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One of the core risk management tasks is to identify hidden high-risky states that may lead to system breakdown, which can provide valuable early warning knowledge. However, due to high dimensionality and nonlinear interaction embedded in large-scale complex systems like urban traffic, it remains challenging to identify hidden high-risky states from huge system state space where over 99% of possible system states are not yet visited in empirical data. Based on maximum entropy model, we infer the underlying interaction network from complicated dynamical processes of urban traffic, and construct system energy landscape. In this way, we can locate hidden high-risky states that have never been observed from real data. These states can serve as risk signals with high probability of entering hazardous minima in energy landscape, which lead to huge recovery cost. Our finding might provide insights for complex system risk management.

When an unexpected metro disruption occurs, metro managers need to reschedule timetables to avoid trains going into the disruption area, and transport passengers stranded at disruption stations as quickly as possible. This paper proposes a two-stage optimization model to jointly make decisions for two tasks. In the first stage, the timetable rescheduling problem with cancellation and short-turning strategies is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming (MILP). In particular, the instantaneous parameters and variables are used to describe the accumulation of time-varying passenger flow. In the second one, a system-optimal dynamic traffic assignment (SODTA) model is employed to dynamically schedule response vehicles, which is able to capture the dynamic traffic and congestion. Numerical cases of Beijing Metro Line 9 verify the efficiency and effectiveness of our proposed model, and results show that: (1) when occurring a disruption event during peak hours, the impact on the normal timetable is greater, and passengers in the direction with fewer train services are more affected; (2) if passengers stranded at the terminal stations of disruption area are not transported in time, they will rapidly increase at a speed of more than 300 passengers per minute; (3) compared with the fixed shortest path, using the response vehicles reduces the total travel time about 7%. However, it results in increased travel time for some passengers., Comment: 32 pages, 21 figures

Revealing the structural properties and understanding the evolutionary mechanisms of the urban heavy truck mobility network (UHTMN) provide insights in assessment of freight policies to manage and regulate the urban freight system, and are of vital importance for improving the livability and sustainability of cities. Although massive urban heavy truck mobility data become available in recent years, in-depth studies on the structure and evolution of UHTMN are still lacking. Here we use massive urban heavy truck GPS data in China to construct the UHTMN and reveal its a wide range of structure properties. We further develop an evolving network model that simultaneously considers weight, space and system element duplication. Our model reproduces the observed structure properties of UHTMN and helps us understand its underlying evolutionary mechanisms. Our model also provides new perspectives for modeling the evolution of many other real-world networks, such as protein interaction networks, citation networks and air transportation networks., Comment: 18 pages, 6 figures

Accurate passenger flow prediction of urban rail transit is essential for improving the performance of intelligent transportation systems, especially during the epidemic. How to dynamically model the complex spatiotemporal dependencies of passenger flow is the main issue in achieving accurate passenger flow prediction during the epidemic. To solve this issue, this paper proposes a brand-new transformer-based architecture called STformer under the encoder-decoder framework specifically for COVID-19. Concretely, we develop a modified self-attention mechanism named Causal-Convolution ProbSparse Self-Attention (CPSA) to model the multiple temporal dependencies of passenger flow with low computational costs. To capture the complex and dynamic spatial dependencies, we introduce a novel Adaptive Multi-Graph Convolution Network (AMGCN) by leveraging multiple graphs in a self-adaptive manner. Additionally, the Multi-source Data Fusion block fuses the passenger flow data, COVID-19 confirmed case data, and the relevant social media data to study the impact of COVID-19 to passenger flow. Experiments on real-world passenger flow datasets demonstrate the superiority of ST-former over the other eleven state-of-the-art methods. Several ablation studies are carried out to verify the effectiveness and reliability of our model structure. Results can provide critical insights for the operation of URT systems., Comment: There are some errors that might mislead readers for this version. There is no new version right now

