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Deterministic wind power forecasts enclose an inherent uncertainty due to several sources of error. In order to counterbalance this deficiency, an analysis of the error characteristics and construction of probabilistic forecasts with associated confidence levels is necessary for the quantification of the corresponding uncertainty. This work proposes a probabilistic forecasting method using an atmospheric model, optimization techniques for addressing the temporal error dependencies and Kalman filtering for eliminating systematic errors and enhancing the symmetry-normality of the shaped error distributions. The method is applied in case studies, using real time data from four wind farms in Greece. The performance is compared against a reference method as well as other common methods showing an improvement in the predictive reliability.

The Generalized Aerosol Retrieval from Radiometer and Lidar Combined data algorithm (GARRLiC) and the LIdar-Radiometer Inversion Code (LIRIC) provide the opportunity to study the aerosol vertical distribution by combining ground-based lidar and sun-photometric measurements. Here, we utilize the capabilities of both algorithms for the characterization of Saharan dust and marine particles, along with their mixtures, in the south-eastern Mediterranean during the CHARacterization of Aerosol mixtures of Dust and Marine origin Experiment (CHARADMExp). Three case studies are presented, focusing on dust-dominated, marine-dominated and dust–marine mixing conditions. GARRLiC and LIRIC achieve a satisfactory characterization for the dust-dominated case in terms of particle microphysical properties and concentration profiles. The marine-dominated and the mixture cases are more challenging for both algorithms, although GARRLiC manages to provide more detailed microphysical retrievals compared to AERONET, while LIRIC effectively discriminates dust and marine particles in its concentration profile retrievals. The results are also compared with modelled dust and marine concentration profiles and surface in situ measurements.

A record-breaking dust storm originating from desert regions in northern Syria and Iraq occurred over the eastern Mediterranean in September 2015. In this contribution of a series of two articles (part 1, observations; part 2, atmospheric modeling), we provide a comprehensive overview of the aerosol conditions during this extreme dust outbreak in the Cyprus region. These observations are based on satellite observations (MODIS, moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and Ångström exponent, surface particle mass (PM10) concentrations measured at four sites in Cyprus, visibility observations at three airports in southern Cyprus and corresponding conversion products (particle extinction coefficient, dust mass concentrations), EARLINET (European Aerosol Research Lidar Network) lidar observations of dust vertical layering over Limassol, particle optical properties (backscatter, extinction, lidar ratio, linear depolarization ratio), and derived profiles of dust mass concentrations. Maximum 550 nm AOT exceeded values of 5.0, according to MODIS, and the mass loads were correspondingly > 10 g m−2 over Larnaca and Limassol during the passage of an extremely dense dust front on 8 September 2015. Hourly mean PM10 values were close to 8000 µg m−3 and the observed meteorological optical range (visibility) was reduced to 300–750 m at Larnaca and Limassol. The visibility observations suggest peak values of the near-surface total suspended particle (TSP) extinction coefficients of 6000 Mm−1 and thus TSP mass concentrations of 10 000 µg m−3. The Raman polarization lidar observations mainly indicated a double layer structure of the dust plumes (reaching to about 4 km height), pointing to at least two different dust source regions. Dust particle extinction coefficients (532 nm) already exceeded 1000 Mm−1 and the mass concentrations reached 2000 µg m−3 in the elevated dust layers on 7 September, more than 12 h before the peak dust front on 8 September reached the Limassol lidar station around local noon. Typical Middle Eastern dust lidar ratios around 40 sr were observed in the dense dust plumes. The particle depolarization ratio decreased from around 0.3 in the lofted dense dust layers to 0.2 at the end of the dust period (11 September), indicating an increasing impact of anthropogenic haze.

