Search

• Long-term air temperature prediction is carried out by a novel two-phased approach. • eXplainable Artificial Intelligence models are applied to better analyse the results. • The approach is applied to the Southern part of the Iberian Peninsula from ERA5 data. • A comprehensive comparison against state-of-the-art techniques has been carried out. • XAI models outperform the compared techniques and benefit from being interpretable. In this paper we have tackled the problem of long-term air temperature prediction with eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) models. Specifically, we have evaluated the performance of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) architecture with sigmoidal neurons in the hidden layer, trained by means of an evolutionary algorithm (Evolutionary ANNs, EANNs). This XAI model architecture (XAI-EANN) has been applied to the long-term air temperature prediction at different sub-regions of the South of the Iberian Peninsula. In this case, the average August air temperature has been predicted from ERA5 Reanalysis data variables, obtaining good predictions skills and explainable models in terms of the input climatological variables considered. A cluster analysis has been first carried out in terms of the average air temperature in the zone, in such a way that a number of sub-regions with different air temperature behaviour have been defined. The proposed XAI-EANN model architecture has been applied to each of the defined sub-regions, in order to find significant differences among them, which can be explained with the XAI-EANN models obtained. Finally, a comprehensive comparison against some state-of-the-art techniques has also been carried out, concluding that there are statistically significant differences in terms of accuracy in favour of the proposed XAI-EANN model, which also benefits from being an XAI model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meteorological data are extensively used to perform environmental learning. Soft Computing (SC) and Machine Learning (ML) techniques represent a valuable support in many research areas, but require datasets containing information related to the topic under study. Such datasets are not always available in an appropriate format and its preparation and pre-processing implies a lot of time and effort by researchers. This paper presents a novel software tool with a user-friendly GUI to create datasets by means of management and data integration of meteorological observations from two data sources: the National Data Buoy Center and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis Project. Such datasets can be created using buoys and reanalysis data through customisable procedures, in terms of temporal resolution, predictive and objective variables, and can be used by SC and ML methodologies for prediction tasks (classification or regression). The objective is providing the research community with an automated and versatile system for the casuistry that entails well-formed and quality data integration, potentially leading to better prediction models. The software tool can be used as a supporting tool for coastal and ocean engineering applications, sustainable energy production, or environmental modelling; as well as for decision-making in the design and building of coastal protection structures, marine transport, ocean energy converters, and well-planned running of offshore and coastal engineering activities. Finally, to illustrate the applicability of the proposed tool, a case study to classify waves depending on their significant height and to predict energy flux in the Gulf of Alaska is presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prediction of convective clouds formation is a very important problem in different areas such as agriculture, natural hazards prevention or transport-related facilities. In this paper, we evaluate the capacity of different types of evolutionary artificial neural networks to predict the formation of convective clouds, tackling the problem as a classification task. We use data from Madrid-Barajas airport, including variables and indices derived from the Madrid-Barajas airport radiosonde station. As objective variable, we use the cloud information contained in the METAR and SPECI meteorological reports from the same airport and we consider a prediction time horizon of 12 h. The performance of different types of evolutionary artificial neural networks has been discussed and analysed, including three types of basis functions (sigmoidal unit, product unit and radial basis function) and two types of models, a mono-objective evolutionary algorithm with two objective functions and a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm optimised by the two objective functions simultaneously. We show that some of the developed neuro-evolutionary models obtain high quality solutions to this problem, due to its high unbalance characteristic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many types of research have been carried out with the aim of combating the COVID-19 pandemic since the first outbreak was detected in Wuhan, China. Anticipating the evolution of an outbreak helps to devise suitable economic, social and health care strategies to mitigate the effects of the virus. For this reason, predicting the SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate has become one of the most important and challenging problems of the past months. In this paper, we apply a two-stage mid and long-term forecasting framework to the epidemic situation in eight districts of Andalusia, Spain. First, an analytical procedure is performed iteratively to fit polynomial curves to the cumulative curve of contagions. Then, the extracted information is used for estimating the parameters and structure of an evolutionary artificial neural network with hybrid architectures (i.e., with different basis functions for the hidden nodes) while considering single and simultaneous time horizon estimations. The results obtained demonstrate that including polynomial information extracted during the training stage significantly improves the mid- and long-term estimations in seven of the eight considered districts. The increase in average accuracy (for the joint mid- and long-term horizon forecasts) is 37.61% and 35.53% when considering the single and simultaneous forecast approaches, respectively. • Estimated polynomial model coefficients serve as COVID19 contagion rate descriptors. • EANNs are used to build valid predictors for different pandemic stages. • Considering curve polynomial descriptors significantly improve the model performances. • Simultaneous Multi-Task EANN forecast perform better in Málaga with simpler models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]