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This paper estimates the seasonal and zonal $${\mathrm{CO}}_{2}$$ marginal emissions factors (MEFs) from electricity production in the Italian electricity system. The inclusion of the zonal configuration of the Italian wholesale power market leads to a complete measurement of marginal emission factors which takes into account the heterogeneous distribution of RES power plants, their penetration rate and their variability within the zonal power generation mix. This article relies on a flexible econometric approach that includes the fractional cointegration methodology to incorporate the typical features of long-memory processes into the estimation of MEFs. We find high variability in annual MEFs estimated at the zonal level. Sardinia reports the highest MEF (0.7189 $${\mathrm{tCO}}_{2}$$ /MWh), followed by the Center South (0.7022 $${\mathrm{tCO}}_{2}$$ /MWh), the Center North (0.4236 $${\mathrm{tCO}}_{2}$$ /MWh), the North (0.2018 $${\mathrm{tCO}}_{2}$$ /MWh) and Sicily (0.146 $${\mathrm{tCO}}_{2}$$ /MWh). The seasonal analysis also shows a large variability of MEFs in each zone across time. The heterogeneity of results leads us to recommend that policymakers consider the zonal configuration of the power market and the large seasonal variability related to carbon emissions and electricity generation when designing incentives for renewable energy sources expansion and for achieving emission reduction targets.

We analyse the evolution of the systemic risk impact of oil and natural gas companies since 2000. This period is characterised by several events that affected energy source markets: the real effect of the global financial crisis, the explosion of shale production and the diffusion of the Covid-19 pandemic. The price of oil and natural gas showed extreme swings, impacting companies' financial situations, which, accompanied by technological developments in shale production, had an impact on the debt issuance and on the overall risk level of the oil and natural gas sector. By studying the systemic impact of oil and natural gas companies on risk in the financial market, measured by the ∆CoVaR, we observe that in the most recent decade, their role is sensibly increasing compared to 2000-2010, even accounting for the possible effect associated with the increase in companies' sizes. In addition, our results show evidence of a decreasing relevance of traditional drivers of systemic risk, suggesting that additional factors might be present. Finally, when focusing on the impact of Covid-19, we document its relevant role in fueling the increase in the oil and natural gas companies' systemic impact.

We study the convergence of day-ahead and balancing prices for the Italian power market. The zonal time-series of the prices are evaluated, seasonally adjusted and tested to assess their long-run properties. We focus on the dynamic behavior of the four continental price zones of Italy (North, Central-North, Central-South and South). Using a sample of data that spans the last decade and applying the fractional cointegration methodology, we show the existence of long-run relationships. This signals the existence of convergence between prices in each zone but zone Central-South, where prices are divergent. We also measure the average price difference, and analyse how it evolves over time. Price differences dynamically reduce for all zones except for Central-South. We comment the results and provide an interpretation for the differences across zones. We also discuss policy consequences for both Italian and other markets.

This paper focuses on the relationship between the European Union Emission Trading System allowances’ prices and the Italian electricity price, aiming at assessing whether such a mechanism has been a driver for the decarbonization of the power sector. To this aim, we calculate the long-run relationships between energy prices, natural gas prices and allowances’ prices, through a VECM model, distinguishing between peak and off-peak prices. The analysis is carried out for the third phase of the EU-ETS, which started in 2013, and for two-year rolling windows that account for changes over time of the pass-through rates. It is shown that the natural gas price has a high pass-through rate of roughly 70%, which is increasing over time. On the contrary, the pass-through rate of the allowances’ price is as low as 7% for the wholesale electricity price, being slightly more and less for the peak and off-peak prices, respectively. However, this rate has been substantially changing over time, starting from a high level and falling significantly, becoming negative in the recent years. This could signal that the EU-ETS has been increasingly more effective in endogenizing emission costs for power producers, inducing them to reduce their production costs associated with emissions by means of a change in technologies. However, the analysis of the impulse response functions hardly supports this finding, eventually casting doubts on the effectiveness of the EU-ETS in Italy to drive the transition toward a less carbon-intensive power supply.

