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The surface brightness distribution of massive early-type galaxies (ETGs) often deviates from a perfectly elliptical shape. To capture these deviations in their isophotes during an ellipse fitting analysis, Fourier modes of order $m = 3, 4$ are often used. In such analyses the centre of each ellipse is treated as a free parameter, which may result in offsets from the centre of light, particularly for ellipses in the outer regions. This complexity is not currently accounted for in the mass models used in either strong gravitational lensing or galactic dynamical studies. In this work, we adopt a different approach, using the $m=1$ Fourier mode to account for this complexity while keeping the centres of all perturbed ellipses fixed, showing that it fits the data equally well. We applied our method to the distribution of light emission to a sample of ETGs from the MASSIVE survey and found that the majority have low $m_1$ amplitudes, below 2 percent. Five out of the 30 galaxies we analysed have high $m_1$ amplitudes, ranging from 2 to 10 percent in the outer parts ($R \gtrsim 3$ kpc), all of which have a physically associated companion. Based on our findings, we advocate the use of the $m=1$ multipole in the mass models used in strong lensing and dynamical studies, particularly for galaxies with recent or ongoing interactions., Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures. Submitted to MNRAS

The latest cosmological constraints on the sum of the neutrino masses depend on prior physical assumptions about the mass spectrum. To test the accordance of cosmological and laboratory constraints in the absence of such priors, we introduce an effective neutrino mass parameter that extends consistently to negative values. For the $\Lambda$CDM model, we analyze data from Planck, ACT, and DESI and find a $2.8-3.3\sigma$ tension with the constraints from oscillation experiments. Motivated by recent hints of evolving dark energy, we analyze the $w_0w_a$ and mirage dark energy models, showing that they favour larger masses consistent with laboratory data, respectively $\sum m_{\nu,\mathrm{eff}} = 0.06_{-0.10}^{+0.15}\,\mathrm{eV}$ and $\sum m_{\nu,\mathrm{eff}} = 0.04_{-0.11}^{+0.15}\,\mathrm{eV}$ (both at 68\%)., Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures

Observations with the James Webb Space Telescope have revealed a high abundance of bright galaxies at redshift, $z\gtrsim 12$, which has been widely interpreted as conflicting with the $\Lambda$CDM model. In Cowley et al. (2018) predictions were made - prior to the JWST observations - for the expected abundance of these galaxies using the Durham semi-analytic galaxy formation model, GALFORM, which is known to produce a realistic population of galaxies at lower redshifts including the present day. Key to this model is the assumption of a "top-heavy" initial mass function of stars formed in bursts (required to explain the number counts and redshift distribution of sub-millimetre galaxies). Here, we compare the rest-frame ultraviolet luminosity functions derived from JWST observations with those predicted by the Cowley et al. model up to $z=14$ and make further predictions for $z=16$. We find that below $z\sim 10$, the Cowley et al. predictions agree very well with observations, while agreement at $z\gtrsim12$ requires extending the model to take into account the timescale for the growth of obscuring dust grains and its dependence on gas metallicity. We trace the evolution of these galaxies from $z=14$ to $z=0$ and find that their descendants typically reside in halos with a median mass of $10^{13.6}\,h^{-1}\,\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$. The stellar masses of the descendants range from $10^{7}\,h^{-1}\,\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ to $10^{11.5}\,h^{-1}\,\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$. Although these galaxies were all central galaxies at $z=14$, nearly half of their descendants end up as satellites in massive halos., Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, submitted to MNRAS on 4 June, 2024

The dark matter subhalos orbiting in a galactic halo perturb the orbits of stars in thin stellar streams. Over time the random velocities in the streams develop non-Gaussian wings. The rate of velocity increase is approximately a random walk at a rate proportional to the number of subhalos, primarily those in the mass range $\approx 10^{6-7} M_\odot$. The distribution of random velocities in long, thin, streams is measured in simulated Milky Way-like halos that develop in representative WDM and CDM cosmologies. The radial velocity distributions are well modeled as the sum of a Gaussian and an exponential. The resulting MCMC fits find Gaussian cores of 1-2 km/sec and exponential wings that increase from 3 km/sec for 5.5 keV WDM, 4 km/sec for 7 keV WDM, to 6 km/sec for a CDM halo. The observational prospects to use stream measurements to constrain the nature of galactic dark matter are discussed., Comment: AAS Journals submitted

We examine the morphological and kinematical properties of SPT-2147, a strongly lensed, massive, dusty, star-forming galaxy at $z = 3.762$. Combining data from JWST, HST, and ALMA, we study the galaxy's stellar emission, dust continuum and gas properties. The imaging reveals a central bar structure in the stars and gas embedded within an extended disc with a spiral arm-like feature. The kinematics confirm the presence of the bar and of the regularly rotating disc. Dynamical modeling yields a dynamical mass, ${M}_{\rm dyn} = (9.7 \pm 2.0) \times 10^{10}$ ${\rm M}_{\odot}$, and a maximum rotational velocity to velocity dispersion ratio, $V / \sigma = 9.8 \pm 1.2$. From multi-band imaging we infer, via SED fitting, a stellar mass, ${M}_{\star} = (6.3 \pm 0.9) \times 10^{10}$ $\rm{M}_{\odot}$, and a star formation rate, ${\rm SFR} = 781 \pm 99$ ${\rm M_{\odot} yr^{-1}}$, after correcting for magnification. Combining these measurements with the molecular gas mass, we derive a baryonic-to-total mass ratio of ${M}_{\rm bar} / {M}_{\rm dyn} = 0.9 \pm 0.2$ within 4.0 kpc. This finding suggests that the formation of bars in galaxies begins earlier in the history of the Universe than previously thought and can also occur in galaxies with elevated gas fractions., Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures. Submitted to MNRAS

The Voids-within-Voids-within-Voids (VVV) project used dark-matter-only simulations to study the abundance and structure of dark matter haloes over the full mass range populated in the standard $\Lambda\mathrm{CDM}$ cosmology. Here we explore how baryonic effects modify these results for $z=0$ halo masses in the range $10^4$ to $10^7~\mathrm{M_\odot}$, below the threshold for galaxy formation. Our main study focuses on three simulations from identical initial conditions at $z=127$, one following dark matter only, one including non-radiative gas, and one additionally including the baryonic physics relevant in this halo mass range (cooling and photoheating). In the non-radiative simulation, above $10^{5.5}~\mathrm{M_\odot}$, halo abundance and internal structure are very similar to the dark-matter-only simulation, and the baryon to dark matter ratio is everywhere close to the cosmic value. At lower mass, this ratio drops and haloes are less concentrated and less massive in the non-radiative case. Test simulations at higher resolution show this to be mainly a resolution effect; the expected drop in baryon content due to residual pressure effects only becomes substantial for $z=0$ haloes below $\sim 10^{2.7}~\mathrm{M_\odot}$. However, gas is heated by reionization at $z=6$ in our ``full physics'' run, and this results in almost complete expulsion of gas from all haloes in our simulated mass range. This suppresses the halo mass function by $\sim 30 \%$, lowers halo concentration, and consequently weakens the dark matter annihilation signal by $\sim 40-60 \%$., Comment: 12+2 pages, 9 figures

In a strong gravitational lensing system, the distorted light from a source is analysed to infer the properties of the lens. However, light emitted by the lens itself can contaminate the image of the source, introducing systematic errors in the analysis. We present a simple and efficient lens light model based on the well-tested multi-Gaussian expansion (MGE) method for representing galaxy surface brightness profiles, which we combine with a semi-linear inversion scheme for pixelized source modelling. Testing it against realistic mock lensing images, we show that our scheme can fit the lensed images to the noise level, with relative differences between the true input and best-fit lens light model remaining below 5%. We apply the MGE lens light model to 38 lenses from the HST SLACS sample. We find that the new scheme provides a good fit for the majority of the sample with only 3 exceptions -- these show clear asymmetric residuals in the lens light. We examine the radial dependence of the ellipticity and position angles and confirm that it is common for a typical lens galaxy to exhibit twisting, non-elliptical isophotes and boxy / disky isophotes. Our MGE lens light model will be a valuable tool for understanding the hidden complexity of the lens mass distribution., Comment: 22 pages, 15 figures. Submitted to MNRAS. Comments Welcome

