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Construction crew productivity is affected by the motivation of the crew performing given activities and by situational/contextual factors forming the dynamic construction environment. The literature lacks a comprehensive analysis of causal relationships between crew motivation and situational/contextual factors for dynamic modelling of crew productivity. The contributions of this paper are (1) identifying a set of criteria for performing expert weight assignment for heterogenous group experts in productivity research, (2) proposing an integrated fuzzy analytic hierarchy process-fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory approach that provides a systematic, structured method for determining causal relationship mapping between factors affecting crew productivity, and (3) proposing an approach for identifying cause-and-effect groups among the situational/contextual factors and crew motivation, which can further be used to formulate strategic productivity improvement solutions. The proposed methodology is demonstrated using a case study on an actual industrial construction project in Alberta, Canada. Key words: construction crew productivity, construction crew motivation, fuzzy AHP, fuzzy DEMATEL, qualitative modelling, Aminah Robinson Fayek^orcid.org/0000-0002-3744-273X 1. Introduction Construction productivity plays a significant role in determining a construction project's success; therefore, it is a major research area. Construction productivity problems include assessing factors [...]

Evaluating the priority of any school capital project is still considered unique because of its attachment to the fundamental human right, 'the right to education', and the prioritization methodology for school infrastructure projects has yet to be formalized. This paper presents a comprehensive framework and enhances the prioritization process of school infrastructure projects by quantifying project needs. The proposed 'school project needs evaluation framework' consists of two parts. The first part describes the input selection process and integration of the fuzzy expert system to evaluate the school project's need as a quantitative term. The fuzzy rule-based system was developed in consultation with domain experts. The second part leverages the fuzzy expert system designed in the first part and quantifies the new school capacity and construction project type. The application steps of the automation solution developed based on the proposed framework are presented using examples. Key words: fuzzy expert system, school capital project, project prioritization, school infrastructure need, fuzzy logic, 1. Introduction Supporting the goal of providing universal access to education requires public sector owners to invest in school capital projects. Capital investments are essential to address evolving capacity needs [...]

Finding suitable areas for the establishment of commercial forest plantations is a crucial step towards the technical and financial viability of forestry enterprises. Thus, this study aimed to propose an alternative methodology to define areas with greater potential for the establishment of commercial forest plantations through the application of fuzzy logic. Edaphoclimatic zoning of the main forest genetic materials used in the state, land use classes, road networks, terrain slopes, and environmental regulation of rural properties was included in the modeling. In addition, a network analysis was applied to delimit the optimal transport radius. The results referring to the optimal areas for forest planting, according to the model, obtained an average of 80.39% assertiveness in the validation test in relation to areas already consolidated with forest plantations in the study area, demonstrating the potential of fuzzy logic to find areas favorable for future plantations, with low cost involved in prospecting areas. Therefore, it is concluded that the proposed methodology has high accuracy and low processing cost and can be used to improve planning. Its application can be expanded to other Brazilian regions as well as other countries. Key words: forest management system, strategic planning, forest zone, wood transportation, forest harvesting Trouver des zones appropriees pour l'etablissement de plantations forestieres commerciales est une etape essentielle pour assurer la viabilite technique et financiere des entreprises forestieres. Ainsi, cette etude visait a proposer une methodologie alternative pour definir les zones ayant un plus grand potentiel pour l'etablissement de plantations forestieres commerciales par l'application de la logique floue. Le zonage edapho-climatique des principaux materiaux genetiques forestiers utilises dans la region, les classes d'utilisation des terres, les reseaux routiers, les pentes du terrain et la reglementation environnementale des proprietes rurales ont ete inclus dans la modelisation. De plus, une analyse de reseau a ete appliquee pour delimiter le rayon de transport optimal. Les resultats se referant aux zones optimales pour la plantation de forets, selon le modele, ont obtenu une moyenne de 80,39 % d'assertivite dans le test de validation par rapport aux zones deja consolidees avec des plantations forestieres dans la zone d'etude, demontrant le potentiel de la logique floue pour trouver des zones favorables pour de futures plantations, avec un faible cout implique dans la prospection des zones. Par consequent, on peut conclure que la methodologie proposee a une grande precision et un faible cout de traitement, et peut etre utilisee pour ameliorer la planification. Son application peut etre etendue a d'autres regions bresiliennes ainsi qu'a d'autres pays. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles: systeme de gestion forestiere, planification strategique, zone forestiere, transport du bois, exploitation forestiere, 1. Introduction The exponential growth in the human population, along with the consequent increase in demand for raw materials of forest origin, has been responsible for increasing the need to [...]