Online coupled mesoscale meteorology atmospheric chemistry models have undergone a rapid evolution in recent years. Although mainly developed by the air quality modelling community, these models are also of interest for numerical weather prediction and regional climate modelling as they can consider not only the effects of meteorology on air quality, but also the potentially important effects of atmospheric composition on weather. Two ways of online coupling can be distinguished: online integrated and online access coupling. Online integrated models simulate meteorology and chemistry over the same grid in one model using one main time step for integration. Online access models use independent meteorology and chemistry modules that might even have different grids, but exchange meteorology and chemistry data on a regular and frequent basis. This article offers a comprehensive review of the current research status of online coupled meteorology and atmospheric chemistry modelling within Europe. Eighteen regional online coupled models developed or being used in Europe are described and compared. Topics discussed include a survey of processes relevant to the interactions between atmospheric physics, dynamics and composition; a brief overview of existing online mesoscale models and European model developments; an analysis on how feedback processes are treated in these models; numerical issues associated with coupled models; and several case studies and model performance evaluation methods. Finally, this article highlights selected scientific issues and emerging challenges that require proper consideration to improve the reliability and usability of these models for the three scientific communities: air quality, numerical meteorology modelling (including weather prediction) and climate modelling. This review will be of particular interest to model developers and users in all three fields as it presents a synthesis of scientific progress and provides recommendations for future research directions and priorities in the development, application and evaluation of online coupled models.

This study examines dynamical and microphysical features of convective clouds that affect mercury (Hg) wet scavenging and concentrations in rainfall. Using idealized numerical model simulations in the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), we diagnose vertical transport and scavenging of soluble Hg species – gaseous oxidized mercury (GOM) and particle-bound mercury (HgP), collectively Hg(II) – in thunderstorms under typical environmental conditions found in the Northeast and Southeast United States (US). Mercury scavenging efficiencies from various initial altitudes are diagnosed for a case study of a typical strong convective storm in the Southeast US. Assuming that soluble mercury concentrations are initially vertically uniform, the model results suggest that 60% of mercury deposited to the surface in rainwater originates from above the boundary layer (> 2 km). The free troposphere could supply a larger fraction of mercury wet deposition if GOM and HgP concentrations increase with altitude. We use radiosonde observations in the Northeast and Southeast to characterize three important environmental characteristics that influence thunderstorm morphology: convective available potential energy (CAPE), vertical shear (0–6 km) of horizontal wind (SHEAR) and precipitable water (PW). The Southeast US generally has lower SHEAR and higher CAPE and PW. We then use RAMS to test how PW and SHEAR impact mercury scavenging and deposition, while keeping the initial Hg(II) concentrations fixed in all experiments. We found that the mercury concentration in rainfall is sensitive to SHEAR with the nature of sensitivity differing depending upon the PW. Since CAPE and PW cannot be perturbed independently, we test their combined influence using an ensemble of thunderstorm simulations initialized with environmental conditions for the Northeast and Southeast US. These simulations, which begin with identical Hg(II) concentrations, predict higher mercury concentrations in rainfall from thunderstorms forming in the environmental conditions over the Southeast US compared to the Northeast US. A final simulation of a stratiform rain event produces lower mercury concentrations than in thunderstorms forming in environments typical of the Southeast US. The stratiform cloud scavenges mercury from the lowest ~ 4 km of the atmosphere, while thunderstorms scavenge up to ~ 10 km.

Mineral dust aerosols exert a significant effect on both solar and terrestrial radiation. By absorbing and scattering, the solar radiation aerosols reduce the amount of energy reaching the surface. In addition, aerosols enhance the greenhouse effect by absorbing and emitting outgoing longwave radiation. Desert dust forcing exhibits large regional and temporal variability due to its short lifetime and diverse optical properties, further complicating the quantification of the direct radiative effect (DRE). The complexity of the links and feedbacks of dust on radiative transfer indicate the need for an integrated approach in order to examine these impacts. In order to examine these feedbacks, the SKIRON limited area model has been upgraded to include the RRTMG (Rapid Radiative Transfer Model – GCM) radiative transfer model that takes into consideration the aerosol radiative effects. It was run for a 6 year period. Two sets of simulations were performed, one without the effects of dust and the other including the radiative feedback. The results were first evaluated using aerosol optical depth data to examine the capabilities of the system in describing the desert dust cycle. Then the aerosol feedback on radiative transfer was quantified and the links between dust and radiation were studied. The study has revealed a strong interaction between dust particles and solar and terrestrial radiation, with several implications on the energy budget of the atmosphere. A profound effect is the increased absorption (in the shortwave and longwave) in the lower troposphere and the induced modification of the atmospheric temperature profile. These feedbacks depend strongly on the spatial distribution of dust and have more profound effects where the number of particles is greater, such as near their source.