Large-scale structure surveys have reported measurements of the density of matter, $\Omega_\mathrm{m}$, and the amplitude of clustering, $\sigma_8$, that are in tension with the values inferred from observations of the cosmic microwave background. While this may be a sign of new physics that slows the growth of structure at late times, strong astrophysical feedback processes could also be responsible. In this work, we argue that astrophysical processes are not independent of cosmology and that their coupling naturally leads to stronger baryonic feedback in cosmological models with suppressed structure formation or when combined with a mechanism that removes dark matter from halos. We illustrate this with two well-motivated extensions of the Standard Model known to suppress structure formation: massive neutrinos and decaying dark matter. Our results, based on the FLAMINGO suite of hydrodynamical simulations, show that the combined effect of baryonic and non-baryonic suppression mechanisms is greater than the sum of its parts, particularly for decaying dark matter. We also show that the dependence of baryonic feedback on cosmology can be modelled as a function of the ratio $f_\mathrm{b}/c^2_\mathrm{v}\sim f_\mathrm{b}/(\Omega_\mathrm{m}\sigma_8)^{1/4}$ of the universal baryon fraction, $f_\mathrm{b}$, to a velocity-based definition of halo concentration, $c^2_\mathrm{v}$, giving an accurate fitting formula for the baryonic suppression of the matter power spectrum. Although the combination of baryonic and non-baryonic suppression mechanisms can resolve the tension, the models with neutrinos and decaying dark matter are challenged by constraints on the expansion history., Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures, submitted to MNRAS

Recent observations from the EIGER JWST program have measured for the first time the quasar-galaxy cross-correlation function at $z\approx6$. The auto-correlation function of faint $z\approx6$ quasars was also recently estimated. These measurements provide key insights into the properties of quasars and galaxies at high redshift and their relation with the host dark matter halos. In this work, we interpret these data building upon an empirical quasar population model that has been applied successfully to quasar clustering and demographic measurements at $z\approx2-4$. We make use of a new, large-volume N-body simulation with more than a trillion particles, FLAMINGO-10k, to model quasars and galaxies simultaneously. We successfully reproduce observations of $z\approx6$ quasars and galaxies (i.e., their clustering properties and luminosity functions), and infer key quantities such as their luminosity-halo mass relation, the mass function of their host halos, and their duty cycle/occupation fraction. Our key findings are: (i) quasars reside on average in $\approx10^{12.4}\,{\rm M}_\odot$ halos (corresponding to $\approx5\sigma$ fluctuations in the initial conditions of the linear density field), but the distribution of host halo masses is quite broad; (ii) the duty cycle of (UV-bright) quasar activity is relatively low ($\lesssim1\%$); (iii) galaxies (that are bright in [OIII]) live in much smaller halos ($\approx10^{10.9}\,{\rm M}_\odot$) and have a larger duty cycle (occupation fraction) of $\approx20\%$. Finally, we focus on the inferred properties of quasars and present a homogeneous analysis of their evolution with redshift. The picture that emerges reveals a strong evolution of the host halo mass and duty cycle of quasars at $z\approx2-6$, and calls for new investigations of the role of quasar activity across cosmic time., Comment: Submitted to MNRAS; 15 pages, 4 figures

We expect luminous ($M_{1450}\lesssim-26.5$) high-redshift quasars to trace the highest density peaks in our universe, and therefore to reside in proto-clusters encompassing an abundance of galaxies in close vicinity. Here, we present observations of four $z\gtrsim6$ quasar fields using JWST/NIRCam in imaging and widefield slitless spectroscopy mode and report a wide range in the number of detected [OIII]-emitting galaxies in the quasars' environments, ranging between a density enhancement of $\delta>100$ within a $2$ cMpc radius - one of the largest proto-clusters during the Epoch of Reionization discovered to date - to a density contrast consistent with zero, indicating the presence of a UV-luminous quasar in a region comparable to the average density of the universe. By measuring the two-point cross-correlation function of quasars and their surrounding galaxies, as well as the galaxy auto-correlation function, we infer a correlation length of quasars at $\langle z\rangle=6.25$ of $r_0^{\rm QQ}=21.3^{+2.7}_{-2.6}~{\rm cMpc}\,h^{-1}$, while we obtain a correlation length of the [OIII]-emitting galaxies of $r_0^{\rm GG}=4.2\pm0.1~{\rm cMpc}\,h^{-1}$. By comparing the correlation functions to dark-matter-only simulations we estimate the minimum mass of the quasars' host dark matter halos to be $\log_{10}(M_{\rm halo, min}/M_\odot)=12.30\pm0.14$ (and $\log_{10}(M_{\rm halo, min}^{\rm [OIII]}/M_\odot) = 10.72\pm0.03$ for the [OIII]-emitters), indicating that (a) luminous quasars do not necessarily reside within the most overdense regions in the early universe, and that (b) the UV-luminous duty cycle of quasar activity at these redshifts is $f_{\rm duty}\ll1$. Such short quasar activity timescales challenge our understanding of early supermassive black hole growth and provide evidence for highly dust-obscured growth phases or episodic, radiatively inefficient accretion rates., Comment: Submitted to AAS Journals

The 21-cm spectral line widths, $w_{50}$, of galaxies are an approximate tracer of their dynamical masses, such that the dark matter halo mass function is imprinted in the number density of galaxies as a function of $w_{50}$. Correcting observed number counts for survey incompleteness at the level of accuracy needed to place competitive constraints on warm dark matter (WDM) cosmological models is very challenging, but forward-modelling the results of cosmological hydrodynamical galaxy formation simulations into observational data space is more straightforward. We take this approach to make predictions for an ALFALFA-like survey from simulations using the EAGLE galaxy formation model in both cold (CDM) and WDM cosmogonies. We find that for WDM cosmogonies more galaxies are detected at the low-$w_{50}$ end of the 21-cm velocity width function than in the CDM cosmogony, contrary to what might na\"ively be expected from the suppression of power on small scales in such models. This is because low-mass galaxies form later and retain more gas in WDM cosmogonies (with EAGLE). While some shortcomings in the treatment of cold gas in the EAGLE model preclude placing definitive constraints on WDM scenarios, our analysis illustrates that near-future simulations with more accurate modelling of cold gas will likely make strong constraints possible, especially in conjunction with new 21-cm surveys such as WALLABY., Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures. MNRAS accepted version

Weak gravitational lensing convergence peaks, the local maxima in weak lensing convergence maps, have been shown to contain valuable cosmological information complementary to commonly used two-point statistics. To exploit the full power of weak lensing for cosmology, we must model baryonic feedback processes because these reshape the matter distribution on non-linear and mildly non-linear scales. We study the impact of baryonic physics on the number density of weak lensing peaks using the FLAMINGO cosmological hydrodynamical simulation suite. We generate ray-traced full-sky convergence maps mimicking the characteristics of a Stage IV weak lensing survey. We compare the number densities of peaks in simulations that have been calibrated to reproduce the observed galaxy mass function and cluster gas fraction or to match a shifted version of these, and that use either thermally driven or jet AGN feedback. We show that the differences induced by realistic baryonic feedback prescriptions (typically $5 - 30\%$ for $\kappa = 0.1 - 0.4$) are smaller than those induced by reasonable variations in cosmological parameters ($20 - 60\%$ for $\kappa = 0.1 - 0.4$) but must be modeled carefully to obtain unbiased results. The reasons behind these differences can be understood by considering the impact of feedback on halo masses, or by considering the impact of different cosmological parameters on the halo mass function. Our analysis demonstrates that, for the range of models we investigated, the baryonic suppression is insensitive to changes in cosmology up to $\kappa \approx 0.4$ and that the higher $\kappa$ regime is dominated by Poisson noise and cosmic variance., Comment: 18 pages, 12 figures (including the appendix), Accepted for publication in MNRAS

