caddisflies along an elevational gradient from 600 to 3,600 m a.s.l. on the equatorial Andes. In this area, we had long-term continuous climate data with hourly resolution. We collected adult caddisflies in seven localities along this gradient using light traps. We sampled each locality for two hours after sunset for three consecutive days. All specimens collected were identified to species or morphospecies. Our results showed an increase in species and genera numbers with decreasing altitude, albeit no significant. Minimum air temperature is the main environmental variable explaining Trichoptera community assemblages. β-diversity (taxon turnover among sites), as opposed to species richness, increased with altitude and showed a bimodal distribution along the elevation gradient for both genera and species assemblages, which resulted in a significant shift in community composition of species and genera at 2,000 m a.s.l. Our null-models confirm the observed patterns of B-diversity are non-random and suggest a strong environmental filtering of tropical caddisflies community assemblies and turnover. Geographic distance coupled with changes in environmental conditions along the elevation gradient explained a high percentage of community variance, as documented for other taxa (e.g., vascular plants), suggesting the importance of securing habitat connectivity along the altitudinal gradient to protect aquatic insect diversity effectively.

Due to warming, changes in microclimatic temperatures have shifted plant community structure and dynamics in tundra and alpine regions. The directionality and magnitude of these changes are less known for tropical alpine ecosystems. To understand the likely trajectory of these shifts in the Andes, we conducted a warming experiment in the northern Andes—using open-top chambers (OTC). In this study, we ask (1) how do OTCs affect air and soil temperatures in microclimates of tropical alpine regions, year-round and during the dry season? (2) What are the effects of 7 years of warming on (a) the aboveground biomass (AGB) and (b) the plant taxonomic and growth form diversity? We installed five monitoring blocks in 2012 at ca. 4,200 m asl with 20 OTCs and 50 control plots randomly distributed within each block. We measured AGB, plant community diversity, and growth form diversity between 2014 and 2019. After 7 years of warming, we found significant increases in mean monthly (+0.24°C), daily (+0.16°C), and night air temperatures (+0.33°C) inside the OTCs, and the OTCs intensified microclimatic conditions during the dry season. Additionally, OTCs attenuated extreme temperatures—particularly in the soil—and the number of freezing events. AGB significantly increased in OTCs, and by 2019, it was 27% higher in OTCs than in control. These changes were driven mainly by a progressive increment of tussock grasses such as Calamagrostis intermedia, typical of lower elevations. The increase of tussocks led to a significant decrease in species diversity and evenness inside OTCs, but not in species richness after accounting by sampling time. Furthermore, cushions and herbs decreased inside OTCs. Our results show that experimental warming using OTCs in equatorial regions leads to decreased daily thermal amplitude and night temperatures rather than the level of increase in mean temperatures observed in temperate regions. The increase of tussocks and decrease in diversity of species and growth forms due to prolonged modifications in microclimatic temperature might be a step toward shrub-dominated ecosystems. Further research on this topic would help understand shifts in growth form dominance and the direction and rate of change of the system.

Analyzing plant phenology and plant–animal interaction networks can provide sensitive mechanistic indicators to understand the response of alpine plant communities to climate change. However, monitoring data to analyze these processes is scarce in alpine ecosystems, particularly in the highland tropics. The Andean páramos constitute the coldest biodiversity hotspot on Earth, and their species and ecosystems are among the most exposed and vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Here, we analyze for the first time baseline data for monitoring plant phenological dynamics and plant–pollinator networks along an elevation gradient between 4,200 and 4,600 m asl in three mountain summits of the Venezuelan Andes, which are part of the GLORIA monitoring network. We estimated the presence and density of plants with flowers in all the summits and in permanent plots, every month for 1 year. Additionally, we identified pollinators. We calculated a phenological overlap index between species. We summarized the plant–pollinator interactions as a bipartite matrix and represented a quantitative plant–pollinator network, calculating structural properties (grade, connectance, nestedness, and specialization). We also evaluated whether the overall network structure was influenced by differences in sampling effort, changes in species composition between summits, and phenology of the plant species. Finally, we characterized the pollination syndrome of all species. Flowering showed a marked seasonality, with a peak toward the end of the wet season. The overall phenological overlap index was low (0.32), suggesting little synchrony in flowering among species. Species richness of both plants and pollinators decreased along the elevation gradient. Flies, bumblebees, and hummingbirds were the most frequent pollinators in the network, while entomophily and anemophily were the prevailing pollination syndromes. The interaction network in all summits showed high connectance values, significant specialization (H2), and low nestedness. We did not find a significant effect of sampling effort, summit plant species composition, or plant phenology on network structure. Our results indicate that these high tropical alpine plant communities and their plant-pollination networks could be particularly vulnerable to the loss of species in climate change scenarios, given their low species richness and functional redundancy coupled with a high degree of specialization and endemism.

