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BACKGROUNDCOVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) virus-specific antibody levels that translate into recipient posttransfusion antibody levels sufficient to prevent disease progression are not defined.METHODSThis secondary analysis correlated donor and recipient antibody levels to hospitalization risk among unvaccinated, seronegative CCP recipients within the outpatient, double-blind, randomized clinical trial that compared CCP to control plasma. The majority of COVID-19 CCP arm hospitalizations (15/17, 88%) occurred in this unvaccinated, seronegative subgroup. A functional cutoff to delineate recipient high versus low posttransfusion antibody levels was established by 2 methods: (i) analyzing virus neutralization-equivalent anti-Spike receptor-binding domain immunoglobulin G (anti-S-RBD IgG) responses in donors or (ii) receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.RESULTSSARS-CoV-2 anti-S-RBD IgG antibody was volume diluted 21.3-fold into posttransfusion seronegative recipients from matched donor units. Virus-specific antibody delivered was approximately 1.2 mg. The high-antibody recipients transfused early (symptom onset within 5 days) had no hospitalizations. A CCP-recipient analysis for antibody thresholds correlated to reduced hospitalizations found a statistical significant association between early transfusion and high antibodies versus all other CCP recipients (or control plasma), with antibody cutoffs established by both methods-donor-based virus neutralization cutoffs in posttransfusion recipients (0/85 [0%] versus 15/276 [5.6%]; P = 0.03) or ROC-based cutoff (0/94 [0%] versus 15/267 [5.4%]; P = 0.01).CONCLUSIONIn unvaccinated, seronegative CCP recipients, early transfusion of plasma units in the upper 30% of study donors antibody levels reduced outpatient hospitalizations. High antibody level plasma units, given early, should be reserved for therapeutic use.TRIAL REGISTRATIONClinicalTrials.gov NCT04373460.FUNDINGDepartment of Defense (W911QY2090012); Defense Health Agency; Bloomberg Philanthropies; the State of Maryland; NIH (3R01AI152078-01S1, U24TR001609-S3, 1K23HL151826NIH); the Mental Wellness Foundation; the Moriah Fund; Octapharma; the Healthnetwork Foundation; the Shear Family Foundation; the NorthShore Research Institute; and the Rice Foundation.

This study examined the role that cytokines may have played in the beneficial outcomes found when outpatient individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 were transfused with COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) early in their infection. We found that the pro-inflammatory cytokine IL-6 decreased significantly faster in patients treated early with CCP. Participants with COVID-19 treated with CCP later in the infection did not have the same effect. This decrease in IL-6 levels after early CCP treatment suggests a possible role of inflammation in COVID-19 progression. The evidence of IL-6 involvement brings insight into the possible mechanisms involved in CCP treatment mitigating SARS-CoV-2 severity.

BackgroundEstimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs. The objective of our study was to forecast the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States (US) through 2030.Methods and findingsUsing the PEARL model-an agent-based simulation of PWH who have initiated ART in the US-the prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV) were forecasted through 2030. Simulations were informed by the US CDC HIV surveillance data of new HIV diagnosis and the longitudinal North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) data on risk of comorbidities from 2009 to 2017. The simulated population represented 15 subgroups of PWH including Hispanic, non-Hispanic White (White), and non-Hispanic Black/African American (Black/AA) men who have sex with men (MSM), men and women with history of injection drug use and heterosexual men and women. Simulations were replicated for 200 runs and forecasted outcomes are presented as median values (95% uncertainty ranges are presented in the Supporting information). In 2020, PEARL forecasted a median population of 670,000 individuals receiving ART in the US, of whom 9% men and 4% women with history of injection drug use, 60% MSM, 8% heterosexual men, and 19% heterosexual women. Additionally, 44% were Black/AA, 32% White, and 23% Hispanic. Along with a gradual rise in population size of PWH receiving ART-reaching 908,000 individuals by 2030-PEARL forecasted a surge in prevalence of most comorbidities to 2030. Depression and/or anxiety was high and increased from 60% in 2020 to 64% in 2030. Hypertension decreased while dyslipidemia, diabetes, CKD, and MI increased. There was little change in prevalence of cancer and ESLD. The forecasted multimorbidity among PWH receiving ART increased from 63% in 2020 to 70% in 2030. There was heterogeneity in trends across subgroups. Among Black women with history of injection drug use in 2030 (oldest demographic subgroup with median age of 66 year), dyslipidemia, CKD, hypertension, diabetes, anxiety, and depression were most prevalent, with 92% experiencing multimorbidity. Among Black MSM in 2030 (youngest demographic subgroup with median age of 42 year), depression and CKD were highly prevalent, with 57% experiencing multimorbidity. These results are limited by the assumption that trends in new HIV diagnoses, mortality, and comorbidity risk observed in 2009 to 2017 will persist through 2030; influences occurring outside this period are not accounted for in the forecasts.ConclusionsThe PEARL forecasts suggest a continued rise in comorbidity and multimorbidity prevalence to 2030, marked by heterogeneities across race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk subgroups. HIV clinicians must stay current on the ever-changing comorbidities-specific guidelines to provide guideline-recommended care. HIV clinical directors should ensure linkages to subspecialty care within the clinic or by referral. HIV policy decision-makers must allocate resources and support extended clinical capacity to meet the healthcare needs of people aging with HIV.

Post-COVID conditions (PCCs) are common and have significant morbidity. Risk factors for PCC include advancing age, female sex, obesity, and diabetes mellitus. Little is known about treatment, inflammation, and PCC. Among 882 individuals with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection participating in a randomized trial of COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) vs control plasma with available biospecimens and symptom data, the association between early CCP treatment, cytokine levels, and PCC was evaluated. Cytokine and chemokine levels were assessed at baseline, day 14, and day 90 using a multiplexed sandwich immunoassay (Meso Scale Discovery). Presence of any self-reported PCC symptoms was assessed at day 90. Associations between CCP treatment, cytokine levels, and PCC were examined using multivariate logistic regression models. One third of the 882 participants had day 90 PCC symptoms, with fatigue (14.5%) and anosmia (14.5%) being most common. Cytokine levels decreased from baseline to day 90. In a multivariable analysis, female sex (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 2.69 [1.93-3.81]), older age (AOR = 1.32 [1.17-1.50]), and elevated baseline levels of IL-6 (AOR = 1.59 [1.02-2.47]) were independently associated with development of PCC. Those who received early CCP treatment (≤5 days after symptom onset) compared to late CCP treatment had statistically significant lower odds of PCC. IMPORTANCE Approximately 20% of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 experienced long-term health effects, as defined PCC. However, it is unknown if there are any early biomarkers associated with PCC or whether early intervention treatments may decrease the risk of PCC. In a secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial, this study demonstrates that among outpatients with SARS-CoV-2, increased IL-6 at time of infection is associated with increased odds of PCC. In addition, among individuals treated early, within 5 days of symptom onset, with COVID-19 convalescent plasma, there was a trend for decreased odds of PCC after adjusting for other demographic and clinical characteristics. Future treatment studies should be considered to evaluate the effect of early treatment and anti-IL-6 therapies on PCC development.

