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Fintech and its entrepreneurial opportunities have the ability to play an effective role in the development of the financial industry. Therefore, it is necessary to make a correct and effective policy in this area to identify its probable future. This study is exploratory in terms of purpose and practical in terms of orientation. Interviews and questionnaires were used to collect data. 28 drivers were extracted by reviewing the background and interviewing experts. In order to screen the propellants, expert questionnaire and fuzzy Delphi method were used. Then the propellants screened were ranked through the priority assessment questionnaire and the developed COPRAS technique. The two drivers of the development of smart contracts in the financial industry and the tendency of financial institutions towards open innovation had the highest priority and were used to write research scenarios. Based on these two drivers, 4 scenarios of the era of pristine opportunities, the era of conservative managers, the era of dilapidated infrastructure and the ice age were developed. Then, using the MABAC technique, the scenario of the age of dilapidated infrastructures was selected as the possible scenario of the research. Research proposals were proposed based on priority drivers and possible scenarios. Government support, providing sufficient funds in order to create the necessary infrastructure for the development of smart contracts by banks or establishing a cooperative relationship between banks and financial institutions, fair legislation, development of regtechs, creating compatibility between current systems with new technologies were the most important practical proposals of the study.

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The practice of journalism has undergone many changes in the last few years, with changes in technology being the main driver of these changes. We present a future study where we aim to get an understanding of what technologies will become important for the journalist and further change the journalist's workplace. The new technological solutions will have to be implemented in the media houses' information systems, and knowledge about what technologies will have the greatest impact will influence IS strategies in the media house. In the study we interviewed 16 experts on how they envision the future technologies of the journalist. We analyzed the interviews with a qualitative research approach. Our analysis shows that technologies for multi-platform news production, automated news content generation, cloud services for flexible production, content search, and content verification are the most important in terms of needs and competitiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Today, the strength of a brand is the first word in marketing and attracting customers because if a brand has desirable features, the consumer will be encouraged to purchase that brand and, more significantly, stay loyal. This research aimed to identify key sustainability drivers of the Persepolis Club brand. Methodology: This research is explanatory in terms of the applied goal-setting strategy, and its method is descriptive-analytical and based on future study methods. The statistical population of this study consisted of professors in sports marketing, marketing officials of Persepolis Club, and league organizations. The selection of these people was purposeful, and the number was 15. To identify the issues affecting the future of the brand sustainability of Persepolis Club, a literature review and interviews with experts were used. Based on that, 15 final components related to the future of crucial sustainability drivers of the Persepolis brand were identified. Findings: Based on the research findings, four variables, such as "improving brand equity, marketing activities, economic dimension, and social responsibility," are among the key sustainability drivers of the Persepolis Club brand in the future. Moreover, they were highly uncertain. Originality: Accordingly, utilizing them in future planning and determining possible scenarios is necessary. Regarding the identified scenarios, it should be stated that the scenario of the flourishing potential of the Persepolis club brand can be the best case for the sustainability of the Persepolis club brand in the future, which is an important finding of this research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The progress and emergence of new technologies in the present century have made academic libraries revise, develop, and transform their programs and services. In other words, recent developments have prompted the managers and librarians of libraries around the world to take the changes seriously, think about the horizons of the users’ present and future needs, investigate the challenges they are likely to face on their way to achieving their goals, and devise serious plans, particularly strategic ones, by predicting the trends of future developments. So, systematic future studies need to be conducted on academic libraries to enable them to keep up with modern developments, deal with them effectively, and maintain their status and persistency in current competitive conditions. In this regard, the current article aims to study and design scenarios for the future of academic libraries in Iran in order to help provision of suitable strategies for the promotion and development of these libraries.Methodology: The current research is a survey-applied in which 16 academic libraries have been selected by the quota sampling method and a number of professors and related experts, together with the managers or assistants of the libraries of the selected universities, have formed an expert panel. Besides, four questionnaires were developed to gather the required data. To achieve the research goals, firstly, a comprehensive literature review was conducted to extract the drivers affecting the future of the target academic libraries. These drivers were localized and screened by experts, using the fuzzy Delphi method. After that, the weight of each driver was calculated using the fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process method. In the end, the key drivers and final uncertainties were determined by combining the results with Cross Impact Analysis. Findings: In the first step, reviewing the studies led to the extraction of 112 candidate driving forces that can influence the future of academic libraries in eight dimensions, including the political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental dimensions (for investigating external environments) in addition to the “structural-managerial” and “the nature and services of libraries” dimensions. After determining the key drivers, and analyzing their mutual effects, the second stage was completed by formulating scenarios facing university libraries by forming a panel of experts, using the Delphi method and future research software.Conclusion: Finally, after analyzing the aspects of the final uncertainties, among the possible candidate scenarios, four plausible scenarios, namely, Utopia, Treasure key, Vicious circle, and Ruins, were drawn as the future possible state of Iranian academic libraries, from which the “Utopia scenario” was picked up as the imagined future.

Renewable generation of fuels using solar energy is a promising technology whose deployment hinges on the discovery of materials with a combination of durability and solar-to-chemical conversion efficiency that has yet to be demonstrated. Stable operation of photoanodes has been demonstrated with wide-gap semiconductors, as well as protected visible gap semiconductors. Visible photoresponse from electrochemically stable materials is quite rare. In this paper, we report the high-throughput discovery of an amorphous Ni-Sb (1:1) oxide photoanode that meets the requirements of operational stability, visible photoresponse, and appreciable photovoltage. X-ray absorption characterization of Ni and Sb establishes a structural connection to rutile NiSb2O6, guiding electronic structure characterization via X-ray photoelectron experiments and density functional theory. This amorphous photoanode opens avenues for photoelectrode development due to the lack of crystal anisotropy combined with its operational stability, which mitigates the formation of an interphase that disrupts the semiconductor-electrolyte junction.