This paper reports an experimental study on oscillation growth in mixed traffic flow of automated vehicles (AVs) and human driven vehicles (HVs). The leading vehicle moves with constant speed in the experiment. The following vehicles consist of six developable AVs and different number of HVs. Thus, the market penetration rate (MPR) of AVs decreases with the increase of platoon size. The AVs are homogeneously distributed in the platoon. The constant time gap car-following policy is adopted for the AVs and the gap is set to 1.5 s. The experiment shows that in the 7-vehicle-platoon, the oscillations grow only slightly. In the 10-vehicle-platoon, the AVs could still significantly suppress the growth of oscillations. With the further decrease of MPR of AVs in the 13- and 20-vehicle-platoon, the AVs become having no significant impact on oscillation growth. On the other hand, with the decrease of MPR of AVs, average density of the vehicles and flow rate of the platoon increase, which demonstrates a trade-off between traffic stability and throughput under the given setup of AVs. The simulation study is also carried out, which exhibits good agreement with the experiment. Finally, sensitivity analysis of the parameters in the AV upper-level control algorithm has been performed, which is expected to guide future experiment design.

The short term passenger flow prediction of the urban rail transit system is of great significance for traffic operation and management. The emerging deep learning-based models provide effective methods to improve prediction accuracy. However, most of the existing models mainly predict the passenger flow on general weekdays or weekends. There are only few studies focusing on predicting the passenger flow on holidays, which is a significantly challenging task for traffic management because of its suddenness and irregularity. To this end, we propose a deep learning-based model named Spatial Temporal Attention Fusion Network comprising a novel Multi-Graph Attention Network, a Conv-Attention Block, and Feature Fusion Block for short-term passenger flow prediction on holidays. The multi-graph attention network is applied to extract the complex spatial dependencies of passenger flow dynamically and the conv-attention block is applied to extract the temporal dependencies of passenger flow from global and local perspectives. Moreover, in addition to the historical passenger flow data, the social media data, which has been proven that they can effectively reflect the evolution trend of passenger flow under events, are also fused into the feature fusion block of STAFN. The STAFN is tested on two large-scale urban rail transit AFC datasets from China on the New Year holiday, and the prediction performance of the model are compared with that of several conventional prediction models. Results demonstrate its better robustness and advantages among benchmark methods, which can provide overwhelming support for practical applications of short term passenger flow prediction on holidays., Comment: There are some errors that might mislead readers for this version. There is no new version right now

With the prevailing of mobility as a service (MaaS), it becomes increasingly important to manage multi-traffic modes simultaneously and cooperatively. As an important component of MaaS, short-term passenger flow prediction for multi-traffic modes has thus been brought into focus. It is a challenging problem because the spatiotemporal features of multi-traffic modes are critically complex. Moreover, the passenger flows of multi-traffic modes differentiate and fluctuate significantly. To solve these problems, this paper proposes a multitask learning-based model, called Res-Transformer, for short-term inflow prediction of multi-traffic modes (subway, taxi, and bus). Each traffic mode is treated as a single task in the model. The Res-Transformer consists of two parts: (1) several modified Transformer layers comprising the conv-Transformer layer and the multi-head attention mechanism, which helps to extract the spatial and temporal features of multi-traffic modes, (2) the structure of residual network is utilized to obtain the correlations of different traffic modes and prevent gradient vanishing, gradient explosion, and overfitting. The Res-Transformer model is evaluated on two large-scale real-world datasets from Beijing, China. One is the region of a traffic hub and the other is the region of a residential area. Experiments are conducted to compare the performance of the proposed model with several baseline models. Results prove the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method. This paper can give critical insights into the short-term inflow prediction for multi-traffic modes., Comment: 26 pages, 15 figures, 4 tables

