1. Bond risk premia, macroeconomic factors and financial crisis in the euro area
- Author
-
García, Juan Angel and Werner, Sebastian E. V.
- Subjects
model selection ,C52 ,financial crisis ,bond risk premium ,ddc:330 ,E44 ,G01 ,G12 ,macro factors ,C55 ,E43 ,variable selection - Abstract
This paper investigates the power of macroeconomic factors to explain euro area bond risk premia using (i) a large dataset that captures the nowadays data-rich environment (ii) the Elastic Net variable selection. We find that macroeconomic factors, in particular economic activity and sentiment indicators, explain 40% of the variability of risk premia before the crisis, and up to 55% during the financial crisis, and both for core countries (from 40% to 60%) and periphery countries (from 35% to 44%). Moreover, macroeconomic factor models clearly outperform financial indicators like the CP-factor and credit default swap (CDS) premia, even in periods of significant market turbulence.
- Published
- 2016