High-rise construction is one of the important approaches of the big cities of the world, which has become popular due to the increasing population growth, scarcity and high cost of land, and horizontal development of cities. One of the most important dimensions that has influenced the process of high-rise construction is the environmental dimension. For this reason, this study was done to evaluate the environmental effects of high-rise development in Ahvaz city using futurology approach. This study is practical in terms of its purpose and analytical-exploratory in terms of its nature and method. To collect the data, a questionnaire and Delphi technique and document-library studies were used. The findings showed that among the 33 main factors affecting the environmental sustainability of high-rise construction in Ahvaz city, 18 variables are key and influential factors. The variables that have the most influence on the environmental future of high-rise development in Ahvaz city are population factors, attention to the economic values of recycling, access to sunlight, bicycles, lack of urban parks and open spaces, temperature, humidity, wind, touch, compliance of environmental laws with the landscape, ecological elements, land and soil conditions, pedestrian crossing, topography and geology, development of environmental diplomacy plans, smell, public transportation, and socio-cultural issues. Due to the high influence of the microclimatic and socio-cultural factors regarding environmental sustainability on the high-rise building process by Ahvaz city officials, considering the issues can determine the success or failure of the sustainable environmental indicators of Ahvaz city high-rise development. Finally, solutions are suggested to improve the current situation, which require the serious attention of managers and urban planners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The current research aims to study the future of the impact of migration from the central plateau to Guilan province on the implementation of comprehensive plans and urban and rural development. Method: In this research, the method of mutual effects analysis, which is one of the future research methods, has been used. For this purpose, at first, a questionnaire was designed to obtain the events or components related to the subject under study and it was provided to the group of experts and specialists. Findings: By refining and summarizing the questionnaires, 14 components were identified, and then by analyzing and categorizing the components, the classified areas in the Cartesian map were defined as the influence and dependence of the mutual effects of the events or components. If the findings of this research showed that 4 events are in the category of dominant and decisive events, 6 events are in the category of key events, 2 events are in the category of neighboring events, 2 events are in the category of regulatory events and 2 other events are in the category of dominated events. are grouped. Conclusion: According to the findings of the research, there are 6 components, the spread of urban growth with an impact of 10.4 and dependence of 11.2, unauthorized construction in land with an impact of 10.1 and dependence of 11, urban sprawl with an impact of 11.3 and dependence of 10.9, the formation of marginal tissues with an impact of 12 and dependence. 10.9, change of urban land uses during the implementation of comprehensive and detailed plans with impact 9 and dependency 10.9, and unauthorized separation of lands with impact 9.3 and dependency 10.8; In the category of key and important components of immigration, they are the implementation of comprehensive and guiding urban and rural plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The supply chain of machine-made carpets has faced many fluctuations in recent years. One of the most important fluctuations is the ripple effect that has been observed in recent years. The ripple effect has had many negative consequences for the machine made carpet supply chain, so future research of possible scenarios in the future is highly necessary and is the main purpose of this study. Methods: This study was conducted in the machine-made carpet industry of Iran. The data were collected in 4 stages based on the opinion of experts. Micmac and ScenarioWizard software were used for future research. Results: The results of the interview showed that there are 15 drivers for the ripple effect in the supply chain, of which 12 drivers were selected as important drivers based on the output of Micmac software. Four consistent scenarios for the future of the ripple effect were identified as one favorable scenario (robust supply chain), two unfavorable scenarios (unstable supply chain and shaky supply chain) and one mid-range scenario (astonished supply chain). Conclusion: In order to achieve the desired scenario and prevent unfavorable scenarios, flexibility must be built in the supply chain. This is possible through the use of up-to-date technology, collaboration, and backup facilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Road infrastructure development in a country has been considered an important predictor of economic development and prosperity. Hence applying a systematic analysis approach, this study aims to project the future role of the central government in developing road infrastructure and its significance in the country's economic growth. The main data sources were the literature review and expert opinions in the form of self-administrative surveys and interviews. Besides, the Cross-impact Direct Influence (CDI) matrix was applied to formulate the questionnaire. For the data analysis purpose, MICMAC analysis and Scenario Wizard software were used. The MICMAC analysis results revealed the dominant role of 9 important/key variables in developing the Indonesian road infrastructure. Simultaneously 24 positive states of the important variables what identified via the Scenario-Wizard Method. Findings also depicted stronger consistency among the four scenarios. Whereas Scenario 1 showed the most ideal 9 key features related to Indonesia’s road infrastructure developments with a high intensity of concentrating the efforts on planning road infrastructure development in big cities and use of smart and modern technology. Moreover, presenting a group of constructs for developing road infrastructure and resultant economic growth in the country, the current study adds value to the existing literature.

Management of rangelands requires an innovative perspective and forward-looking approaches in a way that can face the challenges of the present age. Climate change and new diseases are examples of challenges for which it is necessary to predict appropriate strategies for the future of rangelands according to their impact. This research aimed to identify the drivers of rangeland management in the Covid-19 pandemic period. For this purpose, the interaction of Covid-19 disease with the main components of rangeland management (pastoralist, livestock, and rangeland) was investigated with the descriptive-analytical method and mutual effects analysis technique. After preparing a 24-item list of influential factors on rangeland management with qualitative approaches, the required information was collected by the questionnaire using the purposeful sampling method from 30 rangeland experts and rangeland exploiters elites in Golestan province in autumn, 2021. Data were analyzed using MICMAC software. The results showed the unstable situation of the rangelands management system in Golestan province. Based on the degree of direct and indirect effect of the factors, the most important drivers of rangeland management included six factors related to the "pastoralist" component, two factors related to the "rangeland" component, and one factor related to "livestock" component which were respectively: "pastoralist's sense of ownership of the range", "pastoralist's knowledge and skill level", "vegetation cover and fodder production of the rangeland", "adherence to the principles of range management", "participation and teamwork of the pastoralist", "proportion of the rangeland in the livelihood of the pastoralist", "job security of the pastoralist", "duration of livestock presence in rangeland ", and "existence drinking water in the rangeland". Furthermore, the Covid-19 pandemic was not a factor in rangeland management because it did not affect the rangeland management system, nor was affected by other factors. According to the findings, a scenario for managing ranges in Golestan province was developed and practical suggestions were presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Road infrastructure development in a country has been considered an important predictor of economic development and prosperity. Hence applying a systematic analysis approach, this study aims to project the future role of the central government in developing road infrastructure and its significance in the country's economic growth. The main data sources were the literature review and expert opinions in the form of self-administrative surveys and interviews. Besides, the Cross-impact Direct Influence (CDI) matrix was applied to formulate the questionnaire. For the data analysis purpose, MICMAC analysis and Scenario Wizard software were used. The MICMAC analysis results revealed the dominant role of 9 important/key variables in developing the Indonesian road infrastructure. Simultaneously 24 positive states of the important variables what identified via the Scenario-Wizard Method. Findings also depicted stronger consistency among the four scenarios. Whereas Scenario 1 showed the most ideal 9 key features related to Indonesia's road infrastructure developments with a high intensity of concentrating the efforts on planning road infrastructure development in big cities and use of smart and modern technology. Moreover, presenting a group of constructs for developing road infrastructure and resultant economic growth in the country, the current study adds value to the existing literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the psychological factors affecting youth marriage from the perspective of the development of Iran in 2040. The present research, which was conducted using the Delphi method, is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive in terms of data collection. The statistical population included all experts in the field of marriage issues. The mentioned specialists have been experts in marriage counseling, marriage psychology, divorce counseling, and marriage sociology. Based on theoretical and practical considerations, 20 experienced marriage experts were identified and interviewed in different cities of Iran. After 20 interviews, theoretical saturation was achieved. Semi-structured interviews, a researcher-made scale based on expert opinions, and a questionnaire of basic uncertainties were used to collect data. Researchers have developed all three tools, whose validity and reliability were assessed and confirmed in the present study. The collected data were described using descriptive statistics, including frequency, central indices, and dispersion indices. In addition, the Friedman ranking test was used to examine the research questions. Based on the results and in terms of importance, the individual-psychological components affecting future youth marriage were as follows: mutual understanding, couple attachment style, cognitive flexibility, parenting style, intellectual maturity, married life knowledge, and self-awareness. In general, the findings of the present study can help youth marriage-related institutions in designing future plans.