BACKGROUND: Cytokines and chemokines play a critical role in the response to infection and vaccination. We aimed to assess the longitudinal association of COVID-19 vaccination with cytokine and chemokine concentrations and trajectories among people with SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: In this longitudinal, prospective cohort study, blood samples were used from participants enrolled in a multi-centre randomised trial assessing the efficacy of convalescent plasma therapy for ambulatory COVID-19. The trial was conducted in 23 outpatient sites in the USA. In this study, participants (aged ≥18 years) were restricted to those with COVID-19 before vaccination or with breakthrough infections who had blood samples and symptom data collected at screening (pre-transfusion), day 14, and day 90 visits. Associations between COVID-19 vaccination status and concentrations of 21 cytokines and chemokines (measured using multiplexed sandwich immunoassays) were examined using multivariate linear mixed-effects regression models, adjusted for age, sex, BMI, hypertension, diabetes, trial group, and COVID-19 waves (pre-alpha or alpha and delta). FINDINGS: Between June 29, 2020, and Sept 30, 2021, 882 participants recently infected with SARS-CoV-2 were enrolled, of whom 506 (57%) were female and 376 (43%) were male. 688 (78%) of 882 participants were unvaccinated, 55 (6%) were partly vaccinated, and 139 (16%) were fully vaccinated at baseline. After adjusting for confounders, geometric mean concentrations of interleukin (IL)-2RA, IL-7, IL-8, IL-15, IL-29 (interferon-λ), inducible protein-10, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, and tumour necrosis factor-α were significantly lower among the fully vaccinated group than in the unvaccinated group at screening. On day 90, fully vaccinated participants had approximately 20% lower geometric mean concentrations of IL-7, IL-8, and vascular endothelial growth factor-A than unvaccinated participants. Cytokine and chemokine concentrations decreased over time in the fully and partly vaccinated groups and unvaccinated group. Log10 cytokine and chemokine concentrations decreased faster among participants in the unvaccinated group than in other groups, but their geometric mean concentrations were generally higher than fully vaccinated participants at 90 days. Days since full vaccination and type of vaccine received were not correlated with cytokine and chemokine concentrations. INTERPRETATION: Initially and during recovery from symptomatic COVID-19, fully vaccinated participants had lower concentrations of inflammatory markers than unvaccinated participants suggesting vaccination is associated with short-term and long-term reduction in inflammation, which could in part explain the reduced disease severity and mortality in vaccinated individuals. FUNDING: US Department of Defense, National Institutes of Health, Bloomberg Philanthropies, State of Maryland, Mental Wellness Foundation, Moriah Fund, Octapharma, HealthNetwork Foundation, and the Shear Family Foundation.

BackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) convalescent plasma (CCP) reduces hospitalizations among outpatients treated early after symptom onset. It is unknown whether CCP reduces time to symptom resolution among outpatients.MethodsWe evaluated symptom resolution at day 14 by trial arm using an adjusted subdistribution hazard model, with hospitalization as a competing risk. We also assessed the prevalence of symptom clusters at day 14 between treatments. Clusters were defined based on biologic clustering, impact on ability to work, and an algorithm.ResultsAmong 1070 outpatients followed up after transfusion, 381 of 538 (70.8%) receiving CCP and 381 of 532 (71.6%) receiving control plasma were still symptomatic (P = .78) at day 14. Associations between CCP and symptom resolution by day 14 did not differ significantly from those in controls after adjustment for baseline characteristics (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio, 0.99; P = .62). The most common cluster consisted of cough, fatigue, shortness of breath, and headache and was found in 308 (57.2%) and 325 (61.1%) of CCP and control plasma recipients, respectively (P = .16).ConclusionsIn this trial of outpatients with early COVID-19, CCP was not associated with faster resolution of symptoms compared with control. Overall, there were no differences by treatment in the prevalence of each symptom or symptom clusters at day 14.Clinical trials registrationNCT04373460.

BackgroundThe efficacy of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) convalescent plasma (CCP) for preventing infection in exposed, uninfected individuals is unknown. CCP might prevent infection when administered before symptoms or laboratory evidence of infection.MethodsThis double-blinded, phase 2 randomized, controlled trial (RCT) compared the efficacy and safety of prophylactic high titer (≥1:320 by Euroimmun ELISA) CCP with standard plasma. Asymptomatic participants aged ≥18 years with close contact exposure to a person with confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the previous 120 hours and negative SARS-CoV-2 test within 24 hours before transfusion were eligible. The primary outcome was new SARS-CoV-2 infection.ResultsIn total, 180 participants were enrolled; 87 were assigned to CCP and 93 to control plasma, and 170 transfused at 19 sites across the United States from June 2020 to March 2021. Two were excluded for screening SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) positivity. Of the remaining 168 participants, 12/81 (14.8%) CCP and 13/87 (14.9%) control recipients developed SARS-CoV-2 infection; 6 (7.4%) CCP and 7 (8%) control recipients developed COVID-19 (infection with symptoms). There were no COVID-19-related hospitalizations in CCP and 2 in control recipients. Efficacy by restricted mean infection free time (RMIFT) by 28 days for all SARS-CoV-2 infections (25.3 vs 25.2 days; P = .49) and COVID-19 (26.3 vs 25.9 days; P = .35) was similar for both groups.ConclusionsAdministration of high-titer CCP as post-exposure prophylaxis, although appearing safe, did not prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection.Clinical trials registrationNCT04323800.

A care cascade is a critical tool for evaluating delivery of care for chronic infections across sequential stages, starting with diagnosis and ending with viral suppression. However, there have been few data describing the hepatitis B virus (HBV) care cascade among people living with HIV infection who have HBV coinfection. We conducted a cross-sectional study among people living with HIV and HBV coinfection receiving care between January 1, 2012 and December 31, 2016 within 13 United States and Canadian clinical cohorts contributing data to the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD). We evaluated each of the steps in this cascade, including: 1) laboratory-confirmed HBV infection, 2) tenofovir-based or entecavir-based HBV therapy prescribed, 3) HBV DNA measured during treatment, and 4) viral suppression achieved via undetectable HBV DNA. Among 3,953 persons with laboratory-confirmed HBV (median age, 50 years; 6.5% female; 43.8% were Black; 7.1% were Hispanic), 3,592 (90.9%; 95% confidence interval, 90.0-91.8%) were prescribed tenofovir-based antiretroviral therapy or entecavir along with their antiretroviral therapy regimen, 2,281 (57.7%; 95% confidence interval, 56.2-59.2%) had HBV DNA measured while on therapy, and 1,624 (41.1%; 95% confidence interval, 39.5-42.6) achieved an undetectable HBV DNA during HBV treatment. Our study identified significant gaps in measurement of HBV DNA and suppression of HBV viremia among people living with HIV and HBV coinfection in the United States and Canada. Periodic evaluation of the HBV care cascade among persons with HIV/HBV will be critical to monitoring success in completion of each step.