Galaxy clusters are important probes for both cosmology and galaxy formation physics. We test the cosmological, hydrodynamical FLAMINGO simulations by comparing to observations of the gaseous properties of clusters measured from X-ray observations. FLAMINGO contains unprecedented numbers of massive galaxy groups ($>10^6$) and clusters ($>10^5$) and includes variations in both cosmology and galaxy formation physics. We predict the evolution of cluster scaling relations as well as radial profiles of the temperature, density, pressure, entropy, and metallicity for different masses and redshifts. We show that the differences between volume-, and X-ray-weighting of particles in the simulations, and between cool-core non cool-core samples, are similar in size as the differences between simulations for which the stellar and AGN feedback has been calibrated to produce significantly different gas fractions. Compared to thermally-driven AGN feedback, kinetic jet feedback calibrated to produce the same gas fraction at $R_{\rm 500c}$ yields a hotter core with higher entropies and lower densities, which translates into a smaller fraction of cool-core clusters. Stronger feedback, calibrated to produce lower gas fractions and hence lower gas densities, results in higher temperatures, entropies, and metallicities, but lower pressures. The scaling relations and thermodynamic profiles show almost no evolution with respect to self-similar expectations, except for the metallicity decreasing with redshift. We find that the temperature, density, pressure, and entropy profiles of clusters in the fiducial FLAMINGO simulation are in excellent agreement with observations, while the metallicities in the core are too high., Comment: 21 pages, 14 figures (including appendix). Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Moved Section 3 to Appendix A, new Section 3 compares scaling relations for different physics models. Added lower mass bin for physics model comparison of thermodynamic profiles. Conclusions unchanged

The splashback radius, coinciding with the minimum in the dark matter radial density gradient, is thought to be a universal definition of the edge of a dark matter halo. Observational methods to detect it have traced the dark matter using weak gravitational lensing or galaxy number counts. Recent attempts have also claimed the detection of a similar feature in Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) observations of the hot intracluster gas. Here, we use the FLAMINGO simulations to investigate whether an extremum gradient in a similar position to the splashback radius is predicted to occur in the cluster gas profiles. We find that the minimum in the gradient of the stacked 3D gas density and pressure profiles, and the maximum in the gradient of the entropy profile, broadly align with the splashback feature though there are significant differences. While the dark matter splashback radius varies with specific mass accretion rate, in agreement with previous work, the radial position of the deepest minimum in the log-slope of the gas density is more sensitive to halo mass. In addition, we show that a similar minimum is also present in projected 2D pseudo-observable profiles: emission measure (X-ray); Compton-$y$ (SZ) and surface mass density (weak lensing). We find that the latter traces the dark matter results reasonably well albeit the minimum occurs at a slightly smaller radius. While results for the gas profiles are largely insensitive to accretion rate and various observable proxies for dynamical state, they do depend on the strength of the feedback processes., Comment: Accepted by MNRAS

We use the Voids-within-Voids-within-Voids (VVV) simulations, a suite of successive nested N-body simulations with extremely high resolution (denoted, from low to high resolution, by L0 to L7), to test the Press-Schechter (PS), Sheth-Tormen (ST), and extended Press-Schechter (EPS) formulae for the halo abundance over the entire mass range, from mini-haloes of $10^{-6}\ \mathrm{M_\odot}$, to cluster haloes of $10^{15}\ \mathrm{M_\odot}$, at different redshifts, from $z=30$ to the present. We find that at $z=0$ and $z=2$, ST best reproduces the results of L0, which has the mean cosmic density (overdensity $\delta=0$), at $10^{11-15} ~\mathrm{M_\odot}$. The higher resolution levels (L1-L7) are biased underdense regions ($\delta<-0.6$). The EPS formalism takes this into account since it gives the mass function of a region conditioned, in this case, on having a given underdensity. EPS provides good matches to these higher levels, with deviations $\lesssim 20\%$, at $10^{-6-12.5} ~\mathrm{M_\odot}$. At $z \sim 7-15$, the ST predictions for L0 and the EPS for L1-L7 show somewhat larger deviations from the simulation results. However, at even higher redshifts, $z \sim 30$, EPS fits the simulations well again. We confirm our results by picking more subvolumes from the L0 simulation, finding that our conclusions depend only weakly on the size and overdensity of the region. The good agreement of EPS with the higher-level simulations implies that PS (or ST) gives an accurate description of the total halo mass function in representative regions of the universe., Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures (additional 2 figures in the appendix)

A number of recent studies have found evidence for a tension between observations of large-scale structure (LSS) and the predictions of the standard model of cosmology with the cosmological parameters fit to the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The origin of this '$S_8$ tension' remains unclear, but possibilities include new physics beyond the standard model, unaccounted for systematic errors in the observational measurements and/or uncertainties in the role that baryons play. Here we carefully examine the latter possibility using the new FLAMINGO suite of large-volume cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. We project the simulations onto observable harmonic space and compare with observational measurements of the power and cross-power spectra of cosmic shear, CMB lensing, and the thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) effect. We explore the dependence of the predictions on box size and resolution, cosmological parameters including the neutrino mass, and the efficiency and nature of baryonic 'feedback'. Despite the wide range of astrophysical behaviours simulated, we find that baryonic effects are not sufficiently large to remove the $S_8$ tension. Consistent with recent studies, we find the CMB lensing power spectrum is in excellent agreement with the standard model, whilst the cosmic shear power spectrum, tSZ effect power spectrum, and the cross-spectra between shear, CMB lensing, and the tSZ effect are all in varying degrees of tension with the CMB-specified standard model. These results suggest that some mechanism is required to slow the growth of fluctuations at late times and/or on non-linear scales, but that it is unlikely that baryon physics is driving this modification., Comment: 26 pages, 12 figures, MNRAS, accepted with minor revisions

Weak lensing of the cosmic microwave background is rapidly emerging as a powerful probe of neutrinos, dark energy, and new physics. We present a fast computation of the non-linear CMB lensing power spectrum which combines non-linear perturbation theory at early times with power spectrum emulation using cosmological simulations at late times. Comparing our calculation with lightcones from the FLAMINGO 5.6 Gpc cube dark-matter-only simulation, we confirm its accuracy to 1% (2%) up to multipoles L = 3000 (L = 5000) for a nuLambdaCDM cosmology consistent with current data. Clustering suppression due to small-scale baryonic phenomena such as feedback from active galactic nuclei can reduce the lensing power by of order 10%. To our perturbation theory and emulator-based calculation we add SP(k), a new fitting function for this suppression, and confirm its accuracy compared to the FLAMINGO hydrodynamic simulations to 4% at L = 5000, with similar accuracy for massive neutrino models. We further demonstrate that scale-dependent suppression due to neutrinos and baryons approximately factorize, implying that a careful treatment of baryonic feedback can limit biasing neutrino mass constraints., Comment: 14 pages, 21 figures, 1 table

The Cosmic Neutrino Background (CNB) encodes a wealth of information, but has not yet been observed directly. To determine the prospects of detection and to study its information content, we reconstruct the phase-space distribution of local relic neutrinos from the three-dimensional distribution of matter within 200 Mpc/h of the Milky Way. Our analysis relies on constrained realization simulations and forward modelling of the 2M++ galaxy catalogue. We find that the angular distribution of neutrinos is anti-correlated with the projected matter density, due to the capture and deflection of neutrinos by massive structures along the line of sight. Of relevance to tritium capture experiments, we find that the gravitational clustering effect of the large-scale structure on the local number density of neutrinos is more important than that of the Milky Way for neutrino masses less than 0.1 eV. Nevertheless, we predict that the density of relic neutrinos is close to the cosmic average, with a suppression or enhancement over the mean of (-0.3%, +7%, +27%) for masses of (0.01, 0.05, 0.1) eV. This implies no more than a marginal increase in the event rate for tritium capture experiments like PTOLEMY. We also predict that the CNB and CMB rest frames coincide for 0.01 eV neutrinos, but that neutrino velocities are significantly perturbed for masses larger than 0.05 eV. Regardless of mass, we find that the angle between the neutrino dipole and the ecliptic plane is small, implying a near-maximal annual modulation in the bulk velocity. Along with this paper, we publicly release our simulation data, comprising more than 100 simulations for six different neutrino masses., Comment: 27 pages, 8 figures, JCAP, accepted with minor revisions