Objective: The present study seeks to identify the future of project-oriented organizations active in the financial services industry via the Scenario Planning Approach. Methods: The present study is pragmatic in terms of philosophical foundations, applied in terms of orientation, and a survey in terms of data collection. Regarding the use of qualitative and quantitative methods, it has a mixed methodology. In this study, the Binomial statistical test was used to screen key drivers, modified fuzzy VIKOR method was applied for Key driver analysis, CATWOE was used to map research scenarios, and SECA technique was applied to determine probable Scenarios. Results: In this study, 25 drivers were obtained through reviewing the literature and conducting interviews with experts. These factors were screened using the Binominal test. In this step, 17 drivers had a significance coefficient, i.e. above five percent, and were removed from the analysis. The remaining eight drivers were examined using modified fuzzy VIKOR. The two drivers i.e. the legal environment of the financial services industry and the type of interaction of traditional financial institutions with fintech had the highest priority. Based on these two drivers, the four scenarios of Dreamland, Paranoia Age, Baseless World, and Ice Age were developed for the future of project-based organizations in the financial services industry. Each driver had two opposite modes. Four scenarios were constructed from a combination of different situations of research drivers. Finally, using the SECA technique, the Baseless World scenario was selected as the most probable one. Also in this study, the scenarios of the Dreamland and the Ice Age were optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. The probable scenario was an interstitial one between two optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Conclusion: Finally, the research proposals were developed based on the most probable and worst scenario with a negative dialectical approach. The common denominator between the two scenarios (probable and pessimistic) was the dispersion of rules and standards in the financial services industry. Therefore, research proposals were developed around legislation and regulation in Fintech and the financial services industry.

Therefore, the aim of the present study is to identify and analyze the key factors and main drivers on the acceptance of community-based tourism in rural settlements of Shirvan county. The research method of this research is applied and based on its nature; it is descriptive-analytical. The information has been collected by documentary and field methods. The questionnaire for extracting key drivers affecting the formation of community-based tourism in rural settlements of Shirvan county has been prepared in the form of a micro-Mac questionnaire and has been distributed and completed among community members. 11 questionnaires were considered for rural experts and relevant organs. Micmac software was used to analyze the data and structurally analyze the effectiveness of each of the indicators affecting the formation of community-based tourism in rural areas. The results showed that due to the high score of direct and indirect impact, 16 factors were identified in 4 main groups of key drivers in the future of tourism development of rural settlements of Shirvan county, which factors:)2+) Indirect (961+), overall visitor satisfaction of tourist attractions and ranking according to the purpose of direct (2+) indirect visit (487+), diversity of investors in the tourism sector and increase of non-governmental investments in the direct village (1 +) Indirect (513+), suitable tourism climate, the existence of beautiful, amazing and unique landscapes and rich pastures and a variety of medicinal and edible plants, (1 +) indirect (297+) are the most important factors.