Accurate, highly specific immunoassays for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are needed to evaluate seroprevalence. This study investigated the concordance of results across four immunoassays targeting different antigens for sera collected at the beginning of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the United States. Specimens from All of Us participants contributed between January and March 2020 were tested using the Abbott Architect SARS-CoV-2 IgG (immunoglobulin G) assay (Abbott) and the EuroImmun SARS-CoV-2 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) (EI). Participants with discordant results, participants with concordant positive results, and a subset of concordant negative results by Abbott and EI were also tested using the Roche Elecsys anti-SARS-CoV-2 (IgG) test (Roche) and the Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics Vitros anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG test (Ortho). The agreement and 95% confidence intervals were estimated for paired assay combinations. SARS-CoV-2 antibody concentrations were quantified for specimens with at least two positive results across four immunoassays. Among the 24,079 participants, the percent agreement for the Abbott and EI assays was 98.8% (95% confidence interval, 98.7%, 99%). Of the 490 participants who were also tested by Ortho and Roche, the probability-weighted percentage of agreement (95% confidence interval) between Ortho and Roche was 98.4% (97.9%, 98.9%), that between EI and Ortho was 98.5% (92.9%, 99.9%), that between Abbott and Roche was 98.9% (90.3%, 100.0%), that between EI and Roche was 98.9% (98.6%, 100.0%), and that between Abbott and Ortho was 98.4% (91.2%, 100.0%). Among the 32 participants who were positive by at least 2 immunoassays, 21 had quantifiable anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody concentrations by research assays. The results across immunoassays revealed concordance during a period of low prevalence. However, the frequency of false positivity during a period of low prevalence supports the use of two sequentially performed tests for unvaccinated individuals who are seropositive by the first test. IMPORTANCE What is the agreement of commercial SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G (IgG) assays during a time of low coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prevalence and no vaccine availability? Serological tests produced concordant results in a time of low SARS-CoV-2 prevalence and no vaccine availability, driven largely by the proportion of samples that were negative by two immunoassays. The CDC recommends two sequential tests for positivity for future pandemic preparedness. In a subset analysis, quantified antinucleocapsid and antispike SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies do not suggest the need to specify the antigen targets of the sequential assays in the CDC's recommendation because false positivity varied as much between assays targeting the same antigen as it did between assays targeting different antigens.

BackgroundThe updated Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index 2.0 combines general and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-specific biomarkers to generate a continuous score that accurately discriminates risk of mortality in diverse cohorts of persons with HIV (PWH), but a score alone is difficult to interpret. Using data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration (NA-ACCORD), we translate VACS Index 2.0 scores into validated probability estimates of mortality.MethodsBecause complete mortality ascertainment is essential for accurate calibration, we restricted analyses to cohorts with mortality from the National Death Index or equivalent sources. VACS Index 2.0 components were ascertained from October 1999 to April 2018. Mortality was observed up to March 2019. Calibration curves compared predicted (estimated by fitting a gamma model to the score) to observed mortality overall and within subgroups: cohort (VACS/NA-ACCORD subset), sex, age 500 copies/mL, CD4 count

The All of Us Research Program seeks to engage at least one million diverse participants to advance precision medicine and improve human health. We describe here the cloud-based Researcher Workbench that uses a data passport model to democratize access to analytical tools and participant information including survey, physical measurement, and electronic health record (EHR) data. We also present validation study findings for several common complex diseases to demonstrate use of this novel platform in 315,000 participants, 78% of whom are from groups historically underrepresented in biomedical research, including 49% self-reporting non-White races. Replication findings include medication usage pattern differences by race in depression and type 2 diabetes, validation of known cancer associations with smoking, and calculation of cardiovascular risk scores by reported race effects. The cloud-based Researcher Workbench represents an important advance in enabling secure access for a broad range of researchers to this large resource and analytical tools.

BackgroundPolyclonal convalescent plasma may be obtained from donors who have recovered from coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). The efficacy of this plasma in preventing serious complications in outpatients with recent-onset Covid-19 is uncertain.MethodsIn this multicenter, double-blind, randomized, controlled trial, we evaluated the efficacy and safety of Covid-19 convalescent plasma, as compared with control plasma, in symptomatic adults (≥18 years of age) who had tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, regardless of their risk factors for disease progression or vaccination status. Participants were enrolled within 8 days after symptom onset and received a transfusion within 1 day after randomization. The primary outcome was Covid-19-related hospitalization within 28 days after transfusion.ResultsParticipants were enrolled from June 3, 2020, through October 1, 2021. A total of 1225 participants underwent randomization, and 1181 received a transfusion. In the prespecified modified intention-to-treat analysis that included only participants who received a transfusion, the primary outcome occurred in 17 of 592 participants (2.9%) who received convalescent plasma and 37 of 589 participants (6.3%) who received control plasma (absolute risk reduction, 3.4 percentage points; 95% confidence interval, 1.0 to 5.8; P = 0.005), which corresponded to a relative risk reduction of 54%. Evidence of efficacy in vaccinated participants cannot be inferred from these data because 53 of the 54 participants with Covid-19 who were hospitalized were unvaccinated and 1 participant was partially vaccinated. A total of 16 grade 3 or 4 adverse events (7 in the convalescent-plasma group and 9 in the control-plasma group) occurred in participants who were not hospitalized.ConclusionsIn participants with Covid-19, most of whom were unvaccinated, the administration of convalescent plasma within 9 days after the onset of symptoms reduced the risk of disease progression leading to hospitalization. (Funded by the Department of Defense and others; CSSC-004 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04373460.).

Convalescent plasma, collected from donors who have recovered from a pathogen of interest, has been used to treat infectious diseases, particularly in times of outbreak, when alternative therapies were unavailable. The COVID-19 pandemic revived interest in the use of convalescent plasma. Large observational studies and clinical trials that were executed during the pandemic provided insight into how to use convalescent plasma, whereby high levels of antibodies against the pathogen of interest and administration early within the time course of the disease are critical for optimal therapeutic effect. Several studies have shown outpatient administration of COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) to be both safe and effective, preventing clinical progression in patients when administered within the first week of COVID-19. The United States Food and Drug Administration expanded its emergency use authorization (EUA) to allow for the administration of CCP in an outpatient setting in December 2021, at least for immunocompromised patients or those on immunosuppressive therapy. Outpatient transfusion of CCP and infusion of monoclonal antibody therapies for a highly transmissible infectious disease introduces nuanced challenges related to infection prevention. Drawing on our experiences with the clinical and research use of CCP, we describe the logistical considerations and workflow spanning procurement of qualified products, infrastructure, staffing, transfusion, and associated management of adverse events. The purpose of this description is to facilitate the efforts of others intent on establishing outpatient transfusion programs for CCP and other antibody-based therapies.

BackgroundWith limited severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) testing capacity in the United States at the start of the epidemic (January-March 2020), testing was focused on symptomatic patients with a travel history throughout February, obscuring the picture of SARS-CoV-2 seeding and community transmission. We sought to identify individuals with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the early weeks of the US epidemic.MethodsAll of Us study participants in all 50 US states provided blood specimens during study visits from 2 January to 18 March 2020. Participants were considered seropositive if they tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies with the Abbott Architect SARS-CoV-2 IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and the EUROIMMUN SARS-CoV-2 ELISA in a sequential testing algorithm. The sensitivity and specificity of these ELISAs and the net sensitivity and specificity of the sequential testing algorithm were estimated, along with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).ResultsThe estimated sensitivities of the Abbott and EUROIMMUN assays were 100% (107 of 107 [95% CI: 96.6%-100%]) and 90.7% (97 of 107 [83.5%-95.4%]), respectively, and the estimated specificities were 99.5% (995 of 1000 [98.8%-99.8%]) and 99.7% (997 of 1000 [99.1%-99.9%]), respectively. The net sensitivity and specificity of our sequential testing algorithm were 90.7% (97 of 107 [95% CI: 83.5%-95.4%]) and 100.0% (1000 of 1000 [99.6%-100%]), respectively. Of the 24 079 study participants with blood specimens from 2 January to 18 March 2020, 9 were seropositive, 7 before the first confirmed case in the states of Illinois, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Mississippi.ConclusionsOur findings identified SARS-CoV-2 infections weeks before the first recognized cases in 5 US states.

