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Tropical fruit flies are considered among the most economically important invasive species detected in temperate areas of the United States and the European Union. Detections often trigger quarantine and eradication programs that are conducted without a holistic understanding of the threat posed. Weather-driven physiologically-based demographic models are used to estimate the geographic range, relative abundance, and threat posed by four tropical tephritid fruit flies (Mediterranean fruit fly, melon fly, oriental fruit fly, and Mexican fruit fly) in North and Central America, and the European-Mediterranean region under extant and climate change weather (RCP8.5 and A1B scenarios). Most temperate areas under tropical fruit fly propagule pressure have not been suitable for establishment, but suitability is predicted to increase in some areas with climate change. To meet this ongoing challenge, investments are needed to collect sound biological data to develop mechanistic models to predict the geographic range and relative abundance of these and other invasive species, and to put eradication policies on a scientific basis.

Coffee, after petroleum, is the most valuable commodity globally in terms of total value (harvest to coffee cup). Here, our bioeconomic analysis considers the multitude of factors that influence coffee production. The system model used in the analysis incorporates realistic field models based on considerable new field data and models for coffee plant growth and development, the coffee/coffee berry borer (CBB) dynamics in response to coffee berry production and the role of the CBB parasitoids and their interactions in control of CBB. Cultural control of CBB by harvesting, cleanup of abscised fruits, and chemical sprays previously considered are reexamined here to include biopesticides for control of CBB such as entomopathogenic fungi (Beauveria bassiana, Metarhizium anisopliae) and entomopathogenic nematodes (Steinernema sp., Heterorhabditis). The bioeconomic analysis estimates the potential of each control tactic singly and in combination for control of CBB. The analysis explains why frequent intensive harvesting of coffee is by far the most effective and economically viable control practice for reducing CBB infestations in Colombia and Brazil.

Parasitoids native to tropical Africa have been released in the Americas for the biological control of the coffee berry borer (CBB), but their establishment has been checkered. A tritrophic distributed maturation time model for the coffee plant – CBB – three parasitoids (Phymastichus coffea, Cephalonomia stephanoderis, Prorops nasuta) system was proposed by Gutierrez et al. (1998). Based on this pioneering work, and improved models for coffee and CBB (Rodríguez et al., 2011, 2013), we present an updated version of the parasitoid models. The new elements in this analysis include: 1. New data on the biology and behavior of the parasitoids are added.2. A fourth parasitoid (Cephalonomia hyalinipennis) is added to the system.3. Interspecific competitive interactions among parasitoids (e.g., dyadic contests, intra-guild predation and hyperparasitism) and their effects on the control of CBB are explored.Because field data on the effectiveness of the parasitoids on CBB control is sparse, we assessed the efficacy of the parasitoids for control of CBB heuristically. The results are compared to prior analyses, and are related to field observations. Specifically, we found: 1. Control of CBB by betilid parasitoids (Cephalonomia stephanoderis, Cephalonomia hyalinipennis and Prorops nasuta) is ineffective because of their low reproductive capacity relative to CBB, their host-feeding behavior, and phenological mismatches with CBB life stages.2. Of the parasitoids, the eulophid P. coffea has the greatest potential to suppress CBB infestation levels, though the fungal pathogen B. bassiana and insecticides are reported to have detrimental effects on its establishment and dynamics.

The polyphagous Asian vinegar fly Drosophila suzukii (spotted wing Drosophila) is a native of Eastern and Southeastern Asia. It emerged as an important invasive insect pest of berries and stone fruits in the Americas and Europe beginning in 2008. Species distribution models are commonly used for analyzing the extant and potential range expansion of invasive species. Previous modeling efforts for D. suzukii include a degree-day model, a MaxEnt ecological niche model, a demographic model incorporating the effects of temperature, and a preliminary mechanistic physiologically-based demographic model (PBDM). In the present analysis, we refine the PBDM for D. suzukii based on biological data reported in the literature. The PBDM is used to assess the effects of temperature and relative humidity from a recently published global climate dataset (AgMERRA) on the prospective geographic distribution and relative abundance of the pest in the USA and Mexico, and in Europe and the Mediterranean Basin. Our focus is on areas of recent invasion and of predicted higher invasiveness in these areas. Although the species is native to Asia and is of putative temperate origins, it has established in subtropical to north temperate zones worldwide where it infests a wide range of wild and domesticated berries and stone fruits. The model captures the observed phenology of D. suzukii at specific locations, as well as the potential geographic distribution and relative favorability across larger regions. The main limiting factor is cold winter temperature in northern areas, though high temperatures and low relative humidity may be limiting in arid areas. The effect of greater cold tolerance in winter morph adults is explored.