Introduction: The complexity and multidimensionality of urban problems and issues, along with the rapid growth of technology and the globalization of production patterns, have increased, and the instability of conditions and the possibility of various futures have made it difficult to make decisions and plan regarding urban issues. In such a situation, sustainable urban regeneration with a forward-looking approach can be a solution to the problems of inefficient urban tissues and especially historical tissues. Data and Method: In terms of practical purpose, the current research is based on the new methods of future research, analytical and exploratory science, which was carried out by applying a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. Research data has been collected using the survey method and cross-effects matrix. The exploratory analysis of the matrix of cross effects has been done using Micmac software. Results: Based on the diagram and dispersion of the variables on the map, the variables of this research are divided into five categories of influential input variables, two-way variables of risk and goal, and dependent variables and independent variables. Based on the intensity of influence and direct and indirect influence of the variables, finally, 9 key drivers were identified as the main factors of re-creating the historical context of Kerman city, which are the two-faceted and influential variables. Conclusion: The key drivers of re-creating the historical context of Kerman city are: preserving the originality of the design and effect, creating an integrated management of the historical context, reusing the building and modernizing the uses, functional diversity and creating vitality, creating legal and legal instruments, people's participation. and the private sector in the process of regeneration, paying subsidies and bank facilities and creating tax exemptions, a comprehensive model of planning and management and the role of culture and cultural industries in regeneration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper, Futures Studies of Iran's Oil Industry Supply Chain with Emphasis on Internal Factors. Supply chain plays an important role in the efficiency of providing products and services. This category is becoming more important in the oil industry, which is one of the competitive advantages of the country, and its development can create a lot of currency and employment for the country's economy. Methodology: The present research is applied in terms of orientation and exploratory in terms of purpose. Also, the philosophical foundations of research, pragmatism and its methodology are mixed. To conduct the research in the first stage, by reviewing the literature and interviewing oil industry experts, 16 key drivers of the research were extracted. After screening, 8 factors were removed by statistical tests and the rest of the factors were evaluated by Cross Impact Analysis technique. Findings: Based on the degree of effectiveness, the two drivers of government financing policies and oil companies' plans to improve and upgrade oil equipment were selected as important drivers for mapping oil industry supply chain scenarios. Originality/Value: Based on these two drivers, four scenarios of opportunistic supply chain, resource-oriented supply chain, new supply chain and old supply chain were mapped. According to the four criteria for evaluating scenarios in terms of probability of occurrence and application of CODAS technique, the opportunistic supply chain scenario was selected as the most probable scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction Recognizing and examining the housing situation in a country depends on identifying and analyzing the factors affecting housing. To assess the housing situation, housing indicators that express the quantity and quality of different dimensions of housing can be studied. Indicators are tools to measure the housing situation and its evolution, as well as assess the success rate and implementation of housing policies. Paying attention to the quantitative and qualitative indicators of housing is one of the most important issues in housing planning. Housing, as the most basic human need, has become very important in the life of urban communities, so that it has become one of the most effective components of measuring the quality and well-being of citizens. Futures studies are now well over 50 years old. Discussants pointed out that the term ‘futurology’ was first introduced by Ossip Flechteim in his 1966 book History and Futurology. Eleonora Masini suggested that Flechteim himself did not have a great deal of confidence in the term, nor was he sure whether the said discipline was a ‘science’ or a ‘prescientific’ branch of knowledge. But he was certain that the new field ranged from ‘the destiny of man, the future of his society to the entire range of his future cultural activities. The strongest defense of ‘futurology’ was provided by Pentti Malaska. Malaska argued, describes ‘what futures knowledge is all about – not only epistemologically, i.e. how to acquire knowledge of the future with different techniques for this or that pragmatic purpose but especially ontologically, i.e. what the knowledge of the future may mean. Dator’s First Law of Futures states, ‘The future cannot be ‘‘predicted’’ but alternative futures can be ‘‘forecasted’’. Warren Wagar in his The Next Three Futures and in tracing the history of future studies consistently uses the term ‘futurism’. Futures studies are a mosaic of approaches, objectives, and methods, and many parts of it are in different stages of evolution. Methodology The present research is applied in terms of its purpose and is descriptive-analytical in terms of its nature. To collect data has been used of statistical yearbooks, censuses of different periods as well as completing a questionnaire from 40 experts in the field of housing. To analyze the data and determine the strategic indicators has been used of the method of structural/cross-impact analysis approach with MICMAC software and to determine the most probable scenarios has been used of Wizard scenario software. Results and Discussion In the last 40 years in the metropolis of Tabriz, housing has improved in all quantitative indicators except the average number of rooms in a residential unit. Reasons for the decrease in the number of rooms in a residential unit are the change in the architectural style of houses and the transformation of households from widespread to nuclear. Information on the infrastructure of ​​residential units also shows that the infrastructure is moving towards standardization and the number of residential units with very low and very high infrastructure has been decreasing. Regarding the quality of housing, all indicators indicate an improvement of trend in the last 40 years, and the only indicator of the housing ownership, despite the increase in the number of owner-occupied households, shows a decrease in the percentage of owners and an increase in the percentage of tenants. Also among the 16 indicators affecting the quantitative and qualitative status of housing in the metropolis of Tabriz, 5 indicators of the average infrastructure of the residential unit, housing with a lifespan of fewer than 30 years, household density in the residential unit, person density in the residential unit and the average room in the residential unit known as strategic and key variables in the future state of housing and two scenarios were identified as the most likely scenarios in the housing sector in the metropolis of Tabriz. In the first scenario, we will see a decrease in the infrastructure of housing units, a decrease in household density and individual density in a housing unit, and a decrease in the average number of rooms per housing, and an increase in units with a lifespan of fewer than 30 years. In the second scenario, we will see the stability of the infrastructure of housing units, the stability of household density and individual density in the housing unit, and the stability average of rooms in housing, and continue to increase housing with a lifespan of fewer than 30 years. Conclusion The results of the present study show that all quantitative indicators of the housing situation in Tabriz have been improved in the last 40 years and only a slight downward trend is observed in the average room index in each residential unit. We also see acceptable growth in housing quality indicators. Although the research results indicate an improving trend in housing quality and quantity indicators in the Tabriz metropolis, there is still a long way to reach the ideal housing conditions. Therefore, to achieve a better quantitative and qualitative status of housing in Tabriz metropolis, conduct comprehensive housing plan studies, employ housing specialists and professors to plan and policy in the field of housing, identify diverse population groups and consider all population groups, age and income and construction of housing in accordance with the needs of each group, using the experiences and studies of successful countries in the field of housing and their adaptation to demographic, cultural and economic conditions of the geographical area and more emphasis on effective housing indicators along with other indicators in housing planning and construction is suggested.

Abstract: proper recognition and timely entry in new defence areas is always one of the concerns of designers and players in the field of cyber warfare. Evaluating of cyber power and identifying weaknesses and vulnerabilities in order to prevent surprises in future wars has a high degree of importance. In the present study, with a comprehensive and futuristic vision, the dimensions and components of cyber power in the field of cyber - defence of the Armed Forces were studied and scenarios were presented to evaluate the Cyber strength. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the cyber power of the Armed Forces (The cyber defence dimension). The statistical population and sample size were matched, including 20 experts in the field of cyber forces of the Armed Forces. The type of research is applied research and the method is exploratory in the first stage due to the recognition of the dimensions and components of the subject, and in the second stage, they are conducted using the futures studies and the emphasis on the scenario method. The result is that the cyber defence approach has four components, including: defence platform, cyber diplomacy, human factor and soft/hard ware. Also, the human factor component has a higher priority. It is recommended that the ICT Deputy of the Armed Forces the cyber power evaluation of the Armed Forces with emphasis on the cyber offensive dimension and in the form of a separate study is recommended.