The formation and propagation of density currents are well studied processes in fluid dynamics with many applications in other science fields. In the atmosphere, density currents are usually meso-β/γ phenomena and are often associated with storm downdrafts. These storms are responsible for the formation of severe dust episodes (haboobs) over desert areas. In the present study, the formation of a convective cool pool and the associated dust mobilization are examined for a representative event over the western part of Sahara desert. The physical processes involved in the mobilization of dust are described with the use of the integrated atmospheric-air quality RAMS/ICLAMS model. Dust is effectively produced due to the development of near surface vortices and increased turbulent mixing along the frontal line. Increased dust emissions and recirculation of the elevated particles inside the head of the density current result in the formation of a moving "dust wall". Transport of the dust particles in higher layers – outside of the density current – occurs mainly in three ways: (1) Uplifting of preexisting dust over the frontal line with the aid of the strong updraft (2) Entrainment at the upper part of the density current head due to turbulent mixing (3) Vertical mixing after the dilution of the system. The role of the dust in the associated convective cloud system was found to be limited. Proper representation of convective processes and dust mobilization requires the use of high resolution (cloud resolving) model configuration and online parameterization of dust production. Haboob-type dust storms are effective dust sources and should be treated accordingly in dust modeling applications.

Numerical models that combine weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry are here referred to as chemical weather forecasting models. Eighteen operational chemical weather forecasting models on regional and continental scales in Europe are described and compared in this article. Topics discussed in this article include how weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry models are integrated into chemical weather forecasting systems, how physical processes are incorporated into the models through parameterization schemes, how the model architecture affects the predicted variables, and how air chemistry and aerosol processes are formulated. In addition, we discuss sensitivity analysis and evaluation of the models, user operational requirements, such as model availability and documentation, and output availability and dissemination. In this manner, this article allows for the evaluation of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the various modelling systems and modelling approaches. Finally, this article highlights the most prominent gaps of knowledge for chemical weather forecasting models and suggests potential priorities for future research directions, for the following selected focus areas: emission inventories, the integration of numerical weather prediction and atmospheric chemical transport models, boundary conditions and nesting of models, data assimilation of the various chemical species, improved understanding and parameterization of physical processes, better evaluation of models against data and the construction of model ensembles.

This report addresses the effects of pollution on the development of precipitation in clean ("pristine") and polluted ("hazy") environments in the Eastern Mediterranean by using the Integrated Community Limited Area Modeling System (ICLAMS) (an extended version of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, RAMS). The use of this model allows one to investigate the interactions of the aerosols with cloud development. The simulations show that the onset of precipitation in hazy clouds is delayed compared to pristine conditions. Adding small concentrations of GCCN to polluted clouds promotes early-stage rain. The addition of GCCN to pristine clouds has no effect on precipitation amounts. Topography was found to be more important for the distribution of precipitation than aerosol properties. Increasing by 15% the concentration of hygroscopic dust particles for a case study over the Eastern Mediterranean resulted in more vigorous convection and more intense updrafts. The clouds that were formed extended about three kilometers higher, delaying the initiation of precipitation by one hour. Prognostic treatment of the aerosol concentrations in the explicit cloud droplet nucleation scheme of the model, improved the model performance for the twenty-four hour accumulated precipitation. The spatial distribution and the amounts of precipitation were found to vary greatly between the different aerosol scenarios. These results indicate the large uncertainty that remains and the need for more accurate description of aerosol feedbacks in atmospheric models and climate change predictions.