In the paper, we study the long-run relationship in the WTI-Brent oil time series, taking into account the occurrence of two relevant events: the rise of shale oil production, in early 2011, and the widening and closing of the WTI-Brent price spread, from 2011 to 2014. Monthly data of WTI and Brent crude oil prices, as well as US shale oil quantities from January 2000 to December 2017 is used for the analyses. The empirical results of the cointegration tests with structural breaks show that two structural break occurs, in February 2011 and in October 2014. We then estimate a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), considering the structural break suggested by the cointegration test results, the timing of the rise in shale oil production and the dynamics of the WTI-Brent price spread. Our analysis reveals that WTI and Brent crude oil prices have had a long-run relationship up to 2011; no cointegration existed during the period of widening of the spread; again, a new long-run relationship arises after the closing of the gap, which includes the shale oil production. In the last period, the cross price elasticity of Brent on WTI slightly reduces compared to the pre-2011 era, whilst the shale oil production increases its importance in explaining the long-run relationship between WTI and Brent fivefold. Using the Generalized Impulse Response Functions (GIRFs) we finally study the impact of exogenous shocks on the variables, showing that in the first period, with limited shale oil production, oil prices reacted to shale oil and not vice versa. After October 2014, the opposite becomes true and shale oil production follows changes in both WTI and Brent prices.

In this paper we investigate the role of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) on the Italian power exchange. The purpose of this analysis is to assess the impact of electricity generation from RES on the reduction of CO2 emissions and on the value of the power supply. The study is based on hourly zonal micro-data for 2018 from the Italian power market and identifies the amount of avoided carbon emissions related both to crowded-out thermal units and to potential “load-shedding” situations. Finally, the investigation leads to the assessment of both the economic value of RES penetration and to the economic value of the CO2 emissions avoided by renewable power generation. The results show that the annual savings of carbon emissions nationwide amount to nearly 22 Mt CO2 whereas the value of CO2 reduction is estimated at €348 million. The economic savings from large and small-scale wind and solar generation in 2018 account for nearly €19 billion and welfare is increased by 44%, thus confirming the net positive effect arising from RES promotion.

From an electricity market design perspective, it is relevant and practical to know which market structures allow for price convergence, and how long this takes to achieve. This study employs the Phillips and Sul (2007, 2009) methodology to test for the convergence of wholesale electricity prices across the Australian States. We identify a long-run, common price growth pattern that applies to a cluster formed by three Eastern States that share common market characteristics and limited physical interconnection. We also find another cluster with less competitive market structures that, although not interconnected, strongly converge towards their own trend. These findings confirm theoretical expectations while quantifying the rate of convergence. Finally, we also investigate the role that the carbon tax regime has played in the convergence process, with new empirical showing that the previous results are not affected, with the notable exception being the case of South Australia.

Reliability Options (ROs) are used to enhance the security of supply in electricity systems. When a power producer writes a RO, s/he agrees to set a cap on the price of electricity that s/he cashes. In return, the system operator, i.e., the party that is buying the option, pays to the option issuer a premium unaffected by price volatilities. In this paper we analyze how ROs affect the timing and value of investments in the energy sector and we show under what conditions they can be used as investment stimuli. We prove that, contrary to what is expected, ROs can harm the security of supply by delaying the adoption of new capacity and by reducing the value of investing in it. To avoid such a result, a careful setting of the relevant parameters is needed.

Reliability Options are capacity remuneration mechanisms aimed at enhancing security of supply in electricity systems. They can be framed as call options on electricity sold by power producers to System Operators. This paper provides a comprehensive mathematical treatment of Reliability Options. Their value is first derived by means of closed-form pricing formulae, which are obtained under several assumptions about the dynamics of electricity prices and strike prices. Then, the value of the Reliability Option is simulated under a real-market calibration, using data of the Italian power market. We finally perform sensitivity analyses to highlight the impact of the level and volatility of both power and strike price, of the mean reversion speeds and of the correlation coefficient on the Reliability Options' value.

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between energy intensity and energy price in a panel of 120 countries over 34 years, from 1980 to 2013. We use information on energy intensity and real oil price, and merge it with macroeconomic data on the countries' structural characteristics. We assess their long-run relationship and direction of causality using panel cointegration tests and dynamic panel data models. We identify a statistically significant, but weak negative effect of real oil price on energy intensity, which corresponds to a positive effect of energy price on energy efficiency. We also show significant, large regional differences in this relationship. We thus posit that a global policy aimed at increasing the price of oil would induce a limited increase in average energy efficiency through a more efficient use of energy, but this increase would differ considerably across regions around the world.