Land-use change is one of the most important spatial phenomena that can affect the usage of energy technologies. In this study, land-use change in barren and residential areas in Alborz province in Iran was modeled using the cellular automata combined with the Markov Chain from 2001 to 2031. Due to adaptability to the environmental considerations, all protected areas were removed from the study area. Then, an economical and performance-based optimization model was developed; then, by using the status of the two land-use classes in 2031, an optimum scenario was identified for generating solar electricity. Based on the results, the optimum scenario involves installing distributed photovoltaic modules in 18.37 % of residential areas and setting up concentrated solar systems in 0.74 % of barren areas, simultaneously. Economic investigation of the optimum scenario showed that although there were some environmental and political benefits for using the solar electricity such as reduction of air pollutants and more energy safety, the optimum scenario will be costly and non-economical without the government’s financial supports.

The sustainable physical-spatial development of Mashhad urban complex is the prerequisite of attaining sustainable regional (provincial) and national development. This necessitates paying attention to the development of scenarios that set the ground for the development of Mashhad. In the study at hand, it was tried through the participation of the provincial managers and academic experts to identify first the key drivers of physical-spatial changes in the rural settlements of Mashhad urban complex and then the scenarios effective on the physical-spatial development of these settlements. This study was applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of research method. The data was collected through library research, document analysis, and survey (interview) methods. Examining scientific resources, 69 factors effective on the physical-spatial changes were identified, which were grouped into five dimensions. Then, 29 participants in two groups, namely the managers of the related organizations and academic experts, were interviewed. Data analysis was done based on future research techniques, including Schwartz model, structural analysis, and interaction analysis, using Micmac and Scenario Wizard software packages. The results showed that 512 scenarios have weak compatibility, and only one scenario has strong, sustainable compatibility (zero incompatibility) (2.8 percent of possible scenarios are credible). The first scenario, which is in positive direction, has the overall interaction effect score of 771 and compatibility value of 7, while the second scenario that expresses the fairly favorable conditions for the future of rural settlements has the overall interaction effect score of 736 and compatibility value of -2. The third scenario, which has the compatibility value of -3 and the overall interaction effect score of 695, can be one of the possible scenarios for the future physical-spatial changes in rural areas, too. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current vision of Tehran Metropolis depicts a sustainable city with a suitable structure for habitation. The accomplishment of such a landscape that knows sustainable housing as a crucial issue needs scrutiny. This study aimed to identify factors that help the officials reach the goals and to reach the results effective in revising future perspectives of urban planning. The research is applied and the collecting data method is documentary and field study. The study was done in the framework of a descriptive-analytical process. Using Delphi method, among 26 factors, 18 factors were classified as the most important ones in social, economic, physical, and environmental dimensions. Structural analysis using Mick Mac software shows that factors such as land, vertical development, housing quality and strength, water resources, natural crises, and accessibility are among the influential factors. For each of the factors, strategies and policies such as land value-added tax (VAT), construction of underground dams, elevation zoning, and insurance sector’s participation in constructing was offered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last decade of the 20th century, many socio-economic planners have identified tourism as a safe way with a very clear vision for rural development, especially the most disadvantaged. As the participation of local communities and decentralization is a long-standing planning authority, it is used as one of the accepted principles in the urban development programs of developed countries. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to identify and analyze the key factors and main drivers on the acceptance of community-based tourism in rural settlements of Shirvan County. The research method of this research is applied and based on its nature; it is descriptive-analytical. The information has been collected by documentary and field methods. The questionnaire for extracting key drivers affecting the formation of community-based tourism in rural settlements of Shirvan county has been prepared in the form of a Micmac questionnaire and has been distributed and completed among community members. 11 questionnaires were considered for rural experts and relevant organs. Micmac software was used to analyze the data and structurally analyze the effectiveness of each of the indicators affecting the formation of community-based tourism in rural areas. The results showed that due to the high score of direct and indirect impact, 16 factors were identified in 4 main groups of key drivers in the future of tourism development of rural settlements of Shirvan county, which factors:) 2+) Indirect (961+), overall visitor satisfaction of tourist attractions and ranking according to the purpose of direct (2+) indirect visit (487+), diversity of investors in the tourism sector and increase of non-governmental investments in direct village (1 +) Indirect (513+), suitable tourism climate, the existence of beautiful, amazing and unique landscapes and rich pastures and a variety of medicinal and edible plants, (1 +) indirect (297+) are the most important factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financial technology is the design and delivery of financial products and services through technology, and it is of great importance for industries and business development. The aim of this study is to identify the future of financial technology in Iran through the lens of scenario planning. For data analysis, the Binominal test and EDAS were used. Initially, 15 key drivers were extracted from a systematic review of the literature and interviews with experts. The number of experts in this study was 30 people who answered the questionnaires and expressed their views on the importance of factors in terms of the Likert scale. At this stage, 5 factors were excluded due to the significance coefficient. After screening the unimportant key factors, the key factors were assessed by experts using EDAS, and two drivers of the integration of financial technology laws and standards, and the ease of international exchanges manifested as the top priorities for experts. Based on these two drivers, four scenarios for the future of financial technology in Iran can be identified: the paradise of financial technology, the world of persecution, the abandoned island, and the hell of financial technology. Obviously, the financial technology paradise is the most desirable scenario, and the financial technology hell describes the worst.

Background: Scenario planning is one of the most crucial future study methods in uncertain and complex situations. Hospital supply chain resilience also requires an understanding of future events due to the complexity of relationships and exposure to unexpected circumstances. The purpose of this study is to formulate scenarios for the future development of hospital supply chain resilience. Materials & Methods: This research is the second stage of research with a mixed approach, and it is in the category of normative scenarios based on intuitive logic. Participants in this study were purposefully selected from the experts of two hospitals. In the first phase, the impact-uncertainty questionnaire and the effect-uncertainty diagram were used to determine the critical uncertainties. After forming the scenario team, based on the impact diagram and the scenario matrix, The cause and effect relationships of the variables were determined in the second phase. Results: Drivers of Hospital supply chain resilience were clustered into 14 main categories, and the results of the impact-uncertainty diagram showed that "peoplechr('39')s culture" and "accident nature" play a more significant role in scenario development as critical uncertainties. Four scenarios were developed based on the opinion of experts for these two drivers. Conclusion: four scenarios, "compatible," "turbulent," "broken," and "combative," were developed based on the critical drivers in supply chain hospital resilience. Use the inspirational feature of these scenarios can help managers in health and crisis management be more prepared to face the crisis. Scenarios based on intuitive logic can be used for futures studies in other areas of the health system.