Housing constitutes a basic need for all living beings. Unfortunately, natural hazards, including floods, pose a severe threat to housing infrastructure systems. In turn, this paper develops a framework to quantify the resilience of housing infrastructure systems against flood hazards. The parameters for this resilience are based on the literature and knowledge from experts. This paper gauges the significance of each resilience parameter by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the fuzzy AHP. The evaluated values are then compared to observe the effectiveness of fuzzy AHP over AHP. The evaluated importance of each parameter will help stakeholders focus on the most important parameters and, in turn, boost the flood resilience of infrastructure. This paper then implements the developed framework in a study area to quantify local flood resilience. This resilience value will help stakeholders in the considered area to understand the resilience of local housing infrastructure. Key words: flood resilience, housing infrastructure, analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy set theory, reliability and recovery. Le logement constitue un besoin fondamental pour tous les etres humains. Malheureusement, les dangers naturels, y compris les inondations, constituent une menace grave pour les systemes d'infrastructures liees au logement. Par consequent, le present document elabore un cadre pour quantifier la resilience aux risques d'inondation des systemes d'infrastructures liees au logement. Les parametres de cette resilience sont bases sur la litterature et les connaissances des experts. Le present document evalue l'importance de chaque parametre de resilience a l'aide de la methode de hierarchie multicritere (MHM) et de la MHM floue. Les valeurs evaluees sont ensuite comparees pour observer l'efficacite de la MHM floue par rapport a la MHM. L'importance evaluee de chaque parametre aidera les parties prenantes a se concentrer sur les parametres les plus importants et, par consequent, a renforcer la resilience aux inondations des infrastructures. Ce document met ensuite en oeuvre le cadre elabore dans une zone d'etude pour quantifier la resilience aux inondations au niveau local. Cette valeur de resilience aidera les intervenants de la region consideree a comprendre la resilience des infrastructures de logement au niveau local. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles : resilience aux inondations, infrastructure liee au logement, methode de hierarchie multicritere (MHM), theorie des ensembles flous, fiabilite et retablissement., Introduction Resilience is the ability of a system to resist the effects of a natural or man-made disaster and return to its standard state after the fact (Cimellaro et al. [...]

Predicting and optimizing performance in earthmoving operations is critical, because they are essential to many construction projects. The complexity of modeling earthmoving operations remains challenging, even with several modeling techniques available, including simulation. This paper advances the state-of-the-art of modeling earthmoving operations by introducing a hybrid fuzzy system dynamics-discrete event simulation framework with the capacity to: capture the dynamism of performance in earthmoving operations; capture subjective uncertainty of several factors affecting them; model their sequential nature and resource constraints; and determine actual travel time, in real time, using online navigation systems. Findings from this research confirm the proposed framework (i) extends the application of simulation techniques for modeling construction processes involving dynamic input variables and subjective uncertainty, through its ability to capture the non-probabilistic uncertainty of construction systems, and (ii) when combined with the use of online navigation systems to assess trucks' travel time, improves the accuracy of earthmoving operation models. Key words: construction modeling, hybrid simulation, system dynamics, discrete event simulation, fuzzy logic. Il est essentiel de prevoir et d'optimiser le rendement des operations de terrassement, car elles sont essentielles a de nombreux projets de construction. La complexite de la modelisation des operations de terrassement constitue un defi, meme avec plusieurs techniques de modelisation disponibles, y compris la simulation. Cet article fait progresser l'etat de la technique de modelisation des operations de terrassement en introduisant un cadre de simulation a evenements discrets et de dynamique de systeme flou hybride avec la capacite de : capter le dynamisme du rendement dans les operations de terrassement; saisir l'incertitude subjective de plusieurs facteurs qui les touchent; modeliser leur nature sequentielle et leurs contraintes en matiere de ressources; et determiner le temps de deplacement, en temps reel, a l'aide des systemes de navigation en ligne. Les resultats de cette recherche confirment que le cadre propose (i) etend l'application des techniques de simulation pour la modelisation des processus de construction impliquant des variables d'entree dynamiques et de l'incertitude subjective, grace a sa capacite a saisir l'incertitude non probabiliste des systemes de construction et (ii) lorsqu'il est combine a l'utilisation de systemes de navigation en ligne pour evaluer le temps de deplacement des camions, ameliore la precision des modeles d'operations de terrassement. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles : modelisation de la construction, simulation hybride, dynamique de systeme, simulation d'evenements discrets, logique floue., 1. Introduction Due to the increasing complexity of construction systems (e.g., construction activities, operations, and projects), numerous managerial techniques have been developed or adapted from other engineering disciplines to model [...]

The construction industry is entering the digital age, which offers innovative digitalization opportunities (DOs) regarding cost efficiency, project management, and improved client experience. In their early efforts to implement DOs, construction organizations have had varying degrees of success, and the results prompted organizations to question whether they have the appropriate digital strategy and capabilities. Hence, construction organizations need a framework to systematically evaluate the potential benefits of implementing DOs and factors influencing their successful implementation. This paper presents a framework that supports decision makers in construction organizations to assess DOs based on experts' judgement of the factors influencing their successful implementation. The framework incorporates fuzzy arithmetic and linguistic evaluation to capture experts' subjective assessments and is implemented in the Digitalization Opportunities Road Mapping Tool (DORMT[C]). DORMT[C], which allows organizations to evaluate individual DOs, rank multiple DOs, and identify the best options for implementing digitalization within their organization. Key words: fuzzy logic, fuzzy arithmetic, construction, linguistic evaluation, digitalization. L'industrie de la construction entre dans l'ere numerique, offrant des possibility de numerisation (PN) innovatrices en matiere de rentabilite, de gestion de projet et d'amelioration de l'experience client. Dans leurs premiers efforts visant a mettre en reuvre les PN, les organismes de construction ont connu divers degres de succes, et les resultats ont amene les organismes a se demander si elles ont la strategie et les capacites numeriques appropriees. Par consequent, les organismes de construction ont besoin d'un cadre pour evaluer systematiquement les avantages potentiels de la mise en reuvre des PN et les facteurs qui influent sur une mise en reuvre reussie. Ce document presente un cadre qui aide les decideurs des organismes de construction a evaluer les PN en fonction du jugement des experts sur les facteurs influant sur leur mise en reuvre reussie. Le cadre integre une evaluation arithmetique et linguistique floue pour saisir les evaluations subjectives des experts et il est mis en reuvre dans l'outil de modelisation des possibilites de numerisation (<< Digitalization Opportunities Road Mapping Tool, DORMT[C] >>). DORMT[C] permet aux organismes d'evaluer chaque PN, de classer plusieurs PN et de determiner les meilleures options pour la mise en reuvre de la numerisation au sein de leur organisme. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles: logique floue, arithmetique floue, construction, evaluation linguistique, numerisation., 1. Introduction The digital age has ushered in the proliferation and democratization of data (Wong et al. 2018), and over the past two decades, the use and availability of digital [...]

