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Stordalen Mire is a peatland in the discontinuous permafrost zone in arctic Sweden that exhibits a habitat gradient from permafrost palsa, to Sphagnum bog underlain by permafrost, to Eriophorum-dominated fully thawed fen. We used three independent approaches to evaluate the annual, multi-decadal, and millennial apparent carbon accumulation rates (aCAR) across this gradient: seven years of direct semi-continuous measurement of CO2 and CH4 exchange, and 21 core profiles for 210Pb and 14C peat dating. Year-round chamber measurements indicated net carbon balance of −13 ± 8, −49 ± 15, and −91 ± 43 g C m−2 y−1 for the years 2012–2018 in palsa, bog, and fen, respectively. Methane emission offset 2%, 7%, and 17% of the CO2 uptake rate across this gradient. Recent aCAR indicates higher C accumulation rates in surface peats in the palsa and bog compared to current CO2 fluxes, but these assessments are more similar in the fen. aCAR increased from low millennial-scale levels (17–29 g C m−2 y−1) to moderate aCAR of the past century (72–81 g C m−2 y−1) to higher recent aCAR of 90–147 g C m−2 y−1. Recent permafrost collapse, greater inundation and vegetation response has made the landscape a stronger CO2 sink, but this CO2 sink is increasingly offset by rising CH4 emissions, dominated by modern carbon as determined by 14C. The higher CH4 emissions result in higher net CO2-equivalent emissions, indicating that radiative forcing of this mire and similar permafrost ecosystems will exert a warming influence on future climate.

The contribution from northern high latitude wetlands are a major uncertainty in the atmospheric methane (CH4) budget throughout the Holocene. We reconstructed CH4 emissions from northern peatlands from 13,000 BP to present using an empirical model based on observations of peat initiation (>3600 dates), peatland type (>250 peat cores), and observed CH4 emissions in order to explore the effects of changes in wetland type on CH4 emissions over the end of the late glacial and the Holocene. Fen area increased steadily before 8000 BP as fens formed in major wetland complexes. After 8000 BP, new fen formation continued but widespread peatland succession (to bogs) and permafrost aggradation occurred. Reconstructed CH4 emissions from peatlands increased rapidly between 10,600 BP and 6900 BP due to fen formation and expansion. Emissions stabilized after 5000 BP at 42 ± 25 Tg CH4 y-1 as high-emitting fens transitioned to lower-emitting bogs and permafrost peatlands. Widespread permafrost formation in northern peatlands after 1000 BP decreased CH4 emissions by 20% to 34 ± 21 Tg y-1 by the present day and suggests peatland CH4 emissions will increase with permafrost thaw.

The carbon balance of peatlands is predicted to shift from a sink to a source this century. However, peatland ecosystems are still omitted from the main Earth system models that are used for future climate change projections, and they are not considered in integrated assessment models that are used in impact and mitigation studies. By using evidence synthesized from the literature and an expert elicitation, we define and quantify the leading drivers of change that have impacted peatland carbon stocks during the Holocene and predict their effect during this century and in the far future. We also identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the scientific community and provide insight towards better integration of peatlands into modelling frameworks. Given the importance of the contribution by peatlands to the global carbon cycle, this study shows that peatland science is a critical research area and that we still have a long way to go to fully understand the peatland–carbon–climate nexus.

Northern wetlands with organic soil i.e., mires are significant carbon storages. This key ecosystem service may be threatened by anthropogenic activities and climate change, yet we still lack a consensus on how these major changes affects their carbon sink capacities. We studied how forestry drainage and restoration combined with experimental warming, impacts greenhouse gas fluxes of wetlands with peat. We measured CO₂ and CH₄ during two and N₂O fluxes during one growing season using the chamber method. Gas fluxes were primarily controlled by water table, leaf area and temperature. Land use had a clear impact of on CO₂ exchange. Forestry drainage increased respiration rates and decreased field layer net ecosystem CO₂ uptake (NEE) and leaf area index (LAI), while at restoration sites the flux rates and LAI had recovered to the level of undrained sites. CH₄ emissions were exceptionally low at all sites during our study years due to natural drought, but still somewhat lower at drained compared to undrained sites. Moderate warming triggered an increase in LAI across all land use types. This was accompanied by an increase in cumulative seasonal NEE. Restoration appeared to be an effective tool to return the ecosystem functions of these wetlands as we found no differences in LAI or any gas flux components (PMAX, Reco, NEE, CH₄ or N₂O) between restored and undrained sites. We did not find any signs that moderate warming would compromise the return of the ecosystem functions related to C sequestration.

Major regime shifts in mires such as the fen–bog transition and the transition from non-forested to forested peatland are driven by ecohydrological changes. However, little is known about how the magnitudes and/or durations of hydrological shifts relate to these regime shifts. Here we analyse long-term water table data in conjunction with plant community data collected from primary mires on the Finnish coast of the Gulf of Bothnia. These ecosystems represent various stages of drainage: undrained, drained sites with developing tree stands, and unsuccessfully drained sites not supporting tree encroachment. The varying success of drainage provides an ideal field laboratory for investigation of thresholds of water table control on the successional trajectories of primary mire. Our data indicate a likely mechanism for the control of vegetation regime shifts in northern peatlands by water table, with time of year being as important a factor as the magnitude of change. Spring flooding rather than summer water table level appeared to be crucial for controlling state shifts in primary mire vegetation. As the effects of climate change on peatlands are most likely to be mediated by changes in hydrology and water table level, our study indicates a need for more thorough investigation of seasonal variability in the controlling factors.