Abstract It remains poorly understood how the composition of leaf wax n‐alkanes reflects the local environment. This knowledge gap inhibits the interpretation of plant responses to the environment at the community level and, by extension, inhibits the applicability of n‐alkane patterns as a proxy for past environments. Here, we studied the n‐alkane patterns of five Miconia species and one Guarea species, in the Ecuadorian Andes (653–3,507 m a.s.l.). We tested for species‐specific responses in the average chain length (ACL), the C31/(C31 + C29) ratio (ratio), and individual odd n‐alkane chain lengths across an altitudinally driven environmental gradient (mean annual temperature, mean annual relative air humidity, and mean annual precipitation). We found significant correlations between the environmental gradients and species‐specific ACL and ratio, but with varying magnitude and direction. We found that the n‐alkane patterns are species‐specific at the individual chain length level, which could explain the high variance in metrics like ACL and ratio. Although we find species‐specific sensitivity and responses in leaf n‐alkanes, we also find a general decrease in “shorter” (C31) chain lengths with the environmental gradients, most strongly with temperature, suggesting n‐alkanes are useful for reconstructing past environments.

The present manuscript is the expansion of the method Modelling of freezing time described in a previous paper. This modeling was used for simulating freezing times required for the inactivation of anisakids. The method described here can also be used for a number of other applications where the time or the temperature of the food needs to be modeled. In general, when a food is brought from room temperature to temperatures below −5∘C, the temperature kinetics follow three different parts which include cooling from initial temperature to the initial freezing point, freezing from the freezing point to −5∘C in the center of the food, and cooling from −5∘C to the final temperature in the center of the food. The present customized procedure is mainly based upon established estimation procedures. Following the description of the methods, an example of the calculation for freezing hake (Merluccius merluccius) mince muscle is provided for each of the phases. The method consists in the following: • Calculation of the pre freezing and sub freezing times with a similar procedure but separately since the sample has different thermo physical properties in each stage (cooling). • Calculation of the freezing time first for an infinite flat plate, and then a correction is applied for the actual geometry (finite cylinder). • The total freezing time is the sum of the three separate parts of the freezing process.

Few studies exist that document how high-elevation Andean ecosystems recover naturally after the cessation of human activities and this can limit the implementation of cost-effective restoration actions. We assessed Andean forest (Polylepis stands) and páramo grassland recovery along an elevation gradient (3,600-4,350 m.a.s.l.) in the Yanacocha Reserve (Ecuador) where natural recovery has been allowed since 1995. Within the Yanacocha Reserve in 2012 and 2014 the aboveground biomass (AGB), aboveground necromass (AGN) and belowground biomass (BGB) carbon (C) stocks were measured and C sequestration rates calculated as proxy of ecosystem recovery. The soil organic carbon (SOC) stock to 36-cm depth was also quantified during the 2012 survey. To explore potential drivers of spatiotemporal variation of the forest and páramo C stocks they were related to abiotic and biotic variables. Andean forest C stocks were influenced mainly by disturbance history and tree-species composition. Páramo C stocks´ spatial variation were related to the elevation gradient; we found a positive significant trend in páramo AGB-C stocks with elevation, whereas we found a significant negative trend in AGN-C stocks. Likewise, significant temporal changes were found for AGB-C and AGN-C stocks. Net increases in AGB-C stocks were the largest in the Andean forest and páramo, 2.5 Mg C ha-1 year-1 and 1.5 Mg C ha-1 year-1 respectively. Carbon sequestration rates were partly explained by environmental variables. In the Andean forest, plots with low dominance of Baccharis padifolia were observed to present higher AGB-C and lower BGB-C sequestration rates. In the páramo, higher sequestration rates for AGB-C were found at higher elevations and associated with higher levels of growth-forms diversity. Temporal changes in BGB-C stocks on the contrary were non-significant. Our results indicated that terrestrial aboveground C sequestration rates might be an appropriate indicator for assessing Andean forest and páramo recovery after human disturbance.