IntroductionThe NIH All of Us Research Program will have the scale and scope to enable research for a wide range of diseases, including cancer. The program's focus on diversity and inclusion promises a better understanding of the unequal burden of cancer. Preliminary cancer ascertainment in the All of Us cohort from two data sources (self-reported versus electronic health records (EHR)) is considered.Materials and methodsThis work was performed on data collected from the All of Us Research Program's 315,297 enrolled participants to date using the Researcher Workbench, where approved researchers can access and analyze All of Us data on cancer and other diseases. Cancer case ascertainment was performed using data from EHR and self-reported surveys across key factors. Distribution of cancer types and concordance of data sources by cancer site and demographics is analyzed.Results and discussionData collected from 315,297 participants resulted in 13,298 cancer cases detected in the survey (in 89,261 participants), 23,520 cancer cases detected in the EHR (in 203,813 participants), and 7,123 cancer cases detected across both sources (in 62,497 participants). Key differences in survey completion by race/ethnicity impacted the makeup of cohorts when compared to cancer in the EHR and national NCI SEER data.ConclusionsThis study provides key insight into cancer detection in the All of Us Research Program and points to the existing strengths and limitations of All of Us as a platform for cancer research now and in the future.

IntroductionNational obesity prevention strategies may benefit from precision health approaches involving diverse participants in population health studies. We used cohort data from the National Institutes of Health All of Us Research Program (All of Us) Researcher Workbench to estimate population-level obesity prevalence.MethodsTo estimate state-level obesity prevalence we used data from physical measurements made during All of Us enrollment visits and data from participant electronic health records (EHRs) where available. Prevalence estimates were calculated and mapped by state for 2 categories of body mass index (BMI) (kg/m2): obesity (BMI >30) and severe obesity (BMI >35). We calculated and mapped prevalence by state, excluding states with fewer than 100 All of Us participants.ResultsData on height and weight were available for 244,504 All of Us participants from 33 states, and corresponding EHR data were available for 88,840 of these participants. The median and IQR of BMI taken from physical measurements data was 28.4 (24.4- 33.7) and 28.5 (24.5-33.6) from EHR data, where available. Overall obesity prevalence based on physical measurements data was 41.5% (95% CI, 41.3%-41.7%); prevalence of severe obesity was 20.7% (95% CI, 20.6-20.9), with large geographic variations observed across states. Prevalence estimates from states with greater numbers of All of Us participants were more similar to national population-based estimates than states with fewer participants.ConclusionAll of Us participants had a high prevalence of obesity, with state-level geographic variation mirroring national trends. The diversity among All of Us participants may support future investigations on obesity prevention and treatment in diverse populations.

From 2005 to 2018, among 32013 adults with human immunodeficiency virus entering care, median time to antiretroviral therapy (ART) prescription declined from 69 to 6 days, CD4 count at entry into care increased from 300 to 362 cells/μL, and CD4 count at ART prescription increased from 160 to 364 cells/μL.

BackgroundIn the USA, Black and Hispanic or Latinx individuals continue to be disproportionately affected by HIV. Applying a distributional cost-effectiveness framework, we estimated the cost-effectiveness and epidemiological impact of two combination implementation approaches to identify the approach that best meets the dual objectives of improving population health and reducing racial or ethnic health disparities.MethodsWe adapted a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model to characterise HIV micro-epidemics in six US cities: Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, and Seattle. We considered combinations of 16 evidence-based interventions to diagnose, treat, and prevent HIV transmission according to previously documented levels of scale-up. We then identified optimal combination strategies for each city, with the distribution of each intervention implemented according to existing service levels (proportional services approach) and the racial or ethnic distribution of new diagnoses (between Black, Hispanic or Latinx, and White or other ethnicity individuals; equity approach). We estimated total costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of strategies implemented from 2020 to 2030 (health-care perspective; 20-year time horizon; 3% annual discount rate). We estimated three measures of health inequality (between-group variance, index of disparity, Theil index), incidence rate ratios, and rate differences for the selected strategies under each approach.FindingsIn all cities, optimal combination strategies under the equity approach generated more QALYs than those with proportional services, ranging from a 3·1% increase (95% credible interval [CrI] 1·4-5·3) in New York to more than double (101·9% [75·4-134·6]) in Atlanta. Compared with proportional services, the equity approach delivered lower costs over 20 years in all cities except Los Angeles; cost reductions ranged from $22·9 million (95% CrI 5·3-55·7 million) in Seattle to $579·8 million (255·4-940·5 million) in Atlanta. The equity approach also reduced incidence disparities and health inequality measures in all cities except Los Angeles.InterpretationEquity-focused HIV combination implementation strategies that reduce disparities for Black and Hispanic or Latinx individuals can significantly improve population health, reduce costs, and drive progress towards Ending the HIV Epidemic goals in the USA.FundingNational Institute on Drug Abuse.

BackgroundPersons with HIV (PWH) with persistently low CD4 counts despite efficacious antiretroviral therapy could have higher hospitalization risk.MethodsIn six US and Canadian clinical cohorts, PWH with virologic suppression for ≥1 year in 2005-2015 were followed until virologic failure, loss to follow-up, death, or study end. Stratified by early (Years 2-5) and long-term (Years 6-11) suppression and lowest pre-suppression CD4 count 500 cells/μL had an aIRR of 1.44 during early suppression (95% CI 1.01-2.06), and 1.67 (1.03-2.72) during long-term suppression. Among patients with lowest pre-suppression CD4 ≥200 (56%), patients with current CD4 351-500 versus >500 cells/μL had an aIRR of 1.22 (0.93-1.60) during early suppression and 2.09 (1.18-3.70) during long-term suppression.ConclusionsVirologically suppressed patients with lower CD4 counts experienced higher hospitalization rates, and could potentially benefit from targeted clinical management strategies.

PurposeTo (1) use All of Us (AoU) data to validate a previously published single-center model predicting the need for surgery among individuals with glaucoma, (2) train new models using AoU data, and (3) share insights regarding this novel data source for ophthalmic research.DesignDevelopment and evaluation of machine learning models.MethodsElectronic health record data were extracted from AoU for 1,231 adults diagnosed with primary open-angle glaucoma. The single-center model was applied to AoU data for external validation. AoU data were then used to train new models for predicting the need for glaucoma surgery using multivariable logistic regression, artificial neural networks, and random forests. Five-fold cross-validation was performed. Model performance was evaluated based on area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, precision, and recall.ResultsThe mean (standard deviation) age of the AoU cohort was 69.1 (10.5) years, with 57.3% women and 33.5% black, significantly exceeding representation in the single-center cohort (P = .04 and P < .001, respectively). Of 1,231 participants, 286 (23.2%) needed glaucoma surgery. When applying the single-center model to AoU data, accuracy was 0.69 and AUC was only 0.49. Using AoU data to train new models resulted in superior performance: AUCs ranged from 0.80 (logistic regression) to 0.99 (random forests).ConclusionsModels trained with national AoU data achieved superior performance compared with using single-center data. Although AoU does not currently include ophthalmic imaging, it offers several strengths over similar big-data sources such as claims data. AoU is a promising new data source for ophthalmic research.