The paper considers different market settings for the participation to the balancing services market of small scale variable renewable energy sources connected to the distribution grid. By mixing an economical and a technical approach, it evaluates the efficiency of participation to the market under two distinct approaches to resources' aggregation: a commercial scheme and a technical one. In the former, the supply of the small scale variable distributed renewable energy sources is grouped on a purely commercial basis; in the latter, the distribution system operator is responsible of the imbalances that may possibly arise in the distribution grid and aggregates the sources from a technical perspective. By considering a reference distribution network and designing scenarios for the forecast uncertainty about supply and demand of power profiles, the impact of different market frameworks is assessed. The upward and downward balancing services provided by variable distributed energy resources and controllable units connected to the high voltage grid are both considered. Moreover, the power supply curtailments, that endogenously arise due to the violation of technical constraints of the distribution grid and the random nature of energy supply by renewables, are addressed, for each specific market model. As a general outcome of this research, it is shown that providing balancing energy based on a commercial approach is preferable as long as renewables' curtailment penalty is low and local generators have correlated forecast errors (as in the case of photovoltaic units) with a large reserve capacity. High penalties for curtailment and lower correlation among generation schedule deviations, along with a lower reserve by distributed units, make the technical approach more convenient.

Reliability Options (ROs) are used to enhance the security of supply in electricity systems. When a power producer writes a RO, s/he agrees to set a cap on the price of electricity that s/he cashes. In return, the system operator, i.e. the party that is buying the option, pays to the option issuer a fixed premium. In this paper we analyze how ROs affect the timing and value of investments in the energy sector and we show under what conditions they can be used as investment stimuli. We prove that, contrarily to what is expected, ROs can potentially harm the security of supply by delaying the adoption of new capacity and by reducing the value of investing in it. To avoid such a result, a careful setting of the relevant parameters is needed.

The paper provides a rational explanation for the redistribution paradox, whereby low-income individuals seeking more social security prefer a lower taxation although this might imply a reduced welfare. A simple model of tax transfer and redistribution is presented, with various agents facing two different unemployment probabilities. We investigate how the preferred tax rate changes with the probability of being unemployed. We show that, when the probability of unemployment for the less-skilled correlates negatively with that of the highly skilled, the relationship with the tax rate is not monotonic and depends on the level of risk aversion. This theoretical framework is confirmed in an empirical investigation based on microeconomic data, and in a robustness test based on macroeconomic data.

Reliability Options are capacity remuneration mechanisms aimed at enhancing security of supply in electricity systems. They can be framed as call options on electricity sold by power producers to System Operators. This paper provides a comprehensive mathematical treatment of Reliability Options. Their value is first derived by means of closed-form pricing formulae, which are obtained under several assumptions about the dynamics of electricity prices and strike prices. Then, the value of the Reliability Option is simulated under a real-market calibration, using data of the Italian power market. We perform sensitivity analyses to highlight the role of the level and volatility of both power and strike price, of the mean reversion speeds and of the correlation coefficient on the Reliability Options' value. Finally, we calculate the parameter model risk to quantify the impact that a model misspecification has on the equilibrium value of the RO.

International audience; In many cases, consumers cannot observe a single firm’s investment in environmental quality or safety, but only the average quality of the industry. The outcome of the investment is stochastic, since firms cannot control perfectly the technology or external factors that may affect production. In addition, firms do not know consumers’ valuation of quality. We characterize the solution of the firms’ investment game and show that the value of stopping investments when firms are already investing in quality can be negative when the free-riding incentives dominate. The existence of systematic uncertainty on the outcome of investment slows down investment in quality, compared to a situation without uncertainty. The uncertainty on consumers’ willingness to pay for quality can speed up or slow down investment. We also obtain the counterintuitive result that information acquisition may decrease the overall level of quality.