Our knowledge about the structure and function of Andean forests at regional scales remains limited. Current initiatives to study forests over continental or global scales still have important geographical gaps, particularly in regions such as the tropical and subtropical Andes. In this study, we assessed patterns of structure and tree species diversity along ~ 4000 km of latitude and ~ 4000 m of elevation range in Andean forests. We used the Andean Forest Network (Red de Bosques Andinos, https://redbosques.condesan.org/) database which, at present, includes 491 forest plots (totaling 156.3 ha, ranging from 0.01 to 6 ha) representing a total of 86,964 identified tree stems ≥ 10 cm diameter at breast height belonging to 2341 identified species, 584 genera and 133 botanical families. Tree stem density and basal area increases with elevation while species richness decreases. Stem density and species richness both decrease with latitude. Subtropical forests have distinct tree species composition compared to those in the tropical region. In addition, floristic similarity of subtropical plots is between 13 to 16% while similarity between tropical forest plots is between 3% to 9%. Overall, plots ~ 0.5-ha or larger may be preferred for describing patterns at regional scales in order to avoid plot size effects. We highlight the need to promote collaboration and capacity building among researchers in the Andean region (i.e., South-South cooperation) in order to generate and synthesize information at regional scale.

The long-term survival of Andean forest landscapes (AFL) and of their capacity to contribute to sustainable development in a context of global change requires integrated adaptation and mitigation responses informed by a thorough understanding of the dynamic and complex interactions between their ecological and social components. This article proposes a research agenda that can help guide AFL research efforts for the next 15 years. The agenda was developed between July 2015 and June 2016 through a series of workshops in Ecuador, Peru, and Switzerland and involved 48 researchers and development experts working on AFL from different disciplinary perspectives. Based on our review of current research and identification of pressing challenges for the conservation and sustainable governance of AFL, we propose a conceptual framework that draws on sustainability sciences and social–ecological systems research, and we identify a set of high-priority research goals and objectives organized into 3 broad categories: systems knowledge, target knowledge, and transformation knowledge. This paper is intended to be a reference for a broad array of actors engaged in policy, research, and implementation in the Andean region. We hope it will trigger collaborative research initiatives for the continued conservation and sustainable governance of AFL.

The use of unmanned aerial robots has increased exponentially in recent years, and the relevance of industrial applications in environments with degraded satellite signals is rising. This article presents a solution for the 3D localization of aerial robots in such environments. In order to truly use these versatile platforms for added-value cases in these scenarios, a high level of reliability is required. Hence, the proposed solution is based on a probabilistic approach that makes use of a 3D laser scanner, radio sensors, a previously built map of the environment and input odometry, to obtain pose estimations that are computed onboard the aerial platform. Experimental results show the feasibility of the approach in terms of accuracy, robustness and computational efficiency.

Effective landscape restoration practices require scientific knowledge about ecosystem functions, land use history, and institutional arrangements. In close collaboration with local partners, the Consortium for the Sustainable Development of the Andean Ecoregion (CONDESAN) is working to develop and assess restoration practices in Andean ecosystems. The approach combines various tools at the landscape scale, emphasizing the need to integrate restoration actions into land use planning and the importance of monitoring restoration practices. The sustainability of restoration practices remains a challenge, but the work underway will allow CONDESAN to generate sound alternatives for Andean landscapes.