The All of Us Research Program was designed to enable broad-based precision medicine research in a cohort of unprecedented scale and diversity. Hypertension (HTN) is a major public health concern. The validity of HTN data and definition of hypertension cases in the All of Us (AoU) Research Program for use in rule-based algorithms is unknown. In this cross-sectional, population-based study, we compare HTN prevalence in the AoU Research Program to HTN prevalence in the 2015-2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). We used AoU baseline data from patient (age ≥ 18) measurements (PM), surveys, and electronic health record (EHR) blood pressure measurements. We retrospectively examined the prevalence of HTN in the EHR cohort using Systemized Nomenclature of Medicine (SNOMED) codes and blood pressure medications recorded in the EHR. We defined HTN as the participant having at least 2 HTN diagnosis/billing codes on separate dates in the EHR data AND at least one HTN medication. We calculated an age-standardized HTN prevalence according to the age distribution of the U.S. Census, using 3 groups (18-39, 40-59, and ≥ 60). Among the 185,770 participants enrolled in the AoU Cohort (mean age at enrollment = 51.2 years) available in a Researcher Workbench as of October 2019, EHR data was available for at least one SNOMED code from 112,805 participants, medications for 104,230 participants, and 103,490 participants had both medication and SNOMED data. The total number of persons with SNOMED codes on at least two distinct dates and at least one antihypertensive medication was 33,310 for a crude prevalence of HTN of 32.2%. AoU age-adjusted HTN prevalence was 27.9% using 3 groups compared to 29.6% in NHANES. The AoU cohort is a growing source of diverse longitudinal data to study hypertension nationwide and develop precision rule-based algorithms for use in hypertension treatment and prevention research. The prevalence of hypertension in this cohort is similar to that in prior population-based surveys.

BackgroundTo assess the possible impact of antiretroviral therapy improvements, aging, and comorbidities, we examined trends in all-cause and cause-specific hospitalization rates among persons with HIV (PWH) from 2005 to 2015.MethodsIn 6 clinical cohorts, we followed PWH in care (≥1 outpatient CD4 count or HIV load [VL] every 12 months) and categorized ICD codes of primary discharge diagnoses using modified Clinical Classifications Software. Poisson regression estimated hospitalization rate ratios for calendar time trends, adjusted for demographics, HIV risk factor, and annually updated age, CD4, and VL.ResultsAmong 28 057 patients (125 724 person-years), from 2005 to 2015, the median CD4 increased from 389 to 580 cells/µL and virologic suppression from 55% to 85% of patients. Unadjusted all-cause hospitalization rates decreased from 22.3 per 100 person-years in 2005 (95% confidence interval [CI], 20.6-24.1) to 13.0 in 2015 (95% CI, 12.2-14.0). Unadjusted rates decreased for almost all diagnostic categories. Adjusted rates decreased for all-cause, cardiovascular, and AIDS-defining conditions, increased for non-AIDS-defining infection, and were stable for most other categories.ConclusionsAmong PWH with increasing CD4 counts and viral suppression, unadjusted hospitalization rates decreased for all-cause and most cause-specific hospitalizations, despite the potential effects of aging, comorbidities, and cumulative exposure to HIV and antiretrovirals.

BackgroundWith limited SARS-CoV-2 testing capacity in the US at the start of the epidemic (January - March), testing was focused on symptomatic patients with a travel history throughout February, obscuring the picture of SARS-CoV-2 seeding and community transmission. We sought to identify individuals with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the early weeks of the US epidemic.MethodsAll of Us study participants in all 50 US states provided blood specimens during study visits from January 2 to March 18, 2020. A participant was considered seropositive if they tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies on the Abbott Architect SARS-CoV-2 IgG ELISA and the EUROIMMUN SARS-CoV-2 ELISA in a sequential testing algorithm. Sensitivity and specificity of the Abbott and EUROIMMUNE ELISAs and the net sensitivity and specificity of the sequential testing algorithm were estimated with 95% confidence intervals.ResultsThe estimated sensitivity of Abbott and EUROIMMUN was 100% (107/107 [96.6%, 100%]) and 90.7% (97/107 [83.5%, 95.4%]), respectively. The estimated specificity of Abbott and EUROIMMUN was 99.5% (995/1,000 [98.8%, 99.8%]) and 99.7% (997/1,000 [99.1%, 99.9%), respectively. The net sensitivity and specificity of our sequential testing algorithm was 90.7% (97/107 [83.5%, 95.4%]) and 100.0% (1,000/1,000 [99.6%, 100%]), respectively. Of the 24,079 study participants with blood specimens from January 2 to March 18, 2020, 9 were seropositive, 7 of whom were seropositive prior to the first confirmed case in the states of Illinois, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Mississippi.ConclusionsOur findings indicate SARS-CoV-2 infections weeks prior to the first recognized cases in 5 US states.

BackgroundIt is unknown whether gaining inpatient health care coverage had an effect on hospitalization rates among persons with HIV (PWH) after implementation of the Affordable Care Act in 2014.MethodsHospitalization data from 2015 were obtained for 1634 adults receiving longitudinal HIV care at 3 US HIV clinics within the HIV Research Network. All patients were engaged in care and previously uninsured and supported by the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program in 2013. We evaluated whether PWH who transitioned to either Medicaid or private insurance in 2014 tended to have a change in hospitalization rate compared with PWH who remained uncovered and Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program supported. Analyses were performed by negative binomial regression with robust standard errors, adjusting for gender, race/ethnicity, age, HIV risk factor, CD4 count, viral load, clinic site, and 2013 hospitalization rate.ResultsAmong PWH without inpatient health care coverage in 2013, transitioning to Medicaid [adjusted incidence rate ratio 1.26, (0.71, 2.23)] or to private insurance [0.48 (0.18, 1.28)] in 2014 was not associated with 2015 hospitalization rates, after accounting for demographics, HIV characteristics, and prior hospitalization rates. The factors significantly associated with higher hospitalization rates include age 55-64, CD4 400 copies/mL, and 2013 hospitalization rate.ConclusionsAcquiring inpatient coverage was not associated with a change in hospitalization rates. These results provide some evidence to allay the concern that acquiring inpatient coverage would lead to increased inpatient utilization.

BackgroundWidespread viral and serological testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may present a unique opportunity to also test for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. We estimated the potential impact of adding linked, opt-out HIV testing alongside SARS-CoV-2 testing on the HIV incidence and the cost-effectiveness of this strategy in 6 US cities.MethodsUsing a previously calibrated dynamic HIV transmission model, we constructed 3 sets of scenarios for each city: (1) sustained current levels of HIV-related treatment and prevention services (status quo); (2) temporary disruptions in health services and changes in sexual and injection risk behaviors at discrete levels between 0%-50%; and (3) linked HIV and SARS-CoV-2 testing offered to 10%-90% of the adult population in addition to Scenario 2. We estimated the cumulative number of HIV infections between 2020-2025 and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of linked HIV testing over 20 years.ResultsIn the absence of linked, opt-out HIV testing, we estimated a total of a 16.5% decrease in HIV infections between 2020-2025 in the best-case scenario (50% reduction in risk behaviors and no service disruptions), and a 9.0% increase in the worst-case scenario (no behavioral change and 50% reduction in service access). We estimated that HIV testing (offered at 10%-90% levels) could avert a total of 576-7225 (1.6%-17.2%) new infections. The intervention would require an initial investment of $20.6M-$220.7M across cities; however, the intervention would ultimately result in savings in health-care costs in each city.ConclusionsA campaign in which HIV testing is linked with SARS-CoV-2 testing could substantially reduce the HIV incidence and reduce direct and indirect health care costs attributable to HIV.