This paper analyses the relationship between firms' Corporate Social Responsibility activities and their economic performance, taking into account seven macro-categories of corporate social responsibility (CSR), six market-based and accounting-based performance indicators and by disaggregating for the firms' sector of activity. In particular, through a representative sample of 988 US-based companies from nine different sectors (Basic Materials, Consumer Goods, Consumer Services, Financials, Health Care, Industrial, Oil & Gas, Technology and Utilities), we study the dynamics of possible endogenous and non-linear relationships through the Arellano-Bond technique in the dynamic panel. The results show some common patterns and sectorial specificities—CSR engagement in general raises firms' total stock returns and reduces financial risks, but this depends on the area of CSR in which the firms invest. The results of an accounting-based figure analysis are less univocal, showing patterns that depend both on the specific area of CSR and the sectorial activities conducted.

In the paper we study the convergence of prices in the electricity markets, both at the day-ahead level and for the dispatching services (such as balancing and reserves). We introduce two concepts of price convergence, the convergence of zonal prices within each market (within convergence), and the converge of prices in a given zone between the two markets (between convergence). We provide an extensive analysis based on Italian data of within and between convergence. The zonal time-series of the prices are evaluated, seasonally adjusted and tested to assess their long-run properties. This evaluation induces us to focus on the behavior of the three largest and most interconnected continental zones of Italy (North, Center-North and Center-South). The fractional cointegration methodology used in the analysis shows the existence of long-run relationships among the series used in our study. This signals the existence of price convergence within markets, even though for the dispatching services market the evidence is less robust. The analysis also shows the existence of price convergence between markets in each zone, even though the evidence is more clearly affirmed for the North (the largest Italian zone), less so for the other two zones. Results are interpreted on the basis of the characteristics of the markets and the zones.

The gas extraction technological developments of the 2000s have allowed shale gas production, which in the US has become a significant part of the total gas production. Such a significant change might have affected the long-run relationship between oil and natural gas prices postulated by several authors. By using monthly data of oil and gas prices, as well as gas quantities from 1997 to 2013, we test for the presence of a long-run relationship, allowing also for possible breaks. We first show the stationarity of gas quantity data before the production of shale gas and the existence of a break in the trend (and in the intercept) on the integrated gas price time series, by the time shale gas enters the market. Then, applying a Vector Error Correction Model, we show that shale gas production has affected the relationship across variables. Gas quantities become relevant in the formation of gas prices after the beginning of shale gas production, while impact of oil prices on the gas ones doubles. However, on the basis of the available data, it is not unequivocally possible to assess whether or not a new long-run relationship between oil and gas has been established.

The chapter discusses the relationship between the evaluation of the damages due to periodical coastal floods and the local sea level rise (LSLR) in the town of Venice, Italy. First, it discusses how the periodicity of sea level oscillation and the randomness of storm surge can be modeled and converted into an economic value of the damages, on the basis of the specific characteristics of the case considered and data availability. Then, a specific example is presented, namely the evaluation of the system of mobile dams, called Mo.S.E., currently under construction, designed to protect Venice from the periodical floods known as Acqua Alta (AA). The future patterns of AA are simulated for the next 50 years under alternative LSLRs. Benefits of Mo.S.E. are calculated by specifying the damage function that converts each avoided AA episode into economic values. It is shown that benefits are just at the level of the costs, when a low LSLR is assumed, and increase with LSLR, provided that it does not reach a too high level.

We analyze a stylized market where N boundedly rational agents may decide to trade or not a share of a risky asset at subsequent trading dates. Agents’ payoff depends on returns, which are endogenously determined taking into account observed and forecasted demand and an exogenous transaction tax. We study the time evolutions of demand, returns and market activity. We show that the introduction of a transaction tax generally helps in reducing variability of returns and market activity. On the other hand, there are market conditions under which a low taxation may lead the market into a very unstable phase characterized by the fluctuation of the fundamentals around two different regimes; indeed, under these circumstances, heteroscedasticity of time series is detected and statistically analyzed.

In the paper a game between private and public individuals is set in order to study under which conditions the former would like to limit ex-ante the choices of the latter. Ambiguity, as distinguished from risk, is explicitly introduced by means of capacities and Choquet Expected Utility. It is shown that constitutional constraints are necessary to prevent private individuals from being exploited by public individuals whenever citizens feel a too high level of ambiguity.