Today, the coronavirus has become a pandemic and a major international concern. The virus has been able to give states powers that would not normally be possible. It has created many restrictions for them, either. In this regard, the purpose of this paper is the comparative study of the performance of the Iranian and Singaporean states dealing with the coronavirus, the political-social future of these two nations and the final status of the virus within the framework of future research method. Therefore, the question that arises is, "what has been the performance of Iran and Singapore dealing with the coronavirus, and what would be the political-social future of these countries and the final status of this virus?" The results show that Singapore's performance in confrontation with the coronavirus is faster, more planned, more legal and more transparent than in Iran. In terms of the future of both states, five scenarios can be proposed, which are in three categories: A) The Favorable Future: The End of Corona, Reduction of Job Costs for States and Improving the Knowledge System of Citizens. B) Probable Future: 1. Corona's gradual defeat, the emergence of the crisis of unemployed youth and maximum pressure on the State. 2. Gradual control of Corona, expansion of influence and intelligence dominance of States. 3. Corona's survival, the centralization of power and the closing of democratic space. C) Possible future: long-term failure of Corona, economic crisis and maximum pressure on the people and the emergence of social protests.

Today, urban areas, especially the central neighborhoods around the city center, are no longer acceptable habitats, as most residents has deprived of the lower classes, so urban planners and managers face many urban challenges, especially Urban Inefficient Tissues , Have focused their attention on sustainable programming using regeneration (Poorahmad, 2010: 76). In fact, sustainable urban regeneration, with an integrated, comprehensive and operational policy, will lead to the final solution of urban problems and the achievement of sustainable, economic, physical, social and environmental progress (Izadi, 2010: 17).Urban Inefficient Tissues, as the smallest cell and the most important factor in sustaining urban life, play a very important role in the future of the city; to face the problems of the future of cities, it is necessary to use the future-research approach to achieve sustainable development.Isfahan, as a historical city and the cultural capital of the Islamic world, like many other cities in the country, has many the Urban Inefficient Tissues in different urban areas. In the meantime, The Inefficient Tissues in district 14 in the 2016 is 312 hectares of the total of 830,244 of Inefficient Tissues of Isfahan city (Isfahan city statistics, 2015: 208 and Isfahan city statistics, 2016: 201) This district is known as the most widely the Inefficient Tissues in Isfahan.In this regard, the present study aims to create sustainable urban regeneration in Isfahan Municipality with the approach of programming the scenario of the base scenario, in order to identify the scenarios for Isfahan Municipality to achieve the desired perspective of sustainable regeneration in Urban Inefficient Tissues. In fact, it has implications for illustrating its future and providing a variety of strategies for achieving the desired future.

The study aimed to assess the opinions of a sample of faculty members in Palestinian universities regarding the obstacles that hinder the use of future study methods in educational research. To achieve this, the researcher followed the descriptive analytical method by administering a questionnaire consisting of obstacles distributed over three dimensions: (methodology, knowledge and desire and convictions) to 65 participants from Colleges of Education in Palestinian universities (Islamia – Al-Azhar – Al-Quds – Al-Aqsa). The results showed that the overall degree of the faculty members' assessment of the obstacles facing future study methods in educational research was (72.81%). The dimension (desire and convections) ranked first with a relative weight of (78.97%), followed by the (methodology) dimension with a relative weight of (73.81). The dimension (knowledge) came in third place with a relative weight of (73.56%). There were no statistically significant differences at the level (α≤0.05) between the mean scores of the participants' evaluation of these obstacles due to two variables (nature of work and age); while there were differences attributed to the factor of specialization in favor of curricula and teaching methods. The study concluded that the efforts of researchers in the field of future studies do not exceed the research achievement, without believing in the feasibility of its results. The study recommended enhancing the attitudes of graduate students towards future studies in the colleges of education

The purpose of this article is to investigate and explain the effects of the Covid-19 crisis on higher education. Futurology as an interdisciplinary field guides the orientation of this article. The results are presented in the form of future scenarios. The findings showed that higher education experts have already accepted the fact that the COVID-19 crisis has had impacts on higher education. Moreover, in their view, these effects are not simple and have wide and diverse dimensions. On average there was a fifty percent agreement on at least one of seven preferred scenarios mentioned above. Three major trends that are most likely to occur from the respondents' point of view are: strengthening e-learning (but not as a fundamental transformation and a complete online delivery of the content), a change in the academic lifestyle and paying more attention to sustainability. These three trends contain the most preferred scenarios.

