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This paper presents an analysis of the sensitivity of single event upset (SEU) rate predictions to changes in the direct ionization-inducing environment. An examination based on the nature of the SEU rate equation is presented for the case in which the perturbation is constant across varying particle linear energy transfer (LET). It is shown that the relative variation in SEU rate is equal to the relative perturbation in flux. Results are also presented for the case in which the environment perturbations exist in small LET bins. Through this analysis it is shown that the relative variation in expected SEU rate is equal to that in flux only for the LET regime in which the product of the cross section and differential flux is maximum.

This paper describes the process of integrating available environment models into a single package that calculates the radiation environment for any earth orbit quickly and accurately with the only input being initial orbit parameters, launch date and length of mission, and units of output. The radiation dose is calculated for particles penetrating varying aluminum shielding thicknesses and incident upon several materials inside. Included also are modifications that have been made to the codes that account for the decrease of the magnetic field with time, which allows the use of data taken in the past to accurately predict a future environment. The complete package has relatively short run times, 20 minutes per mission on a Micro VAX II, allowing multiple iterations for application to mission design and planning.

A conceptual manned mission to Mars is analyzed in order to estimate potential ionizing radiation doses that may be incurred by crew members during the course of the mission. The scenario is set for a journey during the solar active period and includes a brief stay on the Martian surface. Propulsion is assumed to be provided by nuclear thermal rocket power, and estimates of the dose contributions from the reactors are included. However, due to effective shielding of the reactors by large propellant tanks, it is found that the incurred doses are principally due to the charged particle natural environment. Recent data (August-December 1989) for large solar proton events are used to simulate the flame environment, while standard models are used for the trapped particle and galactic cosmic ray contributions. Shield effectiveness for several candidate materials are investigated.