Express systems play important roles in modern major cities. Couriers serving for the express system pick up packages in certain areas of interest (AOI) during a specific time. However, future pick-up requests vary significantly with time. While the assignment results are generally static without changing with time. Using the historical pick-up request number to conduct AOI assignment (or pick-up request assignment) for couriers is thus unreasonable. Moreover, even we can first predict future pick-up requests and then use the prediction results to conduct the assignments, this kind of two-stage method is also impractical and trivial, and exists some drawbacks, such as the best prediction results might not ensure the best clustering results. To solve these problems, we put forward an intelligent end-to-end predict-then-optimize clustering method to simultaneously predict the future pick-up requests of AOIs and assign AOIs to couriers by clustering. At first, we propose a deep learning-based prediction model to predict order numbers on AOIs. Then a differential constrained K-means clustering method is introduced to cluster AOIs based on the prediction results. We finally propose a one-stage end-to-end predict-then-optimize clustering method to assign AOIs to couriers reasonably, dynamically, and intelligently. Results show that this kind of one-stage predict-then-optimize method is beneficial to improve the performance of optimization results, namely the clustering results. This study can provide critical experiences for predict-and-optimize related tasks and intelligent assignment problems in express systems., Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, and 3 tables

Short-term passenger flow prediction is an important but challenging task for better managing urban rail transit (URT) systems. Some emerging deep learning models provide good insights to improve short-term prediction accuracy. However, there exist many complex spatiotemporal dependencies in URT systems. Most previous methods only consider the absolute error between ground truth and predictions as the optimization objective, which fails to account for spatial and temporal constraints on the predictions. Furthermore, a large number of existing prediction models introduce complex neural network layers to improve accuracy while ignoring their training efficiency and memory occupancy, decreasing the chances to be applied to the real world. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel deep learning-based spatiotemporal graph generative adversarial network (STG-GAN) model with higher prediction accuracy, higher efficiency, and lower memory occupancy to predict short-term passenger flows of the URT network. Our model consists of two major parts, which are optimized in an adversarial learning manner: (1) a generator network including gated temporal conventional networks (TCN) and weight sharing graph convolution networks (GCN) to capture structural spatiotemporal dependencies and generate predictions with a relatively small computational burden; (2) a discriminator network including a spatial discriminator and a temporal discriminator to enhance the spatial and temporal constraints of the predictions. The STG-GAN is evaluated on two large-scale real-world datasets from Beijing Subway. A comparison with those of several state-of-the-art models illustrates its superiority and robustness. This study can provide critical experience in conducting short-term passenger flow predictions, especially from the perspective of real-world applications., Comment: There are some errors that might mislead readers for this version. There is no new version right now

The importance of understanding human mobility patterns has led many studies to examine their spatial-temporal scaling laws. These studies mainly reveal that human travel can be highly non-homogeneous with power-law scaling distributions of distances and times. However, investigating and quantifying the extent of variability in time and space when traveling the same air distance has not been addressed so far. Using taxi data from five large cities, we focus on several novel measures of distance and time to explore the spatio-temporal variations of taxi travel routes relative to their typical routes during peak and nonpeak periods. To compare all trips using a single measure, we calculate the distributions of the ratios between actual travel distances and the average travel distance as well as between actual travel times and the average travel time for all origin destinations (OD) during peak and nonpeak periods. In this way, we measure the scaling of the distribution of all single trip paths with respect to their mean trip path. Our results surprisingly demonstrate very broad distributions for both the distance ratio and time ratio, characterized by a long-tail power-law distribution. Moreover, all analyzed cities have larger exponents in peak hours than in nonpeak hours. We suggest that the interesting results of shorter trip lengths and times, characterized by larger exponents during rush hours, are due to the higher availability of travelers in rush hours compared to non-rush hours...

Urban rail transit (URT) system plays a dominating role in many megacities like Beijing and Hong Kong. Due to its important role and complex nature, it is always in great need for public agencies to better understand the performance of the URT system. This paper focuses on an essential and hard problem to estimate the network-wide link travel time and station waiting time using the automatic fare collection (AFC) data in the URT system, which is beneficial to better understand the system-wide real-time operation state. The emerging data-driven techniques, such as computational graph (CG) models in the machine learning field, provide a new solution for solving this problem. In this study, we first formulate a data-driven estimation optimization framework to estimate the link travel time and station waiting time. Then, we cast the estimation optimization model into a CG framework to solve the optimization problem and obtain the estimation results. The methodology is verified on a synthetic URT network and applied to a real-world URT network using the synthetic and real-world AFC data, respectively. Results show the robustness and effectiveness of the CG-based framework. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that the CG is applied to the URT. This study can provide critical insights to better understand the operational state in URT.