Detailed information on the chemical and physical properties of aerosols is important for assessing their role in air quality and climate. This work explores the origin and fate of continental aerosols transported over the Central Atlantic Ocean, in terms of chemical composition, number and size distribution, using chemistry-transport models, satellite data and in situ measurements. We focus on August 2005, a period with intense hurricane and tropical storm activity over the Atlantic Ocean. A mixture of anthropogenic (sulphates, nitrates), natural (desert dust, sea salt) and chemically aged (sulphate and nitrate on dust) aerosols is found entering the hurricane genesis region, most likely interacting with clouds in the area. Results from our modelling study suggest rather small amounts of accumulation mode desert dust, sea salt and chemically aged dust aerosols in this Atlantic Ocean region. Aerosols of smaller size (Aitken mode) are more abundant in the area and in some occasions sulphates of anthropogenic origin and desert dust are of the same magnitude in terms of number concentrations. Typical aerosol number concentrations are derived for the vertical layers near shallow cloud formation regimes, indicating that the aerosol number concentration can reach several thousand particles per cubic centimetre. The vertical distribution of the aerosols shows that the desert dust particles are often transported near the top of the marine cloud layer as they enter into the region where deep convection is initiated. The anthropogenic sulphate aerosol can be transported within a thick layer and enter the cloud deck through multiple ways (from the top, the base of the cloud, and by entrainment). The sodium (sea salt related) aerosol is mostly found below the cloud base. The results of this work may provide insights relevant for studies that consider aerosol influences on cloud processes and storm development in the Central Atlantic region.

The desert of Sahara is one of the major sources of mineral dust on Earth, producing around 2×108 tons/yr. Under certain weather conditions, dust particles from Saharan desert get transported over the Mediterranean Sea and most of Europe. The limiting values set by the directive EC/30/1999 of European Union can easily be exceeded by the transport of desert dust particles in the south European Region and especially in urban areas, where there is also significant contribution from anthropogenic sources. In this study, the effects of dust transport on air quality in several Greek urban areas are quantified. PM10 concentration values from stationary monitoring stations are compared to dust concentrations for the 4-year period 2003–2006. The dust concentration values in the Greek areas were estimated by the SKIRON modelling system coupled with embedded algorithms describing the dust cycle. The mean annual dust contribution to daily-averaged PM10 concentration values was found to be around or even greater than 10% in the urban areas throughout the years examined. Natural dust transport may contribute by more than 20% to the annual number of exceedances – PM10 values greater than EU limits – depending on the specific monitoring location. In a second stage of the study, the inhaled lung dose received by the residents in various Greek locations is calculated. The particle deposition efficiency of mineral dust at the different parts of the human respiratory tract is determined by applying a lung dosimetry numerical model, which incorporates inhalation dynamics and aerosol physical processes. The inhalation dose from mineral dust particles was greater in the upper respiratory system (extrathoracic region) and less significant in the lungs, especially in the sensitive alveolar region. However, in cases of dust episodes, the amounts of mineral dust deposited along the human lung are comparable to those received during exposure in heavily polluted urban or smoking areas.

An operational assimilation system incorporating significant wave height observations in high resolution numerical wave models is studied and evaluated. In particular, altimeter satellite data provided by the European Space Agency (ESA-ENVISAT) are assimilated in the wave model WAM which operates in two different wave climate areas: the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. The first is a wind-sea dominated area while in the second, swell is the principal part of the sea state, a fact that seriously affects the performance of the assimilation scheme. A detailed study of the different impact is presented and the resulting forecasts are evaluated against available buoy and satellite observations. The corresponding results show a considerable improvement in wave forecasting for the Indian Ocean while in the Mediterranean Sea the assimilation impact is restricted to isolated areas.

This paper investigates the use of non-linear functions in classical Kalman filter algorithms on the improvement of regional weather forecasts. The main aim is the implementation of non linear polynomial mappings in a usual linear Kalman filter in order to simulate better non linear problems in numerical weather prediction. In addition, the optimal order of the polynomials applied for such a filter is identified. This work is based on observations and corresponding numerical weather predictions of two meteorological parameters characterized by essential differences in their evolution in time, namely, air temperature and wind speed. It is shown that in both cases, a polynomial of low order is adequate for eliminating any systematic error, while higher order functions lead to instabilities in the filtered results having, at the same time, trivial contribution to the sensitivity of the filter. It is further demonstrated that the filter is independent of the time period and the geographic location of application.