Earned value management (EVM) is a well-known technique for measuring project performance and progress. Owing to the EVM's attitude to simultaneously combine cost and time performance, project performance can be forecasted accurately, and this plays a vital role in the future of the projects. In the current study, the authors employed an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) as a powerful prediction tool to forecast the completion cost of the projects considering the percentage of risk for qualitative variables and comparing it with other types of neural networks. Because the network structure is usually tuned based on the obtained results, a network optimization procedure is applied using a conventional method for estimating the cost-caused project breakdown. The results showed that ANFIS had a suitable performance (MSE = 0.0003), and based on the sensitivity analysis, the earned value is recognized as the most sensitive factor in the project. This study improves the general estimate of the completion formula by considering the uncertain conditions. Key words: earned value management, construction projects, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), project cost management, estimate at completion (EAC). La gestion de la valeur acquise (GVA) est une technique bien connue pour mesurer le rendement et l'avancement de projets. Grace a l'approche de la GVA qui combine simultanement l'evolution des couts et les delais d'execution, le rendement de projets peut etre prevu avec precision, ce qui joue un role essentiel dans l'avenir des projets. Dans la presente etude, les auteurs ont utilise le systeme d'inference neuro-floue adaptatif (SINFA) comme outil de prediction puissant pour prevoir le cout d'achevement des projets en tenant compte du pourcentage de risque pour les variables qualitatives, et en le comparant avec d'autres types de reseaux neuronaux. Etant donne que la structure du reseau est generalement ajustee en fonction des resultats obtenus, la procedure d'optimisation du reseau est appliquee a l'aide d'une methode conventionnelle pour estimer les couts ayant cause des difficultes au projet. Les resultats ont montre que le SINFA avait un rendement approprie (EQM = 0,0003) et, selon l'analyse de sensibilite, la valeur acquise est reconnue comme le facteur le plus sensible dans le projet. Le present document ameliore la formule generale d'estimation a l'achevement en tenant compte des conditions incertaines. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles : gestion par la valeur acquise, projets de construction, systeme d'inference neuro-floue adaptatif (SINFA), gestion des couts de projet, estimation a l'achevement (EA)., Introduction Project management involves implementing knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques in project activities to meet the project's requirements and constraints. There are three main constraints in the projects: time, cost, [...]

In spite of successful tests, the standard cosmological model, the [Formula omitted]CDM model, possesses the most problematic concept: the initial singularity, also known as the big bang. In this paper-by adopting the Kantian difference between to think of an object and to cognize an object-it is proposed a degree of scientificity using fuzzy sets. Thus, the notion of initial singularity will not be conceived of as a scientific issue because it does not belong to the fuzzy set of what is known. Indeed, the problematic concept of singularity is some sort of what Kant called the noumenon, but science, on the other hand, is constructed in the phenomenon. By applying the fuzzy degree of scientificity in cosmological models, one concludes that cosmologies with a contraction phase before the current expansion phase are potentially more scientific than the standard model. At the end of this article, it is shown that Kant's first antinomy of pure reason indicates a limit to our cosmological models., Author(s): Juliano C. S. Neves [sup.1] Author Affiliations: (1) grid.412368.a, 0000 0004 0643 8839, Centro de Ciências Naturais e Humanas, Universidade Federal do ABC, , Avenida dos Estados 5001, 09210-580, [...]

The development of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) has now reached some entirely unexpected domains. Many applications in modern cities lead to novelties, resulting in new habits of the citizens of tomorrow's smart cities. These innovations include Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). An important application domain of ITS is undoubtedly represented by the dynamic and optimized management of traffic-lighted road intersections. Although several works have already been presented in the literature over the years, many have not considered the new perspectives regarding the source of data to manage traffic lights, i.e., not only Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs), but, mainly, the vehicular communications. This paper introduces an innovative approach to dynamically regulating traffic light cycles and phases in an isolated intersection. The suggested method can fit data management from WSNs and vehicular communications through IEEE 802.11p and LTE-V2V, employing various Fuzzy Logic Controllers (FLCs) that manage vehicles turning movements for dynamic controls of both the phase and the green time of traffic lights. The results obtained will allow us to observe that the proposed application is better than the others. Each of the implemented configurations will bring advantages and disadvantages that allow choosing one configuration or another based on specific project requirements., Author(s): Fabio Arena [1]; Giovanni Pau [1]; Anca Ralescu [2]; Alessandro Severino (corresponding author) [3]; Ilsun You [4] 1. Introduction Many countries are experiencing a rapid increase in the growth [...]