The intercity freight trips of heavy trucks are important data for transportation system planning and urban agglomeration management. In recent decades, the extraction of freight trips from GPS data has gradually become the main alternative to traditional surveys. Identifying the trip ends (origin and destination, OD) is the first task in trip extraction. In previous trip end identification methods, some key parameters, such as speed and time thresholds, have mostly been defined on the basis of empirical knowledge, which inevitably lacks universality. Here, we propose a data-driven trip end identification method. First, we define a speed threshold by analyzing the speed distribution of heavy trucks and identify all truck stops from raw GPS data. Second, we define minimum and maximum time thresholds by analyzing the distribution of the dwell times of heavy trucks at stop location and classify truck stops into three types based on these time thresholds. Third, we use highway network GIS data and freight-related points-of-interest (POIs) data to identify valid trip ends from among the three types of truck stops. In this step, we detect POI boundaries to determine whether a heavy truck is stopping at a freight-related location. We further analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of intercity freight trips of heavy trucks and discuss their potential applications in practice.

Intracity heavy truck freight trips are basic data in city freight system planning and management. In the big data era, massive heavy truck GPS trajectories can be acquired cost effectively in real-time. Identifying freight trip ends (origins and destinations) from heavy truck GPS trajectories is an outstanding problem. Although previous studies proposed a variety of trip end identification methods from different perspectives, these studies subjectively defined key threshold parameters and ignored the complex intracity heavy truck travel characteristics. Here, we propose a data-driven trip end identification method in which the speed threshold for identifying truck stops and the multilevel time thresholds for distinguishing temporary stops and freight trip ends are objectively defined. Moreover, an appropriate time threshold level is dynamically selected by considering the intracity activity patterns of heavy trucks. Furthermore, we use urban road networks and point-of-interest (POI) data to eliminate misidentified trip ends to improve method accuracy. The validation results show that the accuracy of the method we propose is 87.45%. Our method incorporates the impact of the city freight context on truck trajectory characteristics, and its results can reflect the spatial distribution and chain patterns of intracity heavy truck freight trips, which have a wide range of practical applications.

Uncertainty is inevitable in transportation system due to the stochastic change of demand and supply. It is one of the most important factors affecting travelers' choice behavior. Based on the framework of Vickrey's bottleneck model, we designed and conducted laboratory experiment to investigate the effects of stochastic bottleneck capacity on commuter departure time choice behavior. Two different scenarios with different information feedback are investigated. The experimental results show that the relationship between the mean cost (E(C)) and the standard deviation of cost (\sigma) can all be fitted approximately linearly with a positive slope \sigma=E(C)/\lambda^*-m (\lambda^*>0). This suggests that under the uncertain environment, travelers are likely to minimize their travel cost budget, defined as E(C)-\lambda^* \sigma, and \lambda^*>0 indicates that the travelers behave risk preferring. The experiments also found that providing the cost information of all departure times to the commuters lowered the commuters' risk preference coefficient (i.e., \lambda^* decreases). We propose a reinforcement learning model, which is shown to reproduce the main experimental findings well.

Side preference is a critical behavior in conflict handling, and here the behavior is investigated with pedestrian trajectories in circle antipode experiments that own both conflicting and symmetrical participant situations. In the series of experiments, more participants(around 70\%) prefer to walk on the right side, and the statistical analyses reveal that factors such as handedness, gender, and height have no significant impacts. Further investigations show that most pedestrians actually make the side choices at the very beginning, and empirical results suggest that selecting the dominate side preference (right side in our experiments) can benefit the individual movement efficiency. To reflect the realistic side preference characteristics in simulations, a Voronoi diagram based model is introduced as well as a side preference parameter with normal distribution is formulated and calibrated. Further simulations prove that the modified model is able to reproduce realistic side preference behaviors in circle antipode experiments and other common situations., Comment: 20 pages, 11 figures