BackgroundPersons who inject drugs (PWID) are at a disproportionately high risk of HIV infection. We aimed to determine the highest-valued combination implementation strategies to reduce the burden of HIV among PWID in 6 US cities.MethodsUsing a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated for Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, and Seattle, we assessed the value of implementing combinations of evidence-based interventions at optimistic (drawn from best available evidence) or ideal (90% coverage) scale-up. We estimated reduction in HIV incidence among PWID, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for each city (10-year implementation; 20-year horizon; 2018 $ US).ResultsCombinations that maximized health benefits contained between 6 (Atlanta and Seattle) and 12 (Miami) interventions with ICER values ranging from $94 069/QALY in Los Angeles to $146 256/QALY in Miami. These strategies reduced HIV incidence by 8.1% (credible interval [CI], 2.8%-13.2%) in Seattle and 54.4% (CI, 37.6%-73.9%) in Miami. Incidence reduction reached 16.1%-75.5% at ideal scale.ConclusionsEvidence-based interventions targeted to PWID can deliver considerable value; however, ending the HIV epidemic among PWID will require innovative implementation strategies and supporting programs to reduce social and structural barriers to care.

BackgroundThe HIV epidemic in the USA is a collection of diverse local microepidemics. We aimed to identify optimal combination implementation strategies of evidence-based interventions to reach 90% reduction of incidence in 10 years, in six US cities that comprise 24·1% of people living with HIV in the USA.MethodsIn this economic modelling study, we used a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated with the best available evidence on epidemiological and structural conditions for six US cities: Atlanta (GA), Baltimore (MD), Los Angeles (CA), Miami (FL), New York City (NY), and Seattle (WA). We assessed 23 040 combinations of 16 evidence-based interventions (ie, HIV prevention, testing, treatment, engagement, and re-engagement) to identify combination strategies providing the greatest health benefit while remaining cost-effective. Main outcomes included averted HIV infections, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), total cost (in 2018 US$), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER; from the health-care sector perspective, 3% annual discount rate). Interventions were implemented at previously documented and ideal (90% coverage or adoption) scale-up, and sustained from 2020 to 2030, with outcomes evaluated until 2040.FindingsOptimal combination strategies providing health benefit and cost-effectiveness contained between nine (Seattle) and 13 (Miami) individual interventions. If implemented at previously documented scale-up, these strategies could reduce incidence by between 30·7% (95% credible interval 19·1-43·7; Seattle) and 50·1% (41·5-58·0; New York City) by 2030, at ICERs ranging from cost-saving in Atlanta, Baltimore, and Miami, to $95 416 per QALY in Seattle. Incidence reductions reached between 39·5% (26·3-53·8) in Seattle and 83·6% (70·8-87·0) in Baltimore at ideal implementation. Total costs of implementing strategies across the cities at previously documented scale-up reached $559 million per year in 2024; however, costs were offset by long-term reductions in new infections and delayed disease progression, with Atlanta, Baltimore, and Miami projecting cost savings over the 20 year study period.InterpretationEvidence-based interventions can deliver substantial public health and economic value; however, complementary strategies to overcome social and structural barriers to HIV care will be required to reach national targets of the ending the HIV epidemic initiative by 2030.FundingNational Institutes of Health.

BackgroundPeople living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PLWH) have a markedly elevated anal cancer risk, largely due to loss of immunoregulatory control of oncogenic human papillomavirus infection. To better understand anal cancer development and prevention, we determined whether recent, past, cumulative, or nadir/peak CD4+ T-cell count (CD4) and/or HIV-1 RNA level (HIV RNA) best predict anal cancer risk.MethodsWe studied 102 777 PLWH during 1996-2014 from 21 cohorts participating in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. Using demographics-adjusted, cohort-stratified Cox models, we assessed associations between anal cancer risk and various time-updated CD4 and HIV RNA measures, including cumulative and nadir/peak measures during prespecified moving time windows. We compared models using the Akaike information criterion.ResultsCumulative and nadir/peak CD4 or HIV RNA measures from approximately 8.5 to 4.5 years in the past were generally better predictors for anal cancer risk than their corresponding more recent measures. However, the best model included CD4 nadir (ie, the lowest CD4) from approximately 8.5 years to 6 months in the past (hazard ratio [HR] for

ObjectiveEffective interventions to reduce the public health burden of HIV/AIDS can vary in their ability to deliver value at different levels of scale and in different epidemiological contexts. Our objective was to determine the cost-effectiveness of HIV treatment and prevention interventions implemented at previously documented scales of delivery in six US cities with diverse HIV microepidemics.DesignDynamic HIV transmission model-based cost-effectiveness analysis.MethodsWe identified and estimated previously documented scale of delivery and costs for 16 evidence-based interventions from the US CDC's Compendium of Evidence-Based Interventions and Best Practices for HIV Prevention. Using a model calibrated for Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City and Seattle, we estimated averted HIV infections, quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (healthcare perspective; 3% discount rate, 2018$US), for each intervention and city (10-year implementation) compared with the status quo over a 20-year time horizon.ResultsIncreased HIV testing was cost-saving or cost-effective across cities. Targeted preexposure prophylaxis for high-risk MSM was cost-saving in Miami and cost-effective in Atlanta ($6123/QALY), Baltimore ($18 333/QALY) and Los Angeles ($86 117/QALY). Interventions designed to improve antiretroviral therapy initiation provided greater value than other treatment engagement interventions. No single intervention was projected to reduce HIV incidence by more than 10.1% in any city.ConclusionCombination implementation strategies should be tailored to local epidemiological contexts to provide the most value. Complementary strategies addressing factors hindering access to HIV care will be necessary to meet targets for HIV elimination in the United States.

Background. Heterogeneity in HIV microepidemics across US cities necessitates locally oriented, combination implementation strategies to prioritize resources. We calibrated and validated a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model to establish a status quo treatment scenario, holding constant current levels of care for 6 US cities. Methods. Built off a comprehensive evidence synthesis, we adapted and extended a previously published model to replicate the transmission, progression, and clinical care for each microepidemic. We identified a common set of 17 calibration targets between 2012 and 2015 and used the Morris method to select the most influential parameters for calibration. We then applied the Nelder-Mead algorithm to iteratively calibrate the model to generate 2000 best-fitting parameter sets. Finally, model projections were internally validated with a series of robustness checks and externally validated against published estimates of HIV incidence, while the face validity of 25-year projections was assessed by a Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC). Results. We documented our process for model development, calibration, and validation to maximize its transparency and reproducibility. The projected outcomes demonstrated a good fit to calibration targets, with a mean goodness-of-fit ranging from 0.0174 (New York City [NYC]) to 0.0861 (Atlanta). Most of the incidence predictions were within the uncertainty range for 5 of the 6 cities (ranging from 21% [Miami] to 100% [NYC]), demonstrating good external validity. The face validity of the long-term projections was confirmed by our SAC, showing that the incidence would decrease or remain stable in Atlanta, Los Angeles, NYC, and Seattle while increasing in Baltimore and Miami. Discussion. This exercise provides a basis for assessing the incremental value of further investments in HIV combination implementation strategies tailored to urban HIV microepidemics.