Past research on how opportunism in buyer-supplier relationships can be mitigated remains incomplete and often contradictory. Applying recent advances in qualitative comparative analysis to a sample of 137 buyer-supplier relationships in the German automotive industry, we show that there are multiple equifinal pathways to high and low opportunism. In general, our study shows that it is easier to avoid high opportunism than to consistently achieve low opportunism. On this basis, we offer new insights into countering opportunism for researchers and managers. Achieving low opportunism requires a combination of governance mechanisms, which are generally not interchangeable. In particular, relational governance mechanisms in isolation seem to be more restricted than prior research has suggested but form a powerful synergistic combination with complex contracts. Although formal governance mechanisms lack enforceability, the coordination and monitoring that they provide are critical in both avoiding high opportunism and achieving low opportunism. Performance ambiguity is especially difficult to manage. Overall, our paper shows the power of configurational approaches and encourages the development of new theory that adopts a situational contingency perspective. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2018.1227. Keywords: opportunism * transaction hazards * governance mechanisms * fuzzy set QCA, Introduction There is broad consensus that opportunistic behavior imposes costs and lowers performance (Dahlstrom and Nygaard 1999, Luo 2007). Nevertheless, our understanding of how to mitigate opportunism in relationships (that [...]

Construction companies need a knowledge management system to collate, share and ultimately apply this knowledge in various projects. One of the most important elements that determine the time estimates of any construction project is productivity. Such projects have a predilection towards uncertainty and therefore require new generation of prediction models that utilizes available historical data. The research presented in this paper develops, using fuzzy approach, a knowledge base to analyze, extract and infer any underlying patterns of the data sets to predict the duration and productivity of a construction process. A six-step protocol has been followed to create this model: (i) determine which factors affect productivity; (ii) select those factors that are critical; (iii) build the fuzzy sets; (iv) generate the fuzzy rules and models; (v) develop the fuzzy knowledge base; and (vi) validate the efficacy and function of these models in predicting the productivity construction process. The fuzzy knowledge base was validated and verified using a case study and the results were satisfactory with 92.00% mean validity. In conclusion, the developed models and system demonstrated the ability of a knowledge base management to predict the patterns and productivity of different construction operations. Key words: model, knowledge base, construction. Les entreprises de construction ont besoin d'un systeme de gestion des connaissances pour regrouper, partager et en fin de compte appliquer ces connaissances dans le contexte de divers projets. Un des elements les plus importants qui determine les estimations de duree tout projet de construction est la productivite. De tels projets tendent vers l'incertitude et requierent donc une nouvelle generation de modeles predictifs qui utilise des donnees historiques disponibles. La recherche presentee dans cet article developpe, au moyen de la theorie des ensembles flous, une base de connaissances afin d'analyser, d'extraire et de deduire toute tendance sous-jacente des ensembles de donnees afin de prevoir la duree et la productivite d'un processus de construction. On a suivi un protocole en six etapes pour creer ce modele: (i) determiner quels facteurs influent sur la productivite; (ii) choisir les facteurs qui sont critiques; (iii) construire les ensembles flous; (iv) generer les regles et les modeles flous; (v) developper la base de connaissances floue; et (vi) valider l'efficacite et la fonction de ces modeles dans la prevision de la productivite d'un processus de construction. La base de connaissances floue a ete validee et verifiee a l'aide d'une etude de cas et les resultats etaient satisfaisants avec une validite moyenne de 92,00 %. Bref, les modeles developpes ont fait la preuve de la capacite d'un systeme de gestion de base de connaissances a prevoir les tendances et la productivite des differentes activites de construction. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles: modele, base de connaissances, construction., Introduction Productivity, defined as 'the ratio of output of required quality to the inputs' (Al-Zwainy et al. 2013), is a vital factor regarding the management of construction projects and predicting [...]

This study investigated the challenges of calibration of the PARAMICS microscopic simulation model for the local traffic conditions in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It proposed an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) based calibration protocol for the PARAMICS model. The developed ANFIS model performs adequately in modeling the queue length as a function of two key calibration parameters, namely mean headway time and mean reaction time. The selected values of the calibration parameters obtained through the ANFIS modeling approach were used as the input parameters for the PARAMICS model. The error indices such as mean absolute errors and mean absolute percentage errors of the developed ANFIS model in predicting the queue lengths varied between 1.11 and 1.24, and between 3.44 and 4.06, respectively. The conformance of the PARAMICS output and the measured queue length indicates the validity of the proposed calibration protocol. Key words: microscopic simulation model, PARAMICS model, microscopic model calibration, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), Saudi Arabia. Dans le cadre de cette etude, on a examine les defis que presente le calibrage du modele de simulation microscopique PARAMICS reproduisant les conditions de trafic local au Royaume d'Arabie saoudite. On a propose un protocole de calibrage fonde sur un systeme adaptatif neuronal a inference floue (ANFIS) pour le modele PARAMICS. Le modele d'ANFIS developpe fonctionne de maniere adequate en matiere de la modelisation du temps de la file d'attente en fonction de deux parametres de calibrage cles, soit l'intervalle entre les passages et le temps moyen de reaction-perception. On a utilise les valeurs choisies des parametres de calibrage obtenus par l'approche de modelisation ANFIS comme parametres d'entree pour le modele PARAMICS. Les indices d'erreur soit l'ecart moyen et l'ecart moyen en pourcentage mesures entre les previsions du modele d'ANFIS developpe et le temps de la file d'attente variaient entre 1,11 et 1,24, et entre 3,44 et 4,06, respectivement. La conformite des resultats PARAMICS avec le temps mesure de la file d'attente indique la validite du protocole de calibrage propose. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles: modele de simulation microscopique, modele PARAMICS, modele de calibrage microscopique, systeme adaptatif neuronal a reference floue (ANFIS), Arabie saoudite., Introduction Microscopic simulation traces individual vehicles within the network and individual vehicle movements that can be drawn for both lateral and longitudinal movements. It mainly uses car-following, lane-changing, and gap-acceptance [...]