The number density of extragalactic 21-cm radio sources as a function of their spectral line-widths -- the HI width function (HIWF) -- is a tracer of the dark matter halo mass function. The ALFALFA 21-cm survey measured the HIWF in northern and southern Galactic fields finding a systematically higher number density in the north; an asymmetry which is in tension with $\Lambda$ cold dark matter models which predicts the HIWF should be identical everywhere if sampled in sufficiently large volumes. We use the Sibelius-DARK N-body simulation and semi-analytical galaxy formation model GALFORM to create mock ALFALFA surveys to investigate survey systematics. We find the asymmetry has two origins: the sensitivity of the survey is different in the two fields, and the algorithm used for completeness corrections does not fully account for biases arising from spatial galaxy clustering. Once survey systematics are corrected, cosmological models can be tested against the HIWF., Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures. Accepted contribution to the proceedings for Dynamical Masses of Local Group Galaxies: IAU Symposium 379

Wide-area deep imaging surveys have discovered large numbers of extremely low surface brightness dwarf galaxies, which challenge galaxy formation theory and, potentially, offer new constraints on the nature of dark matter. Here we discuss one as-yet unexplored formation mechanism that may account for a fraction of low surface brightness dwarfs. We call this the `ghost galaxy' scenario. In this scenario, inefficient radiative cooling prevents star formation in the `main branch' of the merger tree of a low mass dark matter halo, such that almost all its stellar mass is acquired through mergers with less massive (but nevertheless star-forming) progenitors. Present-day systems formed in this way would be `ghostly' isolated stellar halos with no central galaxy. We use merger trees based on the Extended Press-Schechter formalism and the COCO cosmological N-body simulation to demonstrate that mass assembly histories of this kind can occur for low-mass halos in Lambda-CDM, but they are rare. They are most probable in isolated halos of present-day mass ~4x10^9 M_sun, occurring for ~5 per cent of all halos of that mass under standard assumptions about the timing and effect of cosmic reionization. The stellar masses of star-forming progenitors in these systems are highly uncertain; abundance-matching arguments imply a bimodal present-day mass function having a brighter population (median M_star ~3x10^6 M_sun) consistent with the tail of the observed luminosity function of ultra-diffuse galaxies. This suggests observable analogues of these systems may await discovery. We find that a stronger ionizing background (globally or locally) produces brighter and more extended ghost galaxies., Comment: 19 pages, 13 figures, ApJ in press

To fully take advantage of the data provided by large-scale structure surveys, we need to quantify the potential impact of baryonic effects, such as feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGN) and star formation, on cosmological observables. In simulations, feedback processes originate on scales that remain unresolved. Therefore, they need to be sourced via subgrid models that contain free parameters. We use machine learning to calibrate the AGN and stellar feedback models for the FLAMINGO cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. Using Gaussian process emulators trained on Latin hypercubes of 32 smaller-volume simulations, we model how the galaxy stellar mass function and cluster gas fractions change as a function of the subgrid parameters. The emulators are then fit to observational data, allowing for the inclusion of potential observational biases. We apply our method to the three different FLAMINGO resolutions, spanning a factor of 64 in particle mass, recovering the observed relations within the respective resolved mass ranges. We also use the emulators, which link changes in subgrid parameters to changes in observables, to find models that skirt or exceed the observationally allowed range for cluster gas fractions and the stellar mass function. Our method enables us to define model variations in terms of the data that they are calibrated to rather than the values of specific subgrid parameters. This approach is useful, because subgrid parameters are typically not directly linked to particular observables, and predictions for a specific observable are influenced by multiple subgrid parameters., Comment: 24 pages, 10 figures (Including the appendix). Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Minor changes w.r.t. version 1. For visualisations, see the FLAMINGO website at https://flamingo.strw.leidenuniv.nl/

We introduce the Virgo Consortium's FLAMINGO suite of hydrodynamical simulations for cosmology and galaxy cluster physics. To ensure the simulations are sufficiently realistic for studies of large-scale structure, the subgrid prescriptions for stellar and AGN feedback are calibrated to the observed low-redshift galaxy stellar mass function and cluster gas fractions. The calibration is performed using machine learning, separately for three resolutions. This approach enables specification of the model by the observables to which they are calibrated. The calibration accounts for a number of potential observational biases and for random errors in the observed stellar masses. The two most demanding simulations have box sizes of 1.0 and 2.8 Gpc and baryonic particle masses of $1\times10^8$ and $1\times10^9 \text{M}_\odot$, respectively. For the latter resolution the suite includes 12 model variations in a 1 Gpc box. There are 8 variations at fixed cosmology, including shifts in the stellar mass function and/or the cluster gas fractions to which we calibrate, and two alternative implementations of AGN feedback (thermal or jets). The remaining 4 variations use the unmodified calibration data but different cosmologies, including different neutrino masses. The 2.8 Gpc simulation follows $3\times10^{11}$ particles, making it the largest ever hydrodynamical simulation run to $z=0$. Lightcone output is produced on-the-fly for up to 8 different observers. We investigate numerical convergence, show that the simulations reproduce the calibration data, and compare with a number of galaxy, cluster, and large-scale structure observations, finding very good agreement with the data for converged predictions. Finally, by comparing hydrodynamical and `dark-matter-only' simulations, we confirm that baryonic effects can suppress the halo mass function and the matter power spectrum by up to $\approx20$ per cent., Comment: 44 pages, 23 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS. V3 includes changes made in published version: jet simulations were redone to fix a bug, but the differences are nearly invisible. For visualizations, see the FLAMINGO website at https://flamingo.strw.leidenuniv.nl/

We take advantage of the unprecedented dynamical range provided by the "Cosmic-Zoom" project to study the mass accretion history (MAH) of present-day dark matter haloes over the entire mass range present in the $\Lambda$CDM paradigm when the dark matter is made of weakly interacting massive particles of mass $100\ \mathrm{GeV}$. In particular, we complement previous studies by exploring the MAHs of haloes with mass from $10^8\ h^{-1}\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ down to Earth mass, $10^{-6}\ h^{-1}\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$. The formation redshift of low-mass haloes anti-correlates weakly with mass, peaking at $z=3$ for haloes of mass $10^{-4}\ h^{-1}\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$. Even lower masses are affected by the free-streaming cutoff in the primordial spectrum of density fluctuations and form at lower redshift. We compare MAHs in our simulations with predictions from two analytical models based on the extended Press-Schechter theory (EPS), and three empirical models derived by fitting and extrapolating either results from cosmological $N$-body simulations or Monte Carlo realizations of halo growth. All models fit our simulations reasonably well over the mass range for which they were calibrated. While the empirical models match better for more massive haloes, $M>10^{10}\ h^{-1}\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$, the analytical models do better when extrapolated down to Earth mass. At the higher masses, we explore the correlation between local environment density and MAH, finding that biases are relatively weak, with typical MAHs for haloes in extremely low-density and in typical regions differing by less than $20$ percent at high redshift. We conclude that EPS theory predicts the hierarchical build-up of dark matter haloes quite well over the entire mass range.

