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Drought has affected much of the western United States since about the year 2000, including the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Using a time series of UCRB streamflow derived from a tree‐ring based reconstruction of UCRB streamflow for the years 1 CE through 1905 CE, together with naturalized UCRB streamflow values for 1906 CE through 2021 CE, we identify 51 drought events, including the 2000–2021 drought. Although the recent 2000–2021 drought has been relatively severe, it is not the most severe of the UCRB drought events we identified. Results also indicate that natural variability combined with projected climate warming can result in UCRB drought events that are more severe than any drought since 1 CE. Plain Language Summary: A long and severe drought has affected much of the western United States since about the year 2000 CE, including the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Comparing this drought to past UCRB droughts (during 1 CE through 2021 CE), we find that the 2000–2021 drought is not the most severe UCRB drought. The results also suggest that natural variability combined with projected climate warming could result in UCRB drought events that are more severe than any drought since 1 CE. Key Points: We identify 51 drought events for the years 1 CE through 2021 CE for the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB)Twelve of the 51 UCRB droughts we identify were more severe than the 2000–2021 droughtNatural variability and/or a 1°C temperature increase can trigger UCRB droughts that are more severe than the 2000–2021 drought [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A method for characterizing the subsurface is developed using an artificial neural network (ANN) and geographic information system (GIS). Data on the distribution of aquifer materials from monitoring well lithologic logs are used to train a multilayer perceptron using the back-propagation algorithm. The trained ANN predicts using an appropriate prediction scale, the subsurface formation materials at each point on a discretized grid of the model area. GIS is then used to develop subsurface profiles from the data generated using the ANN. These subsurface profiles are then compared with available geological sections to check the accuracy of the ANN-GIS generated profiles. This methodology is applied to determine the aquifer extent and calculate aquifer parameters for input to ground-water models for the multiaquifer system underlying the city of Bangkok, Thailand. A selected portion of the model domain is used for illustration. The integrated approach of ANN and GIS is shown to be a powerful tool for characterizing complex aquifer geometry, and for calculating aquifer parameters for ground-water flow modeling.

Across the Upper Missouri River Basin, the recent drought of 2000 to 2010, known as the "turn-of-the-century drought," was likely more severe than any in the instrumental record including the Dust Bowl drought. However, until now, adequate proxy records needed to better understand this event with regard to long-term variability have been lacking. Here we examine 1,200 y of streamflow from a network of 17 new tree-ring-based reconstructions for gages across the upper Missouri basin and an independent reconstruction of warm-season regional temperature in order to place the recent drought in a long-term climate context. We find that temperature has increasingly influenced the severity of drought events by decreasing runoff efficiency in the basin since the late 20th century (1980s) onward. The occurrence of extreme heat, higher evapotranspiration, and associated low-flow conditions across the basin has increased substantially over the 20th and 21st centuries, and recent warming aligns with increasing drought severities that rival or exceed any estimated over the last 12 centuries. Future warming is anticipated to cause increasingly severe droughts by enhancing water deficits that could prove challenging for water management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subhrendu Gangopadhyay [1] Ashim Das Gupta [2,4] M.H. Nachabe [3] Abstract Principal component analysis is a data reduction technique used to identify the important components or factors that explain most [...]