Introduction Several neuroimaging studies support the model of abnormal development of brain connectivity in patients with autism-spectrum disorder (ASD1) and specifically support the hypothesis of reduced brain functional integration (underconnectivity) [...], Background: Several neuroimaging studies support the model of abnormal development of brain connectivity in patients with autismspectrum disorders (ASD). In this study, we aimed to test the hypothesis of reduced functional network segregation in autistic patients compared with controls. Methods: Functional MRI data from children acquired under a resting-state protocol (Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange [ABIDE]) were submitted to both fuzzy spectral clustering (FSC) with entropy analysis and graph modularity analysis. Results: We included data from 814 children in our analysis. We identified 5 regions of interest comprising the motor, temporal and occipitotemporal cortices with increased entropy (p < 0.05) in the clustering structure (i.e., more segregation in the controls). Moreover, we noticed a statistically reduced modularity (p < 0.001) in the autistic patients compared with the controls. Significantly reduced eigenvector centrality values (p < 0.05) in the patients were observed in the same regions that were identified in the FSC analysis. Limitations: There is considerable heterogeneity in the fMRI acquisition protocols among the sites that contributed to the ABIDE data set (e.g., scanner type, pulse sequence, duration of scan and resting-state protocol). Moreover, the sites differed in many variables related to sample characterization (e.g., age, IQ and ASD diagnostic criteria). Therefore, we cannot rule out the possibility that additional differences in functional network organization would be found in a more homogeneous data sample of individuals with ASD. Conclusion: Our results suggest that the organization of the whole-brain functional network in patients with ASD is different from that observed in controls, which implies a reduced modularity of the brain functional networks involved in sensorimotor, social, affective and cognitive processing.

Different sources of uncertainties contribute to the collapse and safety assessment of structures. In this paper, impact of construction quality (CQ) is considered in developing analytical collapse fragility curves for moment resisting steel frames. Furthermore, the interaction of this source of uncertainty with epistemic uncertainty inherent in modeling parameters, due to lack of knowledge and inaccuracy of predictor equations, is investigated. Beam strength, column strength, beam ductility, and column ductility meta-variables are defined as modeling parameters which are being suffered by informal uncertainty. Quadratic equations for the mean and the standard deviation of collapse fragility curves are derived by utilizing response surfaces, which are interpolated to analytically-derived values considering realizations for modeling variables and for various levels of construction quality. To the best of the authors' knowledge, interaction of modeling and CQ uncertainty in analytical collapse fragility curve has not been considered in previous investigations. A fuzzy rule-based method is applied to employ the effects of uncertainty due to CQ. Using Monte Carlo simulation for the modeling variables and the construction quality index, and subsequently computing response surface coefficients via a fuzzy inference system, and finally deriving collapse fragility curve parameters through response surfaces, result in collapse fragility curves of structures. In developing these curves, different sources of uncertainties are involved, ranging from lexical to informal and stochastic types. It is concluded that neglecting the effects of these sources leads to the underestimation of collapse fragility probability. This shows the importance of considering modeling and construction quality uncertainty effects on collapse fragility curves. It is shown that for a sample moment resisting steel frame collapse probability is increased 53% and 60% for 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years seismic hazard levels, respectively, while interaction of CQand modeling uncertainties are considered in comparison with neglecting them. Otherwise, if only modeling uncertainty is involved, this increment is evaluated at 42% and 16%, respectively for the aforementioned probabilities of exceedance. Key words: collapse fragility curves, uncertainty sources, fuzzy inference system, moment resisting steel structures, incremental dynamic analysis, response surface method. Differentes sources d'incertitudes ont un impact sur revaluation des risques d'effondrement de constructions et de la securite de ces dernieres. Dans le present article, on tient compte de l'impact de la qualite de construction (QC) lorsque l'on con^oit les courbes analytiques de fragilite face au risque d'effondrement dans le cas de structures en acier resistant au moment. En outre, on etudie l'interaction entre ces sources d'incertitudes et l'incertitude epistemique inherente aux parametres de modelisation, en raison du peu de connaissances dont on dispose et du manque de precision des equations predictives. Les metavariables que sont la resistance d'une poutre, la resistance d'une colonne, la ductilite d'une poutre et la ductilite d'une colonne sont definies comme etant des parametres de modelisation qui presentent une incertitude informelle. On etablit des equations quadratiques permettant de determiner les deviations moyenne et standard des courbes de fragilite en se servant de surfaces de reponse, que l'on interpole sous forme de valeurs determinees de maniere analytique tout en considerant les realisations associees aux variables de modelisation et a differents niveaux de qualite de construction. A la connaissance de l'auteur, l'interaction entre la modelisation et l'incertitude liee a la QC dans la courbe analytique de fragilite n'a jamais ete prise en compte dans les precedentes etudes. Une methode approximative basee sur des lois est utilisee pour tenir compte des effets des incertitudes dues a la QC. On utilise la simulation de Monte Carlo appliquee aux variables de modelisation a l'indice de qualite de construction, puis on calcule les coefficients de surface de reponse au moyen d'un systeme d'inference approximative, pour finalement obtenir les parametres de la courbe de fragilite par l'intermediaire des surfaces de reponse. On obtient ainsi les courbes de fragilite des structures etudiees. Lors de la conception de ces courbes, differentes sources d'incertitudes entrent en jeu, de type lexical, informel ou stochastique. On conclut que le fait de negliger les effets de ces sources entrame une sous-estimation de la probabilite de fragilite face au risque d'effondrement. Cela prouve qu'il est important de tenir compte l'impact des incertitudes liees a la modelisation et a la qualite de construction sur les courbes de fragilite face au risque d'effondrement. On demontre que pour une structure en acier determinee resistant au moment, la probabilite d'effondrement augmente de 53 % et de 60 %, respectivement pour des probabilites d'augmentation des niveaux d'alea sismique de 10 % et de 2 % sur 50 ans, dans la mesure ou l'on prefere prendre en compte les interactions entre la QC et les incertitudes liees a la modelisation plutot que les negliger. Par ailleurs, si l'on tient seulement compte des incertitudes liees a la modelisation, alors ces taux d'augmentation sont estimes a 42 % et 16 %, respectivement pour les valeurs de probabilites d'augmentation mentionnees ci-dessus. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles : courbes de fragilite face au risque d'effondrement, sources d'incertitudes, systeme d'interference approximative, structures en acier resistant au moment, analyse dynamique incrementielle, methode de la surface de reponse., Introduction Extensive economic losses, caused by recent earthquakes have resulted in an increased attention and research towards seismic evaluation of existing buildings, while various sources of uncertainties are involved (Armenia [...]