We study the effect of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) on the dark matter (DM) distribution in the Solar neighborhood, utilizing the Auriga magneto-hydrodynamical simulations of Milky Way (MW) analogues that have an LMC-like system. We extract the local DM velocity distribution at different times during the orbit of the LMC around the MW in the simulations. As found in previous idealized simulations of the MW-LMC system, we find that the DM particles in the Solar neighborhood originating from the LMC analogue dominate the high speed tail of the local DM speed distribution. Furthermore, the native DM particles of the MW in the Solar region are boosted to higher speeds as a result of a response to the LMC's motion. We simulate the signals expected in near future xenon, germanium, and silicon direct detection experiments, considering DM interactions with target nuclei or electrons. We find that the presence of the LMC causes a considerable shift in the expected direct detection exclusion limits towards smaller cross sections and DM masses, with the effect being more prominent for low mass DM. Hence, our study shows, for the first time, that the LMC's influence on the local DM distribution is significant even in fully cosmological MW analogues., Comment: 35 pages, 14 figures, 3 tables, JCAP accepted version

The distribution of mass in galaxy-scale strong gravitational lenses is often modelled as an elliptical power law plus 'external shear', which notionally accounts for neighbouring galaxies and cosmic shear. We show that it does not. Except in a handful of rare systems, the best-fit values of external shear do not correlate with independent measurements of shear: from weak lensing in 45 Hubble Space Telescope images, or in 50 mock images of lenses with complex distributions of mass. Instead, the best-fit shear is aligned with the major or minor axis of 88% of lens galaxies; and the amplitude of the external shear increases if that galaxy is disky. We conclude that 'external shear' attached to a power law model is not physically meaningful, but a fudge to compensate for lack of model complexity. Since it biases other model parameters that are interpreted as physically meaningful in several science analyses (e.g. measuring galaxy evolution, dark matter physics or cosmological parameters), we recommend that future studies of galaxy-scale strong lensing should employ more flexible mass models., Comment: 13 pages, 11 figures, submitted to MNRAS and Review Response Submitted

The number density of extragalactic 21-cm radio sources as a function of their spectral line-widths -- the HI width function (HIWF) -- is a sensitive tracer of the dark matter halo mass function (HMF). The $\Lambda$ cold dark matter model predicts that the HMF should be identical everywhere provided it is sampled in sufficiently large volumes, implying that the same should be true of the HIWF. The ALFALFA 21-cm survey measured the HIWF in northern and southern Galactic fields and found a systematically higher number density in the north. At face value, this is in tension with theoretical predictions. We use the Sibelius-DARK N-body simulation and the semi-analytical galaxy formation model GALFORM to create a mock ALFALFA survey. We find that the offset in number density has two origins: the sensitivity of the survey is different in the two fields, which has not been correctly accounted for in previous measurements; and the $1/V_{\mathrm{eff}}$ algorithm used for completeness corrections does not fully account for biases arising from spatial clustering in the galaxy distribution. The latter is primarily driven by a foreground overdensity in the northern field within $30\,\mathrm{Mpc}$, but more distant structure also plays a role. We provide updated measurements of the ALFALFA HIWF (and HIMF) correcting for the variations in survey sensitivity. Only when systematic effects such as these are understood and corrected for can cosmological models be tested against the HIWF., Comment: MNRAS accepted

The cold dark matter (DM) model predicts that every galaxy contains thousands of DM subhalos; almost all other DM models include a physical process that smooths away the subhalos. The subhalos are invisible, but could be detected via strong gravitational lensing, if they lie on the line of sight to a multiply-imaged background source, and perturb its apparent shape. We present a predominantly automated strong lens analysis framework, and scan for DM subhalos in Hubble Space Telescope imaging of 54 strong lenses. We identify five DM subhalo candidates, including two especially compelling candidates (one previously known in SLACS0946+1006) where a subhalo is favoured after all of our tests for systematics. We find that the detectability of subhalos depends upon the assumed parametric form for the lens galaxy's mass distribution, especially its degree of azimuthal freedom. Using separate components for dark matter and stellar mass reveals two DM subhalo candidates and removes four false-positives compared to the single power-law mass model that is common in the literature. We identify 45 lenses without substructures, the number of which is key to statistical tests able to rule out models of e.g. warm or self-interacting DM. Our full analysis results are available at https://github.com/Jammy2211/autolens_subhalo., Comment: 25 Pages, 15 Figures

Over the next five years, the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will use 10 spectrographs with 5000 fibers on the 4m Mayall Telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory to conduct the first Stage-IV dark energy galaxy survey. At $z < 0.6$, the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS) will produce the most detailed map of the Universe during the dark energy dominated epoch with redshifts of >10 million galaxies over 14,000 deg$^2$. In this work, we present and validate the final BGS target selection and survey design. From the Legacy Surveys, BGS will target a $r < 19.5$ magnitude-limited sample (BGS Bright); a fainter $19.5 < r < 20.175$ sample, color-selected to have high redshift efficiency (BGS Faint); and a smaller low-z quasar sample. BGS will observe these targets using exposure times, scaled to achieve uniform completeness, and visit each point on the footprint three times. We use observations from the Survey Validation programs conducted prior to the main survey along with realistic simulations to show that BGS can complete its strategy and make optimal use of `bright' time. We demonstrate that BGS targets have stellar contamination <1% and that their densities do not depend strongly on imaging properties. We also confirm that BGS Bright will achieve >80% fiber assignment efficiency. Finally, we show that BGS Bright and Faint will achieve >95% redshift success rates with no significant dependence on observing conditions. BGS meets the requirements for an extensive range of scientific applications. BGS will yield the most precise Baryon Acoustic Oscillations and Redshift-Space Distortions measurements at $z < 0.4$. It also presents opportunities to exploit new methods that require highly complete and dense galaxy samples (e.g. N-point statistics, multi-tracers). BGS further provides a powerful tool to study galaxy populations and the relations between galaxies and dark matter., Comment: AJ, submitted, 34 pages, 22 figures, one of a suite of 8 papers detailing targeting for DESI

Observations suggest that the dark matter and stars in early-type galaxies `conspire' to produce a surprisingly simple distribution of total mass, $\rho(r)\propto\rho^{-\gamma}$, with $\gamma\approx2$. We measure the distribution of mass in 48 early-type galaxies that gravitationally lens a resolved background source. By fitting the source light in every pixel of images from the Hubble Space Telescope, we find a mean $\langle\gamma\rangle=2.075_{-0.024}^{+0.023}$ with intrinsic scatter between galaxies of $\sigma_\gamma=0.172^{+0.022}_{-0.032}$ for the overall sample. This is consistent with, and has similar precision to traditional techniques that employ spectroscopic observations to supplement lensing with mass estimates from stellar dynamics. Comparing measurements of $\gamma$ for individual lenses using both techniques, we find a statistically insignificant correlation of $-0.150^{+0.223}_{-0.217}$ between the two, indicating a lack of statistical power or deviations from a power-law density in certain lenses. At fixed surface mass density, we measure a redshift dependence, $\partial\langle\gamma\rangle/\partial z=0.345^{+0.322}_{-0.296}$, that is consistent with traditional techniques for the same sample of SLACS and GALLERY lenses. Interestingly, the consistency breaks down when we measure the dependence of $\gamma$ on the surface mass density of a lens galaxy. We argue that this is tentative evidence for an inflection point in the total-mass density profile at a few times the galaxy effective radius -- breaking the conspiracy., Comment: 14 pages, 11 figures, 5 tables, submitted to MNRAS

We study the impact of the dark matter velocity distribution modelling on signals from velocity-dependent dark matter annihilation in Milky Way dwarf spheroidal galaxies. Using the high resolution APOSTLE simulations, we identify analogues corresponding to Milky Way dwarf spheroidal galaxies, and from these directly determine the dark matter pair-wise relative velocity distribution, and compare to best-fitting Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution models. For three velocity-dependent annihilation models, p-wave, d-wave, and the Sommerfeld model, we quantify the errors introduced when using the Maxwell-Boltzmann parameterization. We extract a simple power-law relation between the maximum circular velocity of the dwarf spheroidal analogue and the peak speed of the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution. We show that this relation can be used to accurately calculate the dark matter relative velocity distribution, and find that it allows us to estimate the dark matter annihilation signal without the need to directly calculate the relative velocity distribution for each galaxy. The scatter in the J-factors calculated from the analogues dominates the uncertainty obtained when compared to the J-factor as determined from the observational data for each dwarf spheroidal, with the largest scatter from d-wave models and the smallest from Sommerfeld models., Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables

The planar distributions of satellite galaxies around the Milky Way and Andromeda have been extensively studied as potential challenges to the standard cosmological model. Using the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and the Millennium simulation we extend such studies to the satellite galaxies of massive galaxy clusters. We find that both observations and simulations of galaxy clusters show an excess of anisotropic satellite distributions. On average, satellites in clusters have a higher degree of anisotropy than their counterparts in Milky-Way-mass hosts once we account for the difference in their radial distributions. The normal vector of the plane of satellites is strongly aligned with the host halo's minor axis, while the alignment with the large-scale structure is weak. At fixed cluster mass, the degree of anisotropy is higher at higher redshift. This reflects the highly anisotropic nature of satellites accretion points, a feature that is partly erased by the subsequent orbital evolution of the satellites. We also find that satellite galaxies are mostly accreted singly so group accretion is not the explanation for the high flattening of the planes of satellites.