BackgroundThe clinical management of low-level viremia (LLV) remains unclear. The objective of this study was to investigate the association of blips and LLV with virologic failure.MethodsWe enlisted patients who newly enrolled into the HIV Research Network between 2005 and 2015, had HIV-1 RNA more than 200 copies/ml, and were either antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive or ART-experienced and not on ART. Patients were included who achieved virologic suppression (≤50 on two consecutive viral loads) and had at least two viral loads following suppression. Blips and LLV (≥2 consecutive >51 copies/ml) were categorized separately into three categories: no blips/LLV, 51-200, 201-500. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess association between rates of blips/LLV and virologic failure (two consecutive >500).ResultsThe 2795 patients were mostly male (75.4%), black (50.3%), and MSM (52.9%). Median age was 38 years old (interquartile range 29-48). Most patients (88.8%) were ART-naive at study entry. Overall, 283 (10.1%) patients experienced virologic failure. A total of 152 (5.4%) patients experienced LLV to 51-200 and 110 (3.9%) patients experienced LLV to 201-500. Both LLV 51-200 [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.83 (1.10,3.04)] and LLV 201-500 [aHR 4.26 (2.65,6.86)] were associated with virologic failure. In sensitivity analysis excluding ART-experienced patients, the association between LLV 51 and 200 and virologic failure was not statistically significant.ConclusionLLV between 201 and 500 was associated with virologic failure, as was LLV between 51 and 200, particularly among ART-experienced patients. Patients with LLV below the current Department of Health and Human Services threshold for virologic failure (persistent viremia ≥200) may require more intensive monitoring because of increased risk for virologic failure.

BackgroundAccurately estimating HIV disease progression and retention on antiretroviral therapy (ART) can help inform interventions to control HIV microepidemics and mathematical models used to inform health-resource allocation decisions. Our objective was to estimate the monthly probabilities of on-ART CD4 T-cell count progression, mortality, ART dropout, and ART reinitiation using a continuous-time multistate Markov model. We also aimed to validate health-state transition probability estimates to ensure they accurately reproduced the regional HIV microepidemics across the USA.MethodsIn our modelling study, we considered a cohort of patients from the HIV Research Network, a consortium of 17 adult and paediatric HIV-care providers located in the northeastern (n=8), southern (n=5), and western (n=4) regions of the USA. Individuals aged 15 years or older who were in HIV care (defined as one CD4 test and one HIV-care visit in a calendar year period) with at least one ART prescription between Jan 1, 2010, and Dec 31, 2015, were included in the analysis. We used continuous-time multistate Markov models to estimate transitions between CD4 strata and between on-ART and off-ART states. We examined and adjusted for differences in probability of transition by region, race or ethnicity, sex, HIV risk group, and other baseline clinical indicators.FindingsThe median age of the 32 242 individuals included in the analysis was 44 years (interquartile range 35-51). Over a median follow-up of 4·9 years (2·6-6·0), 8614 (26·7%) of 32 242 people interrupted ART and 1325 (4·1%) of 32 242 people died. Women, men who have sex with men, and individuals with no previous ART experience had greater increases in CD4 cell counts, whereas black people and people who inject drugs had increased probabilities of ART dropout and faster disease progression. Regardless of CD4 strata, individuals had increased hazard for ART dropout if they were from the south (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] range from 1·91, 95% CI 1·71-2·13, to 2·45, 2·29-2·62) or the west (aHR range from 1·29, 1·10-1·51, to 1·66, 1·51-1·82) of the USA, compared with individuals from the northeast USA.InterpretationOur results show heterogeneities in disease progression during ART and probability of ART retention across race and ethnicity, HIV risk groups, and regions. These differences should be viewed as targets for intervention and should be incorporated in mathematical models of regional HIV microepidemics in the USA.FundingUS National Institutes of Health, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and Health Resources and Services Administration.

ObjectivesCurrent guidelines recommend screening sexually active persons with HIV (PWH) for Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) and Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) at least annually. Yet, screening rates in many HIV clinics remain low. In this study, we estimated the number needed to screen (NNS) to detect a NG and/or CT infection at each anatomic site among different subpopulations of PWH. NNS provides a concrete, practical measure to aid in assessing the practical impact of screening. METHODS : We included adults in care at three HIV Research Network sites in 2011-2014. Restricting to first tests within each year, annual NNS was defined as number of persons tested divided by number positive. We computed urogenital and extragenital NNS by age and risk group (women, men who have sex with women (MSW) and men who have sex with men (MSM)). RESULTS : A total of 16 864 NG/CT tests were included. Among patients aged ≤25 years, urogenital NNS was similar among women (15 (95% CI 6 to 71)), MSW (21 (95% CI 6 to 167)) and MSM (20 (95% CI 12 to 36)). Over 25, urogenital NNS increased to a greater extent for women (363 (95% CI 167 to 1000)) and MSW (160 (95% CI 100 to 333)) than MSM (46 (95% CI 38 to 56)). The increase for women versus MSM >25 remained significant (p25 years and pharyngeal NNS values were 8 (95% CI 5 to 13) and 20 (95% CI 16 to 24).ConclusionsThese findings suggest the importance of regular, at least annual NG/CT screening, particularly extragenital, of HIV positive MSM of all ages. They provide some support for age-based cutoffs for women and MSW (eg, universal screening for those aged ≤25 and targeted screening for those aged >25 years).

Among 1942 persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) without healthcare coverage in 2012-2015, transitioning to Medicaid (adjusted prevalence ratio, 0.95 [0.87, 1.04]) or to private health insurance (1.04 [0.95, 1.13]) was not associated with a change in consistent HIV viral suppression compared to continued reliance on the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program.

ObjectiveThe costs of medical care for people with HIV/AIDS (PWH) vary substantially across demographic groups, stages of disease progression and regionally across the United States. We aimed to estimate medical costs for PWH and examine the heterogeneity in costs within key patient groups typically distinguished in cost-effectiveness analyses.DesignRetrospective cohort study using health administrative databases for diagnosed PWH in care at 17 HIV Research Network sites across the United States.MethodsWe estimated mean quarterly costs for key patient groups using multivariable generalized linear mixed effects models. We used quantile regression to highlight differences in the effect of covariates within each patient group (difference between covariate estimates at the mean versus the 90th percentile of quarterly costs), identifying covariates with a larger effect among the highest cost PWH, or generating greater uncertainty in mean cost estimates.ResultsOur sample included 40 022 patients with a median age of 39 years. Mean quarterly costs were highest for people who inject drugs with advanced disease progression and for PWH on antiretroviral treatment (ART). Within patient groups, we found the most heterogeneity at different levels of resource use for PWH on ART and PWH off ART with CD4 cell counts less than 200 cells/μl, people who inject drugs, as well as PWH in the South.ConclusionThe study quantifies heterogeneity in costs both across and within key PWH patient groups. Our results highlight the need for sensitivity analysis on cost estimates and may inform decisions on model structure in cost-effectiveness analyses on HIV/AIDS treatment and prevention strategies.

BackgroundDespite the high prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) among persons living with HIV (PWH), the prevalence of HCV screening, treatment, and sustained virologic response (SVR) is unknown. This study aims to characterize the continuum of HCV screening and treatment among PWH in HIV care.SettingAdult patients enrolled at 12 sites of the HIV Research Network located in 3 regions of the United States were included.MethodsWe examined the prevalence of HCV screening, HCV coinfection, direct-acting antiretroviral (DAA) treatment, and SVR-12 between 2014 and 2015. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify characteristics associated with outcomes, adjusted for site.ResultsAmong 29,071 PWH (age 18-87, 74.8% male, 44.4% black), 77.9% were screened for HCV antibodies; 94.6% of those screened had a confirmatory HCV RNA viral load test. Among those tested, 61.1% were determined to have chronic HCV. We estimate that only 23.4% of those eligible for DAA were prescribed DAA, and only 17.8% of those eligible evidenced initiating DAA treatment. Those who initiated treatment achieved SVR-12 at a rate of 95.2%. Blacks and people who inject drugs (PWID) were more likely to be screened for HCV than whites or those with heterosexual risk. Persons older than 40 years, whites, Hispanics, and PWID [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 8.70 (7.74 to 9.78)] were more likely to be coinfected than their counterparts. When examining treatment with DAA, persons older than 50 years, on antiretroviral therapy [AOR 2.27 (1.11 to 4.64)], with HIV-1 RNA