In northern riverside communities, breakup ice jam flooding is an annual threat to properties and human lives. In this study, the peak snowmelt runoff during breakup was assessed as an indicator of breakup flood severity. Due to the sparse network of hydrometeorolocial data in remote northern regions, a Mamdani-type fuzzy logic system (FLS) was developed and tested with the limited historical data. Three input variables were defined from the precipitation, air temperature and daily water level data. All of these variables are known ~3 to 4 weeks before breakup enabling a long lead-time forecast. The process of system development is demonstrated by a case study of the Town of Hay River, NWT Canada. A series of experiments were designed to select the best system configuration, which also provided a way to conduct a sensitivity analysis for different choices in each system component. It was found that the system shows very good performance on the historical data using the qualitative error index. The results of the sensitivity analysis suggest the system performance is dependent on the choices of fuzzy logic inference operators and defuzzification method. As a long lead system, the short-term meteorological factors that would affect the system output were analyzed and the possible error range was assessed. Preliminary model validation, based on three years of testing, shows promising performance. Key words: snowmelt, peak runoff, breakup ice jam flood, fuzzy set theory, Mamdani-type fuzzy logic system. Chez les communautes riveraines nordiques, les inondations causees par des embacles de glace constituent une menace annuelle aux proprietes et aux vies humaines. Dans le cadre de cette etude, on a evalue l'ecoulement de pointe de la fonte des neiges durant la debacle en tant qu'indicateur de la gravite des crues dues aux embacles de glace. En raison du reseau de donnees hydrometeorologiques insuffisantes pour les regions nordiques eloignees, un systeme a logique floue (FLS) de type Mamdani a ete developpe et teste avec les donnees historiques restreintes. On a defini trois variables d'entree a partir des donnees sur les precipitations, la temperature de l'air et le niveau d'eau journalier. Toutes ces variables sont connues ~3 a 4 semaines avant l'embacle permettant une prevision avec un bon delai de preavis. On demontre le processus de developpement du systeme par une etude de cas de la ville de Hay River, T.N.-O. au Canada. On a concu une serie d'experiences dans le but de choisir la meilleure configuration de systeme, ce qui a aussi donne un moyen de faire une analyse de sensibilite pour differents choix concernant chaque element du systeme. On a trouve que le systeme demontre une tres bonne performance quant aux donnees historiques utilisant un indice d'erreur qualitatif. Les resultats de l'analyse de sensibilite semblent indiquer que la performance du systeme est dependante des choix des operateurs d'inference de logique floue et de la methode de clarification. En tant que systeme a long delai, les facteurs meteorologiques a court terme pouvant avoir un effet sur les extrants du systeme ont ete analyses et la gamme d'erreurs possibles analysee. La validation preliminaire du systeme, reposant sur trois annees d'essais, demontre une performance prometteuse. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles: fonte des neiges, ecoulement de pointe, crue due aun embacle de glace, theorie des ensembles flous, systeme a logique floue (FLS) de type Mamdani., Introduction Breakup ice-jams are frequent on many northern rivers, particularly in the vicinity of river confluences, islands, tight channel bends, and in deltas. Although there are beneficial aspects for northern [...]