Copyright of Iranian Journal of Range & Desert Research is the property of Research Institute of Forests & Rangelands and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Introduction Due to the expansion of cities and population growth, the study of residential satisfaction of residents to meet future needs and achieve sustainable development, has found a special place in various studies. Residential satisfaction is examined on the basis of many components and is considered as a tool for decision making and policy making. In this regard, the study of residential satisfaction in the city of Rasht as the largest and most populous city in Gilan province is important. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to assess the components of good urban governance in creating residential satisfaction in Rasht with a future study approach. The present study has been applied in terms of descriptive-analytical and exploratory methods. Data collection is by documentary method as well as survey based on Delphi technique. First, 35 factors were identified as effective factors in residential satisfaction in Rasht according to the components of good urban governance and in the next step, Micmac software was used to analyze the data and the type of questionnaire was a matrix of interactions and According to the opinions of experts and specialists in urban planning in Rasht. The weighting of this questionnaire is measured by pairwise comparisons and the relationship between variables and numbers between zero and three. Finally, 13 key factors were identified and 29 possible situations were considered for key factors. The Wizard Scenario Questionnaire was also designed as an interaction matrix and provided to experts. the questionnaire ranges from +3 to -3 varying. management and integrated urban planning, participation of local citizens and communities, the existence of infrastructure and mechanisms necessary for citizen intervention and cooperation with the municipality has the highest consistency value among key factors in improving the quality of the Rasht city's residential satisfaction within the framework of good urban governance.the study of residential satisfaction of residents has been one of the most important research topics in various fields. Residential satisfaction assessment is based on many components and covers a wide range; Such as social-components, cultural-components, physical-components, service-components, and economic-components There are several main reasons for paying special attention to this issue. From the first point of view, residents' evaluation of residential environments can be considered as one of the most important criteria for measuring the achievement of goals and evaluating the success rate of any project. From the second point of view, residential satisfaction is considered as one of the important indicators of the general quality of life of individuals. Rasht is the most populous city in Gilan province. For this reason, the existence of components of good urban governance in meeting the needs of this population and housing satisfaction of people is necessary. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the components of good urban governance in creating residential satisfaction. Materials and MethodsThe present study is applied in terms of descriptive-analytical method, which in line with the basics of futures science, research on the situation of residential satisfaction in the framework of good urban governance in Rasht. In this regard, data collection in the theoretical part by documentary method and in the practical part by survey, has been based on the Delphi technique. Due to the fact that Mick Mac software and Scenario Wizard have been used to analyze the data, the type of questionnaire is in the form of a matrix of interactions and is based on the opinions of experts and specialists. To identify the key factors by Mick Mac software, after identifying the factors affecting residential satisfaction, an interaction questionnaire was designed. Its validity was conducted by experts in the form of interviews. The statistical population of the study is 20 experts and specialists (geography and urban planning of Rasht). The weighting of this questionnaire is measured by pairwise comparisons and the relationship between variables and numbers between zero and three. Then, different possible situations were considered for each of the key factors and interaction effects were designed in the form of a questionnaire. Then the questionnaire was completed by the statistical community and through the Ensemble feature in the Scenario Wizard software, the questionnaires were entered into the software. Discussion and Results Mick Mac software and cross-matrix analysis have been used to extract the key factors affecting residential satisfaction in Rasht within the framework of good urban governance and the output of this software (key factors) will be used as input to the Wizard scenario software. 35 factors as effective factors in residential satisfaction in Rasht in the framework of good urban governance have been identified and studied with Mick Mac software to extract the main factors affecting residential satisfaction in Rasht (in this software the effect of variables on each other from zero to three Is valued). 29 possible situations were created for 13 key factors affecting the improvement of residential satisfaction in Rasht. The scenarios provided by ScenarioWizard software were 10,000 scenarios, of which 1294 are valid and 2 scenarios are highly compatible. Of the two scenarios with high compatibility, the first scenario shows the favorable conditions and the second scenario shows the critical conditions for the future of residential satisfaction in Rasht within the framework of good urban governance. In order to improve the situation of residential satisfaction, the possible probable situation should be strengthened and the possible critical situation should be weakened. Conclusion According to the obtained results, the first scenario is the best progressive scenario for improving the residential satisfaction situation in Rasht within the framework of good urban governance. With the realization of this scenario, 100% of the determinants of residential satisfaction in Rasht will be achieved. All 13 key factors in this scenario are among the possible probable situations and there are no critical and static factors in this scenario. The possible situations selected in this scenario have many positive effects on the factor of improving the residential satisfaction situation in Rasht within the framework of good urban governance. The second scenario is a critical scenario that with the realization of this scenario, the situation of influential factors in the future of residential satisfaction in Rasht will reach its worst. It is better for the initial measures to be in the direction of resolving the critical situations so that the system moves towards stability and the influential factors in the first scenario have their positive impact process. Integrated urban management and planning, citizen participation and local communities, the existence of necessary infrastructure and mechanisms for citizen intervention and cooperation of non-governmental organizations with the municipality are among the highest values of compatibility related to key factors in the future of residential satisfaction in Rasht.

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to identify and prioritize the positive and negative impacts of tourism on the process of tourism growth at a national scale in Iran, by taking into account the reviews of previous studies, views of experts and structural analysis. Design/methodology/approach - In this investigation, structural analysis technique has been used to identify the correlation between variables by using mix method data analysis. By using cross-impact analysis (N × N integer matrix) in the form of the Micmac method, the economic, sociocultural and environmental factors have been evaluated. Findings - The results of the distribution of factors in the coordinate axes and the graphs between them indicate their features, and for reaching a sustainable system of tourism development, at first, priority should be given to the negative influential factors, especially the environmental fields, and then the focus should be on the decrease of the dual and risk variables as they cannot be anticipated. Originality/value - For the rapid growth of tourism in many countries, governments ensure that policies have been heeded in designing and preparing general plans of the country to understand how the development trend is moving on. In this respect, arisen impacts of tourism system are one of the important issues during the development path and in the field of tourism future. Because of the complexity and broadness of tourism activities, these impacts have also many interconnected dimensions that should also be considered while studying tourism impacts.

Objective: The purpose of this study is to identify the factors affecting the future of Iran's standardization system in the field of production technology and identify and describe possible scenarios. Methods: Scenario is one of the methods of future-estimation study. In this research, using the cross-impact analysis method, an attempt was made to predict the probability of the effect of an event on another event. And then, the MICMAC software was used to perform the computation of such complex cross-sectional analysis matrix. Results: To this end, firstly, based on library studies and experts’ opinion, a list of the most important factors and variables that the affect the production standardization system was provided, and then the selected factors were identified through a questionnaire. On the next stage, the experts’ opinions were analyzed through designing a questionnaire for mutual effect and 9 factors were identified among the 24 listed factors as the final key factors (risk). Moreover, by designing an uncertainty questionnaire, attempts were made to determine the uncertainties and significance of each of these nine factors. Based on the results and calculations carried out on the results of this questionnaire, four future scenarios of the standardization system in the field of production technology were identified and ultimately described by the panel of experts in these scenarios. Conclusion: Based on the results, it was found that the two uncertainties of "production policies for creating a competitive environment in the industry" and "the possibility of providing modern equipment and machinery" have the highest coefficients and form the axes of the four scenarios derived from this study.

Objective: With increasing population density in cities, all of the economic, social, and cultural dimensions in cities have undergone fundamental changes. Alongside these issues, the security feeling in urban spaces has become one of the concerns of urban planners and managers. In fact, one of the main goals of urban planning is to decide in the present time that urban activities in the future will be well targeted for the benefit of its citizens. Explaining and describing the security of urban spaces in the future can reduce the occurrence of a variety of social anomalies. Methods: The present study aims to space analysis of the citizen's security feeling in urban spaces in terms of future study in Khorramabad city with a descriptive-exploratory approach based on documentary-survey resources. The studied statistical population is elite and experts in the field of security in urban spaces. MicMac software is used to analyze the information, structural analysis method and interaction effect matrix. Results:Regarding the effectiveness of the studied variables on the future of security feeling in Khorramabad, the results of the research showed that five effective variables include employment, income and social class, the effect of managers' mechanisms on reducing abnormalities, social and citizen feedback of each other and the rate surrounded of residential units on each other. Conclusion: Based on the variables affecting security management in urban spaces, it can be said that the state of instability is dominant in the system.