The "plane of satellites problem" describes the arrangement of the Milky Way's 11 brightest satellite galaxies in a remarkably thin plane, possibly supported by rotation. This is in apparent contradiction to the standard cosmological model, wherein the Galaxy is surrounded by a dispersion-supported dark matter halo. Here, we show that the reported exceptional anisotropy of the satellite system is strongly contingent on a lopsided radial distribution, which earlier simulations have failed to reproduce, combined with the close but fleeting conjunction of the two most distant satellites, Leo I and Leo II. Using Gaia proper motions, we show that the orbital pole alignment is much more common than previously reported, and reveal the plane of satellites to be transient rather than rotationally supported. Comparing to new simulations, where such short-lived planes are common, we find the Milky Way satellites to be compatible with standard model expectations.

We present predictions, derived from the EAGLE LCDM cosmological hydrodynamical simulations, for the abundance and properties of galaxies expected to be detected at high redshift by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). We consider the galaxy population as a whole and focus on the sub-population of progenitors of Milky Way (MW) analogues, defined to be galaxies with accretion histories similar to the MW's, that is, galaxies that underwent a merger resembling the Gaia-Enceladus-Sausage (GES) event and that contain an analogue of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) satellite today. We derive the luminosity function of all EAGLE galaxies in JWST NIRCam passbands, in the redshift range z=2-8, taking into account dust obscuration and different exposure times. For an exposure time of $T=10^5$s, average MW progenitors are observable as far back as z~6 in most bands, and this changes to z~5 and z~4 for the GES and LMC progenitors, respectively. The progenitors of GES and LMC analogues are, on average, ~2 and ~1 mag fainter than the MW progenitors at most redshifts. They lie, on average, within ~60 and ~30 arcsec, respectively, of their future MW host at all times, and thus will appear within the field-of-view of JWST NIRCam. We conclude that galaxies resembling the main progenitor of the MW and its major accreted components should be observable with JWST beyond redshift 2, providing a new and unique window in studying the formation history of our own galaxy., Comment: 17 page, 16 figures. Published in MNRAS

We use $\Lambda$CDM cosmological hydrodynamical simulations to explore the kinematics of gaseous discs in late-type dwarf galaxies. We create high-resolution 21-cm 'observations' of simulated dwarfs produced in two variations of the EAGLE galaxy formation model: one where supernova-driven gas flows redistribute dark matter and form constant-density central 'cores', and another where the central 'cusps' survive intact. We 'observe' each galaxy along multiple sight lines and derive a rotation curve for each observation using a conventional tilted-ring approach to model the gas kinematics. We find that the modelling process introduces systematic discrepancies between the recovered rotation curve and the actual circular velocity curve driven primarily by (i) non-circular gas orbits within the discs; (ii) the finite thickness of gaseous discs, which leads to overlap of different radii in projection; and (iii) departures from dynamical equilibrium. Dwarfs with dark matter cusps often appear to have a core, whilst the inverse error is less common. These effects naturally reproduce an observed trend which other models struggle to explain: late-type dwarfs with more steeply-rising rotation curves appear to be dark matter-dominated in the inner regions, whereas the opposite seems to hold in galaxies with core-like rotation curves. We conclude that if similar effects affect the rotation curves of observed dwarfs, a late-type dwarf population in which all galaxies have sizeable dark matter cores is most likely incompatible with current measurements., Comment: 21 pages, 13 figures, 1 table. Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Appendices included as ancillary file

We use the suite of Milky Way-like galaxies in the Auriga simulations to determine the contribution to annihilation radiation from dark matter subhalos in three velocity-dependent dark matter annihilation models: Sommerfeld, p-wave, and d-wave models. We compare these to the corresponding distribution in the velocity-independent s-wave annihilation model. For both the hydrodynamical and dark-matter-only simulations, only in the case of the Sommerfeld-enhanced annihilation does the total annihilation flux from subhalos exceed the total annihilation flux from the smooth halo component within the virial radius of the halo. Progressing from Sommerfeld to the s, p, and d-wave models, the contribution from the smooth component of the halo becomes more dominant, implying that for the p-wave and d-wave models the smooth component is by far the dominant contribution to the radiation. Comparing to the Galactic center excess observed by Fermi-LAT, for all simulated halos the emission is dominated by the smooth halo contribution. However, it is possible that for Sommerfeld models, extrapolation down to mass scales below the current resolution limit of the simulation would imply a non-negligible contribution to the gamma-ray emission from the Galactic Center region., Comment: 18 pages, 8 figures, 1 table

In Galaxy And Mass Assembly Data Release 4 (GAMA DR4), we make available our full spectroscopic redshift sample. This includes 248682 galaxy spectra, and, in combination with earlier surveys, results in 330542 redshifts across five sky regions covering ~250deg^2. The redshift density, is the highest available over such a sustained area, has exceptionally high completeness (95 per cent to r_KIDS=19.65mag), and is well suited for the study of galaxy mergers, galaxy groups, and the low redshift (z<0.25) galaxy population. DR4 includes 32 value-added tables or Data Management Units (DMUs) that provide a number of measured and derived data products including GALEX, ESO KiDS, ESO VIKING, WISE and Herschel Space Observatory imaging. Within this release, we provide visual morphologies for 15330 galaxies to z<0.08, photometric redshift estimates for all 18million objects to r_KIDS~25mag, and stellar velocity dispersions for 111830 galaxies. We conclude by deriving the total galaxy stellar mass function (GSMF) and its sub-division by morphological class (elliptical, compact-bulge and disc, diffuse-bulge and disc, and disc only). This extends our previous measurement of the total GSMF down to 10^6.75 M_sol h^-2_70 and we find a total stellar mass density of rho_*=(2.97+/-0.04)x10^8 M_sol h_70 Mpc^-3 or Omega_*=(2.17+/-0.03)x10^-3 h^-1_70. We conclude that at z<0.1, the Universe has converted 4.9+/-0.1 per cent of the baryonic mass implied by Big Bang Nucleosynthesis into stars that are gravitationally bound within the galaxy population., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. GAMA Data Release 4 is available at: http://www.gama-survey.org/dr4/

Strong gravitational lensing offers a compelling test of the cold dark matter paradigm, as it allows for subhaloes with masses of $\sim10^{9}$ M$_\odot$ and below to be detected. We test commonly-used techniques for detecting subhaloes superposed in images of strongly lensed galaxies. For the lens we take a simulated galaxy in a $\sim10^{13}$ M$_\odot$ halo grown in a high-resolution cosmological hydrodynamical simulation, which we view from two different directions. Though the resolution is high, we note the simulated galaxy still has an artificial core which adds additional complexity to the baryon dominated region. To remove particle noise, we represent the projected galaxy mass distribution by a series of Gaussian profiles which precisely capture the features of the projected galaxy. We first model the lens mass as a (broken) power-law density profile and then search for small haloes. Of the two projections, one has a regular elliptical shape, while the other has distinct deviations from an elliptical shape. For the former, the broken power-law model gives no false positives and correctly recovers the mass of the superposed small halo, but for the latter we find false positives and the inferred halo mass is overestimated by $\sim4-5$ times. We then use a more complex model in which the lens mass is decomposed into stellar and dark matter components. In this case, we show that we can capture the simulated galaxy's complex projected structures and correctly infer the input small halo., Comment: Accepted by MNRAS. Comments welcome!