Fuzzy sets have previously been applied to photographic target stimuli. In this paper, we use the same technology to construct a set of natural sites in the San Francisco Bay area. We created a Universal Set of Elements containing 13 items which created five orthogonal categories: Buildings, Ponds, Towers, Gardens, and Bridges; 22 sites were identified and were independently coded by two volunteers. Thus, the fuzzy sets that represent these sites are a reasonable consensus of their content. This paper describes the construction process in detail, and the appendix shows each site and its associated fuzzy set. Keywords: anomalous cognition, remote viewing, RV stimulus, RV targeting, target pool construction Se han aplicado previamente conjuntos difusos a estimulos fotograficos. En este trabajo, usamos la misma tecnologia para construir un juego de sitios naturales en el area de la bahia de San Francisco. Creamos un Conjunto Universal de Elementos con 13 reactivos con cinco categorias ortogonales: Construcciones, Estanques, Torres, Jardines y Puentes. Dos voluntaries identificaron y codificaron 22 sitios de forma independiente. Por lo tanto, los grupos difusos que representan a estos sitios son un consenso razonable de su contenido. Este articulo describe el proceso de construccion en detalle y el apendice muestra cada sitio y su conjunto difuso asociado. Les sous-ensembles flous ont prealablement ete appliques a des stimuli cibles photographiques. Dans cet article, nous utilisons la meme technologie pour construire un ensemble de sites naturels de la baie de San Francisco. Nous avons cree un Lot universel d'elements contenant 13 items qui s'articulent selon cinq categories orthogonales : immeubles, etangs, tours, jardins et ponts. 22 sites furent identifies et independamment codes par deux participants. Ainsi, les sous-ensembles fious qui represented ces sites sont le fruit d'un consensus raisonnable a propos de leur contenu. Cet article decrit en details le processus de construction, et l'annexe montre chaque site et son sous-ensemble flou associe. Fuzzy-Mengen wurden bereits auf photographisches Zielmaterial angewendet. In diesem Artikel verwenden wir die gleiche Technologie, um einen Satz naturlicher Ortlichkeiten in der Gegend um die San Francisco Bay zu konstruieren. Wir entwickelten einen Universellen Satz an Elementen, der 13 Items enthielt, die funf orthogonale Kategorien bildeten: Gebaude, Gewasser, Turme, Garten und Brucken. 22 Ortlichkeiten wurden ausgewahlt und unabhangig von zwei Freiwilligen eingestuft. Die Fuzzy-Mengen, die diese Ortlichkeiten reprasentieren, stellen inhaltlich einen annehmbaren Konsens dar. Dieser Artikel beschreibt detailliert den Konstruktionsprozess, und der Anhang zeigt jede Ortlichkeit mit der dazugehorigen Fuzzy-Menge., A traditional set (called a crisp set) is simply a collection of items that share a common property. For example the set of cities that possess 1,000,000 people or more [...]

A new multiple decision-maker model using bi-level programming is proposed for a resource-constrained project scheduling problem in a fuzzy random environment. In the model, activity duration is assumed to be a fuzzy random variable because of the complex uncertainties in project scheduling problems. The project owner, who is the upper-level decision maker, seeks to maximize profits whereas the lower-level contractor attempts to minimize cost. A global-local-neighbor particle swarm optimization with a fuzzy random simulation is then proposed to solve the advanced model. Finally, a sub-project of Nuozhadu Hydropower Station Construction Project in China is used to illustrate an application of the developed model. A comparison with other approaches is made and the generated results validate the viability and effectiveness of the proposed model and method. Key words: resource-constrained project scheduling, multiple decision maker, bi-level programming, fuzzy random variable, particle swarm optimization. Un nouveau modele de prise de decisions multiples, utilisant une programmation a double niveau, est propose pour un probleme d'ordonnancement de projet a contrainte de personnel dans un environnement aleatoire flou. Dans le modele, la duree de l'activite est presumee etre une variable aleatoire floue en raison des incertitudes complexes dans les problemes d'ordonnancement des projets. Le proprietaire du projet, qui est le plus haut decideur, cherche a maximiser les profits, alors que l'entrepreneur de niveau inferieur cherche a minimiser les couts. Une optimisation avec essaim de particules global-local-voisin utilisant une simulation aleatoire floue est ensuite proposee pour resoudre le modele avance. Finalement, un sous-projet du projet de construction d'un barrage pour la centrale hydroelectrique Nuozhadu, en Chine, illustre une application du modele developpe. Il est compare a d'autres approches et les resultats valident la viabilite et l'efficacite du modele et de la methode proposes. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles : ordonnancement d'un projet a contrainte de personnel, modele de prise de decisions multiples, programmation a double niveau, variable aleatoire floue, optimisation par modele en banc de sable., 1. Introduction The resource-constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP) is one of the most challenging problems in construction scheduling applications as the identification of optimal solutions are of great value to [...]