In this study an attempt is made to analyse meteorological and air quality observations obtained in the Eordea Basin, Northern Greece, during the period 1991-1993. During this period 118 episode days being characterised by increased SO2 and/or PM10 concentrations were identified. The increased SO2 and PM10 concentrations are mainly due to the power plants operating in the area. These air quality characteristics were interpreted in relation with the local, synoptic, and mesoscale meteorological conditions. The results indicated that the episodedays in this area can be grouped in relation to their synoptic circulation characteristics in five categories. It was found that relatively high concentrations of S2 and high concentrations of PM10 usually are accumulated under moderate to strong northerly winds.

A statistical technique for image processing, the maximum cross correlation (MCC) method, was utilized on sequences of NOAA-AVHRR thermal data in order to explore the surface advective current dynamics at the discharge region of the Hellespont in the North Aegean Sea. A 2D numerical flow model was also used in order to simulate the barotropic flow pattern of the surface water layer. The model was forced with diurnal wind fields obtained for the same period as the satellite infrared images. The currents (magnitude and direction) derived from the two methods compare satisfactorily despite the fact that some model simplifications were made.

The physical and chemical properties of airborne particles have significant implications on the microphysical cloud processes. Maritime clouds have different properties than polluted ones and the final amounts and types of precipitation are different. Mixed phase aerosols that contain soluble matter are efficient cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and enhance the liquid condensate spectrum in warm and mixed phase clouds. Insoluble particles such as mineral dust and black carbon are also important because of their ability to act as efficient ice nuclei (IN) through heterogeneous ice nucleation mechanisms. The relative contribution of aerosol concentrations, size distributions and chemical compositions on cloud structure and precipitation is discussed in the framework of RAMS/ICLAMS model. Analysis of model results and comparison with measurements reveals the complexity of the above links. Taking into account anthropogenic emissions and all available aerosol-cloud interactions the model precipitation bias was reduced by 50% for a storm simulation over eastern Mediterranean., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

MOON (Mediterranean Operational Oceanography Network http://www.moon-oceanforecasting.eu) provides near-real-time information on oil-spill detection (ocean color and SAR) and predictions [ocean forecasts (MFS and CYCOFOS) and oil-spill predictions (MEDSLIK)]. We employ this system to study the Lebanese oil-pollution crisis in summer 2006 and thus to assist regional and local decision makers in Europe, regionally and locally. The MEDSLIK oil-spill predictions obtained using CYCOFOS high-resolution ocean fields are compared with those obtained using lower-resolution MFS hydrodynamics, and both are validated against satellite observations. The predicted beached oil distributions along the Lebanese and Syrian coasts are compared with in situ observations. The oil-spill predictions are able to simulate the northward movement of the oil spill, with the CYCOFOS predictions being in better agreement with satellite observations. Among the free MEDSLIK parameters tested in the sensitivity experiments, the drift factor appears to be the most relevant to improve the quality of the results., (Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

In this study, an attempt was made to analyze time series of air quality measurements (O3, SO2, SO4(2-), NOx) conducted at a remote place in the eastern Mediterranean (Finokalia at Crete Island in 1999) to obtain concrete information on potential contributions from emission sources. For the definition of a source-receptor relationship, advanced meteorological and dispersion models appropriate to identify "areas of influence" have been used. The model tools used are the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System and the Lagrangian-type particle dispersion model (forward and backward in time), with capabilities to derive influence functions and definition of "areas of influence." When high levels of pollutants have been measured at the remote location of Finokalia, particles are released from this location (receptor) and traced backward in time. The influence function derived from particle distributions characterizes dispersion conditions in the atmosphere and also provides information on potential contributions from emission sources within the modeling domain to this high concentration. As was shown in the simulation results, the experimental site of Finokalia in Crete is influenced during the selected case studies, primarily by pollutants emitted from the urban conglomerate of Athens. Secondarily, it is influenced by polluted air masses arriving from Italy and/or the Black Sea Region. For some specific cases, air pollutants monitored at Finokalia were possibly related to war activities in the West Balkan Region (Kosovo).