BackgroundResearch is needed to better understand relations between immunosuppression and HIV viraemia and risk for non-Hodgkin lymphoma, a common cancer in people living with HIV. We aimed to identify key CD4 count and HIV RNA (viral load) predictors of risk for non-Hodgkin lymphoma, overall and by subtype.MethodsWe studied people living with HIV during 1996-2014 from 21 Canadian and US cohorts participating in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. To determine key independent predictors of risk for non-Hodgkin lymphoma, we assessed associations with time-updated recent, past, cumulative, and nadir or peak measures of CD4 count and viral load, using demographics-adjusted, cohort-stratified Cox models, and we compared models using Akaike's information criterion.FindingsOf 102 131 people living with HIV during the study period, 712 people developed non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The key independent predictors of risk for overall non-Hodgkin lymphoma were recent CD4 count (ie, lagged by 6 months;

BackgroundThe United States National HIV/AIDS Strategy established goals to reduce disparities in retention in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care, antiretroviral therapy (ART) use, and viral suppression. The impact of sex, age, and sexual HIV acquisition risk (ie, heterosexual vs same-sex contact) on the magnitude of HIV-related racial/ethnic disparities is not well understood.MethodsWe estimated age-stratified racial/ethnic differences in the 5-year restricted mean percentage of person-time spent in care, on ART, and virally suppressed among 19 521 women (21.4%), men who have sex with men (MSM; 59.0%), and men who have sex with women (MSW; 19.6%) entering HIV care in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design between 2004 and 2014.ResultsAmong women aged 18-29 years, whites spent 12.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1%-20.2%), 9.2% (95% CI, .4%-20.4%), and 13.5% (95% CI, 2.7%-22.5%) less person-time in care, on ART, and virally suppressed, respectively, than Hispanics. Black MSM aged ≥50 years spent 6.3% (95% CI, 1.3%-11.7%), 11.0% (95% CI, 4.6%-18.1%), and 9.7% (95% CI, 3.6%-16.8%) less person-time in these stages, respectively, than white MSM ≥50 years of age. Among MSM aged 40-49 years, blacks spent 9.8% (95% CI, 2.4%-16.5%) and 11.9% (95% CI, 3.8%-19.3%) less person-time on ART and virally suppressed, respectively, than whites.ConclusionsRacial/ethnic differences in HIV care persist in specific populations defined by sex, age, and sexual HIV acquisition risk. Clinical and public health interventions that jointly target these demographic factors are needed.

BackgroundAdults with HIV have an increased burden of non-AIDS-defining cancers, myocardial infarction, end-stage liver disease, and end-stage renal disease. The objective of this study was to estimate the population attributable fractions (PAFs) of preventable or modifiable HIV-related and traditional risk factors for non-AIDS-defining cancers, myocardial infarction, end-stage liver disease, and end-stage renal disease outcomes.MethodsWe included participants receiving care in academic and community-based outpatient HIV clinical cohorts in the USA and Canada from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2014, who contributed to the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design and who had validated non-AIDS-defining cancers, myocardial infarction, end-stage liver disease, or end-stage renal disease outcomes. Traditional risk factors were tobacco smoking, hypertension, elevated total cholesterol, type 2 diabetes, renal impairment (stage 4 chronic kidney disease), and hepatitis C virus and hepatitis B virus infections. HIV-related risk factors were low CD4 count (400 copies per mL), and history of a clinical AIDS diagnosis. PAFs and 95% CIs were estimated to quantify the proportion of outcomes that could be avoided if the risk factor was prevented.FindingsIn each of the study populations for the four outcomes (1405 of 61 500 had non-AIDS-defining cancer, 347 of 29 515 had myocardial infarctions, 387 of 35 044 had end-stage liver disease events, and 255 of 35 620 had end-stage renal disease events), about 17% were older than 50 years at study entry, about 50% were non-white, and about 80% were men. Preventing smoking would avoid 24% (95% CI 13-35) of these cancers and 37% (7-66) of the myocardial infarctions. Preventing elevated total cholesterol and hypertension would avoid the greatest proportion of myocardial infarctions: 44% (30-58) for cholesterol and 42% (28-56) for hypertension. For liver disease, the PAF was greatest for hepatitis C infection (33%; 95% CI 17-48). For renal disease, the PAF was greatest for hypertension (39%; 26-51) followed by elevated total cholesterol (22%; 13-31), detectable HIV RNA (19; 9-31), and low CD4 cell count (13%; 4-21).InterpretationThe substantial proportion of non-AIDS-defining cancers, myocardial infarction, end-stage liver disease, and end-stage renal disease outcomes that could be prevented with interventions on traditional risk factors elevates the importance of screening for these risk factors, improving the effectiveness of prevention (or modification) of these risk factors, and creating sustainable care models to implement such interventions during the decades of life of adults living with HIV who are receiving care.FundingNational Institutes of Health, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the US Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, the US Health Resources and Services Administration, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long Term Care, and the Government of Alberta.

Background: Providers caring for adolescents and young adults with HIV (AYA-HIV) mostly base their adherence counseling during clinical encounters on clinical judgment and expectations of patients' medication adherence. There is currently no data on provider predictions of viral suppression for AYA-HIV. We aimed to assess the accuracy of provider predictions of patients' viral suppression status compared to viral load results. Methods: Providers caring for AYA-HIV were asked to predict the likelihood of viral suppression of patients before a clinical encounter and give reasons for their predictions. Provider predictions were compared to actual viral load measurements of patients. Patient data were abstracted from electronic health records. The final analysis included 9 providers, 28 patients, and 34 observations of paired provider predictions and viral load results. Results: Provider prediction accuracy of viral suppression was low (59%, Cohen's Kappa = 0.16). Provider predictions of lack of viral suppression were based on nonadherence to medications, new patient status, or structural vulnerabilities (e.g., unstable housing). Anticipated viral suppression was based on medication adherence, history of viral suppression, and the presence of family or other social forms of support. Conclusions: Providers have difficulty accurately predicting viral suppression among AYA-HIV and may base their counseling on incorrect assumptions. Rapid point-of-care viral load testing may provide opportunities to improve counseling provided during the clinical encounter. Plain Language Summary: Accuracy of Provider Predictions of Viral Suppression among Adolescents and Young Adults with HIV in an HIV Clinical Program Providers caring for adolescents and young adults with HIV (AYA-HIV) mostly base their adherence counseling during clinical encounters on clinical judgment and expectations of patients' medication adherence. Currently, no data exist on provider predictions of viral suppression for AYA-HIV. We aimed to assess the accuracy of provider predictions of patients' viral suppression compared to viral load results. Providers caring for AYA-HIV were asked to predict the likelihood of viral suppression of patients before a clinical encounter with reasons for their predictions. Provider predictions were compared to actual viral load measurements of patients. Patient data were abstracted from electronic health records. The final analysis included nine providers, 28 patients, and 34 observations of paired provider predictions and viral load results. Provider prediction accuracy of viral suppression was low (59%, Cohen's Kappa=0.16). Provider predictions of lack of viral suppression were based on non-adherence to medications, new patient status, or structural vulnerabilities (e.g., unstable housing). Anticipated viral suppression was based on medication adherence, history of viral suppression, and presence of family or other social forms of support. Providers have difficulty predicting viral suppression among AYA-HIV and may base counseling on incorrect assumptions. Rapid point-of-care viral load testing may provide opportunities to improve counseling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]