The gas extraction technological developments of the 2000s have allowed shale gas production, which in the US has become a significant part of the total gas production. Such a significant change might have affected the long-run relationship between oil and natural gas prices postulated by several authors. By using monthly data of oil and gas prices, as well as gas quantities from 1997 to 2013, we test for the presence of a long-run relationship, allowing also for possible breaks. We first show the stationarity of gas quantity data before the production of shale gas and the existence of a break in the trend (and in the the intercept) on the integrated gas price time series, by the time shale gas enters the market. Then, applying a Vector Error Correction Model, we show that shale gas production has affected the relationship across variables. Gas quantities become relevant in the formation of gas prices after the beginning of shale gas production, while impact of oil prices on the gas ones doubles. However, on the basis of the available data, it is not unequivocally possible to assess whether or not a new long-run relationship between oil and gas has been established.

In this paper the Cournot oligopoly under uncertainty is analyzed by means of the Choquet Expected Utility (CEU) theory. Firms are supposed to be either optimistic (CEU maximizers who hold concave capacities) or pessimistic (convex capacities). Reaction functions, equilibrium quantities, prices and profits are derived and compared for different degrees of uncertainty and uncertainty attitude (optimism or pessimism). It is proved that optimists make higher profits than pessimists whenever uncertainty is sufficiently low. If it is high just optimists participate in the market making losses. An interpretation of the main results in terms of the market's level of maturity is provided.

Venice (Italy) is built on several islands inside a lagoon. It undergoes a periodical ‡flooding phenomenon, called "Acqua Alta" (AA). A system of mobile dams, called Mo.S.E., is currently under construction to protect it. When needed, several ‡floodgates will be lifted to separate the lagoon from the Adriatic sea. AA, whose length and height has been increasing in recent years, is a random phenomenon, correlated with local sea level rise (LSLR). Several possible LSLRs can be assumed as consequences of different global warming scenarios. We investigate here the cost-benefi t of Mo.S.E. under different possible LSLRs. First, we simulate the future patterns of AA for the next 50 years under alternative LSLRs. Then, we calculate the benefi t of Mo.S.E., converting each avoided AA episode into an economic value (avoided cost). We show that the bene fits are just at the level of the costs, when a low LSLR is assumed and increase with LSLR, provided that it does not reach a catastrophic (yet unpredictable) extreme level.

We evaluate the contribution of technological change in reducing CO 2 emissions in the Italian pulp and paper industry during the first and second phases of application of the European Union Emission Trading System (EU-ETS). We decompose the variation in emission and emission intensity into three different types of effects: a composition effect, a technique effect and a scale effect. The composition effect measures the change in emissions and emissions intensity due to a shift in production towards products that cause less emissions. The technique effect measures the change per each type of product, thereby accounting for technology improvements in the production of each type of good produced. The scale effect singles out the reduction in total emission due to an overall reduction in output. We show that the first phase of the application of EU-ETS has led to a reduction in both emissions and emission intensity due to the composition effect. The technological change has had a limited negative impact on emissions in the first phase, while in the second phase there has been limited technology improvement in the industry. However, the figures of the scale effect show that the larger reduction in emission is due to the overall decrease in output.

The paper analyses the relationship among public efficiency, exploitation of private individuals by the government and the role of constitutional constraints. First, it contains an extensive review of the Leviathan model based on Inman's formalisation of Brennan and Buchanan theory. Secondly, an extension of such a model is proposed, in which public agents are separated into politicians and bureaucrats. In so doing a ‘new’ efficiency-equity trade-off arises, namely, the achievement of Pareto-efficiency through constitutional constraints is obtained at a cost of a possible exploitation of private individuals, while the non-exploitation allocation is coupled with a possible Pareto-inefficiency.

International audience; In this paper, we evaluate the impact of the introduction of electricity produced by Nuclear Power (NP) plants on the electricity price formed in a liberalized, power-exchange based market. In order to do so, we build a realistic large-scale agent-based model that replicates the features of a real market (the Italian one). Firstly, we validate the computational model using exact historical data about supply, demand and network characteristics. A statistical analysis confirms that the simulator well replicates the observed prices. Then, a future scenario is simulated, based on plausible market evolutions and energy carriers' price dynamics. The future electricity prices are evaluated with and without NP plants. Different NP plants' ownerships are considered to take into account how agents' competition is affected by the introduction of such a large base-load generator. It is shown that NP reduces the prices and volatility, but the size (and the sign) of the impact depends on the pattern of the expected demand load and the ownership structure of the NP plants.