Modular construction brings improved safety and mitigates risks of hazard and injury. However, modular construction technology is also challenged with a degree of uncertainty resulting from such internal and external factors as engineering, occupational, cultural, socio-economic, and financial. Since modular construction is by nature distinct from conventional construction, existing risk management research for onsite construction cannot be directly applied to modular construction. This paper describes research on the risk management associated with modular construction, focusing on: (1) identifying risk factors and (2) assessing the impacts of the identified risk factors on project cost and duration. The primary risk factors associated with modular construction are identified, and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is utilized to rank these factors; simulation techniques are employed to assess the risks of projects. The risk identification and ranking are evaluated by a focus group of experts from the modular construction industry; t-distribution and chi-squared distribution are applied to analyze the results. The case of a project in Edmonton, Canada is presented to illustrate application of the proposed methodology. Key words: modular construction, risk management, AHP, fuzzy logic, simulation. La construction modulaire ameliore la securite et attenue les risques de dangers et de blessures. Toutefois, la technologie de construction modulaire presente egalement un certain niveau d'incertitude decoulant de facteurs internes et externes tels que les aspects d'ingenierie, d'usage, de culture, socioeconomiques et financiers. La construction modulaire etant par nature differente de la construction conventionnelle, la recherche existante sur la gestion des risques pour la construction sur place ne peut etre directement appliquee a la construction modulaire. Le present article decrit la recherche sur la gestion des risques associes a la construction modulaire, plus particulierement : (1) l'identification des facteurs de risques et (2) l'evaluation des impacts des facteurs de risque identifies sur le cout et la duree d'un projet. Les principaux facteurs de risque associes a la construction modulaire sont identifies. La methode de hierarchie multicritere floue (AHP) est utilisee pour classer ces facteurs et des techniques de simulation sont utilisees pour evaluer les risques des projets. L'identification et le classement des risques sont evalues par un groupe de consultation compose d'experts provenant de l'industrie de la construction modulaire. La loi de Student et la distribution chi carre sont utilisees pour analyser les resultats. Le cas d'un projet a Edmonton, en Alberta, Canada, est presente afin d'illustrer l'utilisation de la methode proposee. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles : construction modulaire, gestion des risques, methode de hierarchie multicritere (AHP), logique floue, simulation., 1. Introduction Modular construction is widely accepted as an efficient construction method, particularly in North America for residential building construction. Processes such as offsite module prefabrication, shipping of modules to [...]

Risk allocation, a responsibility-sharing scheme for each party in a risk management process, is an important decision-making process for project success. Although previous studies have discussed risk allocation extensively, no comprehensive quantitative modeling approach for risk allocation exists. Such a model, specific for contract negotiation, would conduct authorities through the risk allocation process to determine the best risk-bearing participant. The purpose of this paper is to provide a quantitative model for the risk allocation process. This model should support decision making in risk management in a way that addresses the concerns of inappropriate risk allocation. Because linguistic principles and qualitative expert knowledge are the essential ingredients of any risk allocation process, the modeling scheme utilizes fuzzy set theory, which incorporates the quantification and reasoning of natural language. Key words: risk allocation, risk management, contract risk management, multi criteria decision making, TOPSIS. L'imputation du risque, un mecanisme de partage des responsabilites entre les parties dans un processus de gestion des risques, est un processus important de prise de decisions pour le succes d'un projet. Meme si des etudes anterieures ont aborde l'imputation du risque en detail, aucune approche de modelisation quantitative complete n'existe pour l'imputation du risque. Un tel modele, specifique a la negociation des contrats, pourrait guider les autorites a travers le processus d' imputation du risque afin de determiner le participant supportant le mieux le risque. Le but du present article est de fournir un modele quantitatif du processus d'imputation du risque. Ce modele devrait supporter la prise de decision en gestion des risques en abordant les inquietudes concernant une allocation inappropriee des risques. Puisque les principes linguistiques et les connaissances qualitatives d'experts sont des ingredients essentiels de tout processus d'imputation du risque, la modelisation utilise la theorie des ensembles flous, qui incorpore la quantification et le raisonnement dans un langage naturel. Mots-cles : imputation du risque, gestion du risque, gestion des risques dans les contrats, prise de decision multicritere, TOPSIS. [Traduit par la Redaction], 1. Introduction A project risk is viewed as an 'uncertain event or condition that, if occurs, has a positive or negative effect on a project objective' (PMI 2008). Risk management [...]

A study was conducted to present an algorithm based on the combination of fuzzy logic and reinforcement learning. The algorithm is applied to the downtilt optimization problem in order to obtain the self-configuration, self-optimization and self-healing functionalities needed for future communication networks.

In Wales some 500 km (42%) of coastline has been designated as heritage coasts (HCs) and these areas are under increasing pressure from human activities. A 'Coastal Scenic Evaluation System', utilising a checklist of 26 physical and human use parameters, was applied at 500 m intervals along the 23 km Glamorgan Heritage Coast (GHC) to assess aesthetic changes within the HC boundaries. The technique utilised fuzzy logic analyses to quantify inherent uncertainties and subjectivities. Results at the 47 sites were differentiated into five classes by a decision evaluation parameter (D) -Class 1: (D [greater than or equal to] 0.85), none found; Class 2: (D [greater than or equal to] 0.65 and KEY WORDS: classification, fuzzy logic, parameters, boundaries, designations, planning