The highly polyphagous light brown apple moth (LBAM) (Epiphyas postvittana (Walk.): Tortricidae) is indigenous to Australia and was first found in California in 2006. It is currently found in 15 coastal counties in California, but nowhere has it reached outbreak status. The USDA projects the geographic range of LBAM will include much of Arizona and California and the southern half of the US, which together with economic estimates of potential crop losses have been used as the rationale for an eradication program in California. We report a temperature-driven demographic model to predict the likely distribution and relative abundance of LBAM using the detailed biology reported by Danthanarayana and colleagues, and climate data from 151 locations in California and Arizona for the period 1995–2006. The predictions of our model suggest that the near coastal regions of California are most favorable for LBAM, the northern Central Valley of California being less favorable, and the desert regions of Arizona and California being unfavorable. The model also predicts that LBAM populations can develop at two of the hottest locations in SE Australia where it is has long been known to occur. This reassessment of the potential distribution of LBAM in California and Arizona suggests that its likely ecological and economic impacts would be less than previously assessed by USDA and that its current pest status warrants re-evaluation.

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative pest risk assessment to assess whether the import of cut roses provides a pathway for the introduction of Thaumatotibia leucotreta (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) into the EU. The assessment was limited to the entry and establishment steps. A pathway model was used to assess how many T. leucotreta individuals would survive and emerge as adults from commercial or household wastes in an EU NUTS2 region climatically suitable in a specific season. This pathway model for entry consisted of three components: a cut roses distribution model, a T. leucotreta developmental model and a waste model. Four scenarios of timing from initial disposal of the cut roses until waste treatment (3, 7, 14 and 28 days) were considered. The estimated median number of adults escaping per year from imported cut roses in all the climatically suitable NUTS2 regions of the EU varied from 49,867 (90% uncertainty between 5,298 and 234,393) up to 143,689 (90% uncertainty between 21,126 and 401,458) for the 3‐ and 28‐day scenarios. Assuming that, on average, a successful mating will happen for every 435 escaping moths, the estimated median number of T. leucotreta mated females per year from imported cut roses in all the climatically suitable NUTS2 regions of the EU would vary from 115 (90% uncertainty between 12 and 538) up to 330 (90% uncertainty between 49 and 923) for the 3‐ and 28‐day scenarios. Due to the extreme polyphagia of T. leucotreta, host availability will not be a limiting factor for establishment. Climatic suitability assessment, using a physiologically based demographic modelling approach, identified the coastline extending from the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula through the Mediterranean as area suitable for establishment of T. leucotreta. This assessment indicates that cut roses provide a pathway for the introduction of T. leucotreta into the EU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of marginal land (ML) for lignocellulosic biofuel production is examined for system stability, resilience, and eco-social sustainability. A North American prairie grass system and its industrialization for maximum biomass production using biotechnology and agro-technical inputs is the focus of the analysis. Demographic models of ML biomass production and ethanol farmer/producers are used to examine the stability properties of the ML system. A bio-economic model that maximizes the utility of consumption having the dynamics of MLs and the farmer/producers as dynamic constraints is used to examine the effects of increased conversion efficiency, input costs, risk, and levels of base resources and inputs on the competitive and societal solutions for biomass production. We posit ML abandonment after biofuel production ceases could lead to permanent land degradation below initial levels that prohibit the establishment of the original flora and fauna. (Contains 1 table, 5 figures and 1 note.)

Transgenic insecticidal Bt crops are being increasingly used worldwide, and concern is increasing about resistance and their effects on nontarget organisms. The toxin acts as a weak pesticide and, hence, the effects are subtler than those of chemical biocides. However, the toxin is ever present, but concentrations vary with age of plant and plant subunit, causing varying lethal and sublethal effects on pest survival, developmental time, and fecundity. Refuges for susceptibility to Bt occur spatially in non-Bt hosts and temporally within the crop because of time-varying toxicity and pest tolerance. Natural enemies feeding on Bt-intoxicated prey may have reduced longevity and, likely, fecundity that reduces their efficacy in controlling pest populations, and pest resurgence and secondary pest outbreaks may occur that may require insecticide use. System modeling is proposed as an efficient tool for examining the use of extant and future biotechnologies in pest control.