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Dengue is a major threat to public health in Brazil, the world's sixth biggest country by population, with over 1.5 million cases recorded in 2019 alone. Official data on dengue case counts is delivered incrementally and, for many reasons, often subject to delays of weeks. In contrast, data on dengue-related Google searches and Twitter messages is available in full with no delay. Here, we describe a model which uses online data to deliver improved weekly estimates of dengue incidence in Rio de Janeiro. We address a key shortcoming of previous online data disease surveillance models by explicitly accounting for the incremental delivery of case count data, to ensure that our approach can be used in practice. We also draw on data from Google Trends and Twitter in tandem, and demonstrate that this leads to slightly better estimates than a model using only one of these data streams alone. Our results provide evidence that online data can be used to improve both the accuracy and precision of rapid estimates of disease incidence, even where the underlying case count data is subject to long and varied delays., Comment: 25 pages, 7 figures (3 in supplementary information)

Crumpled thin sheets are complex fractal structures whose physical properties are influenced by a hierarchy of ridges. In this Letter, we report experiments that measure the stress-strain relation and show the coexistence of phases in the stretching of crumpled surfaces. The pull stress showed a change from a linear Hookean regime to a sublinear scaling with an exponent of $0.65 \pm 0.03$, which is identified with the Hurst exponent of the crumpled sheets. The stress fluctuations are studied, the statistical distribution of force peaks is analyzed and it is shown how the unpacking of crumpled sheets is guided by long distance interactions., Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures e Supplementary material with 3 pages e 4 figures

Mathematical and computational modeling approaches are increasingly used as quantitative tools in the analysis and forecasting of infectious disease epidemics. The growing need for realism in addressing complex public health questions is however calling for accurate models of the human contact patterns that govern the disease transmission processes. Here we present a data-driven approach to generate effective descriptions of population-level contact patterns by using highly detailed macro (census) and micro (survey) data on key socio-demographic features. We produce age-stratified contact matrices for 277 sub-national administrative regions of countries covering approximately 3.5 billion people and reflecting the high degree of cultural and societal diversity of the focus countries. We use the derived contact matrices to model the spread of airborne infectious diseases and show that sub-national heterogeneities in human mixing patterns have a marked impact on epidemic indicators such as the reproduction number and overall attack rate of epidemics of the same etiology. The contact patterns derived here are made publicly available as a modeling tool to study the impact of socio-economic differences and demographic heterogeneities across populations on the epidemiology of infectious diseases., Comment: 18 pages, 7 figures

One difficulty for real-time tracking of epidemics is related to reporting delay. The reporting delay may be due to laboratory confirmation, logistic problems, infrastructure difficulties and so on. The ability to correct the available information as quickly as possible is crucial, in terms of decision making such as issuing warnings to the public and local authorities. A Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach is proposed as a flexible way of correcting the reporting delays and to quantify the associated uncertainty. Implementation of the model is fast, due to the use of the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA). The approach is illustrated on dengue fever incidence data in Rio de Janeiro, and Severe Acute Respiratory Illness (SARI) data in Paran\'a state, Brazil.

The physics of tightly packed structures of a wire and other threadlike materials confined in cavities has been explored in recent years in connection with crumpled systems and a number of topics ranging from applications to DNA packing in viral capsids and surgical interventions with catheter to analogies with the electron gas at finite temperature and with theories of two-dimensional quantum gravity. When a long piece of wire is injected into two-dimensional cavities, it bends and originates in the jammed limit a series of closed structures that we call loops. In this work we study the extraction of a crumpled tightly packed wire from a circular cavity aiming to remove loops individually. The size of each removed loop, the maximum value of the force needed to unpack each loop, and the total length of the extracted wire were measured and related to an exponential growth and a mean field model consistent with the literature of crumpled wires. Scaling laws for this process are reported and the relationship between the processes of packing and unpacking of wire is commented upon., Comment: 18 pages, 11 equations, 7 figures

Traditional epidemic models consider that individual processes occur at constant rates. That is, an infected individual has a constant probability per unit time of recovering from infection after contagion. This assumption certainly fails for almost all infectious diseases, in which the infection time usually follows a probability distribution more or less spread around a mean value. We show a general treatment for an SIRS model in which both the infected and the immune phases admit such a description. The general behavior of the system shows transitions between endemic and oscillating situations that could be relevant in many real scenarios. The interaction with the other main source of oscillations, seasonality, is also discussed., Comment: Presented at the 9th AIMS Conference on Dynamical Systems, Differential Equations and Applications, Orlando, FL, USA, July 1-5, 2012

A simple spatial computer simulation model was recently introduced to study the evolution of the linguistic diversity. The model considers processes of selective geographic colonization, linguistic anomalous diffusion and mutation. In the approach, we ascribe to each language a fitness function which depends on the number of people that speak that language. Here we extend the aforementioned model to examine the role of saturation of the fitness on the language dynamics. We found that the dependence of the linguistic diversity on the area after colonization displays a power law regime with a nontrivial exponent in very good agreement with the measured exponent associated with the actual distribution of languages on the Earth., Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures

We study the relation between different social behaviors and the onset of epidemics in a model for the dynamics of sexual transmitted diseases. The model considers the society as a system of individual sexuated agents that can be organized in couples and interact with each other. The different social behaviors are incorporated assigning what we call a promiscuity value to each individual agent. The individual promiscuity is taken from a distributions and represents the daily probability of going out to look for a sexual partner, abandoning its eventual mate. In terms of this parameter we find a threshold for the epidemic which is much lower than the classical fully mixed model prediction, i.e. $R_0$ (basic reproductive number) $= 1$. Different forms for the distribution of the population promiscuity are considered showing that the threshold is weakly sensitive to them. We study the homosexual and the heterosexual case as well., Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures

The non-commutative Wess-Zumino model is used as a prototype for studying the low energy behaviour of a renormalizable non-commutative field theory. We start by deriving the potential mediating the fermion-fermion and boson-boson interactions in the non-relativistic regime. The quantum counterparts of these potentials are afflicted by irdering ambiguities but we show that there exists an ordering prescription which makes them hermitean. For space/space noncommutativity it turns out that Majorana fermions may be pictured as rods oriented perpendicularly to the direction of motion showing a lack of localituy, while bosons remain insensitive to the effects of noncommutativity. For time/space noncommutativity bosopns and fermions can be regarded as rods oriented along the direction of motion. For both cases of noncommutativity the scattering state described scattered waves, with at least one wave having negative time delay signalizing the underlying nonlocality. The superfield formulation of the model is used to compute the corresponding effective action in the one- and two-loop approximations. In the case of time/space noncommutativity, unitarity is violated in the relativistic regime. However, this does not preclude the existence of the unitary low energy limit., Comment: 14 pages, 2 figures, minor corrections