Search

Objective of the study was an assessment of the current epizootiological situation on tularemia in the Stavropol Region. Materials and methods. Processed were the data of laboratory investigations of the field material over the period of 2010-2017. All field samples were studied in the laboratories of the Stavropol Anti-Plague Institute using PCR and bioassay. Results and discussion. This paper presents the analysis of the epizootiological situation for the period of 2010-2017 in the Stavropol Region. The species composition and the number of the main carriers of tularemia have been established. Epizootic activity of the focus is defined by mice of the genus Sylvaemus. Data on the isolation of strains from ticks, small mammals and environmental objects are presented and processed. According to our studies, over the past seven years, infection with tularemia agent has been detected in seven species of mammals: S. uralensis, Microtus arvalis, M. socialis, Mus musculus, Crocidura suaveolens, Erinaceus roumanicus, Lepus europaeus. For the period of epizootic monitoring between 2010 and 2017 37 strains of the causative agent were isolated from small mammals - 12 (32.4 %), ectoparasites - 9 (24.3 %), and environmental objects - 16 (43.2 %). All isolated strains have been identified as Francisella tularensis holarctica biovar II, eryR.

Central-Caucasian natural plague focus was permanently epizootically active since its discovering in 1971 till 2007. Inter-epizootic period has been in progress since 2008. It was not possible to isolate agent strains from field material. Therefore a forecast for focus activation is a relevant task, especially against the background of registered plague cases in humans in 2014–2016. Objective of the study was to create a forecasting model for quantitative prediction of possible activation or maintenance of inter-epizootic period. Materials and methods. We used archival data of Kabardino-Balkar Plague Control Station: journals of rodents’ autopsy, annual reports on epizootiological surveillance, meteorological data from meteostation “Kislovodsk” over the period of 1989–2017, and our epidemiological data for the period 2010 to 2017. We applied Spearman nonparametric correlation analysis, regression analysis, including principal component method, quarterly analysis, and inhomogeneous sequential pattern recognition procedures for statistical processing. Results and discussion. We have designed statistical model which provides for forecasting of plague focus epizootic activity proactively, a year in advance and 99 % probability or higher. The model was tested on retrospective data over the course of 7 years. All predictions were correct. The operational forecasts from 2015 to 2017 proved right too. However there is a possibility of fast changes in the ecology system conditions of the Central-Caucasian natural plague focus because of the global warming. Thereby the forecasting model will be annually checked for informative value of the predictors and, if necessary, adjusted accordingly.

Objective of the study was to evaluate the state of parasitic systems and activity of the natural plague foci of the Russian Federation in 2016 and to develop epizootiological forecasting for 2017. In 2016 epizooties of plague were registered in the territory of the KoshAgach District of the Altai Republic and Mongun-Taiginsky, Ovyursky, and Tes-Khemsky Kozhuuns of the Republic of Tyva. The total area coverage was 1692.6 km2. Isolated were 87 strains of plague microbe, including the isolates from rodents and lagomorphs – 31, from fleas – 47, lice – 7, and Ixodidae ticks – 2. Verified has been epizootiological forecast for the year 2017, which shows that epidemiological situation will remain tense. In order to reduce the epidemic risks, comprehensive plans of preventive activities have been developed. In the territory of the other natural foci epizootic manifestations of plague are not expected to occur. Only in PreCaspian sandy focus, situated in the territory of Lagan and Chernozemelsky Regions of the Kalmyk Republic, probability of the singly infected animal findings during the autumn season, 2017 is retained.

Landscape-geographical and climatic peculiarities of the Stavropol Region, high abundance of mosquito and ticks, the diversity of wild mammal and bird species, developed agriculture and infrastructure create favorable conditions for circulation of arboviruses and hantaviruses, emergence of cases of viral infections, which sometimes cause serious epidemic complications. CHF natural focus actively functions in the territory of the Stavropol Region at present. Detected is presence of West Nile fever, tick-born encephalitis, Batai fever agents and specific antibodies, as well as hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome agent.