The distribution of dark and luminous matter can be mapped around galaxies that gravitationally lens background objects into arcs or Einstein rings. New surveys will soon observe hundreds of thousands of galaxy lenses, and current, labour-intensive analysis methods will not scale up to this challenge. We instead develop a fully automatic, Bayesian method which we use to fit a sample of 59 lenses imaged by the Hubble Space Telescope in uniform conditions. We set out to \textit{leave no lens behind} and focus on ways in which automated fits fail in a small handful of lenses, describing adjustments to the pipeline that allows us to infer accurate lens models. Our pipeline ultimately fits {\em all} 59 lenses in our sample, with a high success rate key because catastrophic outliers would bias large samples with small statistical errors. Machine Learning techniques might further improve the two most difficult steps: subtracting foreground lens light and initialising a first, approximate lens model. After that, increasing model complexity is straightforward. We find a mean $\sim1\%$ measurement precision on the measurement of the Einstein radius across the lens sample which {\em does not degrade with redshift} up to at least $z=0.7$ -- in stark contrast to other techniques used to study galaxy evolution, like stellar dynamics. Our \texttt{PyAutoLens} software is open source, and is also installed in the Science Data Centres of the ESA Euclid mission., Comment: 23 pages, 20 figures, 5 tables. Submitted to MNRAS

We present SIBELIUS-DARK, a constrained realisation simulation of the local volume to a distance of 200~Mpc from the Milky Way. SIBELIUS-DARK is the first study of the \textit{Simulations Beyond The Local Universe} (SIBELIUS) project, which has the goal of embedding a model Local Group-like system within the correct cosmic environment. The simulation is dark-matter-only, with the galaxy population calculated using the semi-analytic model of galaxy formation, GALFORM. We demonstrate that the large-scale structure that emerges from the SIBELIUS constrained initial conditions matches well the observational data. The inferred galaxy population of SIBELIUS-DARK also match well the observational data, both statistically for the whole volume and on an object-by-object basis for the most massive clusters. For example, the $K$-band number counts across the whole sky, and when divided between the northern and southern Galactic hemispheres, are well reproduced by SIBELIUS-DARK. We find that the local volume is somewhat unusual in the wider context of $\Lambda$CDM: it contains an abnormally high number of supermassive clusters, as well as an overall large-scale underdensity at the level of $\approx 5$\% relative to the cosmic mean. However, whilst rare, the extent of these peculiarities does not significantly challenge the $\Lambda$CDM model. SIBELIUS-DARK is the most comprehensive constrained realisation simulation of the local volume to date, and with this paper we publicly release the halo and galaxy catalogues at $z=0$, which we hope will be useful to the wider astronomy community., Comment: 26 pages, 19 figures. Paper as been accepted for publication in MNRAS. Comments welcome

The discovery that neutrinos have mass has important consequences for cosmology. The main effect of massive neutrinos is to suppress the growth of cosmic structure on small scales. Such growth can be accurately modelled using cosmological $N$-body simulations, but doing so requires accurate initial conditions (ICs). There is a trade-off, especially with first-order ICs, between truncation errors for late starts and discreteness and relativistic errors for early starts. Errors can be minimized by starting simulations at late times using higher-order ICs. In this paper, we show that neutrino effects can be absorbed into scale-independent coefficients in higher-order Lagrangian perturbation theory (LPT). This clears the way for the use of higher-order ICs for massive neutrino simulations. We demonstrate that going to higher order substantially improves the accuracy of simulations. To match the sensitivity of surveys like DESI and Euclid, errors in the matter power spectrum should be well below 1%. However, we find that first-order Zel'dovich ICs lead to much larger errors, even when starting as early as $z=127$, exceeding 1% at $z=0$ for $k>0.5\text{ Mpc}^{-1}$ for the power spectrum and $k>0.1\text{ Mpc}^{-1}$ for the equilateral bispectrum in our simulations. Ratios of power spectra with different neutrino masses are more robust than absolute statistics, but still depend on the choice of ICs. For all statistics considered, we obtain 1% agreement between 2LPT and 3LPT at $z=0$., Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures, with link to software, minor update of version submitted to MNRAS

We introduce a multi-component chemo-dynamical method for splitting the Galactic population of Globular Clusters (GCs) into three distinct constituents: bulge, disc, and stellar halo. The latter is further decomposed into the individual large accretion events that built up the Galactic stellar halo: the Gaia-Enceladus-Sausage, Kraken and Sequoia structures, and the Sagittarius and Helmi streams. Our modelling is extensively tested using mock GC samples constructed from the AURIGA suite of hydrodynamical simulations of Milky Way (MW)-like galaxies. We find that, on average, a proportion of the accreted GCs cannot be associated with their true infall group and are left ungrouped, biasing our recovered population numbers to approximately 80 percent of their true value. Furthermore, the identified groups have a completeness and a purity of only 65 percent. This reflects the difficulty of the problem, a result of the large degree of overlap in energy-action space of the debris from past accretion events. We apply the method to the Galactic data to infer, in a statistically robust and easily quantifiable way, the GCs associated with each MW accretion event. The resulting groups' population numbers of GCs, corrected for biases, are then used to infer the halo and stellar masses of the now defunct satellites that built up the halo of the MW., Comment: 18 pages, 11 figures, + Appendices

The elliptical power-law (EPL) model of the mass in a galaxy is widely used in strong gravitational lensing analyses. However, the distribution of mass in real galaxies is more complex. We quantify the biases due to this model mismatch by simulating and then analysing mock {\it Hubble Space Telescope} imaging of lenses with mass distributions inferred from SDSS-MaNGA stellar dynamics data. We find accurate recovery of source galaxy morphology, except for a slight tendency to infer sources to be more compact than their true size. The Einstein radius of the lens is also robustly recovered with 0.1% accuracy, as is the global density slope, with 2.5% relative systematic error, compared to the 3.4% intrinsic dispersion. However, asymmetry in real lenses also leads to a spurious fitted `external shear' with typical strength, $\gamma_{\rm ext}=0.015$. Furthermore, time delays inferred from lens modelling without measurements of stellar dynamics are typically underestimated by $\sim$5%. Using such measurements from a sub-sample of 37 lenses would bias measurements of the Hubble constant $H_0$ by $\sim$9%. Although this work is based on a particular set of MaNGA galaxies, and the specific value of the detected biases may change for another set of strong lenses, our results strongly suggest the next generation cosmography needs to use more complex lens mass models., Comment: Accepted by RAA; Fix a few typos, add some references

We use N-body cosmological simulations and empirical galaxy models to study the merger history of dwarf-mass galaxies (with M_halo~10^10 M_Sun). Our input galaxy models describe the stellar mass-halo mass relation, and the galaxy occupation fraction. The number of major and minor mergers depends on the type of dark matter; in particular, minor mergers are greatly suppressed in warm dark matter models. In addition, the number of mergers that bring in stars is strongly dependent on the galaxy occupation model. For example, minor mergers are negligible for stellar halo growth in models with a high mass threshold for galaxy formation (i.e. 10^9.3 M_Sun at z=0). Moreover, this threshold for galaxy formation can also determine the relative difference (if any) between the stellar haloes of satellite and field dwarfs. Using isolated simulations of dwarf-dwarf mergers, we show that the relative frequency of major and minor mergers predict very different stellar haloes: Typically, "intermediate" dark matter merger ratios (~1:5) maximise the growth of distant stellar haloes. We discuss the observability of dwarf stellar haloes and find that the surface brightness of these features are incredibly faint. However, when several dwarfs are stacked together models that form particularly rich stellar haloes could be detectable. Finally, we show that stellar streams in the Galactic halo overlapping in phase-space with known dwarf satellites are likely remnants of their stripped stellar haloes. The mere existence of dwarf stellar haloes can already put constraints on some small-scale models, and thus observational probes should be a high priority., Comment: 16 pages, 12 figures. Accepted by MNRAS