Introdution An increase in the population of elderly people in Iran in the future is an inevitable and significant process that should be examined from a variety of dimensions. The purpose of this study was to investigate the future study of Iran's elderly sports using cross-impact matrix. Methods: In this research cross impact analysis approach has been used as one of the future study methods. Initial variables of research was gathered using half-interviews with participants scholars and specialists in sport sciences, psychologists, social workers, sociologists, nurses, the managers of sanity offices, the Welfare Organization and the social council of municipality. Data validation criteria recommended by Lincoln & Guba was confirmed and then analyzed using Micmac software. Results: Results from using cross impact analysis approach suggested that the six key factors, namely, attention to the elderly, the creation of special organs for the elderly, the allocation of funds, the modeling of other countries, the design of long-term programs and the establishment of process-oriented strategies werethe most important factors for the future of elderly sports in Iran that should be considered in planning. Conclusion: The researcher has tried to analyze Iran's futur study of elderly sports. The results and findings of the research process and the proposed strategic recommendations can provide an appropriate setting for policymaking and designing strategies and policies for strategic managers in the elderly sports sector

Introduction: Businesses are increasingly developing and the essentials of survival in such highly competitive environment is making right and timely decisions requiring accurate, relevant, reliable and timely information. Hence, management accounting, as one of the main fundamentals of providing information needed for management, should be should keep up with developments. Method: This study is exploratory survey and it is applied in terms of purpose and is mixed based on data. The statistical population consisted of all faculty members and Ph.D. students of accounting, members of Iranian Accounting Management Association, and experts in management accounting. To identify the driving forces of management accounting over the next 20 years, initially experts’ panel, an open-ended questionnaire and an interview with experts were administered and then fuzzy Delphi method was used for the final consensus. Experts were selected through judgmental snowball sampling and theoretical saturation. To analyze the results of the Delphi method, the binomial test and fuzzy Delphi were applied. Results: According to the results, increasing demand for management accounting and balancing financial accounting against management accounting are the most significant and effective driving forces in the future. It is expected that management accounting finds its real status in the future and the same occurs for driving forces of rising customers’ expectations, customer orientation and an increase in the number of management accounting experts. All identified driving forces apart from bureaucracy and flattery-based administrative system were confirmed by the experts. Conclusion: In general, experts believe that the management accounting develops no appropriate status. It is suggested that officials and activists as well as all role-playing people should plan and attempt for improving the future of management accounting regarding the driving forces presented in this study.

Copyright of Hospital Journal is the property of Tehran University of Medical Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Introduction: Today, managers in the field of health and care, especially in hospitals, need to address not only the internal issues but also the social and environmental issues of their decisions and actions to improve financial performance and increase productivity. The purpose of this study was to improve the financial performance of hospitals through social responsibility future study. Methods: The method of this research was applied in terms of purpose, and according to the research methodology, it was a mix of quantitative and qualitative methodology consisting of phenomenology, content analysis, and future study. In the first step, phenomenological methods and interviews with experts were used to extract hospital financial performance indicators. In the second step, the content analysis method and systematic review on selected articles, dimensions, and indicators of social responsibility were extracted. Finally, as for the future study, the variables related to social responsibility were extracted through fuzzy delphi technique and analyzed using structural-interpretive model . Results: In the first step, 16 financial performance indicators were extracted. In the second step, the results of this phase showed the extraction of 35 proponents and four dimensions of economic, social, employee, and environmental social responsibility. In the last step, 20 variables related to social responsibility were extracted using the structural-interpretive model. The power of penetration and the degree of the dependence of the variables were determined. Conclusion: The research results showed that all the variables associated with social responsibility had a great deal of influence and instability powers. That is, any change that occurs on them affects both them as well as other variables. Since the main purpose of public hospitals is to provide quality services to all segments of society and satisfy them, Therefore, considering all dimensions and components of social responsibility increases productivity and consequently improves the financial performance of hospitals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The efficient supply chain plays an important role in the production and distribution of oil products and petrochemicals in the country. The present study seeks to identify key drivers and future scenarios for the oil supply chain. Orientation of the study is, applied and in terms of methodology is considered multiple. To this end, firstly, using the literature review and expert interviews, key drivers of the future of the oil supply chain were determined and then, by applying the binomial test, these factors were screened. By using GBN technique and considering three indicators of specialty, intensity and consensus, among the 10 factors that were screened, six key factors were selected for scenario analysis. For final screening of the selected factors in the GBN method was applied DEMATEL. Finally, due to the degree of influence of key factors, two factors of foreign sanctions and macroeconomic policies related to antifragility were selected for mapping scenarios. With regard to these two drivers, research scenarios include: closed supply chain, fragile supply chain, anti-fragile supply chain, dynamic supply chain. To map the plausible scenarios of the research, CATOWE's tool of SSM was used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Arab Journal for Quality Assurance in Higher Education is the property of University of Science & Technology and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In This article by using Foresight methods as cross impact balance and the scenario planning to identify strategic factors affecting the banking industry discussed the future And then the major scenarios ahead the banking industry are compiled and analyzed. Initial research data have been analyzed by using the mic mac software. The results obtained from the use of CIB showed that 10 key operating profitability, resources and expenditures, government and the economy, interest and reserve requirements, payments, capital adequacy, sanctions, laws and regulations, duty facilities and environment of economic uncertainty among identified factors will have the greatest impact and influence on the future of the banking industry, these basic factors used in scenario planning. In order to scenario planning at this stage of experts were consulted and ultimately the sum of 31 possible positions for 10 factors were defined. Possible position for any of a variety of situations covered unfavorable to favorable. An analysis performed by the scenario wizard software, 5 strong scenarios and 9 believable scenarios of based on 31 possible positions on the 10 key driving was extracted.