Letter

Northern peatlands in permafrost regions contain a large amount of organic carbon (C) in the soil. Climate warming and associated permafrost degradation are expected to have significant impacts on the C balance of these ecosystems, but the magnitude is uncertain. We incorporated a permafrost model, Northern Ecosystem Soil Temperature (NEST), into a biogeochemical model, DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC), to model C dynamics in high-latitude peatland ecosystems. The enhanced model was applied to assess effects of permafrost thaw on C fluxes of a subarctic peatland at Stordalen, Sweden. DNDC simulated soil freeze-thaw dynamics, net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE), and CH4 fluxes across three typical land cover types, which represent a gradient in the process of ongoing permafrost thaw at Stordalen. Model results were compared with multiyear field measurements, and the validation indicates that DNDC was able to simulate observed differences in seasonal soil thaw, NEE, and CH4 fluxes across the three land cover types. Consistent with the results from field studies, the modeled C fluxes across the permafrost thaw gradient demonstrate that permafrost thaw and the associated changes in soil hydrology and vegetation not only increase net uptake of C from the atmosphere but also increase the annual to decadal radiative forcing impacts on climate due to increased CH4 emissions. This study indicates the potential of utilizing biogeochemical models, such as DNDC, to predict the soil thermal regime in permafrost areas and to investigate impacts of permafrost thaw on ecosystem C fluxes after incorporating a permafrost component into the model framework., AuthorCount:6

Thermokarst lakes formed across vast regions of Siberia and Alaska during the last deglaciation and are thought to be a net source of atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide during the Holocene epoch1, 2, 3, 4. However, the same thermokarst lakes can also sequester carbon5, and it remains uncertain whether carbon uptake by thermokarst lakes can offset their greenhouse gas emissions. Here we use field observations of Siberian permafrost exposures, radiocarbon dating and spatial analyses to quantify Holocene carbon stocks and fluxes in lake sediments overlying thawed Pleistocene-aged permafrost. We find that carbon accumulation in deep thermokarst-lake sediments since the last deglaciation is about 1.6 times larger than the mass of Pleistocene-aged permafrost carbon released as greenhouse gases when the lakes first formed. Although methane and carbon dioxide emissions following thaw lead to immediate radiative warming, carbon uptake in peat-rich sediments occurs over millennial timescales. We assess thermokarst-lake carbon feedbacks to climate with an atmospheric perturbation model and find that thermokarst basins switched from a net radiative warming to a net cooling climate effect about 5,000 years ago. High rates of Holocene carbon accumulation in 20 lake sediments (47 ± 10 grams of carbon per square metre per year; mean ± standard error) were driven by thermokarst erosion and deposition of terrestrial organic matter, by nutrient release from thawing permafrost that stimulated lake productivity and by slow decomposition in cold, anoxic lake bottoms. When lakes eventually drained, permafrost formation rapidly sequestered sediment carbon. Our estimate of about 160 petagrams of Holocene organic carbon in deep lake basins of Siberia and Alaska increases the circumpolar peat carbon pool estimate for permafrost regions by over 50 per cent (ref. 6). The carbon in perennially frozen drained lake sediments may become vulnerable to mineralization as permafrost disappears7, 8

Thermokarst lakes formed across vast regions of Siberia and Alaska during the last deglaciation and are thought to be a net source of atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide during the Holocene. However, the same thermokarst lakes can also sequester carbon, and it remains uncertain whether carbon uptake by thermokarst lakes can offset their greenhouse gas emissions. Here we use field observations of Siberian permafrost exposures, radiocarbon dating and spatial analyses to quantify Holocene carbon stocks and fluxes in lake sediments overlying thawed Pleistocene-aged permafrost. We find that carbon accumulation in deep thermokarst-lake sediments since the last deglaciation is about 1.6 times larger than the mass of Pleistocene-aged permafrost carbon released as greenhouse gases when the lakes first formed. While methane and carbon dioxide emissions following thaw lead to immediate radiative warming, carbon uptake in peat-rich sediments occurs over millennial time scales. With the help of an atmospheric perturbation model we assess thermokarst-lake carbon feedbacks to climate and find that thermokarst basins switched from a net radiative warming to a net cooling climate effect about 5000 years ago. High rates of Holocene carbon accumulation in lake sediments (47 ± 10 g C m-2 a-1, mean ± SE, n=20 lakes) were driven by thermokarst erosion and deposition of terrestrial organic matter, by nutrient release from thawing permafrost that stimulated lake productivity and by slow decomposition in cold, anoxic lake bottoms. When lakes eventually drained, permafrost formation rapidly sequestered sediment carbon. Our estimate of about 160 Pg of Holocene organic carbon in deep lake basins of Siberia and Alaska increases the circumpolar peat carbon pool estimate for permafrost regions by over 50 percent. The carbon in perennially-frozen drained lake sediments may become vulnerable to mineralization as permafrost disappears, potentially negating the climate stabilization provided by th