We rederive the number density of intervening line-of-sight haloes relative to lens subhaloes in galaxy-galaxy strong lensing observations, where these perturbers can generate detectable image fluctuations. Previous studies have calculated the detection limit of a line-of-sight small-mass dark halo by comparing the lensing deflection angles it would cause, to those caused by a subhalo within the lens. However, this overly simplifies the difference in observational consequences between a subhalo and a line-of-sight halo. Furthermore, it does not take into account degeneracies between an extra subhalo and the uncertain properties of the main lens. More in keeping with analyses of real-world observations, we regard a line-of-sight halo as detectable only if adding it to a smooth model generates a statistically significant improvement in the reconstructed image. We find that the number density of detectable line-of-sight perturbers has been overestimated by as much as a factor of two in the previous literature. For typical lensing geometries and configurations, very deep imaging is sensitive to twice as many line-of-sight perturbers as subhaloes, but moderate depth imaging is sensitive to only slightly more line-of-sight perturbers than subhaloes., Comment: Accepted by MNRAS. Comments welcome

In the standard disk galaxy formation model, the sizes of galactic disks are tightly related to the spin parameters $\lambda$ of their dark matter haloes. The model has been wildly adopted by various semi-analytic galaxy formation models which have been extremely successful to interpret a large body of observational data. However, the size-$\lambda$ correlation was rarely seen in most modern hydrodynamical simulations of galaxy formation. In this short paper, we make use of 4 sets of large hydrodynamical simulations to explore the size-spin parameter relation with a large sample of simulated disk galaxies, and compare it with a popular disk galaxy formation model of Mo et al. (1998). Intriguingly, galactic sizes correlate strongly with spin parameters of their dark matter haloes in the simulations developed by the IllustrisTNG collaborations, albeit the relation does not always agree with prediction of MMW98 model over all stellar mass range we examined. There is also a size-spin correlation for the Milky way analogies in the EAGLE simulations, while it is relatively weaker than that of the IllustrisTNG counterparts. For the dwarfs in the simulations from the EAGLE collaboration, there is NULL correlation. We conclude that either the detailed subgrid physics or hydrodynamics solvers account for the size-spin relation, which will be explored in our future work.

A defining prediction of the cold dark matter (CDM) cosmological model is the existence of a very large population of low-mass haloes. This population is absent in models in which the dark matter particle is warm (WDM). These alternatives can, in principle, be distinguished observationally because halos along the line-of-sight can perturb galaxy-galaxy strong gravitational lenses. Furthermore, the WDM particle mass could be deduced because the cut-off in their halo mass function depends on the mass of the particle. We systematically explore the detectability of low-mass haloes in WDM models by simulating and fitting mock lensed images. Contrary to previous studies, we find that halos are harder to detect when they are either behind or in front of the lens. Furthermore, we find that the perturbing effect of haloes increases with their concentration: detectable haloes are systematically high-concentration haloes, and accounting for the scatter in the mass-concentration relation boosts the expected number of detections by as much as an order of magnitude. Haloes have lower concentration for lower particle masses and this further suppresses the number of detectable haloes beyond the reduction arising from the lower halo abundances alone. Taking these effects into account can make lensing constraints on the value of the mass function cut-off at least an order of magnitude more stringent than previously appreciated., Comment: MNRAS submitted. Comments welcome

Gas cooling and accretion in haloes delivers mass and angular momentum onto galaxies. In this work, we investigate the accuracy of the modelling of this important process in several different semi-analytic (SA) galaxy formation models (GALFORM, L-GALAXIES and MORGANA) through comparisons with a hydrodynamical simulation performed with the moving-mesh code AREPO. Both SA models and the simulation were run without any feedback or metal enrichment, in order to focus on the cooling and accretion process. All of the SA models considered here assume that gas cools from a spherical halo. We found that the assumption that the gas conserves its angular momentum when moving from the virial radius, $r_{\rm vir}$, to the central region of the halo, $r\sim 0.1 r_{\rm vir}$, is approximately consistent with the results from our simulation, in which gas typically retains $70-80\%$ of its angular momentum during this process. We also found that, compared to the simulation, the MORGANA model tends to overestimate the mean specific angular momentum of cooled-down gas, the L-GALAXIES model also tends to overestimate this in low-redshift massive haloes, while the two older GALFORM models tend to underestimate the angular momentum. In general, the predictions of the new GALFORM cooling model developed by Hou et al. agree the best with the simulation., Comment: Accepted for publication on MNRAS

Modern hydrodynamical simulations reproduce many properties of the real universe. These simulations model various physical processes, but many of these are included using `subgrid models' due to resolution limits. Although different subgrid models have been successful in modelling the effects of supernovae (SNe) feedback on galactic properties, it remains unclear if, and by how much, these differing implementations affect observable halo gas properties. In this work, we use `zoom-in' cosmological initial conditions of two volumes selected to resemble the Local Group (LG) evolved with both the Auriga and EAGLE galaxy formation models. While the subgrid physics models in both simulations reproduce realistic stellar components of $L^\star$ galaxies, they exhibit different gas properties. Namely, Auriga predicts that the Milky Way (MW) is almost baryonically closed, whereas EAGLE suggests that only half of the expected baryons reside within the halo. Furthermore, EAGLE predicts that this baryon deficiency extends to the LG, ($r \leq 1 \mathrm{~Mpc}$). The baryon deficiency in EAGLE is likely due to SNe feedback at high redshift, which generates halo-wide outflows, with high covering fractions and radial velocities, which both eject baryons and significantly impede cosmic gas accretion. Conversely, in Auriga, gas accretion is almost unaffected by feedback. These differences appear to be the result of the different energy injection methods from SNe to gas. Our results suggest that both quasar absorption lines and fast radio burst dispersion measures could constrain these two regimes with future observations., Comment: 22 pages, 17 figures + 2 pages of references and appendices. Submitted to MNRAS

Strong gravitational lensing, which can make a background source galaxy appears multiple times due to its light rays being deflected by the mass of one or more foreground lens galaxies, provides astronomers with a powerful tool to study dark matter, cosmology and the most distant Universe. PyAutoLens is an open-source Python 3.6+ package for strong gravitational lensing, with core features including fully automated strong lens modeling of galaxies and galaxy clusters, support for direct imaging and interferometer datasets and comprehensive tools for simulating samples of strong lenses. The API allows users to perform ray-tracing by using analytic light and mass profiles to build strong lens systems. Accompanying PyAutoLens is the autolens workspace (see https://github.com/Jammy2211/autolens_workspace), which includes example scripts, lens datasets and the HowToLens lectures in Jupyter notebook format which introduce non experts to strong lensing using PyAutoLens. Readers can try PyAutoLens right now by going to the introduction Jupyter notebook on Binder (see https://mybinder.org/v2/gh/Jammy2211/autolens_workspace/master) or checkout the readthedocs (see https://pyautolens.readthedocs.io/en/latest/) for a complete overview of PyAutoLens's features., Comment: 2 pages, 1 figure

We compare the star-forming properties of satellites around Milky Way (MW) analogs from the Stage~II release of the Satellites Around Galactic Analogs Survey (SAGA-II) to those from the APOSTLE and Auriga cosmological zoom-in simulation suites. We use archival GALEX UV imaging as a star-formation indicator for the SAGA-II sample and derive star-formation rates (SFRs) to compare with those from APOSTLE and Auriga. We compare our detection rates from the NUV and FUV bands to the SAGA-II H$\alpha$ detections and find that they are broadly consistent with over $85\%$ of observed satellites detected in all three tracers. We apply the same spatial selection criteria used around SAGA-II hosts to select satellites around the MW-like hosts in APOSTLE and Auriga. We find very good overall agreement in the derived SFRs for the star-forming satellites as well as the number of star-forming satellites per host in observed and simulated samples. However, the number and fraction of quenched satellites in the SAGA-II sample are significantly lower than those in APOSTLE and Auriga below a stellar mass of $M_*\sim10^{8}\,M_{\odot}$, even when the SAGA-II incompleteness and interloper corrections are included. This discrepancy is robust with respect to the resolution of the simulations and persists when alternative star-formation tracers are employed. We posit that this disagreement is not readily explained by vagaries in the observed or simulated samples considered here, suggesting a genuine discrepancy that may inform the physics of satellite populations around MW analogs., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ Letters after minor changes to text