General patterns of forest dynamics and productivity in the Andes Mountains are poorly characterized. Here we present the first large-scale study of Andean forest dynamics using a set of 63 permanent forest plots assembled over the past two decades. In the North-Central Andes tree turnover (mortality and recruitment) and tree growth declined with increasing elevation and decreasing temperature. In addition, basal area increased in Lower Montane Moist Forests but did not change in Higher Montane Humid Forests. However, at higher elevations the lack of net basal area change and excess of mortality over recruitment suggests negative environmental impacts. In North-Western Argentina, forest dynamics appear to be influenced by land use history in addition to environmental variation. Taken together, our results indicate that combinations of abiotic and biotic factors that vary across elevation gradients are important determinants of tree turnover and productivity in the Andes. More extensive and longer-term monitoring and analyses of forest dynamics in permanent plots will be necessary to understand how demographic processes and woody biomass are responding to changing environmental conditions along elevation gradients through this century.

One of the key parameters in the processing system of a smart antenna system is the direction of arrival of the signal of interest (DOA). DOA’s estimation traditionally performed spectral analysis on the signal received by the antenna array. Considering that the smart antenna system is designed for an autonomous mobile user, such as a UAV, the processing system takes advantage of the navigation systems to estimate the direction of arrival of the source originated in his control station. With this information, we must develop an algorithm capable of providing intelligence to an antenna system using information from a GPS. It ensures that the antenna system is able to provide advanced functionality at low cost.

A critical component of an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) is the communications system. It is in charge of transmitting information from the aircraft to the base station and sending configurations to the aircraft. It is important to keep safe the communication link, considering that energy resources limit the autonomy of operation of the aircraft. For this reason, this paper presents a low complex smart antenna system that manages the transmission power of the communication system based on aircraft position using the positioning module that it is part of the equipment of the aircraft.

Observations and projections for mountain regions show a strong tendency towards upslope displacement of their biomes under future climate conditions. Because of their climatic and topographic heterogeneity, a more complex response is expected for biodiversity hotspots such as tropical mountain regions. This study analyzes potential changes in the distribution of biomes in the Tropical Andes and identifies target areas for conservation. Biome distribution models were developed using logistic regressions. These models were then coupled to an ensemble of 8 global climate models to project future distribution of the Andean biomes and their uncertainties. We analysed projected changes in extent and elevational range and identified regions most prone to change. Our results show a heterogeneous response to climate change. Although the wetter biomes exhibit an upslope displacement of both the upper and the lower boundaries as expected, most dry biomes tend to show downslope expansion. Despite important losses being projected for several biomes, projections suggest that between 74.8% and 83.1% of the current total Tropical Andes will remain stable, depending on the emission scenario and time horizon. Between 3.3% and 7.6% of the study area is projected to change, mostly towards an increase in vertical structure. For the remaining area (13.1%-17.4%), there is no agreement between model projections. These results challenge the common believe that climate change will lead to an upslope displacement of biome boundaries in mountain regions. Instead, our models project diverging responses, including downslope expansion and large areas projected to remain stable. Lastly, a significant part of the area expected to change is already affected by land use changes, which has important implications for management. This, and the inclusion of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, will help to inform conservation strategies in the Tropical Andes, and to guide similar assessments for other tropical mountains.

RESUMEN: Se presentan en este trabajo los resultados de una serie de dataciones radiocarbónicas calibradas obtenidas a partir de muestras procedentes de castros asturianos. Algunas de estas dataciones son completamente novedosas, como las de San Chuis y La Campa Torres, y otras se han recopilado a partir de la bibliografía. La interpretación de las dataciones obliga a reconsiderar el origen de la cultura castreña asturiana, situándose claramente en época prerromana, entre los siglos IX y VI a.C. También se han datado niveles claramente romanos (siglos I a III p.C) y niveles tardorromanos situados sobre los siglos V-VI p.C.ABSTRACT: Conclusions on calibrated radiocarbon dates obtained upon samples of castros (hillforts) in Asturias (North Spain) are shown. Dates from San Chuis and La Campa Torres are published for the first time, while others have been collected from the archaeological literature. The interpretation of the dates implies to rethink the origins of the Cultura Castreña placing them on Preroman times, between IX and VI centuries BC. Nevertheless, clear Roman levels (I to III centuries AD) and Later Roman levels (V to VI centuries AD) have' also been dated.

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